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NBIS达成ARR预测，表现超预期，持仓价值显著重估
@Asmallfish5 是的，我在他们通往1000亿美元市值的路径分析中提到，他们只需要实现90-110亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，而他们已经达成了这一预测。 这是一次令人难以置信的持仓表现，即使考虑到10%的潜在定向增发(ATM)稀释，$NBIS 的股价也应远高于基于70-90亿美元预测的水平（我原本期望是50亿美元以上，但这完全超出了我的预期）
英文原文
@Asmallfish5 Yeah I was saying in my path to $100B they just needed to do $9-11B ARR, and they hit that projection. Incredible hold, and even through 10% potential ATM, $NBIS should be way up from this $7-9B projection (I was hoping for $5B+, but this blew away my expectation)
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看好NBIS，认为其收入增长抵消稀释，当前估值偏低。
我的意思是，仅明年的年化经常性收入(ARR)就达到70-90亿美元，这绝对是巨大的成就。 $NBIS 的股价应该交易在160美元以上，市场目前将其核心业务（季度ARR 22亿美元）估值为150亿美元（哈哈）。巨大的收入预测完全掩盖了任何自动取款机(ATM)融资稀释的影响。 除此之外，大概只需信任 Nebius 管理层即可。通过收购来修复是个不错的方案，但他们可能更清楚该怎么做。
英文原文
I mean just as things are $7-$9B ARR next year alone is absolutely tremendous. $NBIS should be trading at $160+, markets valuing their core business ($2.2B ARR a quarter at $15B right now lol). The tremendous revenue projection outshadows any ATM dilution. That aside, probably just trust Nebius management on this one. Nice fix would be acquisitions, but they would probably know better.
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NBIS短期抛压大，但META合同战略意义重。
@0xcyberbro 中长期来看很容易。但在极短期内，存在27亿美元抛压（即使 $NBIS 在当前水平被低估）确实令人沮丧。 30亿美元的 $META 合同和年度经常性收入(ARR)预测在战略上更为重大，但股权融资在短期内财务负担更重。
英文原文
@0xcyberbro Easily for mid-long term. Very near term, it sucks that there's 2.7B worth of selling pressure (even if $NBIS is undervalued at these levels). The $3B $META contract and ARR projection is strategically bigger, but the equity raise is financially heavier in the short term.
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NBIS短期受稀释压制，但基本面强劲，当前股价被低估。
价值27亿美元的自动交易机制(ATM)股份稀释将对$NBIS股价造成短期压力。 从根本上看，他们每年90亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)的规模及其利润率，理应使其市值达到1000亿美元。 我认为，即使考虑到稀释因素，股价也应远高于当前水平（可转换票据(Convertible Notes)发行价在138美元以上），而这还是在其疯狂的ARR增长和与$META的交易之前。
英文原文
The $2.7B worth of ATM shares for dilution will put short term pressure on $NBIS stock price. Fundamentally doing $9B ARR a year with their margins should bring them to a $100B marketcap anyway. I'd argue stock price should be way up above these levels even factoring in dilution. (convertible notes were at $138+), and this was before their ridiculous ARR growth and $META deal.
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NBIS财报超预期且签Meta大单，因ATM稀释股价微跌，但长期前景极看好。
$NBIS 财报大幅超出预期，年化经常性收入(ARR)达70-90亿美元，并与Meta达成30亿美元的超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)交易。他们还增加了企业客户Cursor。尽管如此，在财报电话会议前股价目前下跌1.77%。为什么？稀释~27亿美元，2500万股通过市场发行(ATM)稀释，将于11月12日提交。这意味着价值27亿美元的股票（按当前价格）可以在公开市场按当前价格出售，而非可转换票据（首选结构），这很可能是股价尚未上涨20%的主要原因。这会影响短期股价，但此次发行后公司基本面依然惊人，拥有卓越的未来收入增长。例如看看Rocketlab或其他通过此举补充增长的公司。如果有更多时间，我也会深入分析财务数据。但仅2026年的70-90亿美元ARR（许多分析师预期在2028年之后），是非常看多的。
英文原文
$NBIS earnings report blew away expectations with $7-9B ARR and a $3B hyperscaler deal with Meta. They also added to their enterprise client list with Cursor. Despite that, stock is down -1.77% currently before their earnings call. Why? Dilution~$2.7B 25M share dilution ATM offering that will be filed Nov 12th. Meaning 2.7B worth of shares (at current prices) can be sold in the open market at current prices vs. convertible notes (preferred structure), which is the most likely reason it's not up 20% by now. It affect share price short term, but the company fundamentals after this offering is incredible with amazing forward revenue growth. Eg. look at Rocketlab or others that did this to supplement growth. Will also delve into financial data given more time. But the $7-9 billion ARR for 2026 alone (which many analysts expected in 2028+), is insanely bullish.
