个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2504 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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好吧……周末再随便想一些关于 $XFAB 的东西。 我仍然觉得它可能成为下一个 $TSEM，只是现在还处在早期阶段，市值约14亿美元？ 他们有点跳过了当前一代技术（$TSEM 正在从中获得出货量），转而竞争2027年下半年 CPO 放量拐点。$ASX 文件提到 Xfab（也就是 photonixFAB）专注于 CPO。 他们正在搭建某种像黑魔法一样的 MTP（转移印刷）激光架构，并结合 TFLN 等其他东西。 基本上这是下一代集成 IP。当然，他们的良率仍然落后。 但 $NVDA 正在评估它用于收发器/交换机，看它能否实现批量爬坡。而 $NOK 负责制定这些交换机/网络设备的规格和组装（顺便说一句，英伟达也投资了诺基亚，和这些交换机/网络有关）。 如果他们的 MTP 供应链跑通，比如 Smart Photonics 提供激光器、欧洲厂商负责组装，那么它基本上会随着 $NVDA 一起放量，就像 Nvidia 当初为什么和 $TSEM 签长期协议一样。 下行风险呢？ 它已经低于重置账面价值，当然还能更低，但通常会有一个限度。 未来几个月也许会有更多 CHIPS Act 2 补贴。如果 CPO 不顺利，还有 SiC（同比增长152%，SiC 晶圆出货同比增长195%）和 GaN 功率半导体的上行空间。 欧洲人或大模型会说：“哦，评估并不代表未来合同！” 但这次有点不同，因为欧盟站在这项努力背后，$XFAB 也涉及主权光子供应链。 这不是典型的公司与超大云厂商评估，因为 $NVDA 也想对欧洲监管者保持友好。如果英伟达只留在美国/台湾/中国，欧洲大概会很生气。 所以，如果他们能把这种 MTP 黑魔法做成并实现量产，几乎可以确定 Nvidia/Nokia 会让这家小小的14亿美元硅光子代工厂参与放量，至少也会给他们一些较小合同。 从时间线看，也许只是早了几个月，因为放量在2027年下半年/2028年上半年，这刚好和 CPO 扩产时间线一致。 也可能只是市场还没搞懂，因为他们把项目命名成 photonixfab 这种奇怪名字？ 如果叫 XFAB Photonics 可能会更好，让机构和筛选器在寻找 CPO 硅光子代工厂时更容易把点连起来。 汽车业务中期也应该走出低谷，并受自动驾驶加速。台积电董事长昨天评论称，AI 汽车和机器人一样是台积电的增长向量。所以它的核心业务中期也应该重新加速。 显然，市场和欧洲投资者想看到的是“英伟达签署20亿美元以上合同，XFab 2027年放量！” 但到那时，它就会是一家90亿美元以上的公司，你也就错过所有上行空间了。尤其是现在分析师和机构对这些放量预期几乎是盲的。 我通常不投资仍在评估阶段的公司，但这次看起来受到欧盟主权和政府支持显著去风险；如果 IP 做得出来，还有 Nvidia 和 Nokia 带来出货量。 我认为市场很可能漏掉了什么……它作为欧洲 CPO 敞口的长期上行价值，几乎还没有被定价。
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Okay... just some more weekend shower thoughts about $XFAB. I still feel like it could be the next $TSEM, just early stage at a $1.4B MC? They kinda leapfrogged current gens (which $TSEM are getting volume from) to compete for H2 2027 CPO scale up inflection point ($ASX docs cite Xfab (aka. photonixFAB) as focusing on CPO) By building out some black magic MTP (transfer printing) architecture for lasers w/ other stuff like TFLN. Basically next-gen integration IP, they're still behind on yields, sure. But $NVDA evaluating it for transceivers/switches to see if it can volume ramp. That $NOK sets the specifications/assembly for. (nvidia invested in nokia for this these switches/networking too btw). And if their MTP supply chain works... (eg. with Smartphotonics providing lasers, EU players doing assembly). It basically volume ramps with $NVDA just like why Nvidia signed long term agreements with $TSEM? Downside risk? Already below replacement book value, can always go lower yeah, but typically to a certain point. Maybe more CHIPS act subsidies next few months from chips act 2. If it doesn't go well there's SiC (152% Y/Y Growth, 195% Y/Y SiC wafer shipment growth)/GaN power semi upside. Europeans /LLMs will say "oh evaluations doesn't mean it's a future contract!". This is kinda different since the European Union is behind this effort and $XFAB for soverign photonic supply chains. Not your typical company + hyperscaler evaluation, since $NVDA wants to be nice to Europe's regulators. They'd prob be pissed if nvidia just stayed in