供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1315 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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把 AIXA 比作光子领域的 ASML，承认其受益于资本开支周期，但自己并未持仓。
$AIXA 就像光子领域里的 $ASML，吃到了今年一轮大型资本开支周期。 即便如此，我个人也没有持仓，因为我不太喜欢半导体供应链里的设备卖家。 它们确实能明显受益，但大多数最大的受益者其实是那些可能借瓶颈抬价的公司，比如 $SNDK。 而在当前周期里，更像是 $LITE 这种 EML，或者像 $AXTI 这样的基板材料受益者。哪怕现在价格还没怎么上调。
英文原文
$AIXA is like the $ASML for photonics and captures a large capex cycle this year. Even so, I personally don't have positions, since I'm not a fan of equipment sellers in semi supply chains. That benefit materially, but most of the largest beneficiaries are the likely bottleneck price-hikers of the world as seen with $SNDK. And in current cycles that's EML like $LITE or substrates like $AXTI. Even though there haven't been much price hikes yet.
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反对“已经计价”的说法，强调 SIVE 已获 Jabil 与 O-Net 供应链确认，仍可能被机构低位吸筹。
是的。我非常不同意那些分析师帖子里说“已经计价了”，还叫散户在 2.5 亿美元市值时获利了结的说法。 -> 在 $SIVE 被 $JBL 证实会用于他们即将推出的收发器之后。 -> 在 $SIVE 已经进入 O-Net 供应链之后。 然后在如今最大的一级光学供应商之一已经确认是 Sivers 买家的情况下，还说这是“情绪驱动”？ 再强调一次，目前这只股票大部分仍由散户持有，所以我个人认为机构是在试图从散户手里吸筹。
英文原文
Yeah. I extremely disagree with analysts posts saying "it's priced in" and telling retail profits at $250M. -> After $SIVE confirmed $JBL confirmed they were using them for their upcoming transceivers. -> After $SIVE are in O-Net supply chains. Then saying it's "Sentiment Driven" after one of the largest T1 optical suppliers now is a confirmed Sivers buyer. Again, this is currently majority retail owned, so it's my opinion institutions are trying to acquire positions off retail hands.
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强调关键的是产能占比而不是供应商数量，因为上游材料仍来自中国。
@be25458 关键看的是你生产的产能占比，而不是供应商数量。 当制造 InP 基板所需的上游材料都来自中国时，供应商数量根本不重要。 我说的就是为什么 $AXTI / Vital 是一类瓶颈，而 Sumitomo / $AXTI 又是另一类瓶颈。
英文原文
@be25458 What matters is % of capacity you produce, not # of suppliers. The # of suppliers don't matter when the upstream materials come needed to make InP substrates come from China. That's what I mean when there's two different bottlenecks with $AXTI / Vital, then Sumitomo / $AXTI.
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承认出口管制风险，但强调若中国限制出口，西方超大规模云 AI 建设也会被拖慢。
@TheMathMan70 我一直都承认出口管制风险。但我说的是，如果 $AXTI 下跌 + 中国全面实施出口管制，那么西方超大规模云厂商的 AI 建设也会一起受阻（包括 $LITE 和其他公司）。
英文原文
@TheMathMan70 I’ve always acknowledged the export control risk. But what I’ve said is if $AXTI goes down + China goes full on export control, the Western hyperscaler AI buildout stalls as well (including $LITE and the others)
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解释 AXTI 的两层瓶颈：上游原料/精炼与 InP 基板生产。
@AlphaAllegro 这里其实有两个不同的瓶颈。一个是 $AXTI 控制的原料 / 精炼环节。 另一个是 InP 基板生产…… 如果你拿不到材料，就做不出晶圆。所以这也是为什么 AXT 本身天然就极其有价值。
英文原文
@AlphaAllegro There’s two different bottlenecks. One is feedstock/refineries that $AXTI controls. And then is InP substrate production… If you can’t get the materials, you can’t make the wafers. Which is why AXT is inherently super valuable
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引用 LITE 电话会，认为管理层等于承认 InP 基板是光子瓶颈，AXTI 因而拥有定价权。
$LITE 财报电话会原文： “最让我夜里睡不着的事情是：基板。相比之下，反而没那么担心反应器和把合适的工具装进 fab，虽然这也不是完全没挑战。” 他们基本上是在直接说 $AXTI 是光子领域的瓶颈。 尤其如果 InP 基板会让 $LITE 的 CEO 睡不着觉的话。 我过去几个月一直在提这点：如果 AXT 控制基板供应，它就对 $LITE、$COHR 以及美国 AI 建设拥有很大的定价权。 我在 X 上看到了很多误读，说什么“和住友签了七年协议”。但他们说的明明是现在就已经有供应紧张。而且那份协议也不代表 7 年内供应就一定够，尤其当中国开始对日本供应链制造晶圆所需的上游原料 / 材料实施出口管制时更是如此。 这甚至还没算上光子产业真正开始放量。 我关于 $AXTI 瓶颈的论点正在实时兑现，而 $LITE 又给了我们新的确认：InP 基板就是瓶颈。
