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买入$SIMO，看好其NAND控制器双寡头地位及AI存储市场扩张。
$SIMO 作为 NAND 敞口是另一个我今天建仓的交易思路。 SIMO 在 merchant controllers（独立控制器）领域与 Phison 形成事实上的双寡头垄断，主要客户包括： - Samsung - SK Hynix - $MU - $WDC - Kioxia - YMTC 等。 - 营收：2025年Q4达到2.785亿美元（同比+46%，环比+15%）。 - 毛利率：~49.2% - 净利润：~4770万美元（同比+107%）。 - 净现金：2.771亿美元，无债务。 但管理层宣布2026年将是公司历史上营收最高的一年。 他们指引2026年Q1营收在2.92亿-3.06亿美元之间，该季度同比增长率为+76%-84%。 他们也开始向一家“领先的AI GPU制造商”（可能是 $NVDA）出货企业级启动盘，这扩大了其 TAM（总可服务市场）。 随着内存制造商转向 HBM，他们基本上将部分 SSD 控制器领域（如移动/消费级）外包，因此现在相当一部分独家来自 Silicon Motion。 因此，你拥有一家盈利、无债、毛利率约50%的公司，从 NAND 体积需求中获利，同时将其 TAM 扩展到高毛利的 Nvidia 和 AI 企业存储管道。 虽然它并不直接从所有 NAND 涨价中获利（但可以自行提价），但这感觉像是内存领域一个相当不对称的顺风/后门玩法。 在45.6亿美元市值和低于20倍远期市盈率（假设12亿美元营收/6.5美元每股收益）下，入场稍晚。但鉴于 TAM 扩展和内存超级周期，上行空间似乎很有吸引力。
英文原文
$SIMO for NAND exposure is another trade idea that I took positions in today. SIMO operates effectively as a duopoly (alongside Phison) for merchant controllers and supplies basically: - Samsung - SK Hynix - $MU - $WDC - Kioxia - YMTC, and others. - Revenue: Q4 2025 reached $278.5 million (+46% yoy and +15% qoq). - Gross Margins: ~49.2% - Net Income: ~$47.7 million (up 107% YoY). - Net Cash: $277.1 million, no debt. But, management announced 2026 will be the highest revenue year in the company’s history. They guided Q1 2026 revenue to between $292m-$306m, which is +76%-84% YoY growth rate for the quarter. They also started shipments to a "Leading AI GPU maker" likely $NVDA for enterprise boot drives, which is TAM expansion. Memory makers basically outsourcing parts of the SSD controller spaces (eg. mobile/consumer) as they shift to HBM so now quite a bit is sourced exclusively from Silicon Motion. So you have a profitable, debt-free company with ~50% gross margins profiting off of NAND volume demand, while expanding its TAM into high-margin Nvidia and AI enterprise storage pipelines. While it doesn't exactly profit from all the NAND hikes (but can do price hikes of its own), it feels like a pretty asymmetrical tailwind/backdoor plays for memory. At a $4.56B MC and under 20x forward earnings (assuming, $1.2B rev/$6.5 EPS), it's a little later to the game. But upside seems compelling given TAM expansion and the memory supercycle.
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作者改变观点，因看好量子计算前景及INFQ在量子传感的应用而买入。
如果你读过我之前的帖子，你会知道我从一开始就一直在唱空 $IONQ、$RGTI 和 $QBTS。然而，仅从行业讨论来看，我接触到的所有人都知道这一天终将到来。感觉这只是时间问题，无论是2年还是5年。我一直在关注 $GOOGL Willow 和其他突破，但之前没有发现值得冒险的纯量子计算标的。不过，我决定买入 $INFQ。至于“应用”，主要涉及国家安全，商业化感觉不强。例如破解加密，因此政府有巨大动力资助该领域的研究。但你可以看到 $INFQ 在量子传感方面的其他应用。
英文原文
If you've read my previous posts, I've been bear posting $IONQ, $RGTI, $QBTS since the dawn of time. However, just from industry discussions, everyone I've talked to seems to know it's coming. It's feels like a matter of time, whether it's 2 years or 5. I've been watching $GOOGL Willow and other breakthroughs, but there hasn't been any pure play exposure I thought it was worth to take the risk on. But decided to pull the trigger with $INFQ. As for "applications" it's largely national security and doesn't feel very commercial. Eg. breaking encryption, so Governments have a huge incentive to fund research into this area. But you can see other applications with $INFQ + quantum sensing.
