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看好 SNAP 低估但反驳存储付费采用率过高假设
兄弟，我也一直在发 $SNAP 多头帖，但 memories 变现的采用率大概最多也就是低个位数。 大多数人的使用量并没有超过 5GB。 那 9.43 亿月活用户里，怎么可能有 80% 甚至 25%（你上个帖子里的说法）的人为额外存储付费？ 而且它一直是代际财富毁灭机。 话虽如此，现在它确实被低估了；2% 的采用率就会带来巨大的收入增量。 但人们漏掉的核心，是从 GCP 成本削减带来的 opex 下降，比如那些 9GB 浪费的热狗视频。
英文原文
Bruh, I’ve been bull posting $SNAP too but adoption rate of memory monetization is probably single low digit at best. Majority of people don’t have over 5 GB used. So how are majority of 80% or even 25% (from your previous post) of the 943M monthly users paying for extra storage? Also it’s been a generational wealth destroyer. That being said it’s undervalued right now, 2% adoption leads to a huge increase in revenue but the core thing people miss is opex cuts from GCP costs from 9 GB wasteful hotdog videos.
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认为 FinX 散户泡沫短期拥挤但长期方向常常正确
FinX 是泡沫。/r/wallstreetbets 上的交易员也是。 人们都持有同样的股票：$NBIS、$TE、$ASTS、$HOOD、$RKLB、$IREN、$KRKNF、$ONDS、$SOFI、$AMD、$TSLA 等。 但是：这是好事。 这些年我一遍又一遍看到这种情况。 短期看，当人们买 1-3 个月期权时，他们会在这些“泡沫化”和拥挤交易里亏钱。 但从一年后的长期看，散户对这些公司的方向判断往往是对的。 这才是最重要的部分。 例如，一两年前 $NVDA 刚起飞时，$TSM（140-150 美元）是 Reddit 上最热门的 ticker。 散户方向上看对了，因为 $TSM 是整个 AI 建设的中心。 短期里，所有人都亏钱了，因为他们买了两个月后的 call，而股票横盘，甚至跌到 127 美元。 一年后，它涨了 100%+，那些 call 本来会涨 10 倍。 $MU 也一样。Reddit 知道内存是 AI 热潮的重要组成部分，于是都挤进同一笔交易。 但 $MU 在 100 美元横盘了一整年，大家都亏钱了。 快进到现在，从 Micron 到 SK 海力士，内存成了最热门的东西，股价从 65 美元冲到 245 美元，涨了 200%+。 散户方向上是对的，但中途投降了。 我确信，像 $NBIS 这样的股票，现在正处于散户买了太多短期期权，然后像当年 $TSM 或 $MU 下跌时那样，连股票也一起投降的阶段。 但快进一年，这可能就是 $TSM、$MU 或 $HOOD（18 美元时）那种 3-4 倍回报，当初散户方向其实一直是对的。 我相信 FinX 散户股票“泡沫”在较短时间框架里未必正确，因为 OI、宏观波动和做市商会主导价格；但长期方向上往往是对的。
英文原文
FinX is a bubble. Same with traders on /r/wallstreetbets. People own the same stocks $NBIS, $TE, $ASTS, $HOOD, $RKLB, $IREN, $KRKNF, $ONDS, $SOFI, $AMD, $TSLA and others. However: It’s a positive thing. I’ve seen this on repeat again and again throughout the years. Short term when people buy 1-3 months options, they lose money on these “bubbly” and crowded trades. Long term 1 year later, retail gets these companies directionally right. And this is the most important part. For example, $TSM ($140-$150) was the most popular ticker a year or two ago on Reddit when $NVDA was initially taking off back. Retail got this directionally right, because $TSM was the center of all AI buildout. Short term, everyone lost money because they bought calls for 2M out and the stock stalled and even dropped to $127. One year later it’s up over 100%+ and all those calls would have 10x’ed. Same with $MU. Reddit knew memory was a huge part of the AI boom and piled in on the same trade. Yet $MU stalled at $100 for an entire year and everyone lost money. Fast forward, memory from Micron to Sk Hynix is the hottest thing now and shot up 200%+ from $65 to $245 . Retail got this right directionally right but capitulated. I’m convinced on stocks like $NBIS that we’re in the period of time where retail bought too many short dated calls and are capitulating with shares like the drops on $TSM or $MU. However fast forward a year, this might be that 3x-4x return like $TSM or $MU or $HOOD (at $18) where retail was directionally right all along. I’m confident Finx Retail stock “bubbles” might not be right in shorter timeframes - where OI, macro volatility, and MMs dominate - but are right directionally long term.
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高成长持仓遭遇大幅回撤，但散户风险可控，期权到期将清洗未平仓合约。
经历这种规模的全市场下跌真的非常痛苦。鉴于我目前的投资组合具有高贝塔值(高Beta)/成长股敞口，这大概是我亏损最严重的一天之一。只要散户没有被强制平仓(被Margin Call)或持有短期期权，他们应该没事。本月19日有大量期权到期，所以这只会清洗掉未平仓合约(Open Interest)。
英文原文
It's really painful to experience a market-wide drop at this scale. Probably one of my biggest red days given how high-beta/growth exposure my portfolio is right now. As long as retail don't get margined out or have short-dated options, they should be fine. Tons of option expiration on the 19th this month, so this just hoses out the open interest.
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AVGO财报被误读，AI逻辑未变，大跌提供买入良机。
我对 $AVGO 财报的解读是，市场主要误解了其积压订单(backlog)数据。关于 $NVDA GPU 生态系统和 Mag7 ASIC 生态系统的 AI 交易整体逻辑依然成立，但市场却将其视为泡沫破裂+严重不及预期。我们正经历从“AI是下一个大趋势”到“AI是泡沫”，再到“AI是下一个大趋势”，最后又回到“AI是泡沫”的循环。波动性和13%以上的跌幅使得多只股票成为良好的买入机会。
英文原文
So my takeaway from $AVGO earnings is that it's mainly misunderstood backlog numbers. Overall thesis on AI trade from $NVDA GPU ecosystem and Mag7 ASIC ecosystem is in-tact but the market is treating it like a bubble popping + terrible miss. We're just going from AI is the next big thing -> Ai is a bubble -> AI is the next big thing -> AI is a bubble. Volatility and -13%+ drops makes several names a good buy.
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解析Tether发行稳定币购国债并投资黄金、比特币及足球队的商业模式。
@tether Tether 的逻辑完全讲得通。 -> 发行美元稳定币 -> 购买美国国债 -> 收取利息以购买黄金、比特币和尤文图斯足球俱乐部等稳定资产。
英文原文
@tether Tether makes complete sense. -> Issue USD Stablecoins -> Buy US Treasuries -> Collect interest to buy stable assets like Gold, Bitcoin, and the Juventus Football club.
