个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2501 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
XFAB获上调评级，但博主认为目标价严重低估其潜力。
$XFAB 被伯恩斯坦 (Bernstein) 上调至“跑赢大盘”，目标价从 5 欧元升至 12.8 欧元。好吧，鉴于之前在铠侠 (Kioxia) 和英特尔 (Intel) 上的表现，我原谅你了伯恩斯坦。但我仍然认为这仅仅是针对汽车复苏、碳化硅 (SiC)/功率半导体 (power semi) 产能爬坡的反应性目标价。如果市场计入 https://t.co/c8WgJ4jVRQ 的影响，该目标价严重低估了潜力……
英文原文
$XFAB upgraded to outperform with a PT of €12.8 by Bernstein, up from €5. Okay I forgive you Bernstein for Kioxia and Intel. I still think that’s just reactive PTs off automotive recovery, SiC/power semi ramp up. And undershooting potential a lot… If markets price in the https://t.co/c8WgJ4jVRQ
-
OE Solutions 估值低且IP稀缺，是理想的收购标的。
我认为 OE Solutions ($138080.KQ) 作为大型下游玩家收购目标最合理。鉴于其稀缺的 EML/CW 激光器 IP 目前市值仅约 2.15 亿美元，估值荒谬。Source Photonics 或苏州东山精密类型的收购可能会增加更多价值。
英文原文
I actually think OE Solutions ($138080.KQ ) makes the most sense as an acquisition target by a large downstream player. Since it’s now trading at a stupid ~$215M MC for scarce EML/CW laser IP. A Source Photonics / Suzhou Dongshan Precision type acquisition might add a lot more
-
批评持有IREN导致错过AI及NBIS等板块行情
我好奇错过人工智能超级周期（AI Supercycle）的行情是什么感觉…… 伴随着光子学（Photonics）、存储（Memory）， 甚至像 $NBIS 这样的新云（Neoclouds）。 因为你正忙着死扛（Bagholding）那些看似无尽的 $60 亿活跃提款机（Active ATMs）$IREN。
英文原文
I wonder how it feels to miss out on the AI supercycle run… With photonics, memory, and even Neoclouds like $NBIS. Because you’re busy bagholding into the endless $6,000,000,000 active ATMs with $IREN. https://t.co/AFEr84Dezd
-
AAOI若达预期将现800%增长，看好其需求指数级上升。
这由你决定。 但只是抛砖引玉： 如果 $AAOI 达到预期，那将是超过 800% 的同比增长，年化营收 56 亿美元，对应 128 亿美元市值。 我猜测 4.71 亿美元/月的收入会随着需求在 2028 年前呈指数级增长而持续上升。 我预计
英文原文
That’s for you to decide. But just throwing this out there: If $AAOI hits projections, that’s over 800%+ Y/Y growth, and $5.6B revenue annualized off $12.8B MC. My guess is that the $471m/month will keep going up as demand seems to scale exponentially into 2028. I’d expect
-
LPK 玻璃基板设备具垄断优势，预计量产爬坡后市值可达 30-50 亿。
关于 $LPK：如果让我猜，当它们全面量产爬坡时，市值达到 30 亿至 50 亿美元似乎是合理的。 对我来说，这感觉更具非对称性，因为这只是一个等待游戏，而且它们已经拥有玻璃基板的客户。 小型设备供应商的瓶颈通常受限于总可寻址市场 (TAM)，除非你是 ASML 或像 KLAC 那样拥有多个瓶颈，否则很难达到 200 亿美元以上。 在全面量产爬坡前夕，很少有像这样占主导地位的“垄断者”： 也许你有类似： - Aixtron (MOCVD) ~80 亿美元 - Towa (压缩键合) ~20 亿美元 - Techwing (内存处理器/立方探针) ~15 亿美元 - MSScorps (CPO 检测)，但处于量产前阶段。8.5 亿美元 - Riber (量子分子束外延)，非常早期的量产前阶段 ~3.5 亿美元 然后是 LPK 激光用于玻璃核心基板（即将量产），市值约 7.3 亿美元，从主题上讲应该比内存享有更多溢价。（例如，主要先进封装转变，CPO 相关等）。 我知道很多晦涩的化学垄断者，但由于其物料清单 (BOM) 远低于设备，因此没有受到太多关注。 但对于 LPK 你有： 例如：“全球主要玩家中 80% 的客户选择了 LPKF 设备”。 在玻璃核心量产中，LIDE 市场份额目标为 70%，应该非常重要。（披露：持有，上述列出的名称中除了 Techwing/Aixtron 外，NFI）。 这只是如果你跟随 $AEHR 在约 35 亿美元时的路径： - <5 亿美元：“哦，他们没有客户！” --->（可能在这里的中间某处）。 - <15 亿美元：“也许很快就会有量！” - 30 亿美元及以上：“看起来他们开始全面量产爬坡了。” 这只是我个人经验中关于瓶颈设备供应商周期的一课。
英文原文
As for $LPK: Maybe $3B-$5B seems reasonable when they fully volume ramp if I had to guess. Feels more asymmetrical to me personally since it's just a waiting game and they have the customers for glass substrates. Small machine supplier chokepoints usually cap out from TAM though and don't go to $20B+ unless you're ASML or hold many chokepoints like KLAC. Not many dominant "monopolies" like these out there right before volume ramp this small: Maybe you have stuff like: - Aixtron (MOCVD) ~$8B - Towa (compression bonding) ~$2B - Techwing (memory handler/cube probes) ~$1.5B - MSScorps (CPO inspection), but pre-ramp. $850M - Riber (quantum MBE), very pre-ramp ~$350M Then LPK Laser for glass core substrates (about to ramp) at ~$730M, which thematically should have more premiums than memory. (eg. major advanced packaging shift, CPO adjacent, etc). Lot of obscure chemical monopolies I know of, but those don't get as much attention cause BOM is much lower than equipment. But for lpk you have: eg. “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment”. 