US/Taiwan/China. So if they can make this MTP black magic work with mass production, feels almost for sure nvidia/nokia volume ramp on some tiny $1.4B silicon photonics foundry or at least throw them a bone with smaller contracts. In terms of timelines, maybe just a months early since it volume ramps H2 2027/H1 2028 (which happens to be in line with CPO scale up timelines)... Or just unknown because they named their project something stupid like photonixfab? Like XFAB Photonics would have been better? so institutions/screeners can connect the dots when looking at CPO silicon photonic foundry players? Automotive should also coming out of a slump medium term, sped up by self-driving (TSM Chairmain comments yesterday said ai automotive was TSM's growth vector alongside robotics). So their core business also should pick up speed too medium term. Obviously markets/europeans want a "Nvidia signs $2B+ contract, XFab volume ramping 2027!" But by then it will be a $9B+ company and you miss out on all the upside. And especially since everyone analyst/institution is blind to volume expectations for these.... Normally don't invest in companies in evaluation stages, but this just seems very de-risked by EU sovereignty + Gov backing, and you have Nvidia + Nokia there for volumes if they can make the IP work. I think markets are probably missing something here... there's almost 0 value being assigned to being CPO exposure in Europe as their long term upside.
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称美国机构正在买入SIVE流通盘。
回复 @tw_crypto_：与此同时，在瑞典那边……美国机构正在买走流通盘。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ Meanwhile over in Sweden… while US institutions are buying up the float https://t.co/ezOFC0rnqG
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警告瑞典对冲基金不要做空SIVE的光子学地位。
回复 @Camilogicly：这正是我一直告诉瑞典对冲基金不要做空 $SIVE 的原因。 因为对美国机构和超大云厂商来说，买下整个 Sivers 流通盘只是零钱。 尤其考虑到它们在光子学中的作用。
英文原文
@Camilogicly Exactly why I keep telling Swedish hedge funds not to go short on $SIVE. Since buying the entire Sivers float is spare change to US institutions and hyperscalers. Especially given their role in photonics.
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称SIVE股权变化主要来自美国机构买入。
回复 @fodacyjosh：要么是摩根大通自己的资产管理部门，要么是对冲基金。 无论哪种，本质上主要都是美国机构买入，而且不知何时在一个月内从0.4%升到5%以上。
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@fodacyjosh It’s either JP Morgan’s own asset management or hedge funds. Either way, it’s all primarily all US institutional buying and whenever it was went from .4% to 5%+ in a month.
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认为美国机构在试图买入SIVE。
回复 @SEONHYE1101：如果意思是美国机构正在试图买入 $SIVE，那是的。 但如果意思是我不确定摩根大通如何买下 $SIVE 这家公司5%以上，那不是。 也许是足够多散户投降，把股票转给了机构。
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@SEONHYE1101 Yes in the sense that US institutions are trying to buy up $SIVE. No in the sense that I’m not sure how JP Morgan to buy 5%+ of $SIVE as a company. Maybe enough retail investors capitulated and transferred their shares to institutions.
