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Meta核心盈利强劲，AI支出争议属叙事，作者认为可轻松买入。
@DiscountedBTC 对于 $META，其核心盈利表现卓越，若忽略一次性税收影响，其每股收益(EPS)大幅超预期。这仅仅是关于人工智能资本支出(AI Capex)是陷入无底洞还是会产生投资回报率(ROI)的争论，但这只是市场叙事。对我来说，这是轻松买入的机会。
英文原文
@DiscountedBTC For $META their core earnings were stellar and if you ignore the one time tax they strongly beat EPS. It’s just an argument of whether AI capex is going into a black hole or will have ROI but that’s just narratives. Easy buy for me
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因IV低且看好复苏，博主倾向用看涨期权杠杆做多META。
@blu400_ 隐含波动率(IV)极低。我也可以买入数百万股，但使用看涨期权(Calls)可以用少量资本获得极高的杠杆。我也对复苏充满信心，这就是为什么我接受在 $META 上使用杠杆。
英文原文
@blu400_ IV is extremely low. I could buy millions in shares too but with calls, it’s really high leverage for low capital. I’m also confident on recovery which is why I’m fine with leverage on $META
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博主回应指出，将重新核实 $MQ 的最新情况。
@BarnieTaintpipe 好的，我会再仔细看看，谢谢指出。我之前关于 $MQ 的记忆可能有些偏差，正如你提到的，应该有更近况的更新。
英文原文
@BarnieTaintpipe All right I’ll take another look thanks for pointing that out. I was just going off memory for $MQ, but there were probably more recent updates as you mentioned
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看好META财报，认为股价下跌系税务影响，预计短期反弹。
@soulbiri1 是的，很好的买入机会，财报表现优异，股价下跌看起来是因为一次性税务影响。 我不喜欢其资本支出(capex)的投入，但这目前只是叙事层面的问题，因为人们都在为其他“七巨头(mag7)”的资本支出欢呼。 $META 可能在一两周内就会恢复。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yeah great buy, stellar earnings, looks off due to one-time tax. Don’t like capex spend but it’s just narrative at this point since people are cheering on other mag7 capex spend. $META will probably recover in a week or two
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不看好MQ因依赖Square，更看好DAVE。
@BarnieTaintpipe 我早就知道这两家公司了。凭直觉，我不看好 $MQ，因为如果 Cash App 是其客户，它就对 Square 存在单一依赖。此外，Square 未来也可以推出自己的卡片业务。 相比之下，我更喜欢 $DAVE。
英文原文
@BarnieTaintpipe I’m aware of them both already. Off the top of my head $MQ not a fan because singular dependency on Square if that was the customer for Cash App. Also they can launch their own card offerings in the future. $DAVE I liked a lot more
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对WLAC有信心，但指出SPAC IPO等待期长且正式申报时往往已晚。
@Edu4rdo26 我对 $WLAC 相当有信心，我只是说等待期很长，很多人没有耐心等待 SPAC IPO 期间。但一旦你等到正式申报，很多时候已经太晚了。
英文原文
@Edu4rdo26 Oh I’m pretty confident on $WLAC, I just said there’s a huge waiting period and lot of people don’t have patience to wait for the SPAC IPO period. But once you wait for the actual filing a lot of times it’s pretty late
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Meta 或短期回调，建议利用高流动性分批建仓。
@rioferdy838 $META 可能会经历为期两天的抛售，日内低点下跌 15% 或随后回到 650 美元。这就是为什么我说成本平均法（Cost Averaging）很重要。 通常财报发布后不会立即买入，但由于高流动性，Mag7 是个例外。 另外更正一下之前的帖子，是 2-6 天的反弹，而非完全恢复。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 $META might 2 day flush so -15% intraday low or back to $650 later. Which is why I said cost averaging is important. Usually you don’t buy right after earnings but Mag7 is an exception due to high liquidity. Also correction to post, 2-6 day recovery, not full recovery
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博主引用军事比喻，幽默回应关于坚守策略的质疑。
@DeepValueBagger 遵照您的指示。我正在坚守防线，但我身后的人正在抱怨。我该怎么办？ https://t.co/ZdrCKdwjbo
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Following your instructions. I’m holding the line but the people behind me are complaining. What do I do? https://t.co/ZdrCKdwjbo
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博主在META抛售中加仓看涨期权，视其为巨大机会。