70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp, should be very material. (disclosure: own, the listed names above aside from techwing/aixtron, NFI). Just kinda the path they go if you follow $AEHR at ~$3.5B now: - <$500m: "Oh they have no customers!" ---> (probably somewhere in the middle here). - < $1.5B: "Maybe volume comes soon!" - $3B+ onward: "Looks like they're starting to volume ramp. Just a lesson for the cycle of the chokepoint machine suppliers from my personal experiences.
-
WUS TW 连续涨停，因持有巨额未估值资产且受激进投资者施压，潜力巨大。
哇，WUS TW 连续三个涨停。很遗憾我没有加大仓位。WUS TW 是我 1 个 NAV 套利 + 独立增长交易。如果需要背景：WUS TW 是一家市值约 11.2 亿美元的 PCB 玩家，拥有 AI 数据中心增长。他们持有的 WUS Kunshan 股权价值 47.9 亿美元（占 420.4 亿的 11.4%）。所以基本上他们是一家独立增长的 11 亿美元 PCB 公司，持有另一家看起来即将在港股 IPO 的公司约 47.9 亿美元的股权。而且，Palliser（与 Ajinomoto 和 Toto 一起）的成功激进投资者正在施压他们削减部分持仓。这似乎是一个相当疯狂的脱节，我认为这里有很大的潜力。
英文原文
Wow, 3 limit ups in a row with WUS TW. Pretty sad I didn't take larger positions. WUS TW is 1 my 2 NAV arbitrage + independent growth trades. If you want context: WUS TW is a ~$1.12B PCB player with AI DC growth. Their stake in WUS Kunshan is $4.79B (11.4% of 42.04 billion) So basically they're a $1.1B PCB player growing independently, sitting on ~$4.79B worth of another company that looks to IPOed on Hong Kong markets soon. And a successful activist investor in Palliser (with Ajinomoto and Toto), is pressuring them to trim some holdings along with a few others. Seems like a pretty insane disconnect, and I think there's a lot of potential here.
-
澄清误解，论证SIVE在CPO及可插拔光模块中的核心地位，强烈看多。
这是一个误解： $SIVE 是下一代架构的激光器供应商，不仅仅局限于共封装光学(CPO)的规模扩展(scale up)。 可插拔(Pluggable)、规模扩展(scale out) CPO、规模扩展(scale up) CPO、近封装光学(NPO)等。 - Sivers 和 $JBL 开启了“神模式”，开发了采用连续波(CW)激光器的 1.6T 光模块。 有效地绕过了电吸收调制激光器(EML)的瓶颈，甚至提高了能效。 根据捷普(Jabil)管理层的说法，他们建立了“相对显著的护城河”。 因此，对于下一代 1.6T 可插拔光模块，Sivers 似乎立即被采用。 市场也错过了这一细微差别：在捷普宣布后，其他可插拔厂商也主动联系，SIVE 现在正与他们合作（可能处于联合开发、资格认证阶段）。 像 Lumentum 这样垂直整合的光模块厂商并不多（想想中际旭创/新易盛，可能还有其他）。 所以这些是正在进行的开发，只是尚未公开披露，随时可能发布新的新闻稿。 - 对于 2026 年下半年开始的 CPO 规模扩展(scale out)，如 $POET，$SIVE 是这些厂商的激光器供应商。 - 规模扩展(scale up) CPO 将在 2027 年下半年到来，来自 Ayar 和英伟达(Nvidia)的 NVLink CPO 生态系统，这是光模块厂商的主要放量阶段。 但在这里，$SIVE 看起来在供应链映射中碾压其他所有玩家。 因为他们很可能早在规模尚小时就与 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 等合作并完成了设计导入。 除此之外还有： 对于像 $GFS 这样的晶圆代工厂，$SIVE 是参考激光器。 甚至不包括像 O-Net 这样与 $SIVE 合作构建 ELS 的大公司，可能用于亚洲超大规模数据中心的供应链。 这就是为什么 $SIVE 是我目前最看好的激光器瓶颈长持标的。 感觉从 2027 年初开始，他们在新的光学架构中无处不在。
英文原文
That’s a misconception: $SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up. Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc. - Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers. Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient. From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”. So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used. Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage). There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others). So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime. - for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET , $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players. - scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players. But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping. Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when. On top of things like this: For foundries like $GFS , $SIVE is the reference laser. Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains. This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long. Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.
