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博主调侃其他博主出现在同一处，语气轻松。
@Neat_Lama @soulbiri1 @platochi 看到 @DeepValueBagger 和 @RJCcapital 也在那里，真是可爱！
英文原文
@Neat_Lama @soulbiri1 @platochi its cute how @DeepValueBagger and @RJCcapital are on there too now!
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认为META和NBIS被低估，建议维持现有持仓。
@mcwalker747 @retail_mourinho 两者都被低估了，我会保持对 $META 和 $NBIS 的现有持仓不变。
英文原文
@mcwalker747 @retail_mourinho Both are undervalued I’d just keep positions in $META and $NBIS as is
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指出Arbe双业务模式，建议Robotaxi赛道对标而非跨业务比较。
@Sandeman52 提醒一下，Arbe Robotics ($ARBE) 拥有两种商业模式。在这条推文中，你将 Waymo 与 Arbe 的自动驾驶食品配送板块进行了比较。 更恰当的比较应该是 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）对 Robotaxi。 例如，在 FSD（完全自动驾驶）L4 级别、运营规模（例如 Arbe 与 $UBER 在德克萨斯州的启动）等方面的差异。
英文原文
@Sandeman52 Just a heads up, Avride has two business models. In this post you were comparing Waymo with Avride’s autonomous food delivery section. Better comparison would be robotaxi vs robotaxi. Eg. Differences in fsd-level 4, operational scale (eg. Avride launch in Texas with $UBER).
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看好$NBIS长期表现，认为其将摆脱短期波动大幅跑赢。
$NBIS 刚刚经历了一段“修炼期”，此前被它最亲密的朋友 Macrosuke 背叛。 我坚信在未来的一两个月内，凭借新获得的“剧情护甲”，它将强势复苏。 在之前大幅盈利后，我的持仓目前接近成本价。但只要你的仓位没有被强制平仓，长期来看它应该会大幅跑赢大盘。
英文原文
$NBIS is just in its training arc after being betrayed by its closest friend Macrosuke. Strong faith it will recover with newfound plot armor in the upcoming month or two. I’m around cost average now after being up a ton but as long as you didn’t get margined out of your position, long term it should heavy outperform.
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感谢粉丝，认为评论区讨论有助于深入理解各公司差异。
@retail_mourinho 谢谢！ 我也很喜欢评论区讨论进一步凸显了 $CRWV、$NBIS、$CIFR、$DGXX 等公司之间的细微差别。 这让学习过程更有趣，对话也更引人入胜。
英文原文
@retail_mourinho Thanks! I also like how a lot of the nuances between each company like $CRWV, $NBIS, $CIFR, $DGXX and others get highlighted further in comment section discussions Makes for more engaging learning + conversations
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$FLY 为情绪驱动型标的，待中程飞行器推出后市值有望翻倍。
是的，$FLY 是 2026 年的标的，只需持有直到可重复使用中程飞行器推出。此外，它是一只高贝塔值股票，单日波动可达 20%。 如果我没记错，诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司参与了“金穹顶”项目，我认为人们尚未将这一点与 $FLY 联系起来。 其营收尚不足以支撑市值，因此在中程飞行器问世前，它主要是一只情绪驱动型股票。 如果他们继 SpaceX 之后推出第二款可重复使用中程飞行器，我会非常惊讶其市值会低于 100 亿美元（目前为 25 亿美元）。
英文原文
Yeah $FLY is 2026 play, just need to bag hold until reusable medium lift comes out. Also another high beta stock capable of moving 20% in a day. Northrop if I remember correctly was in the golden dome project and I don’t think people are making the association with fly yet. Doesn’t really have the revenue to back up marketcap so it’s largely a sentiment stock until medium lift. I would be extremely surprised if the marktcap was under $10B ($2.5B now) if they made the second reusable medium lift after SpaceX
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提及NBIS Q2财报电话会议中的口头信息难以确证。
@OperationATM $NBIS 2025年第二季度财报电话会议。是的，这只是口头提及，所以很难确切了解 https://t.co/qT9O2LWHMB
英文原文
@OperationATM $NBIS Q2 2025 earnings call. Yeah it’s only mentioned verbally so it’s a bit hard to know https://t.co/qT9O2LWHMB
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认为$NBIS因FSD收入预期而被严重低估。
@EarningsMindset 是的，管理层已经预测在2-3年内，来自Avride FSD（完全自动驾驶）的收入将达到数十亿美元。对于$NBIS来说，这被极度低估了。 https://t.co/h8KxcTzCy8
英文原文
@EarningsMindset Yeah management already projected few billion in revenue from Avride FSD in 2-3 years. Extremely underpriced for $NBIS https://t.co/h8KxcTzCy8
