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特斯拉当时受监管影响大，与特朗普关系利于加速FSD等立法。
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ @yuntungshieh 当时 $TSLA 的情况更多是与监管(regulatory)相关。而且埃隆与特朗普的关系将允许他的公司加速许多围绕全自动驾驶(FSD)、SpaceX发射以及或许有利的税收优惠或抵免的立法。
英文原文
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ @yuntungshieh $TSLA at the time was moreso regulatory related. And that Elon's ties with Trump would allow his companies to speed up a lot of legislation around FSD, SpaceX launches, and perhaps beneficial tax benefits or credits.
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质疑伯瑞对PLTR看空论据的合理性。
@Benbburman @yuntungshieh 是的，我不明白为什么伯瑞(Burry)在他的$PLTR看空论点中没有使用这一点。所谓的“头肩顶(TA)”技术形态以及与Hubspot（一家小型企业营销+博客公司）的估值比较也毫无道理。
英文原文
@Benbburman @yuntungshieh Yeah not sure why Burry didn't use this for his $PLTR short thesis instead. "Head and Shoulders TA" and valuation comparison to Hubspot, a small business marketing + blogging too made 0 sense.
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PLTR估值极高，若政府更迭其政府合同溢价或消失。
$PLTR 拥有极高的溢价，其远期市盈率(Forward P/E)超过三位数。如果该公司能在特朗普政府领导下保持这种复合增长，这种估值会显得稍微合理一些。但我看到最大的风险因素是，人们没有将每四年一次的政府更迭（转向民主党）纳入考量。几年前，Palantir 与 $TSLA 和比特币一起是核心的“特朗普当选”交易标的。但如果政府更迭，而 CEO 又是民主党的高调批评者，那么特斯拉和 $PLTR 拥有的政府合同“内部人溢价”可能会消失。
英文原文
$PLTR has extreme premiums with more than triple digit forward p/e. It would make a little bit more sense if they can keep compounding like that under a Trump administration. But the biggest risk factor I see that people aren't factoring in is administration shift to Democrats in 4 year cycles. Palantir was the core "Trump Election" trade few years back alongside $TSLA and Bitcoin. But if the administration shifts with the CEO being an outspoken critic of democrats, then that "insider premium" for gov contracts that Tesla and $PLTR have might disappear.
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约会应用具备网络效应，代码易复制但用户粘性难替代。
@chartdummie 像 $BMBL 和 $MTCH (Tinder) 这样的约会应用还不错。它们也都具备网络效应。人们可以在一天内用 vibe coding 风格编写出类似应用，但这并不意味着每个人都会去使用它。
英文原文
@chartdummie Dating apps like $BMBL and $MTCH (Tinder) are fine. They both have the network effect too. People can vibe code it in a day but that doesn't mean everyone will use it.
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指出 $CHGG 股价已暴跌超 99%。
@mr0market 你难道不知道 $CHGG 已经跌了 99% 以上吗？ https://t.co/ajLYCLUBNw
英文原文
@mr0market You do realize $CHGG already dropped 99%+? https://t.co/ajLYCLUBNw
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分析多个软件股认为AI无法真正颠覆网络效应驱动的平台，存在投资机会。
"AI正在颠覆软件，但实际上并非如此"这个投资组合。以下是我个人偏好的清单：$RDDT（149美元，年初至今-37.47%）：10/10$NFLX（84.61美元，6个月-30.85%）：9/10$NET（169.5美元，年初至今-13.55%）：10/10$SPOT（488美元，年初至今-15.2%）：9/10$SNAP（5.13美元，年初至今-38.1%）：10/10$DUOL（85.3美元，年初至今-60.92%）：6/10$PINS（17.5美元，年初至今-34%）：8/10$U（18.83美元，年初至今-59.3%）：8/10$FIG（28.93美元，年初至今-23.65%）：7/10Reddit - 10/10：你可以用Opus一天内vibe code一个Reddit，但主要问题是"网络效应"是你无法复制的。你可以问ChatGPT或Gemini一个问题，但主要用途是英雄联盟赛后讨论或人类话语——这些才是人们使用Reddit的原因。Netflix - 9/10：你上Netflix看《鱿鱼游戏》和其他内容。AI确实会帮助生成新的病毒式电影或电视节目，但你仍然会用Netflix或YouTube来看。人们仍然会观看授权动漫如《孤注一掷》或最新的《弥留之国的爱丽丝》剧集，而不是AI生成的内容。Cloudflare 10/10：我不认为AI能颠覆Cloudflare。Spotify - 9/10：最大的颠覆是Apple Music不收取服务费（这可能不会发生）。虽然有AI生成音乐，但就像YouTube一样，你用Spotify来听它。你可以尝试vibe code Spotify，但很大一部分是版权。AI生成的音乐不会取代Martin Garrix的EDM配乐（其中很大一部分是知道这首歌→去音乐节现场）或Taylor Swift的《Love Story》类型歌曲（你也会去现场看演唱会）。Snapchat - 10/10：同样是网络效应——它之所以有效只是因为每个人都同意使用它。它的问题是变现和过多的股票薪酬，不是AI颠覆。Duolingo - 6/10：我长期以来一直嘲笑Duolingo，但在跌到86美元后估值再次合理。是的，你可以通过Gemini学习语言，我自己也是这么做的。但大多数人仍然会把Duolingo作为一种激励工具。还有品牌认知度+便利性，这是最大的因素。人们可以在应用商店vibe code自己的Duolingo，但这不意味着人们会使用它或自己出去编码。Pinterest - 8/10：这是人类相关的品味。人们担心代理商务和生成式AI（Midjourney、DALL-E）会颠覆这种搜索，但人们其实不太用Pinterest做这种搜索。Unity - 8/10：每个人都用Unity做4D AI和World Models。人们担心生成式游戏相关的事情，但它仍然被广泛使用。他们的主要问题是AI使用的变现，不是颠覆。Figma - 7/10：AI现在主要用于将你的Figma文件移植到html/css/js。并不完全是颠覆对软件的需求。也许只是我，但设计和创意有某种人类元素是AI还无法模仿的——用于线框图（它擅长复制和做相对新的东西）。我高度怀疑AI能否一键生成Tempo或$XYZ网站。对于$V和Mastercard等其他公司，我确实相信手续费和百分比费用可能会终结，因为AI通过$CRCL稳定币处理直接支付路由。对于$CHGG等其他公司，它们确实已经被颠覆出局了。对于$RDDT和$NFLX等其他公司，每个人仍然会去那里讨论或看《鱿鱼游戏》，AI没有实质性颠覆效应。由于恐惧已经笼罩软件市场，抄底将很难，但许多公司，如Reddit，提供了绝佳机会。