-
OE Solutions是韩国自主光子学玩家，风险高于SIVE，Q3-Q4或更有趣。
最近我收到了很多关于 OE Solutions (138080) 的询问。 以下是我目前的研究/想法： 这是一家小型韩国光收发器公司，类似于 $AAOI。 他们已成为全球少数 EML（电吸收调制激光器）玩家之一（例如 $COHR、$LITE、三菱、Source、住友），拥有稀缺的用于 800G/1.6T 的 100G EML 激光器产能。 OE 似乎正试图制造完整的光收发器，而不仅仅是 EML。他们还有成品 ELSFP CPO（共封装光学）产品，采用 UHP CW（连续波）激光器，预计 Q3 开始送样。 同样，OE 似乎也在构建完整的 ELSFP，而不是仅出售 CW 激光器裸片，从而获取更多市场份额。 所以你可以将其视为韩国版 AAOI，但主打 EML 而非 CW，且产能/资质较少。正在追赶世界其他玩家。 然而就时间线而言： 1. 23dBm 冷却 ELSFP 样品于 2026 年 Q3 开始 2. 800G 的销售基础，以及 2027 年 1.6T “全力”推进 3. 2027 年下半年至 2028 年上半年，其 ELSFP 可能进入量产。 而且他们似乎正在研发 200G EML 能力，其 2025 年投资者简报中提到的“100GBaud EML / 200G PAM”似乎很有前景，鉴于其 IP/演示。 ELS 刚刚发布，Q3 开始送样。800G/1.6T 光收发器也可能在 2027 年。 所以这基本上是韩国的自主光子学玩家，正在追赶 $LITE、$AAOI 和更大的玩家。 （披露：我持有 OE Solutions (138080) 头寸。这是出于信息目的的基本面研究，非财务建议）。 关于 OE 的估值： 1. 这些增长领域似乎还没有确认的客户。 2. 可能没多少人理解他们在构建什么。 3. 良率数据相当不确定 1. 客户：我们实际上正处于严重的 EML/CW 激光器短缺中，因此任何独立产能都会备受追捧。我个人认为他们在这里不会很难找到客户。我假设他们生产的任何东西都可能被买断，并会得到韩国的额外支持。 2. 机构支持：可能不多，因为其市值+韩国上市不符合许多美国机构的门槛。我也不认为很多人理解他们在构建什么。 3. 良率/产能：OE 披露的晶圆/模块利用率低（我记得大约是 31% 未充分利用），所以在需要资本支出之前，他们有足够的材料收入可以产生。 我也不确定 EML/CW 和其他良率。可能需要去问公司。 这是家随机垃圾公司吗？不。它从事光收发器业务已超过 20 年，在美国和荷兰有研发。 但他们整个 AI 增长领域似乎明年才会发生，主要取决于产能/良率。 我个人认为 EML/CW 技术如果作为收购目标，可能比当前市值值钱得多。 特别是对于想要垂直整合 EML 用于可插拔模块和 CW 激光器用于 CPO 的大玩家。 市场可能在等待 Q3 送样后更多关于资质的确定性，或盈利预测公告。 想法 TLDR： 我的一些朋友去年讨论过，可能太早了。两个月前看到它有很多评论，仍然太早。 我认为现在仍然太早，但 Q3-Q4 后期可能更有趣。我个人认为它比主要 CPO 玩家如 $SIVE 风险大得多，后者已嵌入 Ayar、$JBL、$GFS 和许多其他超大规模供应商。也有 Win Semi 等降低量产风险。 因为 OE Solutions 看起来像是一个新玩家，试图为光收发器构建一个 $AAOI，但拥有自主 EML 和 CW 激光器生产用于 CPO 产品。 关于客户+量产爬坡有很多未解问题，存在重大风险。 但如果你相信韩国能构建出 800G/1.6T 光收发器 EML 供应链和带 CW 激光器的 ELSFP。 通过 OE Solutions，可能值得看一眼。仍在研究该公司，只是初步想法。
英文原文
I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently. Here's my research/thoughts so far on it: They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI . And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR , $LITE , Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), with scarce 100G EML laser capacity for 800G/1.6T. OE appears to be trying to make the full transceiver, not just the EML. They also have finished ELSFP CPO products, with UHP CW lasers, which is sampling Q3. Likewise, OE also seems to be building out the full ELSFP, rather than selling CW laser dies, so that's more market share. So you can think of it as Korean AAOI but EML instead of CW, and less capacity/qualifications. And playing catch-up to the rest of the world. However in terms of timelines: 1. 23dBm cooled ELSFP samples start in Q3 2026 2. Sales base for 800G, and 2027 1.6T "full force" 3. Late H2 2027, H1 2028 onward probably their ELSFP enters the volume production. And it seems they're working on 200G EML capability from their investor snipper 2025 OE IR snippet referenced “100GBaud EML / 200G PAM". This seems promising given their IP/demos. ELS has just been unveiled recently, sampling starts Q3. 800G/1.6T Optical transceivers are also likely 2027. So this is basically Korea's sovereign photonics player, playing catchup to $LITE , $AAOI , and the bigger players. (Disclosure: I have positions in OE Solutions (138080). This is fundamental research for informational purposes, not financial advice). As for OE solution valuations: 1. Doesn't seem like there's confirmed customers yet for these growth verticals. 