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$NBIS超预期并签$META大单，看好其成长为千亿美元市值公司。
哇，$NBIS 刚刚在增长方面大幅超出了年度经常性收入(ARR)预期，并在财报电话会议(ER)中宣布与 $META 签署了一份令人惊喜的30亿美元超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)协议。 他们现在预计2026年ARR将达到70-90亿美元，这意味着季度营收约为21亿美元以上。 这正是 Nebius 成长为一家市值1000亿美元公司的路径，$NBIS 正在成为一家世代级的公司。 关于整体业绩： 每股收益(EPS)：-0.52 vs -0.4（超预期23%） 营收：1.5573亿 vs 1.411亿（不及预期6%） 市场是前瞻性的，任何短期的财报电话会议波动都会被其巨大的未来增长前景所掩盖。 我将在有更多时间处理信息时进行更深入的分析，但就目前而言，这份惊喜的超大规模云厂商协议意义重大。 当市场对此进行定价时，股价应该远高于当前水平。
英文原文
Wow, $NBIS just blew away ARR expectations on growth and just signed a surprisising $3B hyperscaler deal with $META from their ER. They now expect $7-9B ARR 2026, which is ~2.1B+ revenue/quarter. This is exactly how Nebius grows grow to a $100B MC and $NBIS is a generational company in the making. In terms of general earnings: EPS: -.52 vs -.4 (Beat by 23%) Revenue 155.73m vs. 141.1M (Miss by 6%) Markets are forward looking and any short term ER will be overshadowed by its immense forward growth projection. Will do a deeper rundown when there's more time to process information but so far, this is incredibly huge with a surprise hyperscaler deal. Stock should be up way above these levels when markets price this in.
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Nebius核心业务被低估，现有业务按计划推进即利好。
很多人仍不理解 $NBIS 的未来营收，Nebius 量化并确认像 $WULF 这样的财务数据，而 FinX 正基于其现有核心业务进行投机，这本身就足以成为下一次财报的催化剂。鉴于 $NBIS 已从高点下跌约 20%，且市场低估了其基于现有净资产/资产的核心业务价值。如果宣布像 $CIFR 那样的大合同我会感到惊讶，所以这不在此预期内。我更关注执行层面，如利润率等，在看到他们关于 MSFT 的白皮书和建设/时间表后。如果仅凭现有业务就能按计划推进，那将是极其积极的信号。
英文原文
So a lot of people still don't understand $NBIS forward revenue, so having Nebius quantify and confirm financial data like $WULF that FinX are speculating with their existing core business would already be enough of momentum for next earnings. Since Nebius has already dropped ~20% from highs and markets are undervaluing $NBIS's core business with their existing NAV/assets. I'd be surprised if they announced another large contract like $CIFR so it's not expected. I'm more interested in execution, such as margins, etc. after seeing their whitepaper and buildout/timeline for MSFT. If things are on track with just their existing business, should be extremely positive. https://t.co/2x4vlVv6RU
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幽默回应关于Costco烤鸡保质期的提问。
@DeepValueBagger 要回答这个问题：Costco 的烤鸡保质期有多长？
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger To answer that question: What is the shelf life of a Costco rotisserie chicken?
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回应质疑，指出CLSK管理层将争议操作称为无限资金漏洞。
@DeepValueBagger 你可能会说是骗局。但 $CLSK 管理层称之为无限资金漏洞（infinite money glitch）。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger You might say scam. But $CLSK management says infinite money glitch.
