个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2373 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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SSYS作为人形机器人骨架，其收入增长取决于行业规模化进程。
我不知道。没有（具体标的）。 $SSYS 基本上是人形机器人的框架/骨架，其收入增长取决于机器人规模化进程。 如果波士顿动力（Boston Dynamics）的 Atlas、Optimus 或其他产品实现规模化，那么收入将呈指数级增长。 目前尚无机器人玩家实现规模化，因此此前的收入一直较低。 但这只是我个人关于如何在机器人规模化进程中获取最大非对称收益的想法。
英文原文
I don't know. Don't have one. $SSYS basically the frame/skeleton of humanoid robots and revenue ramp depends on robotics scale up. If Atlas from Boston Dynamics or Optimus or others achieves scale, then revenue increases exponentially. No robotics player achieved anything at scale yet, hence why revenue's been lower so far. But this is just my personal thought regarding getting the most asymmetry on the robotics ramp.
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基于OpenAI机器人业务推动，看好SSYS作为人形机器人骨架供应商的长线潜力。
@pepemoonboy 谢谢！我只是在 OpenAI 机器人业务推动后，根据公开信息关注 $SSYS。自从我发帖以来，它已经上涨了 6%。但这是一个很好的长线标的，因为他们是所有人形机器人的骨架/框架。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Thanks! I'm just following public information after the OpenAI robotics push for $SSYS. It was already up 6% since I posted. But this one is a great long as they're the skeleton/frames of all the humanoid robots.
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SSYS消息公布后已大涨，推测政客提前知情。
@SlumberMD $SSYS 自该消息公布以来已经上涨了相当可观的幅度。我只是在跟随公开信息，但我确信政客们提前就知道了。https://t.co/fRE8n2gyTU
英文原文
@SlumberMD $SSYS was already up quite a decent amount since this news got published. I'm just following public information, but I'm sure politicians know ahead of time. https://t.co/fRE8n2gyTU
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指出$ETOR客户反馈不佳，但提供简化指标供参考。
@LongInnovation $ETOR 的客户反馈并不理想。话虽如此，我只是以易于理解的 TLDR（太长不看）格式发布一些信息指标。人们可以随意使用这些信息。
英文原文
@LongInnovation $ETOR customer feedback isn’t great. That being said I’m just posting info metrics in a TLDR format that makes things easy to understand. People can do whatever they want with the information
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反驳看空观点，指出ETOR回本快且SPY成分股业绩强劲。
@ShortsHoward 呃，$ETOR 基本上能在 3.9 年内收回其企业价值(EV)。大多数 $SPY 成分股公司的平均交易市盈率为 22 倍。鉴于其资产管理规模(AUM)同比增长了 76%，它们显然并未陷入困境。
英文原文
@ShortsHoward Uh $ETOR basically makes their EV back in 3.9 years. Most $SPY companies are trading 22x avg. They’re not exactly dying given their AUM grew 76% y/y
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指出$ETOR估值极低且增长，对比沃尔玛高估值认为其被低估。
$ETOR 的估值约为 3.9 倍企业价值/自由现金流(EV/FCF)，特此指出。其市值为 26 亿美元，其中 12 亿美元为现金。此外，基于 1% 的利率下调模型，预计 2026 年自由现金流(FCF) 为 3.5-3.8 亿美元。而且公司还在增长。当沃尔玛(WMT) 的市盈率(P/E) 高达 42.2 倍时，这种估值显得有点荒谬。https://t.co/1k57wE5juP
英文原文
$ETOR is trading at ~3.9x EV/FCF just putting that out there. $2.6B MC, $1.2B of it is in cash. Then they’re doing est. $350-$380m FCF for 2026, modeling 1% interest rate cuts. And growing too. Valuation seems a bit absurd when you have Walmart out there at 42.2 p/e. https://t.co/1k57wE5juP
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作者买入$NODE并认为$ETOR估值极低，因高现金和强劲FCF使其极具吸引力。
完全同意该论点以及买入 $NODE 的决定。在这些价位上，$ETOR 的估值简直是个笑话。 在做了一些简单的粗略计算后，我自己也买了几十万美元的仓位。 当其中约 12 亿美元是现金时，26 亿美元的估值说不通。 此外，他们预计 2026 年将带来 3.5 亿至 3.7 亿美元的自由现金流（FCF）（假设利率下调 1%）。 因此，以 3.9 倍的企业价值/自由现金流（EV/FCF）买入这家公司，看起来就像白送房地产一样。
英文原文
Fully agree with the thesis and $NODE purchase. $ETOR valuation looks like a joke at these levels. I ended up buying few hundred thousand worth of myself after doing some slight napkin math calculations. $2.6B valuation doesn’t make sense when ~$1.2B of it is cash. Then they’re bringing in est. $350-$370m FCF in 2026, from some calc (fact 1% interest rate cut) So buying a company at EV/FCF is 3.9x which looks like free real estate.
