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发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
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调侃NBIS未造军用激光致持仓成本过高
@Neomeldir $NBIS 不幸的是并不为美国国防部制造死光激光武器。如果他们真的这么做，并将其安装在 Avride 的自动驾驶出租车上，我的持仓成本(PT)就会是 $500。
英文原文
@Neomeldir $NBIS unfortunately doesn't make death ray lasers for US DoD. If they did and attached them to Avride robotaxis, my PT would be $500.
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梳理高纯铜、铜钨及铜基建相关的美股标的。
@Ren_aramb 好问题，对于高纯度铜（无氧铜/铜铬锆合金），是 $FCX 和 $SCCO。 $MTRN 用于铜钨合金(Copper-Tungsten)。 $APH 和 $TEL 用于引擎到激光器之间的铜基础设施。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb Good question, so for high purity copper (OFHC Copper / CuCrZr), $FCX and $SCCO. $MTRN for CuW (Copper-Tungsten). $APH and $TEL for copper infra between engine -> laser.
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LASR激光武器走红，但作者认为其非良好投资标的。
我只是说这是一家做“激光定向能武器”的很酷的公司，而且正在走红。但这并不意味着 $LASR 是一笔好的投资（我目前没有任何持仓）。但我确实看到，如果他们成功开发出能向下照射任何人或物的“死光”激光，那将具有令人捧腹的潜力。
英文原文
I'm just saying it's a really cool company that does these "laser directed energy weapons" that's going viral. But that doesn't mean $LASR is a good investment (I have no positions yet). But I do see there being hilarious potential if they successfully build out death ray lasers that can beam down anyone or anything.
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未持有LASR因增长预期不足，但认可其技术实力。
@goAI88 我没有持有 $LASR 的头寸。不过要感谢 @pennycheck 之前向我介绍了这家公司。 我只是觉得 26% 的同比(Y/Y)营收增长预期吸引力不够。 但他们确实正在做非常、非常酷的事情。
英文原文
@goAI88 I have no positions in $LASR. Shoutout to @pennycheck for telling me about this company earlier on though. I just didn't find 26% Y/Y projected revenue growth attractive enough. But they are doing extremely, extremely cool stuff though.
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推荐 $LASR 作为定向能武器领域最纯粹的投资标的。
$LASR (NLight) 是一家市值 22 亿美元的美国公司，从事定向能武器 (Directed Energy Weapons) 业务。他们制造“死光”——用于拦截弹道导弹和高超音速导弹的激光武器。这项技术可被改造为从太空向地球发射的轨道“死光”。以色列的“铁束”系统 (Iron Beam，激光防空系统) 也采用了 NLight 的技术。因此，如果你想投资定向能武器，$LASR 是最纯粹的投资标的。
英文原文
$LASR (NLight), a $2.2B US company does these directed energy weapons. They build the "Death Ray" - Lasers that shoot down ballistic and hypersonic missiles. This can be adapted to Orbital death rays beaming from Space down to Earth. Israel's Iron Beam system (Laser Air Defense) uses NLight too. So if you want to invest in Directed Energy Weapons, $LASR is the purest play.
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博主回应请求，计划明日发布包含SKYT等标的的深度研报。
@DonkeyCapital69 没问题，我明天会写一篇。这类深度研报(writeups)非常耗时！ 我回顾了一些2025年的旧案例，比如南亚科(Nanya)。它在短短3个月内涨幅超过100%，这简直太疯狂了。 这次我会加入一些大家询问我反馈的标的，比如 $SKYT 或 $VELO。
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@DonkeyCapital69 Sure, I’ll do one tomorrow. Those types of writeups take a lot of time! Was looking at some old ones back in 2025 like Nanya. Ended up 100%+ in just 3 months, which is crazy. I’ll add some stuff like $SKYT or $VELO this time that people asked my feedback on.