2. Probably not many people understood what they're building toward yet. 3. Yields data kinda uncertain 1. Customers: We're actually in a major EML/CW laser shortage, so any independent capacity will be sought after. I personally don't think they'll have a hard time finding customers here. I would assume anything they make might get bought out and would get extra support from Korea. 2. Institutional support: Probably not much since it doesn't meet threshold for many US institution given MC size + KR listing. I also don't think many people understood what they're building yet. 3. Yields/Capacity: OE's disclosed wafer/module utilization is low (i remember was around 31% underutilized off the top of my head), so there's enough material revenue they can generate before they need to spend on capex. I'm also not sure about EML/CW and other yields. Probably need to go ask the company. Is this some random crap co? No. It's been doing optical transceivers stuff for more than 20Y, has R&D in the U.S. and Netherlands. But their entire AI growth vertical seems to happen next year, and hinges mainly around capacity/yields. And I personally think the EML/CW tech is probably worth a lot more than their current MC, if it were an acquisition target. Especially from a larger player that wanted to vertically integrate EML for pluggables and CW lasers for CPO. Markets are probably waiting on more certainty around qualifications after Q3 sampling or earnings projections announcements. TLDR on thoughts: Some of my friends discussed this last year, was probably way too early. Saw it got many comments 2 months ago, still too early. I still think now is early, but later in Q3-Q4 might be more interesting. I personally think it's a lot higher risk than a major CPO player like $SIVE, that's embedded in Ayar, $JBL , $GFS , and many other hyperscaler suppliers. Which also has Win Semi and others de-risking volume ramp. As OE Solutions looks like a new player trying to build out an $AAOI for the optical transceivers but sovereign EML and CW laser production for CPO products. And there's a lot of answered questions around customers + volume ramp, which presents material risk. But if you believe Korea can build out an 800G/1.6T transceiver EML supply chain and ELSFP with CW lasers. With OE Solutions, it might be worth taking a look into. Still researching the company tho, just initial thoughts.
-
LPK会议纪要显示其计划纳斯达克上市且目标激进，博主认为其被严重低估。
哇，我完全错过了 $LPK 会议纪要中的这一点。我认为市场也错过了。我最大的收获： - 纳斯达克上市已在其积极考虑范围内，且正在讨论中。 - 目标市场份额为 70%，这是一个极其激进的目标。 - 总可寻址市场(TAM)远超此前预测。 - 预计今年将有 4-5 家基准玩家获得订单。 - 行业已准备好进行大规模量产爬坡。 基于这些讨论，我认为 $LPK 被严重低估（披露：持有仓位）。
英文原文
Wow, I completely missed this with $LPK meeting notes. And I think markets did too. My biggest takeaway: - NASDAQ listing is actively on their radar and are in discussions. - 70% market share targeted, unholy target. - TAM greatly exceeds former projections. - See a 4-5 base case of players this year with orders. - Industry is ready for high volume ramps. I do think LPK is very undervalued based on these discussions (disclosure: own positions).
-
特朗普宣布苹果英特尔合作，博主调侃其硬扛英特尔股价。
特朗普宣布英特尔(Intel)与苹果(Apple)达成合作，今日 $INTC 股价上涨 8%。据报道，英特尔高管对特朗普宣布的 $AAPL 合作感到惊讶。说实话，总统现在应该领导英特尔的市场团队。感觉是他一个人在硬扛这支股票。
英文原文
Trump announced Intel + Apple partnership, sending $INTC up 8% today. Intel execs were reportedly surprised by the $AAPL announcement by Donald Trump. TBH, the President should lead Intel's marketing team at this point. Feel's like he's hard carrying the stock.