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Scale被Meta收购后，AI训练平台用户被迫转向NBIS等替代品
@RKLBMan 还有那个同比增长150%的AI训练/标注平台呢 lol 这是在Scale刚以290亿美元估值被$META收购之后——现在被迫转向$NBIS等其他平台的使用者（超大规模云服务商）
英文原文
@RKLBMan And the AI training/labeling platform growing 150% y/y lol This is after Scale just got bought by $META at a $29B valuation -> hyperscalers that used it now are forced into other platforms like $NBIS
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NBIS因自动驾驶出租车业务被低估，市值仅210亿。
是的，完全不明白为什么人们不更多地讨论 $NBIS 的自动驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）业务，毕竟他们拥有第四级自动驾驶（Level 4 FSD）能力，且将在几天内启动。人们购买 $TSLA 或 $GOOGL 以获取相关敞口，但 $NBIS 市值仅为 210 亿美元，除了自动驾驶出租车外，还有许多其他公司和核心业务相伴。它可能是市场上最被误解且被低估的成长型公司之一。不幸的是，金融圈（finx）只是一个微小的泡沫，即使这里的人开始理解，其他地方大多数人甚至不知道 Nebius 拥有一家已研发 7 年的自动驾驶出租车公司。
英文原文
Yeah, zero clue why people aren’t talking more about $NBIS for robotaxis when they have fsd level 4 and are launching in a few days. People buy $TSLA or $GOOGL for exposure, but $NBIS is just sitting there at a $21B marketcap with many other companies + core businesses to go alongside robotaxis. Probably one of the most misunderstood and undervalued growth companies in the market. Unfortunately finx is a tiny bubble so even if people start to understand it here, majority of people elsewhere wouldn’t even know Nebius owns a robotaxi company that’s been in development for the past 7 years
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看好NBIS高弹性及长期增长潜力，认为当前市场低估其价值。
是的，$NBIS 是一只极高贝塔（Beta）的股票，能在1周内波动30-40%。特别是到了12月，如果有降息+圣诞行情（如果没有日元套利交易（Yen Carry Trade）的干扰），可能会直线上涨。但即使 $NBIS 涨到160美元我也不会卖出，因为这更多关乎市场提前多久给股票定价。（目前市场戴着眼罩，看向错误的方向）2026年的前瞻数据（Forward Numbers）将非常强劲，2027年更是未知。当你的核心业务可能在两年内达到130亿美元+的年经常性收入（ARR），且所有副业业务同比增长100%+时，未来不久很容易成为一家1000亿美元+的公司。
英文原文
Yeah $NBIS is an extremely high beta stock capable of moving 30-40% in 1 week timeframes. Especially come December when there’s a rate cut + Santa rally (if there’s no yen carry trade shenanigans), could see a straight line up. But even if $NBIS were $160 I wouldn’t sell it because it’s more of how long ahead the market prices in a stock. (Right now markets are wearing blindfolds and looking the wrong direction) Forward numbers are just blowout for 2026, and who knows for 2027. When your core business is probably doing $13B+ ARR in two years and all your side businesses are scaling 100%+ Y/Y, could easily be a $100B+ company in the near future.
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博主感谢粉丝并重申对NBIS长期逻辑的信心。
感恩节快乐，Kohai！我会永远感激你打印出来的冰箱备忘录。抱歉，过去一个月市场对于像 $NBIS 这样的股票并不友好。如果我在帖子中提到的股票跌破了我的成本均价，我总是感到非常内疚。但我坚信，从长远来看，我的投资逻辑在方向上是正确的。
英文原文
Happy Thanksgiving Kohai! I will always appreciate the fridge printout you made. Sorry markets haven’t been to friendly to a lot of the stocks like $NBIS in the past month. I always feel really bad if I post about something and it goes below my cost average too. But I have strong conviction that my thesis is directionally correct in the longer run.
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博主称能凭记忆精准回忆大量公司的财务数据。
@Perugius__ 不，全是背下来的！对于我研究过的低百位数家公司，我有一种奇怪的能力，能具体回忆起财务方面的各种数据，比如大量的营收数字、增长率、以往的估值、特定日期的随机涨跌、交易规模等。
英文原文
@Perugius__ Nope it’s all memorized! A lot of the revenue numbers, growth rates, valuations previously, random dips/spikes on certain days, deal sizes, etc. across low hundred figure of companies I’ve had a strange ability to just recall it all specifically for financial stuff.
