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NBIS子公司价值或超IREN市值，仍看好两者。
确实如此。单是 $NBIS 持有的 Clickhouse 和 Avride 股份，在一两年内可能就超过 $IREN 的市值。话虽如此，我依然对两者都持看涨态度。不过有点不公平的是，Nebius 拥有两家源自 Yandex 时代的子公司，其业务正以三位数的同比增速增长。这甚至还没有计入他们的主营业务线。
英文原文
True. Both $NBIS Clickhouse and Avride stakes alone can be worth more than $IREN marketcap in a year or two. That being said I’m still bullish on both. It’s just a bit unfair though Nebius owns 4 subsidiaries from Yandex days growing triple digits y/y. That’s not even accounting for their main business line
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反驳低利率看空 $CRCL 论点，认为其作为数字美元结算网络价值远超传统估值。
低利率确实会影响 $CRCL，这也是主要的看空论点。然而，低利率环境将释放更多 USDC 的供应，并带来相比高息国债收益更多的交易量/交易性收入。Circle 需要将其交易量的变现能力从利息收入（占其利润的 90% 以上）中剥离出来。我上面的论点是，人们不应将其像金融科技(fintech)公司那样估值。如果它成为数字美联储，且 USDC 成为美元在线结算的实际货币，那么该网络及其发行商的价值将远超传统估值。
英文原文
Low interest rates does affect $CRCL and this is the main bear case thesis. However, low interest rates environments would unlock more supply in USDC + more volume/transactional based revenue compared to high interest from treasuries. Circle would need to monetize transactional volume over interest (which makes up 90%+ of their profits) My argument above is that people shouldn’t value it like a fintech though. If it becomes the digital federal reserve and USDC is the de facto settlement currency of the dollar online, both the network and the issuer is worth way beyond traditional valuations
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计划研究Maia，已持AAOI作为LITE的杠杆替代。
@itsthesquonky 我今天会对此做一些研究，谢谢提醒。 我已经持有一些微型股，比如 $AAOI，在我看来它只是 $LITE 的杠杆版，仅仅是为了押注 $MSFT Maia 的放量。
英文原文
@itsthesquonky I’ll do some research today on it, thanks for the shout. I’m already into quite a bit of micro caps like $AAOI which is leveraged $LITE imo just for the $MSFT Maia ramp. There’s the conference Jan 6-8 I think which should be a catalyst if Microsoft reveals more news about it
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质疑 $COIN 估值，认为其交易所业务面临竞争且 USDC 分成优势难保。
关于 $COIN，我略有异议。随着 2026 年与 $CRCL 的合同重新谈判临近，其灵活性远比你想象的低。目前 Coinbase 受益于 50% 的 USDC 收入分成及交易所业务，还有来自托管（如 Blackrock ETFs）的价值。但长期来看，其交易所板块可能会被 $HOOD 和 Bitfinex 等零费率交易所蚕食。至于那 50% 的“金蛋”收入分成：Circle 存在法律漏洞可脱离 Coinbase。我确信 Circle 长期会找到办法。例如，《天才法案》明确禁止稳定币发行方向持有者支付利息 -> 借此合法停止支付分成。或者 50/50 的分成在 2027 年合同谈判中降至 75/25。但你只需 180 亿美元就能获得直接发行商的纯粹非对称收益，而交易所附加部分却需 660 亿美元。
英文原文
For $COIN, slighty disagree. It's a lot less versatile than you think as 2026 contract renegotiation with $CRCL is coming up. Right now Coinbase benefits from 50% USDC rev split + exchange business. Then there's value derived from Custody (eg. Blackrock ETFs). But that exchange segment would likely get cannibalized by $HOOD and zero fee exchanges like Bitfinex in the long run. As for that 50% revenue split of the golden egg: there's legal loopholes for Circle to depeg from Coinbase. And I'm pretty sure Circle will find a way in the long run. Eg. Genius Act, explicitly bans stablecoin issuers from paying interest to holders -> using that to legally stop paying them a split. Or the 50/50 split to drop to something like 75/25 from contract negotiation by 2027. But you can get pure play asymmetry with the direct issuer for $18B or the exchange-add on for $66B.