-
Riber交付量子计算系统并获微软关注，MBE双寡头地位受肯定。
$ALRIB 股东大会纪要今日发布。 - 第二套 ROSIE 系统预计将很快交付给美国一家领先的量子计算玩家。 - 他们还在加强其用于光子学 BTO/STO 产品的商务拓展(BD)，并记录了强烈的兴趣。 - 仅作背景补充：他们是与 Veeco 并存的分子束外延(MBE)双寡头之一，Veeco 近期因量子计算曝光度而大幅重估（披露：我持有 Riber 股票）。 - 整体上是积极的发展。
英文原文
$ALRIB general meeting notes came out today. -2nd ROSIE System expected to be delivered shortly to a leading quantum computing player” in the US. - They’re also intensifying BD for their products used for BTO/STO on photonics and recorded strong interest. Just for background, they’re the MBE duopoly with Veeco, which got re-rated heavily recently (Disclosure own Riber), with exposure to Quantum. Positive development overall.
-
WUS 持有高值子公司股份却市值极低，建议管理层减持以释放价值。
我同意 Palliser Capital 的观点。作为股东，WUS（2316 TW）市值仅约 10 亿美元简直太愚蠢了。尽管他们持有昆山 WUS 11.26% 的股份，而后者是一家市值 393 亿美元（2820 亿人民币）的公司……其税前价值达 44.2 亿美元。只需出售四分之一或类似比例的股份？你还能额外获得约 11 亿美元，用于处于 AI 需求拐点的 PCB 增长。这纯粹以现金计算，就已超过你当前的税前市值。此外还有 33 亿美元的资产 + 市场可能会因为愿意减持受限资产而重新评估你的公司。没人要求你减持所有资产，但净资产价值（NAV）的脱节简直是疯狂。WUS TW 管理层真的应该重新考虑。
英文原文
I agree with Palliser Capital here. As a shareholder, it’s just so stupid how WUS (2316 TW) MC can be ~$1B MC. While they own a 11.26% stake of WUS Kunshan, a $39.3B (¥282B CNY) company… Which is worth $4.42B pre-tax. Just sell 1/4th or something? And you get an extra ~$1.1B for PCB growth at the inflection point with AI demand. Which is more than your current MC pre-tax, purely in cash. And there’s still $3.3B in assets + markets might revalue your company because of willingness to trim locked up assets. Nobody is asking you to trim everything, but the NAV disconnect is insanity. WUS TW management should really reconsider.
-
吉姆·克拉默为SPCX背书，暗示其看涨。
吉姆·克拉默(Jim Cramer)为 $SPCX 背书。
英文原文
Jim Cramer gave $SPCX his blessing.
-
AEHR获硅光子客户后续订单，股价两月内从30涨至116美元。
$AEHR 收到主要硅光子(Silicon Photoning)客户关于晶圆级老化(wafer level burn in)系统的后续生产订单。 今日股价上涨 11.29% 至 $116。 就在两个月前它还只有 30 多美元，真是好时光。
英文原文
$AEHR receives follow up production order from major Silicon Photonics Customer for wafer level burn in systems. Now up 11.29% today to $116. Only 2 months ago it was in the $30's, good times.
-
NBIS创新高而IREN套牢，证明NBIS优于IREN。
七个月后…… $NBIS 创下历史新高。 而 $IREN 的套牢盘仍在为 60 亿美元的自动取款机(ATM)融资买单，股价仍停留在 11 月的水平。 看来这场争论到此为止了？
英文原文
And 7 months later... $NBIS is all time highs. While $IREN bagholders are still funding the $6,000,000,000 ATM and stuck at the same price back in November. Guess this settles the debate?
-
XFAB 被低估为主权 AI 受益者，作者好奇市场反应
我觉得 $XFAB 没什么新消息。不过他们的公司确实该在营销材料上做得更好。毕竟没人认为他们算是光学 AI 数据中心或功率半导体相关的敞口。然而，我以为既然他们正通过 PhotonixFab 引领欧洲硅光子学（Silicon Photonics）价值链的努力，加上显然大家都在讨论 Fable 出口管制后的主权 AI 供应链，人们可能会认为他们是主权 AI 推动下的主要受益者之一，与 IMEC、Ligentec 等并列？总之，市场可以持不同意见，或者只是没把这些联系起来。不管怎样，我只是好奇这会如何演变。（披露：持有仓位）
英文原文
Don’t think there’s any new news from $XFAB. Their company needs to do a better job with marketing materials though. Since nobody thinks they’re optical ai dc or power semi adjacent exposure apparently. However, I would have thought that since they’re leading Europe’s silicon photonics value chain efforts with PhotonixFab. And apparently everyone + EU are discussing sovereign AI supply chains after Fable’s export controls. One might think they’re a major beneficiary alongside IMEC, ligentec and others in the sovereign AI push? Anyway, markets can always disagree or maybe they didn’t link things together. Regardless, I’m just curious how this plays out. (Disclosure, own positions)
-
博主正在研读关于WUS的激进投资者报告。
所以我正在阅读一份关于 $WUS 的激进投资者报告……
英文原文
So I’m reading about an activist report about WUS …
-
反驳对AAOI的看空观点，强调其稀缺激光产能受AMD等巨头青睐。
我不明白为什么很多人对我高确信度的 $AAOI 多头头寸极度看空…… 从 $30 开始，然后一路涨到 $170。（是的，我认为每个看空者都错了，我们走着瞧）。 他们拥有稀缺的激光产能，正是 $AMD 和其他超大规模云服务商所寻求的。
英文原文
I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long… Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right). They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for. While
-
SPCX斥资600亿收购Cursor，作者质疑估值但看好其数据价值。
哇， $SPCX 以600亿美元收购了Cursor。 我认为它不值那么多…… 也许网络效应或用于改进模型的数据变得无价？ 我相信埃隆心里有盘算，Twitter收购带来了极大的回报。
英文原文
Woah, $SPCX acquired Cursor for $60B. I did not think it was worth that much… Maybe network effect or data for improving models became invaluable? I’m sure Elon has a plan in mind, the Twitter acquisition paid extreme dividends.