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通过拆解子公司业务与高增长数据，论证 $NBIS 分部估值被低估。
没有大家想的那么久！ 我对过去提到的任何与金融相关的内容都有极其敏锐的记忆。所以我只是即兴拼凑线索，然后做一些额外的研究来核实 $NBIS 的事实。 我记得对于 Avride，人们一直将其与小型食品配送车联系在一起，所以想发布一篇关于自动驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）方面（这是主要机会）的更新、增长、机会以及他们具体业务的深度分析。 对于 Toloka，人们只是提起这个名字，但并不理解其估值、增长、客户或具体业务。所以想发这篇帖子。 Clickhouse 可能是大家最了解的一个，但人们没有意识到许多 Nebius 子公司的同比增长率都是三位数（通常 30-45% 就算很好了），所以 140% 是非常高的 lol。 当我提到分部加总估值（Sum of Part Valuation）被极度低估时，帮助人们自己得出这个结论，而不是只听我的一面之词，会更有帮助。所以我只是尝试提供我内部思考的论证。
英文原文
Not as long as people think! I have an extremely sharp memory of anything financial related that gets mentioned in the past. So I just kind of piece things together on the fly and then do some additional research to double check facts for $NBIS. I remember for Avride people kept associating it with the small food delivery carts so wanted to post a deeper dive into the robotaxi aspect (which is the main opportunity) updates, growth, opportunity + what they do. For Toloka people just drop the name but don’t understand valuations, growth, customers, or what they do exactly. So wanted to make this post. Clickhouse is probably the most understood one but people don’t realize many of Nebius subsidiaries are growing triple digits Y/Y (usually 30-45% is good) so 140% is extremely high lol. When I talk about sum of part valuation being extremely undervalued, it helps for people to come to that conclusion themselves rather than taking my word for it. So I just try to provide the argument I’m thinking about internally
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解析$NBIS旗下Avride与Toloka的高增长潜力，指出市场低估其子公司价值。
$NBIS 即将超越 $CRWV，原因如下： 在 $TSLA、$AMZN、$GOOGL 和现代汽车中，Nebius [ $NBIS ] 拥有美国仅有的 4 家 FSD-LVL 4 级自动驾驶出租车公司之一：Avride。 人们还不知道的是： $NBIS 拥有 Toloka，其同比增长 140%。 Toloka 被 Anthropic、Hugging Face、$AMZN、$MSFT、ServiceNow 和 $SHOP 用于训练人工智能模型，在杰夫·贝佐斯风险投资部门的最新一轮融资中，Toloka 估值约为 7 亿至 12 亿美元。 Nebius 拥有多数股权（约 60%），但市场错误定价了其子公司与其核心业务一同以极高速率增长的事实。 虽然不如 Avride 或 Clickhouse 具有主导地位，但鉴于其增长率，Toloka 代表了 Nebius 投资论点中的重要组成部分。 我们最近看到 Scale AI（估值 290 亿美元）被 $META 收购（技术上约 49%），以此了解市场规模，并且由于利益冲突担忧，$GOOGL 和 OpenAI 的客户流失，这增加了 Toloka 的价值。据报道，Meta 收购后，Google 和 OpenAI 切断了与 Scale 的联系。仅 Google 在 2025 年为 Scale 预算了 2 亿美元。即使捕获其中 10-20% 的转移支出，也将实质性提升 Toloka 的收入。 管理层指引 2025 年收入为 50-70 亿美元。牛市情景假设他们达到 70 亿美元以上（上限或超过）。鉴于他们在 2024 年增长了 140%，如果企业交易转化，这并非不合理。计算如下：70 亿美元 × 25 倍 = 175 亿美元。若为 80 亿美元且乘数为 25-30 倍（若势头异常强劲），则接近 20-25 亿美元。 但鉴于其增长率，我们可能会看到： 基准情景（12-15 倍乘数）：7-10 亿美元（当前）-> 9-13 亿美元（1 年后）。 牛市情景 20-25 倍：12-17.5 亿美元（当前）-> 15-25 亿美元（1 年后）。 2024 年收入同比增长 140% 至约 2640 万美元，2025 年指引为 5-7 亿美元（同比增长 90-165%）。在一般牛市情景下，我们可能在 1 年内看到额外约 14 亿美元的子公司价值添加到分部加总估值中。 多年后，如果公司和市场增长，该价值可能单独带来 30 亿、60 亿、90 亿美元。 简而言之，市场仍在将 Nebius 的子公司估值为缓慢增长、商品化的业务，而非以三位数速率高价值复利的业务。真正的超额收益来自投资者理解市场错误定价了 $NBIS 这一篮子超高速增长公司。 $NBIS 拥有多个三位数增长的子公司，受益于并行价值创造：每项业务独立扩展，但其进展强化了母公司的估值。
英文原文
