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LULU 不该找 Nike 老将
只是个想法……也许别请一个 $NKE 的“老将”来领导 $LULU 的品牌重启？ 这就像 PayPal 去请前 HP 的 CEO 一样。 我真的无语了。 https://t.co/GAE7
英文原文
Just a thought… Maybe don’t hire a $NKE “veteran” to lead the $LULU brand revival? It’s the equivalent of PayPal hiring the former HP CEO. I’m just speechless. https://t.co/GAE7pnx8qJ
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宏观回调很正常
@Spunkybunny520 今天从 $AAOI 到 $AMSC 的所有名字，都因为宏观因素出现了健康回调。
英文原文
@Spunkybunny520 Everything from $AAOI to $AMSC today had a healthy correction from macro.
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850M 光子公司也该长期看多
@centraly22 如果一家 8.5 亿美元市值的光子公司不是很可能在一年内向 $AAPL、$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar 等客户进入量产爬坡，我不会对它有这么高的 conviction。
英文原文
@centraly22 I wouldn’t have high conviction long on a $850m MC photonics company if they weren’t likely volume ramping to $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, Ayar, and others in a years time.
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TAM 扩张不只 Apple 一家
@Photonix1337 这已经低估了 TAM 的扩张，因为三星、华为、Google 以及其他公司都在复制 $AAPL。 Apple 还能把同样的技术用到其他产品线里。
英文原文
@Photonix1337 That’s underselling TAM expansion with Samsung, Huawei, Google, and others all copying $AAPL. Alongside the same technology for other product lines Apple offers.
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夸一句自己捐得不少
@XtineFang 哈哈！我肯定没带来 35.5 万美元，只是贡献了其中相当一部分。
英文原文
@XtineFang lol! I definitely didn’t bring 355k, just contributed to a material fraction of that.
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SIVE 可能更早放量
我当时估计的是 2027 年 9 月，或者 2028 年上半年。$SIVE 提供的图表也许暗示放量会比预期更早。 如果一家公司让我等 5 年研发，我个人不会去做多。 但我做多，是为了拿到过去 5 年开发成果带来的上行，以及 2027 年来自 Ayar、$AAPL 和其他客户的量产爬坡。
英文原文
I had September 2027 or H1 2028 as my estimates. Graph provided by $SIVE might hint at earlier ramp than expected. I personally wouldn’t go long on a company if I had to wait 5 years for R&D. But I went long to get the upside from all development for the past 5 years with Ayar, $AAPL, and other for 2027 volume ramp.
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Win Semi 负责扩产
Win Semi 负责扩产……这也是我看多 $SIVE 的原因，这样他们就不用自己烧 capex 去处理这件事。 世界上能做这类事的公开上市公司没几家，而且它们都已经是几十亿美元市值了。 $JBL 专门选 Sivers 是有原因的。Ayar 也是。和 $LITE、$MTSI 等相比都一样。 只看市值就低估这家公司的人真的太多了。
英文原文
Win Semi handles expansion… that’s why I was bullish on $SIVE so they don’t need to burn through capex handling this. There’s only a few publicly traded companies in the world that can do this and they’re all in the tens of billions. There’s a reason $JBL selected Sivers in specific. Same with Ayar. Compared to $LITE, $MTSI and the others. People really underestimate the company just by looking at the MC.
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Win Semi 替 SIVE 做量产爬坡
@B_Funk_ Win Semi 负责给像 $SIVE 这样的公司做量产爬坡。Win 体量很大，而且是 SpaceX 供应链和 $AVGO 的代工厂。
英文原文
@B_Funk_ Win Semi hands volume ramp for companies like $SIVE. Win is massive and is the foundry for SpaceX supply chains and $AVGO.
