· 供应链分析
- 即使所有人都生产 800G/1.6T 产品，供应依然不足。需求远超供应。 这并非三星/SK海力士/美光(Micron)的三巨头格局，但 $AAOI 可能是唯一来自美国本土供应链的企业，因为 $COHR 在马来西亚组装，而 $LITE 则在泰国($FN)及亚洲其他地区生产。 - 在他们的电话会议中，他们详细说明了超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers)希望购买其能生产的所有产品。这更多是关于产能爬坡(Production Ramp)，并进一步印证了第一点：全行业需求大于供应。 我认为我们不会看到产品泛滥，因为需求将在可预见的未来消化掉各家厂商的所有产能。此外，中国厂商面临类似存储领域 cmxt/YMTC 的出口管制风险的可能性也不为零。
- even if everyone produces 800g/1.6T there’s not enough. Demand far outstrips supply. It’s not quite the trio Samsung/sk Hynix/micron but $AAOI is probably the only one from made in America supply chains since $COHR does assembly in Malaysia and $LITE -> $FN Thailand and other places in Asia. - in their call they detailed hyperscalers wanted to buy anything they can make. It’s moreso production ramp and just drives the first point home that demand > supply across the board. Don’t think we’ll see flooding bc demand will eat up anything the players can make for the foreseeable future. And nonzero chance there’s export controls like cmxt/YMTC from memory on Chinese players