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说 -84% 既可能再涨 525%，但风险管理出了问题。
@Mr_Derivatives 这事看起来是做得到的，但也很难……如果他们能在 3 个月内跌掉 84%，那也能在 3 个月内涨 525%。 不过是的，我也不太确定那里到底是怎么在风险管理上搞砸的……
英文原文
@Mr_Derivatives Seems doable but hard... If they can drop -84% in 3 months, they can also go up 525% in 3 months. But yeah, not quite sure what went wrong there with risk management...
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强调公司不必增长太多，货币贬值和低流通股也能推高市值。
公司不需要增长那么多，美元只要贬值，百分比就会自己滚上去。 尤其是在政权更迭、目标是把国家债务通过通胀慢慢化掉的时候。 很多公司本身流通盘就很小（比如和 SoftBank 相关的公司，或者 SpaceX 相关标的），这也会把市值往上抬一点。 所以资金流入，并不等于市值就一定成比例扩张。
英文原文
Companies don't need to grow that much, dollar just needs to be devalued and % just compound. Esp. if there's an administration change and their goal is inflating away national debt. Lot of these companies trade off low float too (eg. Softbank related companies or with SpaceX and this just inflates MC a bit). So capital inflows doesn't really equate to MC expansion.
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仍然极度看多光子学，只是对存储略偏多，并把 doomsday portfolio 当对冲。
也不是完全这样，我对光子学还是超级看多，只是现在对存储只算略微看多。 我确实把一些标的的仓位砍掉了一点，好把杠杆降下来。 如果未来几年光子学已经卖断货，那么超大规模云厂商哪怕削减 CapEx，它依然还是卖断货，因为它在 BOM 里的占比本来就很低。 但存储在 BOM 里占比就大得多。 末日组合就是一种对冲。
英文原文
Not exactly, still mega bullish on photonics, only slightly bullish on memory now. I did cut some concentration in some names to go off margin. If you’re sold out for next few years for photonics, hyperscalers possibly cutting capex still makes it sold out since it’s still a low part of BOM. Memory is a huge amount of BOM though. Doomsday portfolio is a hedge.
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说无论什么市场都该想办法赚钱，包括伊朗炸邻国油田这种情形。
@swisssong 你应该在任何市场里都想着怎么赚钱。 这也包括伊朗把周边国家的油田都炸掉的情形。
英文原文
@swisssong You should be looking to make money in any market. That includes Iran blowing up all the neighbor oil fields
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认为 NVDA 在流动性和能源危机中仍可能大幅下跌。
@Jornka329996 @thgstar2 英伟达现在还是 4.1 万亿美元市值，而且正处在严重的流动性紧缩和能源危机里；如果伊朗把周围的一切都炸掉，它还可能跌得远得多。 我仍然觉得美国在找退路 / TACO，但以色列似乎想把事情继续推下去。
英文原文
@Jornka329996 @thgstar2 Nvidia is still $4.1T, in a massive liquidity crunch and energy crisis, it can fall a lot, lot further if Iran blows everything around it up. Still think US is looking for an off ramp/TACO but Israel is looking to keep things going.
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认为市场主要靠 TACO 预期撑着，自己会用图里的组合做对冲。
@thgstar2 大概就是伊朗继续把周围的一切都炸掉，然后能源危机失控。 现在之所以还能撑住，主要是因为还在期待一个 TACO。 上面那组仓位就是我会怎么对冲。
英文原文
@thgstar2 Probably Iran continuing to blow everything around it up and the energy crisis cascading out of hand. Main reason things have been holding on is a potential taco. Portfolio above is how I’d hedge.
