中文翻译
是的，就像我和 Sydney Sweeney 的机会是 50/50 一样，法案通过、然后 $NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR 起飞的概率也是 50/50。 要么发生，要么不发生。 玩笑归玩笑，我随便猜的话，考虑到 Bernie 等民主党人早期反对，概率大概是 30-35%。 我会更押注可能的行政命令强行推进，因为 $ORCL 创始人和前沿 LLM 公司与本届政府关系很近。 另外，AI 基础设施现在已经是国家安全风险。
· 方法论
估算 AI 基建法案通过概率，并更看重行政命令
英文原文
Yes like how my chances with Sydney Sweeney are 50/50, the chances that the bill passes and $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR goes to the moon are 50/50 as well. Either it happens or it doesn’t. Jokes aside just a wild guess is 30-35% given early disagreement from Democrats like Bernie. I’d count more on likely executive orders ramming things through given how close the $ORCL founder and frontier LLMs are with the administration. Also given how AI infrastructure is now a national security risk.