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SOI 是硅光基板垄断
对，像这种就是最好的例子。$SOI 是硅光所需基板的垄断者。 法国监管机构已经注意到了。但欧洲很多国家都在配合把技术转移给中共。 唯一能阻止这件事的，就是足够的美国持股或者足够的公众认知。
英文原文
Yes stuff like this is the perfect example. $SOI is a monopoly over substrates needed for silicon photonics. French regulators caught on. But there's so many European nations that are complicit in technology transfer to the CCP. Only thing to prevent this is enough American ownership or awareness.
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欧盟小盘股是防卡点外溢
我有理由重点关注欧盟小盘股。 这是我还没公开讲过的投资 thesis。 我也希望大家愿意花时间读一下： 从 $ALRIB（量子 / MBE）、$LPK（玻璃基板）、$SIVE（DFB 激光），或者像 Nippon Chemical 这样的亚洲公司都包括在内。 这是为了防止敌对势力接管或破坏美国所需的关键卡点。 欧洲的 FiconTEC（虽然是私营公司）就是一个例子，被和中国中共有关联的公司收购了。 我甚至不确定这在法律上怎么会被允许，德国应该 100% 把它从中国手里收回来。 它们几乎垄断了 AI 和 LIDAR 所需的 CPO / SiPH 测试环节。客户里包括 $NVDA、$TSM、$AVGO 和 $INTC 这类最关键的 AI 和半导体公司。 随着时间推移，这种收购之后，大量知识产权和技术 IP 流向中国的可能性很高，而且他们会对美国供应链拥有更多控制。 如果有足够的美国持股和足够的关注，我们的处境会比现在好得多，也不会有隐藏的中共持股 / 接管问题。 否则，我们在美国供应链上就会有更多后门，就像 $AXTI 和 InP 基板那样（如果我们现在没有建立独立产能的话）。 欧盟允许上游供应链卡点（比如专门测试或基板制造）被地缘政治对手买走，或者把 IP 转移过去。 而美国可能还没有意识到这些脆弱性。 这已经是我作为散户能尽到的最大努力了。 未来政策制定者会注意到这些，并在这些草根（散户）自下而上的推动中，阻止这种事情发生。
英文原文
There's a reason I spotlight EU small caps. This my investment thesis that I haven't publicly stated yet. And I hope people spend the time to read: From $ALRIB (quantum/MBE), $LPK (glass substrate), or $SIVE (DFB Lasers). Or even Asian names like Nippon Chemical. It's to prevent hostile actors from taking over or disrupting critical chokepoints required by America. FiconTEC (Europe) as one example (though private) was acquired by Chinese CCP affiliated companies. Not even sure how this was legal and Germany should 100% seize it back from China. They were a quasi-monopoly over testing for CPO/SiPH needed for AI and LIDAR. It's clients include the most critical players in AI and semiconductors, such as $NVDA, $TSM, $AVGO, and $INTC. Over time, significant intellectual property and technological IP transfer to China is highly likely after these acquisitions and they'll have more control over US supply chains. With enough American ownership enough spotlight on these companies: we would be in a worse shape with hidden CCP ownership/takeovers. Or we would have more backdoors on American supply chains like with $AXTI and InP substrates (if we weren't building up independent capacity now). The EU has allowed upstream supply chain chokepoints (like specialized testing or substrate manufacturing) to be bought out or have their IP transferred by geopolitical rivals. While America still not might realize a lot of these vulnerabilities. This is the most I can do as a retail investor to prevent this from happening. Eventually policymakers will pay attention and prevent this from happening if all the movement happens from grassroots (retail) and bottom up.
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美国第一也包括海外供应链
我一直专注于让美国 #1。我确信国外不少人会因此不高兴。 这也包括加速台湾、欧洲和日本的供应链增长（这也是我整体的投资 thesis）。 以确保超大规模云厂商能拿到它们需要的材料，继续起飞。
英文原文
I’m always focused on making America #1. Im sure quite a few people outside the country might get upset though. Part of that includes accelerating supply chain growth overseas too in Taiwan, Europe, and Japan too (my overall investment thesis). To make sure hyperscalers get the materials they need to go brrrr.
