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大幅加仓TSM并适度买入CRCL，看好其突破机会及USDC业务前景。
今天大幅加仓了 $TSM，价格约 $302.5。 同时也适度加仓了 $CRCL，价格约 $87.2。 自 $TSM 创下纪录般的业绩以来，股价一直在震荡整理，直觉告诉我它随时可能突破。这纯粹是凭感觉。 至于 $CRCL，虽然降息对其不利，但美元稳定币 (USDC) 的铸造仍在持续。加密货币也从12月的降息中反弹，且股份解禁已完成。 因此我认为 $190亿市值是一个很好的机会。自首次公开募股 (IPO) 以来我就想做多 Circle，但直到最近才等到机会。
英文原文
Added very heavily in $TSM today ~$302.5. Also added a decent amount in $CRCL positions at ~$87.2. We’ve been chopping since record breaking earnings from $TSM just felt it would breakout anytime now. This is just gut feeling. As for $CRCL rate cuts hurt, but the USDC printer keeps on going. Crypto also rebounding from Dec rate cut, and share unlock is done. So felt $19B MC was a good opportunity. I wanted to go long on Circle ever since IPO but never got the opportunity to until recently.
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确认$NBIS期权合约作为示例
@blu400_ 是的，$NBIS 12/19 $130C 就是一个例子
英文原文
@blu400_ I do, $NBIS 12/19 $130C was one example
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推荐买入$ALAB，因其高利润率及超跌后的反弹潜力。
@IncrediBadly $ALAB 是一笔极佳的买入。其利润率高于 $NVDA，且同比增长三位数。该股已从 $250 的高点回落，是绝佳的反弹买入机会。在此价位可能不会做期权交易，但持有股票等待也不无坏处。
英文原文
@IncrediBadly $ALAB is an amazing buy. Higher margins than $NVDA and growing triple digits Y/Y. It's already down from it's $250 high, great recovery buy. Around here probably wouldn't do options but shares can't hurt for waiting.
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回顾对LITE的TPU v7供应链研究，认为其前景好但当前估值略高。
@itsthesquonky 大约在我对 $LITE 进行 TPU v7 供应链研究的时候！ 前景非常令人期待，但目前略微过度延伸。
英文原文
@itsthesquonky Round the time I did supply chain research on TPU v7 for $LITE! Incredibly promising but a tad overextended right now https://t.co/QFojyOiXXP
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日元套利平仓短期利空，中期利好新云板块，建议做多。
短期日元套利交易平仓（日本加息，美联储降息）带来轻微负面影响。中期影响对成长型资产，尤其是涉及债务驱动增长的“新云”板块（如 $CRWV, $IREN, $NBIS）应极具看多意义。基本面未见放缓迹象，因此我认为现在是做多的好时机。
英文原文
Short term unwinding from yen carry trade (Japan rate hike, fed cut), which was slightly negative. Medium term impact should be incredibly bullish on growth assets, especially Neocloud sector that involve debt for growth like $CRWV, $IREN, $NBIS. Don't see any fundamentals slowing, so great time to go long imo
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SMCI因订单延迟致短期利空，但长期增长确定且估值极低，强烈建议买入。