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博通财报后AI板块抛售是误解造成的买入机会，新云板块中OpenAI依赖股除外
博通[$AVGO]业绩及其对AI板块的影响，如$LIITE和$NBIS： 博通的业绩"双重超预期"，营收$180.2亿(+28% Y/Y)，EPS $1.95，超出共识预期。 但AVGO下跌-11.64%，并拖累了整个AI板块。 这是买入机会吗？ 是的。 博通被视为超大规模云厂商ASIC代理增长的代表，因为亚马逊$AMZN Trainium、微软$MSFT Maia、尤其是谷歌$GOOGL TPU V7 Ironwood都通过它进行规模化部署。 而像$ALAB(-13.2%)、$CRDO(-5.11%)、$LITE(-12.23%)、$TSM(-3.71%)、$COHR(-9.25%)等公司都是TPU/ASIC建设以及博通作为公司的直接受益者。 博通下跌有三个原因，市场下跌有一个原因： 就博通而言，有一些小问题，如税率变化影响EPS模型，或因更多定制AI芯片而非更高利润率软件导致的"利润率压缩"，但这只是会计处理框架问题。（类似于$META在一次性税收后最初的下跌） 对博通和整体市场而言，是积压订单预期问题。以上所有引用的内容与ASIC市场预期增长相比都是小问题。 博通披露未来18个月$730亿的AI积压订单。而有关Anthropic和META购买价值数十亿$GOOGL TPU的传言，人们隐含预期是$800亿+。 然而，这次抛售是由算法和短期AI泡沫情绪驱动的价格错位，而非基本面破裂。 这条积压订单引用是确认订单的最低合同底线。谷歌$GOOGL、亚马逊$AMZN等公司可能会继续增加ASIC订单，而市场未能辨别这一细微差别。 分析师预期营收转化会更加前置，Q4之后积压订单应该会减少，这给出了2026年更高的可能范围$550-600亿+，而非$730亿预期中的$500亿。 TLDR：关于超大规模云厂商ASIC加速以与$NVDA依赖竞争这一论点没有改变。$AVGO和其他如$COHR、Sk Hynix、$MU、$VRT和$LITE都将受益。 这不是关于营收积压订单的最佳消息，但由于交付周期/订单周期和最低底线而被误解。 如果非要说什么，较低的超级云厂商ASIC需求对$NVDA及其生态系统是有益的，但我们也看到$CRWV、$SMCI、$NBIS和$NVDA GPU/DC计算生态系统今天都从盲目抛售中下跌超过5%，尽管存在负相关性。 这又是典型的"AI泡沫"周期因误解而再次来袭。AI股票普遍下跌10-12%的恐慌是一个绝佳的买入机会。 （该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 甲骨文[$ORCL]业绩及其对新云板块如$NBIS和$IREN的影响： 甲骨文报告EPS超预期且积压订单创纪录，但盘后下跌12%。 甲骨文较9月11日高点下跌39.8%，并拖累整个板块。 原因如下： 这次抛售不仅仅是对边际营收miss的反应，而是算法做空和投资者对AI资本支出周期可持续性以及该板块主要租户信用资质的不看好： OpenAI。 甲骨文宣布2026年资本支出增加$150亿至近$500亿，这与报道的与OpenAI $3000亿合作伙伴关系密不可分。 最初，OpenAI是前沿LLM，对甲骨文、Coreweave等公司有前景良好的资本支出承诺，促成了该板块的初始重新定价。 然而，随着超过$1万亿的义务以及Anthropic、Gemini、XAI等竞争对手的增加，市场严重质疑甲骨文、Coreweave等公司是否为无法从运营现金流履行其义务的租户在建设。 我们看到市场有效地发出信号：甲骨文正在为OpenAI创造一种不可持续的债务驱动型"供应商融资"，而OpenAI无法履行其承诺。 因此下跌是理性的：这次抛售是由信用风险和资本密集度的理性重新定价所驱动。 OpenAI融资担忧是合理的：OpenAI缺乏资金履行合同的假设得到其营收($130亿)与义务($600亿/年)之间明显不匹配的支撑。 信用担忧是真实的：甲骨文CDS利差扩大显示"信用事件"降级或违约的概率上升。 此外，我们看到这在新云板块引发传染效应，$NBIS从$140跌至$90s，$IREN从$80跌至$40s，$CIFR从$24s跌至$17s。 但这对$WULF、$NBIS、$IREN等新云公司来说是买入机会吗？ 是的。 这对$ORCL来说是好的买入机会吗？ 不是。 前瞻展望： $ORCL（很大一部分）、$CRWV（25%积压订单）是两个主要依赖OpenAI的公司，这一叙事可能因OpenAI的融资活动而瞬间翻转（+30%+变化）。 如果OpenAI在2026年以高估值超额认购IPO，且其新GPT模型击败Gemini/Claude，我们可以看到这种改变。 然而，许多其他公司与OpenAI无关。新云板块的原始论点是Mag7资本支出从其现金牛业务（Azure、AWS、GCP）向下流向：$NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR、$WULF等。 但随着最大玩家($ORCL、$CRWV)下跌，这些公司算法性地拖累了整个板块。 如果你看各家公司，$CIFR和$WULF由$GOOGL兜底，$IREN/$NBIS由$MSFT资助。 这些是与超大规模云厂商/Mag7的锁定合同积压订单，而非OpenAI。 这种因误解风险而导致的不理性抛售为新云板块提供了绝佳的买入机会，但不是与OpenAI相关的公司如$ORCL和$CRWV。
英文原文
Broadcom [ $AVGO ] earnings results and its effect on the AI sector like $LITE and $NBIS: Broadcom's ER was "double beat" with $18.02B revenue (+28% Y/Y) and $1.95 EPS, beating consensus. But AVGO dropped -11.64% and brought down the AI sector. Is this a buying opportunity? Yes. Broadcom is seen as a hyperscaler ASIC proxy growth as companies like $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia, and most importantly $GOOGL TPU V7 Ironwood are scaled through it. And by proxy companies like $ALAB (-13.2%), $CRDO (-5.11%), $LITE (-12.23%), $TSM (-3.71%), $COHR (-9.25%), and are direct beneficiaries of the TPU/Asic buildout and Broadcom as a company. There's three reasons why Broadcom fell and one why the market fell: For Broadcom, there's minor things such as tax rate changing EPS models or "margin compression" from accounting from just more custom AI chips than higher-margin software, but this is just accounting framing. (Similar to how $META dropped initially on one-time tax post-ER) For both Broadcom general market, it was backlog expectations. Everything cited above is all minor compared to expected growth of ASIC markets. Broadcom cited $73B in AI backlog for the next 18 months. And rumors of Antrophic and META buying billions of $GOOGL TPUs, people were implicitly expecting $80B+. However, the selloff represents a dislocation in price driven by algorithms and short-term AI Bubble sentiment rather than a fundamental breakage. This backlog quote was the MINIMUM CONTRACTUAL FLOOR of confirmed orders. Companies like $GOOGL, $AMZN, will likely continue ramping up ASIC orders and the market failed to discern this nuance. Analysts are expecting revenue conversion to be more front loaded, and that there should be less backlog beyond Q4 given the cycles, which gives a higher likely range of $55-60B+ for 2026 rather than $50B expected of the $73B. TLDR: The thesis regarding hyperscaler ASIC ramp to compete vs $NVDA dependency has not changed. $AVGO and other players like $COHR, Sk Hynix, $MU, $VRT, and $LITE all stand to benefit. It's not the best news regarding the revenue backlog, but it's misunderstood due to lead-time/order cycles and minimum floors. If anything, lower hyperscaler ASIC demand is beneficial to $NVDA and their ecosystem, but we've also seen $CRWV, $SMCI, $NBIS and $NVDA GPU/DC compute ecosystem drop over 5%+ today from an indiscriminate sell-off despite inverse correlation. This is just the typical "AI Bubble" cycle hitting again from misunderstanding. The widespread panic of AI stocks dropping 10-12% is a great buying opportunity.
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研究博通财报及ASIC需求外溢，计划加仓光电子股LITE。
@DigestingX 我正在研究 $AVGO 的财报，以及专用集成电路(ASIC)需求外溢至光电子(Photonics)领域如 $LITE 的情况！ 我想增加我的 $LITE 仓位，因为那目前是我持仓中占比最低的，所以正如你提到的，这可能是一个买入机会。
英文原文
@DigestingX I'm researching $AVGO earnings right now and ASIC demand spillover to photonics like $LITE! I wanted to add to my $LITE position since that was my lowest right now, so might be a buying opportunity as you mentioned.
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博主调侃公开穿OpenAI周边可能遭霸凌
@ParkerOrtolani 很抱歉，但如果有人公开穿着这件 OpenAI 周边商品，他们很可能会遭到霸凌 https://t.co/f5ezmxWEhh
英文原文
@ParkerOrtolani I’m sorry but if anyone wears this OpenAi merch in public they’re probably going to get bullied https://t.co/f5ezmxWEhh
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年轻一代仍在使用该平台，月活近10亿。
@mcF_dan 可能取决于你的年龄群体，所有年轻一代仍然在使用，鉴于其拥有近10亿月活跃用户(MAU)。 https://t.co/thMT8gmQ3a
英文原文
@mcF_dan Probably depends on your age group, all the younger gen still do, given they have close to 1B MAU. https://t.co/thMT8gmQ3a
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批评Snap AR战略失误，但认可其降本举措，认为当前估值具备投资价值。
这个观点很有趣，但我不同意。鉴于$SNAP在增强现实(AR)开发上的资本支出(capex)如此之高，它本应像$META放弃元宇宙(Metaverse)那样直接砍掉所有AR开发。 他们本应直接宣称：“我们是一家社交媒体公司”，并利用自由现金流(FCF)收购类似早期Facebook的社交媒体公司（而非硬件公司），从而与TikTok/Meta竞争。 如果当初这么做，$SNAP现在市值早已超过800亿美元。然而多年来他们未能产生更多自由现金流，这简直愚蠢至极，也证明了CEO及其愿景有多糟糕。 但他们确实做了一件事，即我原本希望Evan去做的：削减谷歌云(GCP)成本并像iCloud那样对“回忆”功能进行货币化，他们确实做到了。 尽管我认为这是一家管理极差的公司，但我认为从估值角度看，它现在是一个不错的投资标的。
英文原文
Interesting take but I disagree. $SNAP should have just scrapped any AR development (like $META for Metaverse) given how much capex spend it is. And just went out and say: "We're a social media company" + compete vs Tiktok/Meta by acquiring social media companies like early stage Facebook (instead of hardware ones) with FCF. $SNAP would have been a $80B+ company by now but the fact they're not producing more FCF after all these years is just incredibly stupid and a testament to how bad the CEO + vision is. But they did the one thing I wanted Evan to do which was cut GCP costs and monetize memories like ICloud, which they did. Even though I think it's a terribly run company I think it's a good investment now for the valuation.