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解析Circle商业模式：类银行利差+无限扩展，支撑高估值。
别担心！我乐于免费分享观点，主要是为了帮助他人获得满足感。 我通过市场交易获利，所以个人觉得没必要将粉丝变现。 关于那个问题： $CRCL 的商业模式本质上是金融界的“圣杯”：100% 毛利率，零资本成本，以及无限可扩展性。 它简直是一台不停歇的印钞机，这也是其估值/溢价高的原因。 银行：2-4% 利息的“储蓄账户”。他们以 6% 贷出。利差约 2-4%。 Circle：你持有 USDC 时支付 0% 利息。他们通过国债以约 5% 借给美国政府。他们的利差是完整的约 5%。 我故意简化以解释概念（未计入与 $COIN 的收入分成等细节）： 如果 Circle 流通量（USDC）为 600 亿美元：600 亿 × 5% 收益率 = 每年 30 亿美元无风险收入。 看 Tether，2024 年报告利润约 130 亿美元。他们也仅用不到 100 名员工就实现了这一点。他们拿“免费资金”（用户存款），购买国债（安全 5%）+ BTC。 Circle + Tether 的商业模式可以说是世界上最好的： 从用户那里“印”免费钱，以 X% 借给政府，赚取利差。如果美联储降息至 0%，印钞机不会停，只是像银行一样切换到服务/交易相关收入（但显然会受一点影响）。 如果 USDC 扩展到 1 万亿+ 市值或作为数字化美元事实标准的 2 万亿+，若赚取 5%，利润将达（500-1000 亿美元/年）。 而目前 Circle 市值 180-200 亿美元，流通供应量 770 亿美元。 它也是纯软件，因此可以像 Tether 一样以极少员工扩张，不像银行有极高的 overhead（运营开销）。 所以基本上无限可扩展的商业模式（印钞机）结合极高利润率 = 高估值。
英文原文
No worries! I love sharing my thoughts for free mainly for fulfillment in helping others. I make money through markets so I personally don't see any reason why I would need to monetize followers. As for the question: $CRCL's business model is essentially the "Holy Grail" of finance: 100% gross margins, zero cost of capital, and infinite scalability It's literally a non-stop money printer, which is why it yields high valuation/premiums. Banks: 2-4% interest "savings account". They lend it out at 6%. Margin ~2-4%. Circle: Pays you 0%. (when you hold USDC). They lend it to the US Government (via Treasuries) at ~5%. Their margin is the full ~5%. I've dumbing it down on purpose to explain the concept (not factoring in stuff like revenue split with $COIN) but: If Circle has $60 Billion in circulation (USDC): $60B × 5% yield = $3 Billion/year risk-free revenue. If we look at Tether, in 2024, Tether reported ~$13 Billion in profit. They achieved this with fewer than 100 employees too. They took the "free money" (users' deposits), bought Treasuries (safe 5%) + BTC as well. Circle + Tether business models are arguably the best in the world: Print free money (from users), lend at X% to gov, pocket the spread. If Fed cuts to 0%, the money printer doesn't stop, it just shifts gears like banks to service/TX related revenues (but obviously hurts a bit) If USDC expands to $1T+ marketcap or $2T+ as the the de facto standard for a digitalized dollar, profits will be ($50-$100B /year) if they make 5% off that. And right now Circle is a $18-20B marketcap with $77B circulating supply. It's pure software too, so it can expand off low employee counts like Tether, unlike banks that have extremely high overhead. So basically infinitely scalable business model (money printer) combined with extremely high margins = high valuation.
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博主在 $CRCL 大跌后建仓，计划长期持有以捕捉上行空间。
谢谢，我等了很久才建立 $CRCL 的长期头寸。我们经历了加密板块清算、流通盘解禁、降息以及高贝塔股票抛售，最终导致股价从高点下跌 70%。现在 Circle 终于回到了一个合理的价位，因此我在股价跌至 $70 时建立了头寸。我最初在 IPO 期间就下了买单，但随后股价涨至 $250+。自那以来有很多积极进展，所以从投资者角度来看，我非常乐意持有并进行多年长期投资。云服务提供商(CSP)策略也不错，但我更贪婪地想要捕捉上行空间。
英文原文
Thanks, I was waiting forever to build long positions on $CRCL. We had crypto sector liquidations, float unlock, interest rate cuts, and high beta stock selloff, finally causing a 70% drop from the highs. Now Circle is finally at a respectable price again, so I built up positions on the drop to $70. I did originally place buy orders during the IPO but then it just went to $250+. There’s been a lot more positive developments since so from an investor’s perspective, very happy hold + multi year long for me. CSPs is also a good strategy, but I’m a little more greedy trying to capture the upside.
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USDT与USDC对比：Tether庞大但合规困难，USDC已成受监管机构标准
这是个很好的问题，所以这是我的细致看法，关于USDT对比$CRCL USDC。我能给出的最好例子是Onlyfans和信用卡网络。信用卡网络实际上并不被允许与OF合作，但由于其处理的交易量巨大仍然照做。同样，Tether与美国政府也是爱恨交织的关系。至于Tether，他们持有约170亿美元的美国国债，是全球第17大美国国债持有人。如果美国政府试图禁止USDT，可能会导致国债市场的混乱抛售。然而，它仍然具有战略重要性，有助于推动"美元化"进程，特别是在阿根廷或土耳其这样的国家，并确实帮助美元成为主导货币。它在国际上仍然占据主导地位，特别是在"灰色市场"合规+加密交易领域。然而，$USDC基本上已成为美国财政部在私人领域的受监管延伸，主要在美国市场。USDC已经渗透了美国金融机构（visa、mastercard、stripe、bny等）设立的高度监管制度壁垒。Tether仍然是合规噩梦，在美国获得铸造功能或在Bitfinex等平台交易的权限仍然极其困难且不合法。USDC基本上已成为干净的USD，将与金融机构/银行更快地扩展规模，而USDT将在国际和监管较少的使用场景中大量存在（例如委内瑞拉人将本地货币转换为USDT，而不是RuneScape游戏金币，且无需通过大量KYC/AML流程）。但鉴于Tether的庞大规模，它将永远存在。
英文原文
Great question so here's my nuanced take about USDT, vs $CRCL USDC. Best example I can give is Onlyfans and Card Networks. It's not really allowed but Card networks still work with OF because of the amount of volume they process. Similarly, Tether is in a love-hate relationship with the US government. As for Tether, they're ~17th largest holder of US government debt in the world and are effectively holding $130B+ in treasuries. If the US government tries banning USDT, it might cause a chaotic sell-off in the treasury market. However, it still has strategic importance to spreading "dollarization", especially in countries like Argentina or Turkey and does help the USD become the dominant currency. It's still dominant Internationally, especially in "Grey Market" compliance + crypto trading,. However, $USDC has basically become the regulated private-sector extension of the US treasury, mainly in US markets. And USDC penetrated that highly regulated institutional wall with US financial instituions (visa, mastercard, stripe, bny, and so on). Tether still is a compliance headache and it's still extremely difficult and not legal to gain access to minting features/trading on Bitfinex etc in the US. USDC has basically become the clean USD and will scale up a lot faster with financial institutions/banking while USDT will be there a lot for international, less regulated use cases (eg. people converting local currencies in Venezuela to USDT instead of RuneScape GP without going through a ton of KYC/AML). But Tether will always be around given how massive it is.