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提出地缘冲突极端情景下的末日ETF配置组合及各自逻辑。
Serenity末日ETF： 25% | $FAZ 25% | $GUSH 20% | $LCID 做空 10% | $SQQQ 10% | $UVIX 10% | $NVDA 看跌期权 逻辑： $FAZ / 3倍做空金融股 - 私人市场流动性(Private Market liquidity)押注，中东资本如果所有油田被炸毁将撤离私人市场。 $GUSH / 2倍做多美国油气 - 全球原油价格可能飙升，美国生产商赚取创纪录利润。 $SQQQ / 3倍做空纳斯达克 - 谷歌、亚马逊、苹果、微软被迫抛售，如果流动性被抽走的话。 $LCID 做空 / 沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金(Public Investment Fund)持有60%股份。如果沙特遭受流动性冲击(Private Market liquidity shock)，Lucid也就完了。 $UVIX / 2倍做多波动率 - 如果发生黑天鹅事件，波动率就会上升。 $NVDA 看跌期权 - 作为$SPY最大权重股最后的防线。如果资本支出被削减，指数下跌时英伟达会跌得最惨。 只有在美国向伊朗派遣地面部队且伊朗炸毁周边一切的情况下，我才会看到这种情景。 让我们祈祷发生的是塔可星期二吧。
英文原文
The Serenity Doomsday ETF: 25% | $FAZ 25% | $GUSH 20%| $LCID Short 10% | $SQQQ 10% $UVIX 10% | $NVDA Puts Rationale: $FAZ / 3x short financial - Private Market liquidity play on Middle Eastern capital abandoning private markets if all their oil fields get blown apart. $GUSH / 2x Long US OIl and Gas - Global crude prices that will likely skyrocket, and American producers reap record windfall in profits. $SQQQ / 3x short Nasdaq - Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft forced selling if liquidity gets pulled. $LCID Short / 60% owned by Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund. If the Saudis suffer from liquidity shock, there goes Lucid. $UVIX/ 2x long volatility - If there's black swan events, volatility goes up. $NVDA Puts - Last bastion for the $SPY as largest weighting. If capex gets pulled, index sells off will Nvidia go down the hardest. I only see this scenario if US sends ground troops to Iran and Iran blows everything around it up. Let's pray for Taco Tuesday.
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引用特朗普 1988 年对伊朗的强硬表述，担心市场在计价他不会 TACO。
这是特朗普 1988 年接受采访时谈伊朗的话： “我会在 Kharg 岛上狠狠干一票。我会进去把它拿下来。” 我基本确定，从 $MSFT 到 $META 的市场都在计价特朗普这次不会 TACO 的风险。 真心希望全球经济能赢过“交易的艺术”。 https://t.co/ajYJXLRGfq
英文原文
This was Trump back in 1988 in an interview about Iran: “I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it.” I’m pretty sure markets from $MSFT to $META are pricing in the risks of Trump not TACOing now. Really hope global economy > “Art of the Deal” here. https://t.co/ajYJXLRGfq
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说最好不要公开净资产，免得在街上被抢。
@marshmallowo1_1 对，最好不要公开净资产，这样他们就不会在街上把你抢了。
英文原文
@marshmallowo1_1 Yep, it’s better to not disclosed net worth so they don’t get mugged on the street
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说自己减了一些集中度，但总体仍然看多，并在 $125 又买了 RDDT。
@ram_blings 我这里也有在这那减一点集中度，但整体还是多头。比如 $RDDT，我就在 $125 又买了一些。 https://t.co/u8x8jgEebD
英文原文
@ram_blings I've trimmed concentrations here and there, but remain long overall. This is $RDDT for example, but I did buy more at $125. https://t.co/u8x8jgEebD
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强调核心是 thesis 和结果，不是仓位美元金额或权威背书。
我不会公开 $RDDT 到 $CRCL 的仓位美元金额，因为那根本不重要。 真正重要的是核心论点 / 想法： 市场里的百分比结果会验证它们，而不是一个组合有多大、美元金额涨了多少（比如 1000 万美元里的 0.01%）。 我之前也对那些在 X 上被嘲笑只有 5000 美元或 25000 美元组合的小创作者说过同样的话。 他们的想法也应该被认真听，而不是看他们有多少钱。 这和我在发布 thesis 时，不会拿自己在 RISC-V 或 AI 实验室发论文的背景来背书是一个道理： 判断依据应该是核心想法。 不是权威。 那些没完没了的噪音最后也把我自己搞得有点受不了，所以我在发 $SIVE 的持仓数字时还是妥协了一次。 实质内容才是关键，我想这也正是我最近账号能涨这么多关注的主要原因。 我也鼓励别人把重心放在这一点上。
英文原文
I don’t post USD values of positions from $RDDT to $CRCL since they’re irrelevant. What matters are the core thesis/ideas: The % outcome in the market validates them, not the size of a portfolio and USD values going up a lot (like .01% of $10M). I’ve said this before as well to any small X content creator who gets made fun of because of a $5K port or $25K port. They should be listened to as well for their ideas, not how much money they have. It’s the same reason I don’t cite my background in RISC-V to publishing papers in AI Labs when I post a thesis: They’re based on the core idea. Not authority. All the endless noise ended up getting to my head so I gave in once posting $SIVE figures. Substance is what matters and I think that’s largely why my account got such a huge following recently. And I encourage others to focus on that as well.