1-2月期间，我在 $META 的看涨期权上增加了6张合约。去年4月也发生过同样的情况，当时花了2-6天才完全恢复。业绩超预期，基本面完好无损。关于资本支出(capex)的故事也一样。可能只是两天的抛售，所以我正在通过成本平均法(cost averaging)加仓，但这次抛售是一个巨大的机会。
英文原文
Added 6 figures in Jan-Feb $META calls. Same thing happened last year April and it took 2-6 days for full recovery. Earnings beat, fundamentals in tact. Same story about capex spend. Might be 2 day flush so cost averaging but this selloff is a huge opportunity. https://t.co/S3CwYsdaU4
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讨论$META看涨期权策略，倾向短期限以应对波动。
@gunnaosrs 是的，$META 的看涨期权(call options)看起来像是白送的钱，你的心态很对。不过我不会做大幅跳跃(leaps)，可能会选择期限更短的看涨期权，因为很多时候需要2-3天才能恢复。 我在想第二天(day-2)的抛售，或者如果今天盘中下跌15%以上，但让我们看看会发生什么。
英文原文
@gunnaosrs Yeah $META calls seem like free money, you have the right mindset. I'm not doing leaps though probably shorter dated calls since it takes 2-3 days for recovery a lot of times. I was thinking day-2 flush or if it drops 15%+ intra-day today but we'll see.
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若消除EPFA及稀释顾虑，NUAI或为优质投资标的。
@consmnesique 是的，我会去参观 $NUAI，并感谢 @Thebullwhisper、@chaptimustrades 和其他提到它的人的评论。我一个月左右的主要担忧是 EPFA 和未来稀释。但如果这些都不存在了，那可能是一项很棒的投資。
英文原文
@consmnesique Yep I'll visit $NUAI and appreciate the other comments from @Thebullwhisper, @chaptimustrades and others mentioning it. My main concern a month or so ago was that EPFA and future dilution. But if that's gone, would probably be a great investment.
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博主表示将关注DBRG，并称赞对方游戏经验对投研有帮助。
@gunnaosrs 有趣，我会把 $DBRG 列入我的观察名单，看来你在 Grand Exchange 的经历确实有助于你的股票研究。
英文原文
@gunnaosrs Interesting I'll put $DBRG on my radar then, looks like your time at the Grand Exchange is helping you with stocks
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计划研究DBRG，并观察META财报以决定期权交易。
@gunnaosrs 我也需要研究一下 $DBRG，我时不时就会听到这个名字被提及。目前我个人正在关注 $META 的财报，以决定是否要买入期权。
英文原文
@gunnaosrs I need to look at $DBRG too, I keep hearing that name pop up from time to time. I'm just personally looking at $META earning right now to see if I want to enter options.
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询问 $FIX 与 $LGN IPO 后的资产负债表对比数据。
@gunnaosrs 你手头是否有 $FIX 与 $FIN 在 IPO 后最新的资产负债表估算数据，比如资产、债务和现金？据我所知，Legence 融资了 7.28 亿美元，但即便如此，他们手头仍有约 1.006 亿美元现金，约 22 亿美元资产，以及 16-17 亿美元债务。
英文原文
@gunnaosrs Do you have the current estimated balance sheet like assets, debt, cash on hand of $FIX vs $LGN on hand by any chance (after IPO)? From what I've read Legence raised $728M but even after that they still have ~$100.6m cash on hand, ~2.2B assets, with $1.6-1.7B debt.
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认同LGN看多逻辑，指出其债务风险，强调七巨头供应链标的价值。
@gunnaosrs 是的，那正是我内部思考过的相同论点。 目前我听到的关于 $LGN 的负面消息只有债务问题以及与私募股权(PE)基金相关的某些事项，但我并未深入调查。 每当看到许多“七巨头(Mag7)”公司使用某家企业的服务时，我就会非常感兴趣（例如 $ALAB、$TSM、$CRWV）。
英文原文
@gunnaosrs Yeah that was my same thesis I was thinking about internally. Only negatives I've heard about $LGN so far were debt and something with P/E funds but I haven't looked into it too much. Whenever a lot of Mag7 uses a business I get really interested (eg. $ALAB, $TSM, $CRWV)
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认为当前是逢低买入良机，但反对非必要扩大资本支出。
@rioferdy838 @DivesTech @Benzinga 我个人的看法是，这是一个不错的逢低买入(dip buy)机会，但与此同时，我反对在非必要情况下扩大资本支出(capex)投入。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 @DivesTech @Benzinga My personal take is that it’s a good dip buy but at the same time I disagree with scaling capex spend when it’s not required.
