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说自己更偏好大盘配置，但对 SIVE 的 CW DWB 激光扩张仍有信心。
@joyboydonepiece 对小票分配太多，我一般不推荐——这其实是个聪明的策略。 我个人为了风险管理，也大多把仓位集中在大一些的名字上。 不过我确实相信自己在 $SIVE 上是对的，尤其是它和 Win semi 一起做 CW DWB 激光扩产这件事。
英文原文
@joyboydonepiece Yeah I don't recommend allocating much to smaller names in general, that's a smart strategy. I personally hold most of my concentration in larger names for risk-management too. However, I do believe I'm right with $SIVE with their CW DWB laser scale up with Win semi.
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抱怨评论区一直要他晒仓位。
@KiakotosC 评论区里一直有人让我晒仓位，真的烦死了。
英文原文
@KiakotosC The people asking me to show my positions in the comments sections got really annoying.
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正式买入 0.5%-1% 的 SIVE，认为其 CW 激光瓶颈被严重低估。
我刚刚买了大约 $SIVE 公司本身 0.5% 到 1% 的股份。 我说过，他们未来在 CW 激光上的瓶颈被严重低估了，所以我也用实际行动证明了我的观点。 尤其是它已经被确认为 Jabil、$MRVL Celestial、O-Net 以及其他超大规模云厂商的光源供应商。 https://t.co/9xUu4OTbJt
英文原文
I just bought ~.5%-1% of $SIVE as a company. I said their future CW laser chokepoint is grossly mispriced. And I put my money where my mouth is. Especially when they're the confirmed light source for Jabil, $MRVL Celestial, O-Net, and other hyperscalers. https://t.co/9xUu4OTbJt
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说对单发激光器与 WDM 的结论搞错了。
@innovavest 他在关于单发射激光器以及 $LITE 和 $SIVE 的 WDM 这个结论上搞错了。
英文原文
@innovavest He got the conclusion wrong regarding single emitter lasers with $LITE and $SIVE WDM.
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吐槽 X 正在变成只看内幕卖出、不看基本面的 WSB。
@analyt1c 现在 X 越来越像 WallStreetBets 了：大家分析一家公司只看内幕卖出，却把这家公司每一个基本面都忽略掉。
英文原文
@analyt1c X is turning into WallStreetBets where you analyze a company based on insider sales while ignoring every single fundamental of the company.
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SIVE作为CPO光源瓶颈被低估，2500万市值太低，坚信将成下一个AXTI
这就是为什么在进入交易前需要有信念。如果你了解$SIVE在CW激光领域为Jabil、$MRVL Celestial等共封装光学(CPO)供应，就会明白2.5亿美元市值作为光源瓶颈来说太低了。我们高度相信，一年后这会像$AXTI一样，因为这将是CPO规模化扩展的架构范式。在上涨过程中我不关心波动，因为我对光子学的发展如何演绎有坚定的信念。
英文原文
This is why you need to have conviction before entering a trade. If you knew $SIVE positioning in the CW laser space to Jabil, $MRVL Celestial, and others for CPO. $250M MC as the light source chokepoint would be a joke. High confidence we’ll see this end up like $AXTI in a years time since it this will be the architectural paradigm for cpo scale up. Don’t care about volatility in the way up because I have conviction in how this plays out with photonics.