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因具备中性原子技术优势及军方应用，决定配置少量 $INFQ 仓位。
决定做多 $INFQ。 Infleqtion 是我一直关注的一家全新的量子计算(Quantum Computing) IPO 公司。 像 $IONQ（市值 110 亿美元+）或 $RGTI（市值 51 亿美元）这样的量子概念股通常享有高溢价（基于离子阱/超导量子比特技术）。 但 Infleqtion 是首家上市的纯中性原子量子计算(neutral-atom quantum computing)标的。 虽然大多数同类公司仍属投机性质，但 Infleqtion 已有实际应用场景，其量子传感(quantum sensing)部门及量子光学钟、射频接收器和惯性传感器等产品已被 NASA 和美军采用。 我对量子计算概念股一直持谨慎态度，因为该领域尤其不能基于传统的市盈率(P/E)、市销率(P/S)进行估值。 但该技术及其带来的国家安全风险意义重大，且外国政府正大量投入该领域。而 $INFQ 似乎处于领先地位。 因此，我个人决定配置一小部分仓位于 Infleqtion ($INFQ)，以此作为对量子计算领域的敞口。
英文原文
Decided to go long on $INFQ. Infleqtion is a brand new Quantum Computing IPO that I've been watching. Quantum names like: $IONQ ($11B+) or $RGTI ($5.1B) typically command large premiums (trapped-ion/superconducting qubits). But, Infleqtion is the first public pure-play in neutral-atom quantum computing. While most others are speculative, Inflection already has use cases as their quantum sensing division + products like quantum optical clocks, RF receivers, and inertial sensors, are utilized by NASA and the US military. I've been erring on the side of caution on Quantum Computing names, as Quantum especially, is not valued based on traditional P/E, P/S. But the technology + national security risks are monumental, and foreign governments are pouring money into the space. And $INFQ seems to be head of the game. As a result, I personally decided allocate a small percentage toward Infleqtion ( $INFQ ) as exposure to quantum computing.
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建议OpenAI收购树莓派以通过预装API实现硬件级锁定。
说实话，@sama 应该收购树莓派(Raspberry Pi)，并在其硬件推广中销售预装 OpenClaw（使用 OpenAI API）的设备。 这是实现类似苹果(Apple)那样硬件级锁定效应的极低成本（<11亿美元）。 MiniMax 及其竞争对手将从树莓派和 Mac mini 上的 OpenClaw 类部署中获益最多。出厂即预集成 ChatGPT 将提高采用率，并增加其他竞争者的进入摩擦。
英文原文
Honestly, @sama should buy Raspberry Pi and sell predeployed OpenClaw using OpenAI APIs in their hardware push. Very cheap price to pay (<$1.1B) for hardware level lock-in like what Apple does. Minimax and their competitors benefiting the most from OpenClaw type deployments on Pi and Mac minis. Having a ChatGPT pre integrated off the bat would increase adoption and increase friction for others.
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看好$RPI独特市场机会，关注其执行效率。
@tech_signals 是的，我对 @Raspberry_Pi 也有同样的想法。 $RPI 拥有极其独特的市场机会和总可服务市场(TAM)。如果他们采纳你的建议并付诸行动，就能轻松利用这股势头。 我不确定英国公司是否能像美国超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers)那样行动迅速，但让我们拭目以待。
英文原文
@tech_signals Yes I was thinking the same thing for @Raspberry_Pi. $RPI has an extremely unique market opportunity and TAM. They could easy capitalize on the momentum with your suggestion, if they act on it. I’m not sure if UK companies move as fast as US hyperscalers but we’ll see.
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RPI 受 OpenClaw 影响波动剧烈，虽仍处下跌趋势但值得关注后续走向。
是的，成交量确实惊人，OpenClaw 确实给某些股票带来了很多关注。 如果 $RPI 能回到每天波动几个点的状态，我会更安心。连续两天上涨 28% 有点太疯狂了。 话虽如此，即使有了新的 OpenClaw 催化剂，它自去年以来仍下跌了 31%，但很好奇它接下来会走向何方。
英文原文
Yeah the volume is insane, OpenClaw really brings a lot of attention to certain stocks. I’d be more relieved if $RPI starts going back to moving a few percent a day. Having back to back 28% increases is a bit wild. That being said even with the new OpenClaw catalysts, it’s still down 31% since last year, but curious to see where it heads.
