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NVDA注资Lumentum，上游AXTI/IQE或成瓶颈。
在$NVDA达成$20亿交易后，所有人都在$540亿市值下抢购$LITE。等他们发现谁是Lumentum的上游瓶颈及供应商时再买吧。像$AXTI和可能的$IQE这样的公司可能还有很长的路要走。
英文原文
Everyone is rushing to buy $LITE at a $54B MC after the $NVDA $2B deal. Wait until they find out who the upstream bottlenecks and suppliers to Lumentum are. Companies like $AXTI and possibly $IQE likely have a long way to go. https://t.co/Hep3S6174M
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LASR有望成为大规模金穹系统定向能武器的核心。
@DA_Capital_ 基本上是这样。如果该技术在以色列得到验证，$LASR 很可能成为“金穹”（Golden Dome）系统中定向能武器的重要组成部分，而“金穹”的规模要广泛得多。
英文原文
@DA_Capital_ Basically. If it works in Israel, $LASR is likely going to be a huge part of energy directed weapons in the Golden Dome, which is much wider in scale
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博主分享发现 $LASR 很酷
@Gubloinvestor 谢谢，我只是分享沿途的发现！我刚发现 $LASR 真的很酷
英文原文
@Gubloinvestor Thanks, I’m just sharing my discoveries along the way! I just found $LASR to be really cool
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Nlight 作为 Iron Beam 供应商，2025 年发货量预计加速。
Nlight 是一家分包商： “我们是 Iron Beam 的供应商，不仅深度参与当前产品，还参与其未来开发。” “我们于 2024 年下半年开始向该项目 [Iron Beam] 发货，并预计在整个 2025 年加速发货。”
英文原文
Nlight is a subcontractor: “We are a supplier into Iron Beam, and we are deeply engaged with not only the current products but the future development there.” "We began shipping components toward this program [Iron Beam] in the second half of 2024, and we expect to accelerate those shipments throughout 2025."
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LASR作为铁束激光引擎供应商，因实战成功获看好，具纯正EDW概念。
$LASR 是唯一一家在美国公开交易的、纯正的能量定向武器（Energy Directed Weapons）概念股。 $LASR 是 Rafael 公司“铁束”（Iron Beam）系统的激光引擎供应商。 市场可能忽略了其与 NLight 之间的两层关联关系。 “铁束”系统今天首次实战部署，并取得了巨大成功。 今天还发布了一篇题为《美国持续探索如何停止用400万美元的导弹去打击3万美元的无人机》的文章： “多年来，激光武器一直是国防工业的新奇工具，总是‘还有五年才成熟’且‘超支十亿美元’。自2025年底以来，这个梦想正式投入运营，像烤面包卷一样在半空中烧毁威胁目标。 其吸引力纯粹是爱因斯坦式的艺术。无需发射需要博士维护的复杂拦截器，‘铁束’只需将100千瓦的高能激光聚焦于目标，直到其结构完整性不复存在。 没有爆炸，没有可追踪的尾气轨迹，神奇的是也没有重新装填时间。只要发电机有那甜美、甜美的柴油，你就拥有无限弹药。” $LASR 是以仅35亿美元市值提供的未来战争形态的纯正敞口。
英文原文
$LASR is the only US publicly traded, pure-play Energy Directed Weapons stock. $LASR is the laser engine for Rafael's Iron Beam. And markets may have missed the the two-hop relation to NLight. The Iron Beam was live for the first time today and wildly successful. An article: "America’s ongoing quest to stop firing $4 million missiles at $30,000 drones" was also put out today: "For years, laser weapons were the novelty tool of the defense industry, always five years away and ten billion dollars over budget. Since late 2025, the dream is officially operational, baking threats in mid-air like dinner rolls. The appeal is pure, unadulterated Einsteinian art. Instead of launching a sophisticated interceptor that requires a PhD to maintain, the Iron Beam focuses a 100kW high-energy laser onto a target until its structural integrity ceases to exist. There is no explosion, no exhaust trail to track, and, magically, no reload time. As long as the generator has that sweet, sweet diesel, you have an infinite magazine." $LASR is the pure play exposure for the future of warfare at a tiny $3.5B MC.