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认为摩根大通大举买入证明SIVE对CPO重要。
唉。 我一直告诉散户和瑞典对冲基金，$SIVE 对 CPO 有多重要，但人们不听。 足够多的散户持有人被洗出去了，现在摩根大通成功买入了 Sivers 的大量股份（纯机构）。 摩根大通上个月持股还只有0.4%……
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Sigh. I keep telling retail + Swedish Hedge Funds how important $SIVE is to CPO, but people don’t listen. Enough retail holders got shaken off, and now JP Morgan managed to buy up a massive stake in Sivers (purely institutional). JP Morgan went from .4% ownership last month https://t.co/7f3sYuoSmk
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提出精材作为台积电封测/CPO相关潜在机会。
精材(3374)看起来也是一个有趣想法（台积电封装/测试子公司）。 市值约21.8亿美元。 $TSM 的 COUPE 将在今年下半年，也就是2026年下半年开始量产。而且……他们计划“积极通过子公司精材追求 CPO 机会”。 这非常……
英文原文
Xintec (3374) also looks like an interesting idea (TSMC packaging/test subsidary). MC is at ~ $2.18B. $TSM COUPE mass production starts this half, H2 2026. and... they have plans for "Aggressively pursuing CPO opportunities with subsidiaries Xintec". This is just very https://t.co/e3NXsmQd6v
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$SIVE 是我在 AAOI 之后最喜欢的 CPO / 光子学股票。 部分原因是它是瑞典公司，那边还有很多“喜剧演员”提供娱乐。 今天一家新的非技术型对冲基金 Protean Funds（可能在做空）上节目，说 $SIVE 的 CPO 应用是想象出来的。 这刚好发生在 $GFS 把 $SIVE 设为其参考激光器之后。 给新读者一点背景：瑞典很多人只会看过去12个月收入，不理解前瞻增长概念。 他们也不理解，目前根本还没有任何 CPO 应用真正大规模放量。 所以瑞典对冲基金持续做空，像 Colosseum / Origo 这类基金已经严重亏损。 但对技术读者来说，从2026年下半年到2028年，这个市场会在一年半内从接近0增长到910亿美元 TAM（我们正进入下半年）。 整体 TAM 会达到1410亿美元，也是在一年半内增长10倍以上，而 $SIVE 还通过 $JBL 和其他未披露可插拔玩家切入了可插拔市场。 在 $SIVE 史上最大拐点到来前做空，对瑞典本地机构来说大概率不会有好结果。 放量只是时间问题。
英文原文
$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser. (Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth) Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all. So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater). But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now). Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too. Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE. Just a matter of time before volume ramps.
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称AAOI是当前最喜欢的美国多头并提到JBL/SIVE 1.6T机会。
回复 @DanyloAkymenko：$AAOI 是我目前最喜欢的美国多头。 我个人最近在它跌到150美元，甚至170美元时都会加仓摊高成本。 我认为一旦 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 在2027年上半年与 $SIVE 一起量产，$JBL 应该会表现很好。今天也谈到了 $RDDT。 如果你认为 $MRVL 能到1万亿美元……
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@DanyloAkymenko $AAOI is my current favorite US long. I personally cost average recently whenever it dips to $150, or even $170. $JBL should preform really well once they’re 1.6T LRO goes mass production with $SIVE h1 2027 imo. Also talked about $RDDT today. $MRVL if you think it hits $1T
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重申XFAB是去风险的2027/2028硅光子前商业化多头。
回复 @Jornka329996：你是嗨了吗？我这周刚写过 $XFAB。 它与 $NVDA 和 $NOK 相关的硅光子平台会在2027年下半年/2028年放量。 我认为它是一个已经大幅去风险、商业化前的多头机会，看起来像下一个 $TSEM，并且还有 SiC/GaN 上行空间。 只是需要时间。
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@Jornka329996 Are you high, I posted about $XFAB this week. Their silicon photonics platform with $NVDA and $NOK scales h2 2027 / 2028. I think it’s a heavily derisked precommercial long that looks like the next $TSEM. With upside from SiC/GaN. Just needs time.