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媒体引用其树莓派AI硬件论点，看好代理式AI本地编排趋势。
很酷，《卫报》引用了我关于树莓派(Raspberry Pi)的论点。 先是路透社，然后是彭博社、经济时报，现在轮到《卫报》了！ OpenClaw🦞真的病毒式传播，彻底改变了关于树莓派($RPI)和MiniMax(HKG: 0100)的叙事。 随着OpenAI的收购，看起来代理式AI(agentic AI)和本地编排(local orchestration)硬件只会从这里开始增长。 我只是在评论人们视而不见的结构性转变，正如我们进入AI应用的新前沿。
英文原文
It’s cool “The Guardian” cited my thesis on Raspberry Pi. First Reuters, then Bloomberg, Economic Times, and now The Guardian! OpenClaw🦞 really went viral and transformed the narrative on Raspberry Pi ( $RPI ) and Minimax (HKG: 0100). Following the OpenAI acquisition, it looks like agentic AI and local orchestration hardware is only growing from here. I’m just commentating on structural shifts people miss in plain sight, as we enter a new frontier in AI applications.
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因英伟达入股，开始关注诺科，暂无明确观点。
@ak_dfranco 由于我对该公司了解不够，目前对 $NOK 尚无方向性观点。但在 $NVDA 入股后，我确实正在关注它。
英文原文
@ak_dfranco No directional opinion yet on $NOK since I don’t know enough about the company. But definitely taking a look after $NVDA took a stake.
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OpenClaw催化$RPI大涨，市场重估其作为AI智能体硬件领导者的潜力。
$RPI 又上涨了 27.47%。 OpenClaw 是主要催化剂： 展示了人们对树莓派（Raspberry Pi）的狂热追捧，其具备 -廉价 -可大规模生产 -隔离硬件 的特点，非常适合扩展 AI 智能体编排和集群。 市场正在结构性重估树莓派，将其视为这一新型智能体硬件市场的潜在领导者。 通过 AI 智能体在互联网上智能自动化人类行为，其规模涵盖 -1000人 -1000万人 -1万亿人 这是一个全新的市场规模（TAM）概念。 随着不同版本的 OpenClaw 和树莓派的出现，我们首次见证了这种真实的可能性。
英文原文
$RPI is now up another 27.47%. OpenClaw is the primary catalyst: Demonstrating a Raspberry Pi frenzy for -cheap -mass producible -isolated hardware that is ideal for scaling AI agent orchestration and swarms. Markets are structurally re-rating Raspberry Pi as the potential leader for this new market category of agentic hardware. Intelligently automating human behavior across the internet representing -1000 people -10 million people - 1 trillion people with AI agents is a scale and TAM that is extremely new to think about. And we’re witnessing that real possibility for the first time with different OpenClaw versions and Raspberry Pi.
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回应网友并警告某风投ETF持仓集中度高且估值过高的风险。
@DeMarco575 我的朋友 Pepe 很酷！人们有权做出自己的决定。我只是在警告，关于这只风险投资基金 ETF，像 Stripe/Revolut 等公司在刚刚募集的峰值估值中存在多数集中度风险。
英文原文
@DeMarco575 My friend Pepe is cool! People are free to make their own decisions. I'm just warning about majority concentration in freshly raised peak valuations for companies like Stripe/Revolut, etc. regarding this venture fund ETF.
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Stripe估值1400亿太高，看好Clickhouse等私募标的。
@munchPRMR 像 PayPal、Robinhood、Coinbase、Ayden 这样的金融科技(Fintech)公司都经历了大幅回撤。而 Stripe 呢？估值 1400 亿美元。坚决不碰(Hard pass)。还有很多其他私募融资(Private raises)可能会继续走高，尤其是像 Clickhouse 或 Lightmatter 这样的公司。
英文原文
@munchPRMR Every fintech firm like PayPal, Robinhood, Coinbase, Ayden had a major drawdown. Stripe on the other hand? $140B. Hard pass. There’s a lot of other private raises that would likely keep going higher, especially ones like Clickhouse or Lightmatter.