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认为资源错配、伊朗局势和供应链混乱会让能源与军工受益。
结果发现……我们其实什么牌都没有。 -> $SPY 指数跌了 5% -> $HOOD 和 $RDDT 这些个股跌得更惨，超过 40% -> 机器人或 AI 所需的稀土供应链乱成一团 -> 我们正在和供应重要材料的盟友加拿大和欧洲闹别扭（提示：美国对很多这些材料根本没有国内精炼能力） -> 伊朗局势现在一团糟 -> 最大受益者是石油公司和战争承包商 -> 俄罗斯因为石油制裁被解除而高兴 -> 超大规模云厂商把全部储备都砸进 AI CapEx，而中国则从蒸馏技术里拿走了所有好处（没有 KYC 终端） -> 财富差距继续扩大，大家都在 paycheck to paycheck 地活着，而且随着 AI 冲击就业，大规模裁员很可能会发生 然后作为副线任务，家里的一些人靠 memecoin 发币赚钱，再把整个行业卖给大银行。 在我们可能开始对伊朗进行地面入侵之前，能不能先把供应链和前沿技术保住？ 我永远会看多美国，但这是我见过最蠢的一连串决策之一。 到底在发生什么？
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Turns out… we had no cards after all. -> Indexes from $SPY are down -5% -> Individual stocks from $HOOD and $RDDT are down worse 40%+ -> Rare earths supply chains needed for robotics or AI are a mess. -> We’re fighting with our allies from Canada and Europe that supply us with all the important materials for frontier supply chains (hint: America has no domestic refineries for many of these) -> Iran situation is now a mess -> Main beneficiaries are Oil companies and War contractors -> Russia is happy from Oil sanctions being lifted -> Hyperscalers are pouring all their reserves into AI capex, with China reaping all the benefits from distillation. (No KYC endpoints) -> Wealth gap keeps increasing, people living paycheck to paychecks, and mass layoffs are likely to happen as AI disrupts jobs. Then as a side quest, people in the family are enriching themselves through memecoin launches then selling the industry out to big banks. Can we at least secure our supply chains and frontier technologies first before we likely start a ground invasion of Iran? I’ll always be bullish on America but these are some of these dumbest series of decisions I’ve seen. WTF is even happening?
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希望有真正中立的人来负责，而不是继续打压 crypto。
@cryptoxmiko 也许该找个真正中立的人来做？ 不是 Gary Gensler / Warren 这种想起诉 $HOOD 和所有 crypto CEO 的人。 也不是 Sacks——他一边禁止收益率（这会和 0.3% 的银行活期账户竞争），一边又把 crypto 的每一个瓶颈都合法地交给银行。
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@cryptoxmiko Maybe someone genuinely in the center? Not Gary Gensler/Warrens trying to sue $HOOD and every crypto CEO. And not Sacks who banned yields which competes with .3% bank checking accounts then legally handing every chokepoint in crypto over to banks.
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说自己对 Saylor 的看法变了，但对新加密政策很失望。
@qxiAixp 我对 @saylor 的看法在这段时间里完全变了。他至少一直都说到做到。 但我真的很失望，新出台的 crypto 政策实际上对整个行业是净负面。
英文原文
@qxiAixp My opinion of @saylor completely changed over time. He’s at least been true to his word the entire time. Very disappointed that the new Crypto policies was actually a net negative for the industry…
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认为 IQE 处于困境但有价值，可能会被 LITE 或 Landmark 收购。
@rGeQM1SvLq29316 @Blinklebloop $IQE 的确已经陷入困境，但它其实拥有最高的内在价值。就像 $IREN 的 GW 产能来自比特币挖矿一样。只需要把业务改造成 InP 再重组就行。 我非常确定 $LITE 或 Landmark 会有兴趣收购这家公司。
英文原文
@rGeQM1SvLq29316 @Blinklebloop $IQE is legitimately in distress but has the highest amount of inherent value (like $IREN GW capacity from Bitcoin mining. Just need to refactor to InP and restructure. I’m very sure $LITE or Landmark are interested in buying the company
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认为 SOI 很强，而 SIVE 和 AAOI 是自己看好的高成长标的。
@Blinklebloop 同意，$SOI 在所有标的里大概是最强的位置之一。 对我来说，$SIVE 和 $AAOI 是继 $AXTI 之后的高成长火箭船。 这几个名字争议都很大，但我对它们都很有信念。
英文原文
@Blinklebloop Agreed $SOI has arguably one of the strongest positions out of everything. $SIVE and $AAOI were the hypergrowth rocket ships following $AXTI for me. Lot of debate around them but I have conviction in them both
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说美国把先进 AI 项目拱手交给中国是太过放松管制。
@FractalVeritas 当时管得太松了，我们基本上把先进 AI 项目拱手交给中国了。
英文原文
@FractalVeritas It was too deregulated and we basically handed our advanced AI program over to China.