英文原文
$LITE Transcript from Conference Call: "The thing that keeps me up at night most is: Substrates. Less so sort of reactors and getting the right tools into the fab, although it’s not a zero challenge." They basically went out and said $AXTI is the bottleneck for photonics. Especially if InP substrates keeps $LITE's CEO up at night. I've been mentioning it for the past few months, if AXT they control the substrate supply, they have a lot of pricing power over $LITE to $COHR and America's AI buildout. I've seen a ton of misinterpretation on X saying: "Seven-year agreement with Sumitomo". But they literally said there was supply tightness Today. And the agreement doesn't mean there will be enough supply for 7 years, especially when China export controls start to kick in on upstream feedstock/materials required by Japanese supply chains to make then. This is before Photonics has even started to ramp up. My $AXTI bottleneck thesis is playing out real time and we got new confirmation from $LITE that InP substrates is a bottleneck.
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表示不熟悉 M7U，但会研究一下，并说明自己通常不太喜欢 ASML 型设备卖家。
@Iamgerman__ 我以前没听说过 $M7U，不过我之后会去看看。通常我不太喜欢像 $ASML 这类的设备卖家，比如 $AIXA，但我喜欢你的思路！
英文原文
@Iamgerman__ I've never heard about $M7U before, but I'll take a look at it later. Typically not as much of a fan of $ASML type equipment sellers like $AIXA, but I like your thought process!
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展示CPO/光子学ETF模拟仓YTD表现，等权重投资收益率50%，看好光子学长周期。
Serenity的Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF模拟仓。各成分股年初至今收益率：$IQE：+282.5%，$AXTI：+246.6%，Landmark：167.54%，$AAOI：+157.37%，$SIVE：+113.08%，$SOI：+103.54%，$LITE：+100.27%，$LWLG：+92.35%，$VIAV：+88.71%，$AIXA：+73.92%，$AEHR：+70.4%，$CIEN：+67.67%，$FORM：+60.67%，$FOCI：+60.44%，$CAMT：+49.13%，$GLW：+46.77%，$SMHN：+45.94%，Fujikura：+43.89%，$COHR：+41.81%，$KEYS：+40.48%，$TSEM：+36.42%，$ASX：+29.89%，$MTSI：+28.34%，$NOK：+27.5%，Shin-Etsu：+27.33%，$ONTO：+26.28%，$BESI：+24.71%，$UMC：+18.11%，$INTC：+17.27%，$OXINF：+15.03%，$FN：+12.79%，Eoptolink：+11.82%，$TSM：+6.00%，$HIMX：+5.39%，$SMTC：+4.11%，Sumitomo：+3.67%，$CSCO：+3.25%，Innolight：+0.33%，$MRVL：+0.16%，$APH：-6.48%，$MXL：-7.62%，$AVGO：-7.99%，$POET：-12.99%，$TEL：-14.93%。这是回顾性的，但你们知道我在很多赢家仓位已经持有一段时间了（例如前六/七名，除了Landmark外的$AXTI或$LITE）。但如果你好奇年初投资整个光子学趋势的话，等权重收益率是多少？50.033%。我预计光子学长周期(supercycle)将持续未来数年，这些名字中的许多将成为未来的大受益者。特别是随着共封装光学(CPO)被用于扩展AI部署。光子学是AI的新架构范式。
英文原文
The Serenity Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF. YTD Returns of Each Index Stock: $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: 167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% Fujikura: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% Shin-Etsu: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: 15.03% $FN: +12.79% Eoptolink: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% Sumitomo: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% Innolight: +.33% $MRVL: +.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% This is retrospectively, but as you've known I've been in a lot of the winners for awhile (eg. Top 6/7 like $AXTI or $LITE aside from Landmark). However, if you were curious if you invested in the photonics trend as a whole at the start of the year. The equal weighted return? 50.033% I expect the Photonic Supercycle to last over the next several years, and many of these names to be large beneficaries going forward. Especially as CPO is used to scale AI deployments. Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI.
