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估算AAOI远期市盈率仅6-8倍，认为其估值极具吸引力。
@MarkoTominic 如果 $AAOI 实现约 43 亿美元营收和 40% 毛利率，根据粗略估算，其远期市盈率(Forward P/E) 可能在 6.3-7.8 倍左右。当然，还需要更多时间进行建模验证。这就是为什么我说它看起来极其便宜。
英文原文
@MarkoTominic $AAOI forward p/e might sit around ~6.3-7.8x from some napkin math if they hit ~$4.3B revenue, 40% gross profit. But of course need some more time to do modeling. That's why I'm saying it's looks extremely cheap.
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看好AAOI估值，计划加仓并预期涨价。
是的，我在这个价位买入，并尽可能增加对 $AAOI 的敞口。如果他们实现 2027 年中 43 亿美元 ARR*（年度经常性收入）的目标，即使考虑到短期 ATM（非稀释性融资），它也被低估了。这还没有计入涨价因素，而在超大规模云服务商试图为分配而建设的情况下，涨价是一个可能的场景。
英文原文
Yes I'm buying at these levels and increasing my exposure as much as possible for $AAOI. If they hit their $4.3B ARR* (ARR should be added to post) 2027 mid-year target. It's undervalued, even factoring in short term ATMs. This is not factoring in price hikes either, which is a likely scenario is hyperscalers are trying to build for allocation.
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$AAOI获三大超大规模客户订单，营收激增，基本面强劲。
$AAOI 看起来像是早期的 $SNDK。而且在未来一年，其市值很可能远超 55 亿美元。 在他们的财报电话会议上： - 3 家超大规模客户（可能是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT） - “他们希望购买我们能生产的所有 800G 和 1.6T 光收发器”——完全售罄，就像内存一样。 - 营收增长预测超过 900%，达到 43 亿美元，而当前市值仅为 55 亿美元。 光子学领域的需求史无前例，$AAOI 刚刚证实了这一点。 而且他们随时可以开始提价，将毛利率从 40% 进一步提高。当然，存在执行风险…… 但这是一个你应该关注基本面而非图表的例子。
英文原文
$AAOI looks like an early $SNDK. And is likely going much higher than a $5.5B MC over the next year. On their earnings call: - 3 hyperscale customers (probably $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT) - "they would like to buy all the transceiver we can make for 800G and 1.6". - completely sold out, like memory. - 900%+ revenue growth forecast to $4.3B off $5.5B MC. There is unprecedented demand for photonics, and $AAOI just confirmed it. And they can always begin price hikes to increase gross margins from 40%. Of course there are execution risks... But this is one example where you look at fundamentals over chart.
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超大规模客户抢购AAOI光模块，预计营收激增900%。
@xoRachelPitzel $AAOI 的涨幅可能会远超于此。他们有3家超大规模数据中心客户希望购买其能生产的所有800G/1.6T光收发器(transceiver)，预计年化经常性收入(ARR)将超过40亿美元，同比增长900%以上。“他们希望购买我们能为800G和1.6T生产的所有光收发器”。
英文原文
@xoRachelPitzel $AAOI is probably going a lot than this. They have 3 hyperscaler clients looking to buy all the 800G/1.6T transcievers they can produce with $4B+ ARR revenue foretasted off 900%+ y/y growth. "they would like to buy all the transceiver we can make for 800G and 1.6"
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博主感谢指正并确认了IntelliEPI的正确股票代码。
@YaronKeren 哎呀，谢谢指正。$4971.TPE 才是 IntelliEPI 的正确代码。
英文原文
@YaronKeren Whoops, thanks for the correction. $4971.TPE is the right one for IntelliEPI
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指出AAOI为最直接标的且营收预期大增，上游亦有受益者。
@PhotonCap 是的！最直接的标的就是 $AAOI，他们刚刚发布了类似 $SNDK 式的财报，预计营收增长10倍。 但当然，正如你提到的，上游也会有其他未被定价的受益者。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Yes! The most direct play is $AAOI, they just dropped a $SNDK-style earnings projecting 10x revenue growth. But of course there's going to be other beneficiaries not priced in too upstream as you mentioned.
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探讨光子学及半导体供应链中除ASML外的其他关键供应商。
谢谢！我知道有些粉丝推荐了 Aixtorn，但还有其他有趣的供应商，比如 Oxford Instruments。我已经对 $IQE 和 epiwafer（外延晶圆）代工晶圆厂做了更多尽职调查(DD)，但光子学领域也有像 $ASML 这样的公司。令人惊讶的是 $VECO 也在那里，尽管我之前是因为 HBM（高带宽内存）相关业务而了解他们。
英文原文
Thanks! I know a some followers recommended Aixtorn, but there's other interesting suppliers like Oxford Instruments out there. I already did more DD into $IQE and the epiwafer merchant foundries, but there's the $ASML's of the photonics world too. Surprisingly $VECO was up there too although I knew them for HBM related stuff.