英文原文
The "AI is Disrupting Software but Not Really" Bucket. Here's my personal list of favorites: $RDDT ($149, -37.47% YTD): 10/10 $NFLX ($84.61, -30.85% 6M): 9/10 $NET ($169.5, -13.55% YTD): 10/10 $SPOT ($488, -15.2% YTD): 9/10 $SNAP ($5.13, -38.1% YTD): 10/10 $DUOL ($85.3, -60.92% YTD): 6/10 $PINS ($17.5, -34% YTD): 8/10 $U ($18.83, -59.3% YTD): 8/10 $FIG ($28.93, -23.65% YTD): 7/10 Reddit - 10/10: You can vibe code Reddit in a day with Opus. But the main thing is "Network Effect" that you can't replicate. You can ask ChatGPT or Gemini a question, but main thing is the type league of legends post-match discussions or human discourse that people use reddit for. Netflix - 9/10: You go to Netflix for squid games and others. I'm sure AI will help with generation of new viral movies or TV shows, but you will still use Netflix or Youtube to watch it. People are still going to watch licensed Anime like Solo Leveling or the newest Alice in Borderlands show over AI generated contnet. Cloudflare 10/10: I don't see how AI would disrupt Cloudflare. Spotify - 9/10: Biggest disruption is Apple Music just not charging for services (which likely won't happen). There's AI generating music but like Youtube, you use Spotify to listen to it. You can try and vibe code Spotify sure, but a large part of it is licenses. AI generated music will not go out and replace Martin Garrix EDM soundtracks (where a large part of it is knowing the song -> going to music festivals in person) or Taylor Swift Love Story type songs (where you also go in person to see concerts). Snapchat - 10/10: Same with network effect only reason it works is because everyone agrees to use it. Their issue is with monetization and excessive stock based compensation, not AI disruption. Duolingo - 6/10: I made fun of Duolingo for the longest time, but it's decent valuation again after the selloff to $86. Yes you can learn languages through Gemini, which I do myself. But most people are still going use Duolingo as more of a motivational tool. There's name recognition too + convenience, which is the biggest factor. People can vibe code their own Duolingo but that doesn't mean people will use it on the app store or go out and code it themselves. Pinterest - 8/10 - It's human related taste. People are fearing agentic commerce and generative AI (Midjourney, DALL-E) will disrupt this type of search, which people don't really use Pinterest for. Unity - 8/10: Everyone uses Unity for 4D AI and World Models. People fear stuff regarding generative gaming, but it's still widely used. Their main issue is monetization from AI usage, not disruption. Figma - 7/10: AI is right now is mainly for porting your figma files over to html/css/js. Not exactly for disrupting the need for the software. Maybe it's just me but there's a certain human element to design and creativity that AI can't emulate yet for wireframing (it's good at copying and doing something relatively new). I highly doubt AI can one-shot Tempo or $XYZ websites. For others like $V and Mastercard, I do genuinely believe interchange and % based fees maybe end as AI handles direct payment routing through $CRCL stablecoins. And for others like $CHGG, they have legitimately been disrupted out of existence already. For the rest like $RDDT and $NFLX, everyone will still go there for discussions or to watch Squid Games, and AI has no material disruptive effect. Going to be hard to time the bottom as fear has overtaken the market with software, but many, such as Reddit present a great opportunity.
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建议关注被错杀且未恢复的AI无关软件股。
@NabQ321 我一直在净买入“被AI颠覆了X公司但实际上毫无影响”这一类别的股票。 像 $RDDT 这样的股票以及其他软件股已经下跌了40%以上，且尚未恢复。 所以，也许去关注一下这些股票是个好主意。
英文原文
@NabQ321 I’ve been a net buyer in the “AI disrupted X company but in reality it has no effect” bucket. Things like $RDDT have been sold off 40%+ along with other software names and haven’t recovered yet. So maybe it’s a good idea to take a look at those.
