· 个股论点
涉及标的： $AMD$CIFR$CRWV$META$NVDA$TSM
问得极好，我关于谷歌TPU（张量处理单元）有一个非常详尽且微妙的论点。 总结：真正需要担心的是，如果TPU和AMD在长期表现上优于$NVDA，导致人们**偏好**其他GPU并转而购买它们。而不是因为$NVDA的GPU卖光了，被迫去买替代品。 但这只是简版。目前的情况就像$AMD： 它是$NVDA潜在的竞争替代品，短期内对基本面影响不大。 这对$NVDA专属云（如$CRWV）和$NVDA自身（例如$META可能会购买TPU）构成长期逆风。但其中的微妙之处在于，$NVDA受限于GPU产能，否则$META可能根本不会去买任何TPU。 短期/中期对盈利影响不大。中期对$TSM、像$CIFR这样的 Colo（数据中心）提供商、以及GPU无关的云提供商构成顺风。 $NVDA刚经历了一个爆发性的季度，Q4预测也极其惊人。直接看那些营收预测就好。 所以我说的微妙之处在于：人们买$AMD和TPU是因为产能受限。$NVDA生产的任何东西都能售罄。 如果$NVDA生产的任何东西都卖不完，那时你才需要担心逆风和$NVDA的故事。
Amazing question, so I have a really long nuanced thesis regarding Google TPUs. SUMMARY: The thing to be worried about is if TPUs and AMD outperform $NVDA long term, so people **PREFER** other GPUs and buy them instead. Not because they ran out of $NVDA GPUs to buy and are forced to go get alternatives. But this is a TLDR. Right now it's like $AMD: Potential competitive alternative to $NVDA, not much of an impact near term to fundamentals. This is a long term headwind against NVDA specific-clouds ( $CRWV ) and $NVDA itself (eg. how $META might buy TPUs ). But part of that nuance is because $NVDA is constrained on how much GPUs they can produce lol, otherwise $META might not just buy any TPUs. Short-term/mid-term it's not very material to earnings. Medium term tailwind for $TSM, colo providers like $CIFR, GPU agnostic cloud providers. $NVDA just had a blowout quarter and absolutely insane Q4 projections. Just go off those revenue projections. SO the nuance what I'm trying to say is people buy $AMD, TPUs because they're capacity straigned. $NVDA sells out of Anything they produce. If $NVDA can't sell out of anything they produce, then that's where you get worried about the headwinds and $NVDA story.