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推测OSS为Anduril供应商，基于AI边缘计算需求匹配及AI模型概率分析。
披露：我目前无持仓，且不计划建仓。（原因：已持有过多高贝塔股票）。 我想发布一些关于 Anduril 供应链公司的投机性研究，这是在研究 $KRKNF | Kraken Robotics 之后进行的。 这是 $OSS（市值 1.1554 亿美元）。 简而言之：Anduril 为美国陆军推出了 Effects-Short Range (LE-SR) 系统。OSS 是一家边缘 AI 基础设施公司。尽管 Anduril 收购了竞争对手 Klas（一家坚固型 AI 边缘计算公司），但 $OSS 似乎是 Anduril 的供应商。 OSS 宣布获得一份 650 万美元的合同，交付 80 台“高性能服务器和现场可编程门阵列(FPGA)系统……用于支持美国军事行动的移动情报平台”。 1. OSS 的专业领域：为移动战术军事环境中的边缘 AI/ML 提供高性能、加固型 FPGA 和服务器系统。 2. Anduril 的需求：LE-SR (Altius 600) 平台需要坚固、紧凑的计算能力，以便在战术边缘自主运行其 Lattice AI 软件。 _ 650 万美元用于 80 台 3U SDS 加固服务器和 FPGA 系统。功能包括传感器数据采集、AI 生成的实时分析以及战术环境下的存储：这与 Lattice 对集群管理的需求相符： 硬件：AMD EPYC 9004 “Genoa” 处理器，最多七个 PCIe Gen4 x16 插槽用于 GPU/FPGA 集成，支持热插拔存储高达 1 PB，并针对 -40°C 至 70°C 的温度进行加固。 适合指挥控制(C2)：这些系统适合地面枢纽而非无人机载荷，支持操作员在环接口和多资产协调。 ________ 3. 买家被描述为一家“领先的国防和技术解决方案公司”。OSS 强调向国防领域转型（目前约占收入的 50%），此交易是其一系列成果的一部分，包括 600 万美元的国防部(DoD)续约和其他军事订单。 唯一缺失的是客户名称，鉴于国防承包商的性质，这通常保密，但看起来像是 Anduril，且是回头客（与该客户的额外开发和平台机会正在进行中）。 关于 OSS <-> Anduril 合同和信息的更深入内容是通过前沿模型 Deep Research 工具获取的： Gemini - 85% 的概率 Anthropic Claude - 75-80% 的概率 OpenAI ChatGPT - 70% 的概率 XAI Grok - 40-45% 的概率 认为 OSS 是 Anduril 的供应商。 如果 OSS 确实是 Anduril 的供应商并从 650 万美元的合同扩展，那么鉴于该国防承包商带来的未来收入潜力，其市值很可能从 1.2 亿美元向上重估。如果不是，鉴于其他美国军方合同，它目前的市值也是合理的。 支持 Anduril 使用 OSS 这一假设的间接证据似乎很有说服力。 我想在财报发布前发布这个看看是否正确（如果他们提到的话）。不过我不打算在此建仓，因为像 $NBIS 这样的高贝塔股票具有更高的非对称回报，但如果 $OSS 涨 5 倍，我会很遗憾。 我偶尔会研究一些小公司看看是否值得投资，但只是想出于好玩发布这个看看是否正确。
英文原文
Disclosure: I have no positions and don't plan on initiating any. (Reason: have too many high-beta stocks). I just wanted to publish some speculative research I did on Anduril supply chain companies after researching $KRKNF | Kraken Robotics. This is $OSS ($115.54M MC). TLDR: Anduril launched Effects-Short Range (LE-SR) for the US Army. OSS is an edge AI infra. $OSS seems like a Andruil supplier, despite Andruil aquiring Klas, a competing rugged AI edge company. OSS has announced a contract of $6.5 million to deliver 80 “high-performance servers and field-programmable gate array systems… for a mobile intelligence platform supporting U.S. military operations.” 1. OSS's specialization: High-performance, ruggedized FPGA and server systems for AI/ML at the edge in mobile, tactical military environments. 2. Anduril's requirement: The LE-SR (Altius 600) platform requires rugged, compact computing to run its Lattice AI software autonomously at the tactical edge. _ $6.5 million for 80 3U SDS rugged servers and FPGA systems. Functions include sensor data collection, AI-generated real-time analysis, and storage in tactical settings: mirroring Lattice's requirements for swarm management: Hardware: AMD EPYC 9004 “Genoa” processors, up to seven PCIe Gen4 x16 slots for GPU/FPGA integration, hot-swappable storage up to 1 petabyte, and ruggedization for -40°C to 70°C temperatures. Fit for C2: The systems suit ground-based hubs rather than drone payloads, supporting operator-on-the-loop interfaces and multi-asset coordination. ________ 3. The buyer is described as a "leading defense and technology solutions company". OSS has emphasized shifting to defense (now ~50% of revenue), with this deal part of a streak including $6M DoD renewals and other military wins The only missing piece is the customer name, which, given the military contractors, is often kept confidential, but it seems like its Anduril and it's a repeat-client (Additional development and platform opportunities are underway with this customer). A more in-depth information about OSS <-> Andruil contracts and info were fed through frontier model Deep Research tools: Gemini - 85% assigned probability Antropic Claude - 75-80% assigned probability OpenAI ChatGPT - 70% assigned probability XAI Grok - 40-45% assigned probability of OSS being the Andruil supplier. In the chance OSS is an Anduril supplier and scales up from the $6.5M contract, then it's likely to be re-rated upward from a $120m marketcap from high future revenue potential from this defense contractor. If not, then it deserves its current market-cap anyway due to other US Military contracts. The circumstantial evidence supporting the hypothesis of Anduril using OSS seems compelling. Thought it would be fun to post this before their ER to see if it's right or not (if they ever mention it). I don't plan on taking positions in this though since other high-beta stocks like $NBIS have higher asymmetrical return, but if $OSS 5x's, I'll be sad. I do look into small companies on the side to see if it's worth investing or not but just wanted to publish this for fun to see if it's right.