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认为出口管制虽然短期双刃剑，但长期会让 AXT 在 InP 供应链中更有控制力。
不会啊？出口管制对他们反而是好事，因为它会伤到像住友这样的竞争对手，而这些上游材料本来就必须从中国来。 因为他们需要这些材料来做 InP 基板。 短期看这是把双刃剑，但长期会让 $AXTI 对 InP 供应链拥有更多控制力。 正如你现在看到的，光子建设最终依赖 AXT，而这也让它成为供应链顶端极其关键的瓶颈。
英文原文
No? Export controls are good for them since it harms their competitors like Sumitomo as upstream materials the need come from China. Since they require them to make InP substrates. It’s a double edged sword short but gives $AXTI more control over the InP supply chain in the long run. As you’re seeing now, the photonics buildout relies on AXT, which now makes them a critical chokepoint at the top of the supply chain
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提出关键问题是 2028 年光子是否会成为大事，如果是，AXTI 可能会成为重大瓶颈。
@gahhhbor 更好的问题应该是……到 2028 年，光子会不会成为一件大事？ 如果会，那 $AXTI 很可能会成为一个类似 $SNDK 的重大瓶颈，而我个人会继续持有。 https://t.co/AfCc9iLm81
英文原文
@gahhhbor Better question to ask is.. is photonics going to be a major thing in 2028? If it is, $AXTI is probably going to be a major $SNDK like bottleneck, and I’m personally holding. https://t.co/AfCc9iLm81
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AI代理支付以USDC为主且单笔金额极低，市场低估其对传统卡支付网络的冲击。
我对市场没有定价卡支付网络和交换费（如$V和$MA）的长期颠覆感到惊讶。 由$CRCL和$COIN推动。 来自Circle的全球市场负责人： "在过去九个月里，AI代理完成了1.4亿笔支付，总交易量达4300万美元。 其中98.6%以USDC结算，平均交易金额仅为0.31美元。" 像$PYPL这样的卡网络和百分比收费的支付处理器可能要被"烤熟"了？
英文原文
I’m surprised markets aren’t pricing in long term disruption of card networks + interchange like $V and $MA. By $CRCL and $COIN. From Global Markets Head at Circle: "Over the past nine months, AI agents completed 140 million payments with a total transaction volume of 43 million US dollars. Among these, 98.6% were settled in USDC, with an average transaction amount of only 0.31 US dollars." Card networks and % fee payment processors like $PYPL are likely going to be cooked?
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说明 POET 是买 SIVE 的激光再进行封装，SIVE 才是光源。
@ram_blings 因为 $POET 是先买 $SIVE 的激光，再把它封装起来。 $SIVE 才是光源，这里并不是 POET 在直接起作用。
英文原文
@ram_blings Because $POET buys $SIVE lasers then packages it. $SIVE is the light source, $POET isn’t being used here
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说明 SIVE 会随着 Win Semi 认证扩大产能。
@CMunchSand 他们会随着 Win Semi 的认证去扩产。
英文原文
@CMunchSand They scale capacity with win semi qualification
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澄清这是 Jabil 采用 SIVE 作为新收发器光源的全新消息，不是 Win Semi。
@MaxtheCat145 不，除非你有来源，否则这就是全新的消息：Jabil 在即将推出的收发器里使用 $SIVE 作为它的光源。 我觉得你说的是 Win Semi。
英文原文
@MaxtheCat145 No, unless you have a source this is brand new news that Jabil is using $SIVE as their light source for upcoming transceivers. I think you’re thinking of Win Semi
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把 SIVE 视作 MRVL Celestial、Ayar、O-Net、Jabil 等链路的激光源，最终服务于大型云厂商。
它们字面上就是 $MRVL Celestial 通过 $POET、Ayar -> AI Chip / GUC、O-Net，乃至现在的 Jabil 所使用的光源。 所以终端客户大概率全是 $MSFT、$GOOGL、$META、$AMZN……也就是说，它们可能会成为整个超大规模云供应链，甚至亚洲供应链的未来潜在光源。 市值只有 2.8 亿美元，wtf？ 按 30 亿到 50 亿美元去看都不夸张。
英文原文
They're literally the light source for $MRVL Celestial through $POET, Ayar -> Ai Chip/GUC, O-Net, and now Jabil. So end users are probably all $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN... The future potential light source for the entire hyperscaler supply chain and even ones in Asia. At $280m MC, wtf? $3-5B MC for $SIVE near term is not far fetched.