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Circle作为美元数字化延伸，具国家安全和网络效应，建议极度做多。
1000%+ 的 Circle 论点：USDC 与私营部门美联储的崛起。 Circle $CRCL，连同 $NBIS 等标的，是我进入 2026 年高确信度的多头持仓，原因只有一个： Circle 已成为美国财政部的私营部门延伸。 在 180 亿美元市值下。 这是一个 10 倍以上的世代性机会，利用美元变得可编程且纯数字化的货币转变。 Circle 不是一家金融科技(Fintech)公司。它不应像传统公司那样被估值。作为数字印钞机，它是美国政府的国家安全利益。 以下是做多 Circle 的定性理由： 1. Circle 购买美国国债并作为美国财政部的私营部门延伸收取利息。 - 随着 USDC 市值扩张，Circle 购买更多短期美国国债。他们正成为世界上最大的单一美国债务持有者之一。 - 在 BRICS 和其他集团试图去美元化的时代，美国政府需要一种数字美元出口。Circle 将美元霸权瞬间传播给全球任何人，绕过当地银行限制。 - Circle 成为对其他外币（低利率或贬值）的有效“做空” -> 将本地货币转换为 Circle (USD) -> 买入美国债务。 对于 $CRCL：美国政府无法承受 Circle 失败。它拥有传统金融科技所没有的隐性“国家支持”战略护城河。 在 180 亿美元的估值下。 2. 网络效应： Circle + USDC 已经捕获了网络效应。 - 现在有数百种稳定币。Paypal USD, FDUSD, USD1, USDe 以及更多即将推出的。但 Circle + USDC 已经捕获了美国市场的网络效应（USDT 仍在国际上广泛使用）。 现在每个人都用 Circle USDC 结算，无论是 Visa、Stripe、银行还是更多。网络效应是 Meta/Reddit 拥有护城河的原因。也是为什么比特币市值超过 1.5 万亿美元。以及为什么 USDC 不会被新稳定币取代。 USDC 已成为结算、发行和存储的标准，并吞噬了所有以前的结算方法，如 T+2 或更长的 Swift/ACH 轨道。 Circle 在采用和公认的结算基础设施方面确保了终极网络效应。 随着使用量的增长 -> Circle 印更多的钱。 3. 私营到公开的滞后： 很多人不知道，但我私下也帮助硅谷风险投资公司进行尽职调查，针对金融科技种子/A/B 轮投资。 从个人经验来看，我看到创纪录的资金涌入 USDC 相关公司：无论是稳定币新银行（如由 USDC 驱动的 Mecury 银行）还是带有 USDC 的结算基础设施。 当然还有许多关于私营部门收购的公开新闻，例如 Stripe 以 11 亿美元收购 bridge，或银行开始研究 M&A 以创建 USDC 相关产品。 多年前这是 AI，我们看到了从 Anthropic 到 NVDA 在一两年后崛起的成果。 现在是稳定币 + USDC。 公开市场是滞后指标，它们尚未定价 USDC 成为公认结算轨道的必然性（比特币是数字黄金，USDC 是美元/结算）。 我们看到了 Circle 主要因浮动头寸动态而抛售，但我们可能会看到对冲基金试图积累对美元未来印钞机的控制权。 _ $CRCL 不仅仅是一只“加密股票”或“金融科技公司”，也不应像它们那样被估值（尤其是根据降息定价盈利能力）。 它基本上是美国美元的私营部门数字化。 自 GENIUS 法案以来，我们看到像 Circle 这样的公司申请特许状，并将 USDC 有效地连接到联邦储备系统。 现在我们终于看到了新的央行数字货币(CBDC) 的开始，但这次是通过 Circle 发行和私有化。 在 $84（180 亿美元市值）极度做多 Circle，作为地缘政治工具、标准结算货币以及美国财政部的私营部门延伸。
英文原文
The 1000%+ Circle Thesis: USDC and the Rise of a Private-Sector Federal Reserve. Circle $CRCL, alongside names like $NBIS, is now my high-conviction long going into 2026 for one reason: Circle has become the private-sector extension of the US Treasury. At a $18B MC. A 10x+ generational opportunity capitalizing on the monetary shift on the Dollar becoming programmable and purely digital. Circle is not a fintech company. It shouldn't be valued like a traditional one. It's a national security interest of the US Government as the digital money printer. Here's the qualitative reasons to long Circle: 1. Circle Buys US Debt and collects interest as the private-sector extension of the US Treasury. - As USDC market cap expands, Circle buys more short-dated US Treasuries. They are becoming one of the largest single holders of US debt in the world. - In an era where BRICS and other blocs are trying to de-dollarize, the US government needs a digital dollar export. Circle spreads USD hegemony instantly to anyone globally, bypassing local banking restrictions. - Circle becomes an effective "short" against other foreign currencies (with low interest or devaluation) -> convert local currencies to Circle (USD) -> buy into the US debt. For $CRCL: The US government cannot afford to let Circle fail. It has an implicit "state-backed" strategic moat that traditional fintechs do not have. At an $18B valuation. 2. Network effect: Circle + USDC has already captured the network effect. - There's hundreds of stablecoins now. Paypal USD, FDUSD, USD1, USDe, and many more to come. But Circle + USDC has already captured the network effect for the US markets (USDT, is still widely used internationally). Everyone settles with Circle USDC now, whether that's Visa, Stripe, Banks, or more. The network effect is why Meta/Reddit have their moats. Or why Bitcoin has a 1.5T+ market cap. And exactly why USDC won't be displaced by new stablecoins. USDC has already become the standard for settlement, issuance, storage, and cannibalizes all former settlement methods from T+2 or more rails such as Swift/ACH. Circle has secured the ultimate network effect both in adoption + agreed upon settlement infrastructure. With this, as more usage grows -> Circle prints more money. 