全部推文
共 6436 条 · 第 181 / 215 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
NBIS股价脱离基本面，宏观抛售属误杀，当前估值极具吸引力。
我可以99.9%地向你保证，$NBIS 80亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)的预期在几个月前并未被计入股价，分析师/市场当时的预期约为20亿美元（约2-3个月前）。 而现在我们的交易价格低于$MSFT 交易宣布后的水平（约90-100美元）。 考虑到190亿美元的交易和收入爬坡，像Northland这样的看多机构分析师曾预测40亿美元ARR。看多派FinX（包括我自己）随着明年下半年另一笔超大规模云厂商交易的达成，将预期上调至60亿-70亿美元。 随后宣布80亿美元中位ARR至90亿美元，产能达2.5 GW（人们一直说$IREN 在2.8-~3.2 GW方面拥有巨大护城河），以及在同一季度意外宣布与$META 的交易（叠加$MSFT 交易），完全是个惊喜。 然而，财报后整体下跌26%是宏观因素导致的无差别抛售，并非因为上述第1、2、3、4点关于个股预期的原因。 重点是$NBIS 股价目前完全脱离了基本面，这次抛售简直是个笑话。
英文原文
I can 99.9% assure you that $NBIS $8B ARR expectations were not priced in months ago, analysts/markets were expecting around $2B ARR (~2-3 months ago). And now we're trading at lower levels than after the $MSFT deal was announced (~ $90-$100). Factoring in the 19B deal and revenue ramp, bull-case institutional analysts like Northland were projected $4B ARR. Bull case FinX (including myself) went upward to $6B-$7B with another hyperscaler deal later next year. Then announcing $8B midpoint ARR to $9B, capacity to 2.5 GW (which people kept saying $IREN was had a huge moat for 2.8-~3.2 GW), and an unexpected $META deal the same quarter as $MSFT on top was a complete surprise. However, the broader -26% drop after earnings was macro and indiscriminate sell-off, not because of points #1, #2, #3, and #4 for individual stock projections. The point was $NBIS stock price is completely detached from fundamentals right now and the sell-off was a joke.
-
博主调侃有人注意到其关于PLTR CEO的引用。
@paramdan42454 @soulbiri1 很高兴有人注意到了关于 $PLTR 首席执行官(CEO)的引用，哈哈。
英文原文
@paramdan42454 @soulbiri1 glad some people caught the $PLTR ceo reference lol
-
CRWV和ORCL的债务问题不影响NBIS，但财报前抛售剧烈。
@soulbiri1 $CRWV 和 $ORCL 在地理上都与 OpenAI 存在单一依赖关系，因此它们自身的债务问题不应影响 $NBIS。不过，正如你指出的那样，在财报发布前看到相关数据和分析师预测时，抛售行情确实令人咋舌。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Both $CRWV and $ORCL are geographically monogamous with OpenAI so their own debt problems shouldn’t affect $NBIS. But yeah sell-off was wild to watch when you point out the numbers and analyst projections before earnings.
-
NBIS财报数据大幅超预期却暴跌26%，令人费解。
我想知道市场在 $NBIS 上到底抽了什么。 财报发布情况如下： 1. 最乐观的分析师预测年度经常性收入(ARR)为 40 亿美元。 2. 实际表现超出该数字 100%，预计达到 80 亿美元。 3. 签约产能指引超出 150% 以上，达到 2.5 GW。 4. 宣布与 $META 达成意外的 30 亿美元合同。 5. 股价暴跌 26%。
英文原文
I want whatever the market is smoking with $NBIS. Goes into earnings: 1. Most bullish analyst projects $4B ARR 2. Beat that number by 100% with $8B projected 3. Beat contracted capacity guidance by 150%+ to 2.5 GW 4. Announce surprise $3B contract with $META 5. Drops 26%
-
调侃对方观点源于马斯克AI猫娘帖
@DeepValueBagger 你确定你不是在看了 @elonmusk 的 AI 猫娘(AI Catgirl) 帖子后才产生这种理解的吗？
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Are you sure you didn't develop that understanding after watching AI catgirl posts from @elonmusk? https://t.co/NTOqoumOwx
-
管理层若确认Lake站点泳池派对，CIFR将获支持。
@accounting_ds @rftylerpage 如果管理层确认不排除在 Lake 站点举办泳池派对，$CIFR 将获得大量支持（包括我在内）。
英文原文
@accounting_ds @rftylerpage There will be a lot of support behind $CIFR (myself included) if we get a confirmation from the executive team that they're not ruling out a pool party from the Lake site.
-
调侃建议CIFR利用泳池办派对增收。
@accounting_ds 我认为 @rftylerpage 应该利用那个湖举办一场泳池派对。他们可以通过门票赚很多钱，特别是如果他们向那些需要理发的人宣传的话。很多人会参加，这将增加 $CIFR 第四季度的收入。
英文原文
@accounting_ds I think @rftylerpage should utilize the lake by hosting a pool party. They can profit a lot from entrance fees, especially if they promote it to people who need a hair cut. Many people will attend, it will increase Q4 $CIFR revenue.
