个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2359 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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把 LPK 视作三倍潜力的第二梯队
@Jos1984482 如果非要给第 4 个名额，我会把 $LPK 放成三倍潜力的 runner up。
英文原文
@Jos1984482 $LPK is runner up for 3x potential if I had to give a 4th spot to a name.
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认为 SOI 已经三倍，后面空间变小
@I_Am_Blacked 我的意思是 $SOI 真的已经涨了 3 倍……所以从这里再涨 3 倍就不太可能了。 也许未来一年再涨 100% 到 150% 还是合理的。
英文原文
@I_Am_Blacked I mean $SOI literally just went up 3x... So less likely to 3x from here. Maybe another 100%-150% over the next year seems plausible.
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认为 AAOI 也许还能继续涨，但三倍速度会慢一些
@ExtensiveRsrch 我在 $AAOI 30 美元附近就点出来了，现在都快 160 了？ 它再像之前那样 3 倍会慢很多，但如果明年它变成美国最大 1.6T + laser fab 产能之一，也不是不可能。
英文原文
@ExtensiveRsrch I called out $AAOI at like $30 and it's like $160 now? Less likely to 3x as fast but next year it's possible if they become largest 1.6T + laser fab capacity in US.
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解释$SIVEF因时区差异在收购后交易
时区差异。美国$SIVEF在太空收购事件发生后进行交易。
英文原文
@BDANDD Timezone difference. US $SIVEF traded after the space acquisition happened.
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痛斥 SLNH 的高稀释
我很生气，因为有人在为了自己的私利，主动坑害散户投资者。 把人忽悠去买一只市值 2 亿美元的 $SLNH 股票，同时伴随 10 亿美元稀释和 5 亿美元的持续 ATM，这种行为简直令人作呕。 如果你在意股权增值，这种做法完全说不通。
英文原文
I get angry when people are actively trying to screw over retail investors for their own personal gain. Absolutely disgusting behavior leading people to buy a $200m MC stock in $SLNH with $1 BILLION DILUTION and a $500,000,000 ACTIVE ATM. Literally makes 0 sense if you care about equity appreciation.
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IQE 与 SLNH 的融资性质不同
@KingDavidvs 你是在开玩笑吗？$IQE 有 $MTSI 帮它偿还 4500 万欧元债务，这在本质上完全不同。 而像 $SLNH 这种没名气的垃圾股，却会在 1.97 亿市值上稀释掉 10 亿美元，并且 5 亿美元的 ATM 只要散户一买就直接往公开市场砸。
英文原文
@KingDavidvs Are you kidding? $IQE having $MTSI to pay off debts with 45M Euros is fundamentally different. From some no name shtco like $SLNH diluting $1B off a $197m MC, with a $500M ATM sold into the open market whenever retail buys.
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IREN 是很差的多头
$IREN 是个糟糕透顶的多头标的。我想不出有谁会真正关心组合净值增长，还愿意买进一个 60 亿美元 ATM、同时高管又给自己发创纪录高额 SBC 的公司。 人们只是因为“有稳定供电”的承诺才买进去，但这已经不算护城河了，那是去年的事了。
英文原文
$IREN is a horrendous long. I can’t imagine anyone that cares about portfolio appreciation to buy into a $6B ATM while executives award themselves record high SBC. People are just buying in to get diluted because of a promise of secured power (which is no longer a moat, it was last year)
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小市值股背后是大额稀释
@saso_equity 哈哈，一只 1.94 亿美元市值的股票 -> 10 亿美元稀释，5 亿美元 ATM https://t.co/bvEAoX0hfv
英文原文
@saso_equity lol $194M MC stock -> $1B dilution, $500M ATM https://t.co/bvEAoX0hfv
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SLNH 也是高稀释标的
$SLNH 跟 $BKKT、$ASST 和 $IREN 一样，都是垃圾股。 它正在通过 5 亿美元 ATM 积极稀释所有人。 真不明白为什么还有人听一个一再把散户组合搞崩的人说话。 我就看着他们从散户接盘侠手里融出 5 亿美元，最后把这些人稀释到 0。 然后再说“我们账上有 5 亿美元，所以市值应该更高”，再用这个 ATM 给自己发 SBC。 它们都绝对是很差的多头。
英文原文
$SLNH is a shtco like $BKKT, $ASST, and $IREN. That is actively diluting everyone with a $500M ATM. Not sure why anyone even listens to a guy who has consistently crashed retail portfolios over and over. I’m going to watch them raise $500M off retail bagholders that get diluted to $0. Then say “we have $500m on our balance sheets, MC should be higher” and award themselves SBC off the ATM. They’re all absolutely terrible longs.