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看好AMD上行潜力及HOOD长期价值，短期略高估
两者都是优质的多头标的，$AMD 拥有极高的上行潜力（仅参考 $NVDA 的市值即可见），且 Sam Altman 和 Elon 确认 AMD 在前沿模型中具有极高效用，这是极其积极的信号。 $HOOD 是一家世代级的公司。高确信度的长期持有。短期来看，我认为它像 $RKLB 一样略微高估。
英文原文
Both good longs, $AMD has extremely high upside potential (just looking at $NVDA's marketcap) and Sam Altman/Elon confirming AMD has high utility for frontier models is extremely positive. $HOOD generational company. High conviction long term. Short-term I'd argue it's a tad overvalued like $RKLB.
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TI文章揭示ORCL HPC低毛利，对比NBIS高毛利，市场因Altman承诺对ORCL存疑。
部分原因在于 TI 的抹黑文章，显示 $ORCL 因其 AI 高性能计算(HPC) 部门利用率低、编排失败，毛利率仅为 14%，而 $NBIS 等目前毛利率为 71.4%（平均 50-70%）。 这充分表明 HPC 部门是护城河，甚至超大规模云厂商在基础设施建设上也失败了。 除此之外，Sam Altman 向每家超大规模云厂商承诺了高得离谱的未来收入，因此市场对 Oracle 持有一定的怀疑态度。
英文原文
Well part of it is the TI hit piece which showed $ORCL was only doing 14% gross margins for their AI HPC segments due to low utilization, orchestration failures, while $NBIS and others were currently sitting at 71.4% (50-70% avg) Just goes to show HPC segments are moats and that even hyperscaleds failed on buildouts. Apart from that, Sam Altman has been promising every single hyperscaler stupidly high forward revenue, so markets are pricing in a bit of skepticism with Oracle.
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AMD市值潜力取决于AI模型应用，但鉴于对台积电依赖，仓位较小。
嗯，如果萨姆·阿尔特曼(Sam Altman)和埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)关于前沿模型能充分利用AMD的说法属实，$AMD 的市值潜力有望达到 $NVDA 目前的水平。不过，OpenAI 目前承诺每年为 $AMD 带来额外数百亿美元的前瞻性收入，这显得有些过于乐观，让我们拭目以待。这也正是我的 $AMD 仓位相对于 $TSM 较小的原因，以及我说过无需将 AMD 与 NVDA 或 $IREN 与 $NBIS 进行比较的原因，因为所有环节都依赖于 $TSM。
英文原文
Hmm, $AMD has potential to be $NVDA’s current market cap if what Sam Altman + Elon Musk says is true in how frontier models can use it well. Then again OpenAi is promising too many things right now in terms of an additional tens of billions of forward revenue a year to $AMD, so we’ll see. That’s kind of why my AMD position sizes were small relative to $TSM, and why I’ve said you don’t need to compare AMD to NVDA or $IREN to $NBIS when every single thing is reliant on $TSM
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建议现金党通过卖出CSP期权以低价获取权利金。
@rioferdy838 @Mattyice112233 @Docofgothm 对于 $NBIS 和矿企，如果你是现金党，是的，请卖出接近当前行权价（如 $105）的云服务提供商(CSP)期权，因为你的目标是以最低价格被指派并获取权利金。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 @Mattyice112233 @Docofgothm With $NBIS and miners if you’re cash gang, yeah write CSPs closer to current strike like $105 since your goal is to get assigned + premium at the lowest prices
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博主展示其DUOL、PLTR、HIMS持仓，戏称其市值将达万亿并询问是否卖课。
@RJCcapital 你怎么看我的投资组合 @DeepValueBagger @RJCcapital 它们都将成为10万亿美元市值的公司。 1. $DUOL - 50万亿美元的语言AI基础设施。 2. $PLTR - 从这里起涨100倍 - 50万亿美元的利息利润。 3. $HIMS - 500万亿美元的伟哥（🐔 pills）。世界需要它。 值得卖课吗？
英文原文
@RJCcapital What do you think of my port @DeepValueBagger @RJCcapital they all will be 10T companies 1. $DUOL - 50T AI infrastructure for language 2. $PLTR - 100x from here - 50T off interest profit. 3. $HIMS- 500T off 🐔 pills. The world needs it. Is it worth selling a course too?
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建议RDDT收购SNAP并削减成本以盈利，同时推出新产品。
举个例子： $RDDT 应该尝试收购 $SNAP，然后通过削减增强现实(AR)业务部门、精简管理层以及降低谷歌云(GCP)成本来实现盈利（这很容易）。监管机构不会阻止这一收购，但会阻止 $META 收购它。 然后推出类似 X 银行服务的新产品。Reddit 在其 NFT 市场业务上曾有过一些活力，但从未跟进落实。
英文原文
So for examples: $RDDT should try and acquire $SNAP then turn it profitable (easy) by cutting AR segments, management, cutting GCP costs. (Regulators wouldn’t block this but they’d block $META acquiring it). Then go out and launch new products like what X does with banking. Reddit had some sparks of life with their NFT marketplace stuff, but they never followed through.