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INTC财报重创持仓，但已对冲，下周拟利用波动率下降寻找机会。
@platochi 哭吧，$INTC 的财报评论摧毁了我半导体投资组合的其余部分。说笑归说笑，下周可能会寻找机会，因为做市商(MMs)正在打压隐含波动率(IV)，人们开始恐慌性抛售他们的虚值看涨期权(OTM calls)。幸运的是，我在财报前对冲了大量头寸。
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@platochi Cry as $INTC ER comments nukes the rest of my semi portfolio. Jokes aside probably looking for opportunities next week as MMs crush IV + people start panic selling their OTM calls. Luckily I hedged a ton for earnings
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以英特尔为例，强调基本面未变时应耐心持有，时间是最大资产。
$INTC 暴跌 17%，收盘回到 $45。 短期期权下跌 95%+，LEAPS（长期期权）下跌 40%+。 英特尔是“股票不会直线上涨”（除非是 $SNDK）的完美例证。而且它在过去 1 个月内仍上涨了 26%。 如果基本面逻辑未变（做多白宫政策/国家安全），最好等待其兑现。 对于 $AXTI 几个月内磷化铟(InP) 瓶颈潜力或 $VPG 一年后 Optimus 量产潜力的其他股票也是如此。 时间是最宝贵的资产。
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$INTC crashes 17% and finishes the day back at $45. Short dated options are down 95%+ with leaps down 40%+. Intel is the perfect example of “Stocks don’t move in a straight line up” (unless it’s $SNDK). And it’s still up 26% in 1M. If the fundamental thesis hasn’t changed (Long White House policy/National Security), it’s probably best to wait for it to play out. Same goes for any other stock from $AXTI InP bottleneck potential in a few months or $VPG potential Optimus ramp in a year. Time is the most valuable asset.
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质疑特斯拉Optimus量产进度，认为最新言论暗示延迟。
@jayjay12246 我的意思是，鉴于埃隆两天前表示他们已在弗里蒙特工厂正式开始了“Optimus Gen 3 (V3) 人形机器人的大规模生产(Mass Production)”，我以为会早一些。但他今天的言论暗示存在延迟，所以真的不太确定。 https://t.co/qxSZxmYsbt
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@jayjay12246 I mean I thought it would be earlier given Elon said 2 days ago that they've officially started mass production "Mass Production Optimus Gen 3 (V3) humanoid robot at its Fremont". But his statements today imply delays, so really not quite sure. https://t.co/qxSZxmYsbt
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推荐欣兴电子，因其布局广泛且鲜为人知。
@genZinvest0r 说得在理！我只是想把欣兴电子(Unimicron) $UMC 放到大家的视野中，因为绝大多数人以前都没听说过这只股票。在我看来，这似乎是一个极佳的做多(long)机会，因为它在位置布局上涉及众多不同的建设(buildouts)项目。
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@genZinvest0r That’s fair! I’m just putting Unimicron on people’s radar since this a stock the vast majority of people have not heard about before. It just seems like an incredible long to me since positionally it sits in so many different buildouts
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推荐IBKR交易全球市场，TTMI作为替代，并提示市场机会众多。
我在美国，但经常四处旅行。$IBKR 可以访问大多数市场。话虽如此，如果你想避免外汇费用，$TTMI（一年涨幅267%）等美国标的可以提供类似的敞口，但显然并不完全相同。此外，我讨论的话题很多，市场上还有大量其他机会。
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US, but I travel around a lot. $IBKR has access to most markets. That being said there are similar US plays like $TTMI (up 267% 1Y) for similar exposure if you want to avoid foreign fees but obviously not quite the same. Also I talk about a lot of things, there's tons of other opportunities out there
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NBIS长期增长强劲但短期受增发压制，Q3或迎拐点。
关于 $NBIS，这是一只长期表现惊人的股票，因为其旗下四家公司的业务同比增长均超过100%，其中主营业务更是增长了700%+。 然而短期内，他们拥有超过20亿美元的活跃 ATM（增发融资），这带来了巨大的抛压。 我预计第三季度情况会好转，届时市场开始提前交易其70亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）目标。Clickhouse 150亿美元的估值非常看涨，此外还应关注 $UBER 与 avirde 合作的 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）进展。除此之外，近期进展相当缓慢，缺乏引人注目的亮点。
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As for $NBIS, amazing long term stock since all 4 of their companies are growing 100%+ y/y with their main business 700%+. However near term, they have an active $2B+ ATM, which introduces tons of selling pressure. I’d expect things to pick up q3 when markets start frontrunning their $7B ARR target. Clickhouse $15B valuation was incredibly bullish + should pay attention to $UBER Robotaxi ramp with avirde. That aside been pretty slow without much flashy developments.
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欣兴电子处于关键供应链瓶颈，但西方投资者难以交易。
@PhotonCap 欣兴电子(Unimicron)身处众多未来建设计划及潜在瓶颈环节之中，因此对我来说也极具吸引力。话虽如此，由于它在台湾证券交易所(TWSE)上市，西方投资者很难获得交易权限。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Unimicron sits in so many future buildouts and potential bottlenecks so it’s incredibly interesting to me as well. That being said it’s hard for Westerners to get access to since it trades on TWSE
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AEHR具登月潜力，Sonoma订单或关联MU HBM4，但尚无确凿证据。
@Lotharinvest 我了解 $AEHR，正如你所说，它具有“登月式”（moonshot）的结构（例如，最近 550 万美元的 Sonoma 订单与 $MU HBM4 16-high 资格认证阶段相符）。目前尚无确凿的关联证据。
英文原文
@Lotharinvest I’m aware of $AEHR, it has the structure of a moonshot (eg. $5.5M Sonoma order recently in line with $MU HBM4 16-hi qualification phase) as you mentioned. No confirmed links yet.