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Sivers成为Jabil 1.6T光收发器激光光源供应商，是其在CPO/硅光子供应链中的重大突破。
Sivers <$SIVE/$SIVEF>为Jabil（270亿美元市值）<$JBL>的1.6T长距离光(LRO)收发器提供光源。 作为激光光源供应商。 这无疑是$SIVE（2.8亿美元市值）公司历史上——也是今天$NVDA GTC大会上——最大的新闻…… Jabil从$AMZN、$GOOGL和$META等终端用户那里带来约300亿美元以上的收入。 以及$NVDA、Arista、$AVGO和Cisco等OEM厂商。 尤其是在收购$INTC的硅光子(SiPh)光收发器业务后，他们在该领域已是一级供应商(Tier 1)。 Sivers为Jabil提供连续波分布反馈激光器(CW DFB laser)光源，应用于硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)和共封装光学(CPO)及超大规模云服务商供应链： 对于一家市值仅2.8亿美元的公司来说，这是难以置信的，而且他们是光子学领域我见过的最不知名却最具潜力的公司。 $NVDA GTC的消息只是进一步巩固了这一投资论点。 我认为他们真的有机会成为下一个$LITE。
英文原文
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > powering Jabil ($27B MC) < $JBL > 1.6T LRO transcivers. As the laser light source. Is by far the biggest news from $NVDA GTC for Sivers ($280M MC) today... in history. Jabil brings in about $30B+ revenue from end users like $AMZN, $GOOGL, and $META. As well as OEMs like $NVDA, Arista, $AVGO, and Cisco. Especially after acquiring $INTC SiPH optical transceiver business, they're Tier 1 in the space. Sivers powering Jabil as the CW DFB laser source for Silicon Photonics and CPO and hyperscaler supply chains: At a $280M MC is incredible, and they're one of the most unknown yet highest potential company I've seen in the photonics sector so far. And the news from $NVDA GTC just cemented this thesis further. I think they genuinely have a shot at becoming the next $LITE.
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Sivers被指定为Jabil 1.6T光收发器光源供应商，验证其CPO/硅光子学光源论点
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > 将为 Jabil ($JBL) 的下一代光收发器提供动力。 Sivers 被指定为 Jabil 旗舰 1.6T 模块的光源供应商…… 这可能是迄今为止最大的新闻？ 这验证了 Sivers 作为共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学光源的下一个 $LITE 的论点。 来源：Semicap，$NVDA GTC。
英文原文
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF >to power Jabil ( $JBL ) next-generation optical transceivers. The fact Sivers is named as the power source for Jabil's flagship 1.6T module… is probably the biggest news to date? This is thesis validation that Sivers is the next $LITE as the light source for CPO/Silicon Photonics. Source: Semicap, $NVDA GTC.
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分析伊朗冲突油价对供应链影响，低毛利率企业受冲击大于内存公司，看空持续高油价。
我在伊朗冲突前做过分析，并用石油多头如 $CVX 进行对冲。我卖出了很多亚洲股票如Unimicron和Nanya，获取已实现短期资本利得。 我已经做过石油/LNG/氦气的分析，发现对利润率影响很小到轻微，但主要影响毛利率较低的5-10%的公司，而不是像Samsung/SK Hynix这样的内存公司。所以我个人方向性做多，虽然隐含波动率(IV)交易结果不错。 如果油价极高，我预期会有Taco或美国干预，所以我不看好持续高企的原油价格。
英文原文
I did before the Iran conflict and hedged with oil longs like $CVX. I sold off a lot of Asian names like Unimicron and Nanya for realized short term capital gains. I already did an analysis on oil/lng/helium and found their to be little to slightly moderate affect on margins, but mainly affects companies with lower gross margins sitting at 5-10% rather than memory ones like Samsung/SK Hynix. So I’m personally directionally long although the IV trade turned out well. If oil prices are extremely high, I expect a Taco or US intervention so I’m not bullish on sustained high crude prices
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分析Sivers和IQE在硅光子学供应链中的卡位，看好其从传统业务向InP光子学的转型机会。
$SIVE/$SIVEF和$IQE。Sivers为CPO/硅光子学(SiPh)制造激光阵列和CW DFB激光器。并且已经嵌入超大规模云厂商如$AMZN和$MSFT集群的供应链，作为Captive模式如$MRVL Celestial和Merchant模式如Ayar的光源。然后他们通过晶圆(win)认证来提升产能，这样在内部扩产时不会消耗太多资本支出。$IQE是InP外延片(epiwafer)供应商，正在将legacy沉积反应器重构用于光子学供应链。他们已经是$LITE的已知供应商，另一大供应商是Landmark，估值约40亿美元（但产能潜力较小）。这基本上相当于将$IREN或$RIOT的比特币矿工转为HPC，但针对的是光子学。有相当多的债务，但这更多是在赌台湾销售能通过，以及管理层会转向InP生产以获得重新评级。所以这两家是我目前最看好的。
英文原文