3. The Private-to-Public Lag: Lot of people don't know but I help SV venture capital firms with DD as well for fintech Seed/Series A/B type investments on the side. From personal experience, I've seen a record breaking amount of funding pour into USDC-related companies: whether that's Stablecoin Neobanks (banks like Mecury, just powered by USDC) or settlement infrastructure with USDC. And of course many public-news about private sector acquisitions such as Stripe acquisition of bridge for $1.1B or Banks starting to look into M&A to create USDC related products. Many years ago this was AI and we've seen it come into fruition from Anthropic to NVDA's rise a year or two later. Now it's stablecoins + USDC. Public markets are lagging indicators and they haven't priced in the inevitability of USDC becoming the agreed upon settlement rail (Bitcoin for digital gold, USDC for USD/settlement). We've seen a selloff of Circle mainly due to float dynamics, but we'll likely see hedge funds try and accumulate control of the future money printer of the USD. _ $CRCL isn't just a "crypto stock" or "fintech company" and shouldn't be valued like one (especially pricing profitability from interest rates cuts). It's basically the private sector digitization of the US dollar. Ever since the GENIUS act, we're seeing companies like Circle file for charters, and effectively connect USDC into the federal reserve system. And now we're finally seeing the start of a new Central Bank Digital Currency, but this time issued and privatized through Circle. Go extraordinarily long on Circle at $84 ($18B MC) as both a geopolitical instrument, standard settlement currency, and as the private sector extension of US Treasury.
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网络效应是护城河，USDC成美合规结算首选。
完全不是。这是网络效应在起作用，这是一道令人难以置信的护城河。这就是为什么对于Reddit（$RDDT），任何人都可以在一天内创建一个类似的平台，但因为大家都同意使用它，价值就由此产生。显然Circle（$CRCL）受到更多监管，但从我所见，$USDC也存在同样的网络效应，它是发行/结算的公认货币。我经营一家使用稳定币进行铸造/结算的金融机构。处理其他任何代币（如出于监管原因的Tether）或其他铸造的稳定币（因缺乏流动性/公认结算资产或交易对）都是一场噩梦。USDC将长期存在（主要在美国），而Tether似乎因不同原因成为国际首选。从我交谈过的风险投资朋友来看，大家似乎都在将资金注入由USDC驱动的金融科技，如稳定币银行，其效用将开始扩展。
英文原文
Not at all. This is the network effect in play, which is an incredible moat. That’s what makes Reddit, $RDDT where anyone can create a similar platform in a day, but because everyone agrees to use it, that’s where the value comes from. Obviously $CRCL is a tad more regulated, but from what I’ve seen, there’s that same network effect with $USDC where it’s the agreed upon currency to issue/settle with. I run a financial institution that does minting/settlement with stablecoins. It’s a nightmare to deal with any other coin (like Tether for regulatory reasons) or other minted stablecoins for lack of liquidity/agreed upon settlement asset or trading pairs. USDC is here to stay (mainly for United States), Tether seems to be the asset of choice for international for different reasons. Just from the venture capital friends I’ve talked to everyone seems to be funneling money into USDC-powered fintechs, like Stablecoin Banks, and we’ll start the utility start to expand.