@LandoInvests 很乐意就 $SMCI 进行辩论，我在文中阐述了其因 2026 年第二季度前瞻性营收积压（Forward Revenue Backlog）而注定复苏的逻辑。 https://t.co/FJj3yXlhGT （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 将 $SMCI 评级上调至极度强烈买入（EXTREMELY STRONG BUY），目标价约 $33（市值约 190 亿美元）。 • 2026 财年营收预期上调至 360 亿美元以上（较 220 亿美元同比增长 60%+）。 • AI 数据中心（AI Data Center）建设（如 $NBIS、$IREN、$DGXX）使 GPU 服务器需求保持最大化。 这并非 $CRDO 那种营收同比增长 272% 的故事，而是被错估的价值。 原因如下： SMCI 财报后下跌源于两点：对利润率压缩（Margin Compression）的担忧和营收不及预期。 1. 2026 年第一季度的“不及预期”实为订单延迟： • 营收为 50 亿美元，低于此前 60-70 亿美元的指引。 • 然而，这仅仅是 15 亿美元推迟至第二季度，客户在等待英伟达 Blackwell Ultra 配置。且公司甚至将全年指引从 330 亿美元上调至 360 亿美元。 2. 利润率压缩担忧： • 2025 财年净利率：约 5.9%（220 亿美元营收对应 13 亿美元净利润）。 • 当前的利润率压缩是暂时的。随着数字租赁中心（Digital Lending Center, DLC）制造沿学习曲线（Learning Curve）下行，单位成本下降，利润率上升。管理层目标下半年毛利率约 11%，净利率回升至约 5.5%。 若毛利率均值回归至约 11%，净利率在 360-380 亿美元营收基础上回归至 5-6%，你将看到 20 亿美元以上的盈利。 营收：380 亿美元 净利率：5.5%（复苏情景） 隐含净利润：20.9 亿美元 股本：6.8 亿股（稀释后） 股价：约 33.85 美元 市盈率计算：33.85 / 3.07 = 11.0 倍 远期市盈率：约 10-13 倍，对于一家拥有 60%+ 远期增长的公司来说，极其便宜。 $SMCI 不依赖 GPU 使用寿命的会计游戏，无论如何它都出售机架。 此外，$NVDA、$NBIS、$CRDO 及其他 AI 数据中心股票在财报后确认 AI 热潮并未放缓。 $SMCI 是 AI/数据中心热潮的核心，同比增长 60%+，但市场却将其视为类似 $MSTR 的困境资产。 因此我建立多头头寸，因为 $SMCI 看起来是硬件板块中风险调整后最具吸引力的 6 个月（中期）交易，拥有 50-100% 的上行空间。
英文原文
@LandoInvests Happy to debate $SMCI, I put my thesis here on why it's bound for a recovery due to forward revenue backlog in Q2 2026. https://t.co/FJj3yXlhGT
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更新持仓表现，计划逢高加仓AMKR/SMCI，等待LITE回调。
持仓更新： 持有高确信度的多头头寸如 $NBIS 并卖出期权，周末相对轻松。 上周小幅加仓更新： $LITE - $316.5 (+5.53%) -> ~$335.91 Lite 受益于 $NVDA Blackwell 和 $GOOGL v7 TPU 的产能爬坡。 $AMKR - $37.6 (+18.4%) ~$44.5 受益于美国关于与 $TSM 建厂的政策。 $SMCI - ~$32.92 (+5.97%) ~$210.3亿 （明年营收同比增长60%，季度积压订单延迟导致的40%跌幅是不合理的）。 $TTD - $38.6 (+3.78%) ~$40.6 除了 $CRWV 再融资20亿美元并拖累其他 Neoclouds，以及华纳兄弟1080亿美元 Paramount 收购案风波外，没看到太多新闻。 可能会在 $AMKR 和 $SMCI 上逢高加仓，等待 $LITE 更深幅度的回调。
英文原文
Stock position updates: Sitting on high-conviction longs like $NBIS and writing options, relatively lax weekend. Minor position adds updates from last week: $LITE - $316.5 (+5.53%) -> ~$335.91 Lite benefits from $NVDA Blackwell + $GOOGL v7 TPU rampup $AMKR - $37.6 (+18.4%) ~$44.5 Benefits from US-policy regarding Fab with $TSM. $SMCI - ~$32.92 (+5.97%) ~$21.03B (60% Y/Y revenue growth going into next year, the 40% drop for quarter backlog delay was unwarranted). $TTD - $38.6 (+3.78%) ~$40.6 Haven't seen too much news aside from $CRWV raising another $2B and tanking other Neoclouds. Or the $108B Paramount bid drama for Warner. Probably going to cost average up on $AMKR, $SMCI, waiting on a deeper drops for $LITE.