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SIVE 估值仍有上行空间
我认为在 $YSS + Golden Dome 和 Lightmatter 这些信息/新闻出来之后，$SIVE 今天现实中的估值大概应该在 30 亿美元左右。 纳斯达克上市不会从根本上改变它，但会给它更多流动性，用来弥合估值差。 明年冲到 100 亿美元非常有可能。 如果它们愿意通过下游 IP 收购来加速，我认为未来几年内它有一条现实路径去挑战 600 亿美元以上的 $LITE。
英文原文
I think $SIVE realistically should be valued around ~$3B today after information discovery/news around $YSS + Golden Dome and Lightmatter. NASDAQ listing doesn’t change it fundamentally, but gives it more liquidity to bridge that valuation gap. Next year $10B very possible on volume ramp. And I see a realistic path to competing with $60B+ $LITE over next few years if they want to speedrun it with downstream IP acquisitions.
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祝贺持有 SIVE 的收益
@philllyfanatic 恭喜！最后其实都是你自己做的决定，我只是分享了我对 $SIVE 的思路。 希望那能在明年变成 100 万美元以上。
英文原文
@philllyfanatic Congrats! You made all the decisions yourself in the end, I just share my thought process on $SIVE. Hope that turns into $1M+ next year.
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YSS 值得关注
@LNMDad 我现在没有持仓，但 $YSS 很有吸引力，因为我预计国防预算会继续向太空方向扩张。
英文原文
@LNMDad Don’t have open positions but $YSS is very compelling since I expect defense budgets to keep expanding into space
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机构嘴上劝退，实际上在买
@ontrialperiod 我就喜欢这种情况：机构嘴上告诉散户别在 15 亿市值时买。 结果他们自己却一路买了 6.5% 的流通盘。
英文原文
@ontrialperiod I like how institutions tell retail not to buy at $1.5B MC. The they causally bought 6.5% of the float on the way up.
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SIVE 仍被低估
@Berlinergy 我看到 $SIVE 到 2027 年会到 100 亿美元以上。 我不觉得大多数人或市场已经意识到它会映射到多少家超大规模云厂商供应商……而且他们也还没把 IP 收购带来的 TAM 扩张算进去。
英文原文
@Berlinergy I see $SIVE at $10B+ in 2027. Don’t think most people or markets realize how many hyperscaler suppliers they map to yet… also they didn’t factor in TAM expansion with IP acquisition yet either.
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SOI 继续大涨
$SOI 这波已经很快拿到 +200% 的收益了。 如果你听我的，Soitec 今天又涨了 13.62%，对吗，匿名网友？ 我很喜欢这一点：当我最早提出这套 thesis 时，机构还告诉大家别在涨到 +30% 时买。 现在又翻了 2 倍…… 很多 X 账号之所以变火，就是因为大家不再相信“机构分析师评论”了，因为很多人其实是在和散户作对。
英文原文
Well that was a fast +200% gain with $SOI. Soitec up another 13.62% today if you listened anon? I love how when I first put out this thesis, institutions were telling people not to buy at +30%. Now it’s up another 2x… Reason a lot of X accounts get popular is people stopped trusting “institutional analyst commentary” since many work against retail.
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先看财报再判断重估幅度
@lazarusinvests 我觉得温和的 80% 到 100% 重估是有可能的。我并不指望它会复利几百个百分点。 这只是我当前方向性的看法；我还需要等两周后的财报，才能建立更准确的估值模型。
英文原文
@lazarusinvests A modest 80%-100% re-rating seems possible to me. I don't expect this to compound hundreds of percent. This is just my directional thoughts, I'll need to see their earnings in two weeks to create a more accurate valuation model.
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FORM 与 ONTO 都不差
@labubu_trader $FORM 或 $ONTO 都很难出错。整个生态现在都在飞速加速。
英文原文
@labubu_trader Hard to go wrong with $FORM or $ONTO. The whole ecosystem is just accelerating so fast right now.
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AAOI 仍有上行空间
@bartlett_d26245 $AAOI 取决于财报。回到 60 美元时我就说它应该值 110 亿到 130 亿美元，现在终于达到我的预期了。 现在就看执行情况了，但如果他们真的做到成为美国最大的激光代工厂，并拥有 1.6T 产能，一年内轻松就能变成 300 亿美元以上的公司。
英文原文
@bartlett_d26245 $AAOI depends on the earnings. Back at $60 I said it should be valued at $11-$13B, and finally hit that projection. Depends on execution now, but if they deliver becoming largest laser fab + 1.6T capacity America, could easily be a $30B+ company in a year.