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AAPL 使用 SIVE InP 激光阵列
秘密是，$AAPL 🍎 正在用 $SIVE 的 InP 激光阵列来大规模生产消费硬件（高置信度）。 按估计和图表来看，发布时间大概在 2027 年下半年。 想象一下 Apple 每年以 5000 万台以上的规模生产消费硬件…… 还是用一家市值 8.5 亿美元的激光供应商，哈哈。 然后 Apple 一旦这么做，$GOOGL、三星以及其他公司也会跟着上。
英文原文
The secret is that $AAPL 🍎 is using $SIVE InP laser arrays for mass production of consumer hardware (high confidence). Launch date around late H2 2027 from estimates and the graph provided. Imagine Apple mass producing consumer hardware with 50M+/units a year… Off a $850m MC laser supplier lol. Then with whatever Apple does, you’ll get $GOOGL, Samsung, and the others following along next.
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OpenAI 也有传染风险
@YCM47233993 对，如果 OpenAI 倒下，会有很强的连带风险。好消息是，他们融到的钱够再撑一年……
英文原文
@YCM47233993 Yeah OpenAi has so much contagion set up if they go down. But good thing is, they raised enough to last another year…
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OpenAI 融资与估值循环
我很抱歉，但这到底怎么运作的？ > Softbank 贷 400 亿美元过桥贷款去投资 OpenAI > OpenAI 的纸面估值上涨 > Softbank 再用 OpenAI 新估值去拿保证金贷款……也许是为了还最初那笔贷款？ 这让我想起 FTX 的股权 / FTT 代币，只不过换成了 OpenAI 股权。
英文原文
I'm sorry, but how does this work? > Softbank takes out $40B bridge loan to invest in OpenAi > OpenAi paper valuation goes up > Softbank gets margin loan off OpenAI's new valuation... maybe to pay back original loan? I'm getting PTSD from the FTX equity/FTT token but with OpenAI equity.
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IBKR 也赚了点中介费
@x4tsr 大概会少赚几百万的推荐费……不过没关系，至少让 $IBKR 的净利润稍微多了一点。
英文原文
@x4tsr Probably would have been millions in referral fees… it’s okay though, improves $IBKR earnings net income by a tiny bit.
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IBKR 现在确实更好
不客气，$IBKR？ 但它现在确实是更好的券商，我倒是很惊讶 $HOOD 还没有国际股票。
英文原文
You’re welcome $IBKR? But it legitimately is the better brokerage right now, I’m surprised $HOOD doesn’t have international stocks. https://t.co/yMEZOXtI9w
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SIVE 的最佳 TA 形态
这其实是我最喜欢的 $SIVE 技术图形。 我把它叫做： “把公司所有权从瑞典本地人转移给美国投资者 / 机构。” 时点刚好卡在美国纳斯达克上市和超大规模云厂商 2027 年量产爬坡之前。 特别感谢那边的媒体。 https://t.co/eLMqRQ5CSB
英文原文
This is actually my favorite $SIVE TA setup. I name this: "Transferring ownership of the company from Swedish locals to American investors/institutions." Good timing right before US Nasdaq listing and hyperscaler 2027 volume ramp. Special thanks to the media over there. https://t.co/eLMqRQ5CSB
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交易和投资分开看
有些东西是拿来交易的，有些东西是拿来投资的。 我自从上个月买了 $SIVE 之后，一股都没卖过。我觉得如果他们按正确方式出牌，它会是下一个 $LITE，这就是一笔长期投资。 至于像 $AXTI 这种，我已经涨了 1000%+，但我还是拿着。对于光子这类多年超级周期，不需要卖。 我确实会在看到周期接近尾声，或者有重大变化时，去交短期资本利得税。比如我之前就把 $HOOD、$MSTR 和加密相关名字都卖掉了。乌克兰和平协议出来后，军用无人机相关名字我也做过短线回撤交易。像 $META 或 $MSFT 这种短线修复交易我也会做。 其他长期投资就只要拿着，让它复利，再用保证金提取来避免触发资本利得税。
英文原文
There's stuff I trade, and stuff I invest in. I haven't sold a single $SIVE share since I bought it last month. I expect this to be the next $LITE if they play their cards right, and this is a long term investment. As for stuff like $AXTI, I'm up over 1000%+ but I'm still holding. For multi-year supercycles (photonics), don't need to sell. I do take short-term capital gains tax if I see an end of a cycle nearing or there's material changes, like took all of mine on $HOOD, $MSTR, and crypto names earlier. Or drone names after Greeland peace deal. There's also short term recovery trades like on $META or $MSFT that I take short-term on too. Otherwise, for long term investments, can just hold, let it compound, and use margin withdrawal to not trigger capital gains.