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博主重新登录游戏，并类比游戏交易机制与现实股票交易。
@pepemoonboy 看到这条帖子我又重新登录了。好多年没玩过了！ 我相当确定，大交换（Grand Exchange）的机制也会延续到现实生活中的股票交易中。 https://t.co/GR60bJaE8F
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Just logged in again when i saw this post. Haven't played in years! Pretty sure the grand exchange carries over into real life stock trading too. https://t.co/GR60bJaE8F
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博主回应互动，表示喜欢对方对日本社区的评论。
@beauty_oe @Hedgeye 没问题！我也很喜欢看到你对日本社区的评论。
英文原文
@beauty_oe @Hedgeye 大丈夫だよ！ 日本のコミュニティへのあなたのコメントを見るのも大好きなんだ。
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虽非NBIS死忠粉，但看好其基本面改善，愿逢利空卖出。
@pepemoonboy @Hedgeye 谢谢！不过我并不是 $NBIS 社区的硬核成员。如果基本面发生不利变化，我不怕卖出该股票。但到目前为止，我只看到从母公司到其子公司的积极变化，因此我对该公司的未来感到兴奋。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy @Hedgeye Thanks! I'm not a hardcore $NBIS community member though. If something bad changes to the fundamentals, I'm not afraid to sell the stock. But so far I've only seen positive changes from the parent company down to its subsidiaries so I'm excited for the future of the company.
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引用亚马逊案例佐证观点。
@bubbleboi 确实，看看 $AMZN 就知道了。https://t.co/EpkUPYB4GW
英文原文
@bubbleboi True, just look at $AMZN. https://t.co/EpkUPYB4GW
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看好RKLB与NBIS，认为市场低估了这两家行业第二梯队的成长潜力。
市场正在错误定价地球上最大板块中的第二梯队玩家。 我对 $RKLB = $NBIS Avride 的论点： 1. 太空领域 ($RKLB) -> SpaceX 估值刚从 $350B 升至 $800B。Rocketlab 将从 $26B 增长至 SpaceX 之前的估值水平。 这只是时间问题。 2. 自动驾驶出租车 (Robotaxis) ($NBIS) Waymo 在一年内从 $45B 涨至 $200B。$NBIS Avride 将从 $6B 增长至 Waymo 之前的估值水平。 这只是时间问题，无论是一年还是四年后。 关于 $NBIS 的关键点是：Avride 只是其众多子公司之一，仅这一家公司在两年内的价值就可能超过当前的整体市值。 市场和空头都错误定价了这样一个事实：Nebius 拥有地球上增长最快、最热门的板块公司，且全部实现 100%+ 的同比增长。 做多 $RKLB，做多 $NBIS。
英文原文
The market is mispricing the #2 players in the biggest sectors on Earth. My thesis on $RKLB = $NBIS Avride 1. Space ( $RKLB ) -> SpaceX just got valued at $800B from $350B. Rocketlab will grow into SpaceX's prev valuation from $26B It's just a matter of time. 2. Robotaxis ( $NBIS ) Waymo went from $45B → $200B in 1 year. $NBIS Avride is going to grow into Waymo's previous valuation from $6B. It's just a matter of time, whether that's 1 year or 4 years from now. And here is the thing with $NBIS: Avride is just one subsidiary out of multiple, and this company alone could be worth more than the entire market cap today in 2 years. Both the market and short sellers misprice the fact that Nebius owns the fastest growing and hottest sector companies on Earth, all growing 100%+ Y/Y. Long $RKLB, Long $NBIS.
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IREN和WULF主要涉及可转债套利而非做空。
@MambaHarveyInc @babyfolio @Hedgeye 关于 $IREN 和 $WULF 这类股票，大部分是可转债套利(convertible note arbitrage)而非做空(shorts)。
英文原文
@MambaHarveyInc @babyfolio @Hedgeye on stuff like $IREN and $WULF majority is convertible note arbitrage not shorts.
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以OKLO为例，说明做空引发的轧空导致股价大幅飙升。
@MambaHarveyInc @babyfolio @Hedgeye 增加了波动性。我的意思是，看看当 Kerrisdale 做空 $OKLO 时发生了什么。由于空头被挤压（Short Squeeze），其股价在较长周期内从 25 美元飙升至 175 美元。
英文原文
@MambaHarveyInc @babyfolio @Hedgeye added volatility. I mean just look at $OKLO when kerrisdale shorted. went from $25 to $175 in the longer run because shorts got squeezed.
