个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2359 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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财报非常正面，市场反应却看错了
$AAOI 报了财，我看下来其实非常正面，和市场反应完全相反。 和所有 2027 年那种超高斜率前瞻成长公司一样： 大家不该只盯当前财报。 市场漏掉的关键点是： AOI 已经把 800G transceiver 的产能做到每月 10 万台。 而且管理层说，随着产能上线，Q3 开始会有明显更大的增长。 如果真看财务： non-GAAP 毛利率约 29.2% 营收约 1.511 亿美元，Q2 指引 1.8 亿到 1.98 亿美元。 我们已经从 Lumentum 的财报知道，这更多是产能瓶颈，不是需求瓶颈。只要能做出来，都会卖完。 这是一个前瞻成长故事，所以除了这些数字之外，更重要的是财报电话会里对 hyperscaler 需求和产能爬坡的说明。
英文原文
$AAOI reported earnings, it's actually extremely positive so far contrary to market reactions. Like all 2027 hyperbolic forward growth companies: Nobody should care about current financials. Key things market missed was: AOI: hit They hit 100K units/month capacity for 800G transceivers. And: -> "Significant larger growth expected starting in Q3 as capacity comes online" If you do look at financials: It's ~29.2% non GAAP gross margin on ~$151.1M revenue, guiding $180-$198m Q2. We already know from Lumentum earnings that it's more of capacity bottleneck, not a demand one. And anything they make they sell out. It's a forward growth story, so important thing aside from these notes is the earnings call on hyperscaler demand implications and capacity ramp.
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认为 FLNC 因双 hyperscaler 合同会重估
@AorakiTrading 对，如果没有拿到 2 份 hyperscaler 协议，我不会去建仓。 像 $NBIS 那样的一份大型 $MSFT 合同，就足以让这种小型能源公司发生巨大重估。 但他们拿到的是 2 份，不止 1 份。
英文原文
@AorakiTrading Yeah, I wouldn’t have taken positions if they didn’t get 2 hyperscaler agreements. One large $MSFT contract as seen with $NBIS would likely cause a massive rerating for a small energy company like $FLNC. But they had 2, not just 1
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提醒不要满仓，但看好 FLNC 的双 hyperscaler 合同
@Kevin1151268 呃……满仓从来不是最好的主意。 不过好消息是，$FLNC 还有两个新的 hyperscaler 合同，当前的 backlog / 财报里都还没算进去。 能同时给两个 hyperscaler 供货，对这么小的公司来说意义非常大，谁知道合同到底有多大。
英文原文
@Kevin1151268 Uhh… going all in is never the best idea. But on the bright side $FLNC has two new hyperscaler deals not included in their massive backlog / financials yet. Supplying to two different hyperscalers is enormous for a company this size, who knows how big the contracts are.
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AAOI 基本面没变，只是短线波动更大
@Blake_BTFD $AAOI 没什么变化，只是短线价格变得更抖了？ 得习惯 Jane Street 带来的波动。我更多还是关心 1.6T 相关产能爬坡，以及财报里有没有额外的 hyperscaler 数字。 当前收入本身倒不是重点。
英文原文
@Blake_BTFD Nothing changed about $AAOI, just the short prices? Gotta get used to Jane Street adding volatility. Mostly curious about 1.6T related capacity ramp and any extra hyperscaler figures in their earnings. Not so much so about current revenues.
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认为 FLNC 的两份 hyperscaler 合同会压制空头
@pennycheck 对，不太明白为什么很多基金喜欢做空美国能源公司的方向性。 未来几个月内如果这两份 hyperscaler 合同落实，虽然数量还不清楚，但对他们来说大概会很吓人。这样可能会让他们逐步降低 $FLNC 的风险敞口，反而增加买盘。
英文原文
@pennycheck Yeah not sure why many funds like directionality shorting US energy companies... Having 2 hyperscaler deals convert sometime in the next few months with unknown figures is probably scary for them. Would probably make them derisk $FLNC over time, adding to buying pressure.