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博主表示高确信看多$SIVE，并举例HOOD和RKLB历史高确信建仓均获利丰厚
我对$SIVE有很高的确信度。我所有历史上高确信度的选择都大幅盈利了，比如当初20美元的$HOOD或者十几美元的$RKLB。
英文原文
@leglock140448 I have high conviction in $SIVE. All my historical high conviction picks are green by a lot like $HOOD back at $20 or $RKLB in the 10’s.
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不会回应这种蠢话
@Jesusjlloret 我都不知道该怎么回应这么蠢的话。
英文原文
@Jesusjlloret I’m not sure how to respond to something so stupid
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LWLG 和 SIVE 的估值对比
@SidkMena $LWLG 只有一项和 $TSEM 的开发协议试验，市值却有 22 亿美元。 $SIVE 正在出货激光器，明年很可能会进入几乎所有超大规模云厂商的光学项目里，而市值只有 8.2 亿美元。 这是我今天看到的最被低估的机会之一。
英文原文
@SidkMena $LWLG has one developer agreement trial with $TSEM and is valued at $2.2B $SIVE is shipping lasers that likely ends up in every hyperscaler optical program next year and is valued at $820m One of the most undervalued opportunities I see today.
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SIVE 被市场严重低估
@Dulbas163452 谢谢！这些内容都是我在脑子里自己映射出来的，所以我个人会觉得 $SIVE 被低估得很离谱、上行空间也很大…… 但大多数人其实不太懂，所以用流程图的形式总是更有帮助。
英文原文
@Dulbas163452 Thanks! This is just mapped in my head so I personally see how stupidly undervalued/high potential $SIVE is... Majority of others don't really understand though, so flowchart format always helps.
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Win Semi 没错
@LMutaaya 就是 Win Semi……所以是的。
英文原文
@LMutaaya It's Win Semi... so yes.
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SIVE 还有很大上行
@SpilledMocha 我确信，只要 Marvell、Jabil、Ayar、O-Net 和其他公司有足够的 CPO / 1.6T 放量，$SIVE 从这里翻 10 倍是有可能的。
英文原文
@SpilledMocha I'm convinced $SIVE could 10x from here if there's enough CPO/1.6T volume ramp from Marvell, Jabil, Ayar, O-Net, and others.
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SIVE 正在对接 AAPL
@ashmyro 我已经知道 $SIVE 是下一个很可能的 $AAPL 供应商，这很重要。 我自己最关注的是它们给 AI 数据中心供货的 DFB 激光，因为那会是它们未来的核心营收驱动力。
英文原文
@ashmyro I'm already aware $SIVE is the next likely $AAPL supplier, which is huge. I've been focusing on their DFB lasers going to AI datacenters the most personally, since that's their core revenue drivers in the future.
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SIVE 终局映射很夸张
$SIVE 可能在 2027-2028 年映射到的所有超大规模云厂商，光按 9 亿美元市值来看就已经夸张了。 市场根本不懂接下来会发生什么。 从推测性映射来看： > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN（来自 Celestial 的光子 fabric 采购协议 / warrants） 2. $MSFT（maia） 3. $GOOGL（最近和 Marvell 的开发对话） $SIVE 为 Poet Starlight / 光学 interposer 提供激光，而且几天前 Poet 的 CFO 也确认他们正在给 Marvell 供货。 > $SIVE -> $POET -> “其他超大规模云供应商的 NDA” 1. 西方超大规模云厂商 > $SIVE -> $JBL（1.6T LRO）-> 1. $META（Jabil 承接了 $INTC 的硅光遗产，对应 Meta LRO 项目） 2. $NVDA（NVIDIA 可能把光模块 OEM 出去）-> $MSFT | AWS | 其他超大规模云厂商 $SIVE 是 $JBL 1.6T 光模块已确认的激光源。 > $SIVE -> Ayar（上个月为了量产爬坡融资 5 亿美元） -> 1. Alchip（联合 CPO） 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN（Alchip） -> $AMD（来自 $GFS 合作的 CPO）也有可能。 $SIVE 已知是 Ayar 的激光供应商，而且 Ayar 最近把 $MTSI / $LITE 从网站上删掉了。现在只显示 $GFS + $SIVE，这很可能说明 Sivers 是主要激光供应商。 既然 $GFS x $AMD 最近合作了，那如果 AMD 走 Ayar 路线，Sivers 就可能成为其 CPO 项目的核心激光供应商。 > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net（大型亚洲 OEM）-> 亚洲超大规模云厂商 1. $AVGO ELS（可能） 2. $META 和 $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance（可能）-> ELS 4. Tencent（可能）-> ELS 5. Alibaba（可能）-> ELS $SIVE 和 O-Net / Enablence 在 OFC 附近有 ELS 合作关系。 Sivers 激光由 Win Semi 之类的代工厂大规模生产……而且在最近的图片展示里，它们也验证在 $GFS 的 CPO 供应链中。 这不是在看 Sivers 今天靠认证收入能指引多少，而是未来每一个西方 / 亚洲超大规模云厂商在 2027、2028、2029 及以后对 CPO / 1.6T 的需求所对应的营收。 $SIVE 看起来是市场上最不被了解、但还没被真正反映出来的光子股票之一。