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重申NBIS长期看涨至250美元，对期权亏损致歉。
是的，我一个月前说 $NBIS 即使在 130 美元时也是极强的买入标的，这一观点我至今仍坚持，如果它交易在 125 美元我会买入。我认为跌至 75 美元就像 $HOOD 在关税恐慌中跌至 28 美元然后随着散户投降涨至 100 美元以上那样。如果人们跟随我的 Nebius 论点使用本月到期的期权，我感到非常内疚。我自己也因下跌在 3 月/5 月到期的期权上损失惨重。但中长期我相信一旦他们在 2026 年实现管理层预测，$NBIS 轻松突破 250 美元。
英文原文
Yep, you’re correct when I said that $NBIS is an extremely strong buy even at $130 a month ago. I still maintain that today, and would be buying Nebius if it were trading at $125. I believe the drop to $75 is like the moment when $HOOD dropped to $28 during tariff fears then went to $100+ when retail capitulated. I do feel extremely guilty if people followed my thesis on Nebius with options that expired this month. I lost a lot of money myself so far on March/May expiry options from the drop. But medium-long term I believe $NBIS easily blows past $250 once they achieve management projections in 2026
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作者认为AAOI和POET虽具十倍潜力但因执行风险未去风险化，不属于高确信度标的。
对我个人而言：当一家公司在根本上已“去风险化(de-risked)”并正从该点迈向规模化时，我才视其为“高确信度(high conviction)”标的。 例如，$NBIS 在与微软达成交易后。在光子学(photonics)领域，我个人更看好 $AAOI 而非 $POET。但它们都尚未“去风险化”。 正如你提到的，Poet 受益于 Celestial（已被 $MRVL 收购）。Marvell 基本上通过 Celestial 向超大规模云厂商(hyperscalers)出售 Poet 的中介层(interposer)，用于连接 TPU/Trainium。 但这中间隔着多层环节。 $AAOI 已经拥有与超大规模云厂商的直接合同，例如与 $AMZN 合作 Trainium，与 $MSFT 合作 Maia。此外还有类似 $ALAB 与亚马逊那样的股权协议。 然而，它们实现了完全垂直整合且工厂建在德克萨斯州。如果能让整个供应链在美国实现规模化并完美执行，它们有巨大的10倍增长潜力。 但由于相比 $COHR 规模较小，$AAOI 存在巨大的执行风险，因此不属于高确信度标的。$POET 同理，目前尚无让我完全确信的去风险化因素。 不过，Poet 和 AAOI 都是具备10倍潜力的光子学标的，这也是我持仓部分 $AAOI 的原因，但它们都不属于高确信度投资。
英文原文
For me personally: A stock is "high conviction" when they are fundamentally de-risked and are going from that point to scale. For example, $NBIS post-MSFT deal. I like $AAOI much better than $POET in the photonics space personally. But neither of them are "de-risked yet". So Poet as you mentioned, benefits from Celestial, which got acquired $MRVL. Marvell basically sells Poet's interposer via Celestial to hyperscalers for connecting tpus/trainium. But this is via multiple hops away. $AAOI already had direct hyperscaler contracts like $AMZN for Trainium + $MSFT for Maia. And equity agreements like what $ALAB has for Amazon. However, they're fully vertically integrated + built in Texas. They have a pretty big potential to 10X if they can get the whole supply chain to scale in America + perfect execution. But because they're at lower scale compared to $COHR, $AAOI has huge execution risk + it's not high-conviction. Same with $POET, there's no de-risking factor yet that would make me fully convinced. However, Poet and AAOI are both photonics plays that can 10x, which is why I have some $AAOI in my portfolio, but neither are high conviction.
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通过对比 IREN 缺乏核心 AI 资产，论证 NBIS 的竞争优势。
我会用一个关于 $NBIS 与 $IREN 的问题来回答你的问题。 IREN 是否拥有： - 一家由 Uber 规模化运营的 FSD（完全自动驾驶）L4 级 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）公司 - 一家被从 Tesla 到 Meta 等所有顶级公司使用的 DB（数据库）公司 - 一家被 Amazon、Anthropic 等使用的 AI 标注公司？ 这些业务是否都随着 Nebius 的主营业务实现了 100%+ 的同比增长？
英文原文
I will answer your question with a question regarding $NBIS vs $IREN. Does IREN have a: - FSD lvl4 robotaxi company scaled by Uber - a DB company used by every single top company from Tesla to Meta - an AI labeling company used by Amazon, Anthropic and others? Each growing 100%+ Y/Y alongside Nebius's main business?
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感谢 LITE 提醒，并把它和 CRDO/ALAB 的连接层逻辑并列
感谢提醒 $LITE。 我之前没有意识到它对 $NVDA Blackwell、$GOOGL TPU 和 $AMZN Trainium 芯片有多关键。 离谱的是，它竟然处在每家 hyperscaler 的单 GPU/TPU/ASIC 核心环节里（这也是为什么它是高信念标的）。 至于 $CRDO，它和 $ALAB 类似，都是高 Nvidia 式利润率、三位数同比增长，以及依赖 hyperscaler 连接需求的逻辑。
英文原文
Thanks for the $LITE shoutout. I didn't realize how instrumental it was to $NVDA blackwell, $GOOGL TPUs, and $AMZN Trainium chips. Insane how it's part the core of single GPU/TPU/ASIC from every hyperscaler (hence why it's high-conviction) As for $CRDO, similar ground to $ALAB regarding high-Nvidia like margins, triple digit Y/Y growth, and hyperscaler dependencies for connectivity.