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INTC 需要产业主权
@Adnan_M01 我现在看好 $INTC，而且这也是我工作的第一家公司。 美国需要在先进半导体供应链上确保主权。 其中一部分就是在盈利前先补贴 capex。
英文原文
@Adnan_M01 I’m a fan of $INTC now and that was the very first company I worked at. America needs to secure sovereignty over its advanced semiconductor supply chains. Part of that is subsidizing the capex until profitability.
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投资国安供应链是正和的
只是个洗澡时想到的点……投资美国国家安全和供应链，比如 $AMSC 或 $NVTS，真的非常爱国，而且是正和的。 很长时间里，对冲基金都在做空美国本土行业，比如能源和太阳能，直到这些行业被打到破产边缘…… 他们是在和中国的国家补贴下注。 多年之后，结果就是：相比中国，我们能用于 AI 的多余能源产能很少。 通过和白宫以及 $NVDA 一起，支持美国新兴公司的供应链安全…… 股票起飞？美国公司起飞？美国起飞？ （披露：我是美国人，而且非常偏向美国）
英文原文
Just a shower thought... it’s extremely patriotic and positive sum to be investing in American National Security and supply chains like $AMSC or $NVTS. For the longest time hedge funds shorted domestic American sectors like energy + Solar to the point of bankruptcy... By betting with China on their state subsidies. and many years later, as a result: we have little excess energy capacity needed for AI compared to China. By investing alongside the White House and $NVDA to securing US supply chains with up and coming American companies… Stocka goes brrr? US companies go brrr? And America goes brrr? (Disclosure: I’m American, and heavily biased toward US)
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ARM 一天涨 12%
兄弟，这才刚过一天和 $ARM。 一家 2000 亿美元以上的公司怎么会涨 12% https://t.co/4BNSjjk88c
英文原文
Bruh it’s only been one day with $ARM. How does a $200B+ company go up 12% https://t.co/4BNSjjk88c
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AMSC 更像美国导向受益股
@auer_trist24737 我更喜欢 $AMSC，因为它名字就叫 “American Superconductor Corp” 而且特朗普 + DOE 更有可能给名字里带 America 的公司发资金，老实说……
英文原文
@auer_trist24737 I liked it $AMSC more for exposure because it's called "American Superconductor Corp" And Trump + DoE are more likely going to give funding to the names with America in its name tbh...
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同意 PhotonCap
@PhotonCap yes
英文原文
@PhotonCap yes
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评论美国产业政策倾向：资助非中国企业赴美建厂，实质是排除中国的供应链战略。
这就像给韩国锌业拨款在美国建精炼厂，或者给台积电($TSM)拨款在美国建晶圆厂一样。$HPS.A是北美最大的干式变压器(dry transformers)和开关设备(switchgear)供应商，他们在美国也有关键的生产设施，比如威斯康辛和加利福尼亚。我认为这基本上就是"什么都行，就是不要中国"。
英文原文
It's like giving grants to Korea Zinc to build refineries in the US or $TSM to build foundries in the US. $HPS.A is largest dry transformers -> switchgear in north america, and they have critical production facilities in US too like Wisconsin/California. I think it's basically "Anything but China"
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不能覆盖所有名字
@afasano23 不，我没有。我只是把自己做的一些研究发出来，希望能帮到别人。$VSH 其实是个好名字。 名字太多了……没法把每一个都覆盖到。
英文原文
@afasano23 No I don't. I'm just publishing some of the research I did in case it helps others. $VSH was a good one though. There's too many names... can't get exposure to everything.
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HPS.A 是国安慢牛
@mi20483980476 对，我喜欢 $HPS.A，而且之前还专门写过一篇关于变压器的 thesis 帖。 到现在涨了 49.4%？ 这些名字比纯 AI 标的慢很多……但对国家安全很关键。
英文原文
@mi20483980476 Yes I like $HPS.A and did an individual thesis post on them awhile back for transformers. It's up 49.4% so far? These names are slower compounders compared to pure play AI ones... But critical to national security.