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分析IQE潜在收购方受限及保持独立倾向。
如果让我猜测，可能是像 $COHR 和 $LITE 这样的公司表现出极大的兴趣。但 $IQE 可能希望保持独立运营，仅出售其拖累业务，而非整个 InP 外延晶圆(InP epiwafer)产能，这使得事情变得有些棘手。此外，由于 $IQE 是一家政府承包商，潜在收购方范围缩小，可能仅限于美英公司。
英文原文
If I had to guess, probably extreme interest by companies like $COHR and $LITE. But $IQE probably wants to stay standalone and sell off their drag only, rather than their entire inp epiwafer capacity, so this makes things a little more challenging. Also the acquisition pool narrows since $IQE is a government contractor, so likely only US-UK companies are potential acquirers.
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IQE债务风险真实，台湾出售案成败决定稀释或重估。
不，债务风险是真实存在的。其当前总债务约为4500万英镑。此外，如果 $IQE 将其外延晶圆(epiwafer)产能转向AI交易的光收发器(transceivers)，重构硬件将需要更多资本。因此，台湾出售案至关重要，如果交易失败，可能会通过进一步稀释股东权益来覆盖短期成本。但如果交易成功且他们能成功转型，估值可能会像Landmark一样重估。
英文原文
No, the risks around the debt are real. Their current gross debt is ~£45M. Plus, if $IQE repurposes their epiwafer capacity towards transceivers for the AI trade, it will take even more capital to refactor the hardware. Hence why the Taiwan sale is critical, if it falls through, there will likely be more dilution to shareholders to cover short term costs. But if it goes through and they're able to repurpose successfully, could be rerated like landmark.
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分享对IQE光子学外延晶圆代工瓶颈的研究思路，提示高风险。
谢谢！刚刚发布了我对 $IQE 的个人思考过程。 无论你是否参与交易，光子学领域的 Epifoundries（外延晶圆代工厂）都是一个非常值得了解的供应链瓶颈环节。 但当然，这是极高风险、二元结果的投资，不建议任何人参与交易。 我只是发布沿途的发现+思考过程，希望其他人觉得有趣。
英文原文
Thanks! Just publishing my personal thought process on $IQE. Epiwafer foundries are a fascinating supply chain chokepoint to learn about in photonics, regardless if you take the trade or not. But of course, extremely high-risk, binary outcome, not recommending anyone to take the trade. I'm just publishing my own findings along the way + thought process and hope others find it interesting.
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深度解析$IQE：通过出售台湾业务去债，转型InP光子学产能，类比矿企转AI。
深入解析 $IQE（市值1.79亿美元）： IQE隐藏的磷化铟(InP)期权价值 vs LandMark 35亿美元的估值。以及 $IREN / $CRWV 等“矿企”向光子学(Potonics)转型的逻辑： 此前我做过一个高层级的“淋浴思考”概览，例如 $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPUs，但这次是更深入的尽职调查(DD)。 基本上：IQE是全球最大的独立商用化合物半导体外延晶圆代工厂，按反应炉数量和物理产能计算。 然而，由于受困于低毛利的传统无线业务和短期流动性约束，其估值处于困境状态。 LandMark Optoelectronics (TPEX: 3081) 是最接近的对比标的。作为800G和1.6T光互连市场中AI InP需求的纯代理标的，LandMark市值约38亿美元，相比市值1.75亿美元的 $IQE 享有巨大溢价。 但如果深入看底层硬件，这种脱节非常有趣： LandMark的运营规模在物理上受限。据估计，他们在台湾单一校区仅运营约27-30台金属有机化学气相沉积(MOCVD)反应炉。 相比之下，IQE在全球拥有超过100台MOCVD和分子束外延(MBE)系统。 IQE光子学资产基础的潜在重置价值和结构性产能似乎远超其当前公开市场估值。 这有点像比特币矿企拥有3GW产能 vs 750MW产能，如果进行转换，前者有巨大的变现期权价值。 我们也看到了光模块瓶颈： -> 下游对光收发器(Optical Transceivers)的需求正在以前所未有的速度加速。 -> 来自 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 等的极端需求直接向上游硬件供应链传导。 这给Innolight等光模块集成商、$COHR、$LITE 和 $AVGO 等光组件制造商，以及最终为 foundational 激光芯片生长原始外延晶圆的商用外延代工厂带来了巨大压力。 由于其他玩家触及物理产能天花板，像 $COHR 这样的垂直整合玩家已满载，超大规模云厂商和模块制造商迫切需要在 $IQE 这样的玩家中寻找替代产能。 而且... 隐藏在IQE合并报表之下的是大量的 Aixtron AIX 2800G4-TM 反应炉。 这些反应炉原生具备双能力(GaAs/InP)，可以以相对较低的成本（每台50万-150万美元）重新用于InP生产，但需要数月或一年时间来重构。当然，执行层面增加了资格认证和良率风险（类似于比特币矿企对GPU进行软件编排，如 $CRWV）。 但无论如何，IQE拥有类似 $IREN 或转型HPC的比特币矿企那样的产能。而LandMark证明了纯代理标的带来的估值溢价。 核心问题.. 释放被困价值： 虽然IQE的营收远高于LandMark，但由于4500万英镑的总债务，其股价（1.75亿美元市值）被定价为破产边缘。 但对超大规模云厂商来说，这笔债务微不足道： 其正在进行的由Lazard指导的战略审查的明确目标是：最终完成IQE台湾（传统GaAs无线业务）的出售，并利用所得资金彻底且永久地消除母公司的限制性债务结构。 再次强调，其可转换贷款票据面值2120万英镑，公司实收1800万英镑。净债务为2350万英镑。 -> 需要立即清除的债务负担：2350万英镑汇丰设施 + 2120万英镑CLN = 约4500万英镑。 假设IQE台湾单元以1亿至1.5亿英镑的高价出售（不保证），IQE在完全无债后将获得5000万至1亿英镑的盈余现金。 然而，射频GaAs目前并不“热门”，因此在困境资产出售中可能仅值5000万至6000万英镑，这足以清偿债务，但缓冲空间很小。 地缘政治转向： 一旦无债，IQE可以将其在北卡罗来纳州和威尔士等地大量闲置的制造产能转向数据中心InP外延晶圆市场。 这为光子学中最关键的瓶颈创造了一条完全资本化、纯西方的供应链，在美国和英国高度重视国内半导体基础设施之际，减少了对亚洲的依赖。 基本上，鉴于 $IQE 拥有的原始资产数量： -> 成功出售台湾业务将消除持续经营风险，清除所有债务，并让他们直接向Tier 1光模块玩家变现其6英寸InP外延晶圆技术。 这是一笔基于成功重组以释放被困价值的深度资产价值交易。且它已是超大规模云厂商光网络的知名供应商（并非科学实验项目）。 下行风险是过度稀释和重组失败。但鉴于其对西方供应链和超大规模云厂商供应链的地缘政治重要性，似乎有更多缓冲。 我个人决定将其作为巨大的潜在反转机会做多。但再次强调，这不适合所有人，风险极高。 TLDR： -> IQE被定价为困境中的射频供应商。 -> 它拥有真正具备光子学能力的硬件基础设施。 -> 如果4100万英镑总债务被移除，且管理层将资本支出重新分配给InP，股权可能大幅重估。 -> 重组+产能期权交易，风险极高但上行空间也极大。 最接近的类比是 $IREN 或 $CIFR 等将GW产能转向AI HPC的比特币矿企。他们拥有大量物理硬件（GW产能），需要资金进行转型（通过出售台湾业务或稀释）。 我乐观地认为他们能做到（像 $INTC 那样，鉴于其对西方的地缘政治重要性，有回旋余地）。 下行风险是极端稀释，这始终是一种可能性（意味着你的股权可能被清零以清偿债务或帮助重构）。 我只是发现4500万英镑总债务（占流通股本+债务的14.4%）并非不可承受，且管理层正试图通过资产出售而非股东稀释来清除债务。 只想发布更深入的拆解和这个非常二元化的**高风险**但潜在高回报交易更多风险。