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回复 @dean16889：（披露：我没有持有绿的谐波股票，我只是免费发布自己的研究。） 对绿的谐波来说，它占每一台被开发出来的人形机器人的相当一部分价值。 智元机器人和宇树最近才开始放量，Figure 也刚达到1万台……
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@dean16889 (disclosure: I don't own shares of Leaderdrive, I'm just publishing my research for free). For LeaderDrive, it's a material percentage of every humanoid that gets developed. AGIBot and Unitree has only started to scale up recently, and figures has just reached 10k units https://t.co/SeZtmjqQjV
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回复 @solsniper330：绿的谐波（688017）打入了所有主流人形机器人开发商的供应链，所以我非常看好这家公司，哪怕我并没有它的持仓。
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@solsniper330 绿的谐波（688017）打入了所有主流人形机器人开发商的供应链，所以我非常看好这家公司，哪怕我并没有它的持仓 https://t.co/NgDq3Bm6Ya
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专门写给我的中文读者： 绿的谐波（LeaderDrive，688017，577.3亿人民币）是我在布局人形机器人赛道时最青睐的中国上市标的。 他们的业务涵盖： 谐波减速器（据称占有超过60%的国内市场份额，以及1800多家全球客户） 人形机器人旋转关节减速器 直线执行器 电机/关节，以及许多其他核心零部件。
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专门写给我的中文读者： 绿的谐波（LeaderDrive，688017，577.3亿人民币）是我在布局人形机器人赛道时最青睐的中国上市标的。 他们的业务涵盖： 谐波减速器（据称占有超过60%的国内市场份额，以及1800多家全球客户） 人形机器人旋转关节减速器 直线执行器 电机/关节，以及许多其他核心零部件。 https://t.co/pXFr21BZOd
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称AAOI是其从28美元以来持续加仓的标的。
$AAOI 是我从28美元以来一直持续加仓的名字之一。 只是一些随意想法……如果他们执行到位，我感觉翻倍或三倍几乎就在眼前？ 800G/1.6T 光收发器需求实在太多了…… 而这家公司正在瞄准最大的……
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$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28. Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute? There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers… Then this company is targeting the largest https://t.co/E3E6HtlHSp
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看好RDDT的收入增长、自由现金流和网络效应护城河。
$RDDT 快把我逼疯了。 > 业绩大幅超预期 > 因为太赚钱，持续产生自由现金流(FCF) > 收入同比增长69% > 通过网络效应，拥有抵御 AI vibe coding 的最大护城河 > 毛利率91.5% 结果几个月都横着不动。很高兴看到它开始获得更多关注。
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$RDDT was driving me insane. > massive earnings beat > just printing FCF since they’re too profitable > 69% Y/Y revenue growth. > biggest moat against AI vibe coding from network effect > 91.5% gross margin. Was just flat for months. Glad to see it getting more attention. https://t.co/umUxYdXkz7
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坚定持有SIVE，认为本地投资者不理解前瞻增长。
回复 @user637826：我对自己的 $SIVE 论点兑现很有信心，一股都不会卖。 我曾在6瑞典克朗时试图告诉瑞典本地人，他们这家前沿公司有多有吸引力，但他们因为不理解前瞻增长这个概念，把股票都转给了美国散户。
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@user637826 I’m confident in my $SIVE thesis playing out and am not selling a single share. I tried to tell Swedish locals back at 6 SEK how compelling their frontier company was but they all transferred their shares to US retail since they couldn’t understand the concept of forward
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反驳关于SIVE内部人卖股的空头信息。
回复 @Raccoononomics：那是空头编造的信息。CEO 最近在公开市场买入了股票。 无线部门董事几个月前卖股，对光子学放量没有任何影响。 我大概就在那段时间买下了他所有的股票，哈哈。
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@Raccoononomics That’s fabricated information from short sellers. The CEO bought shares on the open market recently. Having the director of the wireless department sell shares months ago has no effect on the photonics scale up. I probably bought all his shares around the time lol
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称短线买入IBIT和ETHA，但加密下跌伤害HOOD/COIN等。
回复 @RockyKh49376975：我今天最后在 6.2万美元 / 1750美元价位买了 $IBIT 和 $ETHA。 只是做波段交易，不是长期持有。 但价格下跌会伤害 $HOOD / $COIN 和其他公司。
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@RockyKh49376975 I ended up buying $IBIT and $ETHA today at $62K / $1.75K. Just swing trading those, not long term holding. But prices dropping hurts $HOOD / $COIN and the others.