$NBIS is about to leapfrog $CRWV, here's why: Among $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, and Hyundai, Nebius [ $NBIS ] owns 1 of only 4 FSD-LVL 4 US Robotaxi companies: Avride. What people also don't know is this: $NBIS owns Toloka, growing 140% Y/Y. Used by Anthropic, Hugging Face, $AMZN, $MSFT, Servicenow, and $SHOP for training artificial intelligence models, Toklo is likely valued around $700M-$1.2B in its latest round by Jeff Bezos's venture arm. Nebius owns a majority stake (roughly ~60%), but the market is mispricing how their subsidiary companies grows at extreme rates alongside their core business. While not as dominant as Avride or Clickhouse, Toloka represents a meaningful piece the Nebius investment thesis given their growth rate. We’ve seen Scale AI ( $29B ) get acquired by $META recently (technically ~49%) to get a sense of market size, and we’ve seen customers from $GOOGL and OpenAI defect due to conflict of interest concerns, given added value to Toloka. Google and OpenAI reportedly cut ties with Scale after Meta's acquisition. Google alone had $200M budgeted for Scale in 2025. Even capturing 10-20% of that displaced spend would materially boost Toloka's revenue. Management guided $50-70M for 2025. The bull case assumes they hit $70M+ (the upper bound or exceed it). Given they grew 140% in 2024, this isn't unreasonable if enterprise deals convert. The math: $70M × 25x = $1.75B. At $80M with 25-30x (if momentum is exceptionally strong), you get toward $2-2.5B. But given their growth rate we’ll likely see: Base case (12-15x multiple): $700M-$1B (currently) -> $900M-$1.3B 1Y forward. Bull Case 20-25x: $1.2-1.75B (currently) -> $1.5-2.5B 1Y forward Revenue grew 140% year-over-year in 2024 to approximately $26.4 million, with 2025 guidance of $50-70 million (90-165% Y/Y growth). And with a general bull-case sceanrio, we might see an additional ~$1.4B in subsidiary value added to Sum of Parts in 1 year time. In multiple years time, that value might bring in $3B, $6B, $9B alone if the both the company and market grows. In short, the market is still valuing Nebius’s subsidiaries as if they were slow-moving, commoditized businesses instead of high-value compounding at triple-digit rates. The true alpha from investors understanding that the market is mispricing $NBIS basket of hyper-growth companies. $NBIS with multiple triple-digit-growth subsidiaries benefits from parallel value creation: each business scales independently, but their progress reinforces the parent company's valuation.
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指出市场严重低估 $NBIS 的 L4 自动驾驶业务及其与 Uber 合作的巨大潜力。
我看到的关于 Avride 的帖子主要围绕小型配送机器人！真正的价值来自于 $NBIS 自 2017 年以来一直在开发的自动驾驶 FSD（完全自动驾驶系统）L4 级部门。 人们把 Clickhouse 当作金蛋，但真正的 $300B+ 美元机会在于 Avride 与 $UBER 大规模合作，与 Waymo / $TSLA 竞争。 我想指出 $NBIS 的非对称上行潜力，通过深入挖掘其分部加总价值，市场对此严重、严重低估。 这不仅仅是“估值为 $X”然后打个 40% 的折扣，它还将以极其荒谬的高速增长，就像其核心业务一样。
英文原文
I've seen posts about Avride but they're mainly around the small delivery robots! The real value comes from the self-driving FSD level 4 division that $NBIS has been developing since 2017. People namedrop Clickhouse a the golden egg, but the $300B+ dollar opportunity is with Avride + $UBER at scale competing vs Waymo / $TSLA. Wanted to point out the asymmetrical upside with $NBIS by doing a deeper dive about sum of parts that the market severely, severely undervalues. It's not just "valued at $X" and slash a 40% discount on it, it's also about to grow at extremely absurd rates like their core business.