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看好$SNAP因降本增效及AI收入，预计2026-27年有100%+涨幅。
$SNAP 在 7.64 美元时被极度低估。 -> Snapchat 通过转向 GCP 削减运营支出，并将其转化为收入。 -> Perplexity 交易在现有收入基础上增加了 4 亿美元股权/现金。 预计这些变化带来的净自由现金流(Net FCF)在 2026 年底至 2027 年初将达到 +6.3 亿美元（+1.9 亿运营云支出节省，+5.4 亿内存收入，-1 亿存储成本）。 CEO 出售 1000 万美元股票并不重要，尤其是当有 5 亿美元回购时。 $SNAP 不需要成为 $META，它永远不会是。 在 130 亿美元市值下，它只需要削减成本并改善来自其 15-20 亿美元季度收入（~55% 毛利率）的自由现金流。 那么即使用户增长放缓或轻微下降，它也将获得巨大的重估。 目前税务收割(tax harvesting)可能在未来两周结束。但如果你能等待整整一年，我有信心一旦计入 GCP 运营支出削减和 AI 收入流，Snap 将大幅跑赢任何指数。 进入 2026-2027 年，这里有 100%+ 的上行空间。
英文原文
$SNAP is incredibly undervalued at $7.64. -> Snapchat cutting opex costs with GCP and converting that to revenue. -> Perplexity deal adding $400m in equity/cash on top of existing revenue. Net FCF Is estimate from these changes is +$630M (+$190M opex cloud, memory revenue +540M, storage cogs -$100m) late 2026, early 2027. The CEO selling $10M in shares is not material, especially when there's $500M in buybacks. $SNAP doesn't need to be $META, it never will. At a $13B marketcap, it just needs to cut costs and improve FCF from its $1.5B-$2B quarterly revenue (~55% gross profit margins). Then it will be re-rated immensely, even if user counts slows or slightly drops. Right now tax harvesting is likely ending next two weeks. But if you can wait a whole year, I'm confident Snap will strongly outperform any index once we factor in GCP opex cuts and AI revenue streams. 100%%+ upside here going into 2026 - early 2027.
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博主披露核心及轮动持仓，并解释转向方向性评论的原因。
核心持仓是高确信度的多头：$BTC、$RKLB、$HOOD、$NBIS、$ALAB、$TSM。可能将 $LITE 和 $CRCL 移入上述核心多头组合，但它们是我正在建仓的新头寸。然后是短期至中期混合持仓，如 $SNAP、$CIFR、$RDDT、$SMCI、$HIMS、$TE、$LTC、$KRUS、AMKR、$LITE、$FLY、$WLAC、$META、$AMZN、$TTD 以及现在的 $AAOI 等。我在短期至中期持仓之间进行大量轮动。我以前发布更多关于日内交易的内容，但最终在这里获得了太多粉丝，所以想转向方向性评论。发布头寸更新很难，因为我喜欢解释我这样做的原因！我记得在 $IREN 约 50-60 美元时卖出，结果在接下来的三周里收到了一堆恶评 lol
英文原文
Core portfolio is high conviction longs: $BTC, $RKLB, $HOOD, $NBIS, $ALAB, $TSM Probably moving $LITE and $CRCL to the core long port above, but they’re newer positions that I’m building up. Then short-mid term mix like $SNAP, $CIFR, $RDDT, $SMCI, $HIMS, $TE, $LTC, $KRUS, AMKR, $LITE, $FLY, $WLAC, $META, $AMZN, $TTD, and now $AAOI etc. I rotate between short-medium term holds A LOT. I used to post more day trading stuff but I ended up getting too many followers here, so wanted to switch to directional commentary. It’s hard to post position updates because I like to explain why I do things! I remember selling $IREN around $50-$60 or something and just got a bunch of hate comments for the next three weeks lol
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看好AAOI中期潜力，因ASIC生态关键地位及美国制造优势，但暂小仓位以控风险。
是的，我非常非常喜欢 $LITE，但它的高估值溢价已经被市场充分定价。 我仅在 $AAOI 上持有相对较小的仓位，主要是出于执行风险的考虑：万一超大规模云厂商取消采购订单，或者面临捷普(Jabil)的竞争。 话虽如此，它目前被市场当作一家小型组件制造商来定价，但实际上它受益于微软(Microsoft) Maia 和亚马逊(Amazon) Trainium 的 AI 芯片量产，且“美国制造”是其强劲驱动力，因为它在超大规模云厂商的专用集成电路(ASIC)生态系统中扮演着关键角色。 这只是一项基于定性分析的投资，依据诸如 30-35% 的毛利率等粗略估算，以及假设其因 2026 年超大规模云厂商的放量而超越市场预期。 不过，其市值足够小，足以让我将其作为中期投资标的。
英文原文
Yeah I really, really like $LITE but it’s already priced in with a premium. I only have relatively small positions in $AAOI though just because of execution risk in case a hyperscaler drops purchase orders + competition from Jabil. That being said it’s priced as a small cap component manufacturer but has AI $MSFT Maia $AMZN trainium ramp and made in America as a great driver since it plays a critical part in the hyperscaler ASIC ecosystem. This is just a qualitative investment, off rough estimates like 30-35% margins and assumptions of beating projections due to hyperscaler ramp in 2026. The marketcap is small enough to make me an investor for medium term though.
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解析Mag7 ASIC供应链，看好$AAOI因$MSFT散热互连修复及$AMZN订单带来的增长。
不客气！如果我们看Mag7的ASIC，$GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood的供应商在$META交易后曾有一波上涨。 $AMZN Trainium即将像$GOOGL那样开始放量，近期超大规模云厂商$AAOI的订单很可能来自他们。 $AAOI的超额收益逻辑在于：$MSFT Maia 200的订单更多是研发支出，且他们推迟了路线图（可能由于散热和互连问题，例如连接10万颗芯片而不熔化），标准线缆无法用于Maia 200。 但这对$AAOI是利好，因为$MSFT很可能使用他们来解决这一问题，且所有这些ASIC支出将发生在2026-2027年，加上远期收入指引的大幅超预期。 但$AMZN提供了约40亿美元的安全垫以降低风险。
英文原文
NP! If we look at mag7 ASICs, $GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood suppliers had a run after the $META deal. $AMZN Trainium is going to ramp up soon like $GOOGL and the recent hyperscaler $AAOI order was likely from them. The alpha for $AAOI is that $MSFT Maia 200 orders were more of R&D spend and they delayed their roadmap (likely due to thermal and interconnect issues eg. 100,000 chips to connect without melting) and standard cabling wasn't working for Maia 200. But this is bullish for $AAOI since $MSFT likely uses them for this fix and all of this ASIC spend will be occur in 2026-2027 + huge beat on forward revenue projections. But $AMZN is providing the nice $4B floor for de-risking.
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分析AAOI依赖Mag7的垂直整合优势，已建仓并看好LITE。
我原本在研究一篇来自 Semianalysis 的文章中关于 $AMZN Trainium 基准测试以及亚马逊供应链的内容。鉴于一些朋友（如 @yianisz）之前曾对此发帖讨论，我决定深入挖掘。亚马逊在扩大 Trainium/Inferentia 集群时提供了约 40 亿美元的支出作为后盾，加上 $MSFT 在 ASIC 集群上的投入，随着行业向 800G 升级，我们很可能会看到更多超大规模云厂商客户。对于一家市值 25 亿美元的公司来说，如此依赖 Mag7 的情况实属罕见 lol。下行风险与积极因素并存：由于激光器在德克萨斯州内置生产，该公司实现了垂直整合（更高利润率）。我看好未来巨大的量增需求，但：关键在于执行，他们必须在不搞砸的情况下建成 800G/1.6T 光收发器。我已经全仓持有 $AAOI，出于风险管理考虑，仓位规模相对较小适中（毕竟它仍是 25 亿市值的小盘股）。我依然更看好 $LITE，但鉴于其本月已上涨 46%，很难进行补仓。
英文原文
I was actually looking into $AMZN Trainium benchmarks from a semianalysis post and at Amazon's supply chain. And some friends like @yianisz post about it earlier, so I decided to look deeper at it. But it has ~$4B spend from $AMZN as a backstop as they ramp up Trainium/Inferentia clusters, spend from $MSFT ASIC clusters, and we'll likely see more hyperscaler clients as the industry moves to 800g ramp. Mag7 dependency is incredibly rare coming from a $2.5B marketcap company lol. Downside + positive: Is vertically integrated (higher-margins), since it's lasers are builtin Texas. I see just incredible volume demand, moving forward but: the whole name of the game is execution since they actually have to build out the 800G/1.6T transceivers without messing up. I'm fully invested already in $AAOI already with relatively small-moderate position sizing for risk management (it's still a small cap with $2.5B MC). I still like $LITE a lot more, but a bit hard to cost average up on that when it's up 46% this month.