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建议避开估值虚高的Robinhood投资组合。
@ejdisokqaloa 真不敢相信我忘了我最喜欢的 Clickhouse 和 $NBIS！是的，我会把它们也列在上面。主要观点是 Robinhood Venture 投资组合高度集中在那些刚刚以膨胀估值完成融资的公司上。我个人建议完全避开。
英文原文
@ejdisokqaloa Can't believe I forgot about my favorite Clickhouse and $NBIS! Yeah I would include them up there. Main point was that the Robinhood Venture portfolio was highly concentrated in companies that just raised at inflated valuations. Would personally just stay away completely.
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警告$RVI持仓集中于高估值公司，建议远离。
Robinhood Ventures $RVI 是一个巨大的危险信号。 $HOOD 重仓了那些在估值虚高时完成融资的公司，例如： - Stripe @ 1400亿美元 - Databricks @ 1340亿美元 - Revolut @ 750亿美元 一个真正的风险投资基金应该看起来像这样： 1. Lightmatter 2. Cerebras 3. SiFive 4. Anduril 5. Anthropic 6. World Labs 7. Fireblocks 8. Bytedance 9. Discord 10. Physical Intelligence 以及其他公司。 该基金的大部分仓位集中在刚刚以极高估值完成融资的公司上。 我会离它远远的，绝不碰。
英文原文
Robinhood Ventures $RVI, is a major red flag. $HOOD concentrates in firms that raised at inflated valuations like: - Stripe @ $140B - Databricks @ $134B - Revolut @ $75B A real venture fund would look like: 1. Lightmatter 2. Cerebras 3. SiFive 4. Anduril 5. Anthropic 6. World Labs 7. Fireblocks 8. Bytedance 9. Discord 10. Physical Intelligence amid others. Majority of this fund is concentrated in firms that freshly raised extremely high valuations. I would not touch this from a mile away.
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澄清树莓派在AI部署中的成本优势及生态护城河，看好其B2B市场扩张。
我认为这忽略了细微差别，我来解释一下： 将台式电脑级别的 N150 迷你主机与树莓派(Raspberry Pi)进行比较时存在性能谬误。新的基于 AI 智能体(AI Agent)的部署优化的是每个隔离节点的成本，而非原始计算性能。 至于其他竞争对手如 Orange Pi，树莓派拥有生态系统护城河。Orange Pi 的开发者生态系统简直是噩梦。 例如：“完全缺乏支持，Orange Pi 基本已死”。 这就是为什么人们默认选择树莓派，因为大家都在围绕它进行开发，且极其稳定。 至于教育/爱好者市场，消费者约占收入的 1/3。当人们扩展数十甚至数百个隔离的 $RPI 硬件部署（包括 B2B 用例）时，总可寻址市场(TAM)大幅扩张。 但回到前面的观点，这相当于选择 iPhone 还是某款性能基准更好的亚洲手机。
英文原文
I think that's missing the nuance, will help explain: There's a performance fallacy when you compare desktop-like N150 mini PCs with raspberry pis. New AI agent based deployments optimize around for cost per isolated node, not raw compute performance. As for other competitors like Orange Pi, there's a ecosystem moat around Raspberry Pis. Orange Pis is a nightmare developer ecosystem. Eg: "Total lack of support, OrangePi is basically dead" That's why people defaults to Raspberry PIs, since everyone's been developing around them + extremely stable. As for education/hobbyist, consumer is ~1/3rd of the revenue. TAM just expanded immensely when people scale up tens or possibly hundreds of isolated $RPI hardware deployments, including for B2B use cases. But going back to the earlier point, it's the equivalent of choosing an iphone vs. some phone from Asia that has better performance benchmarks.
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MiniMax和RPI是OpenClaw交易最大受益者，需研究S。
@Baltachi_com 我认为 OpenClaw 交易最大的两个受益者其实是 MiniMax (HKG: 0100) 和 $RPI，两者都上涨了约 60%。 其余如 $AAPL（可能还有 $TWLO）体量太大，难以产生实质性影响。 需要研究一下 $S。
英文原文
@Baltachi_com I'd say the two biggest beneficiaries of the OpenClaw trade is actually Minimax (HKG: 0100) and $RPI, which are both up ~60% together. The rest like $AAPL are a bit too big (and probably $TWLO ) to make a material impact. Will need to take a look into $S.