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Lightpath凭锗替代技术获军工垄断，成博主2026年首选多头。
$LPTH 现已上涨 25%。 Lightpath 确实令人难以置信，我建议人们深入研究这家公司。 市场关注 $KRKNF 作为 Andruil 的单一来源敞口，但 Lightpath 以 1/3 的市场资本化向包括 Andruil 到 Lockheed 在内的绝大多数主要国防承包商供货。 总可寻址市场(TAM)巨大。 -> 拥有对中国刚刚切断的关键原材料替代品的垄断权 -> 中国生产全球约 60-70% 的锗(Germanium) -> 拥有名为 Black Diamond（硫系玻璃 Chalcogenide glass）的专有材料，并持有美国海军研究实验室的独家授权。 -> Black Diamond = 性能媲美锗，但零使用锗。 -> Raytheon、Lockheed 和 L3Harris 在其导弹/无人机项目中从中国供应链转向 LightPath 的 Black Diamond。 -> 国防之外的许多其他垂直领域，如太空卫星、Robotaxis（自动驾驶出租车）、机器人等，也会使用 Black Diamond 替代中国供应链。 -> 但他们因需求已满负荷运转，其战争垂直领域的 Stinger 导弹和 Ghost 无人机订单积压。 这是我的独立思考过程：$LPTH 在 7 亿美元市值时属于早期发现，现在是我 2026 年最看好的多头持仓。 我是 Lightpath 走向 100 亿美元+市值之路上的快乐股东。
英文原文
$LPTH is now up 25%. Lightpath genuinely incredible and I suggest people read into this company. Markets look at $KRKNF for single source Andruil exposure but Lightpath supplies to most major defense contractors from Andruil to Lockheed at 1/3rd the MC. TAM is huge. -> Own the monopoly on the alternative to a critical raw material that China just choked off -> China produces ~60-70% of the world’s Germanium -> own the proprietary material called Black Diamond (Chalcogenide glass) with the exclusive license with the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. -> Black Diamond = performs like Germanium but uses zero Germanium. -> Raytheon, Lockheed, and L3Harris switches from Chinese supply chains to LightPath’s Black Diamond for their missile/drone programs. -> Many other verticals outside of defense from Space Satellites, Robotaxis, Robotics, and others would use Black Diamond over Chinese supply chains -> But they’re at full capacity from demand, backlogged for Stinger Missiles and Ghost drones for their War vertical This is my own thought process that it’s $LPTH is early discovery at a $700m MC and is now my favorite long of 2026. I’m a happy shareholder on Lightpath’s way to $10B+ MC.
