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反驳FT将$RPI归为迷因股，强调其基本面驱动及OpenClaw需求带来的实质影响。
《金融时报》关于 $RPI 的报道似乎别有用心。特别是将“树莓派(Raspberry Pi)”框定为“迷因股(Meme stock)”的做法。 1. 文中对空头(shorts)只字未提。 2. 这与 $GME 的逼空+持有“迷因股”叙事完全无关。 这是由实质性营收变化驱动的资金流入(informed flow)。 尤其是当树莓派已经是一家盈利公司时。 我原话如下： “ - 营收约 2.8 亿 -3 亿美元 - 毛利润(Gross Profit)约 7500 万美元以上 - 毛利率(Gross Margin)约 25% - 净利润(Net income)：约 1000 万 -1500 万美元 - 净现金(Net Cash)：2800 万美元” 分析师目前预测营收增长接近 14-17%。 但如果需求涌入持续，随着囤货行为继续，营收增速可能从 14% 跃升至温和的 48-55%。 ” $AAPL Mac mini 已知被囤积用于 OpenClaw 部署。但苹果设备采购对这家 3.7 万亿美元市值的公司影响微乎其微。 $RPI 是 OpenClaw 智能体编排(agentic orchestration)的另一款首选硬件，导致需求激增。 但由于市值较小，需求激增确实会产生实质性影响。 这纯粹是基本面营收增长和新可寻址市场(new addressable market)。 在完全未提及空头的情况下，将其框定为围绕挤压对手空头的 $GME 式反弹，是别有用心的。
英文原文
The Financial Times piece on $RPI seems disingenuous. Especially the framing of "Raspberry Pi" as a Meme stock. 1. There's been 0 mentions about shorts 2. It's completely unrelated to $GME's short squeeze + hold "meme-stock" narratives. This is informed flow from material revenue changes. Especially when Raspberry Pi is an already profitable company. My exact quote verbatim: " - ~$280M- $300M revenue - ~$75M+ Gross Profit - ~25% Gross Margin - Net income: ~$10M - $15M - Net Cash: $28M" Analysts currently project revenue growth closer to 14–17%. But if the demand influx continues, we might see revenue numbers might hit increase from 14% growth to a modest 48-55% if hoarding continues. " $AAPL mac minis has been known to be hoarded for OpenClaw deployments. But Apple devices purchases have little material impact on a $3.7T company. $RPI is the other leading hardware of choice for OpenClaw agentic orchestration, causing a surge of demand. But due to the market cap, a surge in demand increase does have a material impact. This is purely fundamental revenue increases and a new addressable market. Framing it as $GME-type rally around squeezing opposition shorts, when there's been 0 mentions of shorts whatsoever is disingenuous.
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批评平台算法偏好引流外链，呼吁调整激励机制以扶持真实内容。
@nikitabier 核心观点是：外部链接引流（部分隐含）目前在财经社区中被优先推荐，胜过真正的内容/分析帖子。激励机制应进行调整，以优先展示真实内容，而非那些仅利用 X 平台为竞争网站做广告的影响者。
英文原文
@nikitabier Point was: external link funnels (some implicit) are now being shown as recommended over genuine content/analysis posts in the finance community. Incentive structure should change to prioritize genuine content over influencers who just use X to advertise competing websites.
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批评X算法激励错位，过度推广外部链接而非留住用户。
这与其说是关于变现，不如说是关于内容可见度。每个外部链接引流漏斗都有数万次浏览，每次都会在“为你推荐”时间线上获得推广（真正的金融内容），并且每天被刷屏数十次。重点是算法激励似乎错位，应该奖励那些留在 X 平台上的用户，而不是纯粹将流量导向竞争对手。
英文原文
It’s less about monetization, more about content visibility. Each external link funnel has tens of thousands of views, gets promoted each time on for you timelines (genuine finx content), and gets spammed tens of times a day. Point was algorithm incentives seem misaligned and should be rewarding those who stay dedicated to X instead of purely funneling to competitors.