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分析三星/SK海力士遇DRAM涨价反跌现象，看好基本面回归及SK海力士估值潜力。
不确定是不是只有我这么觉得？ 但我一直在追踪三星/SK海力士与DRAM/NAND涨价报道之间的相关性。 每当有关于DRAM和NAND大幅涨价的报道时，它们两者以及 $EWY 似乎都会下跌。 然后之后又会展开一波反弹？ 例如，上个月 Trendforce 报道了DRAM涨70%和NAND涨100%+，三星/SK海力士在消息发布后都下跌了。 1个月后它们上涨了27.8%。 这次在 sedaily 和 digitimes 报道DRAM涨价后，两者再次下跌。但也许伊朗战争是一个更多的混淆因素。 在利好消息下下跌似乎非常反直觉。但最终基本面会占据主导？ 特别是如果明年，SK海力士2026-2027年的营业利润最终超过其市值？ 例如，麦格理在2月24-25日给出的预测：~1905亿美元 + ~3128亿美元营业利润预测（5030亿美元营业利润 vs. SK海力士~5140亿美元市值）。
英文原文
Not sure if it's just me? But I've been tracking Samsung/SK Hynix correlation to DRAM/NAND price hikes reports. Every time there's news about reported massive hikes on DRAM on NAND, they both + $EWY seem to drop. Then afterwards, it pulls off a rally? For example, last month Trendforce reported 70% DRAM and 100%+ NAND hikes and Samsung/Sk Hynix both dropped following the news. 1 month later it increased 27.8%. This time both have dropped again after DRAM price hikes from sedaily and digitimes. But maybe the war in Iran is more of a confounding factor. Seems very counterintuitive going down on positive news. But eventually fundamentals take over? Especially if by next year, SK Hynix's operating income for 2026-2027 ends up surpassing its marketcap? eg. ~$190.5 billion USD+ ~$312.8 billion USD operating income projections ($503B operating income vs. Sk Hynix~$514B MC) from Macquarie on the 24th-25th in Feb.
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博主晒出AXTI持仓455%收益，并期待IQE表现。
@ryansfinance 谢谢！你肯定错过了 $AXTI，我的持仓收益已达 455%。 是的，希望 $IQE 接下来也能有积极表现！https://t.co/LAST4fVcmh
英文原文
@ryansfinance Thanks! You missed out on $AXTI for sure, my positions are up like 455%. Yep hope to see something positive with $IQE next! https://t.co/LAST4fVcmh
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博主表示读者花时间阅读其内容即带来满足感。
@Philippe45164 只要大家花时间阅读我的想法，我就已经感到足够满足了！
英文原文
@Philippe45164 I get enough fulfillment from people just spending the time to read about my thoughts!
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博主回顾去年研究，庆幸精准预判英伟达投资及光模块股表现。
@invspoter 如果我能帮上忙，我很高兴！ 不过很高兴我去年在研究论文中精准预判了这一点。$NVDA 最终投资了 $LITE 和 $COHR。然后 $AAOI 今年也大幅上涨。https://t.co/gVDuPdkRrf
英文原文
@invspoter I'm happy if I was able to help! Glad I got this part spot on from my thesis last year though. $NVDA ended up investing in both of $LITE and $COHR. Then $AAOI ended up popping off this year. https://t.co/gVDuPdkRrf
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光子学成AI新瓶颈，NVDA投资上游，AAOI等迎重估。
我去年确实抛出了一个光子学(CPO)的金矿。匿名者们，你们听了吗？ 从 $AXTI 到 $AAOI，所有相关标的在过去两个月都上涨了2-3倍。 $LITE 最终涨幅超过100%。 甚至 $COHR 和 $IQE 也接近翻倍。 $AAOI 正处于超级反弹中，鉴于其45亿美元的营收预期，很可能继续走高。 现在 $NVDA 正在投资这些相同的光子学公司，从 $LITE（$IQE 的供应商以及 $AXTI 对 $LITE 的供应关系）到 $COHR。 光子学是下一个存储领域，像 $AAOI 这样的公司看起来像是下一个 $SNDK。 最重要的是，对于许多上游供应商来说，行情才刚刚开始。
英文原文
I literally dropped a photonics goldmine last year. Did you listen anon? Everything either went up 2-3X in the past two months from $AXTI to $AAOI. $LITE ended up increasing 100%+. Even $COHR and $IQE is close to doubling. AAOI is on a mega-rally right now and is likely to keep going higher given their $4.5B projections. And now $NVDA investing these same photonics companies today from $LITE ( $IQE supplier and $AXTI suppliers to $LITE) to $COHR. Photonics is the next memory, with companies like $AAOI looking like the next $SNDK. Best of all, it's only just getting started for a lot of the upstream suppliers.