-
11月24日MSCI指数大幅流入$NBIS，虽金额未定但利好显著。
@soulbiri1 显然，11月24日 MSCI 指数对 $NBIS 的流入量在数千万美元至十亿美元区间。虽然无法确定确切数字，但这对资金流入帮助很大。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Apparently it's few hundred million inflow to low billion range for the MSCI inflow into $NBIS on Nov 24th. Can't really determine the exact number, but it helps with inflow a lot.
-
NBIS容量售罄印证全栈基建高需求，预计随大厂扩产再次售罄。
对于 $NBIS 而言，这验证了全栈基础设施(Infrastructure)的高需求，而非限制。他们拥有 2.5 GW 的合同容量，且当前容量已售罄。产能爬坡反映了其 70-90 亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）的预估。同样，他们可以签订更多合同以增加 ARR，我预计他们会再次售罄，尤其是 Anthropic 正在建设 500 亿美元的数据中心(DC)，而 $GOOGL 上周也在建设 400 亿美元的 DC。
英文原文
For $NBIS it's a validation of high-demand for full-stack infrastructure, not a limitation. They have 2.5 GW contracted capacity and sold out of current capacity. The capacity ramp is a reflection of their $7-$9B ARR estimate. Again they can contract more and increase their ARR and I'd expect them to sell out again, especially with Antrophic building $50B DCs and $GOOGL building $40B DCs just this past week.
-
驳斥用8年前言论否定某人当前比特币倡导立场的观点。
作为背景，当时的观点是存在多个网络的空间，例如以太坊(Ethereum)、XRP，而“最大主义者(Maximalists)”认为只有比特币(Bitcoin)有价值。那时BTC价格低于6000美元，比特币社区确实存在刻板印象。就像我开玩笑说Reddit和WSB今天被视为那样，这在8年后可能会冒犯他人。2018年，“乡巴佬比特币最大主义者”是比特币持有者的刻板印象，即使你仍然支持该网络并持有货币。快进8年，这种刻板印象已不存在，加密领域是一个包含USDC等代币的完整生态系统，跨越多个EVM网络及RWA代币化，你无需成为最大主义者即可成为比特币作为货币或网络的坚定倡导者。话虽如此，回溯近十年，剪辑视频并声称这是她现在的观点是虚伪的。8年前的愚蠢时刻并不意味着她今天不是比特币的倡导者。
英文原文
For context, the perspective back then was there's room for multiple networks, eg. Ethereum, XRP and "Maximalists" thought only Bitcoin has value. And this was when BTC was <$6K and the bitcoin community definitely had sterotypes. Just like how I joke about Reddit + WSB as being regarded today, this might be offensive in 8 years time. Redneck Bitcoin Maximalist was how a sterotype for Bitcoin holders in 2018, even if you still support the network and hold the currency. Fast forward 8 years, this sterotype doesn't exist, and crypto is whole ecosystem with tokens like USDC across many EVM networks and RWA tokenization and you don't need to be a Maximalist to be a strong advocate for Bitcoin as a currency. or network That being said, going back close to a decade, clipping a video, and claiming it's her perspective now is disingenuous. A silly moment 8 years ago doesn't mean that today she's not an advocate for Bitcoin.
-
澄清 Gloria 维护比特币核心的资格，指出旧视频语境差异。
Gloria 是我现实生活中的朋友，她完全有资格继续维护比特币核心(Bitcoin Core)。我猜这是 Cal 或伯克利区块链项目(Blockchain at Berkeley) 在 2019 年左右关于 Cosmos/Tendermint 和其他网络大量工作时的旧视频。那时的比特币社区受众与现在不同。她非常聪明，这只是一个脱离语境的滑稽瞬间。
英文原文
Gloria's a real life friend of mine and she's well deserving of maintaining Bitcoin Core. I'm guessing was an old video from Cal or Blockchain at Berkeley when there was a lot of work on Cosmos/Tendermint and other networks back in 2019ish. Back then Bitcoiners were different audiences than now. She's incredibly intelligent and this is just an out-of-context silly moment.