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批评银行游说的监管法案压制加密创新。
好吧，看起来 $COIN、$HOOD、$CRCL 等又到了一年里的那个时候。 如果他们试图强推银行游说的 Clarity Act 法案，禁止任何形式的创新或与银行竞争，那所谓“友好政府”和“战略储备”也就不过如此了……
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Well, looks like it’s that time of the year again for $COIN, $HOOD, $CRCL and co. So much for a “friendly administration” and “strategic reserve” if they’re trying to ram through Bank Lobbied Clarity Act bills… To ban any form of innovation or competition against banks, with https://t.co/zypbwwqt3x
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虽未持有联发科，但预计未来两年大幅跑赢。
回复 @TheRealTP：我没有持有联发科，但我预计它未来两年会大幅跑赢。
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@TheRealTP I don't own MediaTek, but I expect them to heavily outperform next two years. https://t.co/TbKNbOZLH2
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对比NASDAQ与欧股上市估值，认为XFAB被低估。
NASDAQ 和欧洲上市之间的差异： $POET：24亿美元市值 -> 封装 Sivers 激光器 -> 一个5000万美元预生产合同换认股权证 > $XFAB：17亿美元市值 -> SiC/GaN/MEMS/硅光子代工厂，受到 EU CHIPS Act 和 US CHIPS Act PMT 支持 -> 低于重置市净率价值 -> ……
英文原文
The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing: $POET: $2.4B MC -> Packages Sivers lasers -> One $50m pre-production contract for warrants > $XFAB: $1.7B MC ->SiC/GaN/MEMS/Silicon Photonics Foundry backed with EU CHIPS ACT, US CHIPS ACT PMT -> Below replacement P/B value ->
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没预期英伟达今年入股Marvell，但看好其ASIC/连接收入机会。
回复 @WEB3_furture：好文章！我其实没想到 $NVDA 今年会与 $MRVL 合作并入股。 但无论如何，我本来就预计 Marvell 会因为即将到来的 ASIC/连接收入机会而成为一个有吸引力的想法。
英文原文
@WEB3_furture Great article! I actually didn't expect $NVDA to partner and take a stake in $MRVL this year. But I expected Marvell to be a compelling idea anyway from their upcoming ASIC/connectivity revenue opportunites.
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认为SIVE空头可能加仓，但会随更多公告被击垮。
回复 @Jayden11129225：可能有活跃空头正在加倍做空 $SIVE。我预计他们随着时间会被打爆。 尤其是在更多公告出来后。 如果再有一个类似 $JBL 的惊喜公告，比如和 Innolight 这样的人合作，会很有意思。 因为 Sivers 正在共同开发/认证……
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@Jayden11129225 There's active short sellers probably doubling down on $SIVE. I'd expect them to get wrecked over time. Especially on more announcements. One more surprise $JBL type announcement with someone like Innolight would be interesting. Since Sivers is co-developing/qualifying with
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认为SIVE若当前估值60-80亿美元也不意外，纳斯达克上市可缩小折价。
回复 @MindQuest42：如果 $SIVE 今天以60-80亿美元估值交易，我不会惊讶。 话虽如此，它仍然在瑞典交易所上市，但纳斯达克上市应该会缩小这个差距。
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@MindQuest42 If $SIVE were trading at $6-8B valuations today, I wouldn't be surprised. That being said, its still on a Swedish exchange, but NASDAQ listing should close the gap.