-
博主重申美光如英伟达般受益于AI打破存储周期，验证其投资逻辑。
我确实说过 $MU 看起来像下一个 $NVDA。现在它的市值已达 1.23 万亿美元。早在 2025 年，我就开始更多讨论三星电子/SK 海力士。今年 1 月，我加大了对 $SNDK 等存储主题的关注。我很高兴我对美光+存储的预测是正确的。
英文原文
I did say $MU looked like the next $NVDA . Now we're at a $1.23T MC. Started talking more about Samsung Electronics/Sk Hynix back in 2025. Put more concentration into the memory theme like $SNDK and others, Jan of this year. And I'm glad my prediction with Micron + memory is
-
SIVE是JBL、NVDA CPO及GFS的关键唯一供应商。
$SIVE 是下一个 $SIVE。 我不认为你能找到另一家公司： - 具备资格且可能是主要/唯一来源，服务于 $JBL 和其他可插拔超大规模供应商 - 服务于 Ayar 和 $NVDA NVLink 共封装光学(CPO) 生态系统 同时作为 $GFS 的基础参考激光器供应商。
英文原文
$SIVE is the next SIVE. Don’t think you’ll find another company. That’s qualified and likely primary/sole source with: - $JBL and other pluggable hyperscaler suppliers - Ayar and the $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystems While being the foundational reference laser for $GFS and
-
富松因中国对日出口管制致钨源短缺而受益，单日涨幅远超指数。
我确实说过富松(093370)将成为中国对日本实施出口管制所造成瓶颈的主要受益者……大多数人追逐7.5%的指数回报，然而随机发现的瓶颈可能在一天内带来21%的涨幅，哈哈。
英文原文
I did say Foosung (093370) was going to be a major winner from the bottleneck created by Chinese export controls on Japan… Most people chase 7.5% index returns, yet random bottlenecks spotted might be 21% in a day lol
-
特朗普政策利好，看好功率半导体、光学及太空板块个股。
没错，看空确实非常愚蠢。特朗普正在竭尽全力在中期选举前提振市场。此外，你的 $WOLF 功率半导体组合应该会因 800V 直流电(800 VDC)加速而暴涨。$LITE 光学组合应该会因磷化铟(InP)供应缓解而暴涨。$SPCX 成功上市(IPO)带来了更多热情。
英文原文
Yep, very stupid to be a bear. When Trump is doing everything to boost markets before Midterms. On top, your $WOLF power semi basket should go brrr from 800 VDC acceleration. $LITE optical basket should go brrr from InP easing. $SPCX successful IPO gives more appetite to
-
摩根大通增持$SIVE超5%股权，股价仅微涨3.36%。
惊讶于摩根大通(机构)买入Sivers超5%股权的消息公布后，$SIVE 股价仅上涨3.36%。 且这仅仅是最近一个月内的事。 这是Sivers流通盘首次出现重大机构买入信号。
英文原文
Surprised $SIVE is only up 3.36% off the news JP Morgan (institutional) bought 5%+ ownership of Sivers. Just in the last month alone. First major signal of major institutional buying of the float for Sivers. https://t.co/eSfKSQCEhM
-
我确实认为绿的谐波(688017)是中国机器人行业里突出的零部件龙头。 我研究过很多其他机器人标的和 $TSLA Optimus 供应商，但绿的谐波非常独特。 和那些做低利润率组装、低价值零部件、或更容易被设计替换的公司相比，它不一样。 高盛研究等西方机构多次提到绿的谐波： -> 它是一家具有高技术壁垒的公司，例如谐波减速器。 -> 并且很可能在每台人形机器人里捕获高价值零部件成本，比如行星滚柱丝杠。 简单说，绿的谐波覆盖了： 1. 多种不同零部件，且进入壁垒高 2. 如果把这些部件合在一起，占每台人形机器人较高的物料清单(BOM)价值 3. 低成本大规模量产能力 这些都对应每一台被制造出来的人形机器人。 请在做决定前自己研究这个主题；但从长期看，如果你相信人形机器人行业会增长，我认为绿的谐波(688017)非常有吸引力。 主要风险来自其他新兴中国公司在不同单项零部件上抢占市场份额。 另一个风险是量产后利润率随时间下降，就像 $VPG 的传感器从早期预生产阶段的750美元降到150美元。 但总体而言，我不认为中国以外的公司，比如 Harmonic Drive(6324)，能在大规模生产上实现同样成本。这也是为什么 $TSLA Optimus 正在中国建立广泛供应链。 所以我们很可能看到供应链分化：一边是来自中国供应链、成本约1.5万到2万美元的低成本量产人形机器人；另一边是来自西方供应链、成本更高的人形机器人。 如果你只看当前市盈率并说它很高，我认为很大一部分误解来自没有看未来增长。 目前还没有真正大规模量产。智元机器人(AGIbot)最近在3月实现了1万台产量。 但未来3-5年，如果按照埃隆·马斯克和其他人的预测，每年会生产数百万台人形机器人，那么人形/机器人行业的总可寻址市场(TAM)会非常大。 所以我的预期是，回头看绿的谐波当前106.5亿美元市值，相对于它在整体机器人市场里可能捕获的份额，会显得非常小。 因此我不认为这样的投资论点应该用短期时间框架来衡量，也不认为人们应该主动交易这类名字。 它更像是一个长期投资想法：这家公司可能在未来几年指数级增长的整体人形机器人市场中，捕获相当重要的一部分。
英文原文