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英特尔是政策驱动的非对称多头，短期期权风险不影响长期逻辑。
我不认为有人预期 $INTC 能在1-2个季度内交付所有成果。这是最不对称的多头头寸之一，因为这是一场等待游戏，且有美国政府为建立其晶圆代工厂提供的无限后盾。我会说这是对政策的多头押注，而非基本面。就时机而言，大量短期深度虚值看涨期权（OTM Calls）的情况有点令人担忧。但如果你做多未来几年，这其实并不重要。
英文原文
I don't think anyone expected $INTC to deliver everything in 1-2 quarter. It's one of the most asymmetrical longs there are, since it's a waiting game with infinite backstop from US Gov to buildout their foundry. I'd say it's a long on policy, not fundamentals. In terms of timing the amount of short term way OTM calls are a bit worrysome. But it shouldn't really matter if you're long for the next few years.
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看好欣兴电子，作为AI供应链关键瓶颈，受益于存储及先进封装需求。
我持有市场忽视的$MU相关头寸： 欣兴电子(Unimicron)。 这家市值160亿美元的公司是极佳的长线标的，因为它是以下领域的基础供应商： - $MU和三星的存储基板 - $NVDA的Rubin/Blackwell架构 - 台积电(TSMC)的CoWoS工艺 - 苹果（iPhone和M系列芯片） - 谷歌TPU - AMZN/超大规模云厂商的ASIC - 英特尔的ABF基板 - 购买欣兴基板的Amkor - 以及全球所有半导体。 欣兴电子是全球AI供应链中最显著的“瓶颈”之一，因为它提供面向2026-2028年的未来核心部件： - 用于HBM4/存储（DRAM/NAND）+ GPU/CPU的IC基板 - 台积电CoWoS中的“S”（基板） - 用于CoPoS的玻璃核心基板 以及当前iPhone等设备所需的所有基础部件。 它处于存储瓶颈、CoWoS瓶颈以及超大规模云厂商ASIC互连瓶颈的中心。 同时也涵盖未来周期的玻璃核心基板等。 AI围绕另一家Micron（欣兴）展开，你可以借此暴露于当今及未来最热门的瓶颈环节。
英文原文
I've hold positions in the $MU that markets sleep on: Unimicron. This one is an incredible long at $16B as they're foundational for: - $MU and Samsung memory substrates - $NVDA Rubin/Blackwell - TSMC for CoWoS process - Apple (iPhones and M-series) - Google TPUs - AMZN/Hyperscaler ASICs - Intel for ABF substrates - Amkor that buys Unimicron substrates - and all the world's semis. Unimicron is one of the most significant "choke points" in the global AI supply chain as they provide the future: - IC Substrates for HBM4 / Memory (DRAM/NAND) + GPUs/CPUs - The "S" (substrate) in TSM CoWoS - Glass Core Substrates for CoPoS for 2026-2028 and all the foundational parts for customer devices like IPhones and semiconductors used today. They're in the center of the memory bottleneck, CoWoS bottleneck, and interconnects bottleneck for Hyperscaler ASiCs. As well as the future cycles with Glass Core substrates and more. AI revolves around the other Micron and you get exposure to most popular bottlenecks like HBM today and tomorrow.
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中国AI企业受推理算力限制，凸显英伟达在供应链中的绝对主导地位。
有很多报道称中国科技公司（字节跳动、$BABA 等）在推理算力上正面临困境。 中国可能仍未改变其国内自主可控的目标，但推理限制的严峻现实可能迫使他们做出妥协。 这恰恰证明了 $NVDA 的主导地位，即 AI 企业若没有它便无法运转。
英文原文
There were many reports Chinese tech (bytedance, $BABA, etc) were struggling with inference capacity. China still hasn’t likely changed their domestic self-reliance goal but reality of inference limits likely forced their hand. Just goes to show how dominant $NVDA is that AI firms can’t function without it
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英特尔股价回落，CFO财报会表现糟糕。
@acchcch $INTC 股价已回到周一的水平。抛开价格不谈，首席财务官(CFO)在财报电话会议上的表现糟糕透顶。
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@acchcch $INTC price is back to where it was… Monday. Price aside, the CFO sounded horrendous on the earnings call
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提醒通过东京交易所交易3110.T，券商接入有限且OTC价差大。
@joaofrios 通过东京证券交易所交易 $3110.T。不过，并非每家券商都能接入日本市场。虽然有场外交易(OTC)版本，但我确信其买卖价差会非常大。
英文原文
@joaofrios $3110.T through Tokyo Stock exchange. Not every broker has access to Japanese markets tough. There is an OTC version but I’m sure the spreads are extremely large.