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对比KRKNF高估值与LPTH低估值及解决中国瓶颈的优势。
@Kowalski_Mark_ @pennycheck 感谢提供关于 Andruil 是 $LPTH 客户的来源。 有趣的是，人们以超过 20 亿美元的估值买入 $KRKNF，仅仅是为了获得对 Andruil 的单一客户敞口。 但你却忽略了一家市值仅 7 亿美元的纯题材承包商，它涉及美国大多数国防承包商，并解决了中国瓶颈问题。
英文原文
@Kowalski_Mark_ @pennycheck Appreciate the source on Andruil being a customer of $LPTH. It’s interesting ppl buy $KRKNF for single customer exposure in Andruil at $2b+. But you have a pure play contractor that involves majority of US defense contractors and addresses the China bottleneck at $700m
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确认$DDOG投资逻辑成立。
@soulbiri1 Pochita = 狗。$DDOG 的逻辑成立。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Pochita = dog. Logic checks out for $DDOG
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LPTH 国防订单积压优先，若材料替代成功市值有望超 100 亿。
$LPTH 可以为其他领域（如 FSD 摄像头、太空卫星、机器人机器视觉等）提供所有需要锗(Germanium)的组件。 他们目前在国防领域积压了大量订单，从毒刺导弹到幽灵无人机，这些订单具有优先权。 如果美国公司开始使用黑金刚石(Black Diamond)替代锗玻璃，其市值轻松可能超过 100 亿美元。
英文原文
$LPTH can supply everything that requires germanium in other sectors like cameras for FSD, space satellites, machine vision for robotics, and everything. They’re just backlogged in the defense sector for stinger missiles to ghost drones, which takes priority. Could easily be $10B+ if US companies start using black diamond instead of germanium glass
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看好LPTH因美供应链垄断优势，担忧META受地缘政治影响。
太棒了！$LPTH 是我 2026 年目前为止最喜欢的多头持仓！我从未想过能找到能击败 $NBIS 的东西。 它比 $AXTI 更安全，因为这次是美国供应链，同时也在这个瓶颈修复方案上拥有垄断地位。 顺便说一句，我的 $META 仓位正在被重创 lol。美国即将入侵伊朗 + 战争通常会导致除国防、石油和安全股以外的任何股票抛售。
英文原文
Nice! $LPTH is my favorite long of 2026 so far! I never thought I’d find something that would beat $NBIS. It’s also safer than $AXTI since it’s US supply chain this time but also has a monopoly over this bottleneck fix. On a side note, my $META positions are getting wrecked lol. Imminent US invasion of Iran + war usually causes a selloffs of anything non defense, oil, and safety stocks
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传闻美将袭伊朗，建议做多战争股及石油股，看好LPTH。
@DesingerGem 突发：“据路透社报道，美国可能在24小时内袭击伊朗” “美国袭击迫在眉睫” 在实际事件发生前，极度做多（omega long）战争概念股和石油股。 $LPTH 将是这一事件的巨大受益者。 https://t.co/byzGakiNrN
英文原文
@DesingerGem BREAKING: "US may attack Iran within the next 24 hours, per Reuters" "US ATTACK IS IMMINENT" Go omega long on war stocks and oil before the actual event. $LPTH is a huge beneficiary of this. https://t.co/byzGakiNrN
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LPTH垄断美军专用玻璃供应，具极高战略价值。
@Jorge89767947 $LPTH 是唯一的单一来源供应商，服务于大多数主要美国国防承包商，从洛克希德·马丁的“毒刺”导弹到 Andruil 的“幽灵”无人机。它垄断了五角大楼要求的、用于美军建设并减少对中国依赖的美国制造和认证的玻璃。市值也许能到 $100 亿+？
英文原文
@Jorge89767947 $LPTH a sole source contractor majority of major US defense contractors from Lockheed's Stinger Missiles to Andruil's Ghost drones. It's the monopoly over US made and approved glass that the Pentagon requires for US army buildout + reduce dependence on China. Maybe $10B+?
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LPTH获军工巨头青睐且具垄断优势，有望成百亿公司
感谢。我发现 $LPTH 基本上就是美国的 $AXTI，所有顶级军工承包商，包括 Andruil、Lockheed、L3Harris、$ONDS 等都在转向他们。由于拥有美国海军研究实验室的授权，他们在此领域拥有垄断地位。完全可以预见这将成为一家市值超 100 亿美元的公司。
英文原文
Appreciate it. I found that $LPTH was the US $AXTI basically and all the top military contractors from Andruil, Lockheed, L3Harris, $ONDS, and everyone were switching to them. And they have the monopoly over it bc of US naval research lab licenses. Can easily see this being a $10B+ company down the road.