英文原文
Here's a deeper look into $IQE ($179M): IQE's hidden InP optionality versus LandMark's $3.5B valuation. And the $IREN / $CRWV "miner" pivot to photonics: Before I did a high-level shower thought overview eg. $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPUs, but this is slightly more DD. Basically: IQE is the largest independent merchant compound semi epitaxial foundry in the world by reactor count and physical capacity. However, it's trading at distressed valuations because it's burdened by a low-margin legacy wireless business, and near-term liquidity constraints. LandMark Optoelectronics (TPEX: 3081) is the closest comparison. As a pure-play proxy for AI InP demand in the 800G and 1.6T optical interconnect market, LandMark commands a ~$3.8B billion market cap with large premiums in comparison to $IQE which is trading at a $175M MC. But if you look deeper at the physical hardware, the disconnect is pretty fascinating: LandMark's operational scale is physically limited. They only operate around 27 to 30 Metal-Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) reactors out of a single campus in Taiwan per some estimates. IQE, by stark contrast, possesses well over 100+ MOCVD and MBE systems globally. The underlying replacement value and structural capacity of IQE’s photonics asset base looks to vastly exceeds its current public market valuation. Kind of like if a Bitcoin miner has 3GW capacity, vs 750 MW, there's large optionality to monetize it if they convert it. And we're seeing an transceiver bottleneck too: -> The downstream demand for optical transceivers is experiencing unprecedented acceleration. -> Extreme demand, from $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and others flow directly up the hardware supply chain. This puts immense pressure on transceiver integrators like Innolight, optical component manufacturers like $COHR, $LITE, and $AVGO, and ultimately, the merchant epitaxial foundries that grow the raw epiwafers required for the foundational laser chips. And since other players are hitting a physical capacity ceiling, vertically integrated players like $COHR are capped out, hyperscalers and module makers are desperate for alternative capacity in players like $IQE And.. Hidden entirely beneath IQE's consolidated corporate lines is a massive fleet of Aixtron AIX 2800G4-TM reactors. These are natively dual-capable (GaAs/InP) and can be repurposed for InP production at a relatively modest cost ($500K-$1.5M per reactor) but take few months or year to refactor. And obviously qualification and yield risk added to execution (similar to Bitcoin miners doing software orchestration to GPUs like $CRWV). But still, IQE has the capacity kinda like $IREN or Bitcoin miners that pivoted to HPC. And LandMark is proof of the valuation pure play exposure brings. The Major Question.. Unlocking Trapped Value: While IQE generates significantly higher top-line revenue than LandMark, it's priced ($175M MC) for bankruptcy because of its gross debt of 45M. But the debt looks like pennies to hyperscalers: The explicit, stated goal of their ongoing Lazard-advised strategic review is to definitively conclude the sale of IQE Taiwan (their legacy GaAs wireless business) and utilize the proceeds to completely and permanently extinguish the parent company's restrictive debt profile. Once again their convertible loan notes is a norminal face value of £21.2 million, for proceeds of £18 million for the company. Then they're net debt, £23.5 million. -> The immediate debt burden requiring clearance: £23.5M HSBC facility + £21.2M CLN = ~£45M. Assuming a highly sale price for the IQE Taiwan unit of between £100 million and £150 millio (not guaranteed), IQE would net £50 million to £100 million in surplus cash after becoming completely debt-free. However, RF GaAs is not currently "hot", so in a distressed asset sale it might only be £50M to £60M, which gives it enough room to clear debt alone and little cushion