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DPA 受益者清单
是的。总统在两天前援引了“国防生产法”。 这是为了扩张本土基础设施。 隐含受益者包括： 输电和先进导体： $AMSC - HTS 线材（先进导体）、电力电子 $PLPC - 先进导体 $ATKR - 输电组件 $VMI - 电网组件 电力电子 $AEIS - 电力控制电子 $VICR - 电力传输 电容组 $VSH - 电力电容和电容组 变电站和高压断路器 $POWL - 变电站 / 开关设备 $AZZ - 变电站 变压器 $HPS.A - 我最喜欢的变压器标的 $SPXC - 电力变压器 电工核心钢 $CLF - 美国唯一的电工钢生产商？ 这里面包括： - 变压器 - 输电组件 - 先进导体 - 电力电子 - 变电站 - 高压断路器 - 保护继电器、电容组 - 电工核心钢 TLDR：这项行政行动宣布了关于电网基础设施本土供应链的国家能源紧急状态。它授权联邦资金、采购承诺和加速措施，以迅速扩产。 受益者很多，我把 $AMSC、$CLF、$PLPC、还有 $HPS.A 组成了一个迷你 ETF；其他的我没持有。 我猜接下来 3 到 6 个月会有一堆 DOE 合同，比如“DoE 奖励 ___ 给 $POWL”之类的。
英文原文
Yes. The President invoked the "Defense Production Act" 2 days ago. To expand on domestic infra. Implicit beneficiaries were: Transmission & Advanced Conductors: $AMSC - HTS Wires (advanced conductors), power electronics $PLPC - advanced conductors $ATKR - transmission components $VMI - grid components Power Electronics $AEIS - power control electronics $VICR - power delivery Capacitor Banks $VSH - power capacitors and capacitor banks Substations & High-Voltage Circuit Breakers $POWL - substations/switchgear $AZZ - substations Transformers $HPS.A - My favorite for transformers $SPXC - power transformers Electrical Core Steel $CLF - Only producer of electrical steel in America? This included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel TLDR: The executive action declared a national energy emergency regarding the domestic supply chain for grid infrastructure. Authorized federal funding, purchase commitments, and expedited actions to rapidly expand the manufacturing. Lot of beneficiaries, I made a mini ETF of with $AMSC, $CLF, $PLPC, and then $HPS.A; dont have any of the others. There's probably going to be a bunch of DOE contracts in the next 3-6 months like " DoE Awards ___ to $POWL " off this act is my guess.
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NVTS 小仓位
@daniel_koss 谢谢！不过 $NVTS 只是小仓位。我整体上还是更看好光子学这条主线。 没必要对 $NVDA 出现的每个故事都去配置。
英文原文
@daniel_koss thanks! small positions on $NVTS though. I find photonics theme more compelling overall. People don't need to get exposure to every story that pops up with $NVDA.
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AOSL 也知道，但还是选了 NVTS
@pennycheck 我知道 $AOSL，只是最后还是选了 $NVTS。
英文原文
@pennycheck Was aware of $AOSL, just went with $NVTS instead.
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ASMC 也是 DPA 受益者
是的，我自己也持有一些 $ASMC。他们是昨天“国防生产法”的一个大受益者，因为他们和“先进导体”和“电力控制电子”有关。 我还找到了他们的 HTS 线材业务和 $MSFT 的联系。电网板块也应该会受益。
英文原文
Yeah I own some $ASMC. They're a large beneficiary of the "Defense Production Act" yesterday since they have links to "advanced conductors" and "power control electronics.". Found links to $MSFT for HTS technology for their HTS wire segment. Grid segment should be a beneficiary too.
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NVDA 推进 800V
$NVDA 正在积极推进 800V，这对今天来说是一个相当大的信号。 “2026 年 4 月 22 日，NVIDIA 已经与主要韩国电力设备公司展开讨论，探索基于约 800V 直流（DC）系统设计数据中心基础设施。” 之前提到的 Nvidia 合作伙伴包括：Infineon、$TXN、$STM、$NVTS、Delta、Flex、$ETN、Schneider 和 $VRT。 早就知道他们在往这个方向推了，但……看起来现在真的是 Nvidia 在主导。 我个人对 $NVTS 的敞口很小，因为它们在 800V DC 的 SiC / GaN IC 方面暴露很高。 我知道其他人更喜欢 $VICR 作为敞口。
英文原文
$NVDA actively pushing to 800V, and today was a pretty big signal. "On April 22, 2026, NVIDIA has initiated discussions with major South Korean power equipment companies to explore designing DC infra based on an approximately 800V direct current (DC) system" Previous named Nvidia partners include: Infineon, $TXN, $STM, $NVTS, Delta, Flex, $ETN, Schneider, and $VRT. It's been known they're been pushing for this but... looks like Nvidia is really driving it. Personally very small exposure to $NVTS since they're they have a high exposure for SiC/GaN ICs for 800V DCs. I know others really liked $VICR for exposure.
