2026-02-10 · 供应链分析

揭秘监管与保证金调整如何重创加密市场，看好比特币及持牌机构反弹。

中文翻译

我觉得伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)和机构错过了比特币暴跌的许多原因。华尔街日报(WSJ)和媒体也是如此，这就是为什么散户一无所知。两点原因： 1. “清晰法案(Clarity Act)”加上“天才法案(Genius Act)”的一部分，是银行和政府为了加强美元而对加密货币投下的战术核弹。“安全”目的纯属胡扯。例如（稳定币储备必须与美元/国债保持1:1）。据CEO去年会议透露，Tether持有10万+枚比特币，且2025年是净买入方。随着该法案实施，像Tether这样的主要买家可能会在2026-2027年被迫卖出，因为其约1800亿美元市值的稳定币中持有大量南美农场等流动性差的资产，而其10万+枚比特币具有高流动性。 -> 稳定币收益率如果交易所和金融科技(Fintech)公司无法通过稳定币和其他存款提供收益，这将极具破坏性。巨额流动性将从加密货币中流出。此外，关于美元抵押品、资金流中的银行以及国家CFTC许可证的不同条款，可能会摧毁许多交易所/去中心化交易所(DEX)/金融科技公司的头部，并伤害山寨币。有太多毒丸条款会扼杀任何非银行金融科技/加密货币公司。例如，使银行成为有效的垄断者。但这可以在另一篇帖子中解释。 2. 白银流动性核弹。这是CME和交易所将保证金提高到不合理水平以迫使清算级联，并以“鹰派”美联储主席作为叙事借口。其他风险投资(VC)声称某亚洲公司爆仓并被迫清算来自白银交易的比特币，但这都是多方面的，很可能源于上述两点。主流媒体几乎未报道百分比变化和6次以上的加息。只是责怪美联储主席。这也蔓延到股市中任何高贝塔(high beta)资产，但看起来像是一次孤立暴跌。基本上，没人能报道《清晰法案》是摧毁加密货币的毒丸，因为银行游说，以及CME保证金上调（以迫使白银清算）。如果报道了，贝森特(Bessent)和美国政府就会追究他们。所以散户一无所知，并被煤气灯操纵(gaslit)认为“清晰法案”对加密货币是好事。实际上，美国政府只是在通过游说加强美元+银行垄断，同时在这个过程中摧毁加密货币。（如果我是政府，这很有道理，我只是引用诚实的后果）话虽如此，比特币在当前水平感觉像是免费的地皮，我预计该资产以及申请银行特许状的特定加密货币公司将恢复。

英文原文

I feel like Bernstein and institutions missed a lot on why Bitcoin crashed. Same with WSJ + media, which is why nobody in retail knows. Two things: 1. “Clarity Act” + part of the Genius Act is a tactical nuke on crypto by banks + Gov to strengthen the dollar. “Safety” purposes is just BS. -> For example (Stablecoin reserves must be kept 1:1 with USD/treasuries) Tether has 100k+ Bitcoin (as per CEO last year conference) and were a net buyer in 2025. With the act the main buyers like Tether would probably be a forced sellers 2026-2027 with their $180b-ish stablecoin MC since they have a lot of illiquid assets like farms in South America while their 100k+ Bitcoin is liquid. -> Stablecoin yield This is extremely destructive if exchanges and fintechs were not able to give yield off stablecoin and other deposits. An enormous of liquidity would flow out of crypto. There’s also different clauses around exchange rules regarding USD collateral + banks in flow of funds + national cftc licenses that would likely blow up a lot of exchanges/dexs/fintechs tops and harm altcoins. There’s just way too many poison pill clauses that just kills off any non-bank fintech/crypto company. Eg. Making banks an effective monopoly. But can explain in another post. 2. Silver liquidity nuke. This was CME + exchange margin hikes to unreasonable levels to force liquidation cascades, with a “hawkish” fed chair as a narrative excuse. Other VCs were claiming some Asian firm blew up and were forced to liquidate a bitcoin from the silver trade but it’s all multifaceted, likely stemming from above two. Almost zero mainstream media reporting over changes to percentages and 6+ hikes. Just blaming the fed chair. This also trickled into anything high beta in the stock market but looks like an isolated crash. But basically, nobody can report that the Clarity Act is a poison pill nuking crypto because of bank lobbying and that the CME margin hikes (to force Silver liquidations). Bessent and the Us gov would just go after them if they did lol. So nobody in retail knows and are being gaslit that “Clarity Act” is a good thing for crypto. When in reality US gov is just doing everything to strengthen the dollar + bank monopoly from their lobbying while blowing up crypto in the process. (Which makes sense if I’m the government, I’m just citing the honest repercussions) That being said Bitcoin at these levels feels like free real estate and I expect the asset + crypto companies that applied for bank charters in specific to recover.

在 X 上查看原推 ↗