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机构验证树莓派转型AI基建，CEO回购，后续看执行。
彭博社关于树莓派（$RPI）及 OpenClaw/PicoClaw/NanoClaw 论点的报道： 在对 Montanaro Asset Management 基金经理 Adam Montanaro 的采访中： “从主题上看，树莓派从爱好者开发板演变为 AI 基础设施的核心组件，这一趋势是正确的。” 彭博社的 Henry Ren 也表示： “树莓派的另一个利好是，创始人兼首席执行官 Eben Upton 近期频繁回购股票，文件显示自 1 月下旬以来他已分五次买入。” 很高兴看到机构验证了树莓派从教育类爱好者开发板向 AI 硬件编排核心基础设施的转型。 话虽如此，其余部分取决于公司能否通过执行落地，在 AI 智能体（AI Agents）领域拓展其新的总可服务市场（TAM）。
英文原文
Bloomberg on the Raspberry Pi ( $RPI ) and the OpenClaw / PicoClaw / NanoClaw thesis: In their interview with Adam Montanaro, a fund manager at Montanaro Asset Management: "Thematically the evolution of a Raspberry Pi from hobbyist board into a core piece of AI infrastructure is correct" Henry Ren from Bloomberg also stated: "Another positive for Raspberry Pi has been a rash of share purchases by founder and Chief Executive Officer Eben Upton, who has bought stock on five separate occasions since late January, filings show." It's great to see institutional validation of Raspberry Pi's transition from educational hobbyist boards into core infrastructure for AI hardware orchestration. That being said, the rest depends on the company's execution to grow into their new TAM with AI agents.
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回复网友表示赞同并觉得有趣。
@KawzInvests 你说得对！看到这一点非常酷。https://t.co/AcTUWegbdj
英文原文
@KawzInvests You're right! Very cool to see. https://t.co/AcTUWegbdj
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澄清AI代理编排需隔离硬件环境，反驳本地运行LLM的误解。
@coinsearch71105 实际上，市场对隔离硬件环境的需求非常高。具体来说，是AI代理编排(AI agent orchestration)。人们有一个误解，认为你在本地运行大语言模型(LLM)推理。OpenClaw是通过API与Minimax或Claude进行交互的。
英文原文
@coinsearch71105 There's actually very high demand for isolated hardware environments. In specifically, AI agent orchestration. People make the misconception that you run LLM inference locally. OpenClaw interfaces with an API to Minimax or Claude.
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看好$RPI在AI边缘计算中的早期势头及市场机会，决定顺势参与。
谢谢，$RPI 目前捕捉到了早期的势头。特别是随着 OpenClaw 的轻量级版本（如 picoclaw/nanoclaw）的出现。我们正目睹总可寻址市场(TAM)的巨大扩张，类似于 $NVDA 从游戏 GPU 向 AI GPU 转型时的场景。但在上游更广泛的内存供应受限背景下，执行力才是真正捕获该 TAM 的关键。我不确定这会演变成短期的病毒式潮流，还是在一年后在树莓派上部署 AI 编排(AI Orchestration)仍将是标准做法。但我看到了市场机会，所以我会顺势而为，看看事态如何发展。
英文原文
Thank you, $RPI has captured the early momentum right now. Especially with lighter OpenClaw versions like picoclaw/nanoclaw. We're seeing a massive TAM expansion like when $NVDA transitioned from GPUs for gaming to GPUs for AI. But execution is what matters the most to actually capture that TAM while there's broader memory supply constraints upstream. No clue how this turns out whether it's a short term viral trend or if deploying AI orchestration on Raspberry Pi remains the standard 1 year out. But I see the market opportunity, so I'm along for the ride to see where it goes.
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树莓派因AI智能体编排需求激增，正从教育公司重估为AI硬件公司。
很高兴我的 $RPI x OpenClaw 🦞 论点被路透社报道。 树莓派（Raspberry Pi）廉价教育板的市场规模（TAM）一夜之间扩大了。 因为它们已成为 $AAPL Mac Mini 的更廉价标准，用于 AI 智能体编排（AI Agent Orchestration）+ AI 集群（AI Swarms）。 树莓派在廉价板卡领域拥有事实上的垄断地位，因为它们最初针对的是教育用途。 几乎没有公司有需求（或动力）在该领域与之竞争。 市场目前正在重新评估一家曾经只卖 1-2 块板用于测试的教育公司。 将其视为一家销售可大规模生产的 AI 智能体编排板卡的 AI 硬件公司。
英文原文
Glad my $RPI x OpenClaw 🦞thesis made it to Reuters. Raspberry Pi’s cheap educational boards had a TAM expansion overnight. As they’ve become the cheaper standard for AI Agent Orchestration + AI Swarms alongside the $AAPL Mac Mini. Raspberry Pi has a de facto monopoly in the cheap board space as they were targeting educational use purposes. And almost no company had a need (or incentive) to compete in that space. Markets are currently rerating an education company that used to sell 1-2 boards for testing. Into an AI hardware company that sells mass producible boards for AI Agent Orchestration.