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吐槽X平台算法不公，推广垃圾广告而压制普通金融博主。
@nikitabier 兄弟，先修好 Substack 的垃圾信息问题。我不明白为什么 X 要推广 Michael Burry 发布的数百条外部链接广告，而普通金融博主在“为你推荐”中的可见度却更低。
英文原文
@nikitabier Bro fix the substack spam first. Not sure why x is promoting Michael burry spamming hundreds of external link ads but regular finx have less visibility in for you
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博主对论文被媒体引用感到既尴尬又欣慰。
被提到这种内容真的超级尴尬（笑）！不过，自己的论文被媒体引用还是让人开心的。这多少也算是一种有效性的证明吧。
英文原文
@beauty_oe こういうの取り上げられると超恥ずかしいんだけど（笑）！でも、自分の論文がメディアで引用されてるのは嬉しいな。ちょっとは妥当性の証明になるし。
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Minimax在特定任务有用，但西方前沿模型在先进推理上大幅领先。
@RenoHemonc 是的，它确实有真正有用的用例，基本上就是 Openclaw（Minimax + 树莓派常见配置）所需的任务。 但在解决新问题的先进推理方面，西方前沿模型(Leading Frontier Models)都大幅领先。
英文原文
@RenoHemonc Yep, it has genuinely helpful use cases basically tasks required by Openclaw (Minimax + raspberry pi common setup). But for advanced reasoning in new problems, Western frontier models are all leading by considerable amounts.
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转发链接，无具体投资观点。
@MaxLeveredBeta SWE-rebench https://t.co/mfkQERK9vT
英文原文
@MaxLeveredBeta SWE-rebench https://t.co/mfkQERK9vT
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新基准显示中国AI模型在深度推理上大幅落后西方，数据与架构成瓶颈。
一项新基准显示，中国AI模型（Kimi、Minimax、DeepSeek）落后于西方前沿AI模型的程度远超市场预期。 Opus、Gemini和GPT的大语言模型(LLM)被证明处于领先地位。 名为SWE-rebench的新基准使用了新的GitHub任务： -> Minimax声称在原始SWE-bench上得分为80.2%。 -> 在未污染的SWE-rebench上，其得分暴跌至39.6%。 结论： 中国实验室已有效以极低成本解决了单提示推理和离散编码任务。 然而，长期行为所需的架构和高质量数据仍是严重瓶颈，蒸馏和优化基准无法伪造。 研究表明，中国模型在超大规模云服务商拥有的深度、适应性推理方面存在滞后。
英文原文
A new benchmark shows Chinese AI models (Kimi, Minimax, DeepSeek) are much further behind Western frontier AI models than markets expect. LLMs from Opus, Gemini, GPT and are shown to be leading. A new benchmark called SWE-rebench uses new GitHub tasks: -> Minimax claimed 80.2% on the original SWE-bench. -> On the uncontaminated SWE-rebench, it crashed to 39.6%. The takeaway: Chinese labs have effectively solved single-prompt reasoning and discrete coding tasks at a fraction of the cost. However, the architecture and high-quality data required for long-horizon behavior remain a severe bottleneck that distillation and optimizing for benchmarks cannot fake. Chinese models are shown to be lagging to the deep, adaptable reasoning that US hyperscalers have.