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作者认为因拥有直接大客户及更低估值，$AAOI 优于 $POET。
我研究过 $POET，但相比 $AAOI 我更喜欢后者，因为 AAOI 已经拥有 $MSFT 和 $AMZN 等直接超大规模客户(hyperscaler customers)。$POET 旗下的 Celestial 已被 $MRVL 收购，Celestial 使用 Poet 的中介层(interposer)来连接 TPU/Trainium，而 Marvell 将其出售给超大规模客户。但这并不等同于通过直接来自 $AMZN 和 $MSFT 的大批量订单以及类似 Amazon 与 $ALAB 的股权投资协议来实现的“几步之遥”的去风险(de-risking)。Amazon 在 $AAOI 中拥有类似 $ALAB 的财务激励，但 Astera 已经是家市值 300 亿美元的公司，而 AAOI 的市值仅为 25 亿美元。
英文原文
I've looked into $POET but didn't like it as much compared to $AAOI given AAOI already has direct hyperscaler customers with $MSFT and $AMZN. $POET had Celestial that got acquired $MRVL, where Celestial used poet’s interposer to connect tpus/trainium, and Marvell sells that to hyperscalers. But it's not quite the same de-risking few hops away as direct massive volume orders from $AMZN and $MSFT and equity agreements that Amazon has like they did with $ALAB. Amazon has a financial incentive in $AAOI like $ALAB, but Astera is already a $30B company, while AAOI is a $2.5B MC.
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看好$AAOI，因其在AI光互联中的核心地位及美国本土制造优势，认为其被严重低估。
我买入 $ALAB、$NBIS、$TSM 和 $LITE，是因为“七巨头”(Mag7) 的收入正流向这些公司。 $LITE 的独特之处在于其在 GOOGL TPU v7、AMZN Trainium v3/4 和 NVDA Blackwell 中的角色。 但我发现了一个新标的。 一家市值低于 30 亿美元的小盘股，符合我的投资逻辑： 名称 - $AAOI 一家小型光子学玩家，也是我持仓的两家光子学公司之一： 1. Lumentum ($LITE) 在每一款芯片的部署/爬坡中都占据独特地位，因为其光电路交换(Optical Circuit Switching) 技术被用于 Blackwell、Trainium 和 Ironwood，作为一种“横向扩展”(scale-across) 型技术。 无论超大规模云厂商选择 ASIC 还是 GPU，$LITE 都能胜出，因为它处于核心位置。 2. Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI) 更多涉及“纵向扩展”(scale-out) 连接，针对 Trainium、Maia 等定制 ASIC 集群，通过 400G 和 800G 光缆及光收发器实现。 鉴于 $AAOI 在 AWS（Trainium 的大客户）和 MSFT Maia ASIC 中的角色，它也能无论何种情况都胜出。 行业正经历由向 800G 速度迁移驱动的“超级周期”，而 AAOI 正处于中心位置。 此外，AAOI 具有独特的地缘政治角度： 美国优先。 与许多无晶圆厂(fabless)并将生产外包到台湾的公司不同，Applied Optoelectronics 在德克萨斯州自行制造激光器。 美国超大规模云厂商（特别是 Amazon 和 Microsoft）正在积极减少对关键基础设施中国供应链的依赖，这有助于 AAOI 实现本土激光器制造。 我们还看到一家“主要超大规模云厂商”对其 800G 数据中心光收发器下达了另一笔巨额订单。 但 AAOI 的交易表现像一家困境公司；然而，其亚马逊权证协议隐含的收入为 2025 年 Q4 和 2026 财年的 800G 爬坡创造了非对称的风险/回报特征。鉴于其在 AI 建设中的角色及现有的超大规模云厂商合同，AAOI 似乎结构性被低估。 市场终于开始重估 $LITE，但感觉 $AAOI 才刚刚开始，鉴于其小市值以及作为超大规模云厂商 ASIC 集群关键玩家和“美国制造”的独特角度。 市场目前正在对光子学玩家进行大幅重估并赋予高溢价，但 AAOI 今年仅上涨 2.20%，似乎蓄势待发。
英文原文
I entered $ALAB, $NBIS, $TSM, and $LITE because of Mag7 funneling revenue numbers into them. Lite uniquely because of its role in GOOGL TPU v7, AMZN Trainium v3/4, and NVDA Blackwell. But there's a new one I found out about. A small cap <$3B player that fits the thesis: Name - $AAOI A small cap photonics player, and one of the two photonics players I'm invested in: 1. Lumentum is uniquely positioned in every single supply chip deployment/ramp, as the Optical Circuit Switching technology is used in Blackwell, Trainium, and Ironwood as a "scale-across" type technology. $LITE wins no matter what. Hyperscaler ASIC vs. GPU as it's in the center of it all. 2. Applied Optoelectronics is more of the "scale-out" connectivity, for custom ASIC clusters like Trainium, Maia through 400G and 800G optical cables and transceivers. $AAOI wins no matter what as well given its role with AWS as a whale client for Trainium, and with MSFT Maia ASICs. The industry is going through a "supercycle" driven by the migration to 800G speeds and AAOI is in the center of it. On top of that, AAOI plays unique geopolitical angle, America first. Unlike many other companies that are fabless and export production elsewhere to Taiwan, Applied Optoelectronics makes their own lasers in Texas. US hyperscalers (specifically Amazon and Microsoft) are aggressively reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains for critical infrastructure and that helps AAOI’s ability to manufacture lasers at home. And we've seen another huge volume order from a "major hyperscaler" on its 800G data center transceivers. But AAOI trades like a distressed company; however, the implied revenue of its Amazon warrant agreement creates an asymmetric risk/reward profile on its 800G ramp in Q4 2025 and FY2026. AAOI seems structurally undervalued, given its role in the AI buildout and existing hyperscaler contracts. The markets are finally catching up to LITE, but it feels $AAOI is yet to begin, given its small market cap size but unique angle of a critical player to hyperscaler ASIC clusters and Made in America. The market is currently re-rating heavily with photonics players and assigning a heavy premium, yet AAOI is only up 2.20% this year and seems like it's just about to begin.
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OpenAI优势减弱，AI行业多极化，基本面未受损公司现买入机会
OpenAI 此前是明确的领导者。现在，Gemini 3.0 在图像生成方面超越了它，Claude Opus 4.5 在编码方面超越了它。以此类推。看起来在获得先发优势后，ChatGPT 似乎无法被颠覆。但现在从 Similarweb 数据我们可以看到，Gemini 的受欢迎程度相对于 ChatGPT 正在增长。而且我相信由于使用内部张量处理单元(TPU)进行推理，它们的成本效益也更高。OpenAI 试图通过要求 Mag7 和政府为其合同承诺提供担保，使整个行业依赖它，以便大家同船沉没，但这最终失败了。整个 AI 行业不仅仅是 OpenAI，随着我们看到更多的代理(Agentic)和机器人应用，我们很可能会看到 Anthropic、Google、XAI 和其他供应商的广泛大型语言模型(LLM)和日益增长的算力使用。但目前我们看到这种传染效应从 OpenAI 蔓延到该领域的几家公司 $ORCL、$CRWV，可能还有 $AMD 以及其他几跳远的公司，它们正在为承诺的资本支出构建产能。但这正在拉垮那些与 OpenAI 隔离（就股价而言）的其他公司，因此如果基本面没有受到实质性影响，这就是一个买入机会。
英文原文
OpenAI was the clear leader before. Now, Gemini 3.0 surpasses it in image generation. Claude Opus 4.5 surpasses it in coding. Can go down the line. It looked like ChatGPT couldn’t be disrupted after they got first movers advantage. Now from similarweb data we can see popularity with Gemini growing vs ChatGPT. And im sure they’re a lot more cost effective as well using in house TPUs for inference. OpenAI tried making the whole industry dependent on it, by asking Mag7 + government to backstop their contract promises so they all go down the ship together but that ended up flopping. AI industry as a whole is not OpenAI, we’ll likely see widespread LLM + growing compute usage from Anthropic, Google, XAi and other vendors as we see more agentic + robotics applications next. But right now we’re seeing contagion spread from OpenAI to several companies in the sector $ORCL, $CRWV, maybe $AMD and others few hops away that were building out capacity for their promise capex spend. But it’s taking down other companies isolated from OpenAI (in terms of stock price), which is why it’s a buying opportunity if fundamentals aren’t too materially impacted.