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确认Andruil使用LPTH，利好该股
@pennycheck 好吧，那更好，Andruil 确认是 $LPTH 的用户 lol
英文原文
@pennycheck Okay then, even better that Andruil is a confirmed user of $LPTH lol
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LPTH垄断锗替代材料黑钻石，受益于中国出口管制，具早期Alpha机会。
$LPTH 确实令人惊叹。他们垄断了一种关键原材料的替代方案，而中国刚刚对该材料实施了出口管制。 中国生产全球约 60-70% 的锗(Germanium)，并实施了出口管制。而 Lightpath 恰好拥有唯一的替代方案（类似于 $AXTI 的磷化铟(InP)技术）。 他们拥有名为黑钻石(Black Diamond)的专有材料（硫系玻璃(Chalcogenide glass)），并独家获得了美国海军研究实验室(U.S. Naval Research Laboratory)的授权。 黑钻石的性能堪比锗，但完全不含锗。 雷神(Raytheon)、洛克希德·马丁(Lockheed)和 L3Harris 可能会将其导弹/无人机项目从中国的供应链转向 LightPath 的黑钻石。在 6 亿美元市值下，这是极早期的 Alpha 机会。
英文原文
$LPTH is genuinely incredible. They own the monopoly on the alternative to a critical raw material that China just choked off. China produces ~60-70% of the world’s Germanium + just export controlled. And Lightpath happens to have the only workaround (similar to InP with $AXTI). They own the proprietary material called Black Diamond (Chalcogenide glass) with the exclusive license with the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. Black Diamond = performs like Germanium but uses zero Germanium. Raytheon, Lockheed, and L3Harris will likely switch from Chinese supply chains to LightPath’s Black Diamond for their missile/drone programs. This is incredibly early alpha at a $600m MC.
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建仓$LPTH，因其是中国锗玻璃在美唯一替代，获多家军工巨头采用。
我建仓了 $LPTH（市值6.21亿美元）。 Lightpath 非常出色。 每一种现代热武器（导弹、无人机）都需要锗玻璃，而中国拥有该市场70%的份额。 LPTH 是唯一拥有 Black Diamond 技术的美国替代方案： 用户包括： - $ONDS - L3Harris - Lockheed - Andruil（可能） - $UMAC - RTX/Raytheon 或 Northrop Grumman（用于最近1820万美元的合同）。 Ondas：Iron Drone Raider（反无人机拦截无人机）和 Optimus 使用 LPTH 的热成像相机核心。 L3Harris SPEIR 在阿利·伯克级驱逐舰上使用 Lightpath 的红外相机组件。 Lockheed Martin 毒刺导弹和 M-SHORAD 使用 Lightpath 的导弹寻标器光学元件。 Anduril 可能在 The Ghost（自主无人机）上使用 Lightpath 的非制冷长波红外（LWIR）相机。 Unusual Machines 在攻击无人机上使用 Lightpath 的模制热透镜。 RTX 或 Northrop（其中之一）在先进战术吊舱或下一代导弹寻标器中使用 Lightpath 的红外相机系统。 这实际上是现代武器和无人机所需的唯一西方替代方案。 Lightpath 现在拥有惊人的资产负债表： ~7500-8000万美元现金（负债-500万美元） -FY 2025 营收3720万美元。FY 2026 预估~6160万美元 - FY 2025 毛利率27.2%，FY 2026 年底预计35-40%。 - FY 2025 积压订单~4000万美元。FY 2026 积压订单9000万美元+。 他们已售罄。利润率在扩张。而且大多数顶级美国国防承包商现在都将 Lightpath 作为中国锗玻璃供应链的西方替代品。 绝对是一家不可思议的公司，我不常这么说。 因此，我个人做多 Lightpath，因为军工承包商未来将依赖他们生产先进武器。
英文原文
I've initiated positions in $LPTH ($621M). Lightpath is incredible. Every modern thermal weapon (Missiles, Drones) requires Germanium glass, which China owns (70%) LPTH is the only US alternative with: Black Diamond Users? - $ONDS - L3Harris - Lockheed - Andruil (likely) - $UMAC - RTX/Raytheon or Northrop Grumman for the most recent $18.2M contract. Ondas: Iron Drone Raider(counter-UAS interceptor drone) and Optimus uses LPTH for Thermal Camera Cores. L3Harris SPEIR uses Lightpath for Infrared Camera Assemblies on Arleigh Burke-class Destroyers. Lockheed Martin Stinger Missles and M-SHORAD uses Lightpath for Missile Seeker Optics. Anduril likely uses Lightpath for The Ghost (Autonomous Drone) for Uncooled LWIR (Long Wave Infrared) Cameras. Unusual Machines uses