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NBIS旗下Avride具L4自动驾驶能力，有望成高增长黑马。
精彩的帖子。如果在日本庆祝的话，感恩节快乐！ 核心论点是，Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）是一个数万亿美元规模的巨大市场，人们正在通过投资 $TSLA 和 $GOOGL 来寻求该领域的敞口。 然而，在特斯拉、亚马逊、谷歌、现代这五大主要玩家中，鲜为人知的另一家是 $NBIS 旗下的 Avride，它拥有 Level 4（L4）级完全自动驾驶技术。经过7年的开发和研发投资，该公司正与 $UBER 一起迈向商业化，并与 Waymo 和 Tesla 展开竞争。 因此，如果 Nebius 在核心的数据中心业务之外，还拥有一家并行且超高速增长的无名子公司，它将成为市场上增长最快的公司之一。
英文原文
素晴らしい投稿ですね。そして、日本で祝っているなら、ハッピーサンクスギビング！ 主張の核心は、ロボタクシーは数兆ドル規模の巨大市場であり、その分野へのエクスポージャーを求めて人々は $TSLA や $GOOGL に投資しているという点です。 しかし、テスラ、アマゾン、グーグル、ヒュンダイの5つの主要プレーヤーのうち、多くの人が知らないもう1社、 $NBIS 傘下の Avride はレベル4の完全自動運転を持っています。そしてこの企業は、7年にわたる開発と研究開発投資を経て $UBER と共に商用化へ向けて動き出し、Waymo や Tesla と競争しようとしています。 このように、コアであるデータセンタービジネスと並行して超高速で成長する無名の子会社を抱えている場合、Nebius は市場でも屈指の高成長企業となるのです。
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刷社交媒体会削弱工作动力，适度无聊有助于探索人生意义。
从科学角度来看，如果你一天开始时通过无脑刷 X 获取大量多巴胺，相比之下，全天其他事情（如高效工作）就会变得没那么有趣。 顺便提一下，有一篇关于西方文化中应用/社交媒体方面的《哈佛商业评论》文章写得很好： 亚瑟·布鲁克斯（ARTHUR BROOKS）： “你需要感到无聊。如果你从不感到无聊，你的生活将缺乏意义，你会更加抑郁。我们不喜欢无聊。为什么无聊这么糟糕？嗯，因为默认模式网络（Default Mode Network）会让我们思考一些可能有点不舒服的事情。 当你什么都不想，让思绪漫游并思考，例如你人生意义的大问题时。 当你感到无聊时，你会去面对那些令人不安的存在主义问题。事实证明这非常重要，非常有益。 我们社会中抑郁和焦虑爆发的原因之一，是因为人们实际上不知道自己生活的意义，这在以前的几代人中更是如此。 大量数据证明了这一点，而且我们甚至没有去审视。 如果你掌握无聊这项技能，你可能会更擅长面对围绕意义、幸福和工作的更大人生问题。”
英文原文
Scientifically if you start your brain off the day with a lot of dopamine from doomscrolling X, it makes other things less interesting in comparison, such as productive work throughout the day. On a side note there's a great Harvard Business review article about the apps/social media side when it comes to western culture: ARTHUR BROOKS: "You need to be bored. You will have less meaning and you will be more depressed if you never are bored. We don’t like boredom. Why is boredom so bad? Well, because the default mode network makes us think about things that might be kind of uncomfortable. When you think about nothing while your mind wanders and thinks about, for example, big questions of meaning in your life. What does my life mean? You go to uncomfortable existential questions when you’re bored. That turns out to be incredibly important, incredibly good. One of the reasons we have such an explosion of depression and anxiety in our society today is because people actually don’t know the meaning of their lives, much less so in previous generations. Tons of data show this, and furthermore, we’re not even looking. If you embrace the skill of boredom, you might get better at confronting life’s bigger questions around meaning, happiness, and work."
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博主讽刺NBIS靠卖周边胜过IREN和CIFR
@babyfolio 我不同意，$NBIS 显然是赢家，相比 $IREN 和 $CIFR，Nebius 的帽子周边商品将带来多少额外收入。
英文原文
@babyfolio disagree, $NBIS is clearly the winner compared to $IREN and $CIFR due to how much added revenue the Nebius hat merch will bring in
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看好$NBIS极高增速及低市值潜力，类比Waymo扩张前景。
我见过$HOOD，也见过$META在IPO时的表现。除了$NVDA可能之外，我从未见过任何单一公司能像$NBIS这样以如此惊人的速度扩张。 在年经常性收入(ARR)已达10亿美元以上且同比增长300%+的基础上，还能实现700%+的同比增长，这种增长速度简直高得令人难以置信。 这仅仅是核心业务的表现。 在我上面的帖子中，Avride正处于像Waymo与$UBER合作那样大规模扩张的边缘。如果他们在德克萨斯州的启动顺利，我们可能会在地图上的各个地方看到它的出现。 很难给出目标价。我通常不会为单只股票唱多，但我从未见过一只具有如此荒谬高潜力的股票，其市值却如此之低。
英文原文
I've seen $HOOD, I've seen $META at IPO. Aside from maybe $NVDA, I've never seen any single company scale this incredibly fast before compared to $NBIS. Growing 700%+ Y/Y, when you're already doing $1B+ ARR from 300%+ Y/Y growth, is just unspeakably high growth. That's just the core business alone. In my post above, Avride is at the precipice of scaling like Waymo with $UBER. If their Texas launch goes well, we might just see this pop up everywhere around the map. Hard to give a price target. I normally don't bullpost a single stock but I haven't seen such a stupidly high potential stock sitting at a low marketcap before.