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对比NBIS与CRWV债务风险，指出市场忽视个体差异盲目联动。
是的，这是个很好的例子。如果你查看 $NBIS 和 $IREN 的可转债发行，由于 $MSFT（Magnificent 7）是它们共同的积压订单，两者的利率都在1-2.5%左右。许多新云厂商受到 OpenAI 的影响，甚至像 $APLD 这样通过 $CRWV（主要租户）间接关联两跳的公司，也不得不以9.25%的利率出售垃圾债券。$NBIS 每年支付约7300万美元利息，而 $CRWV 支付超过13亿美元。但市场似乎因 OpenAI 的传染效应而整体联动该板块，未能区分那些被隔离的个别公司。利息债务、风险和客户锚点的差异是巨大的。
英文原文
Yep that’s a good example. If you look at convertible offerings for $NBIS and $IREN both their interest rates were 1-2.5% roughly because $MSFT (mag7) is their shared backlog. A lot of Neoclouds are affected by OpenAi though and even by two hops like $APLD from $CRWV(main tenant), which had to sell junk bonds at 9.25%. $NBIS is paying ~$73m/year from interest, while $CRWV is paying upwards of $1.3B. But the market seems to move the whole sector together from OpenAI contagion without discerning individual companies that are isolated. The difference in interest debt, risk, and customer anchors is massive.
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OpenAI 恐慌引发 AI 供应链板块抛售，独立标的现买入机会。
确实如此。其中很大一部分源于对 OpenAI 的担忧。例如，OpenAI 是 $CRWV 的锚定租户之一；$ALPD 出售垃圾债 -> 信贷收紧。随后板块抛售。显然这是多因素的（例如，套息交易平仓引发的更广泛抛售），ATM 增发/可转换票据 + 部分公司进一步稀释 -> 市场风险偏好下降。但再次强调，$ALPD 和 $CORZ 与 $CRWV 挂钩，而后者与 OpenAI 挂钩。$CIFR、$WULF 通过 Fluidstack 作为锚定方与 $GOOGL 挂钩。$NBIS 为 $MSFT 和 $META 进行建设。这是一个极其微妙的板块，但像 OpenAI 引发的全板块抛售/恐慌也为更独立的玩家提供了买入机会。
英文原文
They did. A large part of it was OpenAI fears. eg. OpenAI -> one of $CRWV anchor tenant. $ALPD selling junk bonds -> credit tightening. Sector selloff after. Obviously it's multifacted (eg. broader selloff from carry trade unwind), ATM offerings/convertible notes + more dilution for some -> market risk off. But again, $ALPD + $CORZ are linked to $CRWV which are linked to OpenAI. $CIFR, $WULF -> $GOOGL through Fluidstack as anchor. $NBIS -> Buildout for $MSFT and $META. It's an extremely nuanced sector, but whol sector selloff/fears like OpenAI presents a buying opportunity too for the more isolated players.
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Neocloud龙头承压，但获超大规模云商背书的个股是理想买点。
我预计Neocloud股票今天会表现不佳，因为$ORCL/$CRWV是“板块龙头”。 但这将是该板块个股的理想买入机会： 因为市场忽略了$ORCL/$CRWV高负债扩张的主要交易对手是OpenAI这一细微差别。 但该板块的其他公司如$NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF则由AAA评级的超大规模云服务商（$META/$META/$GOOGL/$AMZN）的现金牛业务提供背书。
英文原文
I expect a bad day for Neocloud stocks just because $ORCL / $CRWV are "sector leaders". But this would be an ideal buying opportunity for individual companies in the sector: Due to the market missing the nuance that $ORCL / $CRWV's debt-filled buildout is for OpenAI as the main counterparty. But other companies in the sector like $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF are backstopped by AAA-rated Hyperscaler ( $META / $META / $GOOGL / $AMZN) cash cows.
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板块错杀提供买入机会，NBIS/IREN无交易对手风险且利用率高。
超额收益(alpha)在于了解哪些类型的合同能让人免受当前恐惧的影响，以及行业内哪些个别组件存在定价错误。$MSFT、$META 等公司的算力容量合同是“照付不议”(take or pay)的。 $NBIS、$IREN 等公司由于与“七巨头”(Mag7)（拥有无限资产负债表）签订5年期合同，实际上消除了**交易对手风险**(counterparty risk)。 然而，它们下跌的原因不同（$NBIS 因2500万股的自动行使机制(ATM)发行；$IREN 因市场担忧其为将剩余3GW的AI云容量管道变现而进行稀释，而非用于数据中心托管(colocation)）。 然而，主要的普遍担忧是 $ORCL、$CRWV 面临来自 OpenAI 破产+无力支付的严重交易对手风险，但由于它们是两大主要玩家，这引发了整个板块的算法抛售。 但这种板块抛售为一些未受影响（除信贷收紧外）/被误解的公司提供了良好的买入机会。 此外，AI是一个增长的市场，目前可能存在算力紧张（例如 anthropic、gemini 和其他模型），但 $NBIS、$IREN 在超大规模云服务商合同上的利用率基本为100%。 显然，如果存在过度建设，可能会导致利润率压缩，但我们目前尚未看到这种情况。5年后会发生什么，我不知道。
英文原文
The alpha is knowing what types of contracts lead to isolation from current fears and where there's mispricing on individual components in the sector. Compute capacity contracts are take or pay for $MSFT, $META, and others. Companies like $NBIS, $IREN and others are effectively de-risked due to **no counterparty risk** from Mag7 (infinite balance sheets) and 5 Year contracts. However, their drops were different reasons ( $NBIS, 25M share ATM), $IREN fears over dilution for monetizing their rest of the 3 GW capacity pipeline for AI Cloud instead of colo. However, the main overarching fear was that $ORCL, $CRWV faces severe counterparty risk from OpenAI insolvency + inability to pay, but this causes a sector algorithmic selloff because they're the two largest players. But this sector sell-off is a good buying opportunity for some of the unaffected (minus credit tightening) / misunderstood companies. Also AI is a growing market, and there's likely compute strain for the time being (eg. anthropic, gemini, and other models) but it's basically 100% utilization for hyperscaler contracts on $NBIS, $IREN. Obviously if there's overbuild, there's probably margin compression but we're not seeing that right now. What happens after 5 years I don't know.
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AI数据中心客户资金差异大，市场误判导致板块错配机会。
AI 数据中心(AI DC)领域极其微妙。 $ORCL 正基于租户 OpenAI 的积压订单/信用状况，通过债务建设产能。 OpenAI 目前无力履行其义务，且获得资金的可能性越来越小。 $CIFR 正为 $GOOGL、$AMZN 建设产能。 谷歌/亚马逊拥有资金，且这些合同已锁定。 $NBIS 正为 $META、$MSFT 建设产能。 微软/Meta 拥有资金，且这些产能合同已锁定。 但市场目前将所有积压订单都视为来自 OpenAI（不可持续的建设），因此这是买入该板块个别组件错定价的好机会。
英文原文
The AI DC sector is extremely nuanced. $ORCL is building capacity from debt based on backlog/credit worthiness of OpenAI which is the tenant. OpenAI does not have the funds at the moment to fulfill its obligations and it's looking less likely to get it. $CIFR is building out for $GOOGL, $AMZN. Google/Amazon does have the funds and these contracts are locked in. $NBIS is building out for $META, $MSFT. Microsoft/Meta does have the funds and these contracts are locked in for capacity. But the market is currently treating all the backlog like it comes from OpenAI (unsustainable build) which is why it's a good opportunity to buy into mispricing of individual components of the sector.