$SIVE / $SIVEF and $IQE. Sivers makes laser arrays and cw dfb lasers for cpo/silicon photonics. And is embedded into hyperscaler supply chains like $AMZN and $MSFT clusters as the light source from captive models like $MRVL celestial from $POET and merchant models from Ayar. Then they’re up capacity through win qualification, so they don’t burn as much capex scaling in house. $IQE is InP epiwafer and refactoring reactors from legacy drag to photonic supply chains. They’re already a known $LITE supplier and the other biggest one is Landmark sitting around ~$4B (with less latent capacity). This is basically the equivalent of $IREN or $RIOT turning their Bitcoin miners into HPC, but for photonics. There’s a decent amount of debt, but this is more of a guess that their Taiwan sales will go through and management will pivot toward InP production for rerating. So those two are my favorites right now
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需求可见性清晰，半导体内存等供应链售罄至2028，策略是中期持有不看空。
总有一个牛市在某处。我通常善于早期发现它（例如2024年$ MSTR比特币减半领头羊），所以这并不总是适用于AI供应链。 但如果像$LITE这样的公司到2028年都售罄了，内存（memory）厂商到2028年都售罄了，怎么能看到熊市？ 会有短期波动，但考虑到这种需求可见性，除非发生重大宏观事件，否则很难看到中期回调。在那些情况下，如果基本面没有变化，只是流动性问题，那我就是持有。
英文原文
There’s always a bull market somewhere. I’m typically good at spotting it early (eg. 2024 was $MSTR Bitcoin halving frontrun) so doesn’t always apply to AI supply chains. But hard to see a bear market if companies like $LITE are sold out until 2028? And memory names are sold out until 2028? There’s short term volatility, but with that type of demand visibility, hard to see medium term drawdowns unless there’s a major macro event. And in those cases, if fundamentals don’t change and it’s just liquidity, then I’m a holder.
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把 LITE 的历史涨幅当作参照，认为 SIVE 也可能成为下一次架构转变中的上游激光瓶颈。
我是说，$LITE 从 17 美元涨到 709 美元？任何公司都得从某个地方开始。 我说的是这种轨迹，不是说明它明年就会到 500 亿美元市值。 但它们的位置很好：会成为下一次架构转变中的上游激光瓶颈，就像 $LITE 在当前 EML 周期里的角色一样。
英文原文
I mean $LITE went from $17 to $709? Every companies gotta start somewhere. Just the trajectory, definitely not $50B MC by next year. However, they're positioned well as the upstream laser bottleneck for the next architectural shift, similar to what $LITE is in current EML cycles.
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认为设备卖家也会受益，但不像使用这些设备的公司那样能从光子超级周期中获得同等价值。
对，我在研究把反应器改造成 InP epiwafer 相关产线的 $IQE 之后，对这些公司比较熟悉了。 我个人不太喜欢像 $AXIA 或 Oxford 这样的设备卖家。 它们当然会带来明显的营收加速，但它们并不会像真正使用这些设备的公司那样，从光子超级周期里拿到同等价值。 不过因为资本开支周期会带来实际的营收增长，所以这类标的对更偏风险厌恶的对冲基金来说也非常受欢迎。
英文原文
Yep! I'm familiar with them after doing DD on refactoring reactors for inp epiwafers $IQE. Personally not a fan of equipment sellers like $AXIA or Oxford. They have material revenue acceleration, but they don't really derive the same value from the photonics supercycle as the companies that use them do. However, given there is material revenue growth from capex cycles, it's very popular with hedge funds that are more risk-averse.
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指出在光子行业里，激光器才是真正瓶颈，尤其是 EML 产能和自有垂直整合带来的溢价。
你说下游公司通常拥有更强定价权，这点是对的。比如 $AAPL 卖 iPhone，比组装它的 Foxconn 赚得更多。 但在光子行业里，目前的瓶颈是激光器，而且激光器极其、极其值钱。 尤其是现在的 EML 产能，因为其他玩家像 Innolight / Eoptolink 之类做不了这部分。 这其实就是 $LITE 溢价的大部分来源，再加上他们自己激光器带来的 captive 垂直整合，服务于 OCS 和 1.6T。
英文原文
You're correct in saying downstream players typically have more pricing power. $AAPL for example, makes the most for selling the IPhone than Foxconn that assembles it. However, in photonics, lasers are the bottleneck currently and are extremely, extremely valuable. Especially EML capacity right now, since other players like Innolight/Eoptolink cannot do that. That's where most of $LITE's premiums come from actually + using their own lasers for captive vertical integration with OCS and 1.6T.