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反驳Burry观点，论证旧GPU/TPU因残值仍具价值。
所以@michaeljburry 完全错了，因为 $NVDA GPU/ $GOOGL TPU/芯片的“保质期(shelf life)”并非他所声称的那样。但这很微妙，因为“利用率(utilization)可能被夸大以证明资本支出(capex)合理性”这一观点确实有一定道理。 你在这里同意我的观点，即它们仍然有用，但你只是在解释为什么出于必要性仍在继续使用它们。 我说的是GPU和TPU保留了残值(residual value)，并举了5-7年前的例子。 如果7年前的TPU因算力约束仍在运行，它们就仍有用途并保留价值。如果5年前的GPU仍在运行且能以高价转售，它们就保留了残值，因为它们被用于低优先级的推理(inference)并实现了货币化。
英文原文
So @michaeljburry is completely wrong in the sense that the shelf life of a $NVDA GPU/ $GOOGL TPU/ chips is not what he’s claiming. But it’s nuanced because there’s some truth the idea of utilization might be stretched to justify capex. You’re agreeing with me here in that they’re still useful but you’re just explaining why they’re still used out of necessity. I was saying GPUs and TPUs retained residual value and gave ones from 5-7 years ago as an example. If 7 year old TPUs are still running because of compute constraints, they’re still useful and retain value. If 5 year old GPUs are still running and can be resold at high values, they’re retain residual value because they get monetized for lower prio inference.
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新云财报解读及反驳伯里GPU贬值论，强调新云逻辑强劲。
今日新云(Neocloud)财报 + 为何迈克尔·伯里(Michael Burry)错了： $WULF - 财报超预期(ER)表现积极，来自520兆瓦(HPC)算力的高性能计算(HPC)容量总合同价值(TCV)达170亿美元。 在德州成立240兆瓦合资企业(JV)用于数据中心(DC)扩张 + 50亿美元融资。 不像$CIFR与AWS的财报超预期那样特别，只是确认（如交易融资）和站点开发。 $CRWV - 因第四季度远期收入较低，财报超预期表现短期看空。 556亿美元积压订单（其中224亿美元来自OpenAI）。小幅盈利超预期13.6亿 vs 12.9亿（同比129%），EBITDA利润率（61%）。 股价因数据中心延迟下跌，这损害了2025财年（50.5-51.5亿 vs 共识52.9亿）。运营利润率下调，正如我预测的那样，因为债务融资产生的利息（~10亿+利息/年）侵蚀了利润率，而其他新云没有同样的问题。 话虽如此，这是一次性问题，鉴于市场是前瞻性的，我们可能会看到任何抛售在下个季度后被买回。 _ 至于迈克尔·伯里关于GPU贬值的争论：他完全错了，但在低估这一点上部分正确。 他的普遍主张：芯片在2-3年产品周期上的资本支出(Capex)不应导致使用寿命的延长 -> 在谷歌的案例中，他们7年前的TPU正以100%的利用率运行。重复一遍，是7年前。 Amin Vahdat表示，谷歌目前生产中有七代TPU硬件，且“七到八年前的TPU拥有100%的利用率”。 “谷歌称TPU需求超过供应，声称8年前的硬件迭代‘100%利用率’” - 数据中心动态 -> 在英伟达(Nvidia)的案例中，A100（PCIe和SXM4变体）仍在运行。它们于2020年推出。现在是2025年。旧型号保持其价值并仍然提供收益。它们不会仅仅因为是补充新模型的附加组件就被核销。 英伟达的A100可以划分为隔离实例以最大化利用率，旧一代加速器仍用于推理或低优先级任务进行货币化，而不是像他所声称的那样被核销。它们实际上具有残值，5年后仍能高价转售。 他在保质期问题上完全错了，但在某些超大规模云服务商如何拉伸利用率概念以证明激进资本支出方面可能是正确的。 这是一个微妙的论点，但新云逻辑依然完好且比以往任何时候都更强。
英文原文
Neocloud Earnings Today + Why Michael Burry is Wrong: $WULF - ER was positive, $17B TCV from 520 MW HPC capacity. 240 MW JV in Texas for DC expansion + $5B financing. Nothing special like $CIFR ER with AWS, just conf (eg. deal finances) and site dev. $CRWV - ER was bearish near term due to lower forward revenue Q4. $55.6B backlog ($22.4B from OpenAI). Slight earnings beat 1.36B vs. 1.29B (129% Y/Y), EBITDA margins (61%). Stock dropped on datacenter delay, this hurts FY 2025 (505-5.15B vs. 5.29B consensus). Operating margins was lowered, which I predicted due to debt financing with interest (~1B+ interest/year) that cuts into margins, while other Neoclouds don't have that same issue. That being said this was a one-off issue, and we'll likely see any sell-off bought back after next quarter since markets are forward looking. _ As for Michael Burry arguing on GPU deprecation: he's completely wrong, but partially right about understating it. His