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说明稳定币与 BTC 下行周期相对隔离
好问题。稳定币其实和 BTC 下跌趋势是分开的，尽管算法层面会影响该行业公司/资产的市值。 即使加密价格下跌，USDC/Tether 的供应量也会增加。机构会在加密下行周期中把 BTC 卖成 USDT/USDC，而不是放在银行账户里。 尤其现在在风投领域，Lightspeed、Sequoia 等都在把钱投向和稳定币相关的公司，比如 neobank；其中很多投资会在 6 个月到 1 年后开始产生回报。 我会在另一篇帖子里写更深入的 thesis，但总体上，我看好稳定币和 Bitcoin；即使 Bitcoin 处于下行趋势，稳定币和发行方也是相对隔离的。
英文原文
Good question, stablecoins are actually separate from the BTC downtrend, even though algorithmically this affects the marketcaps of companies/assets in the sector. USDC/Tether increases in supply even as crypto prices go down. Institutions sell BTC for USDT/USDC while crypto is in a downtrend instead of holding it in bank accounts. Especially in venture capital right now, lightspeed/sequioa/etc. are pouring money into stablecoin related companies like Neobanks, and lot of these investments pay dividends 6 months.-1 year later. I'll write up a more in-depth thesis in another post but generally, I'm bullish on stablecoins and Bitcoin, and even if Bitcoin is in a downtrend, stablecoins + issuers are isolated.
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列出 Circle 的几个主要空头情景
几个空头情景： - 美联储推出自己的 CBDC，比如 Fed Coin，或者推出另一个稳定币来直接竞争。 - 美联储继续降息到 1%，而 $CRCL 必须不断印 USDC 来弥补收入损失。 - 监管，比如下一届政府任命 Gary Gensler 这类人物，或者 USDC 在其他国家被禁。 但如果事情继续按现在的方向发展，Circle 未来应该是一家 500 亿美元以上的公司。
英文原文
Few bear cases: - Fed creates it's own CBDC like Fed Coin or another stablecoin to compete directly. - Fed keeps cutting rates down to 1% and $CRCL needs to keep printing USDC to make up for lost revenue. - Regulation - eg. next administration puts in a gary gensler or usdc gets banned in other countries But if things go the way they're going now, Circle deserves to be a $50B+ company down the road.
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解释此前回避 Circle 是因为流通盘动态，现在重新看多
可以。所以我之前一直说，在 Circle 市值 600 亿美元时，要避开 Circle，或者做空 $CRCL、做多 $COIN。 原因是大家没理解流通盘动态。 大部分流通股被锁定，不能卖，类似于 BULL IPO。等流通股释放后，Circle 股价就崩了。 降息也会伤害稳定币铸币利息带来的盈利能力，但流通盘动态才是压倒性的最大因素。 我一直看好 USDC，但市值非常关键。现在它回到 180 亿美元，就变成了极强的买入机会。
英文原文
Sure, so I've been saying avoid Circle or short $CRCL long $COIN when Circle was trading at a $60B marketcap. This was because people didn't understand float dynamics. Majority of the float was locked up and couldn't be sold, similar to BULL IPO. When float was released, the price on Circle crashed. There's stuff like rate cuts too hurting profitability from interest on minted stablecoins, but float dynamics was the biggest factor by a longshot. I've always been bullish on USDC, but market cap plays a huge role. Now it's an extraordinarily strong buy back at $18B
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说明 USDC 发行和公链网络价值捕获的关系
@dubiousnoob 所以 $CRCL 和 $COIN 是 USDC 的发行方，你说它是在 Ethereum 上发行是对的。 但它也在 Solana、Base、Polygon 等网络上发行。具体网络没那么重要。 Ethereum 网络是基础设施，但 USDC 并不会给 Ethereum 代币带来太多价值捕获。
英文原文
@dubiousnoob So $CRCL and $COIN are the issuers of USDC, you’re correct in saying it’s issued on Ethereum. But it’s also done on Solana, Base, Polygon, and so on. Network doesn’t matter much. Ethereum’s network is the infrastructure but USDC doesnt accrue much value to Ethereum’s token.
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认为 USDC 已成为结算标准，价值远超当前估值
$CRCL 是稳定币，和 Ethereum 或 Solana 这类 L1 没什么关系，因为它们并不重要。 thesis 在于，它正在成为一种结算标准（Visa、PayPal、YouTube 等），而这种网络效应的价值远远超过它 170 亿美元的估值。 这既符合美国政府把更多人纳入美元/美国债务体系的战略利益，也符合全球公司的利益。 人们当然可以铸造 PayPal USD、Paxos USD 等，但 USDC 基本已经成了大家认可的标准，这一点极其、极其有价值。
英文原文
$CRCL is stablecoins, has nothing to do with L1s like Ethereum or Solana since it doesn’t matter. Thesis involves that it’s becoming just a standard for settlement (visa, PayPal, YouTube, etc.) and that network effect is worth infinitely more than its $17B valuation both in us government strategic interest to get people into the US dollar/debt system as well as the global companies. People can mint PayPal usd, paxos usd, etc but USDC has basically become the agreed upon standard and this is incredibly, incredibly valuable.