room. The Geopolitical Pivot: Once debt-free, IQE can shift its massive, currently underutilized manufacturing capacity in places like North Carolina and Wales toward the InP epiwafer market for datacenters. It creates a fully capitalized, purely Western-based supply chain for the most critical bottleneck in photonics, eliminating more dependency on Asia at a time when the US and UK are heavily prioritizing domestic semiconductor infrastructure. Basically, just given the amount of raw assets $IQE has: -> Successfully selling off their Taiwan business wipes out the going-concern risks, clears all debt, and leaves them to monetize their 6-inch inp epiwafer tech directly for the Tier 1 optical transceiver players. It's a deep asset value trade on a successful restructuring to unlock trapped value. And a currently well-known supplier for optical networking for hyperscalers (so not a science project). Downside risks are excessive dilution and failure to restructure. But given it's geopolitical importance to Western supply chains and hyperscaler supply chains, it seems to have more cushion. I personally decided to enter this long as a massive potential turnaround. But again, it's not for everyone and it's extremely high risk. TLDR: -> IQE is priced like a distressed RF supplier. -> It owns real photonics-capable infrastructure. -> If gross 41M debt is removed and management reallocates capex toward InP, the equity could rerate materially. -> Restructuring + capacity optionality trade with extreme risk but extreme upside. Closest comparison is Bitcoin miners like $IREN or $CIFR that pivot their GW capacity to AI HPC. They have a ton of physical hardware (GW capacity), and need funds to pivot (either through sale of Taiwan business or dilution). It's an optimistic trade I took they can do it (with wiggle room like $INTC given their geopolitical importance to the West). The downside is extreme dilution, which is always a possibility (meaning your equity gets wiped out to 0 to clear their debts or to help them refactor). I just found that 45M gross debt (14.4% of float + debt) wasn't the most and management was looking to clear that through asset sales rather than dilution to shareholders. Just wanted to publish deeper breakdown and more risks of this very binary **high risk**, but potentially high upside trade.
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博主庆祝两个月前的光子学研究验证，相关个股获三位数回报。
我只是在庆祝我两个月前做的一些深度研究(DD)！ 看到 $AXTI、$AAOI 和 $LITE 的股价都实现了三位数的回报，这种验证我最初关于光子学(photonics)论点的过程非常有趣。 显然不是在告诉其他人要建仓，只是分享一些更新。
英文原文
I’m just celebrating some of the DD I did two months ago! Seeing it play out with stock prices from $AXTI, $AAOI, and $LITE all hitting triple digit returns is very fun to see (and helps validate my original thesis on photonics). Obviously not telling others to take positions, just sharing some updates.
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建议高位适度止盈但不清仓，长期持有光子学资产将大幅跑赢市场。
是的，在过去两个月疯狂上涨后，适当减仓并锁定部分利润是合理的！不过不要完全清仓所有头寸。 对我来说，我对自己的投资组合进行更多的主动管理。 我相信，鉴于光子学(Photonics)产能的爬坡，如果你只是持有这些资产三年，其表现将大幅跑赢大多数投资组合。
英文原文
Yeah it makes sense to trim a bit and take some profits after the insane rally last two months! Not completely sell all positions though. For me I do more of active management for my own portfolio. I’m sure if you just hold things for the next three years given photonic ramp, it would strongly outperform majority of portfolios.
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Landmark是纯正外延晶圆代工标的，无传统业务拖累且资产负债表优于IQE。
@01010001x Landmark 无疑是市值 $3.85B 的 epiwafer foundry（外延晶圆代工）最纯正的标的。虽然其产能低于竞争对手 $IQE（约 $2.00B），但它没有传统业务拖累，且资产负债表更优。
英文原文
@01010001x Landmark is the most pure play inp epiwafer foundry at $3.85B MC for sure. It has lower capacity than their ~$200M $IQE competitor but has no legacy drag exposure and a better balance sheet.
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光子学拥挤，转向小众瓶颈环节。
@yianisz 恭喜 $AAOI，去年没几个人提到它。最近光子学领域拥挤度很高，所以我一直在转向市场尚不了解的更小众的光子学瓶颈环节。
英文原文
@yianisz Congrats on $AAOI, not many people were mentioning it last year. There’s been a lot of crowding in photonics recently so I’ve been rotating into more niche photonics bottlenecks that markets don’t really know yet too.