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SIVE 仍处早期
@Cassian21828964 如果有什么的话，$SIVE 在 11 亿美元市值下其实非常早期，我认为它今天轻松就该值 20 亿美元以上。 它们站在 CPO / 1.6T 激光的前沿，映射到大量超大规模云厂商，而你现有的激光公司都已经是几百亿美元市值了。 我觉得它就是下一个 $LITE。
英文原文
@Cassian21828964 If anything $SIVE is extremely early at ~$1.1B and I think it should easily be $2B+ today. They’re the bleeding edge of CPO/1.6T lasers mapping to tons of hyperscalers while all your existing laser companies are in the tens of billions. I think it’s the next $LITE.
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SIVE 刚过 10 亿市值
有个有意思的事实，$SIVE 刚刚突破 10 亿美元市值门槛。 所以现在已经有少数美国机构可以买了（基金章程限制） 但绝大多数机构在它登陆纳斯达克之前还是买不了。 顺带一提： 如果最后真的能服务 $JBL、$AMD、$AAPL、$AMZN、$MSFT 等超大规模云供应链，那么 10 亿美元市值对美国机构来说其实只是零钱。 你只要看看 $LWLG，靠一份测试协议都能做到 19 亿美元市值。
英文原文
Fun fact, $SIVE just crossed the $1B MC threshold. So a select few US institutions are able to buy it now (fund mandates) However, the vast vast majority still can’t until they get listed on NASDAQ. Just an FYI: $1B valuations are spare change for institutional investors in US hyperscaler supply chains if they end up powering $JBL, $AMD, $AAPL, $AMZN, $MSFT and others. Just look at $LWLG, $1.9B MC off 1 testing agreement with $TSEM.
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ALRIB 仍在等待定价
关于 $ALRIB 没有新消息，我还是多头。 我只是让市场自己定价，不给目标位。 我倒是觉得，在 3 亿美元市值时，这家给 $MSFT 量子业务和其他量子点项目（比如 QD……以及硅光应用）供货的机器供应商，可能很快会吸引一些机构注意。我们拭目以待。
英文原文
There’s no new news with $ALRIB, I’m still long. I’m just letting markets price it in, not giving any targets. I do think at $300m MC, the machine supplier to $MSFT quantum, and other quantum dot programs like QD… and silicon photonic applications might get some institutional attention soon. We’ll see.
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IBKR 目前强于 HOOD
现在确实是 $IBKR > $HOOD。 我也认为 Robinhood 有机会扭转局面……他们的界面更好，也更偏零售用户。 但就目前执行而言（取消期权的 payment for order flow）以及缺少国际业务，真的糟透了，所以目前显然还是 Interactive Brokers 更好。
英文原文
It’s true $IBKR > $HOOD currently. I do think Robinhood has the potential to turn that around though… they have a better UI and more retail-friendly platform. But just current execution (remove payment order flow for options) and lack of int. offerings is horrendous, so interactive brokers is clearly the better choice atm.
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HOOD 错过国际市场红利
是啊，国际市场本来就是 $HOOD 最明显的增长方向。 但他们错过了亚洲 / 欧盟股票当前这波巨大的上涨，因为他们太专注于预测市场和币上币。 现在还不算太晚，但他们现在的目标到底是什么，真的很奇怪。
英文原文
Yeah, international markets was the most obvious growth vector for $HOOD. Yet they missed out on the current massive run for Asian/EU equities because they focused too heavily on prediction markets and coin listings. Still not too late, but it’s very strange what their goals are now.
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HOOD 产品创新方向跑偏
$HOOD 真正该做的产品创新，本来应该是尽快支持国际股票交易。 结果他们反而加码“预测市场” + “抽奖” + 一堆新烂币上架，让散户乱七八糟地亏钱。 他们还把零售用户输给了 $IBKR，而后者现在已经支持韩国股票交易了。 尤其是受到台湾、韩国、欧洲、日本等国际股票增长的推动。 结果，这个季度 IBKR 新账户数量创了历史新高（这是基于我自己的定性体验）。 我认为 $HOOD 这次财报不及预期，是因为他们搞错了自己真正该帮助散户做什么。 如果他们能让散户大量交易国际股票，赚更多交易费、更多保证金使用、更多平台留存现金和财富增长等等，这才是这个平台的基础。 即便数字资产下行，事情也许本可以更好。
英文原文
Product innovation from $HOOD would have been enabling international stock trading ASAP. Instead they doubled down on "prediction markets" + "raffles" + new crapcoin listings where retail recklessly lose their money. They also lost retail to $IBKR that now enabled Korean stock trading. Especially due to international stock growth from Taiwah, Korea, Europe, Japan. As a result, we saw new IBKR accounts grow to an all time high this quarter (just from qualitative experiences). My opinion is $HOOD missed earnings since they lost track of what they should actually do to help out retail investors. If they had retail investors all spending tons of TX fees from int. Equities trading, likely more margin usage, fees, cash on platform, wealth appreciation, and so on, which is the basis of the platform. Maybe things would have gone better despite digital asset downturn.