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解析InP供应链双瓶颈，指出AXTI因掌控全产业链而受益。
我认为细微差别在于存在两个不同的瓶颈。一个是原料/精炼加工，另一个是磷化铟(InP)衬底。住友/ $COHR 处于其中一个环节，但同样受到如7N非标准铟等原料定价的影响。我个人最看好 $AXTI 的原因是他们身处两个不同的瓶颈环节，因为他们拥有整个供应链并受益于价格上涨。全球大部分上游原料来自Vital或由AXT衍生。
英文原文
I think the nuance is that there’s two different bottlenecks. One is feedstock/refinery processing. The other is InP substrates. Sumitomo/ $COHR sits in one of them but are affected by feedstock pricing like 7n indium nonstandard. The reason I personally like $AXTI the most is because they sit in two different bottlenecks since they own the entire supply chain and benefit from price hikes. Most of the worlds upstream feedstock come from Vital or are derived from AXT
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博主对开心果供应链颠覆潜力表示兴趣，但无持仓。
@SingularityRes 开心果(Pistachios)的历史非常有趣！我个人目前没有做多，但它确实有可能颠覆供应链。我稍后去看看那个视频，纯属娱乐。
英文原文
@SingularityRes Very interesting history on Pistachios! I’m not personally long but it could genuinely disrupt the supply chain. I’ll go give the video a watch later for fun
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博主感谢粉丝的赞美。
@peonyKingOF 谢谢你的美言！
英文原文
@peonyKingOF I appreciate the kind words!
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类比AXTI出口管制，指出开心果虽受地缘影响但仍是弱长投。
@DoctorMeltzer 是的，这与 $AXTI 受到出口管制的情况类似。但伊朗开心果仍然能找到途径进入全球市场。对农业基础设施进行动能打击（Kinetic strikes）会扰乱这一流通。但毫无疑问，开心果是这批标的中较弱的长期投资选择。
英文原文
@DoctorMeltzer Yes, it’s similar to $AXTI being export controlled. But Iran Pistachios still find its way into the global market. Kinetic strikes on agricultural infrastructure would disrupt that flow. But Pistachios is a weaker long for sure out of the bunch.
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调侃HBM瓶颈投资，提及Costco囤货及挖掘小盘股机会。
当然，我不明白为什么在我们有开心果(Pistachios)的情况下，人们还要投资高带宽内存(HBM)瓶颈或磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈。 可以去 $COST 开始囤积它们。 玩笑归玩笑，这是一个较弱的长期看涨逻辑，我会整理一份更深入的受益者名单。 有些像我在委内瑞拉帖子中提到的 Gold Reserve，在发布后一天内就上涨了100%+，所以发现这类小宝藏是很好的。
英文原文
Of course, not sure why people invest in HBM bottlenecks or InP substrate bottlenecks when we have Pistachios. Can go to $COST and start hoarding them. Jokes aside it’s a weaker long, I’ll do a deeper list of beneficiaries. Some like Gold Reserve from the Venezuela post shot up 100%+ a day after, so it’s good to find little treasures like that.
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作者回避原油现货，建议通过XLE做多板块，并持有CVX多头。
不幸的是，我没有深入研究 $WTI，因为石油并非我的专业领域。但如果我预期该板块上涨，像 $XLE 这样的指数方向性多头头寸要容易得多。 不过，自从我发布关于委内瑞拉入侵的帖子后，我一直持有 $CVX 的多头头寸。18-22% 的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility)提供了相当不错的上行空间。
英文原文
Haven’t looked into $WTI, unfortunately oil is not my area of expertise. But if I do expect the sector to go up going index directional longs like $XLE are much easier. I have been chilling in $CVX longs though from my Venezuela invasion post. 18-22% IV presents pretty good upside.