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定义光子学“四大天王”并指出IQE适合高风险组合，看好板块整体表现。
$AAOI 是另一家在最近两个月股价翻倍的 Photonics（光子学）公司！ 感觉从 $AXTI 到 $AAOI 的每一家光子学公司最近都在翻倍或翻三倍？ 我将这些光子学敞口标的称为“四大天王”： 1. $LITE（TPU 的高 BOM（物料清单）占比） 2. $AXTI（万物材料） 3. $COHR（供应链的重要组成部分） 4. $AAOI（美国制造） 其他如 $IQE，我最近也稍微加了一些仓位，主要用于风险偏好较高的组合（它是 $LITE 和其他公司的 Epiwafer（外延晶圆）代工厂），但其财务表现并不出色。 话虽如此，很高兴两个月后，这些名字中的许多都开始起飞了。
英文原文
$AAOI is another photonics name that has just doubled in the last two months! Feels like every photonics company from $AXTI and $AAOI has been doubling or tripling recently? I’ve dubbed this the “Elite Four” for photonics exposure: 1. $LITE (High BOM of the TPU) 2. $AXTI (Materials for Eveything) 3. $COHR (huge part of supply chain) 4. $AAOI (made in America) Others like $IQE I’ve personally added recently slightly more for risk-on portfolios (epiwafer foundry for $LITE and others), but don’t have a great financial profile. That being said glad 2 months later, a lot of these names are taking off
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警告$KORU三倍杠杆在剧烈回调中的风险。
@iverson3 $KORU 的玩法……直到它失效为止。如果市场出现剧烈回调，3倍杠杆带来的损失将不堪设想。
英文原文
@iverson3 $KORU works… until it doesn’t. 3x leverage on a steep correction if there is one won’t look pretty.
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反驳“太晚”论，指出牛市下运营利润将远超市值。
@itssaltyyyy > $5200亿市值 > 牛市情景下，到2027年运营利润达$5100亿 > “太晚了”
英文原文
@itssaltyyyy > $520B MC > ends up making $510B operating profit by 2027 in a bull case > “it’s too late”
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对内存超级周期预测的怀疑反证了其疯狂程度。
@o15CR 是的，历史上他们确实非常务实。 第一反应是对这些预测持极度怀疑态度，但这恰恰说明了如果预测成真，内存超级周期（memory supercycle）有多么疯狂。
英文原文
@o15CR Yeah historically they were really grounded. First reaction was to be extremely skeptical of these projections, but that just goes to show how insane the memory supercycle is if it turns out true.
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博主讽刺对方混淆韩国指数与美股逻辑，类比拉高出货谬误。
@xpirozhkov 哈哈……你难道没意识到这是韩国股市指数吗？ 这就像说“如果你用 $SPY 买入美国股市指数，因为 $NVDA 推动其年初至今上涨，他们只是想拉高出货（pump their bags）”一样。
英文原文
@xpirozhkov lol… you do realize this is South Korea’s stock index right? It’s like saying “They’re just trying to pump their bags if you buy the US stock index with $SPY since it’s up YTD off $NVDA”
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杠杆工具增加SK海力士和三星波动，但当前价位可安心持有。
是的，由于新的10倍永续合约(perpetual contracts)、即将推出的2倍杠杆ETF(leveraged ETFs)及其他工具，SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)确实存在因杠杆带来的巨大波动潜力。尤其是$EWY和韩国KOSPI指数(SK Index)基本上就是这两家公司的代表。但就个人而言，在当前价位上，这是可以让人安心睡觉的。
英文原文
Yes there’s a lot of potential volatility due to leverage on SK Hynix and Samsung with the new 10x perps, new 2x leveraged ETFs coming out soon, and other instruments. ESP since $EWY and SK Index are basically a representation of those two companies. But personally, it’s something that can be slept easy on at these levels.
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对比FLKR与EWY，前者费率低，后者可交易期权。
@SlumberMD $FLKR 在持有份额方面表现更佳，因为其费用率更低。$EWY 可以进行期权交易。
英文原文
@SlumberMD $FLKR is better for shares due to lower expense ratios. $EWY has option trading.
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韩国指数由三星和SK海力士驱动，盈利强劲，类比台积电具长期做多价值。
$KOSPI 和 $EWY，人们不应该试图对韩国指数进行技术分析(TA)或将其与白银等资产进行比较。 韩国指数正处于价格发现阶段，主要由两只股票带动： 摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和麦格理(Macquarie)对其营业利润的预测如下： 三星(Samsung) 2026年：约1820亿 - 2108亿美元 2027年：约2351亿 - 3337亿美元 SK海力士(SK Hynix)： 2026年：约1329亿 - 1905亿美元 2027年：约1670亿 - 3128亿美元 如果SK海力士的估值为5000亿美元，而其2026和2027财年的预测营业利润为5100亿美元。 这看起来简直荒谬。（右侧为麦格理的多头情景预测） 我可能会更倾向于参考摩根士丹利的预测（这更加务实），但核心观点依然成立：这些公司的盈利能力极强。 如果三星未来交易价格达到2.5万亿美元（目前为1万亿美元），我也不会感到惊讶。 它给人的感觉就像两年前的 $TSM 一样，看起来是一个显而易见的做多机会。
英文原文
$KOSPI and $EWY, South Korea’s index is something people shouldn’t try to TA or compare to stuff like Silver. SK index is in price discovery mode as it’s carried by two stocks: Whose operating profit projections from Morgan Stanley and Macquarie are: Samsung 2026: ~$182.0B - ~$210.8B USD 2027: ~$235.1B - ~$333.7B USD SK Hynix: 2026: ~$132.9B - ~$190.5B USD 2027: ~$167.0B - ~$312.8B USD If SK Hynix is valued at $500B and their projected operating income for FY 2026 and 2027 is $510B. It just looks silly. (From Macquarie's bull case projections on the right) I’d probably go off Morgan Stanley projections instead (which is a lot more grounded) but the point still stands that these companies are just so profitable. Wouldn’t be surprised if Samsung were trading at $2.5T in the future (from $1T now). It does have that same feeling as $TSM 2 years ago, where it looks like a no-brainer long.