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分析瑞典CPO上游激光供应商在供应链中的竞争优势和时机
都是很好的问题！我的看法： - 随着$NVDA GTC大会的到来，CPO（共封装光学）今天正在达到拐点。所以我认为时机对了。之前的话还太早。 - 基本上没有被发现，就像我在供应链映射中提到的，大多数机构不会深入上游去精确定位主要玩家（从$AXTI就能看出这一点）。 - 斯德哥尔摩市场非常小众，关注的人不多。 - 他们进行了再融资，所以财务状况健康。债务是1200万美元可转换贷款（10.85%）和500万美元定期贷款（12%），对于超大规模供应商链来说微不足道。 至于规模方面：赢得半导体资质认证非常关键。 从我看来，这比$MSFT Maia 2028年的 captive model（如$SIVE光源 -> $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia）模式风险更低，基本上保证了未来从超大规模供应商链获得收入。 然后还有Ayar等很多潜力。 作为上游激光供应商，无论怎样都能赢，但它确实需要与$LITE、$MTSI、$OCHR等竞争。 我的论点是，时机足够早，可以根据$POET等公司的规格定制和联合设计cw DFB激光器，所以更多是设计嵌入。 同样适用于$POET和Marvell Celestial。
英文原文
All good questions! My thoughts: - With $NVDA GTC, CPO is hitting their inflection point today. So I think the timing is right. Before, it was too early. - Largely undiscovered, as I mentioned in supply chain mapping, most institutions don't go upstream to pinpoint major players (as seen with $AXTI). - Stockholm market so very niche, not as many people pay attention to it. - They refinanced, so it's in a healthy spot. Debt is $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which is pennies to hyperscaler supply chains. As for scale: Win semi qualification is very critical. It's more derisked in my view from captive models like $SIVE (light source) $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia in 2028 kind of guaranteeing revenue in the future from hyperscaler supply chains. Then there's a lot of potential with Ayar, and others. It's the upstream laser supplier so wins either way across the board, but it does need to compete with $LITE, $MTSI, $OCHR and others. My argument was that it was early enough to tailor and co-design cw dfb lasers toward companies like $POET specifications so it's more designed in. Same argument with $POET and Marvell Celestial.
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Sivers涨幅29%达2.82亿市值，作者认为其作为CPO/硅光子学上游激光供应商，是下一个LITE，尚未被市场定价。
Sivers今天又涨了29%，市值达到2.82亿美元。我真心认为$SIVE可能是下一个$LITE。因为他们被定位为下一代超大规模算力供应链接构的光源。当scale up-scale out架构转向共封装光学(CPO)和硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)时——光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)的开端。那些从$POET和Ayar购买并封装其激光阵列/cw DFB激光(连续波分布反馈激光器)的公司——估值约10亿至40亿美元以上（不包括O-Net或未披露的公司）。在当前可插拔光收发器(Pluggable Transceiver)周期中：激光供应商通常比其购买光源的封装对手方获得更高的估值溢价。所以，我确实认为$SIVE在很大程度上被市场忽视，远未反映在股价中。（该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，仅供理解语境）：$SIVE是CPO和硅光子学的上游激光供应商。他们是未来类似$COHR/$LITE的光源供应商，可能用于：- $AMZN Trainium集群- $MSFT Maia集群以及可能的其他超大规模算力商如$META MTAI和$GOOGL TPU集群。目前市值约2亿美元。关联映射（推测性）：$SIVE（光源）-> $POET（光学中介层）-> $MRVL（可能是Celestial内部供应）-> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium。$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium。$SIVE（光源）-> Enablence -> O-Net -> ？亚洲超大规模算力商。持续进行中：$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> GUC -> ?（Google $TPU）。$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar（TeraPHY/SuperNova）-> Wiwynn（内部CPO）-> ?（$MSFT, $META历史上Wiwynn最大的客户）。由于类似$MRVL Celestial这样的内部供应模式，他们获得了免费搭乘。然而，他们确实在商业模式下与Lumentum、Coherent和$MTSI多源自ELS竞争，并与Ayar一起获胜。但无论哪种方式他们都能赢。对于大规模生产爬坡，其中很大一部分取决于正在进行的Win半导体验证，但这可能是一个重要指标。再强调一下，供应链BOM（物料清单）是极其机密的。$AMZN永远不会告诉任何人"嘿，我们用$SIVE"。但如果你把1+1+1+1+1放在一起，你可以拼凑出可能的供应商。大多数人看到"Poet Starlight"使用$SIVE，或Ayar使用$SIVE。但没有映射所有多跳关系来看它们最终去向哪里。我确实认为$SIVE是一个非常未被发现的机遇，作为未来硅光子学领域可能的迷你版$LITE，当时市值2亿美元。作为未来CPO/硅光子学规模扩展的上游激光供应商，用于cw DFB激光器和激光阵列的超大规模算力供应链接构。