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光子学产能爬坡影响巨大，市场机会未被充分定价。
@Frenchie_ 市场机会太多没有被定价！而且光子学(Photonics)产能爬坡的影响实在太大了。不想错过。
英文原文
@Frenchie_ There's way too much market opportunity not priced in! And the implications are just way too big for photonics ramp up. Don't want to miss out.
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AAOI财报预示光子学新范式，资金或轮动至上游设备及材料供应商。
$AAOI 预计到 2027 年光收发器需求激增 10 倍，基于 $55 亿的市场规模 (MC)，实现 $43 亿的年经常性收入 (ARR)…… 这规模巨大。 $LITE 和 $COHR 可能已经拥挤，但。 我们可能会看到资金向上游轮动，例如： $ASML 类型的供应商： - Aixtron (ETR: AIXA)：在输入型金属有机化学气相沉积 (MOCVD) 领域占据约 75% 份额 - $VECO - MOCVD 和分子束外延 (MBE) 系统，可能是第二选择。 - Oxford Instruments：$AAOI 和 $COHR 的等离子刻蚀和沉积系统供应商 独立外延晶圆代工厂 (光子学领域的代工厂)： - $IQE：最大的外包化合物半导体外延晶圆制造商。基本上是光子学世界的 $TSM，但有很多传统业务的拖累。 - LandMark Optoelectronics：最直接、纯粹的光收发器单元增长标的 - IntelliEPI (TPE: 2462)：使用 MBE 而非 MOCVD 制造高性能磷化铟 (InP) 外延晶圆 原材料衬底供应商 (基础材料)： - $AXTI/ Sumitomo：大家现在都知道了 收发器产能扩张的预测令人震惊，而这仅仅是 2027 年的情况。 到 2028 年可能会呈指数级增长。 $AAOI 创纪录的财报标志着光子学新范式的开始，获得相关敞口是一个很好的主意。
英文原文
$AAOI's 10x projected rev surge in optical transceiver demand by 2027 for $4.3B ARR off a $5.5B MC... Is enormous. $LITE and $COHR might be crowded, but. We'll likely see rotation upstream like: $ASML-type suppliers: - Aixtron (ETR: AIXA): ~75% share for inp MOCVD - $VECO - MOCVD and MBE (Molecular Beam Epitaxy) systems, probably second. - Oxford Instruments: Supplier to $AAOI and $COHR for plasma etch and deposition systems Merchant Epiwafer Fabs (Foundaries for photonics): - $IQE: largest outsourced compound semiconductor epiwafer manufacturer. Basically $TSM of photonics world but lot of legacy drag. - LandMark Optoelectronics: Most direct, pure-play for optical transceiver unit growth - IntelliEPI (TPE: 2462): MBE rather than MOCVD to create high-performance InP epiwafers Raw Substrate Suppliers (base materials): - $AXTI/ Sumitomo : everyone knows by now Transceiver ramp projections is staggering, and this is only 2027. It's likely exponentially increasing into 2028. $AAOI's record-breaking earnings signals the start of a new paradigm for photonics, it's a great idea to get exposure.
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AI光模块板块交易尚不拥挤，$AAOI 仍有上行空间。
@yianisz 同意！但我认为目前交易拥挤度(crowded trade)尚未达到极点。大多数人持有的是 $LITE 和 $COHR 这类标的，而 $AAOI 才刚刚进入他们的视野。我认为仍有很大上行空间，但这当然取决于执行能力(execution)。
英文原文
@yianisz Agreed! But I don’t quite think it’s crowded quite yet. Most people are in names like $LITE and $COHR and $AAOI is just getting out on their radar. I think there’s a lot of room to go but certainly depends on execution.