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POET 小仓位
@LNMDad POET 只持有小仓位。
英文原文
@LNMDad Small positions in $POET
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POET 盘前大涨
哇，我漏掉了这个。 这大概就是 $POET 盘前涨 20.2% 的原因，它验证了“远超采购订单”的说法，再叠加和 $MRVL 的供应商关系。 这也会实质性传导到 $SIVE 的激光产量上。 我个人觉得市场两边都还没有完全计价进去。
英文原文
Oh wow, I missed this. That's probably why $POET is up 20.2% pre-market confirming "far in excess" of purchase orders on top of $MRVL supplier relationships. That translates materially to $SIVE laser production as well. Markets haven't fully priced in either yet imo.
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纳斯达克上市后不一样了
@jcolt1111 现在不一样了，最近的上涨加上未来会在美国纳斯达克上市。
英文原文
@jcolt1111 not anymore with the recent rally and future US nadaq listing.
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UBS 打工会很搞笑
@Clement_Ang17 那要是他们在 UBS 工作的话就太好笑了。
英文原文
@Clement_Ang17 That would be hilarious if they worked at UBS
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博主炫耀自己早前推荐的IQE等股票被机构买入，强调研究前瞻性。
各位，大家都曾质疑我推荐的像$IQE这样的股票。 但为什么…我发了研究报告之后，瑞银或Point72这些机构都买入了？ 不知道瑞典媒体是否在做空$SIVE，但他们意识到是谁发掘了$AXTI的价值吗？ 我非常有信心，机构可能很快会跟进，因为Sivers的激光器为$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar等公司提供动力…这些都与$GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN及其他超大规模企业有关联。
英文原文
Bro everyone was doubting me on names like $IQE. Yet how come… all these institutions from UBS or Point72 buy in after my thesis posts? Not sure if Swedish media bearposting $SIVE realized who found $AXTI? I’m very confident institutions will likely follow-in soon given Sivers lasers power $MRVl, $JBL, Ayar, and others… with links to $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and other hyperscalers.
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改变对Soitec的看法建仓，看好CPO赛道和NVDA催化剂，认为有3倍空间
改变了对Soitec（$SLOIF）的看法，建了一个可观的仓位，成本约43美元，布局CPO（共封装光学）。 $NVDA下周GTC大会是推动光子学和这种架构的最大催化剂。 市值约15亿欧元，以1倍账面价值和约2倍市销率交易（估值非常低迷）。 在CPO的基板方面拥有真正的垄断地位（光子学通常享有很高的估值溢价，加上垄断地位更是额外溢价）。 算法交易员和分析师可能对市场份额感到困惑，但这家公司在SOI基板上实际上是垄断地位，因为他们授权给其他厂商如信越化学是为了多元化，例如$TSM不喜欢只有一家供应商。 我不认为机构会等到明年才提前布局像Soitec这样的名字，或者$TSEM（更不用说大多数人可能还没听说过$AXTI这样的名字）。 这个时机是在买入智能手机周期低迷阶段的可能底部，同时获得CPO在2027年中后期以及下周$NVDA GTC催化剂的全部上涨空间。 我个人认为从这里能有3倍的涨幅，所以我做多了。
英文原文
@tnglxn4 是 https://t.co/iBUxmlcYVj
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这是卡点，不是短缺
这些是横跨多年超级周期的卡点，不是瓶颈。 $AXTI、$SNDK 符合瓶颈的定义。 但像玻璃核心或者 DFB 激光这类东西，应该能穿越 2028 年，而这就是光子学或先进封装架构变化带来的下一轮量产爬坡的开始。
英文原文
These are chokepoints over multiple year supercycles not bottlenecks. $AXTI, $SNDK fit the definition of a bottleneck. But stuff like glass core or dfb lasers should scale past 2028 and this is the beginning of the next volume ramp from architectural shifts in photonics or advanced packaging.
