· 个股论点
将 $TTD 评级上调至买入，目标价 $38.6（年初至今跌幅 -67.5%）。 The Trade Desk 定价合理——目前略微被低估。 毛利率 78.1%，2025 财年营收约 29 亿美元，同比增长 18%，自由现金流(FCF) 利润率 25%。 现金 18 亿美元，无债务，客户留存率 95%，并有 10 亿美元回购以抵消大额基于股票的薪酬。市值 186.7 亿美元。 这肯定不像之前提到的那样是超高速增长股，但它具有良好的价值。基本面是在放缓，而非消亡。 鉴于 7.35 亿美元自由现金流、12% 的同比增长率以及折现率，我将公允价值定在 48-55 美元区间。 我认为随着 12 月中旬年底税务收割(tax harvesting)停止，股价将在约 4 个月内恢复至 50 美元，当前水平下有约 31.6% 的上行空间。
Upgrading $TTD to a buy at $38.6 (-67.5% YTD) The Trade Desk is reasonably priced-slightly undervalued here. 78.1% gross margins, ~2.9B FY revenue 2025, 18% y/y growth, 25% FCF margins. $1.8B cash, no debt,, 95% customer retention, and $1B in buybacks to offset large stock based compensation. At a $18.67B marketcap. Definitely not a hyper growth stock like the earlier mention, but it has good value. Fundamentals are slowing, not dying. I put fair value in $48-$55 range given dcf of $735m fcf, 12% y/y growth, and a discount rate. I see it recovering to $50, ~31.6% upside at these levels within ~4 months, when EOY tax harvesting stops mid December.