general claim: capex of chips on a 2-3 yr product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives -> in Google's case, their TPUs from 7 years ago are being run at 100% utilization lol. Repeat 7 years ago. Amin Vahdat, said that Google currently has seven generations of its TPU hardware in production, and that the “seven- and eight-year-old TPUs have 100 % utilization.” "Google says TPU demand is outstripping supply, claims 8yr old hardware iterations have “100% utilization” -Data Center Dynamics -> in Nvidia's case A100 (PCIe and SXM4 variants), are still in operation. They were launched in 2020. It's 2025 now. Older models keep their value and still deliver equity. They don't just get nuked since it's an add-on to compliment newer models. Nvidia’s A100 can be partitioned into isolated instances to maximize utilization, and older-gen accelerators are still monetized for inference or lower-prio tasks rather than getting nuked as what he claims. They actually have residual value and still re-sale for a lot 5 years later. He's completely wrong here on shelf-life, but might be correct in how some hyperscalers stretch the idea of utilization to justify aggressive capex. It's a nuanced argument but Neocloud thesis remains in tact and stronger than ever.
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建议持有LTC，看好其ETF及山寨币行情。
@Indigo_Pilot 是的，持有 $LTC 很值得。我正准备评论说它正在逐步回升。 有很多像 $ZEC 这样的随机山寨币（Altcoin）行情，可能不想错过莱特币（Litecoin），尤其是它现在有了 ETF。 我仍然持有我的份额。
英文原文
@Indigo_Pilot Yeah worth holding $LTC. I was just about to comment it's working its way back up. There's quite a lot of random altcoin rallies like $ZEC, probably wouldn't want to miss Litecoin, especially that it has an ETF now. I'm still holding mine.
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博主回复网友表示赞同。
@mysticall3g3nd @t1energy 确实如此 https://t.co/wokFnRs9cn
英文原文
@mysticall3g3nd @t1energy true https://t.co/wokFnRs9cn
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宏观利好预期下，建议布局基本面稳健的高Beta成长股。
网上有很多只发标题党的帖子。 我通常尝试在标题之上连接线索，并补充“为什么”（因为它能推动市场）。 关于新宏观环境的TLDR（对$NBIS、$IREN等高Beta股看涨）： 1⃣ 结束政府停摆的协议正在成型 - Axios（政府停摆可能在~5天内结束） 评论：过去一两个小时内，事件合约赔率从27%跳升至54%。我们正在定价近期解决。 • 政府支出恢复后，流动性回流。 • 市场重新定价更高的GDP增长。 • 消费者支出立即回升。 • 不确定性消退（市场讨厌不确定性）。 结果 → 预期当风险偏好回归时，高Beta和周期性股票表现良好。 2️⃣ 向美国纳税人提议$2,000“关税红利” 评论：感觉像是COVID刺激的迷你版。那些存款引发了零售支出的最快跳跃，人们用那笔钱购买从比特币到英雄联盟皮肤的一切。但这至少来自关税。 • 对资产有利：更多资金流入经济。 • 可能导致通胀：需求压力增加，美联储后期可能反击。 • 短期：对风险资产和成长股极度积极。中长期：可能因通胀和美联储收紧而适得其反。 • 此类举措通常旨在短期内点燃市场，利好任何高成长标的。 结果 → 预期在正式重开前抢跑，并在确认后飙升。 你可以看到像$ETH这样的资产因上述两者的结合开始从$3300->$3500恢复，作为一个例子。 再次强调，我预期了像#2这样的情况，仅仅是因为明年中期选举临近。执政党如果市场表现良好通常会连任（所以我预期像#2 + 施压美联储降息，所以市场上涨）。 当然，这只是新消息+猜测，鉴于决策的波动性，不一定是事实lol。但总体上关注那些回调但基本面仍在增长的股票，例如$NBIS、$RDDT、$ALAB等。
英文原文