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不建议在NBIS暴跌时卖看跌期权，因低估且可能反弹。
@Mattyice112233 @Docofgothm 在 $NBIS 出现此类极端下跌时，我不卖出看跌期权(Cash-Secured Puts)，因为它随时可能反弹至 $130+ 的行权价。鉴于当前的权利金，像 $160+ 这样深度虚值(Far OTM)的期权并不值得操作。你并不总是需要卖出期权，尤其是当你认为某只股票被极度低估时。
英文原文
@Mattyice112233 @Docofgothm I don't sell CC's on $NBIS on extreme drops like this since it can rebound to $130+ strikes any day. Far OTM ones like $160+ are not worth it given current premiums. You don't always need to write options, especially if you think a stock is extremely undervalued.
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作者对政府停摆成为市场最大催化剂感到意外。
从逻辑上讲这说得通。但我觉得很奇怪，因为没人预料到这次会成为历史上最长的政府停摆。当利率下调、季节性因素和财报等更常规的催化剂在其他年份发挥作用时，将政府停摆35天以上后的重新开放视为最大的催化剂之一，感觉就很怪异。
英文原文
It makes sense logically. But I mean it's weird because nobody expected this to be the longest government shutdown in history. And when you have rate cuts, seasonality, earnings, as more normal catalysts for other years, it feels weird to talk about the government re-opening after 35+ days as one of the largest catalysts.
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类比$HOOD，看好$RDDT利用高利润进行收购以驱动营收增长。
与$HOOD（金融科技）类似的论点也适用于$RDDT（社交媒体）： 高粘性用户群，极高的盈利能力 -> 为该用户群推出新产品 -> 通过利润进行收购 -> 增长营收。 $RDDT -> 高粘性用户群，极高的盈利能力 -> 新产品发布（严格来说不是，但在某种意义上是，比如出售数据用于AI） -> 通过利润进行收购（缺失） -> 增长营收。 Reddit本季度才首次实现持续盈利，因此我希望未来几个季度能通过利润驱动收购来推动营收增长，就像Facebook通过收购WhatsApp/Instagram实现增长一样。
英文原文
Also similar thesis to $HOOD (fintech) for $RDDT (social media) Sticky customer base, extreme profitability -> new product launches for that customer base -> acquisitions through profitability -> grow revenue. $RDDT -> sticky customer base, extreme profitability -> new product launches (not really, but kinda in a sense, like selling data for AI) -> acquisitions through profitability (missing) -> grow revenue. Reddit only achieved consistent profitability this quarter, so I'm hoping acquisitions through profits would drive forward revenue like how Facebook grew acquiring whatsapp/instagram in the next few quarters.
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看好RDDT网络效应及RKLB太空赛道潜力，类比META与HOOD估值逻辑。
是的，量子计算一直是个泡沫，但鉴于市场有时非理性，我不做空。至于互联网上最爱/最恨的社区，我个人认为 $RDDT 的规模化路径很清晰：作为全球第七大网站，凭借网络效应它将长期存在。回顾推特上市时，估值4000亿美元，年营收37-50亿（自由现金流为负），年增长20-30%。$RDDT 季度营收5.85亿，毛利率91%，EBITDA 2.36亿（占营收40%），估值约340亿。鉴于它不像 $META 那样每次收购都面临全球反垄断审查，我认为 Reddit 有潜力像 $HOOD 那样增长，即在IPO后不久就大量盈利并持续扩大利润率。因此，它可以专注于利用粘性用户群扩大营收/收购（例如 Robinhood 收购加密货币交易所）。是的，$RKLB 有清晰的轨迹走向3500亿美元+市值，像 SpaceX 一样，因为太空应用众多且涉及巨大国家安全风险，大量投资将涌入该领域。
英文原文
Yeah quantum was always a bubble, but I don't short given how irrational they are sometimes. As for the Internet's favorite/most hated community, I personally see the path to scale for $RDDT just how it's the 7th most popular website on the internet and it will be around for awhile just due to network effect. Just going back to Twitter when it was public, it was valued at $40B, doing $3.7-5B yearly revenue (with negative FCF) growing roughly 20-30% Y/Y. $RDDT is doing $585m quarterly revenue, 91% gross margins, 236M EBITDA (40% of revenue) ~34B valuation. And given it's not at the scale of $META where every acquisition has global anti-trust lawyers on their asses, I just see Reddit with the potential to grow like $HOOD where they're printing money so close to after IPO and keeps on expanding margins. So they can just focus on expanding revenue/acquisitions with their sticky userbase (eg. how Robinhood acquired crypto exchanges). Yeah $RKLB has such a clear trajectory toward $350B+ MC like SpaceX since there's so many applications you can do with Space + huge national security risk so lot of investments will pour into the sector.