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计划通过分部估值分析 Clickhouse 潜力，以阐释 Nebius 价值。
Clickhouse 确实非常强大(OP)，但我尚未对其进行单独分析，因为 $NBIS 仅持有 28% 的股份。不过，我完全能看到 Clickhouse 未来成为一家市值 500 亿美元的公司，我可能会写一篇后续帖子，涵盖所有分部估值(Sum-of-Parts)，以帮助人们理解 Nebius 的价值主张。
英文原文
clickhouse is pretty OP, but haven't made an individual analysis on that yet since $NBIS only owns 28%. But i could definitely see clickhouse becoming a $50B company one day, i'll probably made a follow up post and cover all sum-of-parts to help people understand nebius value proposition
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看好NBIS两年期200美元看涨期权
@Perugius__ 哦，是的，对于 $NBIS 来说，将几个月到期的期权换成两年后到期的期权，这种风险管理没问题。 我强烈认为 2027 年 12 月到期的 $200 看涨期权会行权！
英文原文
@Perugius__ Oh yeah that's fine risk management for $NBIS swapping out few month expiry to 2 years out. Strongly believe Dec 2027 $200 calls will hit!
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NBIS旗下自动驾驶子公司Avride被严重低估，具备投资潜力。
是的，$NBIS 是一个迷人的分部加总(Sum-of-Parts)估值脱钩案例，其隐藏资产——高增长的自动驾驶Robotaxi子公司 Avride，在母公司市值中被严重低估。这在公众中鲜为人知。但所有人都渴望通过 Waymo 或 $TSLA 获得 Robotaxi 领域的敞口。这仅仅是 Nebius 进行的众多副线任务之一，我本打算写一系列文章介绍其他项目，但鉴于我是自动驾驶汽车的粉丝，我个人最喜欢 Avride。
英文原文
Yeah $NBIS is a fascinating sum-of-parts disconnect example where a hidden asset yet high growth self-driving robotaxi subsidiary Avride, is severely undervalued within the parent company's MC. It's very little known to the public. But everyone is dying to get exposure to robotaxi players looking at Waymo or $TSLA. This is just one of the side quests Nebius is doing, I was going to do a series on the others, but I personally liked Avride the most given how I'm a fan of self-driving cars.
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分析Robotaxi竞争格局：Waymo领先，Uber联手Avride和WeRide应对巨头威胁。
欢迎反驳关于 $TSLA 是 FSD SAE 2级自动驾驶的观点。特斯拉被归类为2级，是因为其 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）始终有人远程监控。埃隆正在追求一个更宏大的计划，即采用摄像头+非地理围栏解决方案，所以我做的并非简单的同类比较。以下是三点看法：1. 如果他能制造出可重复使用的大型太空火箭，我毫不怀疑他最终能在地球上实现他的计划。2. Waymo 明显领先于其他所有竞争者。3. 我的观点是，来自 $GOOGL、$TSLA、$AMZN 等万亿美元市值公司的个位数 Robotaxi 玩家正在与 $UBER 竞争。Uber 视此为威胁，因此正与 $NBIS 的 Avride（美国）、WeRide（中东、中国）合作，以在明年扩大规模。
英文原文
Feel free to dispute the point that $TSLA is FSD SAE level 2 automation. Tesla is classified as level 2, because in their robotaxis, you have people remotely behind the wheel at all times. Elon is pursuing a more ambitious plan with cameras + non-geofenced solution so it's not an apples to apples comparison I'm making. That being three things: 1. I have no doubt Elon can achieve what he's planning in due time back in planet earth if he's able to create large reusable rockets that go into space. 2. Waymo is clearly ahead of all other players. 3. Point I'm making is there's single digit robotaxi players that all come from trillion dollar company exposure in $GOOGL, $TSLA, $AMZN that compete vs $UBER. Uber sees this as a threat so they're working with $NBIS Avride (United States), WeRide (Middle East, China) to scale it up over the next year.