英文原文
Sivers is up another 29% to a $282M marketcap today. I genuinely think $SIVE could be the next $LITE. As they’re positioned as the light source for the next generation of hyperscaler supply chains. When scale up-scale out architectures transition to CPO & Silicon photonics. For the start of next Photonics Supercycle. The companies that buy and package their laser arrays/cw dfb lasers from $POET to Ayar? Are worth ~$1B-$4B+ (not including o-net or undisclosed). With current pluggable transceiver cycles: Laser suppliers typically command higher valuation premiums than their packaging counterparties that buy the light source. So, I do think $SIVE is largely undiscovered by markets and far from being priced in.
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用设计/组装、激光/收发器两类公司估值作比较，推导 SIVE 与 AAOI 的合理市值区间。
在设计 / 组装这一侧： Eoptolink（中国）：约 500 亿美元市值，约 53 亿美元营收 Innolight（中国）：约 840 亿美元市值，约 110 亿美元营收 $FN 这类低毛利组装公司约 200 亿美元市值，对应约 40 亿美元预期营收。 在激光 / 收发器这一侧： $LITE 约 470 亿美元市值：到 2026 年末营收将超过 30 亿美元。 然后是 $AAOI，现在月收入 3.75 亿美元左右，供应链位于激光 / 设计 / 组装这一层，目标年化营收约 45 亿美元 + 继续增长。 按这个逻辑，$AAOI 估值到 130 亿美元似乎合理，因为它还没真正到那个数字。 而 $SIVE，你只要看 CPO 的爬坡去猜就行。 通常先进封装公司（至少在当前周期里）会比它们对应的激光公司拿到更低的估值，除非它们自己也做设计。 $SIVE 给 $POET / Ayar 等公司供激光，而后者估值都在 10 亿到 30 亿美元+。 所以 $SIVE 至少也应该有 10 亿美元左右的下限。 这只是拿相似公司的估值 / 营收预测做比较，然后再做一个估算。
英文原文
For design/assembly Eoptolink (China): ~$50B MC: ~$5.3B revenue Innolight (China): ~$84B MC ~$11B revenue $FN for low margin assembly ~$20B MC, ~$4B projected revenue. For lasers/transceiver: $LITE ~$47B MC: ~$3B+ EOY 2026. Then you have $AAOI, $375M/month for laser/design/assembly supply chain, ~$4.5B ARR target + growth. Maybe ~$13B sounds reasonable since it hasn't hit those numbers yet. It's discretionary. As for $SIVE, you can just look at CPO ramp and just take a guess. Usually advanced packaging companies (at least in current cycles), have around the less valuation as their laser counterparts (Unless they do design). $SIVE supplies lasers to $POET/Ayar both of which are $1-$3B+ valuations. So $SIVE at least should be ~$1B low end. This is just comparing similar company valuation/revenue projections, then making an estimate.
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认为真正值得投资的是能给超大规模云光学超级周期供货、并受 AI TAM 扩张驱动的欧洲公司。
随机一家低市盈率的欧洲公司，和一家给超大规模云供应链光子超级周期供应激光的公司，是不一样的。 如果一家欧洲市场公司没有像 Soitec 或 $SIVE 这样来自 AI 的极端 TAM 扩张，我个人不会投。
英文原文
There’s a difference between a random European company trading at low p/e. Then one that suppliers lasers for the Optical Supercycle to hyperscaler supply chains. I personally would not invest in European markets unless it had extreme TAM expansion from AI like Soitec or $SIVE.