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甲骨文因OpenAI信用风险大跌，新云板块错杀，建议买入非OpenAI依赖标的。
甲骨文($ORCL)的财报结果及其对$NBIS和$IREN等“新云(Neocloud)”板块的影响： 甲骨文财报EPS超预期且积压订单创纪录，但盘后仍下跌12%。 甲骨文自9月11日高点以来已下跌39.8%，并拖累了整个板块。 原因如下： 抛售不仅是对营收轻微不及预期的反应，更是算法做空和投资者对AI资本支出(Capex)周期可持续性，以及该板块主要租户OpenAI偿债能力的担忧。 甲骨文宣布2026年资本支出增加150亿美元至近500亿美元，这与据报道的与OpenAI的3000亿美元合作伙伴关系密不可分。 最初，OpenAI作为前沿大语言模型(LLM)，向甲骨文、Coreweave等承诺了诱人的资本支出，推动了板块的初步重估。 然而，随着超过1万亿美元的债务义务以及来自Anthropic、Gemini、XAI等的竞争加剧，市场严重怀疑甲骨文、Coreweave等是否为一家无法通过经营性现金流履行义务的租户建设基础设施。 市场有效发出了信号：甲骨文正在为无法履行承诺的OpenAI提供不可持续的债务融资“供应商融资(Vendor Financing)”。 因此，下跌是理性的：抛售由信用风险和资本密集度的理性重估驱动。 OpenAI资金担忧是合理的：OpenAI缺乏资金履行合同的假设，由其收入(130亿美元)与义务(600亿美元/年)之间的巨大错配所支持。 信用担忧是真实的：甲骨文信用违约互换(CDS)利差的扩大表明“信用事件”降级或违约的概率上升。 此外，我们看到这在“新云”板块中引发了传染效应：$NBIS从140美元跌至90美元区间，$IREN从80美元跌至40美元区间，$CIFR从20多美元跌至17美元区间。 但这对于$WULF、$NBIS、$IREN等新云公司是否是买入机会？ 是的。 这对$ORCL是否是好的买入机会？ 不是。 前瞻展望： $ORCL(大部分)和$CRWV(25%积压订单)是两大主要依赖OpenAI的玩家，这一叙事可能因OpenAI的融资活动而瞬间反转(+30%以上波动)。 如果OpenAI在2026年以高估值进行超额认购的IPO，且其新GPT模型击败Gemini/Claude，情况可能改变。 然而，许多其他玩家与OpenAI隔离。新云板块的原始逻辑是Mag7从其现金牛业务(Azure, AWS, GCP)向下漏斗资金至：$NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF等。 但随着最大玩家($ORCL, $CRWV)下跌，算法交易拖累了整个板块。 如果单独看公司，$CIFR和$WULF由$GOOGL背书，$IREN/$NBIS由$MSFT资助。 这些是来自超大规模云厂商/Mag7的锁定合同积压，而非OpenAI。 这种因误解风险而导致的非理性抛售，为新云板块提供了绝佳的买入机会，但不包括与OpenAI绑定的$ORCL和$CRWV。
英文原文
Oracle [ $ORCL ] earning results and its effect on the neocloud sector like $NBIS & $IREN: Oracle reported earnings with a beat on EPS and a record backlog but, dropped 12% after hours. Oracle is down 39.8% from September 11th highs and brought down the sector with it. Here's why: The sell-off was not merely a reaction to marginal revenue miss, but both an algorithmic short and investor selloff on the sustainability of the AI capex cycle and the creditworthiness of the sector's primary tenant: OpenAI. Oracle's announcement of a $15 billion increase in 2026 capital spending to nearly $50 billion was inextricably linked to a reported $300 billion partnership with OpenAI. Originally, OpenAI was the frontier LLM, with promising capex promises to Oracle, Coreweave and others, contributing to the initial repricing of the sector. However, with over $1t+ in obligations and increasing competition from Anthropic, Gemini, XAI, and others, the markets have serious doubts on whether Oracle, Coreweave, and others are building for a tenant that cannot currently fund its obligations from operating cash flow. WE're seeing the market effectively signaling that the market Oracle is creating an unsustainable debt-funded "vendor financing" for OpenAI, which cannot fulfill its promises. So, the drop was rational: The sell-off was driven by a rational repricing of credit risk and capital intensity. OpenAI Funding Fear is Valid: The hypothesis that OpenAI lacks the funds to honor its contracts is supported by a glaring mismatch between its revenue ($13B) and its obligations ($60B/year). Credit Fears are Real: The widening of Oracle's CDS spreads sees a rising probability of a "credit event" downgrade or default. Furthermore, we're seeing this trigger a contagion effect across the "Neocloud" sector from $NBIS dropping from $140 to $90s, $IREN dropping $80 to $40s, $CIFR dropping from $24s to $17s. But is this a buying opportunity for Neoclouds like $WULF, $NBIS, $IREN, and others? Yes. Is this a good buying opportunity for $ORCL? No. Forward Outlook: $ORCL (large portion) , $CRWV (25% backlog) are the two players largely dependent on OpenAI and this narrative can flip in an instant (+30%+ change) depending on capital raising activity from OpenAI. If OpenAI files for an oversubscribed IPO in 2026 at high valuations and it's new GPT models beats out Gemini/Claude, we can see this change. However, many other players are isolated from OpenAI. The original thesis of the Neocloud sector was Mag7 capex funndel from their cash cows segments (Azure, AWS, GCP) down into: $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF, and others. But as the largest players ( $ORCL, $CRWV) fall, these algorithmically bring down the whole sector. If you look at the companies individually, companies like $CIFR and $WULF are being backstopped by $GOOGL, and $IREN / $NBIS are funded by $MSFT. These are locked in contract backlogs from Hyperscalers/Mag7, not OpenAI. This irrational selloff due to misunderstanding of risks presents an amazing buying opportunity for the Necoloud sector, but not companies tied to OpenAI like $ORCL and $CRWV.
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因OpenAI资金风险回避ORCL，看好其他新云厂商回调机会
我一直将 $ORCL 列为回避名单，这次财报导致其下跌11%正是原因所在。 我需要更多时间深入研究，但令人担忧的不仅仅是资本支出(capex)，很大一部分是因为这些支出是为 OpenAI 服务的（而 OpenAI 没有足够的资金来覆盖积压订单）。 其他新云厂商(neoclouds)如 $NBIS 没有这个问题，因为它们的积压订单来自确实有钱的 $MSFT。超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)的资本支出漏斗才是新云厂商核心逻辑的核心，而不是像甲骨文那样依赖/受制于 OpenAI。 因此，其他新云厂商随之抛售带来的下跌提供了一个良好的机会。
英文原文
I’ve been putting $ORCL on avoid and this earnings was the reason why on the 11% drop. I need more time to look into it but it’s not just capex spend that’s worrying, a large part of it is because of OpenAi (which doesn’t have the funding for the backlog) that a lot of the spend is for. Other neoclouds like $NBIS don’t have this problem because their backlog is from $MSFT that actually have the money. And hyperscaler capex funnel was the core Neocloud thesis, not levered/contingency on OpenAi which oracle faces. So selloff on other Neoclouds that got brought down with it presents a good opportunity
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分析NBIS受ATM及空头压制，但基本面强劲且机构增持，高波动需耐心持有。
就我个人对 $NBIS 的观察来看，其表现主要受定向增发(ATM)抛压、板块拖累、短期空头以及19日到期的巨额未平仓合约影响。例如，$CRWV 昨日上涨5.13%，而 $NBIS 同日下跌3.91%，我认为这归因于空头或ATM操作。有些令人遗憾，尽管 $NBIS 是降息的最大受益者（新云(neocloud)板块），但今天下跌2%，而其他散户宠儿如 $RKLB 却上涨8%+。价格走势有时会让你自我怀疑，但即使有10%的稀释，也改变不了你提到的事实：Nebius 2026年底年化经常性收入(ARR)中值为80亿美元，与Avride推出了Robotaxis，与 $META 达成30亿美元交易，Clickhouse增长极快，另外两家子公司同比增长100%，其中Toloka受益于 $META 的Scale收购。机构持股比例目前可能接近52%（上月彭博终端显示50%多，MSCI调整前），较上季度的30%多高，机构确实在从投降的散户手中收购股份。此时持有很痛苦，但请记住作为市场上最高贝塔(beta)股票之一，它在一周内可能波动35%。（在2-3周内从100美元到140美元到95美元再到130美元）。
英文原文
So from what I've seen personally with $NBIS, it's largely ATM overhang + sector drag + short term shorts, and large amounts of open interest expiring on the 19th. For example, $CRWV was up 5.13% yesterday, while $NBIS was down 3.91% same day, and I'd attribute that to either shorts/ATMs. It's a little unfortunate, even as the largest beneficiary of rate cuts (neocloud sector), $NBIS is down 2% today while other retail favorites like $RKLB are up 8%+. Price action makes you doubt yourself sometimes, but even with 10% dilution, it doesn't really change the fact as you mentioned Nebius has $8B midpoint ARR EOY 2026, they launched Robotaxis with Avride, $META $3B deal, Clickhouse is growing incredibly fast, and their other two subsidaries are growing 100% Y/Y with Toloka benefiting from $META Scale acquisition. Institutional ownership is now probably closer to 52%(bloomberg terminal 50's last month pre msci) from high 30's last quarter and institutions are definitely acquiring shares from retail capitulating. Painful hold at this point, but keep in mind it can move 35% on a random week as one of the highest beta stocks in the market. (went from $100 to $140 to $95 to $130 in the span of 2-3 weeks).