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台湾光子学股票集体大涨，疑似机构提前获知消息。
@galaxymaker1989 @ryansfinance 是的，我对 $IQE 也有同样的想法。但奇怪的是，台湾的光子学(Photonics)股票全都大涨了10%以上，比如 Landmark？我猜测是一些机构可能提前泄露了消息。
英文原文
@galaxymaker1989 @ryansfinance Yeah I was thinking the same for $IQE. But it was really weird photonics stocks in Taiwan all rallied 10%+ like Landmark? My guess is some institutions maybe got the news leaked early.
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NVDA投资LITE带动其供应商IQE股价大涨28%
@ryansfinance 所以 $NVDA 向 $LITE 投资 20 亿美元，$IQE 可能是最大的受益者，因为作为其外延晶圆(epiwafer)代工厂，他们是 $LITE 的主要供应商。我一直在想为什么 IQE 今天涨了 28%……这大概就是原因。
英文原文
@ryansfinance So $NVDA investing $2B into $LITE is probably the biggest beneficiary for $IQE since they're a massive $LITE supplier as their epiwafer foundry. I was wondering why IQE was up 28% today... This was probably the reason
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博主炫耀选股大幅跑赢大盘，部分持仓翻倍后回调。
@Investmnt_Eagle 哈哈，是的，我选的所有股票比如 $AAOI 和 $IQE 最近每天涨幅都在 20-40% 左右。$AXTI 和 $LITE 在本月翻倍后正在小憩调整。说实话，市场其他部分并没有玩得这么开心。
英文原文
@Investmnt_Eagle LOL yeah all my picks like $AAOI and $IQE are up like 20-40% a day recently. $AXTI, $LITE have been taking a tiny rest after doubling this month. Rest of the market not having as much of a fun time tbh.
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光子学供应链相关个股近期走势强劲，全线上涨。
@anhecdote 随时欢迎！是的，我之前提到的整个光子学(Photonics)供应链，包括 $AXTI、$LITE、$COHR、$IQE 和 $AAOI，走势都是一条直线向上的绿色阳线。
英文原文
@anhecdote Anytime! Yeah the entire photonics supply chain that I've mentioned from $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, $IQE, and $AAOI has been a straight green line up.
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英伟达投资相干光，利好光子学供应链及相干光。
$NVDA 刚刚向 $COHR 投资 20 亿美元，用于先进激光器和光网络产品。这对 $AXTI（衬底供应商）、$AAOI 等其他光网络公司以及整个光子学供应链构成了极其强劲的利好。而最大的直接受益者无疑是 $COHR。
英文原文
$NVDA has just invested $2 billion into $COHR for advanced laser and optical networking products. This is an extremely bullish tailwind for $AXTI (substrate provider), other optical networking companies like $AAOI, and the entire photonics supply chain. And most of all the direct beneficiary is $COHR.
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英伟达投资Lumentum，利好光子学供应链及上游供应商。
$NVDA 刚刚投资 20 亿美元支持 Lumentum 的研发及美国新建晶圆厂。这对 $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI、$IQE 等光子学股票是巨大的顺风。$IQE 今日上涨 28% 更合理了，因为它是 $LITE 的已知供应商。而 $AXTI 是 $IQE 的已知供应商。该合作聚焦硅光子学、光互连及封装集成，惠及整个光子学供应链。
英文原文
$NVDA has just invested $2 billion to support Lumentum's R&D and a new U.S. fabrication facility. This is a massive tailwind for photonics stocks from: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, $IQE and others. $IQE's 28% rise today makes more sense as they're a known $LITE supplier. And $AXTI is a known $IQE supplier. The collaboration targets silicon photonics, optical interconnects, and package integration, which flows through the entire photonics supply chain.