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对 crypto 政策和银行偏向感到困惑和失望。
我一开始是支持 David 的，但那到底算什么操作？ Crypto 公司到现在甚至都还很难接入银行系统。 然后还想推一些偏向银行的法律，把 crypto 公司去银行化？ 再把收益率这种创新直接禁止掉？我真的都不知道发生了什么。
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I was advocating for David from the start but WTF was that? Crypto companies still can’t even get banked. Then trying to push through laws in favor of the banks that de-bank crypto companies? Then banning innovation all together in the form of yields? I genuinely dont even know what happened.
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批评David Sacks担任加密货币沙皇期间的政策反而将行业控制权拱手让给银行，造成行业血洗。
能不能有人诚实地告诉我，大卫·萨克斯"沙皇"这个职位的成就是什么？ >数十亿美元的流动性从比特币、以太坊和山寨币被抽走，流入了Trump Coin和Melania Coin >GENIUS Act（天才法案）通过，禁止稳定币发行商（如$CRCL和Tether）支付利息，因为它们会与银行竞争 >试图推动立法，通过Clarity Act（清晰法案）将加密货币咽喉要道的所有控制权交给银行 >试图通过Clarity Act禁止稳定币相关的第三方提供收益 >试图禁止非美元计价稳定币如DAI（造成流动性流失） >银行仍然不接入加密货币公司，甚至会禁止你注册。 >美国实际上只有少数几家愿意这样做，比如Cross River或Customers Bank？ >我们选举他时希望实现的目标一个都没完成，除了给加密货币公司"提供选项"去申请银行牌照。 >但只有与政府关系密切的人获得了豁免，比如Anduril的创始人？真正的加密货币公司一个都没有？ >现在大银行很快将掌控所有主要咽喉要道？ >这是加密货币行业史上最大规模的财富转移和血洗。 >甚至以太坊在Gary Gensler任职期间还更高。
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Can someone tell me honestly what the accomplishments of David Sacks “Tzar" position was? > Billions of Liquidity drained from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins into Trump Coin and Melania Coin > GENIUS Act passed and banned stablecoin issuers (like $CRCL and Tether) from paying interest, which would compete vs Banks > Attempted to push through legislation that would hand all control over Crypto chokepoints over to banks through Clarity Act. > Attempted to ban Stablecoin related 3rd parties from giving yields through the Clarity Act > Attempted to ban non-USD denominated stablecoins like DAI (liquidity drain). > Banks still don't onboard crypto companies and will ban you from onboarding. > There's literally only a few in the US that do like Cross River or Customers Bank? Nothing that we elected him for was accomplished aside from Crypto companies having the "option" to apply for Banking Charters. But only people close to the administration like Andruil’s founder got a pass? Not any actual crypto companies? And now big Banks will have all the major chokepoints soon? This was the biggest transfer of wealth and bloodbaths in the crypto industry to date. Even Ethereum is higher when Gary Genseler was in office.
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认为内幕卖出本身是很大的噪音，不该被当成主线。
@ntcoffeee 我不知道我还要说多少次……但内幕卖出是任何股票里最大的噪音之一。
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@ntcoffeee I'm not sure how many times I need to say this... but insider selling is one of the biggest noise any stock can have.
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说自己做多 Win Semi 只是因为沿途梗很多。
@ram_blings 我之所以做多 Win Semi，是因为一路上的梗实在太多了，更新起来会很好玩。
英文原文
@ram_blings I went long on Win Semi because there's too many puns I can make with updates along the way up.
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认为 2.9 亿市值放在 MRVL、JBL 和超大规模云流量链条里，等待 CPO 放量就好。
@Johnyom8 一家 2.9 亿美元市值的公司，已经被设计进 $MRVL、$JBL 和超大规模云厂流量链条里。 我不觉得自己判断错了，CPO 的放量路径就是这样演化的。 这只是等量放大的问题。
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@Johnyom8 $290m MC for a company designed into $MRVL, $JBL and hyperscaler flows. I don't think I'm wrong seeing how CPO scale up evolves. Just a waiting game for volume ramp.