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承认自己对特朗普在伊朗问题上判断偏保守。
@ehaibag 是啊，我对特朗普在伊朗问题上的判断有点低估了。
英文原文
@ehaibag Yeah, I underestimated Trump a bit on Iran
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认为能源冲击带来货币贬值和交易扰动，伊朗局势让自己做空 XLU。
这是原油 / 能源飙升后引发的货币贬值，把交易结构搞乱了。 伊朗战争也把我做多 $XLU 的仓位搞乱了，因为现在市场已经不再计价降息了。 伊朗带来的不确定性太大了。说实话，如果特朗普停止升级，你会看到 $EWY 出现巨大反转，但你不会在海力士上看到同样的变化。 但现在到底政府会怎么做，已经是抛硬币了。
英文原文
It’s currency devaluation after crude/energy spikes messing up the trade. The War in Iran also messed up my $XLU long since there’s no rate cuts being priced in anymore. Again too much uncertainty with Iran. Idk, you get a massive reversal with $EWY that you don’t with SK Hynix if Trump stops escalations. But at this point it’s a coin flip on what the administration does.
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觉得市场正经历类似全球关税冲击，资金在计价流动性和能源风险。
@HimarsoClock 我们已经到了 4 月那种全球关税冲击的阶段，而且 $MSFT 已经到 350 美元了…… 市场大概正在计价流动性冲击和能源中断。不过就像去年 4 月看到的那样， 一切都可能因为一个 TACO 而改变。
英文原文
@HimarsoClock We’ve reached April global tariff shock with $MSFT already at $350… Markets are probably pricing in liquidity shock and energy disruption. But again as seen with April last year Everything can chance with a Taco.
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认为在伊朗和特朗普不确定性下不该加杠杆，因为很多小票已有很低估值或卡住关键瓶颈。
@AdityaInvests90 不，我觉得伊朗冲突和特朗普这边的不确定性太大了；我宁愿不要在下跌路上加杠杆，以防它继续往下掉。 很多标的已经估值很低，或者虽然体量很小，但卡着关键瓶颈。 所以它们能跌的空间也很有限。
英文原文
@AdityaInvests90 No, Iran conflict and Trump have too much uncertainty, and I’d rather not leverage on the way down just in case it keeps dropping. Many names are at depressed valuations or hold critical chokepoints despite being so small. So there’s only so much they can drop.
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说自己喜欢前面提到的所有名字，Win Semi 和 ARM 是最新加入的。
@RiskAdjustedMe 说实话，我喜欢我提到过的所有名字。Win Semi 和 $ARM 是其中最新加进来的。
英文原文
@RiskAdjustedMe Tbh I like all of the names I’ve mentioned. Win Semi and $ARM were the newest ones out of the bunch.