Lightpath for Attack Drones (Molded Thermal Lenses). RTX or Northrop (one of them) uses Lightpath for Advanced Tactical Pods or Next-Gen Missile Seekers suing Infrared Camera Systems. This literally is the only Western alternative required for modern weaponry and drones. Lightpath now has an amazing balance sheet: ~$75–80 million in cash (with -$5M debt) -FY 2025 $37.2 Million. FY 2026 est. ~$61.6 Million - FY 2025 Gross 27.2%, FY 2026 35-40% by year-end. - FY 2025 Backlog ~$40 Million. FY 2026 Backlog $90+ Million. They are sold out. Expanding margins. And majority of the top US defence contractors now use Lightpath as a Western alternative to China's supply chain of Germanium glass. Absolutely incredible company, I don't say this very often. So I personally went long on Lightpath as military contractors will rely on them in the future for advanced weapons.
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驳斥ONDS观点，揭露UAVS通过可转债套利及虚假宣传收割散户。
认为$ONDS的高行权价可转债性质截然不同，这种观点简直是妄想。 $UAVS将超过100%市值的控制权交给了套利投资者，他们可以在$1.23的价格（低于当前股价50%）增发价值1亿美元的股票，并直接赚取差价。 这只有在散户买入该套利头寸时才有效。正如我们所见，该公司为了诱导散户买入，无所不用其极，甚至发布诸如与$AMZN合作的虚假新闻稿。
英文原文
$ONDS convertible note at a higher strike is wildly different and this is a delusional take. $UAVS gave control to arbitrage investors of over 100% the marketcap where they can mint $100 million worth of shares at $1.23 (-50% under current prices) and just pocket the difference. This only works if retail buys into this arbitrage. And as we’ve seen the same company would do anything from putting out fake press releases like $AMZN partnerships to get retail to buy.
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警告散户远离$UAVS，揭露其融资结构旨在向套利者转移财富。
警告散户投资者： 在22日的投票结果出来之前，远离 $UAVS。 我在研究无人机股票推荐时，发现了SEC文件，其中显示不透明的董事会投票决定将财富从散户转移给套利者。 这是一家无人机公司，因为被美国陆军工程兵团(USACE)、北约(KFOR)和其他武装部队使用，且最近有大量新闻报道，从而获得了散户的关注。 我原本对这个市值7500万美元的公司作为多头标的感到非常兴奋，因为他们将农业应用场景转型为无人机国防承包商。 然而，2025年11月7日的文件是一次巨大的稀释核弹。 基本上，他们在去年的G轮融资中，将整个公司卖给了套利投资者，赋予这些人以1.23美元（比当前市价低75%）的价格购买1亿美元股份的权利。 早在2021年，同一批G轮投资者散布了关于与 $AMZN 合作的虚假信息，诱使散户买入 -> 然后向这些投资者抛售股份（Bonitas Research指出该新闻是假的）。现在整个公司由Alpha Capital Anstalt等相同的套利投资者控制。 这些公司也控制着股价（可以轻松将市值推高至3亿，然后在散户看到价格上涨并买入时进行稀释）。 凭借这一条款，他们现在有效地控制了100%以上的整个公司，他们可以发行新股 -> 获利50%以上 -> 重复。我在研究无人机股票时差点就掉进这个陷阱。 简而言之：买入这只股票实际上是在向套利投资者捐款。董事会投票支持这种结构令人警觉。 股票长期来看是正和博弈，如果论点方向正确，每个人都能受益。在这种情况下，由于当前的融资结构，每个散户投资者都会输。
英文原文
Warning to retail investors: Stay away from $UAVS until the result of the vote on the 22nd. I was researching drone stock recs, and found SEC filings where the shady board voted for a wealth transfer from retail to arbitrage. It's a drone company that's been getting retail attention because it's used by: US Army USACE, NATO (KFOR), and other armed forces with a lot of news published recently. I was super excited about this potential long for a $75M company, since they pivoted their agricultural use case to drone defense contractor. However, the November 7, 2025 Filing was a massive dilution nuke. Basically they sold their entire company to arbitrage investors last year in their Series G round, giving these guys the right to buy $100M shares at $1.23 or 