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博主回应Reddit粉丝，提及因负面评论暂停发帖。
@RancicYaro4064 很高兴很多来自 $RDDT 的人在这里找到了我！在那里发布 $TE 和 $ETH 的迷因帖很有趣。之前关于 $AXTI 的帖子引发了太多负面评论，尽管该股最终翻了三倍，所以我之后就没怎么发帖了，哈哈。
英文原文
@RancicYaro4064 I’m glad a lot of people from $RDDT found me here! It’s been fun posting $TE and $ETH meme ta posts on there. Just got too much negativity from my $AXTI post which ended up tripling so haven’t really posted since lol
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推荐$XLU作为电网现代化受益标的，提示注意隐含波动率定价。
$XLU 是我看好能源/电网现代化、降息预期以及推理/训练大规模用量的首选多头标的。进入这些交易无需匆忙，公用事业和电力板块通常像恐龙一样移动缓慢。但如果你进行大幅跳跃式建仓，请确保隐含波动率(IV)定价在 14-16% 的正确区间，而非虚高的行权价。
英文原文
$XLU was my long of choice for energy/grid modernization, coupled with rate cuts and mass usage from inference/training. There’s no rush to enter these trades, utilities and power typically move like dinosaurs. But if you’re doing leaps make sure IV is priced correctly at 14-16%, not inflated strikes.
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EWJ比EWY更分散，建议利用ETF做方向性杠杆而非博弈波动率。
$EWJ 相比 $EWY 的分散度更高，后者基本上只有三星和 SK 海力士两家公司。我认为日本和台湾 ETF 的隐含波动率(IV)定价合理。如果你要介入这些标的，应该更多是为了方向性的杠杆，而不是 Vega 扩张，因为内存超级周期带来的 Vega 扩张是独一无二的。
英文原文
$EWJ is more diversified compared to $EWY which is basically two companies in Samsung and SK Hynix. I think IV is reasonably priced for Japan and Taiwan ETFs. If you’re entering those it should be more for leverage on direction rather than Vega expansion, which was one of a kind from the memory supercycle
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LITE 深度绑定 Google TPU，ASIC 放量预期在 2027-2028 年。
$LITE 与 $GOOGL 的 TPU 项目直接相关，约占物料清单(BOM)价值的 8-12%。其他超大规模云计算提供商的专用集成电路(ASIC)占比可能仅为低个位数百分比。Google 大幅上调了资本支出(Capex)预测数字。市场假设这将惠及 $LITE。我认为你不应该基于 60% 来自 ASIC 放量等任意数字进行建模。大部分光子学/ASIC 的放量预计发生在 2027 年末至 2028 年，市场目前只是在提前交易这一预期。我在股价再次翻倍前的研究论文中做过原始估值计算，最近没有更新。
英文原文
$LITE is directly tied to $GOOGL TPU programs and is ~8-12% of BOM value Other hyperscaler ASICs is likely low single digit %. Google hiked projected capex numbers a lot. And the assumption is that trickles down into $LITE. I don’t think you should model based on arbitrary numbers figures like 60% should be off asic ramp. Majority of photonics/asic ramp is expected to happen late 2027 into 2028, and markets are just frontrunning that now. I did the original valuation math in my thesis before it doubled again, haven’t done it recently.
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分享AXTI持仓两月涨283%，并提及NVDA财报后的高飞股抛售。
@AvivaMarket 也许是因为即便算上今天的跌幅，本月涨幅也已达 102%？ 我持有的 $AXTI 仓位在过去两个月仍上涨了 283%。 除了健康的回调外，在 $NVDA 财报发布后，许多高飞股出现了抛售。 https://t.co/lzX2ZA2ewu
英文原文
@AvivaMarket Maybe because it just went up 102% this month even accounting for the drop today? Still up 283% in the last two months on one of my $AXTI positions. Healthy correction aside there was a selloff in a lot of high flying names after $NVDA earnings. https://t.co/lzX2ZA2ewu
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博主复盘YTD 477%收益，归功于AI供应链瓶颈研究与亚盘资金轮动策略。
年初至今在 $NVDA 财报后表现： 477.27%。 大部分收益源于我过去几个月的研究： 例如从近期上涨数百倍的 $AXTI 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈中获利。 或者利用 Jane Street 因 SK 海力士/三星的隐含波动率(IV) Vega 扩张而在 $EWY 上的交易获利。 许多其他交易在短期内也获得了百分之几十甚至数百%的回报。 比如 $XLU 一周上涨 3%，以及 $MU 和 $SNDK 史诗级的方向性反弹。 人们通常喜欢看这样的最终结果，这确实最引人注目。 但当前收益的大部分基础早在几个月前就已奠定，从对 $LITE 的 Google BOM 分析，到去年对 Unimicron、Nittobo 甚至 $TSM 的半导体供应链瓶颈研究。 即使现在，我也在为未来播种，例如对电力/电网板块 $XLU 的分析，或理解上风险较高但作为光子学供应链中 $LITE 供应商的 $IQE。 我通常遵循以下流程： > 研究帖子（初始论点） > 将其转化为实际想法和交易 > 对 Alpha 进行后续尽职调查（例如 SMM InP 定价） > 当行情上涨时庆祝。 跨行业，且通常关注有动量的板块。 而不是死守单一个股，或只做分析而不交易。 我认为人们可能觉得这种风格令人耳目一新。 我认为最近我只是在利用两个不同的趋势： 1. 聚焦 AI 供应链中的活跃瓶颈 - 存储：$SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士、三星、$SIMO - 光子学：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI 和 Yamamura - 电力电网：$XLU - 先进封装/良率：$AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC、$FORM 和 $AEHR 2. 然后聚焦资金轮动至台湾、日本、韩国。 基本上上周资金轮动是从美国/中国 -> 韩国、台湾、日本。 像 $EWJ 这样的 ETF 或 Nanya Plastics 等个股正在起飞。 - 台湾股票基金最近单周净流入超过 10 亿美元，这是几个月来首次 - 对于日本：高盛图表显示 +0.37 的标准差净买入 - 对于韩国，外国人在 2 月上半月净买入约 1.37 万亿韩元（约 10 亿美元） 而高盛图表显示北美空头活动令人震惊的 -1.52 标准差。 所以这可能是我对 $HOOD 投资者因缺乏亚洲股票敞口而表现不佳的假设原因。 原因是超大规模云厂商的资本支出交易流向供应链中的亚洲国家（例如，一些分析师预测 SK 海力士 2027 年远期市盈率仅为 2.2，这很荒谬）-> 机构跟随资金流进行资本轮动。 至于一些反思，我真惊讶于如今有多少人阅读我的帖子，这真的让我感到谦卑！ 我通常不太庆祝（去年我只做过一次，当时是 1 年回报 600%+），但我惊讶于今年我在时机把握和论点正确率上的好运。 我并不完美，我确实会犯一些错误，但更重要的是我每天绿色的日子多于红色的。 但感谢大家，我在两三个月内从小账户增长到了 83K！