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分析美伊冲突下开心果供应链垄断及石油国防股对冲机会
如果美国入侵伊朗，最有趣的受益者将是：开心果。绝非玩笑。你知道美国（加州）和伊朗在开心果生产上形成了虚拟双头垄断吗？这类似于 $AXTI 在磷化铟(InP)领域的情况，两者控制了全球约70-80%的供应。如果加州成为垄断者，$JBSS 等公司可能会因开心果价格上涨而受益。不幸的是，没有开心果期货，所以我没有建立任何头寸，但这有趣的事实让我觉得好笑，所以想分享出来。我稍后会写一篇关于更细微的二阶效应和潜在做多标的的文章。美国打击似乎很可能，因此标准的石油股如 $CVX 或 $XLS 以及国防股如 $AVAV 或 $ITA 可能是不错的做多/对冲选择。
英文原文
The funniest beneficary if US invades Iran was: Pistachios. Not even joking. Did you know US (California) and Iran operate a virtual duopoly in pistachio production? This is the $AXTI InP situation as the two control ~70-80% of the world’s supply. Companies like $JBSS might benefit from Pistachio prices going up (if California becomes a monopoly) Unfortunately there’s no Pistachio Futures, so I’m not taking any positions but I just found this fun fact amusing, so wanted to share. I’ll do another writeup on more nuanced second order effects and potential longs soon. US strikes seem likely so standard oil like $CVX or $XLS and Defence like $AVAV or $ITA might be good longs/hedges here.
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《清晰法案》破坏加密流动性，市场定价其通过致价格大跌。
@TheValueThinker 阅读其他评论非常有趣，人们仍然不理解《清晰法案》(Clarity Act) 实际上有多具破坏性。它对加密货币不利并抽走流动性。市场正在定价其通过的可能性，这也是价格大幅下跌的主要原因。
英文原文
@TheValueThinker Very interesting reading the other comments that people still don’t understand how damaging the Clarity Act actually is. Is it not good for crypto and drains liquidity. Markets are pricing in it passing, which is largely why prices dropped so much https://t.co/O8lLPuTwal
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博主回应粉丝增长过快，感谢早期支持者。
@soulbiri1 我的粉丝数确实增长得太快了！但我没有忘记在这里最早结识的几位朋友，比如 @platochi、@Neat_Lama 和你。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 My follower count definitely grew too fast! But I haven’t forgotten about my first few friends on here like @platochi, @Neat_Lama, and yourself
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对某观点提出关于代价的质疑。
@zszerosum 但代价是什么？
英文原文
@zszerosum But at what cost?
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博主感谢引用其嘲讽伯瑞做空论点的言论。
@amitisinvesting 谢谢！很荣幸在所有内容中，被引用的竟是一段关于嘲讽伯瑞（Burry）做空论点的文字。
英文原文
@amitisinvesting Thanks! It’s flattering that out of all things, it was a quote about trash talking Burry’s short thesis.
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反驳对$AXT催化剂的邀功论，强调新催化剂与旧持仓的本质区别。
并非如此，他们之前的帖子围绕的是“智能家居和个人助理”，完全没有提及 Openclaw。Openclaw 的变体是在他们发帖之后才发布的。 人们可能早在多年前就持有 $AXT 的做多仓位，但当出现新的催化剂时，情况有着实质性的不同。 仅仅因为早期有模糊的股票代码提及，并不意味着他们正确预判了催化剂，不幸的是，人们试图为后来发生的事情邀功。
英文原文
Not really, their post was around “smart homes and personal assistants” without one mention of openclaw. Openclaw variants were released after their post. People can be long AXT years ago but it’s materially different when there’s a new catalyst. Just because there’s a vague ticker mention earlier on doesn’t mean they got the catalyst correct and it’s unfortunate people try to claim credit for what happens later.