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分析CRWV收购失败及高息债务劣势，对比NBIS优势并指出政府合同潜力。
对于 $CRWV 而言，问题在于其收购 $CORZ 未能获批。Core Scientific 本应比那 90 亿美元的收购价带来更大价值。若能在其现有合同基础上，通过收购为全栈模型（Full Stack Model）增加更多 GW 级算力，将是极度看涨（omega bullish）的利好。 Coreweave 每年还有超过 10 亿美元的利息债务，这对自由现金流（FCF）和利润率造成了极大拖累（相比之下，$NBIS、$CIFR、$IREN 使用的是可转换票据）。 $NBIS 已经实现了 $CRWV 的全栈垂直整合，但拥有更高的利用率、更好的编排/性能（根据其白皮书）、无巨额债务利息以及高积压订单，因此市场看到了其他风险更低、上行空间更大的替代方案。 不过，如果 $CRWV 获得美国政府合同批准，那将是另一个巨大的看涨催化剂。但我们已经看到像与 $META 签订的 140 亿美元这样的大型合同积压订单，然而其债务利息确实荒谬。
英文原文
For $CRWV it was $CORZ acquisition failing to get approved. Core scientific would have delivered so much more value than that 9B price tag. Having more GW capacity added to their full stack model (on top of their existing contract with them), would have been omega bullish with the acquisition. Coreweave also has $1B+ in interest debt a year, which is an extremely big drag on FCF + margins (compared to $NBIS, $CIFR, $IREN with did convertible notes). $NBIS already achieved what $CRWV did with full-stack vertical integration, but higher utilization + better orchestration/performance (as per their whitepaper) + no massive interest on debt + high backlogs, so markets see other lower risk, higher upside, alternatives emerging. If $CRWV get approved for US Gov contracts though, that would be another huge catalyst upside. But we already have visibility into large contracted backlogs like $14B with $META but the debt interest is just ridiculous.
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政府重开引发资产抛售，看好NBIS、META等优质资产错杀机会。
政府重新开放（可能在14号左右）真是个奇怪的催化剂，但确实如此。现在确实是资产抛售。没想到$BTC会再次跌破10万美元，但它确实跌了。然后是$NBIS，其核心业务（50-70%+利润率）明年ARR达50亿美元（无增长），净资产值110亿美元+，其中58亿为现金。市值270亿美元。$META，远期市盈率<22或更低？我听说有19倍市盈率的说法，我只是凭记忆。它仍在快速增长，在这个规模下更令人印象深刻。只是叙事和一次性税收导致价格下跌。还有其他有趣的买入如$RKLB、$RDDT等，但这类修正会抹去很多泡沫如$OKLO、$RGTI，但优质资产也遭殃。
英文原文
Gov reopening (likely around ~14th) is such a weird catalyst but it is. Yeah it's an asset fire sale right now. Didn't think $BTC would go below $100k again but it did. Then there's $NBIS, $5B ARR (50-70%+ margin) core business 1Y from now (without any growth), and NAV 11B+ with 5.8B of it cash. Valued at $27B. $META, <22 forward p/e or less? I've heard 19 p/e floated, I'm just going off the top of my head. It's still growing rapidly, which is even more impressive at that scale. Just narratives and one-time-tax dropped price. Lot of other fun buys like $RKLB, $RDDT and others too, but these types of corrections wipe off a lot of froth like $OKLO, $RGTI, but great assets get caught in the crossfire.
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博主复盘近期看错方向的高确信度标的，分析原因并重申长期逻辑。
通常我在短期时间框架上会出错，但在任何高确信度的方向上我始终是正确的。 最近主要犯错的三个案例是：$LTC ETF 催化剂判断失误，即使获批后也从 $113 跌至 $82.5。这可能是最奇怪的事情之一，尽管政府停摆期间获批概率高达 95% 却遭遇延迟，随后又在停摆期间随机获批（连我都不知道），然后随大盘高贝塔抛售而暴跌。 另一个是 $SG，我认为它会从 $7.5-$8.3 反弹，但现在是 $6.3，消费品领域存在巨大的熊市。因此它受到了 $CMG、$CAVA、$KRUS 等抛售的影响。 最后一个是 $VIRT，尤其是现在市盈率仅为 7 或类似的荒谬水平。他们发布了财报，每股收益 $1.05 对比预期 $0.97-$1.04（超预期），营收 $4.67 亿对比预期 $4.184 亿-$4.497 亿（超预期），但依然被抛售。（这更多是一种非对称对冲），但即使基本面如此，我也不明白为什么它的市盈率约为 7.5。人们总说 X 是一只伟大的价值投资股票，交易市盈率约为 15，而这是个位数市盈率（但更受零售交易活动的周期性影响，不过 $HOOD 正在报告创纪录数据，所以应该是一个很好的代理指标）。 对我来说这仍然是一个极端的谜团……我认为它被低估了，尤其是考虑到回购，可能会成为另一个 $UPWK。 其他像核能 SPAC 之类我为了好玩买的，属于半赌博的迷因股，所以下跌更容易理解。通常如果我背后有论点支撑，那么准确率会更高。 像 $SNAP、$FLY 和其他一些我坚持是 2026 年布局的股票，短期并不重要。像 $WLAC 这类是 IPO 催化剂交易，所以在其低流通盘 SPAC 阶段的高贝塔波动在事件发生前意义不大。
英文原文
Usually only on short term time-frames I'm wrong but I've always been directionally right for anything higher conviction. Recently main three were I got wrong were the $LTC ETF catalyst wrong, even after approval it dropped from $113 -> $82.5. Probably one of the weirdest things since it got delayed even despite 95% approval odds from gov shutdown then randomly approved during shutdown (and even I didn't know about it). Then just tanked on broader market high beta sell offs. The other was $SG, thought it would rebound from $7.5-$8.3 or so but it's $6.3, there's a huge bear market on anything consumer. So it got affected by $CMG, $CAVA, $KRUS, etc. selloffs. The last was $VIRT, especially now with a p/e of 7 or something ridiculous. They reported earnings and $1.05 vs. $0.97 - $1.04 (beat) and $467.0 million revenue vs. $418.4 million - $449.7 million (beat), but still sold off. (This was more of an asymmetrical hedge) but even with fundamentals, I have no clue why it's ~7.5 P/E. People always are like X is a great value investor stock trading at ~15 P/E, this is single digit P/E (but more cyclical on retail trading activity, but $HOOD is reporting record numbers so should be a good proxy). Still an extreme enigma to me... I think it's undervalued, especially with buybacks and might be another $UPWK. Other stuff like nuclear SPACs I bought for fun were half-gambling memes so more understandable if they went down. Usually if I put a thesis behind it then it's more accurate. Stuff like $SNAP, $FLY, and others I've maintained was a 2026 play, so short term doesn't really matter. Things like $WLAC were IPO catalyst plays so high-beta movement during its low float SPAC days doesn't really mean much until the event happens.