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想了解 Lumentum 关于收发器和 CPO 扩产的更多信息。
@lisasufanclub 嘿！你能私信我更多关于这段话的信息吗？ “Lumentum 其实并不太想做收发器，因为和他们其他产品相比，收发器利润更低，但他们反而能把收发器的毛利率拉起来。” 还有他们关于 CPO 扩产的那段讨论。
英文原文
@lisasufanclub Hey! Can you Dm me more info about “Lumentum, which doesn't really want to do transceivers cause it's lower margins compared to other products, is actually able to raise margins for transceivers” And then their CPO scale up talk
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$SIVE作为2亿美元市值的硅光子学上游激光供应商，是未被发现的机遇，供应超大规模业者CPO供应链。
$SIVE是CPO和硅光子学的上游激光供应商。 他们是未来可能像$COHR和$LITE那样的光源供应商，用于： - $AMZN Trainium集群 - $MSFT Maia集群 以及可能还有其他超大规模业者的$META MTAI和$GOOGL TPU集群。 市值约2亿美元。 关系映射（推测性）： $SIVE（光源）-> $POET（光学中介层）-> $MRVL（可能是Celestial专用）-> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium $SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium $SIVE（光源）-> Enablence -> O-Net -> ? 亚洲超大规模业者 正在进行中： $SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> GUC -> ?（Google $TPU） $SIVE（光源）-> Ayar（TeraPHY/SuperNova）-> Wiwynn（专用CPO）-> ?（$MSFT、$META历史上是Wiwynn最大的客户）。 由于$MRVL Celestial等专用模式的存在，他们可以免费搭便车。 然而，他们在与Lumentum、Coherent和$MTSI的多源ELS竞争中对抗Ayar并获胜，即使在商业模式下也是如此。 但无论哪种模式他们都能获胜。 对于大规模生产爬坡，其中很大一部分取决于正在进行中的Win半导体认证，但这可能是一个重要指标。 同样，供应链BOM（物料清单）极度保密。$AMZN永远不会告诉任何人"嘿，我们使用$SIVE"。 但如果你把1+1+1+1+1加起来，你可以拼凑出可能的供应商。 大多数人都知道"Poet Starlight"使用$SIVE。或者Ayar使用$SIVE。但没有将所有多跳关系映射到最终目的地。 我真的认为$SIVE是一个极未被发现的机遇，可能成为下一个小型$LITE，用于硅光子学，在2亿美元市值下。 因为他们是未来CPO/硅光子学规模化扩展中超大规模业者供应链的上游激光供应商，cw DFB激光器和激光阵列用于扩展。
英文原文
$SIVE is the upstream laser supplier for CPO and Silicon Photonics. They're the likely $COHR / $LITE type future light source for: - $AMZN Trainium Clusters - $MSFT Maia Clusters and possibly other hyperscalers like $META MTAI and $GOOGL TPU clusters. At a ~$200M MC. Relational Mapping (speculative): $SIVE (light source) -> $POET (optical interposers) -> $MRVL (Likely Celestial Captive) -> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium. $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium $SIVE (light source) -> Enablence -> O-Net -> ? Asia Hyperscalers _ Ongoing: $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> GUC -> ? (Google $TPU) $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar (TeraPHY/SuperNova)-> Wiwynn (captive CPO) -> ? ( $MSFT, $META historically Wiwynn's largest clients). Because of captive models like $MRVL Celestial, they get a free ride. However, they do compete multi-source ELS against Lumentum, Coherent, and $MTSI with Ayar and win anyway in merchant models. But they win either way. For high-volume production ramp up, a large part of it depends on the ongoing Win semi qualification, but this will likely be a large indicator. Again supply chain BOM is extremely confidential. $AMZN will never tell anyone "Hey, we use $SIVE ". But if you put 1+1+1+1+1 together, you can piece together the likely suppliers. Most people see "Poet Starlight" uses $SIVE. Or Ayar uses $SIVE. But don't map all the multi-hop relations to see where they end up. I do think $SIVE is an extremely undiscovered opportunity as the next possible mini $LITE for Silicon Photonics at $200m MC. As they're the likely upstream laser supplier for hyperscaler supply chains for future CPO/Silicon Photonics scale up with cw dfb lasers and scale out with laser arrays.
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认为铜在未来两年更多只是过渡工具，光学和 CPO 才是方向。
@ram_blings 我并不看多铜。它在未来两年里，最多只是个过渡工具。 尽管 $NVDA 的 CEO 说他们会需要更多铜、光学和 CPO。
英文原文
@ram_blings I’m not bullish on copper. They’re used arguablely more as transitional tool over the next two years. Even though $NVDA CEO said they’ll need more copper, optics, and CPO.