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分析存储芯片期权隐含波动率被低估，预期将维持高位。
我指的是两年期期权，而非30天到期(30DTE)的期权。但正如你所指出的，短期内波动性普遍更高。我展示的最可能情景是：三星(Samsung)和SK海力士(SK Hynix)各自的隐含波动率(IV)在55-75之间，且占指数权重的50%。做市商(MMs)此前定价基于5-10年的历史数据，当时指数停滞且预期均值回归，而非三星/SK海力士在新存储交易中的波动性。我使用多个期权数据源，Robinhood因对散户最直观易引而常被提及。但如果IV回落至32%，我就错了；但在我看来，由于波动率和上行空间存在巨大定价偏差，IV很可能维持高位。
英文原文
I’m talking about 2 year dated options, not 30dte. But as you’re referencing, there’s more short term volatility in general. Most likely scenario I’m showing is Samsung/SK Hynix individually are around IV 55-75 and make up 50% of the index. MMs were pricing in 5-10 year historical values where the index was stagnant + expecting a reversion to mean, rather than the new memory trade volatility in Samsung/Sk Hynix. I use multiple option sources, Robinhood is the easiest to cite visually to retail. But if IV drops back to 32% I would be wrong but it will likely remain much higher since that’s a huge mispricing of volatility/upside from my view.
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反驳观点，指出IV普遍上涨，但承认期权价差扩大可能是混淆因素。
我不同意，我认为隐含波动率(IV)确实出现了重估上涨，因为你可以看到每个虚值(OTM)合约的IV变化。我最初发帖时IV为32%，此后整体IV肯定已升至约38-39%。2027年LEAPS的IV值也从30%出头升至40%多。但正如你所说，期权价差(Option Spreads)大得多，这可能是一个混淆因素。
英文原文
I disagree, I see genuine repricing up of IV, since you can see the IV changes reflected across each OTM contract. I originally posted it at 32% IV and it’s definitely increased since then ~38-39 IV across the board. IV values have increased for 2027 leaps as well from low 30s to 40s. But as you mentioned the option spreads are a lot wider and might be confounding factor
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博主对路透社提及自己账号表示荣幸。
@SliwinskiA @GachaDiff 看到像我自己这样的随机 X 账号被路透社点名提及，我感到非常荣幸。
英文原文
@SliwinskiA @GachaDiff Flattered to see a random X account like myself getting name dropped by Reuters.
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博主称凭借超强记忆力可高效跟踪多只股票及期权信息。
@ponzisseur 不知为何，我对财务信息有着近乎照相式的记忆。因此，我能够跟踪40多只股票/期权链，并在有新消息出现时将信息串联起来。
英文原文
@ponzisseur I have a weird close to photographic memory for financial information somehow. Hence why I’m able to follow 40+ stocks/option chains and just map information together when new things come out.