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感冒简评：META/NBIS错杀强买，警示IREN/ETH，宏观看多AI基建。
11月4日 - 个股分析 + 宏观 清仓抛售：$META • $NBIS • $IBIT 强烈买入：$RDDT • $RKLB • $WLAC • $CIFR • $LTC • $SOL • $CORZ 存储：南亚科 $2408，SK海力士 $HXSCL，美光 $MU 买入：$AMZN • $DELL • $SMCI • $ALAB • $CRDO • $TSM • $AMD • $FLNC • $TE 警示：$IREN • $ETH • $BMNR • $CRCL 量子计算：$IONQ • $RGTI • $QBTS 通常我会逐一列表，列出更多的买卖建议并解释每一个原因，但我感冒了。 所以今天只做极简版，懒得研究更多股票。喝着汤，只关注几只股票并给出更广泛的概述。（如果有人问，我会帮忙解释。） $META： 再次强烈、强烈、强烈建议在财报大跌15%+及盘后下跌时买入。 营收超预期。每股收益(EPS)超预期。远期盈利完好。 如果计入一次性税收，EPS为$7.25对$6.67，但显示为$1.05（大幅不及预期），导致算法立即抛售。随后的抛售中，机械性资金流通常会将价格推得更低，但趋势通常在1-2周内反转。 利用这一点。 像“Meta在AI上花费太多”这样的叙事可能是噪音。每家Mag7公司都在增加AI资本支出，除非你从云/ASIC角度争论，否则Meta并没有做任何异常的事。有时真正的原因更愚蠢，比如算法未能识别一次性税收的标准化。 当低贝塔值的Mag7因非实质性原因下跌16%+时，有很大的获利潜力。 警示类别摘要： 不是叫卖，只是给出公平警示，让人们自行决定。 量子计算：仍无收入证明价格飙升的合理性。某些数据中心股票，即使回调后，也有远期营收+自由现金流支撑估值。 $ETH：高于$3K不是强买入（自$4.8K以来立场相同）。 $BMNR：ETH国库策略；以溢价追踪ETH价格。除非有国有化潜力（如$MSTR），否则国库策略不好。 $CRCL：下个月有巨大、巨大、巨大的股份解禁。 $IREN：$MSFT合同在标题上看起来很棒（$9B+营收，超大规模云厂商交易），但实际上利润率很差。 交易不是纯托管；$IREN吸收了~$5.8B的GPU+辅助设备资本支出。 毛利率：最好只有30%出头，自由现金流盈利能力可能降至个位数。相比之下，$NBIS的交易结构更好（$11.6M/MW/yr vs $9.7M/MW/yr）。 交易验证了超大规模云厂商将与IREN签约（正面），但交易本身很糟糕。不是卖出，只是警示那些因标题而FOMO的人。 如果你想FOMO进什么，$CIFR（AWS合同）更有意义。 _ 宏观观点： 市场一直在抛售高贝塔值股票，可能只是正常回调。 逆风： 鲍威尔暗示第三次降息不确定 -> 重新定价。 政府停摆可能延长（短期逆风）。历史上，重新开放后回调会迅速反转。 事件市场定价11月14日为结束日期（还有9天）。 如果像$NBIS（-7.9%）这样拥有惊人远期营收支撑的名字没有实质性变化，大跌时是极好的买入机会。还有像$RDDT这样发布了好财报却跌了7%的股票，也是强烈的买入机会。 泡沫在美联储收紧时破裂。我们已经有了两次降息，还有一次很可能。不要跟随那个预测了过去1次崩溃中5000次的《富爸爸穷爸爸》家伙。 AI ≠ 泡沫 yet - 由Mag7财报、真实营收和利润支撑。但如果OpenAI继续在没有资金的情况下过度承诺合同，以后可能开始像泡沫（1-2年后的投影风险）。 摘要：随着降息后的宽松，市场可能趋势向上。 数据中心建设保持完整（Mag7财报显示巨大的AI资本支出）。 回调中保持强劲的板块：存储 • 能源 • 半导体 • 连接 • 新云 保持多头，在这些回调中建立仓位
英文原文
November 4th - Stock Analysis + Macro Fire Sale: $META • $NBIS • $IBIT Strong Buys: $RDDT • $RKLB • $WLAC • $CIFR • $LTC • $SOL • $CORZ Memory: Nanya $2408, SK Hynix $HXSCL, $MU Buy: $AMZN • $DELL • $SMCI • $ALAB • $CRDO • $TSM • $AMD • $FLNC • $TE Warnings: $IREN • $ETH • $BMNR • $CRCLQuantum: $IONQ • $RGTI • $QBTS Normally I'd go down the list, have more buy/sells, and talk about every single explanation but I caught a cold. So just doing an extremely light version today and didn’t feel like researching more stocks. Just focusing on a few with a broader overview while I drink some soup. (Will help explain if someone asks though.) $META: Once again, Strong, Strong, Strong Buy on the 15%+ earnings drop and post-ER drop. Beat on Revenue. Beat on EPS. Forward earnings intact. If you factor in one-time tax, EPS was $7.25 to $6.67, but it showed as $1.05 (huge miss), which led to algorithmic sell-offs immediately after. Following sell-offs, mechanical flows often push prices lower, but trends usually reverse in 1–2 weeks. Take advantage of this. Narratives like “Meta spending too much on AI” are likely noise. Every Mag7 company is increasing AI capex, Meta isn’t doing anything unusual unless you argue from a cloud/ASIC standpoint. Sometimes the real reason is dumber like algorithms not recognizing one-time tax normalization. Lot of profit potential when lower-beta Mag7 drops 16%+ on nothing material. Warnings Category TLDR: Not calling sells, just giving fair warnings so people can decide for themselves. Quantum: Still no revenue to justify price surges. Certain data center stocks, even after corrections, have forward revenue + FCF to back valuations. $ETH: Not a strong buy above $3K (same stance since $4.8K). $BMNR: ETH treasury play; tracks ETH price with a premium. Treasury plays aren’t good unless potential for nationalization (eg. $MSTR). $CRCL: Massive, massive, massive share unlock coming next month. $IREN: The $MSFT contract looks great in headlines ($9B+ revenue, Hyperscaler deal), but in reality, margins are poor. Deal isn’t pure colo; $IREN absorbs ~$5.8B capex in GPUs + ancillary equipment. Gross margins: low 30s at best, can drop to single-digit FCF profitability. By comparison, $NBIS had a structurally better deal ($11.6M/MW/yr vs $9.7M/MW/yr). The deal validated that hyperscalers will sign with IREN (positive), but