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在财报后看多 FLNC，认为双 hyperscaler 合同会重估
同意大方向，$FLNC 在财报后按 30 亿美元市值看其实挺有吸引力的。 能在这么小的市值上拿到 2 份直接 hyperscaler 合同，非常罕见。 $56 亿以上 backlog 已经降低了公司增长的风险，还不算新的 hyperscaler backlog，比如 $GOOGL 或 $MSFT。 这些 hyperscaler 合同是框架协议，很可能会在今年 Q3 很快转换，而且还没计入当前数字。 一旦公布，就是重大正面催化，类似半导体公司里的 qualification -> volume ramp。 Citi 分析师说："hyperscaler 订单的可能性会压过这一季度的几乎一切。我们预计公告会带来正面反应"。 我猜它们会在未来 3 个月内公布 hyperscaler 订单，之后大概率会被重估，所以我上了这艘船，把它当成短期催化交易。 如果按软件业务扩张后净利润约 2.88 亿美元（营收 60 亿美元，毛利率 13.0%）计算，2027 年前瞻市盈率大概 11.6 倍。 当前股价比 2 月价格低了 50%，但考虑到 hyperscaler 和 backlog 都在降低风险，我觉得这是一个很好的入场点（NFA）。
英文原文
Agreed high-level directionally, $FLNC compelling at $3B valuation post-earnings after taking a closer look. Very rare to see a US energy player that small get 2 direct Hyperscaler deals... The $5.6B+ backlog derisks the company growth, not including new hyperscalers backlog like $GOOGL or $MSFT. The hyperscaler deals were framework agreements, which are likely to convert "soon" Q3 this year, and aren't included in numbers. Once that's released it's major positive catalyst, similar to qualification -> volume ramp in semi players. Citi Analyst: "The possibility of a hyperscaler order will likely overshadow everything else in the quarter. We expect a positive reaction to the announcement" I'm going to go ahead and guess they'll likely rerated once they announce their hyperscaler orders maybe anytime in the next 3 months so I jumped on the boat as a short term catalyst trade. (not just 1 but 2) Also, if they hit ~$288M net income off gross-margin expansion ($6B revenue, 13.0% gross margins) from their software segment expansion, ~11.6x fwd p/e for 2027. The current stock price is -50% Feb's prices despite hyperscalers + backlog de-risking the company looks like a great entry point to me (NFA).
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继续强调 SIVE 是 CPO 超级周期的优质敞口
@PhotonCap 对，$SIVE 是即将到来的 CPO 超级周期里非常有前景的敞口。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Yeah $SIVE is extremely promising exposure to the CPO supercycle coming up.
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小幅加仓 SKC，但对债务驱动扩产保持谨慎
@TedWilliams1930 只是小幅加仓，做了些摊平。我在它涨 50% 之前就已经有 HB 了。 只是抛出一些想法，SKC 更有争议；如果扩产是靠债务推动、还有旧业务拖累，我会更谨慎。 但它确实是玻璃基板领域的领导者之一。
英文原文
@TedWilliams1930 Very tiny add, cost averaging. I had HB before it jumped 50% though. Just throwing out ideas, SKC is more questionable, I get more uneasy when buildout is fueled with debt + there’s legacy drag. But it is one of the leaders in glass substrates.
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Auros 只是等三星和海力士认证后的放量
@PW8103841574101 Auros 没什么变化，它只是等 Samsung / SK Hynix 认证后开始放量。 我不控制日内波动。
英文原文
@PW8103841574101 Nothing's changed about Auros, it's just waiting for volume ramp after Samsung/SK Hynix qualification. I don't control day-to-day price movements.
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作者认为量子点投资时机尚早，现在投$ALMU会被稀释，不如等规模扩大再说。
不，我的观点是量子点(quantum dot)技术还为时过早，像$ALMU这样的公司。现在投资可能只是在为他们的研发稀释机器提供资金。很可能会像2025年的$POET一样，以"$420M资产负债表"为名义不断进行ATM增发/稀释。我宁愿等到准备批量生产的时候再获得上涨空间。
英文原文
No, my opinion is quantum dot is way too early with names like $ALMU. Investing now likely just funnels their dilution machine for R&D. Likely will end up like 2025 $POET with constant ATMs/dilution for their "$420M balance sheet". Would prefer to just wait it out and get upside when it comes time to volume ramp.