I do think LeaderDrive (688017) is China's standout component leader in the robotics sector. I've done a lot of research on other robotics picks / $TSLA Optimus suppliers, but LeaderDrive is extremely unique. Compared to others doing lower margin assembly, or lower value components, with higher design out risk. Western institutions like Goldman Sachs Research flags LeaderDrive many times: -> As a company with high technology barriers (eg. harmonic reduction gear). -> and likely capturing high component value costs like planetary roller screws of each humanoid produced. In simpler terms with LeaderDrive, you cover: 1. Many different components, with high barrier to entry 2. High BOM of each humanoid made, if you combine them together 3. Mass production capability at low cost. For each humanoid made. Please do your research on this topic before making your own decision; but long-term if you believe in humanoid sector growth: I think LeaderDrive (688017) is very compelling. Risk is mainly coming from other emerging Chinese companies taking over market share of different individual components. As well as mass-production margins decreasing over time; as seen with $VPG going from $750 (for early stage pre-production) -> $150 for sensors. But in general, I don't believe companies outside China like Harmonic Drive (6324) can achieve the same costs for mass production, which is why $TSLA Optimus is creating extensive supply chains from China. So we'll likely see supply chains be bifurcated with cheap mass production $15k-20K humanoids from Chinese supply chains. And higher cost humanoids from Western supply chains. Again if you look at current P/E ratios and say it's high; a lot of it is misunderstanding comes from not looking at forward growth: Nothing has been mass produced yet. AGIbot has recently achieved 10k units produced back in March. But in the next 3-5 years, the TAM of the humanoid/robotics sector forecasted by Elon Musk and others very large, if he's expecting millions of humanoids to be produced a year. So my expectation is the current $10.65B MC would look very tiny in hindsight of LeaderDrive's market capture of the overall robotics market. So I don't believe thesis like this should be measured in short term timeframes (or that people should actively trade names like these). Moreso a long term investment idea about how this company could capture a material part of the overall humanoid market that exponentially grows over the next few years.
-
认为台积电可能是更适合投入的优质标的。
回复 @vipmoaa：$TSM 可能是最适合这样做的名字之一。 投资回报率大概会比你那辆不断贬值的车更好。
英文原文
@vipmoaa $TSM is probably one of the better names to do that for. Probably better RoI than your depreciating car
-
认为XFAB是去风险的CPO晶圆代工机会。
呃，$XFAB 是一个已经去风险的晶圆代工标的。如果他们能在2027年下半年/2028年把事情做成，CPO 带来的上行空间会很有吸引力？ 我把这称为抢在机构前面……因为这本质上是在正常重估发生前几个月进行的大型猜测游戏。 原因是现在更多是客户/文件映射加时间线推测，还没有正式的大批量合同。 但我觉得我是对的？我们拭目以待。
英文原文
Uhh, $XFAB de-risked foundry. Compelling upside from CPO if they make things work in H2 2027/2028? I call this frontrunning institutions... since it's a massive guessing game few months ahead of normal repricing. Cause it's a lot of customer/document mapping + timeline guessing without formal volume contracts in place. But I think I'm right? We'll see.