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用 AMD 作为类比，认为 SIVE 的上游光源瓶颈会被市场低估。
回想 AMD 还是 3 美元一股的时候： 当时行业共识是，INTC 会把它留着，只是为了所谓的“垄断”目的，所以它不会被颠覆。 结果 AMD 最后涨了 66 倍，现在市值已经 3300 亿美元以上。 我在 $SIVE 身上也看到同样的东西。 你拿 140 亿美元市值的 Furukawa、190 亿的 $MTSI、550 亿的 $LITE 来比，说它们在位置上比 $SIVE 更好。 但市场实际上已经把这些差异充分体现在市值里了。 很多人没看懂的是：你面前有一家 3 亿美元出头的公司，已经被设计进 $MRVL 的被动超大规模云供应链里。 再往下像 Ayar -> $JBL 这样的链条也是一样。 在 3 亿美元市值下，$SIVE 的上行空间巨大，而且风险已经被市场体现得很充分。
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Back when $AMD was $3 a share: The industry consensus was $INTC was keeping them around just for "monopoly" purposes and they wouldn't be disrupted. $AMD went up 66 times and is now a $330B+ MC. Seeing the same thing with $SIVE. You're comparing $14B companies like Furukawa, $19B with $MTSI, $55B with $LITE and saying they have a better position than $SIVE. It's clearly reflected in the marketcap already. What people misunderstand is that you have a $300m company already designed into captive hyperscaler supply chains in $MRVL. Then ones like Ayar -> $JBL... At a $300m MC. Upside on $SIVE is enormous here, and the risk is reflected in the MC.
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分析 $SIVE 在光子学 CPO CW WDM 供应链中的关键地位，估值 $3 亿相对 $LITE 的 $550 亿市值极具不对称优势。
"没有 Win（赢家）就拼不出 Winner（胜利者）。" "因此：我看多 $SIVE 供应链。" "$SIVE -> WIN (TPE:3105) -> Ayar SuperNova -> $JBL -> 超大规模数据中心，作为一个整体流程。" "如果你对比同样处于共封装光学(CPO) CW WDM 领域的 $LITE 等公司。" "原因如下：" "-> $POET / $MRVL Celestial。" "-> Ayar / $JBL 和 O-Net 使用 $SIVE。" "它被设计为超大规模数据中心下一代光子学架构的光源。" "估值约 $3 亿。" "而且我确实认为 WDM DFB 阵列是规模扩展(scale up)的优选架构。且开发难度极高。" "这不是零和博弈的架构之争，如何处理规模扩展(scale out)很可能会与使用单发射器的 $LITE 和 $COHR 分工合作。" "以及像 $MRVL 这样有内部供应链的厂商如何设计他们的架构。" "但如果你比较市值差异（$SIVE 约 $3 亿，$LITE 约 $550 亿）。" "任何人都能看清这个光子学领域 $3.3 亿美元即将到来的颠覆者 $SIVE 价值有多明显。" "尤其是 Win Semi 斥资 $40 亿的晶圆厂承接了来自 $SIVE、$AVGO、$MTSI 等客户的 fabless 激光器规模化生产。" "对于做多这条供应链以及光子学和超大规模数据中心架构发展方向来说，这是高度非对称性的机会。
英文原文
You cant spell Winner without Win. Because of that: I’m bullish on $SIVE supply chain. $SIVE -> WIN (TPE:3105) -> Ayar SuperNova -> $JBL -> Hyperscalers, as one flow. If you compare to $LITE and others that’s also in the same CPO CW WDM space. There’s a reason why: -> $POET / $MRVL Celestial. -> Ayar / $JBL and O-Net use $SIVE. It’s designed in as the light source for the next-gen photonics architecture for hyperscalers. At a ~$300M valuation. And I do think WDM DFB arrays are the superior architecture for scale up. And are incredibly hard to develop. It's not a zero-sum architectural game and will likely be split with how you handle scale out with single emitters like $LITE and $COHR. As well as captive suppliers like $MRVL and how they design their architectures. But if you look at the MC difference (~$300m with $SIVE, $55B with $LITE). Anyone can see how clear how valuable the $330M incoming disruptor in $SIVE is to the photonics space. And especially with the $4B foundry in Win Semi that captures fabless laser production from $SIVE, $AVGO, $MTSI and other players at scale. It’s highly asymmetrical to long both the supply chain as exposure to where photonics and hyperscalers architecture are heading.