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日企Nitto Boseki垄断AI关键材料T-glass，巨头争抢供应至2026年。
Nitto Boseki - $NBCLF | 3110: AI极端瓶颈的故事： > 1923年开始纺纱/玻璃纤维 > 做到极致 > 为网球拍创造“T-Glass”（T-玻璃） > 等待100年，所有人都需要它 > $TSM 用于 CoWoS（芯片级封装） > $APPL 用于 M-Series Ultra/Max > $NVDA 用于 Blackwell + Vera Rubin > $TSLA 用于 FSD 汽车内的芯片 > $AMD 用于 MI300/MI400 AI 加速器 > $ANET 用于 800G 到 1.6T 和 3.2T > 苹果、英伟达和台积电争夺供应 > 已售罄至 2026 年 > 苹果、英伟达和高通派团队驻厂，字面意义上向这家纱线制造商乞求玻璃供应 > 目前在半导体用高端 T-glass 市场占据 80-90% 份额 这家价值 42.3 亿美元的垄断企业，全球科技公司都在争夺： 一家随机的日本纱线制造商。 披露：我持有头寸。
英文原文
Nitto Boseki - $NBCLF | 3110: The story of an extreme bottleneck for AI: > Spin Yarn/Glass in 1923 > Be good at it > Create "T-Glass" for tennis rackets > Wait 100Y, everyone needs it > $TSM for CoWoS > $APPL for M-Series Ultra/Max > $NVDA for Blackwell + Vera Rubin > $TSLA for chips inside FSD cars > $AMD for MI300/MI400 AI accelerators > $ANET for 800G to 1.6T and 3.2T > Have Apple to Nvidia to TSM fighting over supply > Sold out through 2026 > Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm sends teams live on site to literally beg this Yarn Maker for glass supply > Now is 80-90% market share of the high-end T-glass used in semiconductors The $4.23 Billion monopoly that every tech company in the world is fighting over: A random Japanese Yarn Spinner. Disclosure: I own positions.
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反思未在META跌至603美元时加大买入力度。
@pepemoonboy 我本应在 $META 跌至 603 美元时更多地通过成本平均法(Cost Averaging)买入。 https://t.co/6LEijFygpy
英文原文
@pepemoonboy I should have cost averaged $META more on the drop to $603. https://t.co/6LEijFygpy
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POET财务强劲且无债，下跌属过度反应，现价具吸引力。
如果看今天的财报，$POET 处于极佳的位置。当然，这是以牺牲前散户股东为代价的。无债务，约4.35亿美元现金对应10亿美元市值。他们可以利用这笔资金储备为 Celestial 扩大生产/库存。其稀释效应不像 $BMNR 那样，为了向 Mr. Beast 的巧克力棒公司投入2亿美元。所以我认为这次下跌反应过度了，能以低于承销商价格4%以上的价格买入很不错。
英文原文
$POET is in an extremely good spot if you look at the financials today. Of course this is at the expense of former retail shareholders. No debt, ~435M cash to $1B MC. And they can use that war chest to ramp up production/inventory for Celestial. Dilution isn't like $BMNR to put $200m into Mr. Beast's chocolate bar company. So I'd say the drop was quite the overreaction and it's nice to get in 4%+ underneath underwriter prices.
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POET 暴跌后作者认为估值合理，虽认为时机稍早但选择逢低买入。
$POET 在直接发行 1.5 亿美元股份（发行价 7.25 美元）后暴跌 17%。 考虑到新增 2060 万股，其市值约为 10.2 亿美元，目前手握约 4.2 亿至 4.5 亿美元的现金储备（war chest）。 在我看来，这是一个不错的机会，因为机构发行价为 7.25 美元。 Poet 的光学中介层（optical interposers）是解决磷化铟（InP）瓶颈的真正方案，且拥有超大规模云服务商（hyperscaler）的后门渠道。特别是因为他们向 $MRVL 的 Celestial 光子网络（photonic fabric）供应 Starlight 产品。 我认为公司提前了 5-8 个月，所以我个人没有做多。 但我个人在这个价位买入，以利用这次下跌。
英文原文
$POET has crashed 17% after a direct offering of $150m in shares at $7.25. They’re now sitting on a ~$420-$450m war chest with a ~$1.02B MC factoring in 20.6M new shares. IMO this is a decent opportunity as the institutional offering price was $7.25. Poet’s optical interposers are a genuine bottleneck fix to InP and they have a hyperscaler backdoor. Especially because they supply Starlight to $MRVL Celestial photonic fabric. IMO company is 5-8 months a bit early so I’m not personally long. But I personally ended up buying at this level to take advantage of the drop.