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比较一组高增长标的的高估和低估程度
所以我会说，$RKLB 现在肯定是最被高估的。 $LITE 正接近超买区间，但考虑到它在 TPUv7、Trainium 和 Blackwell 芯片中的关键性，它确实值得重估。 $NBIS 和 $CRCL 是这组里最被低估的，然后是 $ALAB。
英文原文
So I’d say $RKLB is definitely the most overvalued right now. $LITE is edging toward the overbought territory but it definitely warrants a re-rating given how critical it is in TPUv7, Trainium, and Blackwell chips. $NBIS and $CRCL are most undervalued out of the bunch, then goes $ALAB.
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列出更稳的十倍股和小盘 moonshot
如果说“更安全”的 10 倍股，我会说未来 5 年是 $RKLB 和 $NBIS。 我完全能想象 Rocket Lab 有一天到 3000 亿美元估值，Nebius 到 2000 亿美元估值。 市值越小，10 倍概率越高（比如低于 20 亿美元）。显然，对 $HOOD 这类公司来说，一年翻倍要难得多。 但在小盘股里，$AAOI、$WLAC 和 $TE 是我喜欢小仓位参与的那类 moonshot。
英文原文
So for a “safer” 10x. I’d say $RKLB and $NBIS next 5 years. I could definitely see Rocketlab at $300B valuation and Nebius at $200B one day. The chance of a 10x increases the smaller marketcap they are (eg. Sub $2B), and it’s obviously much harder for companies like $HOOD to double in a year. But for smaller caps, $AAOI, $WLAC, and $TE are those types of moonshots I like to dabble in.
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公布 2026 年五只高信念多倍股
我在个人组合的极端增长高信念篮子里新增了 2 只股票。 在更长时间框架上，我对高信念股票从来没错过（比如 $HOOD 从 18 美元到 100+ 美元）。 我 2026 年的 5 只高信念多倍股现在是： $NBIS - AI 算力和 Robotaxi $RKLB - 太空 $ALAB - 连接 新增的两只是： $CRCL - 印钞机 $LITE - hyperscaler ASIC 我后面会写 Circle 和 Lite 的更长 DD thesis。 我有信心，只持有这 5 只，就会大幅跑赢 99.9% 的组合。
英文原文
I’ve added 2 new stocks to my extreme growth high conviction basket in my personal portfolio. I’ve never been wrong before about high conviction stocks on longer timeframes (eg. $HOOD $18 -> $100+) My 5 high conviction multi-bagger stocks for 2026 are now: $NBIS - AI Compute and Robotaxis $RKLB - Space $ALAB - Connectivity And the two new ones are: $CRCL - Money Printer $LITE - Hyperscaler ASICs I’ll do longer DD thesis on Circle and Lite on follow ups. I’m confident having just these 5 will heavily outperform 99.9% of portfolios.
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用电竞和股票交易开玩笑
@goatyishere @PolymarketMoney 对我来说，成为电竞作弊器只是我交易 $TE 这类股票时的支线任务。 我在小组赛阶段就知道 T1 会赢。 有些东西就是写在星星里的，15 美元变 320 万美元很简单！
英文原文
@goatyishere @PolymarketMoney Being a cheat code for esports is just a side quest for me when I trade stocks like $TE. I knew t1 would win during group stages. There’s just some things written in the stars, $15->$3.2m is easy! https://t.co/DLAZnalCRM
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祝对方欧洲旅行愉快，提到自己在亚洲旅行
@DeepValueBagger 祝你在欧洲玩得开心！ 我最近一直在东南亚附近旅行，比如关岛和日本。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Have fun in Europe! I’ve been spending my time traveling around SEA like Guam and Japan recently https://t.co/NS2cOQvDtl
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调侃 FT 采访和 DUOL 回复
@RJCcapital @FT @retail_mourinho @zephyr_z9 @jiahanjimliu @DeepValueBagger @NighthawkTradez 当 FT 做我的个人采访时，我唯一的回复就是 $DUOL。 那时候他们就知道必须把 RJC 也加进名单里了。
英文原文
@RJCcapital @FT @retail_mourinho @zephyr_z9 @jiahanjimliu @DeepValueBagger @NighthawkTradez When FT did my individual interview my only reply was $DUOL. That’s when they knew they had to include RJC on the list too.