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比较 Auros 和 Towa 的不同风险画像
@2victorspoils 我更喜欢 Auros，因为它们和 SK Hynix / Samsung 的 HBM4 hybrid bonding 路线相关，估值大约 2.8 亿美元。 日本那边的 Towa 就更像是一家无聊但有垄断属性的复利型公司。 这只是我目前发过的其中一些名字，后面我还会分享更多。
英文原文
@2victorspoils I liked Auros for higher upside since they’re part of SK Hynix/Samsung Hbm4 hybrid bonding related roadmaps at ~$280mz Over in Japan, Towa was a bit of a more boring but monopolistic compounder. As the ones I’ve posted about so far. There’s a lot more, I’ll share a few later
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怀疑 POET 上涨是因为空头太多
$POET 是有什么新消息吗…… 还是宇宙就是不喜欢空头？ https://t.co/8rYaWornYf
英文原文
Uh, was there any news with $POET … Or does the universe just not like short sellers? https://t.co/8rYaWornYf
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利盟特姆业务广泛，2028年前满负荷订单，长期看好但短期不确定。
$LITE（利盟特姆）基本上什么都做，CW/EML激光器、光学引擎等。我主要用CPO增长曲线来分析像$SIVE或MSSCorps这种没有前期业务基础的纯概念公司。对于利盟特姆，你需要看整体TAM（总可寻址市场），从150亿增长到1540亿美元，因为他们的目标市场很广泛，包括CPO。他们在2028年前基本上是满负荷订单状态，尤其是与$NVDA的合作，这是最大的指标。我不认为他们会达不到盈利预期。但“达标”基本上是预期内的，所以不知道短期会怎么走，很多取决于期权流向，基本是抛硬币。长期方向上，我认为仍然值得持有，短期怎么走就见仁见智了。
英文原文
$LITE basically does everything, CW/EML lasers, optical engines, etc. I used CPO growth curves mainly for pure play names like $SIVE or MSSCorps that didn't have previous exposure. For Lumentum you want to look at overall TAM which was $15B -> $154B since they're kinda targeting most things, including CPO. They're basically fully booked through 2028, especially with $NVDA that's the biggest indicator. I don't see how they don't beat earning projections. But the "beat" is pretty much expected, so dunno which way it goes short term and a lot of it is option flow/coin flip. Directionally long term it's still a hold in my view, anyone's guess what happens short term.
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看好 Shunsin 和 Foxconn 的组合
@tomhou101 对，我对 Shunsin 很有信心，因为 Foxconn 加上 GS 的 CPO 预测。 我真觉得很多人还不知道这个名字。
英文原文
@tomhou101 Yeah I feel really confident about Shunsin given Foxconn + GS CPO projections. I really think not many ppl know about this name yet.
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认为市场还没把 SIVE 全部定价完
@bigjeffm 我真的不认为市场已经把 $SIVE 全部定价进去了。 这也是为什么它每天都还在涨 10% 到 20%。 事情不会一下子全部完成。
英文原文
@bigjeffm I really don't think markets have priced all of this in yet with $SIVE. Which is why it keeps going up 10-20% a day. It doesn't happen all at once.
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长期极度看多 SIVE，按 GS 报告看是直线向上
@TR7016 对 $SIVEF 长期极度看多。 如果你看 Goldman Sachs 的 CPO 报告，接下来几年基本就是一条巨大的垂直线往上。
英文原文
@TR7016 Extremely bullish on $SIVEF, especially long term. If you look at Goldman Sach’s report on CPO it’s just a massive vertical line up over the next few years.
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认为Sivers处于CPO超级周期初期，类比当初的AXTI和LITE
你听了吗，匿名者？ 我们仍然处于Sivers CPO（共封装光学）超级周期的非常初期阶段，这仍然令人疯狂。 这就是我一直叫出的那些名字最初的感觉，比如$AXTI，过去一年涨幅超过6000%+。 仍然认为Sivers是下一个$LITE。
英文原文
Did you listen anon? It’s still crazy we’re still only at the very beginning of a multi year CPO supercycle with $SIVE. This is what it feels like to be the very first to the names I’ve called out like $AXTI, up 6000%+ over the past year. Still think Sivers is the next $LITE. https://t.co/JdfMd7sNTK
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认为SIVE估值被低估，重点关注管理层对CPO激光产量爬坡指引。
我个人认为 $SIVE 今天应该值 $30亿，明年最终会达到 $100亿以上。 财报其实不重要。我只关心管理层关于激光产量爬坡的指示，用于两个共封装光学(CPO)项目（$JBL 和可能的 $AAPL 硅光子学项目）。
英文原文
@TheGreekEuler I personally think $SIVE should be $3B today and ends up $10B+ next year. Earnings don’t really matter. Just care about indication from management about laser volume ramp for both CPO programs / $JBL and likely $AAPL silicon photonics program.