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认为 SOI 估值便宜且在衬底层有垄断地位，重估会慢慢发生。
@Ud197601 @AdityaInvests90 $SOI 的市净率大概只有 1.3 倍，所以估值已经很低了。 我觉得它会缓慢重估向上，但它在衬底层确实拥有相当明显的垄断地位。 当然，像 $TSEM 那种一周涨 70% 的走势还是把我吓了一跳。
英文原文
@Ud197601 @AdityaInvests90 $SOI trades close to 1.3x book value. So it’s already at depressed valuations. I think it’s a slow re-rating up but it holds a material monopoly on the substrate level. Of course like $TSEM that 70% 1 week rally caught me off guard.
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提醒别人忽略了股市已经在跌，如果指数是红的这些名字会更高。
@hero688 大家都忘了，哪怕指数已经在跌，这些名字还是这样。 如果指数是红的，这些票会高得多。 https://t.co/lsV1cgfBfs
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@hero688 People are forgetting that this is despite indexes crashing already. If they were green, these names would be a lot higher. https://t.co/lsV1cgfBfs
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说自己通常会用约 1.4x 杠杆，现在因伊朗冲突已降到 0，但仍整体看多。
@AdityaInvests90 我通常会维持大约 1.4 倍杠杆。（只有在比如 $NBIS $70 那种仓位，或者年初税损收割的仓位上，才会把组合再加杠杆）。 现在因为伊朗冲突，我已经把杠杆降到 0 了，但整体上我还是看多。
英文原文
@AdityaInvests90 I typically sit on ~1.4x. (Only portfolio margined past 2 into stuff like $NBIS at $70 or tax harvested stuff at the beginning of the year). Now winded down to 0 due to Iran conflict but still long in general.
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阐述AI基础设施供应链中不可替代公司的投资逻辑和超额收益来源
我的投资组合也因宏观因素出现回撤。年初至今收益现在是527%。在指数下跌7%之后。 - $AAOI“崩盘”从$30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE“崩盘”从$330 -> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI“崩盘”从$15 -> $70 -> $60… 我不会低估伊朗战争的影响。这会对流动性和能源产生严重影响，所以我已经降低了杠杆。但如果一家公司季度收入将从$1.34亿增长到预计每季度$15.4亿，这来自美国制造的光收发器(mount optical transceiver)产能爬坡…… 或者如果一家市值$36亿的小公司拥有超大规模云商光子学建设的材料供应链…… 或者一家市值$2.9亿的小型激光供应商$SIVE为$MRVL的共封装光学(CPO)项目或Jabil光收发器提供配套…… 或者像$LITE这样的光学巨头其EML产能已售罄到2028年…… 或者$SOI这家欧洲小公司提供硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)所需的所有衬底。 或者$IQE这家欧洲小公司拥有超出其估值数倍的隐性反应釜产能…… 或者像SK海力士这样的内存公司预计三年内创造的利润将超过其当前市值…… 在市场认识到它们对供应链的重要性过程中，股价上涨途中会有大量波动。但如果你无法绕过它们来规模化AI，或者它们已被纳入$AMZN或$MSFT的供应链中…… 也许它们会跑赢市场？
英文原文
My portfolio has drawdowns from Macro as well. YTD is now 527%. After the index crashed -7%. - $AAOI “crashed” from $30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE “crashed” from $330-> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI “crashed” from $15 -> $70 -> $60… I’m not underestimating the War in Iran. This has serious consequences to liquidity/energy, so I’ve winded down margin. But if a company is going from $134m quarterly revenue to projected $1.54B a quarter from Made in America optical transceiver ramps... or if the tiny $3.6B company owns the materials supply chain for the hyperscaler photonics buildout... or a tiny laser supplier at $290m in $SIVE feeds to $MRVL CPO programs or Jabil transcivers... or a optical giant like $LITE is sold out of EML capacity until 2028... or a small European company in $SOI provides all the substrates required for silicon photonics / CPO. or a small European company in $IQE has latent reactor capacity multiple times what their valued at… or a memory company like SK Hynix is projected to make more than what their current market cap is in 3 years… There’s going to be tons of volatility on the way up, as markets realize their importance to supply chains But if you can’t bypass them to scale AI. Or they’re designed into the supply chains of $AMZN or $MSFT. Maybe they tend to outperform the market?