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指出LASR是公开市场唯一的定向能武器纯概念股。
@geokoutalidis 是的，提醒得很及时！市场上还有其他大型参与者，比如 $DRS、$RTX 和 $ESLT。但据我所知，除了 $LASR 之外，公开市场上没有其他股票能纯粹地暴露于定向能武器（Directed Energy Weapons）领域。
英文原文
@geokoutalidis Yep great shout! There's other large players out there, like $DRS or $RTX and $ESLT. But nothing publicly traded really has pure play exposure to energy directed weapons aside from $LASR AFAIK.
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作者因激光武器实战演示而反思未买入LASR的遗憾。
@tang2026 现代战争真是疯狂，我们终于有了激光拦截一切... 我以为这要远得多，所以我从未对 $LASR 下手。但太疯狂了，我们终于第一次亲眼目睹了它。
英文原文
@tang2026 Modern warfare is just so wild that we finally have lasers just shooting down everything... I thought it would be way further out, which is why I never pulled the trigger on $LASR. But wild we finally get to see it live for the first time.
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$LASR获实战验证，预计将获大量国防合同。
我们需要观望，目前这更像是一笔催化剂交易。 $LASR 刚刚获得了其历史上最大的验证，其激光武器首次实战成功击落了大量目标。 我猜测，随着“铁束”（Iron Beam）系统的扩展（因为验证有效）以及向高超音速导弹等其他应用领域的拓展，大量合同可能会流向 $LASR。
英文原文
We'll need to see, it's more of a catalyst trade right now. $LASR just got the biggest validation in their lifetime for the first usage of their Laser Weapons shooting down a bunch of stuff. My guess is a ton of contracts will likely flow into $LASR now both from expanding Iron Beam (because it worked) and toward other applications like hypersonic missiles.
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博主因看好激光武器概念，决定在股价大涨后追涨买入$LASR。
@theodore_invest 自今年1月我发帖以来，它已经上涨了50%+……但我本应该当时就建仓，因为我觉得激光武器(laser weapons)超级酷。 最终我现在扣动了扳机，对于 $LASR 来说，迟做总比不做好。
英文原文
@theodore_invest It was up 50%+ or so since i posted last Jan... But I should have taken positions then because I thought laser weapons were super cool. Ended up pulling the trigger now, better late than never for $LASR.
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博主表示在观察后最终建仓了持续上涨的$LASR。
@theodore_invest 每次我发帖 $LASR 就继续上涨，哈哈…… 在看完它击溃一堆东西后，最终建立了头寸。 https://t.co/71MZrSHeFs
英文原文
@theodore_invest $LASR keeps going higher every time I post LOL... Ended up finally taking positions after seeing it shoot down a bunch of stuff. https://t.co/71MZrSHeFs
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首次目睹LASR实战应用，确认其具备实战验证能力。
@Vcondry84 第一次亲眼看到 $LASR 实战应用，简直太疯狂了。我关注它有一段时间了，但直到现在才看到真正的实战验证。https://t.co/KMnDV9dlD5
英文原文
@Vcondry84 It's absolutely wild to see $LASR in action for the first time. I was aware of it for awhile but didn't really see any combat validation until now. https://t.co/KMnDV9dlD5
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因铁束实战验证，作者在30亿市值时建仓纯定向能武器股LASR。
$LASR 来自“铁束”系统的定向能武器。这很可能是美以 vs 伊朗冲突中最大的受益者和验证者。真主党向以色列发射火箭弹。-> $LASR (Nlight) 的激光引擎在 Rafael 的“铁束”系统中将其击落。亲眼目睹其实战效果简直令人疯狂。鉴于刚刚得到的验证，预计大量国防基金近期将涌入定向能武器领域。特别是通过 HELSI 计划拦截高超音速导弹。虽然 $DRS 或 $RTX 等大型玩家也有相关敞口，但只有 $LASR 是市值 31 亿美元的纯定向能武器股。它恰好也是“铁束”系统的已知关键供应商。我最终在 $LASR 市值 30 亿美元时建立了头寸。
英文原文
$LASR Energy Directed Weapons from the Iron Beam. Is probably the single largest beneficiary and validation from the US / Israel vs. Iran conflict. Hezbollah Fired Rockets into Israel. -> $LASR (Nlight) laser engine inside of Rafael's Iron Beam shot them down. It's absolutely wild to see it in action. Lot of defense funds will now probably be pouring into Energy Directed Weapons in the near future given validation just now. Especially to zap down hypersonic missiles with the HELSI initiative. There's a few large player exposure like $DRS or $RTX but there's only one $3.1B MC pure-play energy directed weapons stock. Which also happens to be a known critical supplier for the Iron Beam. Ended up taking positions in $LASR at $3B MC.