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博主调侃小丑比空头能赚钱，呼吁勿侮辱小丑。
@babyfolio @Hedgeye 嘿，小丑们至少能从工作中赚钱，不像空头。别侮辱小丑们。
英文原文
@babyfolio @Hedgeye hey, clowns at least make money from their job compared to short sellers. don't insult the clowns
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RKLB有望追赶SpaceX获10倍回报，Avride有望追赶Waymo。
@RKLBMan @Hedgeye 是的，我对 $RKLB 的投资论点(Thesis)是，它会在合理的时间内（例如5到7年）追赶上 SpaceX，而 SpaceX 上一轮的估值为3500亿美元，这意味着超过10倍的回报。 我对 Avride 持有相同的论点，它可能会在两三年内追赶上 Waymo 在2024年450亿美元的估值。
英文原文
@RKLBMan @Hedgeye yeah my thesis in $RKLB was that it will catch up to SpaceX in a due amount of time (eg. 5, 7 years) and SpaceX's last valuation was $350B, so that's 10x+ return. Same thesis for Avride, will catch up to Waymo's $45B valuation back in 2024, maybe in two-three years.
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Avride是$NBIS核心资产，自动驾驶出租车市场潜力巨大，机构严重低估$NBIS价值。
根据 Seeking Alpha 报告与 Nuro 的基准对比，其估值现在可能约为 60 亿美元。但我会说 Avride 是 $NBIS 的皇冠明珠，而非 Clickhouse，尤其是当 Waymo 等自动驾驶出租车 (Robotaxi) 公司在短时间内估值飙升至 1000 亿美元以上时。 $TSLA 仅因推出自动驾驶出租车就增加了数千亿美元的价值（例如 Cathie Wood 表示自动驾驶出租车可能占特斯拉价值的 90%），这是一个因参与者稀缺而具有极大上行空间的市场。 基本上只有 $TSLA、$GOOGL 的 Waymo、$AMZN 的 Zoox、现代……以及正试图抵御自动驾驶出租车竞争的 $UBER。 $UBER 通过 Avride 而非与 Waymo 合作来扩大其防御能力至关重要，以避免将客户引导至竞争对手的应用程序（例如他们联合投资了 3.75 亿美元的原因）。 鉴于 $NBIS 拥有 Avride 83% 的股份，如果其规模达到约 450 亿美元市值（这是 Waymo 在 2024 年 10 月的估值）……这实际上超过了 Nebius 今天的市值，而它才刚刚在德克萨斯州启动。 像 Hedgeye 这样的基金可能没有计算 SOP 增长，并且严重低估了 Nebius。
英文原文
Probably around $6B now as per the seeking alpha report benchmarked vs Nuro. But I'd say Avride is crown jewel of $NBIS, not clickhouse, especially when robotaxi companies like Waymo scaled to a $100B+ valuation in a short time. $TSLA gained hundreds of billions in value just due robotaxi launch (eg. Cathie Wood said robotaxis could be 90% of tesla's value) and it's a market with extreme upside due to lack of players. There's basically just $TSLA, $GOOGL Waymo, $AMZN Zoox, Hyundai... and then $UBER which is trying to defend themselves against robotaxi competition. $UBER has the upmost importance to scale its defensibility with Avride instead of partnering with Waymo -> funneling customers into the other app. (eg. why they joint invested $375M). Given how $NBIS owns 83% of avride, if it scales to ~$45B MC, which was Waymo's valuation BACK in October 2024.... That's literally more than Nebius's marketcap today lol, and it just launched in Texas. Funds like Hedgeye probably aren't accounting for SOP growth and are vastly underestimating Nebius.