-
NBIS暴跌后机构逆势增持，基本面强劲，维持$400目标价。
Nebius ($NBIS) 上月暴跌 -33.61%，市值跌至 210 亿美元。 尽管如此，最新的 13F 文件数据显示 $NBIS 的机构持股比例上升： · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) Fintel 的数据则更接近 ~46.3%。 Nebius 是一家市值 210 亿美元的全栈新云(Neocloud)服务商： · 远期年度经常性收入(Forward ARR) 达 70-90 亿美元（同比增长 700%+），EBIT 利润率 30%，为 $MSFT Azure、$META | 从 Cursor 到 Shopify 的企业 | 以及政府提供动力。 · 现金超 47 亿美元，投资组合公司净资产价值(NAV) 超 70 亿美元，这些公司支撑着 Cloudflare、Tiktok、Tesla、Netflix 和 Anthropic。 正如上月所料，机构开始意识到这种一代人一次的增长机遇，因为新云(Neocloud)是 AI 数据中心建设及 Mag7 AI 算力的核心。 Nebius 的机构持股比例一直较低 (<28%)，这源于其非典型的 IPO 方式。对于高价值公司，机构持股通常在 60-80% 之间。 因此，我们看到机械性抛压 + 散户投降 + 保证金清算 -> 通过暗池/大宗交易 -> 机构在低位吸筹。 这种吸筹模式并未改变，我们之前在 Robinhood (S-st) 上也见过同样的故事，其机构持股现已达 74.62%，此前股价从 $20 涨至 $150。 非理性的恐惧和投降是机构从散户手中吸筹的方式。近期的下跌是股价变化，而非基本面恶化。$NBIS 的 1 年目标价仍为 $400。 当远期增长支撑市值预测时，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
英文原文
Nebius ( $NBIS ) crashed -33.61% last month, falling to a $21B market cap. Despite this, new 13F filing data shows $NBIS institutional ownership increase: · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) with Fintel placing it closer to ~46.3%. Nebius is a $21B MC full-stack Neocloud with: · $7-9B forward ARR (700%+ Y/Y), 30% EBIT margins, powering $MSFT Azure, $META | enterprises from Cursor to Shopify | and Governments. · $4.7B+ Cash, $7B+ NAV in portfolio companies that power Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic. As expected from last month, institutions are starting to realize this once-a-generation growth, as Neoclouds are the center of the AI DC buildout and Mag7 AI compute. The institutional ownership of Nebius was always low <28%, due to how their unusual IPO. With high-value companies, ownership typically ranges from 60-80%. So, we're seeing mechanical flows down + retail capitulation + margin liquidation- > dark pools/block trades -> for institutions to accumulate at lower prices. This type of accumulation pattern has not changed and we've seen this same story before with Robinhood ( S-st ), now at 74.62% ownership, before their rally from $20 to $150. Irrational fear and capitulation is how institutions accumulate off shareholders. The recent drop is a change in stock price, not in fundamentals. The 1Y price target on $NBIS remains $400. When forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s a matter of time and execution.
-
分析NBIS因财务结构具隔离性，高波动下部分抛售逻辑存疑。
是的，我在另一条推文中提到过信贷收紧以及来自 OpenAI 的传染效应，但 $NBIS 因其强劲的资产负债表和可转换票据结构，在这些方面似乎是最具隔离性的。这主要是非针对性的板块抛售，叠加主要影响 $CRWV、$ORCL 及相关公司如 $APLD 的结构性因素。但鉴于 Nebius 具有高贝塔值，其股价可能在一周内从 130 美元跌至 90 美元，但也可能在短时间内回到同一价格。如果从 GPU 折旧的看空论点来看，许多其他公司如 $CIFR 也是孤立的，因为它们只做数据中心托管(colocation)，所以很多抛售说不通。
英文原文
Yeah I made another post about credit tightening and contagion from OpenAI in one of my other posts but $NBIS seems the best isolated in those terms because of their strong balance sheet, convertible note structure. It’s mostly indiscriminate sector selloff on top of the something structural mainly affecting $CRWV, $ORCL and related co like $APLD. But given Nebius is high-beta, it can drop from $130 to $90 in 1 trading week but it can also go back to the same price in a short time. If we go from the GPU depreciation short argument many others like $CIFR are also isolated because they just do colo, so a lot of the selloffs don’t make sense.
-
作者看好NBIS反弹，建议买入3-5月看涨期权。
@soulbiri1 鉴于每个人都值得被爱，我也会去接 $NBIS 这把下落的飞刀（Omoroi）。3月至5月的看涨期权更安全，但我预计 Weebius 会恢复！
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I would catch Omoroi’s falling knife too on $NBIS since everyone deserves love. March-may calls are safer but I expect weebius to recover!
-
澄清研究框架，强调信贷与债务风险对板块的影响。
两件事： - 阅读时最好越过第一句继续往下看 - 隔一个交易日再看帖子，百分比数据会发生变化。 我尊重你的专注，但你正在聚焦于一个无人进行的直接对比。这确实是一篇长文，大多数人可能会跳过正文直接看评论，但文中所做的唯一直接对比是： - NeoClouds（新云厂商）与Mag7（科技七巨头）的合同 - NeoClouds与资产负债表健康的公司 - 未与OpenAI直接签约的NeoClouds 所以再次帮你梳理一下，整篇文章的核心是关于信贷市场、债务结构、OpenAI资本支出悬顶，以及影响整个板块的生态系统风险。 使用1周到1个月的时间框架是为了展示NeoClouds从何处下跌（例如$IREN在微软交易后），以反映板块在盘前的整体下跌。使用隔一个交易日NeoClouds从盘前跌幅中恢复后的不同价格，并不会改变或有利于该论点。 阅读时最好越过第一句（我也持有$IREN）
英文原文
So two things: - It helps to read past the first sentence - percentages change when you look at a post a trading day later. I respect your dedication, but you’re zeroing in on a direct comparison nobody is making. It’s a long post for sure and most would just skip it and go to comments but the only direct comparisons made were - neoclouds with mag7 contracts - neoclouds with healthy balance sheets - neoclouds that don’t directly have contracts with OpenAI. So just to help you again, the whole post was about credit markets, debt structure, OpenAI capex overhang, and ecosystem risk affecting the whole sector. Using 1W to 1M timeframe is to show levels neoclouds dropped from (eg. $IREN after MSFT deal) for a sector wide drop from premarket. Using different prices a trading fay later when neoclouds recovered from premarket doesn’t change or favor the thesis. It helps to read past the first sentence (I own $IREN too)