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澄清超大规模云厂商订单无取消风险，强调美国本土供应链优势及光子学瓶颈。
超大规模云服务商提前一年下满所有产能的订单，并不意味着有取消风险？我不确定你从哪得出这个结论。 什么20%的利润率上限？他们提到的是40%。 此外，它们拥有“美国制造”的供应链，这很罕见，$LITE 和 $COHR 的组装都在亚洲进行。 但如果人们因多年前 $AMZN 取消订单而患有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，那也能理解。但这次应该不同，因为光子学(Photonics)是已知的瓶颈，且需求超过供应。
英文原文
Three to four hyperscaler orders for all the capacity they can make a year out doesn’t mean risk of cancellation? Not sure where you’re getting that from. What 20% margin ceiling? They cited 40%. Also they’re Made in America supply chains which is rare, $LITE and $COHR do assembly in Asia. But makes sense of people have ptsd from $AMZN order cancellation many years ago. But this time should be different since photonics is a known bottleneck and demand outstrips supply
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建议在AEHR和AAOI之间采取多元化配置策略。
@B38B37 如果你在 $AEHR 和 $AAOI 之间做选择，我是多元化(Diversification)的拥趸。多多益善。
英文原文
@B38B37 I’m a fan of diversification if you’re choosing between $AEHR and $AAOI. The more the merrier.
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评论X用户往往过早介入，若营收预测达成则上行空间巨大。
@Kaizen_Investor 如果他们实现基于40%毛利率的约40亿美元营收预测，上行空间可能非常大。X上的人们总是对事物介入得太早。
英文原文
@Kaizen_Investor Likely tons of upside if they hit the their ~$4B revenue projection off 40% margins. People on X are just really early to things
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光子学板块股票正经历剧烈重新定价。
@LIWEILIU476419 所有光子学(Photonics)板块股票正在经历剧烈的重新定价。 https://t.co/BBMsC9yQI8
英文原文
@LIWEILIU476419 Wild repricing event for all photonics sector stocks. https://t.co/BBMsC9yQI8
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分享AXTI等个股早期布局逻辑及CPO前瞻。
$AXTI 和 $AAOI 可能还非常早期。$LITE 的定价已略有反映。$COHR 还有很长的路要走。 $IQE 处于非常早期的阶段，但由于重组带来的固有风险，我不建议其他人参与。我只是分享我建仓的逻辑，并沿途庆祝进展。 至于 2028 年的共封装光学(CPO)，明年有一套不同的标的供提前布局。
英文原文
Probably very early to $AXTI and $AAOI. $LITE slightly more priced in. $COHR has some way to go. $IQE is very early but I wouldn’t recommend it to people since it’s inherently risky due to restructuring. I’m just sharing why I entered the trade and celebrating along the way. Then for cpo in 2028 there’s a different set of picks for next year to frontrun.
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光子学板块个股无视宏观风险持续大涨
看来 $IQE 也不关心伊朗战争？ 我核心光子学(Photonics)板块的选股 $AXTI、$LITE、$COHR 和 $AAOI 最近每天都呈垂直上涨态势，完全无视任何宏观因素。https://t.co/I4O1zxyY8W
英文原文
Apparently $IQE does not concern itself with the War in Iran either? My core photonics segment picks from $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, and $AAOI have been just vertical green line up every day recently, despite any macro. https://t.co/I4O1zxyY8W
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预测某股将垂直整合，视AAOI为一年期交易。
@Blazedsin 是也不是。我猜测它最终可能会像 $SMCI 或 $SNDK 那样走向垂直整合，大部分营收增长将持续到 2027 年底。然后共封装光学(CPO) 就会推出。$AAOI 对我来说是一笔为期一年的交易。
英文原文
@Blazedsin Yes and no. My guess is that it’s probably going to end up vertical like $SMCI or $SNDK with majority of revenue ramp coming in until late 2027. Then cpo comes out. $AAOI is a 1 year trade for me