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看好NBIS涨至400美元，受降息利好及估值低估支撑。
@__visionxry__ 我仍然认为 $NBIS 会从 $121 涨到 $400，今天应该交易在 ~$158 左右。市场可能只是在等待财报以获取更清晰的指引，即使你可以自行估算。 Neocloud（新云）板块可能是降息的最大受益者，这也是利好因素。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ I still think $NBIS hits $400 from $121 and should be trading ~$158 today. Markets might just waiting until earnings for clearer guidance, even if you can estimate them. Neocloud sector is probably the biggest beneficiary of rate cuts too so that helps https://t.co/dO6F8PVCIH
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建议买入TSM 3月300看涨期权，视溢价情况决定平仓或行权。
@DigestingX 我个人可能会买入 $TSM 3月的 $300 看涨期权(Call Options)，并在1月卖出。如果溢价(Premium)大幅飙升，就在临近到期日时行权(Row Exercise)转为股票。
英文原文
@DigestingX I'd probably personally do $TSM March $300 calls and sell in Jan. If it blows past premium, then just exercise it into shares closer to the date.
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博主分享通过评论和私信挖掘小盘股的研究方法。
@cmachdop 我基本上会去查评论区提到的每一个股票代码，比如 $ABAT，或者人们@我的那些。很多人也会私信我询问关于小盘股的事，我从中学到了很多。虽然不完全是那种极小盘股，但我目前正在关注 $LGN，因为它是“七巨头”（Mag7）的客户。
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@cmachdop I kind of just look up every ticker that gets mentioned on comments $ABAT or what people tag me in. Many people DM me too asking about small caps and I learn a lot there. It's not quite your extremely small cap but I'm looking at $LGN right now because of mag7 clients.
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重申对新云板块整体看涨，强调NBIS的高非对称回报潜力。
@aasbadalados 我说过我对几乎所有新云(Neocloud)公司都持看涨态度，包括 $WYFI！ 我在其他帖子中提到的唯一一点是，与其他新云公司相比，像 $NBIS 这样的公司具有更高的非对称回报(asymmetrical returns)。 在这条推文中，我并没有对任何单一个股发表评论，这些都只是例子。
英文原文
@aasbadalados I said I’m bullish on just about almost every single Neocloud, including $WYFI! The only point I made on other posts was that some neoclouds have higher asymmetrical returns than others like $NBIS. On this post, I’m not making any single stock commentary, all were just examples
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纠正对方操作错误，分享仓位轮动方法。
@DeepValueBagger 所以你实际上做错了。以下是如何进行仓位轮动(rotate positions)。https://t.co/BdvlwPzl2M
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger So you're actually doing it wrong. Here's how you rotate positions. https://t.co/BdvlwPzl2M
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博主澄清无意论证个股，仅分享宏观配置思路并提及个人偏好。
谢谢！我在此并非要为 $APLD、$GLXY、$API、$NNE 等你们提到的个股进行任何论证。我只是想提供一个更宏观的概述，以及如何使用上述例子进行仓位配置。如果这些是你们的顶级选股，那太棒了！（我个人比较喜欢其中的 $WULF 和 $GLXY）
英文原文
Thanks! I'm not here to make any argument for individual stocks here like $APLD, $GLXY, $API, $NNE and others that you mentioned. I just wanted to give a broader overview of macro and how you could position with the examples above. If those are your top picks, then great! (i personally like $WULF and $GLXY on there)
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强调投资需基于可扩展基本面，建议投资者独立研究决策。
是的，你提出的观点很棒。我以量子计算股票如 $RGTI 为例，提醒在整合仓位时需谨慎，但你提到了 $FLNC。经验法则是，重要的是要知道股票定价何时由可扩展的基本面支撑。但我在此帖中并非要为任何个股树立观点，只是举例。人们应自行研究并做出自己的选择。
英文原文
Yep that's a great point you made. I gave quantum stocks like $RGTI as an example of caution if you're consolidating, but you mentioned $FLNC. Rule of thumb is that it's important to know when the pricing of a stock is backed up by scaling fundamentals. But I'm not here to make a point with any individual stocks in this post, just gave examples. People should do their research and make their own choices.