Lot of headline-only posters out there. I usually try to connect the dots on top of the headlines and fill in the why (it moves markets). TLDR on the new macro setup (bullish for high-beta names like $NBIS, $IREN, etc): 1⃣ DEAL TO END GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN TAKES SHAPE - Axios (Government shutdown likely ending within ~5 days) Commentary: Event-contract odds jumped from 27% → 54% in the past hour or two. We're pricing in a near-term resolution. • Liquidity flows back once government spending resumes. • Market reprices GDP growth higher. • Consumer spending picks up immediately. • Uncertainty fades (markets hate uncertainty). Result → Expect high-beta and cyclicals to do well when risk appetite comes back. 2️⃣ $2,000 “tariff dividend” proposal to American taxpayers Commentary: Feels like a mini-version of the COVID stimulus. Those deposits triggered the fastest jumps in retail spending, people were buying everything from Bitcoin to League Skins with that. But at least this came from tariffs. • Great for assets: more money flowing into the economy. • Might lead to inflation: more demand pressure, potential Fed pushback later. • Short-term: Extremely positive for risk assets and growth names. Mid to long-term: Could backfire with inflation and the Fed tightens. • Usually moves like this aim to ignite markets in the near term, good for anything heavy growth. Result → Expect frontrunning before the official reopening and a spike once it’s confirmed. You can kinda see stuff like $ETH start its recovery from the combination of the two above $3300->$3500 as an example. Again I expected things like #2, just due to midterms coming up next year. The party in power usually gets re-elected if markets seem to be doing well (so I'd expect stuff like #2 + fed pressured rate cuts, so markets go up). Of course this is just new news + speculation, not facts for sure given how volatile decisions are made lol. But generally focus on stocks that corrected but still have growing fundamentals eg. $NBIS, $RDDT, $ALAB, etc.
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看好NBIS强劲ARR指引及高利润率潜力，静待后续验证。
$NBIS 的年化经常性收入(ARR) 前瞻指引可能非常强劲。英国新数据中心和以色列政府数据中心将通过产能建设+新合同增加即时 ARR。白皮书暗示编排(Orchestration)业务将带来更高利润率。管理层展现出信心，这正是股东所喜欢的。几天后我们就会看到结果。
英文原文
Probably a strong forward projections ARR for $NBIS. New UK datacenters, Israel government datacenters that add more immediate ARR with capacity buildout + new contracts. Whitepaper alludes to higher margins from orchestration. Management exudes confidence which is what shareholders like. We’ll see in a few days.
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博主澄清无付费群，强调理解回调原因以坚定持仓信心。
@CB3409 我不运营任何付费群组，只想免费发布信息以帮助他人。特别是在从 $NBIS 到 $ALAB 全面大幅回调的时期，理解其原因有助于建立持有仓位或定投(DCA)的信心，从而避免恐慌。
英文原文
@CB3409 I don’t do any paid groups, just want to publish information for free to help others out. Especially in times where there’s major corrections across the board from $NBIS to $ALAB, it helps to understand why in order to develop conviction on holding positions or DCA to not panic
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博主因感冒减少看盘，对META定投看涨期权，心态佛系。
嗯，如果政府停摆持续，可能会再次下跌，谁知道呢。我这周感冒挺严重，所以没花太多时间看市场或刷 X。刚读完财报和新闻后，对 $META 进行了定投看涨期权(DCA calls)，除此之外这几天我心态挺佛系的。
英文原文
Eh, might dip again going if Gov shutdown prolongs, who knows. I've been out with a pretty bad cold this week so haven't been spending much time looking at markets + reading X. Just DCA'd calls on $META after reading through earnings + news, but otherwise pretty nonchalant few days for me.