-
@KobeissiLetter 又有400亿美元资本支出流向像 $WULF / $CIFR 这样的新云服务商(neoclouds)以及 $GOOGL 的数据中心建设。与此同时，市场正因错误的原因而无差别抛售。 https://t.co/S9wmV8d1XD
英文原文
@KobeissiLetter Another $40B in capex going to neoclouds like $WULF / $CIFR and the data center buildout by $GOOGL. Meanwhile markets are selling off indiscriminately for the wrong reasons. https://t.co/S9wmV8d1XD
-
因NBIS股价下跌，计划买入3股。
@dottomato @babyfolio $NBIS 又跌了几个百分点，也许是时候买入 3 股了。
英文原文
@dottomato @babyfolio $NBIS がさらに数パーセント下落したので、そろそろ 3 株買う頃かもしれない
-
指出AI处理海量13F文件存在局限，曾尝试但结果出错。
@number1invest_ @grok 让 Grok 处理通过审查每一份 13F 文件(13F Filing)来进行的大量数据计算(13F filing)可能太多了。我记得在另一个帖子中要求它只输出一个结果，但它搞错了。 https://t.co/rP8XZNQMpX
英文原文
@number1invest_ @grok there's probably too much number crunching by reviewing every single 13F filing for Grok to handle. I remember asking it one single output in another thread but they go it wrong. https://t.co/rP8XZNQMpX
-
TSSI暴跌后若仍依附DELL供应链，或是买入良机。
哇，太恶心了——$TSSI 暴跌 -42.69%，抱歉如果你持有该股。这很可能是数据中心板块抛售的一部分，且看来他们因运营失误导致业绩不及预期。 我有一段时间没关注它了，但如果他们仍在搭 $DELL 的便车，那么这可能是一个不错的买入机会。未来营收不少，包括 2026 年 Q1-Q2 来自 $SMCI 的订单。SMCI 也提到了积压订单的延迟。此外，随着数据中心建设，$DELL 也有大量积压订单。 市场也重挫了 $CRWV，原因是建设短期延迟。
英文原文
Wow, disgusting -42.69% drop on $TSSI, sorry if you have that. It's likely part of the datacenter selloff and looks like they missed on earnings due to operational blunders. I haven't looked at it for a awhile, but if they're still piggybacking on $DELL, then it's likely a good buy. Lot of forward revenue, including with $SMCI coming in 2026 Q1-Q2. SMCI quoted backlog delays too. And lot of $DELL backlog with the DC buildout. Markets tanked $CRWV too for short term delay on buildout.
-
驳斥AI板块恐慌，指出托管商受Mag7支持，是错杀买入机会。
这是$CRWV、$ORCL的OpenAI效应。市场在恐惧时是非理性的，将整个板块视为单一实体，而忽视了细微差别： GPU折旧——Burry的做空论点（硬件快速过时）： $CIFR、$WULF等完全不受影响，因为它们不购买GPU，而是做数据中心托管(Colo)。 信用风险——收紧使得所有资本密集型的AI建设成本更高且更脆弱。 $NBIS等...是孤立的（资产负债表强劲，可转换债务）。 未来收入泡沫，OpenAI没有足够的... $IREN、$NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF完全不受影响，因为它们由Mag7支持，而非OpenAI。 对某些人来说，这是令人发笑的买入机会。
英文原文
It's the $CRWV, $ORCL OpenAI Effect. Markets are irrational during fear and views the sector as a single entity vs. seeing the nuances: GPU Deprecation - Burry Short Thesis (rapid hardware obsolescence): $CIFR, $WULF, etc. Literally not affected since they don't buy GPUs and do colo. Credit Risk - tightening makes all capital-intensive AI buildouts more expensive and fragile. $NBIS and others... isolated (Strong balance sheet, convertible debt). Future Revenue Bubble with OpenAI not having enough $IREN, $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF literally not affected since they're backed by Mag7, not OpenAI. Hilarious buying opportunity for some.
-
IREN转全栈致风险激增，NBIS/CIFR基本面稳健却被板块性做空。
谢谢，是的，我之前做分级列表时将 $IREN 列为 S 级，但他们因试图通过购买数十亿 GPU 与 $CRWV 在全栈领域竞争而被大幅降级。许多 $IREN 持有者争论称托管(Colo)最盈利，但在 $IREN 的财报电话会上，他们明确表示因“更高的收入潜力和更强的回报”而购买 GPU 并从事全栈业务。构建软件层比人们想象的要难得多，$IREN 的执行风险急剧上升。与此同时，$NBIS 和 $CRWV 已经掌握了这一环节（根据其白皮书，$NBIS 胜过 $CRWV），但 Coreweave 在利息债务和 OpenAI 风波中搞砸了。不幸的是，我们看到整个板块被做空，尽管存在许多细微差别，例如 $CIFR 不受 GPU 贬值论点的影响。或者 $NBIS 拥有超过 5 年的 Mag7 及企业客户、强劲的资产负债表，且不受 $ORCL 及信贷收紧引发的 AI 泡沫 OpenAI 风波影响。
英文原文
Thanks, yeah I had $IREN as S tier when I did my tierlist earlier but they got downgraded a lot because they ended up trying to compete vs $CRWV in the full-stack by buying billions in GPUs. A lot of IREN holders were arguing colo was most profitable, but in $IREN's earnings call, they literally said they were buying GPUs and doing the full-stack due to "higher revenue potential and stronger returns". It's much, much harder building out the software layer than people think and the execution risk for IREN skyrocketed immensely. Meanwhile $NBIS and $CRWV already has that nailed down ( $NBIS wins vs. $CRWV per their whitepaper) but Coreweave messed up with interest debt + OpenAI drama. Unfortunately we're seeing a whole sector short despite many of the nuances eg. $CIFR not being affected by GPU depreciation arguments. Or $NBIS having Mag7 + enterprise customers over 5Y periods + strong balance sheet and not affected by AI bubble OpenAI fiasco with $ORCL + credit tightening.