75% under market price current is. Back in 2021, the same Series G investors put out false information about an $AMZN partnership to get retail to buy -> dump shares on them (Bonitas Research pointed out this news was fake). The entire company is now controlled by the same arbitrage investors like Alpha Capital Anstalt. These companies control the price too (can easily make this $300M then dilute when retail sees price go up and buys in) With this clause, they have effective control of 100%+ of the entire company now where they can issue new shares -> profit 50%+ -> repeat. I almost fell for it while looking into drone stocks. TLDR: Buying this stock is effectively donating money to the arbitrage investors. The fact the board voted for this structure is alarming. Stocks positive sum game long term where everyone benefits if the thesis is directionally right. In this case, with the current financing structure, every retail investor loses.
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批评$UAVS董事会授权套利者控盘以欺诈散户。
我措辞稍显强硬，但请等到22日再看$1亿授权结果。但$UAVS董事会投票通过此事，通过赋予套利投资者对整个公司的控制权并无限期出售其股票以免费获取当前价值25%（即1.23美元）来欺诈散户投资者，这简直太有毒了。
英文原文
I worded this a bit strongly, but wait until 22nd for $100m authorization outcome. But the fact the $UAVS board voted for this sht to scam retail investors by giving arbitrage investors control of the entire company and endlessly sell their sales for a free 25% of current value or $1.23 is just so toxic.
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警告远离某股，指其通过认股权证向套利者让渡控制权，严重损害散户利益。
天哪，快远离！我之前仅从科技/金融角度（这确实非常强劲）来看待它，而非稀释效应。这家公司简直是在诈骗散户投资者。他们基本上将公司的控制权（超过8800万美元的认股权证）交给了套利投资者，后者可以随时以低于市场价25%的价格买入。散户投资者将被套利，直到他们向这家公司注入8800万美元。
英文原文
HOLY CRAP STAY AWAY, I was only looking at it from tech/financials angle (Which is extremely strong) rather than dilution. This company is just scamming retail investors. They basically gave control of their entire company (over $88M USD+ in warrants) to arbitrage investors who can buy any time 25% below market size. Retail investors will just get arbitraged until they pile $88M into this company.
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博主认为$UAVS是隐藏宝石并计划建仓。
@KAnalyser1 哇，$UAVS 是一颗隐藏的宝石。我会建仓，谢谢。
英文原文
@KAnalyser1 Woah $UAVS is a hidden gem. I’ll take positions thanks
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博主强烈看好LPTH，建议超配做多。
@WaltzDisneyz $LPTH 的表现令人难以置信，我很少这么说。我会对此进行超重的多头配置。
英文原文
@WaltzDisneyz $LPTH is incredible, I don’t say this often. I would go super long on this.
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认为$VLN受做市商算法操控，短期价格无关紧要，市场终将修正。
我对 $VLN 的看法是，这很可能是做市商(MM)算法在 $2.5 进行的打击防御(strike defense)，因为期权链上只有 $2.5 和 $5 的合约。（你可以看到上周五该价格被锁定数小时）。 短期价格并不重要，因为市场最终会自我修正，尤其是在做市商完成对冲、伽马(Gamma)解除或如果数据来源在下一次财报中修正从而停止做空之后。
英文原文
My thoughts on $VLN is that it’s probably MM algo strike defense at $2.5 since option chain is only $2.5 and $5. (You can see it pinned to that price last Friday for hours). Short term price doesn’t matter because markets correct itself over time, esp after MMs finish hedging, gamma unwinds, or we stop seeing shorting if data source corrects next earnings.