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AXTI光子学原料受出口禁令影响，数月后或现瓶颈。
@0x_ysn 这与存储芯片关系不大，因为 $AXTI 涉及的是光子学(Photonics)输入端，几个月内会出现瓶颈。我们将看到西方公司在两周前的出口禁令后，还有多少个月的原料/前驱体库存可供消耗。
英文原文
@0x_ysn Not really related to memory since $AXTI is for photonics inp bottleneck in a few months time. We’ll see how many months of feedstock/precursors Western companies have + use up post export-ban 2 weeks ago.
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博主回应粉丝，承认遗漏了NVMI和CAMT两只股票。
@Mamocap 谢谢，我错过了 $NVMI。有人提到了 $CAMT，我上面那份名单里不小心漏掉了它。
英文原文
@Mamocap Thanks missed out on $NVMI. Someone else mentioned $CAMT, I left it out of the list above by accident.
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确认CAMT为HBM4明确受益标的。
@markabelsantos 是的，$CAMT 是高带宽内存第四代(HBM4)的明确受益者。
英文原文
@markabelsantos Yeah $CAMT is a clear beneficiary for HBM4
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澄清MRAM不属于英伟达或美光HBM4堆栈。
@Lotharinvest $MRAM 并不位于 $NVDA / $MU 的高带宽内存第四代(HBM4) 堆栈内部。
英文原文
@Lotharinvest $MRAM does not sit inside the $NVDA / $MU HBM4 stack.
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Rambus凭HBM4 IP高毛利躺赚三星等大厂，是潜力黑马。
是的，$RMBS 是一匹黑马。三星曾公开表示“Rambus HBM4 IP 解决方案的可用性至关重要”。 他们正趁着存储周期，从三星、SK 海力士和 $MU 身上获利，毛利率高达 81% 以上。 他们虽没有三大巨头那样的定价权，但利润应该只会源源不断。
英文原文
Yeah, $RMBS is a sleeper pick. Samsung went out and said "availability of Rambus HBM4 IP solutions will be critical". They're just profiting off Samsung, Sk Hynix, and $MU off during memory cycle with 81%+ gross profit margins. They don't quite get the same pricing power like the big three do but it should just print.
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梳理受益于美光及三星的HBM4供应链中小市值美股标的。
存储超级周期供应链要点： 受益于 $MU 和 SK/三星的美国冷门 HBM4/存储阿尔法标的： $VECO ($20亿) - 激光退火 $PLAB ($21亿) - 光刻掩模版 $ADEA ($21.8亿) - 混合键合 $ACLS ($29亿) - 离子注入 $FORM ($64.3亿) - HBM晶圆测试 $ONTO ($106亿) - 封装量测 $AMKR ($131亿) - 先进封装 $RMBS ($135.5亿) - 存储IP $MKSI ($149亿) - 激光子系统 未包含 $TER 和 $KLAC 等巨头，只想聚焦于知名度较低的标的。 还有一些间接受益者如 $SMTC 和 $MTSI。市场肯定尚未完全定价其中部分标的。 如果我漏掉了任何标的请告诉我。 只是想发布这些，以防你们对其中任何一只感兴趣。
英文原文
Memory Supercycle Supply Chain TLDR: US Sleeper HBM4/Memory alpha picks that benefit from $MU and SK/Samsung: $VECO ($2B) -Laser annealing $PLAB ($2.1B) - Lithography photomask $ADEA ($2.18B) - Hybrid bonding $ACLS ($2.9B) - Ion implantation $FORM ($6.43B) - HBM wafer testing $ONTO ($10.6B) - Packaging metrology $AMKR ($13.1B) -Advanced packaging $RMBS ($13.55B) - Memory IP $MKSI ($14.9B) - Laser subsystems Didn't include big players like $TER and $KLAC since just wanted to focus on lesser known ones. There's some indirect beneficiaries too like $SMTC and $MTSI. Markets definitely haven't priced some of these in yet. Let me know if I missed any. Just wanted to publish these in case you find any of them interesting.