-
新云生态分化，NBIS领先，IREN执行存疑，市场尚未完全定价。
新云(Neocloud)并非赢家通吃，而是一个完整的生态系统，但并非所有公司都能成为AWS。 我们看到$NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV和$ORCL在真正的“新云”领域竞争，这是一场最有利可图的全栈竞赛，旨在成为Azure/AWS。它们进行垂直整合、建设容量、购买GPU并进行编排，一些孵化企业也加入了竞争。 目前$NBIS是明确的赢家，拥有超大规模云厂商+企业客户+良好的资产负债表，只是时间问题；$CRWV深陷利息债务；$ORCL建设失败，且OpenAI是其最大且风险最高的积压订单。$IREN前景看好，但执行层面存在最大问号，因为其路径不同于人们预期的$CIFR模式，其容量和软件编排比人们预期的难得多（看看$ORCL和$CRWV在软件收购上花费的数十亿美元）。 然后是$CIFR、$WULF、矿工等，它们利用现有容量进行更安全的托管机房(Colo)业务，而像Amazon这样的超大规模云厂商则插入自己的GPU。我仍将其归为新云，但也许该单独分类了，不过它们不受Burry关于2年GPU淘汰论虚假言论的影响。 其余公司正在向高性能计算(HPC)转型，承诺未来X量的容量，但在信贷收紧背景下，为此转型融资越来越难。 随着近期一系列财报的发布，我们开始看到新兴赢家，这是好事。市场尚未定价，但只是时间问题。
英文原文
Neocloud isn't winner takes all, it's a whole ecosystem but not everything can become AWS. We're seeing $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV, and $ORCL compete in the true "Neocloud", most profitable full stack race to become Azure/AWS. Doing vertical integration, building capacity, buying GPUs, and doing orchestration, and some incubants entering the race. So far $NBIS is the clear winner with hyperscalers + enterprises + good balance sheet in a matter of time, $CRWV is swamped with interest debt, $ORCL failed buildout so far and OpenAI as their biggest + risky backlog. $IREN is promising but they have the biggest question mark for execution since it's not the original approach like $CIFR people were expecting with their capacity and software orchestration is much harder than people expect (looking at $ORCL then $CRWV spending billions on software aqusitions). Then there's $CIFR, $WULF, miners, etc and others do safer colo with their existing capacity while hyperscalers like Amazon plugs in their own GPUs. I still put them as a Neocloud but I guess it's time to make a separate category, but these aren't as affected by Burry's false comments about 2Y GPU deprecation lol. And then we have the rest... undergoing the pivot to HPC, with X amount of future capacity promised and this is becoming increasingly difficult to raise money for this change from credit tightening. It's a good thing that we're starting to see emerging winners after the series of recent earnings. Market hasn't priced this in yet but it's a matter of time.
-
XRP作为机构结算机制的优势与地址、余额等技术痛点分析。
自费用被销毁以防止通过供应销毁进行DDoS攻击以来，没有人... 这是一个过度简化的说法，但更类似于机构社区志愿者工作，以维护网络，而不是像ETH PoS那样有费用激励。只是不同的网络共识和方式。 我看到XRP被采用为机构间的结算机制（类似于Customers Bank Instant Token），并且由于即时最终性/低费用，我个人为跨境结算部分构建了一些应用程序（与美国银行代币相比），但在地址和最低余额方面有很多烦人的问题，就像Polkadot在入职/死资本方面一样，并且不像EVM那样广泛采用的脚本，你可以在Polygon到L2上部署相同的合约。
英文原文
Nobody since fees are burned to prevent ddos via supply burn. Oversimplification but it’s more like institutional community volunteer work in terms of maintaining the network rather than having fee incentive like eth pos. Just different network consensus and approach. I see xrp being adopted as a settlement mechanism in between institutions (kind of like Customers Bank Instant Token) and personally built some applications for cross country settlement part (vs. US bank tokens) just due to instant finality/low fees, but there’s a lot of annoying issues regarding addresses and minimum balances like Polkadot with onboarding/dead capital, and not widely adopted scripting like EVM where you can deploy the same contracts across polygon to l2.