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SIVE 不打算卖
我的意思是，$SIVE 是一只我不打算卖出的股票。 光子学的 TAM 对 AI、机器人、消费电子硬件（比如 $AAPL）和太空领域来说都大得离谱…… 而且 Sivers 正好站在下一代架构的最前沿，也是少数几家公开交易的龙头之一，另外两家大概是 $LITE 和 $COHR。 再加上下游 IP 收购，TAM 扩张也会非常大。
英文原文
I mean $SIVE is a stock I don't plan on selling. Photonics TAM is absolutely massive for AI, robotics, consumer hardware (eg. $AAPL), Space... And Sivers happens to be in the bleeding edge for next-gen arhictectures and one of the few publicly traded leaders apart from $LITE and $COHR. TAM expansion is also massive, especially with IP acquisition downstream.
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LPK 是玻璃基板卡点
我真的很喜欢 $LPK。 它在玻璃基板上是一个关键的垄断卡点…… 这些又会用于先进封装和 CPO。 我在 1 月份就把它标成了潜在 10 倍股，但当时觉得还有点早。 不过……现在时间似乎到了？ “大约四年前，我们开始和一家半导体公司合作，开发用于直接 3D 波导成形的量产设备，”Lee 说。 “客户已经装上了 LPKF 的设备。” 也许是三星或 SKC Absolics，因为这件事发生在韩国？ 不过看起来现在动能正在起来，就像财报前的 $AEHR 一样，虽然还没到高量产阶段（2027），但在这个时间点让我觉得很有吸引力。 这是从认证 / 试点 -> 高量产的过渡期。
英文原文
I do really like $LPK. Critical monopoly chokepoint in glass substrates… Which are used for advanced packaging and CPO. I flagged it as a potential 10x back in Jan, but thought it was a bit early. However… time seems right now? "About four years ago, we began collaborating with a semiconductor company to develop mass-production equipment for direct 3D waveguide formation," Lee said. “The customer has already installed LPKF's equipment." Maybe Samsung or SKC Absolics since this was in Korea? Seems like momentum is ramping up now though like $AEHR pre-earnings, not quite high volume (2027), but around this time felt compelling for me. During the transition from qualification/pilot -> high volume.
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增发还卖给了套利基金
@kwongny 这大概和剩下那部分股份出售给可转债套利基金有关。起初我还以为只卖给了 $MTSI，但文件里还有一笔卖给了现有投资者。
英文原文
@kwongny Probably related to the rest of the share offering sold to convertible note arbitrage firms. Originally thought it was just $MTSI but there was another tranche sold to existing investors in the filing.
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LPK 是我最喜欢的名字之一
@snmart $LPK 是我最喜欢的名字之一。我一直很喜欢新赛道里的功能性垄断，比如玻璃基板。
英文原文
@snmart $LPK is one of my favorite names, I tend to be a fan of functional monopolies in new sectors like glass substrates.
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MTSI 进来后长期更看多
@Mellokhai 这是个比较细腻的看法：长期看多，尤其是 $MTSI 作为投资者并帮忙清债之后。Macom 又不是日内交易标的，所以那 4500 万美元其实被锁住了。 如果另一半增发卖给了套利可转债的投资者，短期就偏空。
英文原文
@Mellokhai Nuanced, long term bullish especially with $MTSI as an investor and clearing debt. Macom is not a day trader so that 45M is locked up. Short term bearish if the other half of the offering was sold to investors that arbitrage convertible notes.
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LITE 和 AAOI 的比喻
@offermemoneyXYZ $LITE 是龙虾和最后一道 surf and turf。 $AAOI 是那个也卖最后一道 surf and turf 的蒸汽锅厨师。 但他们又想回去养红龙虾。
英文原文
@offermemoneyXYZ $LITE is a lobster and the final surf and turf. $AAOI is the steamer who also sells the final surf and turf. But they want to go back to farming red lobsters as well.