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反驳Hedgeye做空逻辑，对比Coreweave指出Nebius财务更健康且业务多元。
做空机构 @Hedgeye 正在做空 Nebius $NBIS。股价现为 $97.8。 他们的观点？Nebius 是 Coreweave 2.0。 Coreweave [ $CRWV ]： - 客户多元化程度低，主要是超大规模云服务商，约四分之一的积压订单来自 OpenAI。 - 剩余现金 18 亿美元。 - 由于 8-10% 利率的有毒融资，每年债务利息超过 13 亿美元。 Nebius 也是如此吗？ Nebius [ $NBIS ]： - 在 Neocloud 市场中拥有最高的客户多元化，包括 $META、$MSFT、政府、$SHOP、Mistral、$NOW 等。 - 剩余现金超过 48 亿美元。 - 票据结构约 40%+ 价外(OTM)，年利率约 2%，每年利息支出约 7660 万美元。 - 拥有对 $UBER 至关重要的 FSD 4 级 Robotaxi 自动驾驶汽车业务板块（最后一轮融资 $UBER 投入 3.75 亿美元），以对抗 Waymo。 - AI 训练板块由贝索斯资助，并被 $AMZN、Anthropic 等使用。 - 持有子公司 28% 的股份，该子公司被 $TSLA、$NET、Tiktok、$META 等大多数上市公司使用。 - 4 家子公司同比增长 100%，伴随核心运营业务增长，Tripleten/Toloka 每年增加净收入。 这是同一家公司吗。
英文原文
A short seller firm @Hedgeye is now shorting Nebius $NBIS. The stock price is now $97.8. Their claim? Nebius is Coreweave 2.0. Coreweave [ $CRWV ]: - Small diversification in customers, mainly hyperscalers, ~quarter of their backlog is OpenAI. - $1.8B in cash left - $1.3B+/yearly in debt interest from toxic financing at 8-10% interest. Same thing as Nebius right? Nebius [ $NBIS ]: - Highest diversification in the Neocloud market of customers from $META, $MSFT, governments, $SHOP, Mistral, $NOW, and many others. - $4.8B+ in cash left - ~$76.6M/yearly from note structure 40%+ OTM at ~2% interest. - FSD level 4 Robotaxi self driving car segment that is of critical importance to $UBER (last round $375M with $UBER) to compete vs Waymo. - AI training segments funded by Bezos and used by $AMZN, Anthropic, and others - 28% in subsidiary that most of the public companies from $TSLA, $NET, Tiktok, $META and so on use - 4 subsidiaries growing 100% Y/Y alongside their core operational business, with Tripleten/Toloka adding to net income every year. Same company.
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反驳做空 $NBIS 观点，对比其与 $CRWV 在财务及业务上的巨大差异。
做空 $NBIS 是个好主意，因为你认为它和 $CRWV 一样，不错的论点！ $CRWV -> 每年 13 亿+美元的债务利息，拥有来自 OpenAI 的大量积压订单，剩余现金 18 亿美元。 $NBIS -> 可转换票据结构，利息不会严重侵蚀盈利能力；客户基础多元化以实现高利用率（Shopify、Cursor、政府机构、Meta/MSFT 等超大规模云服务商）；拥有 48 亿+美元现金用于建设；Robotaxi 自动驾驶汽车板块被 $UBER 使用并正在扩展以与 Waymo 竞争；AI 训练板块由 $AMZN、Anthropic 等资助并使用；持有 28% 的子公司股份，该子公司被大多数上市公司使用，所有 4 家子公司同比增长 100%——市值 240 亿美元。 当然和 Coreweave 是同一家公司。
英文原文
Great idea to short $NBIS because you think it's the same $CRWV, nice thesis! $CRWV -> $1.3B+ yearly debt interest, large backlog from OpenAI, $1.8B in cash left. $NBIS -> Convertible notes structure where interest doesn't heavily cut into profitability, diversified customer base for high utilization (shopify, cursor, governments, hyperscalers like meta/msft), $4.8B+ in cash for buildout, Robotaxi self driving car segments used by $UBER and scaling up to compete vs Waymo, AI training segments funded by and used by $AMZN, Anthropic, and others, 28% in subsidiary that most of the public companies use, all 4 subsidiaries growing 100% Y/Y - $24B MC. Same company as Coreweave for sure.
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反馈 Comet 浏览器 Mac 版快捷键失效及引导体验。
刚安装了 Comet 想试试——在 Mac 上 Shift+Command+A 似乎不起作用：版本 142.0.7444.176（官方构建）（arm64）。看起来它没有预构建在设置/快捷键中？例如，我可以将 Shift+Command+A 用作新设置，但其他快捷键已经存在。这是内置的吗，还是我应该寻找特定的快捷键？不过，入门引导（Onboarding）确实非常酷且令人印象深刻。
英文原文
Installed Comet just to try - Shift Command A didn't seem to work on Mac: Version 142.0.7444.176 (Official Build) (arm64) Doesn't look like it's pre-built into settings/shortcuts? eg. I'm able to use shift command A as a new setting but others already exist. was this built in or am I supposed to find a specific shortcut. Onboarding is super cool and impressive though
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对比NBIS与IREN跌幅，探讨基于个股表现与持仓回撤的优劣之争。
@DannyQuark 你说得对，$NBIS > $IREN，因为 Nebius 仅下跌了 17.5%，而非 41.5%。 但你是否想过反方论点：$IREN > $NBIS，因为 $IREN 的持仓今日仅亏损 4%，而非 6%？
英文原文
@DannyQuark You're right, $NBIS > $IREN because Nebius only dropped by -17.5% instead of -41.5%. But have you thought of the counter argument that $IREN > $NBIS because $IREN portfolios faced-4% loss today instead of -6%?