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美联储降息后发布12月11日个股评级，重点推荐AI基建、稳定币及超跌成长股。
美联储降息25个基点后。 12月11日评级： 强烈买入： $CRCL $COIN $AMKR $CRDO $IBIT $MSTR $AMZN $SMCI $TSM $TSSI SK海力士 $SNAP 三星电子 $ALAB $META $NBIS $CIFR 买入： $KRUS $AVGO $NFLX $KRKNF $HIMS $FLY $OSS $TE $FLNC $LITE $COHR $RKLB $TTD $NVDA $CLS $GOOGL $RDDT $WULF $CRWV $IREN $GLXY $WLAC $MPWR 回避 $RGTI $PLTR $WMT $ETH $BMNR $TSLA $IONQ $ORCL $SLNH $OKLO 解释： 今天美联储如期降息25个基点。这通常会引导流动性进入成长股，并利好那些债务使用最多（以更低利率再融资）的中小盘股，例如像$NBIS和$CIFR这样的新云(Neoclouds)。 然而，这也恰逢日本加息，可能导致去年重新加载的套息交易(Carry Trade)平仓；但这是短期的，基本面>短期波动。 强烈买入评级： Circle - 大幅下跌主要由于IPO后的股份解禁。然而，降息损害了其商业模式~利息收入减少20%。 话虽如此，我们看到稳定币市场大幅增长，我个人看到大量早期风险投资（a16z, Sequoia等）涌入与稳定币相关的公司，如新银行(Neobanks)。我们应该看到所有这些都流入更多的USDC铸造，铸造量将抵消降息的影响。 Coinbase - 与Circle相同，他们在USDC方面有50%的收入分成。然而，他们还有自己的交易所，而且降息通常有助于风险资产如加密货币（尤其是比特币跌破9万美元后）。 Amkor - 受益于半导体/晶圆厂向美国制造的转移。 Credo - 过去5天下跌-16%，今天下跌8%。很好的恢复性买入，不认为数据中心建设的数据连接需求会下降。 ALAB - 与CRDO相同的论点 IBIT (比特币) - 始终是长线好标的，尤其是在$93K时 Microstrategy (MSTR) - 受益于比特币复苏，并分析了他们是否会爆仓。TLDR：不会，在需要支付利息之前（约2029年），我们还有另一次比特币减半事件。 Amazon - 今年一动不动。基本面改善，年底有助于电商部门。定制芯片、星座、Robotaxi，他们基本上什么都做，而市场尚未真正奖励他们的努力。只是感觉我们可能会在接下来的2个月看到它跑赢大盘。 SMCI - 之前发过关于这个的论点帖，惊人的恢复性买入。它因将收入积压转移到下一季度而在财报后下跌，但市场没有定价他们未来收入同比增长60%但交易在~11倍远期市盈率的事实。 TSM - 整个AI/半导体建设的骨干。我们看到关于TPU与GPU的争论，但TSM不在乎。 TSSI - 与SMCI相同的论点，依附于Dell，作为一个代理，我们看到来自IREN等供应商和其他在2026年建设数据中心的新云的巨大积压，我们应该看到这在明年实现。 SK海力士 - 显然有关于在美国市场上市升级的传闻，这应该提振流动性。此外，内存市场因AI建设而需求极高。 Snapchat - 只是被低估。$13B市值，~1B+季度收入。NA DAU较上季度下降3%，但不要为了成为下一个FB而买入。他们只需要削减GCP成本并货币化记忆功能（他们已经做了），我们应该看到明年重新评级100%+，特别是随着Perplixty交易带来的$400m+额外收入/股权。 三星电子 - 人们认为这也是内存，因为它构成了他们利润的很大一部分，但我将其视为潜在的下一个现金牛晶圆厂玩法，如TSM，作为第二大玩家吸收任何最大产能溢出。 META - 一次性税收抛售，超卖。现在我们终于看到他们创建前沿模型（Avacado，如果我记得没错的话）。所以他们可以货币化他们一直在花钱的llama开源llm努力。他们还削减了元宇宙努力，这应该是对盈利能力的巨大推动。 Nebius - 由于2500万股稀释导致短期拖累。ATM可能正在提供。话虽如此，一旦完成，由于来自其DC业务（7-9B ARR）及其4家市场未定价的子公司（同比增长100%+）的远期收入/增长，极度低估。 CIFR - 由于比特币价格（资产负债表上持有大量）导致短期下跌，但由于他们做托管(Colo)模式，不受GPU贬值争论的太大影响。此外由Google背书，并与Amazon有合同，因此从根本上降低了风险，是新云领域的顶级买入之一。 买入评级： 文字空间不够，所以给出更短的TLDR Kura Sushi - 波段交易，拉出5年图表，你会明白我的意思，每次它触底（大约现在）。这从未失败过！ Broadcom - 超大规模建设，与联发科一起对TPU至关重要 Netflix - 16%的下跌对于收购来说感觉有点不必要 KRKNF - 基本面增长良好，作为Andruil供应商的市场具有防御性。 HIMS - 股票回购计划，通常低于$40是很好的买入/波段交易。Zava收购未被定价，且仍在增长。 FLY - SpaceX $1.5T估值应该提振整个太空板块。这是2026年中型发射的玩法。 OSS - 之前对此进行过DD，潜在的Andruil供应商。否则，在这个市值下无论如何都有些低估。 TE - 少数Murican能源基础设施之一，太阳能。它可能比核能更商业化。 FLNC - 与AI建设+能源相同的论点 LITE - 现在相当过度延伸，不会追高。但长期受益于处于tpu ironwood + blackwell建设的中间。 COHR - 与Lite相同，但似乎是次要玩家。 RKLB - 可能是我最喜欢的长线。现在相当高估，但由于SpaceX的FOMO无法避免。 TTD - 之前的论点帖，仅基于远期收入数字，似乎是一个很好的恢复性玩法。 NVDA - TPU恐惧有点夸大，看看积压订单。 CLS - TPU v7生态系统买入 GOOGL - 他们像NVDA一样销售TPU，像Waymo一样增长Robotaxi市场，Gemini成功。全方位开火。 Reddit - 就像早期的Robinhood一样，只是一台印钞机。对RDDT通过FCF增长收购做了一些论点评论。否则，他们将留下来并受益于所有世代使用它（不像Snap那样早期） WULF - 类似于CIFR。重新评级可能会发生，取决于更多关于Anthropic建设的信息。 CRWV - 糟糕，糟糕的长线。良好的短期恢复性买入。 IREN - 如果他们继续购买GPU来做AI云，我不会把钱投进去，只是因为稀释。但他们可能会做托管，并且拥有大量的GW容量，所以仍然很有希望。 GLXY - 数据中心建设的受益者。 WLAC - 可能他们本月进行SPAC IPO。他们说Q4。 MPWR - TPU v7生态系统买入 回避 RGTI - 量子，没有基本面/收入支持 PLTR - 449.01B市值lol WMT - 他们每年增长4%的收入，但交易在40倍市盈率，这很疯狂。 ETH - 以太坊伟大的网络。然而，没有代币销毁，也没有收入流向代币持有者。糟糕的投资，伟大的开发者工具/生态系统。 BMNR - 以太坊代理。 TSLA - 有点脱离基本面。但这是对elon musk、大规模Robotaxi、机器人的赌注。我个人只是认为这过度承诺，但我们会看到。 IONQ - 量子，没有基本面/收入支持 ORCL - 大部分远期积压依赖于openai，如果openai在市场份额上输给claude/gemini，这使得事情极其不确定/有风险。话虽如此，现在是一个很好的恢复性买入，但长期来看有风险。 SLNH - 如果你想被他们的2.8gw管道稀释到虚无，这是要持有的股票。 OKLO - 没有像量子那样的基本面来支持目前的市值，这可能需要多年才能实现。
英文原文
Post-Fed Interest Rate 25BPS cut. December 11th ratings: Strong Buy: $CRCL $COIN $AMKR $CRDO $IBIT $MSTR $AMZN $SMCI $TSM $TSSI Sk Hynix $SNAP Samsung Electronics $ALAB $META $NBIS $CIFR Buy: $KRUS $AVGO $NFLX $KRKNF $HIMS $FLY $OSS $TE $FLNC $LITE $COHR $RKLB $TTD $NVDA $CLS $GOOGL $RDDT $WULF $CRWV $IREN $GLXY $WLAC $MPWR Avoid $RGTI $PLTR $WMT $ETH $BMNR $TSLA $IONQ $ORCL $SLNH $OKLO Explanations: Today fed cut interest rates 25BPS as expected. This usually funnel liquidity into growth stocks and benefits small-medium caps that use debt the most (refinance with lower interest rates), such as Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CIFR. However, this coincides with Japan hiking, which might lead to carry trade unwind from last year's reload; but this is short term, fundamentals > volatility short term. Strong Buy Ratings: Circle - Massive drop mainly due to share unlock post IPO. However, rate cuts hurt their business model ~20% revenue cut from interest. That being said, we're seeing a massive growth in the stablecoin market, and I'm personally seeing huge early venture capital funding (a16z, sequioa, etc). being poured into stablecoin related companies such as Neobanks. We should see all of this funnel into more USDC printing, and the printer outweigh rate cuts. Coinbase - Same as Circle, they have 50% revenue sharing in terms of USDC. However, they also have their exchange on top, and rate cuts generally help riskier assets such as crypto (especially post drop Bitcoin sub 90k) Amkor - Benefits from Made in America shift to semis/fab. Credo - Dropped -16% last 5 days, and 8% today. Great recovery buy, don't see connectivity demand dropping from DC buildout. ALAB - Same thesis as CRDO IBIT (Bitcoin) - Always a great long, especially so at $93K Microstrategy (MSTR) - Benefits from Bitcoin recovery and did an analysis whether they would get liquidated or not. TLDR: no, we have another bitcoin halving event before they need to pay off interest, which was around 2029. Amazon - Hasn't moved an inch all year. Fundamentals improving, EOY helps E-commerce division. Custom chips, constellations, robotaxis, they're basically doing everything and market hasn't really rewarded their effort yet. Just a feeling we might see this outperform next 2 months. SMCI - Did a thesis post on this earlier, amazing recovery buy. It dropped on earnings due to shifting revenue backlog to next quarter, but markets aren't pricing in the fact they're growing 60% Y/Y forward revenue but trading at ~11 forward p/e or so. TSM - Backbone of the whole AI/semi buildout. We're seeing arguments about TPU vs. GPU, but TSM doesn't care. TSSI - Same thesis with SMCI, piggybacks off of Dell, just as a