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称某标的高风险，关注能否从认证进入SK海力士/三星放量。
回复 @venuvg18：我前几天摊了成本，这个风险更高，是看它们能否从认证阶段转向与 SK 海力士 / 三星的放量。 我在看下半年会发生什么。
英文原文
@venuvg18 I cost averaged the other day, it’s more high risk to see if they can shift from qualification to volume ramp with SK Hynix / Samsung. I’m seeing what happens h2
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指出精材3374可能是未知的TSM COUPE供应商。
回复 @RockyKh49376975：可能就是 Xintec（3374），它算是一个不太为人所知的 $TSM COUPE 供应商。 而且它刚好也由台积电持有。
英文原文
@RockyKh49376975 Probably just Xintech (3374) which is kinda the unknown $TSM COUPE supplier. They happen to be owned by TSMC too.
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看好Foci并称MSScorp是检测垄断彩票票。
回复 @MattLay：老实说，我对那两个还没再涨50%非常惊讶。 我觉得原因是 CPO 还没有任何东西真正放量，所以没有反映在它们资产负债表里。 但我对 Foci 信念相当高，MSScorp 则像是一张检测垄断彩票票。
英文原文
@MattLay Honestly extremely surprised by those two, not going up another 50% yet. I think it’s because nothing CPO has scaled up yet so it’s not reflected in their balance sheets. But I have pretty high conviction in Foci, MSScorp is a lottery ticket for inspection monopoly.
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提出精材3374作为台积电COUPE封测子公司机会。
$TSM COUPE 供应商想法： 另一个是我有敞口的 Xintec（3374）。 这是 $TSM 的测试子公司，目前股价255，市值约21亿美元。 最大的疑问是它们是否和 COUPE 有关联……否则我不会建仓。 但最近有报告确认了台积电的垂直整合计划： “台积电正在建立硅光子帝国，积极通过子公司 Xintec 和 VisEra 寻求共封装光学(CPO)机会，据未具名供应链消息人士称…… 台积电预计将在5月14日（周四）于台湾新竹技术论坛上重点谈其硅光子计划，包括 COUPE 平台。” 所以如果它们是“积极追求机会”，对我来说基本就盖棺定论了。 无论如何，由于 $TSM 持有它，这个多头已经去风险。COUPE 带来上行？ 我个人觉得这是一个有趣想法。
英文原文
$TSM COUPE supplier idea: Another is Xintech (3374) that I have exposure to. This is $TSM’s testing subsidiary, currently trading at 255 ~$2.1B MC. Biggest wonder was if they were linked to COUPE… otherwise I wouldn’t take positions. But some report recently confirmed TSM’s vertical integration plans: “TSMC is building a Silicon Photonics empire, aggressively pursuing Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) opportunities with subsidiaries **Xintec** and VisEra citing unnamed supply chain sources… TSMC is expected to talk up its SiPho plans, including its COUPE platform May 14 (Thursday) at its Technology Symposium in Hsinchu, Taiwan.” So that kinda seals the deal for me if they’re “aggressively pursuit opportunities”. Derisked long anyway given $TSM owns it. Upside from COUPE? Thought it was an interesting idea personally.
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类比LITE光学浪潮，认为SIVE也可从30亿走向750亿。
$LITE 在第一波光学浪潮中，靠 EML 和可插拔从30亿美元涨到750亿美元，用了2年时间。 我的论点是，$SIVE 可以靠 CPO/可插拔和 CW 从30亿美元做到同样的事。 Sivers + GFS 硅光子参考激光器新闻，加上今天上涨54%。 这只是路上的一步。
英文原文
$LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables. My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW. Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today. Is just one step of the way. https://t.co/Hfth69ZnYm
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认为XFAB像早期TSEM，具备Nvidia/Nokia验证和政府补贴。
说实话，$XFAB 有点让我想起早期的 $TSEM。 只是市值低于20亿美元。 你基本上很少能找到一家低于20亿美元的公司，拥有 $NVDA 和 $NOK 正在主动验证其商业化前硅光子代工平台（photonixFAB）。 同时还能获得 CHIPS Act / 政府补贴来补贴资本开支。 还在引领……
英文原文
Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM. Just sub <$2B MC. You basically never find a company with $NVDA and $NOK actively validating your pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry… (photonixFAB) While getting CHIPS act/Gov grants to subsidize capex. While leading the