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SIVE 仍有巨大上行
@scrotum_pensif 我还是认为，$SIVE 今天应该值 20 亿美元，而且如果 Ayar、$MRVL、$JBL 等在 2028 年的量产爬坡顺利，明年可以到 100 亿美元以上。 他们现在一切条件都对齐了。
英文原文
@scrotum_pensif I still think $SIVE should be valued $2B today and can hit $10B+ next year depending on volume ramp from Ayar, $MRVL, $JBL and others in 2028 They have all the stars aligned right now.
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欧洲 AI 受益名单
欧洲似乎正在从 AI 中获得一些乐子。 $LPK +20.69% -（玻璃核心基板） +20.69% $IQE - 12.22% -（InP 外延晶圆） $SOI +11.02% -（硅光基板） $ALRIB +5.8% -（MBE / 量子） 然后是 $SIVE，因一篇本地瑞典打击稿而下跌 -4.7%，而 $POET 在确认了 Marvell 供应商关系后上涨了 40%+。 不过我依然非常看多 $SIVE，因为市场还没有把它和 $POET、$MRVL 之间的联系拼起来。 不管怎样，欧洲从自己对美国超大规模云厂商的重要性上，还是有值得开心的地方。
英文原文
Europe seems to be having a fun time from AI. $LPK +20.69% - (glass core substrates) +20.69% $IQE - 12.22% - (InP epiwafers) $SOI +11.02% - (silicon photonics substrates) $ALRIB +5.8% - (MBE / Quantum) Then there’s $SIVE down -4.7% from a local Swedish hit piece, while $POET is up 40%+ after Marvell supplier confirmation. But I’m very bullish on $SIVE since markets haven’t pieced together the connection to $POET and $MRVL yet. Regardless, Europe has something to be happy about from being important to American hyperscalers.
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IQE 走势太夸张
@匿名网友 你听了吗，$IQE？ 欧洲半导体那边真是离谱的表现……而且它们刚好都是我的持仓。 https://t.co/hoA4W0un3i
英文原文
Uhh… did listen anon with $IQE? Just ridiculous performance in European semi land… and they all happen to be my picks. https://t.co/hoA4W0un3i
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瑞典人卖， آمریک人买
@ThriveSnap 可能是因为每天早上都有一些本地瑞典打击稿在写 $SIVE。 然后美国人就把本地人卖出的东西全买走。 这就是公司控制权在公司还小的时候转移的方式。
英文原文
@ThriveSnap Probably because every morning there’s some local Swedish hit piece on $SIVE. Then Americans just buy everything locals sell. Thats how control of the company gets transferred while it’s still small.
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POET 直供 MRVL
哇……$POET 今天盘前涨了 20.5%，而此前还已经涨了 19.32%。 主要原因是 CFO 的采访确认他们是 $MRVL 的直接供应商。 我想知道市场是不是已经知道上游激光供应商是谁了？（提示：$SIVE）。 https://t.co/flfx9NVkxk
英文原文
Woah... $POET is up 20.5% premarket today after a 19.32% gain. Mainly after the CFO's interview confirming they're the direct supplier to $MRVL. I wonder if markets know who the upstream laser supplier is yet? (hint: $SIVE). https://t.co/flfx9NVkxk
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别盲目跟单
我真心佩服有一位朋友靠 copy trade 一路做到管理对冲基金。 但请不要盲目复制我谈到的东西，比如 $AXTI 或 $LPK。 这也是我一直没做 copy-trading app、也不告诉大家我什么时候卖出的主要原因。 我只是想在自己的旅程里，免费持续发布有趣的想法 / 研究。 目标是帮助你们把复杂信息整合起来，建立自己的 thesis / conviction。 不过，我还是很乐意免费分享我的想法。
英文原文
I’m genuinely impressed one of you copy traded your way into managing a hedge fund. But please don’t blindly copy stuff I talk about like $AXTI or $LPK. That’s the main reason I haven’t done copy-trading apps or tell people when I sell. I just want to publish interesting thoughts / research for free as I go along my journey. With the goal of helping you all synthesize complex information to build your own thesis/conviction. Happy to help share my thoughts for free though.
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不错的视频
@Wizeguy114 很棒的视频。
英文原文
@Wizeguy114 goated video