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NBIS基本面改善显著但股价未动，看好指数纳入及新订单带来的利好。
希望你不会遭遇追缴保证金（如果你使用了杠杆）。否则，杠杆带来的反弹应该会带来更高的上行空间。 $NBIS 自与 $MSFT 达成交易以来，基本面出现了极其积极的变化，但其股价仍维持在最初公告时的跳涨水平附近交易。 抛开宏观因素不谈： - 预计11月24日左右纳入 MSCI 世界指数基金。 - 政府人工智能高性能计算（AI HPC）订单（以色列）。 - 英国数据中心项目。 还有其他次要的服务发布，比如 Token Factory，但我认为上述三点是最大的变化（后两者带来收入增长，前者带来流动性流入）。
英文原文
Hope you don't get margin called (if you're on margin). Otherwise, recovery on leverage should net higher upside. $NBIS only had extremely positive changes to the fundamentals since the $MSFT deal but is trading around the same price on the initial announcement pop. Macro aside: - Inclusion into MSCI world index fund ~Nov 24th. - Government AI HPC deals (Israel) - UK Data center. There's other minor service launches too like Token Factory but I'd probably put those three above as the biggest changes (latter two for revenue increase, first one for liquidity inflow)
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基于降息预期和政府重开概率，推测高贝塔股将大幅复苏。
当然，我的推测是，一旦政府重新开放，我们将看到像 $NBIS、$IREN 或 $ASTS 这样的高贝塔(高波动性)股票大幅复苏。鉴于下个月降息这一更广泛的顺风因素已被定价，概率为 74%。 根据当前的合约数据： 11月12日-15日：22% 11月15日：51%（未来一周内某时点约有半数机会） 11月30日：92% 我们可以看到，未来7天内政府重新开放的概率为50%。 因此，我们预计届时会出现复苏（如果概率增加，可能会有一些抢跑交易）。这仅仅是关于如何估算复苏。
英文原文
Sure, my speculation was that we'll see a large recovery in high beta stocks like $NBIS, $IREN, or $ASTS once government will re-opens. Since there's a broader tailwind of a rate cut next month priced in at 74%. So with the current contract data: Nov 12th-15th: 22% Nov 15th: 51% (~half chance sometime in the next week) Nov 30th: 92% We can just see there's a 50% chance government reopens in the next 7 days. So we'll get a recovery around then (likely with some frontrunning if chances increase). That's just in terms with estimating recovery.
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IREN财报EPS超预期系会计技巧，AI云ARR指引强劲，但利润转化仍待观察。
关于 $IREN，我看到那些吹嘘每股收益(EPS)“超预期”的评论，正是之前一直试图引用AI高性能计算(HPC)92%+毛利率的同一群人。这纯粹只是会计框架的包装。 从盈利角度看，他们预测AI云业务的年度经常性收入(ARR)达到34亿美元，这极其看涨。IREN 还有大量剩余产能，因此预计进入2026年后ARR将进一步扩大。 但除此之外，我一直主张产能转化为收入，但从该收入中产生的利润率/自由现金流(FCF)更为重要。现在的问题仅仅是有多少收入能转化为利润，我认为在后续财报出来之前，我们很难确切知道。 抛开这些不谈，IREN 的财报表现似乎很不错。
英文原文
So for $IREN, the amount of comments I've seen bullposting about EPS "beat" are the same people who kept trying to quote 92%+ gross margins on AI HPC. It's literally just accounting framing. Earnings wise, extremely bullish that they projected $3.4B ARR from AI cloud. IREN has a lot more capacity left-over so they'll likely scale ARR more going into 2026. But that aside I've always argued capacity -> revenue, but margins/FCF from that revenue is more important. Now it's just a debate how much of that revenue converts into profit, which I don't think we'll know for sure until future earnings come in. That aside IREN earnings seemed great.
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$SNAP 财报超预期且被低估，中期看涨但短期受市场抛售影响。
是的，$SNAP 的财报非常扎实，尤其是来自 Perplexity 的 4 亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)。此外，明年还将迎来来自 memories Cloud 的运营支出(opex)削减，5 亿美元回购，且全面超预期。中期来看极度看涨，但它受困于更广泛的市场抛售。我同意其在 137 亿美元的市值下被极度低估，明年轻松有 50%+ 的上涨空间。但大量的期权流向(Option flow)加上更广泛的市场抛售正在影响短期股价。
英文原文
Yeah, $SNAP earnings were incredibly solid, especially with $400m ARR from Perplexity. Then you have opex cuts from memories Cloud coming in next year, $500m buyback, beat across the board. Incredibly bullish mid term, but it got caught in the broader selloff. I'd agree it's extremely undervalued at $13.7B, easy 50%+ going into next year. But there's a lot of option flow + broader sell-off affecting near term stock prices.