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对比巨头与Avride在自动驾驶出租车领域的竞争格局及Uber布局。
🎯 对我观点的评论一针见血。人们将自动驾驶出租车(Robotaxis)视为一个万亿美元以上的市场。 $GOOGL Waymo 正在快速扩张并拥有先发优势。$TSLA 押注低成本+摄像头以实现大规模完全自动驾驶(FSD)出租车，但尚未完全到位。 人们通过购买万亿美元市值的 $TSLA 或 $GOOGL 来获取这种自动驾驶出租车敞口。 然而，有一家市值仅 210 亿美元的小公司 Avride，它是少数几家 Level 4 开发者之一（自 Yandex 以来已开发 7 年以上）。 Uber 认为 Tesla + Waymo 构成巨大威胁，因此通过与 $NBIS Avride 合作进行扩张（因此有 3.75 亿美元投资+合作），我们可以看到这将在未来一年与其核心业务一起极其迅速地扩大规模。
英文原文
🎯 Spot on commentary of my point. People see robotaxis as a trillion + dollar market. $GOOGL Waymo is expanding rapidly and has first mover advantage. $TSLA is banking on low cost + cameras to achieve FSD robotaxis at scale but aren't quite there yet. And people buy $TSLA or $GOOGL for that self-driving car robotaxi exposure through trillion dollar companies. Yet, sitting in some small $21B marketcap company is Avride, one of the only Level 4 developers out there (that's been in development for 7+ years since Yandex). Uber sees an immense threat from Tesla + Waymo so they're expanding with $NBIS Avride (hence the $375m investment + partnership) and we can see this scale up extremely rapidly over the next year alongside their core business.
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Nebius核心业务高增，其L4级Robotaxi子公司Avride被市场低估。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 的核心业务简直疯狂。年收入(ARR)在一年内实现700%以上的同比增长，达到70-90亿美元以上。 更疯狂的是这一点。 其子公司可以超越主营业务 🤯 原因如下： $GOOGL Waymo、$TSLA、$AMZN Zoox、Motional、$NBIS Avride 是目前仅有的5家美国完全自动驾驶(FSD) Robotaxi 公司。 是的，$NBIS Avride 是其中之一。 - 它是4家拥有L4级完全自动驾驶（与Waymo同级）的公司之一。 - 它是3家实现L4级FSD商业化的公司之一（Motional仍处于研发阶段）。 作为参考，Tesla [ $TSLA ] 的Robotaxi目前仅为L2级（需要人工监督）。 人们希望购买Robotaxi公司，因为Cathie Wood所说：“Robotaxi可能占 $TSLA 价值的90%）。 因此，他们通过 $3.6T 的 $GOOGL 和 $1.4T 的 $TSLA 等万亿美元公司来买入该板块的敞口。 但有一家L4级FSD Robotaxi公司即将通过 $UBER 与Waymo竞争： 那就是Avride，一家估值60亿美元的子公司，$NBIS 持有其83%的股份，而市场完全忽略了它。Avride 是 该60亿美元估值基于Seeking Alpha分析师报告（2025年8月），将Avride与Nuro的E轮融资估值进行对标。仅在2025年1月，其估值估计为34亿美元，短短6个月内几乎翻倍（反映了Avride与Uber和现代合作的势头）。 支持当前估值的关键近期进展： - 2017年：Avride由Yandex自动驾驶集团创立 - 2017-2024年：研发... - 2024年10月：与Uber达成多年期配送机器人和Robotaxi合作伙伴关系 - 2025年3月：与现代签署L4级自动驾驶汽车联合开发谅解备忘录(MOU) - 2025年10月：获得Uber和Nebius高达3.75亿美元的战略投资 - 2025年底：在德克萨斯州达拉斯通过Uber推出Robotaxi 我们现在看到7年的研发开始商业化爬坡（像Waymo一样），今年通过 $UBER 实现。 你可以以 $NBIS 210亿美元市值的零头价格，获得这家超高速增长的L4级FSD Robotaxi公司。🚗 鉴于Avride同比增长三位数，且我们看到该公司在7年的资本支出投入研发后终于开始商业化，它在2年内估值远超Nebius当前市值的可能性非零。 我们曾看到Waymo从450亿美元市值（2024年10月，融资56亿美元）增长到2000亿美元以上（DA Davison建议的估值）。 Avride目前仅为60亿美元，是 $NBIS 市值的一小部分。但它正处于与 $UBER 合作的增长临界点，就像Waymo最初在旧金山起步但现在无处不在一样。 Nebius ( $NBIS ) 是市场中被误解的成长型公司。但作为投资者，尽早布局下一代公司才能获得最高回报
英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] core business is insanity. 700%+ Y/Y growth to $7-9B+ ARR in 1Y. What's more insane is this. Their subsidiary can outgrow their main business 🤯 Here's why: $GOOGL Waymo, $TSLA, $AMZN Zoox, Motional, $NBIS Avride are the only 5 FSD US Robotaxi companies right now. Yes $NBIS Avride is one of the 5. - And 1 of 4 with FSD Level 4 - fully driverless, the same level as Waymo. - And 1 of 3 that are commercialized with FSD level 4 (Motional is R&D phase) Tesla [ $TSLA ] robotaxis for perspective is only at Level 2 (requires human oversight). People want to buy robotaxi companies because as Cathie Wood puts it “Robotaxis could represent 90% of $TSLA ‘s value). So they buy exposure to the segment through trillion dollar companies like Waymo through the $3.6T $GOOGL and $1.4T $TSLA. But there's a Level 4 FSD