英文原文
Year to Date post $NVDA earnings: 477.27%. Majority of the gains are the result of the research I've done the past few months: From the $AXTI's InP chokepoint that went up few hundred percent recently. or profiting off Jane Street from $EWY IV vega expansion for Sk Hynix/Samsung. Many others were tens of % or hundreds of percent returns each in a short timeframe. Like $XLU going up 3% in a week to the epic directional rally of $MU and $SNDK. I think people just like to see the end results like this, which is understandably the most eye-catching. But most of the groundwork for the current returns was laid out months ago from $LITE Google BOM analysis to semi supply chain bottlenecks from Unimicron, Nittobo, and even $TSM last year. Even now I’m planting the seeds for the future with analysis on $XLU for the power/grid sector, or understandably higher risk companies like $IQE as a $LITE supplier for the photonics supply chains. I typically shift from: > Research Posts (Initial thesis post) > Map that into actual ideas + trades > Follow-Up DDs on Alpha (eg. SMM InP pricing) > celebrate when things go up. cross-industry, and typically on sectors with momentum. Rather than sticking single stocks, or just analysis only (instead of trading). And I think people might have found this style refreshing. I think recently, I’m is just capitalizing on two different trends: 1. Focusing on active bottlenecks in AI supply chains - Memory like $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, $SIMO - Photonics like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, and Yamamura - Power Grid like $XLU - Advanced Packaging/Yields - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, $FORM, and $AEHR 2. Then focusing on Capital Rotation into Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Basically past week capital rotation was rotating from US/China -> Korea, Taiwan, Japan. ETFs like $EWJ or individual stocks from Nanya Plastics have been taking off. - Taiwan Equity Funds recently took in over $1 billion in a single week for the first time in months - For Japan: GS chart's +0.37 long buying - For Korea, foreigners were net buyers of roughly 1.37 trillion won (~$1 billion USD) in the first half of February While GS chart shows a staggering -1.52 SD in short activity for North America. So that's probably my assumption on why $HOOD investors haven't been doing too well from a lack of Asian equity exposure. The reason being Hyperscaler capex trade flows into Asian countries in the supply chains (eg. Some analysts projected Sk Hynix to have 2.2 2027 fwd p/e, which is absurd) -> institutions following the flow with capital rotation. As for some reflection, I'm genuinely surprised by how many people read my posts nowadays and it’s really humbling! I don’t really celebrate this much (last year I only did one time with a 600%+ 1Y return) but I’m amazed by how lucky I am this year with timing and getting a lot my thesis right. I’m not perfect, I do get a few things wrong, but what’s more important is I get more green than red every day. But thanks to everyone, I grew from a little account to 83K in like two or three months!
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解析散热瓶颈及$AEHR通过高温压力测试提升良率的逻辑。
其中的细微差别在于有两点。一是散热管理瓶颈（液冷、铜线寿命延长等）。 $AEHR 处于半导体良率的制造环节。利用热量进行压力测试，以发现可能导致早期失效的潜在缺陷单元。 由于芯片在极端高温下运行，导致早期寿命失效的缺陷风险很高。因此，他们需要在极端高温下测试每一颗芯片。
英文原文
So the nuance is that there's two. One is thermal management bottlenecks (liquid cooling, copper life extension, etc). $AEHR sits in the manufacturing side for semi yield. Heat is used to stress test to see potential defective units for early failure. Since chips run at extreme temperatures, a defect causing early life failure is high. So they need to test every chip at extreme heat.