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认为 IREN 的 60 亿 ATM 和 VCX 的 NAV 错配都会给股价造成结构性压力。
$IREN 现在有 60 亿美元的新卖压。这种 ATM 会在任何反弹里都形成结构性压制。 如果市值只有 110 亿美元，而他们却在公开市场上卖出最高 60 亿美元的新股对着你砸。 我不会在 ATM 结束、现有持有人完成稀释之前做多。 $VCX 也是一样，如果你是在 SpaceX 估值 3400 亿美元、但自己却在 2000% NAV 上交易的地方玩，最后数学迟早会对你不利。
英文原文
With $IREN, you have $6B in newly minted selling pressure. This ATM is structural overhang in any rally. If the marketcap is $11 Billion and they're selling up to $6,000,000,000 worth of new shares against you in the open market. I would not go long until the ATM is finished and existing holders get diluted. Same with $VCX, if you're trading at 2000% NAV of SpaceX (valued at $34 Trillion), eventually the math will work against you.
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认为不是所有卡点都适合买入，AAOI 的收入弹性更强。
是的，从技术角度这样理解很棒。 一只股票是不是好长仓，维度非常多。 我之前也看过 $HIMX，如果它真能转化成实质收入，我也许会做多，但最后没有下场。 对 $AAOI 我则非常有信心，因为它的收入预测会在一个巨大的光模块 TAM 里上升。 我不同意很多选票，最后走的是另一条路。不是所有不那么出名的瓶颈点都适合做长仓。
英文原文
Yes that's a great way to approach it from the tech angle. Whether something is a great long, is extremely multifaceted. I was also looking at $HIMX if it translated into material revenue as well and decided not to take a long position. $AAOI I have high conviction on given revenue projections ramp in a massive TAM for optical transceivers. Disagree with many picks and went the other way. Not all lesser known chokepoints make great longs.
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惊讶 SIVE 作为 POET 的激光供应商估值只有当时的 1/9。
@FrostByte123456 我不是说我不喜欢 $POET。 我只是很惊讶，你当时把 $POET 的激光供应商 $SIVE 估值，放在了 1/9 的位置。
英文原文
@FrostByte123456 Not saying I don't like $POET. I'm just very surprised you have the laser supplier to $POET in $SIVE at 1/9th the valuation at the time.
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把 HIMX 的下跌当作瓶颈点教训，认为部分光子/光模块标的的 TAM 逻辑更强。
关于 $HIMX 以及它现在已经跌了 31.54%（还被宏观进一步加速）这个点，非常值得肯定。 这对理解瓶颈点是个很好的教训。 他们在这个“meme stock”上忽略了两件事： - 瓶颈点可以被设计绕开。 - 这个瓶颈点也许并不足以真正转化为收入，就像 $AXTI 那样。 而 $AAOI 这边，如果你看的是光模块出货预测，它的 TAM 增量其实非常大，只是他们之前一直偏空。 我也大体上不同意很多光子学标的的判断（比如说 $POET 的估值应该是 $SIVE 激光供应商的 7 倍）。 或者在没有看清楚可选性 + 巨大 TAM 下收入上行的情况下，对 $AAOI 持空。 不过一年后谁对谁错，我们到时候再看。最近整体下跌大多是被宏观加速的，不是说 $SIVE 或 $HIMX 的 thesis 错了。 但确实很有意思，芯片设计公司和分析师们在这些想法上的方向开始走相反路。
英文原文
Great callout on $HIMX and now down -31.54% (accelerated by macro). This is a good lesson around chokepoints. They missed two things on this "Meme Stock": - Chokepoints can be designed out. - Chokepoint may not be material enough to translate into revenue like $AXTI. $AAOI on the other hand, has material TAM increase if you look at optical transciever projections that they've been bearish on. Largely disagreed with a large number of photonics picks (eg. calling for $POET at 7x the valuation over $SIVE the laser supplier). Or being bearish on $AAOI without looking at optionality + revenue ramp in a massive TAM. But we'll see who's right or wrong in a years time, most of the recent drop across the board was accelerated by macro (not whether a $SIVE or $HIMX thesis was wrong). But very interesting to see chip designers go the other way of plays mentioned by analysts.