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博主调侃被雅虎财经引用，感叹媒体广泛引用X帖子的时代。
我今天发现雅虎财经(Yahoo Finance)也开始引用我的观点了？ 更有趣的是，引用的内容只是我在嘲笑伯里(Burry)看空 $PLTR 的逻辑。 我们生活在狂野的时代，从路透社(Reuters)到彭博社(Bloomberg)的记者都在引用你在 X 上的帖子。 https://t.co/bHGThzb6kr
英文原文
I found out today Yahoo Finance is quoting me too now? It’s even funnier that the quote is just me laughing at Burry’s $PLTR short thesis. Wild times we live in where journalists from Reuters to Bloomberg cite your posts on X. https://t.co/bHGThzb6kr
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博主回应粉丝夸奖，表示被新闻引用感到开心。
@beauty_oe 你太夸张了哈哈！不过看到自己的工作内容被新闻报道引用，确实挺开心的。
英文原文
@beauty_oe 褒めすぎだよ笑！でもニュースで自分の仕事が引用されてるのは嬉しいな。
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博主分享通过时间滞后套利发现隐含波动率异常并深入研究的经历。
@yomattyboi 我当时正在对部分亚洲股票进行时间滞后套利(time lag arbitrage)，偶然发现了这个。隐含波动率(IV)乍一看与实际波动率(volatility)相比显得不对劲，于是我便深入查看了一下。
英文原文
@yomattyboi I was doing time lag arbitrage with some Asian equities so stumbled across this by random. IV just didn’t look right at first glance compared to volatility so took a deeper look
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博主回复感谢粉丝的赞美。
@TheValueist 谢谢你的夸奖 :)。
英文原文
@TheValueist Why thank you :)
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指出$EWY期权定价错误，利用算法偏差获取维加扩张收益。
做市商可能很讨厌我。 $EWY 的隐含波动率(IV)在5天内从32%升至42%（基于2年期LEAPS期权）。 仅凭IV/维加(Vega)扩张就能获得约30%以上的免费利润。 衍生品中偶尔会出现套利机会。 算法并不总是能正确定价。 https://t.co/YI3g6Vv1i5
英文原文
Market makers probably hate me. $EWY IV went from 32% -> 42% in 5 days on 2 year leaps. Would be a free ~30%+ profit off IV/vega expansion alone. There’s rare cases of arbitrage opportunities off derivatives. Algorithms don’t always price things in correctly. https://t.co/YI3g6Vv1i5
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博主因联想建仓SIMO并认同对方观点
@RJCcapital 我建仓了 $SIMO，因为它让我想起了相扑选手。所以我也持有同样的感受。
英文原文
@RJCcapital I took positions in $SIMO since it reminds me of Sumo Wrestlers. So same feelings here too
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转发链接，无具体信息。
@zephyr_z9 https://t.co/BJWL3ULEIw
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 https://t.co/BJWL3ULEIw
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博主承认错误，并指出某标的波动性类似AXTI。
@AI_PowerFlow 哈哈，我的错。不过准备好享受一段刺激的旅程吧，它的波动性可能和 $AXTI 差不多 https://t.co/2xEtVVES1N
英文原文
@AI_PowerFlow lol my bad. In for a fun ride though, it’s probably just as volatile as $AXTI https://t.co/2xEtVVES1N
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分享持仓要点如$SIMO，不指望跟随但求启发。
股票每天都在创历史新高(ATH)。我认为现在不算早，但也不认为是顶部。话虽如此，只是想分享一些我持仓的要点(TLDR)，比如 $SIMO，以防其他人觉得有趣或能学到什么。我不指望大家跟随操作，但如果有什么亮点，那太好了！
英文原文
Stocks make ATHs every day. I don't think it's early but I don't think it's the top either. That being said, just wanted to share some TLDRs of positions I've taken like $SIMO in case others find it interesting or learn something. I don't expect people to follow along, but if something stands out, that's great!
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SIMO Q1异常低但全年看涨，NVDA采用其DPU提供底部支撑。
@canbilgeyilmaz $SIMO 在财报电话会议上表示，第一季度是2026年的最低点，这属于异常现象，但看来全年剩余时间将实现超预期并回升。 此外，随着 $NVDA 显然将采用其 Bluefield DPU（数据处理器单元），其总可寻址市场(TAM)的扩张也为其提供了良好的底部支撑。
英文原文
@canbilgeyilmaz $SIMO stated on earnings call that Q1 is lowest of 2026, which is an anomaly, but it looks like beat and rise for rest of the year. They also have a nice floor from TAM expansion with $NVDA apparently going to their bluefield DPUs?