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经历超大规模云服务商砍单后，该公司迎来高光时刻。
@labubu_trader 几年前，他们确实经历了超大规模云服务商取消订单的动荡时期。 但我想，在经历了这么多年后，现在正是他们发光发热的时候。
英文原文
@labubu_trader They’ve definitely gone through some wild times with hyperscaler order cancellations years ago. But now’s their time to shine after all these years I guess
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博主表示虽未操作，但正密切关注 $EOSE 的市场热度。
@gabz_investing 没有，但我确实一直在关注 $EOSE，鉴于它在 X 平台上被讨论得非常活跃。
英文原文
@gabz_investing Nope, but I’ve definitely been watching $EOSE given how actively it’s discussed on X
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指出AAOI空头比例高达16%，警告做空者将面临剧烈波动。
@CameronBoswell8 太棒了！顺便提一下，做空 $AAOI 的人将面临一场残酷的行情。其空头比例已升至16%的高位。https://t.co/pPmOxjMV6Y
英文原文
@CameronBoswell8 Nice! On a side note, the shorts are going to be in for a brutal ride on $AAOI. It’s really elevated at 16% https://t.co/pPmOxjMV6Y
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澄清讨论标的为AAOI，并提及此前成功预判AXTI涨幅。
@FractalVeritas 这里讨论的是 $AAOI，不是 $AXTI。不过我确实在 $AXTI 过去两个月上涨3倍之前就指出过它。
英文原文
@FractalVeritas Talking about $AAOI in this, not $AXTI. But I did point out $AXTI before it went up 3x in the last two months.
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AAOI若达标则极度低估，执行风险是主要障碍。
好吧！如果 $AAOI 达成其目标，该股票被极度低估。话虽如此，需要关注市场如何消化执行风险，这仍是主要障碍。相比之下，与2.5亿美元自动取款机(ATM)发行相关的稀释微不足道。
英文原文
D'accord ! Si $AAOI atteint ses objectifs, l'action est extrêmement sous-évaluée. Cela dit, il faudra surveiller comment les marchés intègrent le risque d'exécution, qui reste le principal frein. La dilution liée à l'ATM de 250 millions de dollars n'est pas grand-chose en comparaison.
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AAOI具本土制造地缘溢价，长期价值被低估。
是的，$AAOI 是唯一一家在德克萨斯州 Sugar Land 组装 800G 和 1.6T 光收发器（Transceivers）的真正本土玩家。$COHR 的业务在马来西亚/越南，而 $LITE 使用 $FN 等代工厂。 如果其实现 45 亿美元年度经常性收入（ARR）/40% 利润率的预测，美国本土制造还将获得巨大的地缘政治溢价。 话虽如此： -> 执行风险始终存在 -> 2.5 亿美元的定向增发（ATM）悬顶确实影响短期股价定价。 但长期价值创造被低估了。
英文原文
Yeah $AAOI is the only true domestic player assembling in Sugar Texas for 800G and 1.6T transceivers. $COHR does their stuff in Malaysia/Vietnam, and $LITE uses $FN and others. There's likely going to be a huge geopolitical premium for American domestic manufacturing on top if they hit their $4.5B ARR/40% margin projections. That being said: -> execution risk is always present -> $250m ATM overhang does impact short term stock pricing. But long term value creation is understated.
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$AAOI若达预期市值或达250-300亿，核心持仓但存执行风险。
财报后，如果$AAOI 达成预期，明年市值有望从$50亿轻松跃升至$250亿-$300亿。它是少数“美国制造”（德克萨斯州Sugarland）的公司，对比竞争对手：$LITE（全球）、$COHR（全球）、$FN（泰国）、$AVGO（全球）、中际旭创（中国）和易飞扬（中国）。因此它可能像$INTC对比$TSM、$MU对比SK海力士那样获得“美国溢价”。但看营收：FY营收4.56亿美元，2027年ARR预计45.36亿美元（~900%+增长）。加上30%-40%的低端利润率预期及超大规模云厂商认证，这太疯狂了。虽有$2.5亿ATM增发，但相比预期只是九牛一毛。这部分极有趣：管理层称800G、1.6T模块的需求和产能到2027年中可能激增近10倍。这对$IQE、Landmark等外延晶圆(epiwafer)公司及更上游的$AXTI也是巨大顺风。$AAOI是2026-2027年的核心持仓，但始终存在交付执行的風險。$250-300亿市值预期听起来超现实，但如果达成$43.5亿ARR（900%+增长），光电子规模化在2028-2029年可能继续扩大，财报确实惊人。
英文原文
After earnings, $AAOI could easily be a $25B-$30B company next year from $5B if they hit their projections. And they're one of the only "Made in America" (Sugarland, Texas) companies out of - $LITE (global) - $COHR (global) - $FN (Thai) - $AVGO (global) - Innolight (China), and Eoptolink (China). So they likely get that "America" premium like $INTC compared to $TSM and $MU compared to Sk Hynix. But from revenue: FY Revenue: $456 million 2027 ARR by : $4.536B (~900%+ growth). Off high 30's - low 40% projected margins + hyperscaler qualifications. This is wild. But there was a $250M ATM, but that's typically pennies compared to the projection. This part is extremely interesting: -> Management stated that demand and capacity for 800G, 1.6T modules could surge nearly 10x by mid-2027. This is also a large tailwind for epiwafer companies too like $IQE and Landmark and more upstream like $AXTI. $AAOI is a core hold over 2026-2027, but there's always execution risks if they can deliver. $25-30B MC projections sound surreal but that's how wild the earnings was if they hit $4.35B ARR, off 900%+ growth (and photonics scale up is likely to continue even further into 2028-2029)
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AAOI因纯美国制造获溢价，对比其他光模块厂商。
@Investmnt_Eagle $LITE, $COHR, 中际旭创(Innolight), $AVGO, 和 新易盛(Eoptolink)。 $AAOI 是少数纯“美国制造”的德州晶圆厂之一。因此它将获得溢价。
英文原文
@Investmnt_Eagle $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AVGO, and Eoptolink. $AAOI is one of the only pure "Made in America" texas fab. So it will get the premium.