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Auros是三星/SK海力士供应商，受益于HBM4混合键合计量和薄膜厚度测量两大产品线的量产增长。
所以我确实认为Auros (322310)在韩国是一家市值2.69亿美元、非常有趣的公司。 我从研究中发现，他们是一家相对不知名的三星/SK海力士供应商。 而且他们应该会从HBM4资本支出的混合键合计量(Hybrid Bonding Metrology)中获得高产量增长。 基本上是纯粹专注于两种产品： -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5周期，之前$KLA在红外(IR)计量领域拥有垄断地位。 ---> 现在可能在三星工厂获得资格，下半年产能增长预计。SK海力士在升级到混合键合时也可能获得资格。 关于SK海氨酸的注意事项：我以为会是HBM4e，但显然Trendforce今天报道SK海力士已完成12层混合键合HBM验证，并正在提高量产良率。所以除了三星之外，可能还有一个催化剂。 -> 薄膜厚度测量(Thin-film thickness measurement)。 ---> 现在正在获得资格，与"主要国内芯片制造商"(可能是三星/SK海力士)合作，目标是今年实现批量供应。 免责声明(我持有仓位，不构成投资建议，请自己做尽职调查，这只是我的思考过程) 无论如何，他们在过去十年一直在开发，终于要从多年资格认证中将两种核心产品投入量产，可能是今年下半年。存在风险，例如不进入大批量生产(HVM)，但我个人承担这个风险。 所以我发现这家公司非常有趣，只是想分享一些关于这家公司的想法。
英文原文
So I do think Auros (322310) is very interesting at $269M MC over in Korea. What I've found from research was that they're a relatively unknown Samsung / SK Hynix supplier. And they should high volume ramp from HBM4 capex for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. Note on SK Hynix: I thought it would be HBM4e but apparently Trendforce reported today SK Hynix has completed 12-high hybrid bonding HBM validation and is raising yields for mass production. So maybe there's a catalyst there too aside from Samsung. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (likely Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. Disclosure (I do have positions, NFA, please do your own DD, this is just my thought process) Regardless, they've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two core products from years of qualification likely H2 this year. There are risks involved, such as not proceeding to HVM, but I'm personally taking that risk. So I found this company very interesting, just wanted to publish some thoughts on this company.
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看好SIVE和GFS，因其无晶圆厂模式易扩张，类似NVDA+TSM的成功路径
@Leon8995385220 $SIVE 可能已与 Win Semi（稳懋半导体）锁定产能分配协议以实现规模扩张，并与 $GFS（GlobalFoundries）合作。这就是为什么我对这两只股票都做多，作为无晶圆厂(fabless)模式容易扩张，有点像 $NVDA + $TSM。
英文原文
@Leon8995385220 $SIVE likely locked up allocation agreements with Win Semi to scale. And works with $GFS. Which is why I'm long on them both, easy to scale as fabless, kinda like $NVDA + $TSM.
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认为 SLNH 对股权增值很差
@SingularityRes $SLNH 对股权增值来说简直是垃圾。 我真的不理解为什么有人会觉得他们能把股价做上去，结果却一直在被积极稀释。
英文原文
@SingularityRes $SLNH is utter garbage for equity appreciation. I'm just in disbelief people think they're going to have it appreciate in value when they're getting actively diluted $1 BILLION off a $219m MC.