the deal itself was terrible.Not a sell, just a warning for people FOMOing the headline. If you want to FOMO into something, $CIFR (AWS contract) makes more sense. _ Macro View: Markets have been selling off high-beta stocks, likely just a normal correction. Headwinds: Powell signaling a third rate cut isn’t certain -> repricing. Gov shutdown likely extends (short-term headwind). Historically, corrections reverse quickly after reopen. Event markets price Nov 14th as end date (9 days out). If there’s no material change for names like $NBIS (-7.9%), backed by insane forward revenue, great buy on the dip. Also stuff like $RDDT that posted great ER but dropped 7.% also strong buying opportunity. Bubbles pop under Fed tightening. We've had two rate cuts, and another still likely. Don’t follow the Rich Dad Poor Dad dude who predicted 5000 of the last 1 crashes. AI ≠ bubble yet - backed by Mag7 earnings, real revenue, and profits. But if OpenAI keeps over-promising contracts without funds, it could start resembling one later (projection risk 1–2 years out). TLDR: Markets likely trend higher as easing follows rate cuts. Data center buildout remains intact (Mag7 earnings show huge AI capex). Sectors that stay strong on corrections: Memory • Energy • Semi • Connectivity • Neoclouds Stay long and build positions on these dips
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计划向META定投并逢高加仓NBIS，视其为绝佳买入机会。
@rioferdy838 @Nykonikus @John12321043976 @DeepValueBagger 我将在 $610 的价格向 $META 定投(DCA)六位数的资金。对于 $NBIS，如果我会通过减仓其他头寸来获利了结，我会始终在多头仓位上进行向上摊平成本(Cost Average Up)。 但如果其他人目前没有在这些股票上持有头寸，这正是一个绝佳的买入机会。
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@rioferdy838 @Nykonikus @John12321043976 @DeepValueBagger I’ll DCA another 6 figures into $META at $610. For $NBIS I’ll always cost average up for longs if I trim other positions But if others don’t have positions they want in those right now it’s an amazing buying opportunity
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Meta回调系算法抛售，降息预期降温及停摆风险构成逆风。
我的意思是，有时市场回调并不需要新闻头条来解释。人们总喜欢给事件赋予某种叙事，比如 Meta 的 AI 资本支出(AI Capex)，但我确信这只是一次性税收引发的算法抛售(algorithmic selloff)导致的机械性下行。我们刚经历了第二次降息，但由于鲍威尔(Powell)的言论使得第三次降息的可能性大幅降低，市场开始以高贝塔(high beta)的方式对此进行定价。此外，政府停摆(shutdown)延长至15日之后的概率很大，这将是一个令人烦恼的逆风(headwind)。
英文原文
I mean sometimes corrections happen without the need for a headline. People always like to assign some type of narrative with something like with Meta its AI capex spend but pretty sure it was just algorithmic selloff from one-time tax into mechanical flows downward. We just got a second rate cut, but since a third is greatly reduced after powell’s comments markets started to price that in with high beta. There’s also big probabilities of shutdown extending past the 15th, and that’s going to be an annoying headwind
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宏观利空非个股问题，$NBIS基本面强劲，视为买入机会。
@John12321043976 @DeepValueBagger 这只是宏观层面的影响，并非个股自身的问题，因此这是一个买入机会。大多数高贝塔(高Beta)个股在没有消息的情况下今天都下跌了。但区别在于 $NBIS 拥有支撑基本面的极高远期收益(Forward Earnings)，所以这只是一个等待游戏。
英文原文
@John12321043976 @DeepValueBagger This is just macro, not happened to the individual stock so it’s a buying opportunity. Most high beta names without any news are down today. But difference is $NBIS has stupidly high forward earnings to back up fundamentals so it’s just a waiting game
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独立建设促专业化，全栈是护城河，苹果或向上游整合。
@DeepValueBagger 是的，观察得很准，随着各自独立建设，我们很可能会看到专业化分工的出现。 全栈能力如何构建构成了护城河，像 $NBIS 这样的模式目前尚未被复制。 不过，你也可以指出 $APPL 与 $QLCM 的情况，在熊市(🐻case)情景下，苹果正在向上游整合。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Yeah good observation, we’ll likely see specializations emerge from separate buildout. It is a moat in how you do full stack and some models like $NBIS haven’t been replicated yet. Then again you can point out $APPL vs $QLCM with Apple sucking back up the stack as the 🐻case
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澄清S+评级含义，指出NBIS因高利润和非对称回报入选。
@onceinliftime3 根据 @DeepValueBagger 的说法，S+ 等级是虚构的。但这仅意味着它是评级最高的类别。$NBIS 是唯一符合标准的 Neocloud（新云）公司，因其高利润率和非对称回报潜力。