robotaxi company that is just about to compete with Waymo through $UBER: That name is Avride, a $6 billion subsidiary company that $NBIS owns 83% of, and one that the market completely has missed. Avride is an The $6B valuation was based off a Seeking Alpha analyst report (August 2025) that benchmarked Avride against Nuro's Series E valuation. Just in Jan 2025 it was estimated to be valued at $3.4 billion, growing almost double in just 6 months time (reflecting Avride's momentum with Uber and Hyundai). Key recent developments supporting the current valuation: - 2017: Avride founded though Yandex Self Driving Group - 2017-2024: Development... - October 2024: Multi-year Uber partnership for delivery robots and robotaxis - March 2025: Hyundai MOU for co-development of Level 4 autonomous vehicles - October 2025: Up to $375 million in strategic investment from Uber and Nebius - By EOY 2025: Dallas Texas Robotaxi Launch with Uber We’re now seeing 7 years of R&D starting commercialization ramp (like Waymo), through $UBER this year. and you can get this hyper scaling self-driving FSD level 4 robotaxi company. As discounted spare change of $NBIS at a $21B marketcap. 🚗 Seeing how Avride is growing triple digits Y/Y and we’re seeing the company finally commercialize after 7 years of capex into research, there’s a nonzero chance it becomes valued way more than the Nebius current market cap in 2 years. We've seen Waymo grow from a $45B marketcap (October 2024, $5.6B raised) to over $200B+ (DA Davison suggested valuation). Avride is now only at $6B and a small change of $NBIS's marketcap. But it's at the precipice of growth with $UBER, just like how Waymo started out in SF but now it's everywhere. Nebius ( $NBIS ) is the misunderstood growth company in the market. But being early to the next generation companies is where the highest returns are made as an investor
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博主预告将发布关于NBIS的深入分析帖。
@95jG5OcU2mL0OCK 是的，我会再发一篇帖子解释今天关于 $NBIS 的原因。
英文原文
@95jG5OcU2mL0OCK Yes, I’ll make another post explaining why today on $NBIS
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看好传统云商，CRWV或成新云代表，板块成员间接受益。
鉴于数据的重要性，概率上更倾向于像 $ORCL 这样的联邦云(FedRamp)提供商以及像 $AMZN、$GOOGL 和 $MSFT 这样的传统超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers)。 $CRWV 可能是最有可能成为新云(Neocloud)代表的公司，但他们仍处于应用阶段。$NBIS 的可能性不大。 话虽如此，新云板块的其他成员也是间接受益者。
英文原文
Prob just fedramp providers like $ORCL and traditional hyperscalers like $AMZN, $GOOGL, and $MSFT given how critical the data is. $CRWV is probably the most likely Neocloud but they’re still in application phase. $NBIS is unlikely. That being said, other Neocloud sector members are indirect beneficiaries.
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梳理新云领域中小玩家定位，类比AI版AWS。
@AustranSkolSwft $WULF 作为像 $CIFR 一样的数据中心托管(Colo)服务商，属于新云(Neocloud)领域。$IREN 凭借带有 GPU 的全栈 IAAS 服务也归入此类。 但唯一的全服务纯新云玩家是 $CRWV 和 $NBIS。 不过它们都属于那个新类别：充当 AI 版 AWS 的小型参与者。
英文原文
@AustranSkolSwft $WULF is in the neocloud sector as a colo player like $CIFR. $IREN falls there too under full-stack IAAS with GPUs. Only full-service pure Neocloud would be $CRWV and $NBIS. But they're all under that new category of small players acting as AWS for AI.
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博主调侃英伟达新闻稿呼吁停止抛售股票
@nvidianewsroom $NVDA 新闻稿翻译： “求求你们别再卖我们的股票了” https://t.co/Mc0x8zpJqH
英文原文
@nvidianewsroom $NVDA Press Release Translation: "pls stop selling our stock" https://t.co/Mc0x8zpJqH