-
信贷收紧利好资产负债表健康的T1新云厂商，当前抛售是买入良机。
你的分析精准捕捉到了二阶Alpha。信贷收紧削弱了弱势竞争对手融资新建产能+改善远期自由现金流/利润率的能力，从根本上制约了其增长。 这意味着资产负债表健康且无高额债务利息的T1新云厂商（如$NBIS和$CIFR）将享有更持久的利润率。这是一个巨大的长期溢价，市场目前定价错误+在此次抛售中尚未计入。 正如我们所见，Mag7的资本支出正在增加，但正流向$NBIS、$WULF等赢家。由于$CRWV和$ORCL引发的恐慌+信贷收紧，我们正目睹一场不分青红皂白的抛售，这反而是买入机会，实际上也是受冲击最小的新云厂商的竞争优势。
英文原文
Your analysis nails the second-order alpha. Credit tightening hurts the ability of weaker competitors to fund new capacity + improve forward FCF/margins, fundamentally constraining growth. This translates to more durable margins to the T 1 Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CIFR with healthy balance sheets and no high debt interest. This is a massive long term premium the market is currently mispricing + hasn't priced in yet with this sell-off. Mag7 capex as we've seen is increasing, but it's funneling into winners eg. $NBIS, $WULF, etc. We're seeing an indiscriminate sell-off due to panic from $CRWV and $ORCL + credit tightening, and this is a buying opportunity and actually a competitive advantage for the least affected Neoclouds.
-
AI股因信贷收紧恐慌抛售，建议转向有Mag7合同且低债的新云龙头。
我们正目睹 AI + 数据中心(DC) 股票实时崩盘，$IREN 本周下跌 37.88%，$NBIS 本月下跌 35.27%。 恐慌源于信贷收紧、高息债务、OpenAI 传染效应、宏观因素，以及最重要的：非理性恐惧。 以下是实时发生的情况： 1. 信贷收紧 - 像 $APLD 这样的公司未能成功发行债券（认购不足），最终发行了 23.5 亿美元的高收益债务融资——彭博社 11 月 14 日报道。债券以 97 美分的价格折价出售，收益率约为 10%。 该债券交易的风险主要与 Applied Digital 对 $CRWV 的依赖有关，后者占其合同收入的大部分。随着建设阶段机构关注度增加（例如 Burry 关于 GPU 折旧的做空报告），数据中心更难筹集资金。 融资条件收紧影响了整个通过发行债务为自身建设融资的生态系统。 2. 高息债务 - 由于信贷收紧，$CRWV 为扩张而承担的劣质债务导致每年超过 10 亿美元的损失。这侵蚀了利润率和自由现金流(FCF)。 同样，$APLD 和其他以不良收益率筹集资金的公司也面临同样的未来问题，我们看到相关公司因风险管理而出售。 3. OpenAI 承诺的 1 万亿美元+ 资金没有余额支撑 - OpenAI 承诺超过 1 万亿美元的资本支出(capex)，其中 224 亿美元+ 流向 $CRWV，3000 亿美元+ 流向 $ORCL，他们正在为此建设产能。由于 OpenAI 手头没有余额并采取避险策略，市场现在对这些承诺持怀疑态度。 现在，我们看到这种建设从 Coreweave 等公司向下传染到 $CORZ 和 $APLD，这些公司在建设期间可能依赖 $CRWV 的未来收入。 4. $CRWV 是 AI 基础设施（以及部分 $ORCL）的行业领导者。当行业领导者抛售时，通常其他公司会跟随。 5. 12 月降息概率下降： 除了高息债务外，我们看到 12 月降息概率降至约 53% 的抛硬币水平。较高的利率使得像 $CRWV 这样背负利息债务的公司再融资以增强 FCF 变得困难。 _ 细微差别与重新定位： 我们看到全面抛售。然而，Mag7（$META, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT）的资本支出和合同已确认，且盈利能力极强。 有一种简单的方法可以安全重新定位，以避免未来收入增长 + 债务周期的问题。 1. 配置与 Mag7 有合同可见性的新云(Neoclouds)： - $NBIS - 190 亿美元 $MSFT 交易，30 亿美元来自 $META，广泛的企业支持 - $CIFR - 55 亿美元与 $AMZN 的 Colo 交易，30 亿美元与 $GOOGL 的交易 - $WULF - 37 亿美元+ 与 $GOOGL 的交易等。 - $IREN - 90 亿美元与 $MSFT 的交易 我们可能会看到更多像 $SLNH, $CLSK 等投机性容量公司下跌，并整合到具有可见企业合同（未来收入下行风险低）的新云中。 2. 配置无/极低息债务且资产负债表强劲的新云： 像 $NBIS 这样的公司因拥有 47.9 亿美元的可转换票据现金及现金等价物，而与当前信贷市场波动隔离。或者像 $CIFR 这样拥有 12 亿美元现金的公司。 3. 避免与 OpenAI 有直接合同而非 Mag7 的公司。 _ 新云是 Mag7 AI 算力的骨干。这一论点没有改变，我们可能会看到一些规模达到 1000 亿美元+ 的公司成为下一个 AWS。 然而，我们看到由 $CRWV, $ORCL 和 OpenAI + 信贷收紧（部分由于 Burry 关于 GPU 折旧的错误机构做空报告）引起的广泛、不分青红皂白的抛售。 对于像 $NBIS 这样拥有 70-90 亿美元远期年度经常性收入(ARR) 和极强资产负债表的公司，这种抛售完全不合理。但对于其他投机性公司，这是一次必要的修正。 一句好话是“散户最后卖出，最后买回”。 如果你认为你可以卖出并在两周后回来，错过抛售后的一个或两个巨大反弹日可能会让你失去大部分恢复收益。 机构可能正在通过暗池/大宗交易购买更好的名字，例如 $NBIS，在这些清洗和保证金清算之后。我们还看到机构所有权从 38%-> 43-46%，尽管股价下跌。 利用这次机会购买好名字，并持有度过这些波动时期。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 13F 新云申报的机构流向评估： · Nebius ( $NBIS ): 🟢 强烈正面 (7/10) · WULF ( $WULF ): 🟢 高度正面 (8.5/10) · IREN ( $IREN ): 🔴 非常负面 (3/10) · CIFR ( $CIFR ): 🟢 高度正面 (8.0/10) · Coreweave ( $CRWV ): 🟡 中性 (5.5/10) · Cleanspark ( $CLSK ): 🟢 高度正面 (9.0/10) _ TLDR 摘要更新： $NBIS · 机构所有权整体定量增长强劲，由坚实的长期机构买家以及量化基金和对冲基金的高活跃度驱动。 $WULF · 机构基础结构稳定且安全，以 Vanguard 和 BlackRock 等大型纯多头资产管理人为特征，他们对股票持有高信念。 $IREN · 所有权由高频交易员、做市商和量化基金（例如 Jane Street, Citadel）主导。这种结构被视为负面，因为它表明缺乏稳定的短期持有压力和长期机构缺乏信念。 $CIFR · 优秀的机构设置，以纳入主要指数（被动需求）和主动基金的强烈信念购买为标志，Alyeska 的大幅增持尤为突出。 $CRWV · 高交易量表明市场兴趣浓厚，但所有权目前高度集中，做市商存在显著，导致中性评分，暗示流向的风险/回报平衡。 $CLSK · 被认为是该组中最好的机构结构，结合了广泛支持的被动指数纳入和激进的、高信念的主动积累，表明定性风险最低。 _ 评论： 例如，“看多 - Jane Street + Citadel 拥有 x 的 $IREN ”（提示：这不是正面的）。尤其是当长期持有者如 FMR (Fidelity)：212 万股，大幅削减持仓时。 基金类型很重要，例如： 被动（最正面） Vanguard, BlackRock 指数, State Street, Geode 等 多头（正面） Fidelity, T. Rowe, Wellington, BIT 等 对冲基金（中性到正面） Alyeska, Coatue, Millennium 等 量化/做市商（负面） Jane Street, Citadel, Susquehanna, SIG, Two Sigma 等 这是一个主观框架，用于仅从本季度评分流向有多正面（而非整体所有权）。
英文原文