英文原文
@onceinliftime3 According to @DeepValueBagger S+ is made up. But it just means it’s the highest rated category. $NBIS was the only Neocloud that fits due to high margins and asymmetrical return
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IREN交易因承担高额CapEx且毛利远低于NBIS而显得糟糕。
当你关注自由现金流(FCF)而非营收数字时，$IREN 的交易看起来糟糕得多，因为它并非纯粹的托管服务(Colo)。当标准化至 300 MW 并对比微软(MSFT)的交易时，$IREN 预计毛利率仅为 30% 左右，甚至在悲观情景下为低个位数，而 $NBIS 则超过 50%（至少基于初步计算，我需要重新审视）。在这种情况下，$IREN 自行承担了 58 亿美元的 GPU 及辅助设备资本支出(CapEx)。
英文原文
The deal looks a lot worse for $IREN when you look into FCF generated more instead of revenue numbers since it's not pure colo. When you normalize to 300 MW and compare MSFT deals $IREN is projected to do ~30s gross or even low single digits in bear cases, and $NBIS ~50%+ (at least from initial calculations, I need to revisit) In this case, IREN is taking on the $5.8 billion CapEx for the GPUs and ancillary equipment itself.
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对比CIFR与IREN，认为前者估值合理，后者合同条款差且利润率低。
对于 $CIFR，当前盈利无关紧要，市场定价基于远期盈利。乍看之下，除了通过 Fluidstack 现有的 $GOOGL 合作外，AWS 的交易看起来棒极了。因此其 20% 的涨幅实至名归。 另一方面，$IREN 的合同细看之下越来越糟。 营收不重要，重要的是该营收带来的自由现金流(FCF)/利润率，尤其是考虑到他们正在花费 58 亿美元购买 GPU。我看过一些保守情景测算，显示其年化营业利润仅约 9800 万美元/年，这真的太低了。 即便乐观估计，毛利率也在 30% 以下甚至 20% 出头，而非其他人引用的 90%+ 的高性能计算(HPC)板块。这才是规模化后的利润率现实。 $IREN 是在购买资产，而非人们一直声称的提供托管服务(colocation service)。 $NBIS 与微软(MSFT)的交易在标准化至 300MW 后，其盈利能力和毛利率远优于 $IREN。当然，我还需要花更多时间进行建模。
英文原文
For $CIFR, doesn't matter about current earnings, market prices in forward earnings. And at first glance AWS deal looks amazing on top of their existing $GOOGL deals through Fluidstack. So well deserving of their 20% bump. For $IREN on the other hand, the contract worse and worse when you examine it more. Revenue does not matter. FCF/margins from that revenue is what matters, especially since they're spending $5.8bn GPUs. I've seen some conservative-case calculations where they generate ~Annualized operating profit 98m+/year, which is really low. Even so optimistically, gross margins are in the <30s or even 20s, and not the 90%+ HPC segments that others are quoting. This is the reality of margins at scale. IREN is buying the asset, rather than the colocation service people kept claiming $IREN would do. $NBIS deal with MSFT was extremely better than IREN’s in terms of profitability and margins when normalized to 300 MW. But of course I need to spend more time on modeling.
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对比NBIS与IREN微软合约，前者利润率更高且能产生自由现金流。
经过更深入的研究，$NBIS 与 $MSFT 的交易在标准化至 300 MW 后，其盈利能力和利润率似乎远优于 $IREN。 这不仅仅关乎营收，因为如果不能产生自由现金流(FCF)，营收就没那么有用。 对于 $IREN： 总合同价值 97 亿美元 GPU 资本支出(Capex) 58 亿美元，包括辅助设备 ~38% 的毛利率。 $NBIS 51.76%+ 的毛利率。 我需要做更多计算来验证，这只是在交易差异方面的一次快速深度研究计算。
英文原文
After looking into it more, looks like $NBIS's deal with $MSFT was largely better than $IREN's in terms of profitability and margins when normalized to 300 MW. It's not purely about revenue, since if you're not generating FCF from it, it's not that useful. For $IREN: $9.7bn total contract value $5.8bn GPU capex, including ancillaries ~38% gross margin. $NBIS 51.76%+ gross margin. I need to do more calculations to verify, this was just a quick deep-research calculation in terms of deal differences.
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IREN/CIFR涨幅回吐，NBIS回调提供买入良机。
哇，$IREN 和 $CIFR 刚刚抹去了其涨幅。至少对于 $IREN 而言，我想市场已经提前计入了超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)的合同预期。 不过 $CIFR 的 AWS 公告确实让所有人都大吃一惊。 $NBIS 随大盘下跌，但鉴于整个 Neocloud 行业因超大规模云服务商合同接连公布以及财报季(ERs)期间前景极为看涨，这 -5% 的回调买入机会极好。
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Wow $IREN and $CIFR just wiped out its gains. For $IREN at least, I guess the market was pricing in a hyperscaler contract already. $CIFR AWS announcement was a really big surprise to everyone though. $NBIS just dropped with the rest of the market but an extremely good -5% dip buy since the whole Neocloud industry is really bullish with hyperscaler contracts announced left and right + during ERs.