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分析NBIS和IREN财报后大跌原因，认为跌幅过度且受情绪影响。
财报前 $NBIS 股价在 $115-$135 区间。此后因以下利好下跌约 21%-40%：与 $UBER 合作推出 Robotaxi FSD，ARR 预估翻倍，GW 产能指引上调 150%，$META 意外合同，MSCI 纳入带来的资金流入。唯一的利空是 2500 万股稀释。作为投资者我极度反感这一点（更偏好 FCF -> 产能爬坡）。不幸的是，$ORCL 和 $CRWV 的重大债务警告、$CRWV 影响 $APLD 等供应商发行垃圾债及信贷收紧，以及 GPU 折旧论调同时打击了 Neocloud 市场。其中只有信贷收紧是实质性的，不足以解释 $NBIS 的大幅下跌（纯属情绪）。话说回来，他们确实需要改善营销。（例如没人将 Robotaxi 与 $NBIS 关联，主流新闻也不知晓此事）。至于 $IREN，他们出人意料地选择购买 GPU 而非 Colo 服务，鉴于 3GW 产能，投资者可能看到巨大的潜在稀释，因此也下跌了 40%。我相信 $IREN 在营销方面没问题，它拥有像 $ASTS 那样的狂热追随者（这对他们是好事）。
英文原文
Pre-earnings $NBIS was sitting around $115-$135. We've dropped over ~21%-40% since then on: Robotaxi FSD launch with $UBER, doubled ARR estimates, increased GW capacity guidance by 150%, surprise $META contract, MSCI inclusion inflow. The only downside: 25m share dilution. Which I extremely dislike as an investor (FCF -> ramp up would be preferred) Unfortunately, TI hit reports on $ORCL, $CRWV major debt flag, $CRWV affecting suppliers from $APLD raising junk bonds + credit tightening, and GPU depreciation arguments all kind of hit the Neocloud market at the same time. Only credit tightening was something material and doesn't warrant that much of a drop for $NBIS (purely sentiment). That being said they need to improve their marketing for sure. (Eg. nobody associates robotaxis with $NBIS at all and even mainstream news don't know about it). As for $IREN, they did a surprising move to buy GPUs instead of colo offerings and given the 3GW capacity investors probably see a huge huge amount of potential dilution, hence the 40% drop too. I'm sure $IREN is fine on the marketing front, it has that cult-like following like $ASTS (which is a good thing going for them).
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NBIS与IREN股价齐跌，反驳IREN更优论。
$NBIS 与 $IREN 之争简而言之： “$IREN 更好，因为——” 两只股票：分别下跌 6.16% 和 4.00%。 市场：🟩 🚀 https://t.co/vAdT3NbkcF
英文原文
$NBIS vs. $IREN debates in a nutshell: “ $IREN is better because —“ Both stocks: -6.16% and -4.00%. Markets: 🟩 🚀 https://t.co/vAdT3NbkcF
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澄清折旧应从资产可供使用时开始，而非实际使用时。
另外——“折旧仅在底层资产（GPU）投入使用时才开始计提”——这一说法存在细微差别且倾向于错误。我不确定 $IREN 是否有特殊规定，但一般而言，折旧从资产“可供使用”时开始，而非“实际使用”（暗示100%利用率阈值、客户工作负载或资产真正被使用）。例如，查看 $ORCL 的报告，其已考虑了利用率滞后因素。
英文原文
Also - "Depreciation only kicks in once the underlying assets (GPUs) are in use." - this is nuanced and leans false. I'm not sure if this is is different for $IREN in specific, but just in general depreciation starts when the asset is available for use, not in use implying your 100% utilization (thresholds), not for cusotmer worklods, or assets actually being in use. (eg. if we look at $ORCL's report it accounted for utilization lag).