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暂无苹果投资英特尔公开消息，但特朗普或知情。
@TheEEInvestor 目前没有任何关于 $APPL 投资 $INTC 的公开披露或新闻。但我认为特朗普作为现任总统可能比其他人知道得更多，而且他在直播采访中倾向于说出一些不该说的话。
英文原文
@TheEEInvestor There's no public disclosures or news at all regarding $APPL investments in $INTC yet. But I'd say Trump probably knows a bit more than others as the sitting President and is prone to say more things than he should in his live interviews.
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特朗普泄露苹果投资英特尔，致INTC盘后暴涨
如果你想知道为什么 $INTC 盘后暴涨： 特朗普在一次采访中意外泄露了 $APPL 已投资的消息。https://t.co/1B8JMOc5BV
英文原文
If you’re wondering why $INTC is flying after hours: Trump accidentally leaked in an interview that $APPL invested. https://t.co/1B8JMOc5BV
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SOUN 估值已充分反映，虽基本面稳健但上行空间有限。
我对 $SOUN 的看法是，在 45 亿美元市值下，其极端溢价已 largely priced in（大幅反映在股价中）。 2.69 亿美元现金，无债务。但季度亏损 1450 万美元（1.05 亿美元只是 optics（表面现象/会计处理）），基于 1.7 亿美元远期营收（fw revenue）实现 68% 的同比增长表现尚可。 这是一个稳健的做多标的，但在 23 倍远期市盈率下上行空间有限。谁知道呢，我可能错了。
英文原文
My opinion on $SOUN is that it’s already largely priced in with extreme premiums at $4.5b. $269m cash, debt free. But $14.5M loss q/q ($105m is just optics), growing revenue 68% y/y off $170m fw revenue is decent. It’s a solid long but upside is more limited with 23x fwd sales. Who knows I could be wrong
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POET/ALMU因周期极早需等待，建议6个月后建仓POET。
我对 $POET 和 $ALMU 的看法是，输入光互连(InP)的替代方案时间框架在2-3年，即2028-2029年。它们没有超大规模数据中心供应商(hyperscaler)的资质，也不在现代专用集成电路(ASIC)架构中，所以 $POET 提前了6个月，$ALMU 提前了1年。像 $RKLB 这样的散户宠儿通常也提前一年，但如果你等得够久，方向是对的。我可能会在6个月后买入 $POET，$ALMU 则更晚一些，但如果 $AXTI 的情况变得严重，它们可能会加速。所以两者都是很好的多头标的，只是由于处于周期极早期，这是一场等待游戏。
英文原文
My opinion around $POET and $ALMU is that inp workaround is 2-3 year timeframe in 2028-2029. They dont have hyperscaler qualifications and aren’t in modern ASIC architectures, so Poet is 6 months early, $ALMU is 1 year early. Retail favorites like $RKLB are often a year ahead of time but they’re directionally right if you wait long enough. I’d probably enter $POET in 6 months and $ALMU further out, but if $AXTI situation becomes severe maybe they get fastracked. So both great longs, it’s just a waiting game since it’s extremely extremely early into the cycle
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分析UMAC基本面优势，对比AIRO，认为两者均有上行空间。
很棒的选择。$UMAC 是一个很好的长线标的。我之前研究时选择了 $AIRO，但很难得有一家市值 5.2 亿美元、拥有 1.33 亿美元现金且无债务、毛利率 40%、同比增长 55%+ 的制造商。它是通过 $RCAT 向 $AVAV 供货的供应商。类似于 $POET 和 $MRVL 的情况。因此上行空间很大，我个人仍然更喜欢 $AIRO，但各有所好！
英文原文
Great choice. $UMAC is a great long. I ended up going with $AIRO when I looked into it earlier but it’s rare you have a $520m mc manufacturer that has - $133m cash, no debt - 40% gross margins - growing 55%+ y/y As a supplier to $AVAV through $RCAT. Similar to $POET $MRVL situation. So lot of upside, I still like $AIRO a lot more personally but to each their own!