· 个股论点
涉及标的： $NBIS
目前 $NBIS 正在投入大量资本支出(capex)为其超大规模客户(hyperscalers)建设人工智能数据中心(ai dcs)，并通过子公司（如 Avride）与 Waymo 竞争。 关于远期盈利，管理层引用的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBIT)率为20-30%（即扣除折旧后、税前转化为营业利润的收入占比）。如果我记忆无误，当前的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)率约为19%。 我们将看到净利润在一年左右的时间里大幅增长，这仅仅是早期阶段（建设/扩张年）。否则，如果它今天就有100亿美元年经常性收入(ARR)且保持这些利润率，我们的市值将达到1000亿美元。 我的论点(thesis)是，这只是一场等待游戏，最高的回报来自于从一开始就搭上这波上涨浪潮。
Currently $NBIS is using a lot of capex to do buildout for its hyperscalers on ai dcs and subsidiaries (eg. Avride) to compete with Waymo. For forward earnings, management quoted 20-30% EBIT which the percentage of revenue that becomes operating profit after depreciation (but before tax). Current ebitda was 19% or so if I recall correctly. We’ll see net income ramp up immensely in a year or so, this is just early stage (building/scaling year). Otherwise if it were doing $10B ARR today with those margins, we’d be trading at a $100b marketcap. My thesis is that it’s just a waiting game and the highest return comes from riding the wave up from the beginning.