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吐槽标题能不能换个好点的。
@jimmyhuli 笑死，就不能换个好点的标题吗，拜托。
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@jimmyhuli 笑死，就不能换个好点的标题吗，拜托
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提到 AXTI 在 Northland 注资后大概 7.5 亿估值。
@MindQuest42 @Jornka329996 对 $AXTI 来说，在 Northland 砸了 1 亿美元、而我的 thesis 落地之后，它大概就到了 7.5 亿美元左右。
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@MindQuest42 @Jornka329996 For $AXTI it was around $750m after Northland put in $100m after my thesis.
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说 SIVE 之前没人知道，且没过很多美国 PE 机构门槛。
@Jornka329996 以前根本没人知道它。 而且 $SIVE 当时也没达到很多美国私募股权机构要求的市值 / 成交量 / 上市门槛。
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@Jornka329996 Nobody knew about it. And $SIVE didn’t pass the MC/volume/listing threshold for a lot of US p/e firms
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纠正对规格的误读，强调不同光子架构的差异。
规格判断是对的，但结论错了。 65mw 是单通道功率，不是总功率，所以当你有 16 个阵列通道时，总功率就超过 1000mw 了。 Ayar / Sive 做的是 WDM，本质上是用多波长阵列，而不是像 $LITE 那样用一个高功率方案。$POET 也是为不同架构设计的，不是单发射器激光器那种。 本质上就是不同架构，所以中游超大规模云供应商才会用 Sivers。
英文原文
Correct on specs. Conclusion is wrong. 65mw is per channel not aggregate, so when you get 16 array channel it’s over 1000 mw. Ayar/Sive does WDM, basically using multi wavelength arrays rather than one high power one like lite. Same with poet designed for instead of single emitter lasers. Just different architectures hence why midstream hyperscaler suppliers use sivers.
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看好 Win Semi，认为它未来两年可能像 TSEM 一样被重估。
@norriswalker Claude 说得对，Win 确实很能打。 我觉得 Win 在接下来两年里可能像 $TSEM 一样，被市场狠狠重估。
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@norriswalker Claude is right, Win does slap. I think Win can pull a $TSEM and get re-rated rlly hard over next two years
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说自己用 IBKR 交易 SIVE 和 Win 等公司。
@buht 我用 $IBKR 来交易像 $SIVE 或 WIN 这样的公司。
英文原文
@buht $IBKR for companies I mention like $SIVE or WIN
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说自己对动漫和半导体代工的口味很像。
@zephyr_z9 很高兴我们在动漫和半导体代工方面的口味很像。 这两样确实挺搭的。
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@zephyr_z9 I’m glad we share similar tastes in Anime and semi foundries. Then two go hand in hand
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认为 Win Semi 会像 TSEM 一样慢慢复利，并受益于 TAM 和光模块收入加速。
@Ren_aramb 其实也不用太急。我预计 Win Semi 会像 $TSEM 那样，成为一个慢慢复利的成长公司，既受 TAM 扩张也受光学收入加速推动。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb There’s probably no rush. I expect Win Semi to be a slower compound growth company like $TSEM that benefits from both TAM expansion and revenue acceleration from optical.