英文原文
All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC. Markets don't understand what's coming. From speculative mapping: > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial) 2. $MSFT (maia) 3. $GOOGL (recent development talks with Marvell) $SIVE powers Poet Starlight/optical interposers, and Poet's CFO confirmed they're supplying to Marvell few days ago. > $SIVE -> $POET -> "NDAs other hyperscaler suppliers" 1. Western Hyperscalers > $SIVE -> $JBL (1.6T LRO)-> 1. $META (Jabil $INTC SiPH inheritance, maps to Meta LRO program) 2. $NVDA (NVIDIA possibly OEMs optical transceivers) -> $MSFT | AWS | hyperscalers $SIVE is the confirmed laser source for $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers. > $SIVE -> Ayar ($500m fundraiser last month for volume ramp) -> 1. Alchip (Joint CPO) 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN (Alchip) -> $AMD (CPO from $GFS partnership) possible. $SIVE is known laser supplier to Ayar, and Ayar removed $MTSI / $LITE from their website recently. Only showing $GFS + $SIVE, likely showing Sivers was primary laser supplier. As $GFS x $AMD partnered up recently, that makes Siver a possible core laser supplier for $AMD's CPO program if they go with Ayar. > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net (massive Asian OEM)-> Asian Hyperscalers 1. $AVGO ELS (possible) 2. $META and $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance (possible) -> ELS 4. Tencent (possible) -> ELS 5. Alibaba (possible) -> ELS $SIVE ELS partnership with O-Net/Enablence around OFC. Sivers lasers is mass produced by foundries like Win Semi... and they're validated in $GFS CPO supply chains too from their recent image presentations. It's not about what Sivers is forecasting today from qualification revenue that everyone models off of. Alpha comes from future revenue proportional to demand from every Western/Asian hyperscaler for CPO/1.6T in 2027, 2028, 2029, and onward. $SIVE looks like one of the most unknown photonic stocks on the market that's yet to come.
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别按当前财报看 2027 爬坡股
@PeterSikachev 这是 2027 年的爬坡，我不会按当前财报去判断任何新出现的光子名字。
英文原文
@PeterSikachev It's 2027 ramp, wouldn't judge any upcoming photonic names based on current earnings.
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AMD 之外的主要受益者
@northyvt 我觉得除了 $AMD 之外，$TSM 和 OSAT / 先进封装合作伙伴会是主要受益者？ 也许 $AMAT、$LRCX、$KLAC、$ASML 以及其他公司也会受益？ $INTC 也有他们最近回购回来的自有工厂，所以也挺开心的。
英文原文
@northyvt I feel like $TSM and OSAT/advanced packaging partners are the main beneficiaries apart from $AMD? Maybe like $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC, $ASML and others too? $INTC also have their own fabs that they bought back recently so it's happy.