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称 NBIS 即使更高也想买，但现金不足
@soulbiri1 对。如果 $NBIS 今天是 135 美元，我还是会买；但很遗憾，在下跌尾端我已经没有足够干火药继续部署了。 最后我买了光子玩家和 Circle 的长期仓位。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yep. If $NBIS was $135 today I’d still buying - but ran out of dry capital to deploy on the full tail end of the drop sadly. Ended up buying long term positions in photonics players and Circle though
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认为 Nebius 基本面没变，情绪转向且收购叙事增强
像 $NBIS 这样的公司，基本面没有任何变化（除了继续改善）。变化的只是市场情绪突然切换了。 但现在，Wedbush 的 Dan Ives 这样的人突然出来说：“Nebius 可能在 2026 年被 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 这样的 hyperscaler 收购”，这极其利多。
英文原文
Nothings fundamentally changed (aside from improving) about companies like $NBIS. Aside from the sentiment flipping the switch. But suddenly we have people like Dan Ives from Wedbush going out and saying "Nebius likely gets acquired by a hyperscaler like $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN " in 2026, which is incredibly bullish.
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OpenAI 高估值融资改善 AI 数据中心与供应链风险偏好
最新消息：OpenAI 在完成 5000 亿美元估值、100 亿美元以上的 Amazon 轮融资后，正在以 7500 亿美元估值继续融资。 $CRWV：+15.85% $NBIS：+10.28% 有了这笔交易，像 CoreWeave 和 Oracle 这样的公司，在为 OpenAI 的资本开支需求建设容量时，对手方风险在结构上降低了，因为 OpenAI 的资产负债表更强了。 像 Nebius 这种算法上和行业龙头绑定的公司，也因此上涨。 从 Rocket Lab 到 Bitcoin，高 beta 资产普遍上涨。 最近因为日元套息交易解除，加上今天大量未平仓合约到期，市场出现了极端波动。 不过，AI 交易的基本面（尤其是 Micron 神级财报显示了极强内存需求）以及 Neocloud 的基本面，仍然比以往更好。
英文原文
Latest news: OpenAI is raising funds at a $750B valuation after their $10B+ Amazon round at $500B. $CRWV: +15.85% $NBIS: +10.28% With this deal, companies like Coreweave and Oracle structurally have less counterparty risk with OpenAI's stronger balance sheet to fund capex requirements. Companies like Nebius that are algorithmically tied to the sector leaders are up as a result. High-Beta Assets from Rocketlab to Bitcoin are up across the board. There was extreme volatility recently with the Yen carry trade unwinding + large open interest expiring today. However, the fundamentals of the AI trade (especially with Micron's godlike ER showing extreme memory demand), and Neoclouds remain better than ever.
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认为 TAE 若商业化聚变，DJT 估值上限很高
@Toy0tomi_H TAE 是硅谷聚变能源的皇冠明珠，所以它要和 $DJT 合并的消息真的让我措手不及。 如果 TAE 到 2030 年成功商业化聚变，1000 亿美元以上估值都算极其保守，哈哈。
英文原文
@Toy0tomi_H TAE is silicon valley's crown jewel for fusion energy, so the news about merging with $DJT really caught me off guard. If TAE successfully commercializes fusion by 2030, $100B+ is extremely conservative lol.
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梳理 DJT 从社交媒体到聚变收购的荒诞估值难题
$DJT 刚刚变成股票市场的皇冠明珠了吗？ 我真的难以置信： 1. 被 X/Meta 封禁 2. IPO 一个社交媒体创业公司 3. 卖圣经、西装和运动鞋 4. 成为美国总统 5. 卖 10 万美元陀飞轮手表 6. 发行 memecoin 7. 发行 crypto ETF 8. 购入数十亿美元 Bitcoin 并建立战略储备 9. 发行 USD1 稳定币 10. 收购 Google 宠爱的核聚变公司，而且它恰好是世界领导者 （Google 真的派工程师去帮 TAE 反应堆稳定等离子体，高盛也是投资者） -> 股价上涨 46%。 $DJT 现在因为 TAE 真的变得可投资了吗（可能还结合总统审批来加速监管通关）？ 市场是不是正难以置信地看着下一个 Microsoft 形成？ 给 Trump 的公司估值，真是一个绝对头疼的问题。
英文原文
Did $DJT just become the crown jewel of the stock market? I’m genuinely in disbelief: 1. Get Banned from X/Meta 2. IPO social media startup 3. Sell Bibles, Suits, and Sneakers 4. Become US President 5. Sell $100K Tourbillion Watches 6. Launch memecoin 7. Launch crypto ETFs 8. Acquire billions in Bitcoin and build a strategic reserve 9. Launch USD1 Stablecoin 10. Acquire Google-Darling Nuclear Fusion company that’s happens to be the world leader. (Google literally sent their engineers to stabilize plasma in TAE’s reactors + Goldman Sachs are investors) -> Send stock up 46%. Did $DJT actually investable now with TAE (likely combing president approval for speed running regulation)? And are markets watching in disbelief of the next Microsoft in making? How you value Trump’s company is an absolute headache.
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询问 Bitfinex 企业合约与费率锁定
@bitfinex 嘿，如果这是真的，有没有 Bitfinex 员工能联系我，讨论设置长期企业合约和费率锁定？ @paoloardoino
英文原文
@bitfinex Hey if this true, is there any bitfinex employee that can reach out regarding setting up a long term enterprise contract and a fee rate lock in? @paoloardoino