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利用韩国指数期权定价错误，做多$EWY看涨期权以捕捉存储周期波动率扩张。
指数下跌-2.46%。整个期权链全线飘红+13-20%。 这就是当你发现做市商在期权链中存在定价错误时会发生的情况。 话虽如此，隐含波动率(IV)回升至更合理的38-39%，但个别组件（SK海力士、三星）的波动率可能仍有几个百分点的偏差。 （引用内容翻译）： 我发布在“淋浴思考”频道的交易思路： 韩国指数波动率套利并利用布莱克-斯科尔斯模型。 $EWY 看涨期权似乎存在定价错误。 这是贝莱德旗下的韩国指数，主要由存储芯片（三星电子、SK海力士）构成。 尽管该指数被定价为普通指数的隐含波动率，但个股每日波动2-5%+，且1年涨幅达136.25%。 三星波动剧烈。SK海力士波动剧烈（例如预估65%-80%）。 但通过指数组合后的定价远低于低贝塔值的 $GOOGL (37.33%) 和 $AMZN (39.12%)，隐含波动率仅约32%。 我观察 $EWY 一段时间，它确实看起来波动很大。 至于定价，我猜测做市商(MM)基于历史平均值（5-10年）定价隐含波动率，当时韩国指数完全持平。他们预期两年后的看涨期权会回归均值。 但这种波动率应成为新常态，因为市场正在定价新的存储超级周期（例如 $TSM 从30% IV升至46.2% IV）。 看涨期权将从三星+SK海力士带动指数上涨中受益。 主要好处是你能获得 $KORU 无法提供的 Vega 扩张。 你也无法像美国个股那样获得这种期权做市商的压盘效应，因为这是韩国国家指数且期限较长。 简而言之：个别组件SK海力士+三星具有高波动性。 它们基本占指数的一半，但指数期权以低波动率定价，或许是因为基于过去5-10年的历史数据。 看涨期权将从未正确定价的 Vega 扩张中受益，因为做市商的前瞻波动率估计过于锚定于历史已实现波动率，而过去5-10年 $EWY 的波动率很低。
英文原文
Index down -2.46%. The entire option chain green +13-20%. This is what happens when when you find mispricing in option chains by market makers. That being said it’s a more respectable 38-39% IV, but maybe few percent off (SK Hynix, Samsung) individual components volatility still.
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博主调侃自己频繁被媒体引用，但无法阅读路透社文章。
@GachaDiff 我不确定为什么我最近在很多文章里都被提到，哈哈。路透社那篇挺有意思的，但我读不到！https://t.co/6dy0Poq6jP
英文原文
@GachaDiff Im not sure why im in a lot of articles nowadays lol. The Reuters one is interesting though I can’t read it! https://t.co/6dy0Poq6jP
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RPI因AI新用例成垄断者，正通过涨价转嫁内存成本。
是的，他们在廉价硬件板领域曾是事实上的垄断者，因为主要用途是教育。没人真的想或需要去竞争。随后，AI 智能体编排(AI agent orchestration)的新用例一夜之间出现，使 $RPI 成为领导者。他们一直在对 RPI 5 等板卡进行涨价，以避免内存成本侵蚀利润。我相当确定他们也有库存，但不太确定这会如何演变。
英文原文
Yeah, they were a defacto monopoly for cheap hardware boards because it was mainly for education purposes. Nobody really wanted or needed to compete. Then a new use case for AI agent orchestration came up overnight and made $RPI the leader. They've been price hiking boards like RPI 5 so they don't eat up memory costs. Pretty sure they have stockpiles too, but not quite sure how that plays out.
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$RPI 因教育硬件垄断意外成为 AI 智能体编排硬件领导者。
是的，$RPI 意外地在一夜之间成为 AI 智能体编排硬件的领导者，这简直太搞笑了。 他们几乎垄断了廉价硬件市场，因为他们的初衷是为了教育目的。（没人愿意或需要与之竞争）。 结果发现，这在 AI 智能体集群中还有另一个应用场景。
英文原文
Yeah it's hilarious how $RPI accidentally became the leader in hardware for orchestration of AI agents overnight. They were almost a monopoly for cheap hardware because they wanted to do it for education purposes. (nobody else wanted or needed to compete). Turns out that has another use case in AI agent swarms.
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指出LSE交易因缺乏暗池和期权使价格发现更自然。
@CapSimplified 没有期权，这是在伦敦证券交易所(LSE)交易的。但我确实认为，鉴于缺乏暗池和期权链，这使得价格发现更加自然。
英文原文
@CapSimplified There are no options, this is traded on LSE. But I do find it makes price discovery more natural, given there's a lack of dark pools and option chains.
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RPI估值便宜，已成AI代理硬件龙头。
@CoffeeStocksGuy 不，是10.2亿美元。但考虑到$RPI已一夜之间成为AI代理编排硬件的领导者，并成为“代理蜂群”的默认代理标的，我认为这非常便宜。
英文原文
@CoffeeStocksGuy Nope, it's $1.02B. But that's very cheap to me considering $RPI has become the leader for AI agent orchestration hardware overnight and defacto proxy play for the "Agentic Swarms".