We're seeing a live crash in AI + DC stocks right now with $IREN down 37.88% this week to $NBIS down 35.27% this month. Panic stems from Credit Tightening, High Interest Debt, OpenAI contagion, Macro, and most importantly: Irrational Fear. Here's what happening real time: 1. Credit Tightening - Companies like $APLD failed to sell bonds (under subscribed) and ended up issuing $2.35B in high yield debt offerings - Bloomberg Nov 14th. The bonds were sold at 97 cents on the dollar, a significant discount, with a yield of approximately 10%. The bond deal's risk is primarily tied to Applied Digital's reliance on $CRWV, which accounts for a substantial portion of its contracted earnings. More institutional cation (eg. Burry short report on GPU depreciation) around the buildout makes it harder for DC's to raise funds. Tightening funding conditions affect the entire ecosystem that issue debt to fund their own buildout. 2. High Interest Debt - Due to credit tightening, bad debt, which $CRWV has to fund expansion, causes $1B+ in losses a year. This cuts into margins and FCF. Likewise, $APLD and others that raise funds with bad yields face the same future issues and we're seeing a selloff in related companies for risk-management. 3. $1T+ in OpenAI promised funding without balances - Over $1 trillion+ in capex was promised by OpenAI going to $22.4B+ $CRWV and $300B+ to $ORCL, which they are building capacity for. The market is now skeptical of these promises from OpenAI due to not having the balances on hand and taking a risk-off approach. And now we're seeing contagion on that buildout from companies like Coreweave spread down to $CORZ and $APLD during this buildout that might rely on $CRWV for future revenue. 4. $CRWV is a sector leaders of AI infrastructure (and partially $ORCL). When the sector leader sell-off, usually others follow suit. 5. Rate Cut odds in December Fall: On top of the high interest debt, we're seeing rate cut odds in December drop to a coinflip ~53%. Having higher interest rates make it trouble for interest-debt burdened companies like $CRWV to refinance for stronger FCF. _ THE NUANCE and Repositioning: We're seeing a broad sell-off across the board. However, Capex and contracts from Mag7 ( $META, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT ) are confirmed with their extreme profitability. There's an easy way to safely reposition to avoid issues with future revenue growth + debt cycles. 1. Position into Neoclouds with contract visibility with Mag7: - $NBIS - $19B $MSFT deal, $3B from $META, broad enterprise support - $CIFR - $5.5B Colo deal with $AMZN, $3B deal with $GOOGL - $WULF - $3.7B+ deals with $GOOGL and more. - $IREN - $9B deal with $MSFT We will likely see more capacity speculative companies like $SLNH, $CLSK, and others fall off and consolidation into Neoclouds with visible enterprise contract (low downside risk of future revenue). 2. Position into Neoclouds with no/extremely low interest debt and high balance sheets: Companies like $NBIS are isolated from current credit market volatility as they have $4.79 billion in cash and cash equivalents from convertible notes. Or companies like $CIFR with $1.2B in cash. 3. Avoid companies with direct contracts with OpenAI that's not Mag7. _ Neoclouds are the backbone of Mag7 AI compute. This thesis has not changed and we'll likely see some scale to $100B+ companies in the future as the next AWS. However, we're seeing a widespread, indiscriminate sell-off caused by $CRWV, $ORCL, and OpenAI + credit tightening (partially due to incorrect institutional short reports from Burry on GPU depreciation). These types of sell-offs are completely not warranted for companies like $NBIS with $7-9B forward ARR and extremely strong balance sheets. But for other speculative companies, it's a well-needed correction. A good quote is “retail is last to sell, last to buy back”. If you think you can sell and come back two weeks later, missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost you most of the recovery gains. Institutions are probably buying the better names right now eg. $NBIS through dark pools/block trades now after these types of washouts and margin liquidations. We've also seen institutional ownership go from 38%-> 43-46% despite share prices dropping. Use this as a buying opportunity for good names, and hold through these periods of volatility.
