2026-05-14 · 供应链分析

$SIVE 年报显示 CPO 与 pluggable 双线扩张

中文翻译

$SIVE 2025 年报分析。 TLDR：非常看多。 Sivers 的主增长向量是 CPO，但他们已经把 TAM 扩展到 pluggable transceivers，以及多项新的 qualification / development。 1. “We are currently seeing great interest... testing our DFB lasers across multiple manufacturers in pluggable transceivers” 从 pluggable 角度看，我们已经在 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 上看到类似情况，而年报暗示他们还在和更多 hyperscaler 供应商开发 / 认证。 “Our serviceable markets have now been expanded to include pluggable optical interconnects as well as scale-up and scale-out architectures for co-packaged” （TAM 扩张） 2. “Discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers indicate a shortage of CW lasers in the coming years” $LITE 已经提示过 CW laser 的瓶颈，他们甚至不得不外购竞品。我们之前其实就猜到 CW laser 会是瓶颈。而这次年报确认了这一点，所以我也在看 Win Semi。 “The partnership announced with high-volume supplier Win Semiconductor in March 2025 now gives us a strong position to meet growing demand” $SIVE 很可能已经通过 Win 锁定了产能，这正是我最想确认的。这把 Sivers 放在了 CW laser 既是瓶颈又是 CPO 激光架构领导者的位置。 H2 量产信号（看多）： 3. “The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026” H1 更偏 preproduction，H2 才是量产启动，像 $POET 那样。 4. “We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026” $AEVA 在 2026 年 Q4 开始量产，对 $SIVE 也是利好。 LIDAR 提供了 revenue floor，而他们的 CPO 正在放量。 5. Sivers 还宣布和 LIGHTIUM AG 合作，把 CW laser 直接整合到 TFLN wafers 上。3.2T+ 周期，属于未来防守。顺带说一下，去年 2025 的财报本身，除了瑞典本地媒体/散户外，真没几个像样的投资者会在意。尤其当你看的是 2027-2028 的 CPO 超级周期时。但从财报和地理布局里你能提取到的一个高置信客户信号是：$NOK 现在已经是 $SIVE 的高置信客户。 TLDR： -> Win Semi 暗示在 CW laser 瓶颈下锁定了产能 -> 新一批 hyperscaler 供应商在测试/认证 pluggable transceivers，TAM 巨大扩张 -> 新的 CW laser 客户 -> photonics 和 lidar 都在 H2 开始量产爬坡。

英文原文

$SIVE 2025 annual report analysis. TLDR: Extremely Bullish. Sivers main growth vector is CPO, but they've TAM expansioned to pluggable transcivers + multiple new qualifications/development. 1. "We are currently seeing great interest... testing our DFB lasers across multiple manufacturers in pluggable transceivers" For pluggable angle, we've seen this with $JBL 1.6T LRO already, but annual report hinted they're developing/qualifying with more hyperscaler suppliers. "Our serviceable markets have now been expanded to include pluggable optical interconnects as well as scale-up and scale-out architectures for co-packaged" (TAM expansion) 2. "Discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers indicate a shortage of CW lasers in the coming years" $LITE already signaled CW laser bottlenecks, and they had to buy externally from competitors. So we kinda guessed CW Laser was a bottleneck. And this confirmed it, so was wondering about Win semi. "The partnership announced with high-volume supplier Win Semiconductor in March 2025 now gives us a strong position to meet growing demand" $SIVE likely has capacity locked in with Win from this nuance, which is exactly what I wanted to know. This positions Sivers in the CW laser as both a bottleneck and CPO laser architectural leader. VOLUME PRODUCTION H2 INDICATIONS (BULLISH): 3. "The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026" H1 is more preproduction, H2 production signaled starting with names like $POET. 4. "We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026" $AEVA start of volume production Q4 with $SIVE = bullish for both. Revenue floor from LIDAR as their CPO scales. 5. Sivers announced a partnership with LIGHTIUM AG to integrate their CW lasers directly onto TFLN wafers. 3.2T+ cycle. (future proofing) FYI no decent investor cares about last year's 2025 financials from development contracts aside from Swedish Media/Locals. Especially when you're forward looking for the 2027-2028 CPO supercycle. But the hint from you can take away from financials + geography that is $NOK is now the high confidence customer of $SIVE. TLDR: -> Win Semi implied capacity lock in during CW laser bottleneck -> Hints of new group of hyperscaler suppliers testing/qualification for pluggable transcivers, which is massive TAM expansion. -> New customers for CW lasers -> Volume production scaling starting H2 for both photonics and lidar.

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