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CPU 开始像存储一样短缺
CPU “严重短缺” 现在看着 CPU 一天天变得越来越像存储，挺好笑的，像 $SNDK 那样不断涨价。 “自 3 月以来，服务器 CPU 已上涨 10% 到 20%” $INTC 和 $AMD 计划在 Q3 继续涨价。 “CPU 供应很可能在 2026 和 2027 年继续紧张”，其中“Intel 的服务器 CPU 短缺可能长达 6 个月，AMD 则为 8 到 12 周”。 $TSM 也在因这波短缺而增加 capex。 “恐慌的主要原因是 CPU 和 AI ASIC 需求同时爆发；目前库存包括 Intel、AMD 主流代际 CPU，以及 $NVDA 即将推出的 Vera CPU，全部都在 3nm 工艺上。” 看起来我们又绕回来了？
英文原文
CPU "serious supply shortage" It's still funny to see CPUs become more like memory day-by-day with the price hikes like $SNDK. "Server CPUs have jumped between 10% and 20% since March" with $INTC and $AMD planning to further price hikes Q3. "CPU supply is likely to remain tight through 2026 and 2027" with "server CPU shortages reaching up to six months for Intel and 8-12 weeks for AMD" $TSM is also increasing capex in response to this shortage. "The main reason behind the fear is the simultaneous outbreak of CPU and AI ASIC demand; inventory currently includes Intel, AMD mainstream generation CPU, and $NVDA's upcoming Vera CPU, all using 3nm process Looks like we've come full circle?
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台湾的处置规则很烦
@mininginvestorr 是啊，不知道为什么台湾会有那样的处置规则……没有流动性的时候，它只会让价格更容易往下砸。 他们真的应该改一改交易政策。
英文原文
@mininginvestorr Yeah not sure why Taiwan has disposition rules like that... It just really exacerbates price movements downward off no liquidity? They really need to change some of their trading policies.
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SIVE/LPK 是 2027 新技术
嗯。CPO / 玻璃基板这块，可能就是 $SIVE 或 $LPK，因为它们都是 2027 年会出现的新技术变化。 我真的不觉得市场已经理解了 Sivers 在 CPO / 1.6T 光模块上会发生什么……即便我已经把它映射到 $AMD 或 $MRVL 的 CPO 项目里。 LPKF Laser 也让我觉得风险被降低了，因为我们知道玻璃核心基板是马上要来的，而且它们在很小的估值下就掌握了一个根本性卡点。
英文原文
Hmmm. Probably $SIVE or $LPK for CPO/Glass Substrates since those are emerging technological shifts in 2027. I really don't think markets understand yet what's up and coming with Sivers for CPO/1.6T optical transceivers... even if I show mapping to $AMD or $MRVL CPO programs. LPKF Laser feels de-risked since we know glass core substrates are up and coming and they hold a fundamental chokepoint at tiny valuations.
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Win 和 Shunsin 不会直线上涨
我觉得很多新朋友会惊讶地发现： 股票不会像 Win（3105）和 Shunsin（6451）今天这样直线上涨。 Win 未来 12 个月非常有吸引力，尽管短期会有波动。Shunsin 也是，它是富士康的光子封装 / 测试部门。 可能会有战争式波动，比如伊朗扣了两艘船…… 但我预计 CPO 相关名字会明显跑赢任何宏观环境，并带来更多历史新高。
英文原文
I think many newcomers will be surprised to learn: Stocks don’t move in a straight line up as seen with Win (3105) and Shunsin (6451) today. Win is very compelling over the next 12 months, despite short term volatility. Same with Shunsin as Foxconn’s photonics packaging/test arm. Probably going to be War volatility, with Iran seizing two ships… But I expect CPO related names to heavily outperform any macro climate and lead to more ATHs.
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AIXA 被挡住后会很糟
@R2Discovery 对，像这种也是另一个例子，如果美国没有阻止 $AIXA，这家公司对光子建设至关重要…… 那西方供应链的处境会糟透了。 但政府常常会漏掉一些利基的上游公司。
英文原文
@R2Discovery Yes stuff like this is another example, if US didn't block $AIXA, which is critical for photonics buildout... Western supply chains would be an absolutely horrible spot. But there's some niche upstream companies the governments miss.