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计划大幅加仓AAOI，看好其光电子业务高增长与低估值。
@Pacheca12345 财报发布后，我可能会将 $AAOI 的持仓规模增加两倍。光电子业务年经常性收入(ARR)达45亿美元（通常享有类似 $LITE 的估值溢价），利润率约40%，市值55亿美元。再次强调，这只是前所未有的指引上调规模。
英文原文
@Pacheca12345 Probably tripling my $AAOI position size after earnings. 4.5B ARR for photonics(which usually has a premium like $LITE ), ~40% margins, $5.5B MC. Again idk, this is just unheard of guidance scale up.
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盛赞AAOI光子学规模化进展，看好股价大幅上涨。
@crux_capital_ 我以前从未对财报如此印象深刻。 $AAOI 在光子学(Photonics)领域的规模化扩张简直令人难以置信。 股价可能会大幅走高。
英文原文
@crux_capital_ I don’t think I’ve been this impressed by earnings before. That photonics scale up on $AAOI is just crazy. Probably going much higher.
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若纳入AAOI指引，股价将大幅上涨
@Meatusmax 呃，如果市场将 $AAOI 的预测纳入定价，股价肯定会大幅上涨。那份指引简直不可思议。
英文原文
@Meatusmax Uh if they price in $AAOI projections, definitely getting sent a lot higher. That guidance is insanity
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$AAOI光模块收入预测惊人，规模扩张幅度远超同行。
天哪，$AAOI … 我只是把话说在前面，他们预计光模块(transceivers)的月收入将达到3.78亿美元。 而其市值(MC)仅为55亿美元。 这简直就是极端规模扩张(extreme scale up)的定义。 虽然利润率不同，但$AAOI的预测实际上将比$LITE下季度的指引高出40%： “鉴于近期客户咨询激增以及需求明显上升，我们认为到2027年年中，100G和400G收入约为9000万美元。800G收入约为2.17亿美元，1.6T收入约为7100万美元。总计，这代表了光模块产品3.78亿美元的月收入。” 这种预测简直荒谬绝伦，自$SNDK财报以来从未见过。
英文原文
Holy $AAOI … Just putting it out there they’re projecting $378 million in monthly revenue for transceivers. At a $5.5B MC. This is the definition of extreme scale up. Although margins are different, $AAOI projections would actually surpass $LITE next quarter guidance by 40%: "Given the recent surge in customer inquiries and apparent rising demand, we believe that by mid-2027, 100G and 400G revenue will be approximately $90 million. 800G revenue will be approximately $217 million and 1.6 terabit revenue will be approximately $71 million monthly. Altogether, this represents $378 million in monthly revenue for transceiver products." Absolutely unholy projections unseen since $SNDK earnings.
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AI供应链受云厂商资本开支驱动，基本面改善非随机反弹。
@KyleWilson77344 它跟随 $GOOGL 超大规模云服务商的资本支出流向韩国存储、日本瓶颈/材料，以及台湾晶圆代工厂如 $TSM 或 ASIC 设计商如联发科。这主要是运营利润、极端增长以及韩国/日本治理结构的变化，而不仅仅是一次随机的反弹。
英文原文
@KyleWilson77344 Its following $GOOGL hyperscaler capex flows into Korean memory, Japanese bottlenecks/materials, and Taiwan fabs like $TSM or ASIC designers like Mediatek. It’s mainly operating profit, extreme growth, and governance changes in Korea/Japan, not just a random rally.
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韩国投资者因买入美股而错过本土芯片股反弹。
@LIWEILIU476419 我认识的所有韩国人最终都买了美国股票，结果错过了三星(Samsung)和SK海力士(SK Hynix)在国内的反弹行情，哈哈。
英文原文
@LIWEILIU476419 All the Koreans I know ended up buying US equities and missed the Samsung/SK Hynix rally domestically lol.