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反驳收入无法覆盖折旧论，指出利用率提升带来经营杠杆效应。
“收入无法在折旧之上实现规模化增长”是错误的，你没有正确陈述单位定价（会下降）与经营杠杆（会规模化）的关系。在“前置投入”阶段，你拥有资产（折旧正在发生），但尚未产生全部收入。随着你为 $MSFT/$META 合同及其他客户启动集群，利用率提高，利润率随之扩张（可变）。因此，“收入无法在折旧之上实现规模化增长”是谬误，因为收入确实能通过利用率在折旧之上实现规模化增长（折旧是固定的，而收入是可变的）。只需看看 $CRWV 约 74% 的现金利润率，它足以覆盖折旧。（忽略 $CRWV 庞大的利息债务，而 $IREN 和 $NBIS 都没有这种债务）。
英文原文
"Revenue doesn't scale past depreciation" is wrong, you're not stating unit pricing (which degrades) vs. operating leverage (which scales) correctly. In the "front loading" phase, you have the assets (depreciation is active) but not the full rev yet. As you turn on clsuters for the $MSFT/ $META contract and others, utilization increases and margins expand (variable). So "revenue doesn't scale past depreciation" is false because revenue absolutely scales past depreciation due to utilization. (depreciation is fixed while revenue is variable) Just look at ~74% or so cash margins from $CRWV that cover the depreciation. (ignoring $CRWV's massive interest debt which both $IREN and $NBIS dont have).
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分析NBIS、IREN、CIFR及TE的投资逻辑与风险，并点评用户高波动组合。
从我的角度来看： $NBIS - 拥有最高的非对称上行潜力，因为除了核心的运营数据中心业务外，他们还有4家类似Robotaxi的子公司，同比增长超过100%。这只是一场等待市场定价部分价值（例如$UBER因Avride自动驾驶汽车大涨，但持有Avride的$NBIS却无反应）的游戏。 我非常看好Robotaxi和Avride。我不明白市场为何没看到这个机会（也许我们只是太早了，不过据我上次检查，机构持仓已从38%累积至流通盘的52%以上，所以有些人可能已经意识到了）。 $IREN - 潜在上行空间最大，但风险也是所有标的中最大的。仅为了达成与$MSFT的交易，他们就不得不稀释股权并支付58亿美元以上的硬件费用，且为了加速建设，每兆瓦成本高达200万美元。然而，这仅仅是为了变现一小部分产能，他们选择的是AI云路线，而非像$CIFR那样购买GPU做托管(Colo)。如果$IREN继续提供GPU服务，我会作为投资者极度担忧，因为执行存在不确定性，且变现“3GW管道”需要极其巨大的稀释。也许再等几个月会更好，因为短期投资者受损最重。 $CIFR - 可能是新云(Neocloud)板块中最安全的，因为他们有$AMZN和$GOOGL背书，资产负债表上有大量比特币以应对下一次减半事件，且虽然营收增长较慢，但通过超大规模云厂商合约获得了高毛利的托管(Colo)收入可见性。 $TE - 能源是个不错的博弈方向。 你的投资组合波动性极大哈哈（可能回撤50%），但如果你出身于WSB Reddit、加密货币和期权交易圈，那也没问题。
英文原文
Okay so from my perspective $NBIS - Highest asymmetrical upside possible because they have 4 subsidaries like robotaxis growing 100%+ Y/Y alongside their core operational DC business. It's just a waiting game until market prices in parts (eg. $UBER rose a ton from self driving cars with Avride, but $NBIS had no movement but owns Avride). I really really like robotaxis and Avride. I don't know how markets aren't seeing this opportunity (maybe we're just early, institutions accumulated over 52% of the float last i checked though from 38%, so some are probably aware). $IREN - highest possible upside, but biggest risk of them all. Just for their $MSFT deal they had to dilute and pay for $5.8B+ worth of hardware just to do the deal and ended up spending up $2m/mw in costs just for expedited buildout. However, that was just to monetize a small amount of capacity and they're going the AI cloud route instead of colo buying GPUS, unlike $CIFR. I'd be extremely worried as an investor if they kept doing GPU offerings because of execution uncertainty and extreme, extreme amount of dilution to monetize that "3 GW pipeline". Maybe it would be better off waiting another few months because near term investors are harmed the most. $CIFR - probably safest one in the neocloud sector since they are backstopped by $AMZN and $GOOGL, large amounts of bitcoin on balance sheet for next halving event, and are doing slower revenue growth but higher margin colo offerings with revenue visibility from hyperscaler deals $TE - energy is a good play. Your portfolio is incredibly volatile lol (can swing -50%) but it's fine if you're born from the depths of wsb reddit, crypto, and options.