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提醒用 NAV 失配和 IREN 的 ATM 去看 VCX 的暴跌逻辑。
$VCX 又跌了 40%。 两天累计跌幅达到 -62.35%。 这很好地提醒我们，有时候真该看看数学…… 尤其是这些名字背后的东西（NAV 错配），再加上像 $IREN 这种 60 亿美元 ATM 申报。 https://t.co/dj1iKO8YLP
英文原文
$VCX is down another 40%. Totaling -62.35% drop in two days. Good reminder that sometimes it’s good to look at the math…. Behind these names (NAV mismatch), especially with others like $IREN and $6B ATM filings. https://t.co/dj1iKO8YLP
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认为伊朗局势已经很危险，但自己仍持仓，因为特朗普可能随时 TACO。
@pepemoonboy 是啊，伊朗这局势已经越来越危险了。 我个人还是继续持仓，因为特朗普随时都可能 TACO……但谁知道最后会怎样。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Yeah this situation is getting pretty dangerous with Iran. I’m personally staying invested because Trump can always TACO… but who knows what will happen.
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说自己在做金融科技业务，研究市场只是为了兴趣和验证 thesis。
@SalmanJ99750827 我现在自己在做一个 fintech，所以个人其实挺忙的。 我做这些更多只是当作业余爱好。 市场就像下棋：你对一个 thesis 有信念，然后看它最后会不会兑现，这个过程本身就挺有意思的。
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@SalmanJ99750827 I run my own fintech right now, so quite busy personally. I'm just doing this for fun on the side. Markets are like playing chess, you have conviction in a thesis. Then it's fun to see it play out or not.
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说有一家基金做空整个流通盘 2%，反而让自己买了更多 SIVE。
@Ren_aramb 有家随机的基金把整个流通盘做空了 2%，所以最近的下跌大概就是因此来的。 结果我好像反而又买了更多 $SIVE。 Qube 大概就是算法交易吧，我觉得他们还没意识到这后面会映射到超大规模云厂商的供应链。 https://t.co/voSxCSQWE1
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@Ren_aramb There's some random firm that shorted 2% of the entire float, hence the recent drop. Ended up just acquiring more of $SIVE as a company off of it I guess. Qube probably algorithmic, don't think they realized upcoming supply chain mapping to hyperscalers yet. https://t.co/voSxCSQWE1
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说 SIVE 市值便宜到自己都想直接收购公司。
@Jornka329996 它当时市值便宜得离谱……我都意识到自己干脆可以把公司直接收了，哈哈。
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@Jornka329996 It got so cheap marketcap wise... that I realized I could just acquire the company lol.
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认为 SIVE 在中游超大规模云供应链上执行正常，且自己愿意加入一些需要帮助的董事会。
@miraclemaster07 $SIVE 目前在中游超大规模云厂供应商这条线上执行得挺好。 只是大家还不知道这个名字。 我也愿意去加入 $IQE、$SNAP、$PYPL 的董事会，因为那些公司真的很需要帮助，但它们到底该做什么其实已经很明显了。
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@miraclemaster07 $SIVE is executing fine right now with all the midstream hyperscaler suppliers. People just don't know about the name yet. Happy to join $IQE, $SNAP, $PYPL boards because those really need help but it's painfully obvious what they need to do.