proxy we're seeing massive backlog from vendors such as IREN, and other neoclouds building out DCs 2026, and we should see this come into fruition next year. Sk Hynix - Apparently there's been rumors about uplisting to US markets, which should be a boost to liquidity. Also memory markets is just incredibly high demand from AI buildout. Snapchat - Just undervalued. $13B marketcap, ~1B+ quarterly revenue. NA DAU dropped 3% from last quarter but don't buy this for being the next FB. All they need to do is cut GCP costs and monetize memories (which they did) and we should see this re-rate 100%+ next year, especially with $400m+ in added revenue/equity from the Perplixty deal Samsung Electronics - People think of this as memory as well because it makes up a large part of their profit, but i see this as a potential next cash cow foundry play like TSM, as the 2nd largest player to soak up any max capacity overflow. META - One time tax selloff, was oversold. Now we finally see them create a frontier model (Avacado) if i remember correctly. So they can monetize the llama open source llm efforts they've been just blowing money on. They also cut their metaverse efforts, which should be a huge boost in proftiability. Nebius - Short term drag due to 25m share dilution. ATM is likely being offered. That being said once this finishes, insanely undervalued due to forward revenue/growth from both its DC business (7-9B ARR), and its 4 subsidaries that the markets dont price in (growing 100%+ Y/Y) CIFR - Short term drop due to Bitcoin prices (holding a lot on balance sheet), but not really affected by GPU depreciation arguments since they do colo models. Also backstopped by google, and they have contracts with Amazon, so fundamentally disrisked and one of the top buys in neocloud secotr. Buy Ratings: Running out of text space so will give a shorter TLDR Kura Sushi - Swing trade zoom out 5 year chart and you'll see what I mean every time it bottoms (around now). This never fails! Broadcom - Hyperscaler buildout, critical to TPU alongside Mediatek Netflix - 16% drop feels a bit unwarranted for the acquisition KRKNF - Great growing fundamentals and defensible market as an andruil supplier. HIMS - Share buyback program, usually sub $40 great buy/swing trade. Zava acqusition not being priced in and it's still growing. FLY - SpaceX $1.5T valuation should boost up the whole space sector. This was a 2026 play for medium lift. OSS - DD on this earlier potential andruil supplier. Otherwise, kind of undervalued at this MC anyway. TE - One of the few Murican energy infra, Solar. It's likely more commercial than Nuclear. FLNC - Same thesis with AI buildout + energy LITE - Pretty overextended right now, wouldn't chase. But long term benefits from being in the middle of both tpu ironwood + blackwell buildout COHR - Same with Lite, but seems like a secondary player. RKLB - Probably my favorite long. Pretty overvalued right now but can't help it due to SpaceX fomo. TTD - Thesis post earlier, just based on forward revenue numbers, it seems like a great recovery play. NVDA - TPU fears are a bit overblown, just look at backlog. CLS - TPU v7 ecosystem buy GOOGL - They sell TPUs like NVDA, growing robotoaxis market like waymo, gemini succesful. Just firing on all fronts. Reddit - Just a money printer like early day Robinhood. Made some thesis comments about RDDT growing in terms of acquisitions from FCF. Otherwise, they're here to stay and benefits from all gens using it (unlike snap which is earlier) WULF - Similar to CIFR. Rerating might happen depending on more info about the Anthropic buildout. CRWV - Terrible, terrible long. Good short term recovery buy. IREN - I would not put money into this if they kept buying GPUs to do AI cloud just due to dilution. but they might do colo and they have an immense amount of GW capacity so it's still promising. GLXY - Beneficary of DC Buildout. WLAC - Possible that they're SPAC ipoing this month. They did say Q4. MPWR - TPU v7 ecosystem buy Avoid RGTI - Quantum, no fundamentals/revenue to back it up PLTR - 449.01B market cap lol WMT - They're growing like 4% revenue a year, but trading at 40 p/e which is insane. ETH - Ethereum great network. However, there's no token burn and none of the revenue goes to token holders. Terrible investment, great developer tooling/ecosystem. BMNR - Ethereum proxy. TSLA - Kind of detached from fundamentals. But it's a bet on elon musk, robotaxis at scale, robotics. I personally just see this as overpromising, but we'll see. IONQ -Quantum, no fundamentals/revenue to back it up ORCL - Most of forward backlog is dependent on openai, which makes things incredibly uncertain/risky if openai falls to claude/gemini in market share. That being said, it's a good recovery buy right now, but long term it's risky. SLNH - This is the stock to be in if you want diluted to oblivion on their 2.8gw pipeline. OKLO - no fundamentals like quantum to back up mc at this moment, this likely years out to come into fruition.
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批评KobeissiLetter虚伪营销并取关
@KobeissiLetter 对这条帖子的虚伪感到失望，已取消关注。这不过是伪装成客观市场评论的推广营销。尤其是你引用了帖子，而不是像往常一样。
英文原文
@KobeissiLetter Disappointed how disingenuous this post is and unfollowed. This is just promotional marketing disguised as objective market commentary. Especially how you quoted the post instead of the usual.
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批评$NBIS大规模ATM增发导致股价承压，对比$CRWV表现。
$NBIS 有一个2500万股的自动取款机(ATM)增发，很可能正在公开市场上出售。 $CRWV 今天上涨了5.13%+，而 $NBIS 收盘下跌3.91%。这就是为什么我非常讨厌这种规模的ATM增发。 这基本上就是在等待公司完成ATM增发，或者在其他做空者活动的背景下暂停它。
英文原文
$NBIS has a 25 million share ATM that's likely being sold on the open market. $CRWV went up 5.13%+ today while $NBIS ended the day down 3.91%. That's why I really dislike ATMs at this size. It's just basically waiting for the company to finish the ATM offering or pause it amid other short seller activity.
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询问若 SpaceX 估值达 1.5 万亿美元是否值得投资
如果 SpaceX 的估值达到 1.5 万亿美元，你会投资吗？
英文原文
Would you invest in SpaceX at a $1.5 Trillion valuation?