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看多稳懋3105：位于LEO卫星/光学/人形机器人三大高增长领域垄断瓶颈点，战略价值被市场低估。
我在稳懋（Win Semi）(3105.TWO) 4.1B市值时做多。我认为市场忽略了这家全球最重要的晶圆厂之一（在台积电$TSM之外）。我认为他们的战略定位远超40亿美元市值。他们几乎位于所有主要瓶颈点：-> SpaceX Starlink 低轨卫星供应链。-> 作为$AVGO、$LITE、$MTSI、$SIVE的磷化铟(InP)光学收发器晶圆厂。-> 作为人形机器人的身体/眼睛，是用于飞行时间(TOF)激光器的砷化镓(GaAs)晶圆厂，可能用于Boston Dynamic Atlas。-> 来自之前与联发科(MediaTek)/高通(Qualcomm)/$AAPL的业务遗留。但稳懋似乎受到legacy业务的拖累（如$SOI），光学是其最大增长向量之一。然后...稳懋拥有几乎任何晶圆厂中最大的TAM扩张/收入加速：随着：LEO、人形机器人/连续波(CW)激光、800g、1.6t、3.2t光学收发器在未来几年大幅增长。特别是博通(Broadcom)作为其锚定客户（$AVGO持有约5%的稳懋股份）。$NVDA不在乎谁制造激光器，无论是$LITE还是$COHR。他们只在乎是否有足够的供应。供应不够。-> CW激光需求可能呈抛物线增长。（他们制造像$SIVE设计的激光器）-> LEO卫星需求（SpaceX Starlink）可能呈抛物线增长。-> 人形机器人需求可能呈抛物线增长。因为稳懋位于三个最前沿和增长最快行业的半垄断瓶颈点：光子学/AI、机器人/人形机器人和太空。特别是光学TAM爆发：稳懋2027年远期收益大约在35倍范围，我认为这是保守估计，远期估值最终会非常便宜。稳懋将大大受益于TAM扩张和加速的收入增长。当然：稳懋会赢。所以我做多稳懋。
英文原文
I am long Win Semi (3105.TWO) at $4.1B MC. I believe markets are sleeping on of the most important foundries in the world (aside from $TSM). IMO their strategic positioning exceeds far beyond $4B MC. They sit in almost every major chokepoints: -> In the SpaceX Starlink LEO supply chain. -> As $AVGO, $LITE, $MTSI, $SIVE InP foundries for optical transceivers -> then as the body/eyes of humanoids as the GaAs foundry for TOF lasers possibly mapping to Boston Dynamic Atlas -> With legacy from MediaTek / Qualcomm / $AAPL from their previous business. But Win appears to be bottom of the legacy drag (like with $SOI), with optical as one of their largest growth vectors. Then... Win has the largest TAM expansion/revenue acceleration out of almost any foundry: With: LEO, humanoids / CW laser, 800g, 1.6t, 3.2t optical transceiver massive ramp up over the next few years. Especially with Broadcom as their anchor client ( $AVGO owns ~5% of Win). $NVDA doesn't care who makes the lasers, whether it's $LITE or $COHR. They just care if there's enough. There's not enough. -> Demand for CW lasers will likely go parabolic. (they make the lasers that companies like $SIVE designs) -> Demand for LEO satellites (SpaceX Starlink) will likely go parabolic. -> Demand for humanoids will likely go parabolic. As, Win Semi sits as a semi-monopoly chokepoint in the three most frontier and fastest growing industries for photonics/AI, robotics/humanoids, and space. Especially with Optical TAM explosion: Win fwd earnings for 2027 roughly in ~35x range, I do think this is sandbagging it and forward multiples will end up dirt cheap. Win will largely benefit from TAM expansion and accelerated revenue growth. Of course: Win will win. So I am long Win.
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感谢别人支持的评论。
@cronked 我很感谢这些支持性的评论。
英文原文
@cronked I appreciate the supportive comments more https://t.co/Xg8e2RFGW6
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说发了 SIVE 帖子后马上就有人问是否卖了。
@veggiepoultry @KaneCapz 我今天才刚发了关于 $SIVE 的帖子，结果已经有人来问我：‘你卖了吗？’ 每一篇我发的帖子下面都这样。
英文原文
@veggiepoultry @KaneCapz I literally posted about $SIVE today and I’m already getting questions: “did you sell?” Underneath every one of my posts