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博主指出此前看多的XLU期权一周大涨，波动罕见。
@annapych1 是的，自从我指出这一点以来，一些 $XLU 的期权合约在一周内上涨了 80-150%。 一周内出现 3.3% 的波动极其罕见 https://t.co/wmGI7Sysv1
英文原文
@annapych1 Yeah some $XLU strikes are up 80-150% in a week since I called it out. Extremely rare to have a 3.3% movement in a week https://t.co/wmGI7Sysv1
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吐槽美股与亚股表现两极分化，提醒可配置两地资产。
不会只有我一个人这么觉得吧？ 我的时间线基本上是这样的： 亚洲投资者和分析师们欢呼他们的公司，如Nittobo或Seikoh Giken，每天上涨5-10%。 然后每个美国投资者都在发布$CRWV、$EOSE和$DUOL每天暴跌5-10%的亏损截图。 完全两极分化…… 你们都知道可以同时持有美国股票和亚洲股票，对吧？
英文原文
It can’t just be me right? My timeline is basically: Asian investors and analysts cheering on their companies like Nittobo or Seikoh Giken going up 5-10% a day. Then every US investors posting loss screenshots from $CRWV, $EOSE, and $DUOL crashing 5-10% a day. Completely binary… You all know that you can have both US equities and Asian equities right?
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商户支付费用高，未来或激励使用稳定币结算。
@DDBlakeFischer 这是面向商户而非终端用户的。他们同样会被收取约 2-2.9% + 30 美分的费用，以及面临拒付(chargebacks)。 在我看来，未来会有激励措施促使代理使用稳定币(stablecoins)进行结算，例如提供折扣产品。只是人们尚未实现这一点。
英文原文
@DDBlakeFischer It’s for merchants not end users. They get charged like 2-2.9% + 30 cents as well as chargebacks. IMO there’s going to be incentives for having agents settle in stablecoins like discounted products. People just haven’t made it yet
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Suno虽好，但音乐发行仍依赖Spotify。
@EnDwiGastX 作为 Suno 用户（我用它制作了引用中的这首歌），它确实很棒。但尽管如此，人们仍会使用 $SPOT 来听音乐。我相信艺术家们会用它创作内容，但会通过 Spotify（获得授权后）发布。
英文原文
@EnDwiGastX As a Suno user myself (I used it to make this song in the quote), it's really good. But despite that, people will still use $SPOT to listen to music. I'm sure artists will make stuff with but they'll release it through Spotify (with the licenses). https://t.co/6TScpgFisl
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AI尚难设计独特网站，初步设计仍依赖Figma。
这是一个非常中肯的经验之谈。尽管我个人使用 Opus 进行 UI/前端编码，但根据我的经验，我仍然让设计团队使用 Figma 进行初步设计工作。我发现 AI 无法有效地设计出独特的网站，例如便当盒风格(Bento)设计，除了标准的 SaaS 类型模板网站或外观良好且已预先设计的开源 shadcn 类型网站之外。
英文原文
That's a really fair anecdotal response. Even despite personally using opus to code UI/frontends, I still have my design teams use figma for the initial design work from my experience. I haven't found AI able to effectively design unique websites well, eg. bento designs, aside from the standard SaaS type template-websites or good looking open source shadcn type websites that are already pre-designed.
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Circle 估值具吸引力，看好 USDC 印钞能力并长期持有。
$CRCL 不属于软件板块。由于监管严格，你无法通过“氛围编程”(vibe code) 来开发基于美国的稳定币。此次抛售主要源于更广泛的数字资产情绪、《清晰法案》(Clarity Act) 对利率的影响（这类似于交易所如 $COIN 中人们存放 USDC 存款的情况），以及潜在的降息预期。我发现尽管股价下跌超过 50%，流通供应量仍保持在约 700 亿美元以上，因此认为 $54 的 $CRCL 极具吸引力。话虽如此，我长期持有 Circle，因为我确实认为 USDC 是一台印钞机。
英文原文
$CRCL is not put in the software bucket. You can't vibe code US based stablecoins because it's highly regulated. The selloff was mainly do to broader digital asset sentiment, clarity act interest rate (proxies to exchanges like $COIN where ppl keep USDC deposits), and potential rate cuts. I just found circulating supply was the same above ~$70B despite the stock selling off 50%+ and found $CRCL at $54 to be highly attractive. That being said I am long Circle for the long run because I do think USDC is a money printer.