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祝贺粉丝高回报，看好NBIS受降息和季节性利好。
@accounting_ds 恭喜，年初至今(YTD) 300%+ 的回报真的令人惊叹。随着未来几个月再降息两次以及季节性顺风，对 $NBIS 应该非常有利。 是的，如果现在的策略有效就继续做下去，没有理由改变。
英文原文
@accounting_ds Congrats, 300%+ return is really amazing YTD. With 2 more rate cuts and seasonality tailwind for the next few months, should be really positive for $NBIS. Yeah just keep doing what you're doing if it's working, no reason to change.
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博主调侃FI股票对其的态度。
@DeepValueBagger @NighthawkTradez 这就是 $FI 看我的眼神 https://t.co/sHUSMj2Zwz
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger @NighthawkTradez This is how $FI looks at me https://t.co/sHUSMj2Zwz
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回应股票分类讨论，建议避开$FI。
@baggers4beggers 是的，市场上确实有很多像你所提到的那类股票。 关于 $KRKNF 究竟该归入哪一类可以见仁见智，但它符合多个类别的定义。 只要你没投资 $FI，那就没问题。https://t.co/DvMxiUra16
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@baggers4beggers Yeah there’s a lot more stocks out there like the ones you mentioned. It can be argued where $KRKNF goes categorically but the fit in multiple. As long as you didn’t invest in $FI, you’re good https://t.co/DvMxiUra16
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不建议追高BE和CLS，建议采用定投策略建仓。
@rioferdy838 我说它们是了解某个通用板块表现如何的良好代理指标，但我个人不会在上涨25%后追高 $BE 或 $CLS。但如果你要建仓，采用定投(DCA)策略会比较明智。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 I said they were good proxies to know how well a general segment was doing but I personally wouldn’t chase $BE or $CLS after a 25% increase. But if you were to enter positions would be smart to DCA
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点评GLXY等标的表现，IREN遭降级，CIFR与CRWV表现良好。
@mikelfilko 是的，$GLXY、$NBIS 和 $WLAC 是一组不错的标的。我认为只有 $IREN 的投资者对今天的双重降级感到有些意外，但其余标的表现良好，例如 $CIFR 获得升级，$CRWV 获得美国政府合同。
英文原文
@mikelfilko Yeah $GLXY, $NBIS, and $WLAC are a good bunch. I think only $IREN investors were in a bit of a surprise with the double downgrade today but the rest are performing well like $CIFR got upgraded and $CRWV US gov contracts.
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IREN遭下调至卖出，分析师指其云业务估值非理性繁荣。
把它当作原因挺可笑的哈哈，但肯定不是。 不过，$IREN 的投资者如果认为能以93%的毛利率(Gross Margins)扩展到数十亿美元的收入，那他们对利润率(Margins)的计算确实非理性地错了，但无论如何它还是一只好股票。 “H.C. Wainwright 将 IREN 从买入(Buy)大幅下调至卖出(Sell)，目标价(Target Price)从36美元上调至45美元。分析师在研报中告诉投资者，应在当前股价水平获利了结。该公司认为，投资者对 Iren 云业务(Cloud Business)的乐观情绪‘已达到非理性繁荣(Irrational Exuberance)的地步。’”
英文原文
Funny to think of it as the cause lol but definitely not. But yeah $IREN investors did their calculations on margins irrationally wrong if they think they can scale to billions of revenue off 93% gross margins but it’s a good stock either way. “H.C. Wainwright double downgraded (IREN) to Sell from Buy with a of $45, up from $36. Investors should be taking profits at current share levels, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes investor optimism around Iren’s cloud business “has reached a point of irrational exuberance.”
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澄清Neocloud持仓集中于NBIS和WLAC，并指出其他板块亦有动量机会。
@mikelfilko 当然，我目前的 Neocloud 持仓主要集中在 $NBIS 和 $WLAC 上。 其他人可能有不同的持仓，我上面列出的只是例子，并非我个人的全部操作。每个板块以及许多其他具有动量的板块中还有更多机会。
英文原文
@mikelfilko Of course, my Neocloud positions are concentrated in $NBIS and $WLAC right now. People can have others, I just listed examples above, not what I personally did. There's a lot more out there for each sector and many other sectors that have momentum.