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高贝塔股大幅回调，建议基本面完好者逢低布局。
全面的回调简直令人作呕。 高贝塔值成长股过去5天的表现： • $SMCI -26.11% • $RKLB -19.85% • $CRCL -19.81% • $NBIS -19.14% • $WYFI -18.55% • $ALAB -16.64% • $CRDO -16.8% • $HOOD -14.36% • $ASTS -14.09% • $IREN -13.22% • $AMD -11.63% • $CIFR -10.05% • $RDDT -9.00% 像 $RGTI (-27.33%)、$QBUT (-25.5%)、$QBTS (-25.43%)、$OKLO (-17.04%) 等没有收入的投机性股票，普遍出现了更大的回调。 当政府重新开放时，我预计许多投机性名称将继续下跌，而基本面完好无损的公司（例如 $CIFR、$NBIS、$TSM、$HOOD、$RDDT）将会恢复。 当前合约市场数据： 11月12日-15日：22% 11月15日：49%（下周某时约有一半几率） 11月30日：92% 在市场极度恐慌且下月第三次降息概率超过75%时，利用大幅回调布局高贝塔值股票（如果基本面完好）是绝佳时机。 像这样的大规模抛售也说明了为什么你不应该做剩余期限<30天的短期期权，即使你对 $SNAP 或 $CIFR 的财报判断正确。
英文原文
Pretty disgusting correction across the board. Last 5 days for high-beta growth stocks: • $SMCI -26.11% • $RKLB -19.85% • $CRCL -19.81% • $NBIS -19.14% • $WYFI -18.55% • $ALAB -16.64% • $CRDO -16.8% • $HOOD -14.36% • $ASTS -14.09% • $IREN -13.22% • $AMD -11.63% • $CIFR -10.05% • $RDDT -9.00% Speculative no revenue stocks like ( $RGTI -27.33%, $QBUT -25.5%, $QBTS -25.43%, $OKLO -17.04% etc), had larger corrections across the board. When the government reopens, I’d expect many of the speculative names to stay down, while companies where fundamentals are in tact (eg. $CIFR, $NBIS, $TSM, $HOOD, $RDDT) would recover. Current Contract Market data: Nov 12th-15th: 22% Nov 15th: 49% (~half chance sometime in the next week) Nov 30th: 92% Great time to position into higher-beta stocks during large corrections, (if fundamentals are in-tact), especially when we're in the extreme-fear part of markets and there's 75%+ of a third rate cut next month. Broad selloffs like these are also why you don't do short dated options <30dte, even if you are correct on earnings like $SNAP or $CIFR.
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认为$NBIS受宏观影响被低估，基本面完好是买入良机。
@hereforgoodish $NBIS 在当前价位被严重低估。它只是一只受宏观环境影响的高贝塔（High Beta）股票。 如果基本面完好，这就是一个买入机会。 https://t.co/RTbdrjXqtx
英文原文
@hereforgoodish $NBIS is very undervalued at these levels. It’s just a high beta stock affected by broader macro. If fundamentals are in tact, then it’s a buying opportunity https://t.co/RTbdrjXqtx
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基本面强劲支撑AI板块，短期回调因宏观因素，建议逢低加仓。
忽略噪音，持有仓位或在市场赢家身上加仓。 你拥有： - 来自 $NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR 等新型云服务商(Neoclouds)的惊人远期营收增长 - 来自 $META 到 $MSFT 等七巨头(Mag7)财报创纪录的高资本支出(CapEX)预期 - 来自 $TSM 等半导体公司创纪录的高远期营收预期+利润率增长 如果基本面完好，像“AI派对结束了”这样的新闻头条就是胡扯。 随着政府停摆结束，我们很可能会看到重大复苏。 这很可能是一次短期回调，定价了诸如没有第三次降息（概率从86%降至70%，但仍有可能）+ 政府停摆延长至16日之后（合约市场显示53%的概率，两天前为30%）等因素。
英文原文
Ignore the noise and hold positions/add in market winners. You have: - Insane forward revenue growth from Neoclouds like $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR - Record high CapEX projections from Mag7 earnings like $META to $MSFT - Record high forward revenue projections + margin growth from semiconductors like $TSM. If fundamentals are in tact, news headlines like "The AI Party is Over" is BS. We'll likely see a major recovery when government shutdown ends. This is likely a short-term correction pricing in a few things such as no third rate cut (86% -> 70%, still likely) + government shutdown extending past the 16th (53% chance, 30% chance 2 days ago) per contract markets.