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IREN完成重大去风险事件，值得重估，需时间建模。
@moninvestor 就像人们常说的手越大越好（~190亿美元 $NBIS 对比 ~90亿美元 $IREN）。 半开玩笑地说，这对 $IREN 来说是一个实质性的去风险事件，值得重新评级。我需要更多时间来进行估值。 （这是制作层级列表的人，如果其他金融X用户想做一个的话） https://t.co/oefhQy7Trn
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@moninvestor Like what they say with hands, the bigger the better (~$19B $NBIS vs ~9B $IREN). Half-joking aside, this was a material de-risking event for $IREN and deserves re-rating. Will need more time to do valuations (This was the tierlist maker if any other finx wanted to make one) https://t.co/oefhQy7Trn
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Neocloud获微软AWS大额订单，算力需求旺盛，板块极度看涨。
Neocloud 名单已更新： $IREN - IREN 与微软达成 97 亿美元 GPU 云合同，包含 20% 预付款，将在五年内部署 NVIDIA GB300。 $CIFR - CIFR 与亚马逊云科技 (AWS) 达成 55 亿美元、15 年的租赁协议。 随着超大规模云服务商 (Hyperscalers) 的新合同涌入，Neocloud 板块变得极度看涨，这显示了对算力 (Compute) 的无限需求。 我在原始论点中预计 $ORCL、$META 和 $AMZN 会达成交易，看来 AWS 已与 $CIFR 入场，预计与其他 Neocloud 的交易也会接踵而至。$META 最近也与 $CRWV 签署了 140 亿美元的交易，从其不断扩大的 AI 资本支出 (Capex) 来看，我们可能会看到更多与 Neocloud 的交易。 这对整个板块来说都是极度看涨的。 我附上了我的个人梯队排名 (Tierlist) 供娱乐，但随着有更多时间分析交易和利润率，数据中心/矿工板块可能会迎来全面重评。
英文原文
The Neocloud List got updated: $IREN - IREN secured a $9.7B GPU cloud contract with Microsoft, including 20% upfront prepayment, to deploy NVIDIA GB300s over five years. $CIFR - CIFR secured a $5.5 billion, 15-year lease agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS). The Neocloud sector just got insanely bullish with new contracts coming in from hyperscalers and this just shows insatiable demand for compute. I expected $ORCL, $META, and $AMZN to make deals in the original thesis and looks like AWS entered the fray with $CIFR, with likely more deals incoming with other Neoclouds. $META also signed a $14B deal with $CRWV recently and from their ER scaling AI Capex, we'll likely see other deals with Neoclouds. This is insanely bullish across the whole sector. I attached my personal tierlist for fun, but we'll likely see a re-ratings in data centers/miners across the board when there's more time to analyze deals and margins.
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维持NBIS看涨目标，看好新云服务商整体利好及NBIS高非对称性。
我仍维持 $NBIS 1年目标价 $400 的看涨观点，但逢低平均成本是个好主意。 $IREN 今天刚获得 $MSFT 的 90 亿美元订单，$GOOGL 也刚刚宣布融资，这对所有新云服务商(Neoclouds)来说总体是利好。 几家挖矿公司因该交易大幅降低了风险，但我仍认为 Nebius 具有最高的非对称性(Asymmetry)。
英文原文
I still maintain $NBIS $400 bull case 1Y PT but it’s good to cost average. $IREN just got a $9B deal from $MSFT today and $GOOGL just announced financing so it’s generally bullish for all Neoclouds. Several miners got de-risked a lot today from the deal, but I’d still say Nebius has highest asymmetry.
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质疑Meta用户数据，建议资本支出聚焦基础模型竞争。
@doctarzz @zackslab 是的，我同意他们可能稍微夸大了10亿月活跃用户(MAU)的数据。 作为投资者，如果资本支出(capex)能用于在基础模型层面与ChatGPT/Gemini竞争，我会更高兴，因为FAIR/Meta超级智能正在做一些相当酷的事情。 我们很可能会很快看到他们推广独立的AI应用。
英文原文
@doctarzz @zackslab Yeah I'd agree they probably inflated 1B MAU a bit. I'd be happier as an investor if capex went to compete vs ChatGPT/Gemini on the foundational model side since FAIR/Meta Superintelligence is doing some pretty cool stuff. We'll likely see them promote the standalone AI soon
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Meta 资本支出聚焦前沿模型训练，以应对 AI 竞争。
撇开这点不谈，我同意我认识的人都不会使用 Messenger/WhatsApp AI，虽然不清楚他们如何获得 10 亿月活用户(MAU)，但这只是轶事。Facebook 正在消亡的感知(perception)与现实(reality)略有不同。 资本支出(Capex)很可能流向其前沿模型(frontier model)（例如 $14B crwv 合同和其他数据中心），以便训练更好的模型并与 Gemini/ChatGPT 竞争。
英文原文
That aside, I'd agree nobody I know would use messenger/whatsapp AI, no clue how they got 1B MAU but it's just anecdotal. Perception like Facebook dying is slightly different than reality. Capex is likely going toward their frontier model (eg. $14B crwv contract and other datacenters) so they can train a better model and compete vs. Gemini/ChatGPT.
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转发推文，无具体信息。
@doctarzz @zackslab https://t.co/UV78P38WrP
英文原文
@doctarzz @zackslab https://t.co/UV78P38WrP