-
博主回应质疑，强调自己为主动交易者，持仓会变动。
@midlevelcruiser @FransBakker9812 @DivesTech 持仓可能会变动，我是一名主动交易者(active trader)。
英文原文
@midlevelcruiser @FransBakker9812 @DivesTech Positions can change, I'm an active trader
-
博主回应提及持有IREN股票
@midlevelcruiser @FransBakker9812 @DivesTech 我有 $IREN 你知道的
英文原文
@midlevelcruiser @FransBakker9812 @DivesTech i have $IREN you know
-
关注APLD高息发债风险，认为NBIS等公司资产负债表健康。
@TalentActivity 实际上，我可能还需要重新审视一下与 $CRWV 相关的承包商，特别是 $APLD，如果他们正在以 10% 的收益率出售债券（刚刚来自彭博社的消息）。 $NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF 的资产负债表仍然健康。
英文原文
@TalentActivity Actually I probably need to revisit this one more time in terms of the contractors with $CRWV, namely $APLD if they're selling bonds at 10% yield (just now from Bloomberg). $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF balance sheets are still healthy.
-
基于已确认交易对Neoclouds个股排名，建议规避高债低利标的。
在获得更多财报和交易背景后，我可能会这样对“新云”（Neoclouds）进行排名。 仅基于容量建设（Capacity Buildout）的已确认交易： 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | 多家 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + 超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler） 5. $CORZ - $CRWV 我不会碰 $CRWV，因为其利息债务问题；也不碰 $ORCL，因为受 OpenAI 的传染效应以及目前建设利润率较低的影响。 我认为仅基于市场状况，目前选择已确认的高利润率+合同公司，比押注投机性的容量/高性能计算（HPC）建设转型论点更安全。
英文原文
I'd probably rank Neoclouds like this after we got more context from earnings + deals. Just based on confirmed deals from capacity buildout: 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | Many 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + Hyperscaler 5. $CORZ - $CRWV I wouldn't touch $CRWV due to interest debt or $ORCL due to contagion from OpenAI and low margins on buildout so far. I think just based on market conditions, it's safer to go with confirmed higher margin + contracts companies over speculative capacity/HPC buildout pivot arguments right now.
-
新云板块因恐慌抛售与基本面脱节，建议持有以捕捉反弹。
是的，像 $CIFR 这样的新云(Neoclouds)股票在盘前走势简直惨不忍睹，而且这还是在其与 $GOOGL 的交易价格之前，盘前已下跌超过 10%。 这也假装 $AMZN 的托管中心(colocation)交易从未发生过。正如你提到的 $NBIS 的情况，正逼近其与 $MSFT 的交易前水平。由于市场崩盘+恐慌性抛售，我们看到整个板块与基本面完全脱节。 目前，我们可能正在目睹新云(Neoclouds)因保证金级联清算(margin cascading liquidations)+短期期权到期导致的机械性下行资金流。我虽然没有使用任何保证金，但鉴于 $IBKR 等经纪商的保证金使用率创历史新高，可能整个板块都存在保证金清算。 但在抛售后的反弹中错过一两个巨大的反弹日，可能会让你失去最大的恢复收益，这就是为什么在波动时期持有更好。我仍然持有 $NBIS 和其他股票，因为我对它们的基本面有信心。
英文原文
Yeah premarket on Neoclouds like $CIFR is just disgusting to look at and it's pre $GOOGL deal price with the 10%+ drop premarket. And that's pretending $AMZN colo deal never happened too. Similar thing as you mentioned with $NBIS, approaching pre $MSFT deal. We're seeing a complete detachment from fundamentals across the board due the market crash + panic selling. Right now, we're likely seeing margin cascading liquidations + mechanical flows downward with short term option expiration on Neoclouds. I'm not using any margin but there's probably margin liquidations across the board given record high usage on brokerages like $IBKR. But missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost the biggest recovery gains, which is why it’s better to hold through periods of volatility. I'm still holding $NBIS and others since im confident in their fundamentals.