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博主澄清未建仓，并祝贺对方在MQ上的收益。
@BarnieTaintpipe 不，我没有建立仓位。恭喜你在 $MQ 上的表现。
英文原文
@BarnieTaintpipe Nope didn’t get positions. Congrats on $MQ though
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博主反思错失 $OSS 买入机会，因低估其成为 Anduril 供应商的概率。
@Aiime_ai 是的，我本应在做 $OSS 尽职调查(DD) 且股价为 4.7 美元时买入。鉴于 OSS 有 70-80% 的概率成为 Anduril 的供应商，而其市值仅为 1.1 亿美元，这看起来好得有些不真实……就这样错失了一次免费的 20%+ 收益。
英文原文
@Aiime_ai Yeah, I probably should have bought $OSS when I did the DD at $4.7. 70-85% probability of OSS being an Anduril supplier with a $110m marketcap seemed a bit too good to be true... There goes a free 20%+ https://t.co/nz6DYuXxsa
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博主因错过自己的深度研究感到遗憾，并坦言希望OSS股价下跌。
@arthur_alston 错过自己的深度研究(DD)感觉很糟。我很大一部分内心希望 $OSS 下跌。 https://t.co/GwgMKRGsiB
英文原文
@arthur_alston Feels bad missing out on my own DD. A large part of me is hoping $OSS goes down. https://t.co/GwgMKRGsiB
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澄清 $IREN 估值争议，指出原帖低估IRR，给出10%-28%的IRR区间。
当有人说“他讨厌x”或“他有偏见”时，你没有任何理由去反驳他的观点。我不确定很多 $IREN 社区成员是去攻击个人而不是数据，但这无助于解决问题。 回到主题，你说得对，原帖确实遗漏了 $IREN 200兆瓦数据中心（数据中心）的残值，其使用寿命通常长于5年。因此，这低估了内部收益率(IRR)。 但该表格在隔离合同经济学（而非企业价值EV）方面在数学上是正确的，所以你们争论的是两回事。 现实介于你的帖子和他们的帖子之间： -> 无杠杆内部收益率(IRR) ~10.2% -> 可能的IRR案例 <20% (14%-18%) -> 22-28% 是激进情况，且一切顺利（伴随显著的数据中心终端实现和融资）
英文原文
You have no argument when you say his point is wrong because "He hates x" or "He is biased". I'm not sure a lot of $IREN community members go after a person themself instead of the data but it's not productive. Going back to the topic, you're right that the original post is missing residual value for $IREN's 200 MW datacenter, which usually has longer life than 5Y. So it understates IRR. But the table is mathematically correct for isolating contract economics, not EV, so you're arguing two different things. Reality lies in between your post and theirs: -> Unlevered IRR ~10.2% -> Likely IRR case <20% (14%-18%) -> 22-28% aggressive and everything goes right (with significant terminal datacenter realization and financing)
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WSB板块市值门槛限制导致无法讨论小盘股。
@longequity147 @NicolaImpa @LAMoon__X 华尔街梗(WSB)板块要求市值最低5亿美元，所以你本来就无法在$RDDT上发帖或评论关于$OSS的内容。
英文原文
@longequity147 @NicolaImpa @LAMoon__X WSB has $500m mc min so you wouldn’t be able to post or comment about $OSS on $RDDT anyway
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分析 $OSS 与 Andruil 合作潜力及订单规模，仅少量持仓追踪。
很高兴看到关于 $OSS 的其他观点，我个人只有在他们与 Andruil 合作并成为像 $KRKNF 那样的核心供应商时才感兴趣。 看起来他们目前仅处于 $650 万合同订单的测试阶段。但话说回来，考虑到他们的市值仅为 1.2 亿美元，这已经是一笔不小的数目了。 _ 披露更新：我仅持有几百美元作为表现追踪器，并非投资。
英文原文
Good to know other thoughts about $OSS, I personally was only interested in it if they worked with Andruil and became a core supplier like $KRKNF. It looks like they're just in testing stage with the $6.5m contract order. But then again considering their marketcap is only $120m that's quite a lot. _ disclosure update: I have a few hundred dollars worth just as a performance tracker, not an investment.