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批评IREN和SLNH的稀释性融资模式，提醒投资者远离毒性融资结构
$IREN 和 $SLNH 的投资者可能是我在 X 上互动过的最愚蠢的社区。 我从未见过一个社区对一家市值 $219M 的公司如此看涨，该公司正在进行新的 $1,000,000,000 稀释。 以及持续的 $500,000,000 ATM（在市场直接发售）。 然后你看 $IREN，拥有 $6,000,000,000 活跃 ATM，持续随时间向公开市场抛售股票。 也许，一个更好的做法是去做多一只没有毒性融资的股票……这样你才能真正从股权升值中受益，而不是仅仅充当流动性。 真的很难向那些缺乏脑细胞的人解释金融稀释的细微差别。 而偏偏 $SLNH 在提交 $500M ATM 后立即被 $BKKK、$IREN 投资者正面提及，因为他们需要退出流动性。 公司正在直接把股票卖给这些傻瓜。
英文原文
$IREN and $SLNH investors are probably the most braindead communities I've interacted with on X. I've never seen a community so bullish on a $219M MC stock that has a new $1,000,000,000 dilution. And an ongoing $500,000,000 ATM. Then you have $IREN, with $6,000,000,000 active ATM, sold over time into the open market. Maybe, it's a better idea to just go long on a stock without the toxic financing... So you can actually benefit from equity appreciation without just being liquidity? It's just so hard to explain to people the nuances in financial dilution who lack the brain cells. And it just so happens $SLNH gets mentioned positively by $BKKT, $IREN investors the moment after they file a $500M ATM since they need exit liquidity. The company is selling offloading shares directly to these idiots.
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认为 2.5% 稀释只是为纳斯达克上市筹资
@hcnyl0819 这就是为了纳斯达克上市融资的 2.5% 微不足道稀释。 和字面意思的稀释不同，这其实是一个非常看多的事件。
英文原文
@hcnyl0819 This is literally the 2.5% microscopic dilution to get funding for NASDAQ listing for $SIVE. It's a highly bullish event contrary to the word dilution.
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认为被设计出局是短期必然
@Belisapata 短期看，它们在未来一代里大概率会被设计出去。
英文原文
@Belisapata Short term, they’re going to get designed out in future gens.
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嘲讽Bernstein的$35目标价错误，机构唱空却在暗中做多，散户不应盲从机构预测。
我在1月份就说过Bernstein给$INTC定$35目标价简直是个小丑。他们只会乱给目标价。散户恐慌抛售正是他们的有意目的。而其他机构却在悄悄做多（从$SOI就能看出）。现在你读这些报告唯一的原因，就是从中寻找之前没有公开过的细微信息。然后自己推导市值预期。英特尔现在$100，在他们给$35目标价之后。机构不是你的朋友。
英文原文
I called out Bernstein for being a clown when they gave $INTC a $35 price target in Jan. They just slap dumb PTs. Retail panic sells as an intended consequence. While the other institutions silently go long (as seen with $SOI). Only reason you should read these anymore is for any nuances they drop that wasn’t public before. Then derive your own MC projection. Intel is now $100 after their $35 PT. Institutions are not your friends.
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不看好控股公司相对 NAV 的定价
我不喜欢 SK Square。控股公司之所以会折价 NAV，是有原因的，因为没有什么好办法去逼它们把资产做套利。 这也正是 Grayscale 那类持仓和其他控股公司经常被折价的原因。
英文原文
Not a fan of SK Square. Holding companies trade under NAV for a reason since there's no good way to force an arbitrage on their assets. That's exactly why Grayscale holdings and others were traded under NAV of their crypto assets in the past. Better to just long Sk Hynix itself.
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批评Coinbase获批后表态虚伪，指行业被出卖散户遭殃。
$COIN只有在他们获得附带条件的银行宪章批准之后才会说这种废话。 看到整个行业在本届政府手下被出卖，真的很可悲。 你们就享受那0.05%的活期存款利率吧，而传统银行却能赚取4%的利差，狠狠地薅每个美国散户的羊毛。 本来还以为我们终于能看到一些积极的改变。
英文原文
$COIN only says this crap after they got their conditional banking charter approved. Pretty sad to see the entire industry get sold out under this administration. Enjoy your .05% checking account interest while traditional banks profit a 4% spread shafting every day US retail. Had hopes we’d actually see some positive change.
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认为 RDDT 在大盘软件社媒里最有吸引力
@Rumbourbon23 在更大市值的软件 / 社交媒体板块里，没有什么比 $RDDT 更有吸引力了。
英文原文
@Rumbourbon23 There's nothing more compelling in the larger cap software/social media bucket than $RDDT
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指出SIVEF尚未被机构发现
$SIVEF目前还未被机构投资者发现。
英文原文
@SaxoDel95616 $SIVEF is undiscovered to institutions.
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认为 Shunsin 也会三倍，但节奏更慢
@yuntungshieh 我也预计 Shunsin 会涨 3 倍，只是时间会慢一些。
英文原文
@yuntungshieh Shunsin I expect to 3x as well, just on a slower timeframe.