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建议搭配稳健股以平衡NBIS的高波动风险。
@MMerrino569447 100% $NBIS 可能是上行空间最大的投资组合，哈哈。话虽如此，拥有一些更稳健的复利增长股如 $AVGO 或 $TSM 来追踪更广泛的板块增长是很好的，这样你就不会像最近那样因波动（30-40%的下跌和上涨）而感到过于恐慌。
英文原文
@MMerrino569447 100% $NBIS is probably the highest upside portfolio lol. That being said it's nice to have some steadier compounders like $AVGO or $TSM to track the broader sector growth so you don't get too scared on the volatility (30-40% drops and increases) like of recent.
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ASML跟踪晶圆厂周期，是长期复利资产，可替代直接受益股。
我没有纳入 $ASML，因为它的走势跟踪的是晶圆厂周期，而非像 $TSM 或三星电子那样涵盖整个 AI 资本支出交易（涵盖代工+存储+其他）。 但作为唯一的光刻机(EUV)供应商，它是一笔优秀的长期复利资产，尽管其表现不如追逐下一代 TPU/Blackwell 周期/LLM-agent 建设最直接受益者那样强劲。 我相信你可以用 ASML 替换上述任何一只股票。
英文原文
I didn't include $ASML since they track fab cycles rather than the whole AI capex trade which $TSM or Samsung Electronics does (foundry + memory + misc) But it's a good long term compounder as the sole EUV supplier vs. chasing the most direct beneficaries of the next TPU/Blackwell Cycle/LLM-agent buildout. I'm sure you can swap out any one of the above with ASML
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解析资本支出会计处理及子公司利润对NBIS和IREN估值的影响。
是的，资本支出(Capex)就是这样进行会计处理的，它会产生固定的折旧，但 Nebius 的营收增长幅度超过了折旧带来的拖累。 此外，子公司+三位数的增长直接计入净利润报表，没有运营支出(Opex)的拖累，而人们通常没有在模型中考虑这一点。 基于你关于杠杆的观点，$IREN 与微软(MSFT)的交易通过预付款实现了更高的杠杆化内部收益率(IRR)，而 $NBIS 的前置投入也意味着大部分现金消耗已结束，从而在 Q4 至 2027 年期间产生经营杠杆。
英文原文
yeah that's how capex gets accounted for, it creates fixed depreciation but nebius rev scales past depreciation drag. Also subsidiaries + triple digit grwoth drop in pure net income into the statement without opex drag, which people don't model for. going off your own points about leverage works with $IREN doing its msft deal with prepayment for higher levered irr, there's also operating leverage with nbis frontloading was majority of cash burn ending -> operating leverage q4 into 2027.
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澄清$NBIS因资本支出前置致2026年净利为负，但Q4盈利且长期利润率可观。
我接受你的提议，看看他们在第四季度财报中会披露什么！期待视频。 我想你可能忘了，SOP Toloka/Tripleten（同比增长100%+）会被计入净利润行。大多数 $NBIS 的资本支出(Capex)都前置到了接下来的4个季度（约50亿美元资本支出），导致2026财年净利润为负，但2026年第四季度盈利，这正是这张快照所显示的。 我们可能会看到管理层预测在2-3年内逐步实现20-30%的息税前利润(EBIT)利润率，而不是在建设阶段（约19.4%的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)）。
英文原文
I’ll take you up on that offer and see what they report in q4 earnings then! Looking forward to the video. think you might be forgetting sop Toloka/Tripleten (100%+ y/y) gets added to net income line. Most $NBIS capex spend is front loaded into next 4 quarters (~$5B capex) leading to negative net income FY 2026, but profitable q4 2026, which was this snapshot. We’ll likely see management projected 20-30% EBIT margins in 2-3 years over time rather than during the buildout phase (~19.4%ebitda).