-
好吧……周末再随便想一些关于 $XFAB 的东西。 我仍然觉得它可能成为下一个 $TSEM，只是现在还处在早期阶段，市值约14亿美元？ 他们有点跳过了当前一代技术（$TSEM 正在从中获得出货量），转而竞争2027年下半年 CPO 放量拐点。$ASX 文件提到 Xfab（也就是 photonixFAB）专注于 CPO。 他们正在搭建某种像黑魔法一样的 MTP（转移印刷）激光架构，并结合 TFLN 等其他东西。 基本上这是下一代集成 IP。当然，他们的良率仍然落后。 但 $NVDA 正在评估它用于收发器/交换机，看它能否实现批量爬坡。而 $NOK 负责制定这些交换机/网络设备的规格和组装（顺便说一句，英伟达也投资了诺基亚，和这些交换机/网络有关）。 如果他们的 MTP 供应链跑通，比如 Smart Photonics 提供激光器、欧洲厂商负责组装，那么它基本上会随着 $NVDA 一起放量，就像 Nvidia 当初为什么和 $TSEM 签长期协议一样。 下行风险呢？ 它已经低于重置账面价值，当然还能更低，但通常会有一个限度。 未来几个月也许会有更多 CHIPS Act 2 补贴。如果 CPO 不顺利，还有 SiC（同比增长152%，SiC 晶圆出货同比增长195%）和 GaN 功率半导体的上行空间。 欧洲人或大模型会说：“哦，评估并不代表未来合同！” 但这次有点不同，因为欧盟站在这项努力背后，$XFAB 也涉及主权光子供应链。 这不是典型的公司与超大云厂商评估，因为 $NVDA 也想对欧洲监管者保持友好。如果英伟达只留在美国/台湾/中国，欧洲大概会很生气。 所以，如果他们能把这种 MTP 黑魔法做成并实现量产，几乎可以确定 Nvidia/Nokia 会让这家小小的14亿美元硅光子代工厂参与放量，至少也会给他们一些较小合同。 从时间线看，也许只是早了几个月，因为放量在2027年下半年/2028年上半年，这刚好和 CPO 扩产时间线一致。 也可能只是市场还没搞懂，因为他们把项目命名成 photonixfab 这种奇怪名字？ 如果叫 XFAB Photonics 可能会更好，让机构和筛选器在寻找 CPO 硅光子代工厂时更容易把点连起来。 汽车业务中期也应该走出低谷，并受自动驾驶加速。台积电董事长昨天评论称，AI 汽车和机器人一样是台积电的增长向量。所以它的核心业务中期也应该重新加速。 显然，市场和欧洲投资者想看到的是“英伟达签署20亿美元以上合同，XFab 2027年放量！” 但到那时，它就会是一家90亿美元以上的公司，你也就错过所有上行空间了。尤其是现在分析师和机构对这些放量预期几乎是盲的。 我通常不投资仍在评估阶段的公司，但这次看起来受到欧盟主权和政府支持显著去风险；如果 IP 做得出来，还有 Nvidia 和 Nokia 带来出货量。 我认为市场很可能漏掉了什么……它作为欧洲 CPO 敞口的长期上行价值，几乎还没有被定价。
英文原文
Okay... just some more weekend shower thoughts about $XFAB. I still feel like it could be the next $TSEM, just early stage at a $1.4B MC? They kinda leapfrogged current gens (which $TSEM are getting volume from) to compete for H2 2027 CPO scale up inflection point ($ASX docs cite Xfab (aka. photonixFAB) as focusing on CPO) By building out some black magic MTP (transfer printing) architecture for lasers w/ other stuff like TFLN. Basically next-gen integration IP, they're still behind on yields, sure. But $NVDA evaluating it for transceivers/switches to see if it can volume ramp. That $NOK sets the specifications/assembly for. (nvidia invested in nokia for this these switches/networking too btw). And if their MTP supply chain works... (eg. with Smartphotonics providing lasers, EU players doing assembly). It basically volume ramps with $NVDA just like why Nvidia signed long term agreements with $TSEM? Downside risk? Already below replacement book value, can always go lower yeah, but typically to a certain point. Maybe more CHIPS act subsidies next few months from chips act 2. If it doesn't go well there's SiC (152% Y/Y Growth, 195% Y/Y SiC wafer shipment growth)/GaN power semi upside. Europeans /LLMs will say "oh evaluations doesn't mean it's a future contract!". This is kinda different since the European Union is behind this effort and $XFAB for soverign photonic supply chains. Not your typical company + hyperscaler evaluation, since $NVDA wants to be nice to Europe's regulators. They'd prob be pissed if nvidia just stayed in US/Taiwan/China. So if they can make this MTP black magic work with mass production, feels almost for sure nvidia/nokia volume ramp on some tiny $1.4B silicon photonics foundry or at least throw them a bone with smaller contracts. In terms of timelines, maybe just a months early since it volume ramps H2 2027/H1 2028 (which happens to be in line with CPO scale up timelines)... Or just unknown because they named their project something stupid like photonixfab? Like XFAB Photonics would have been better? so institutions/screeners can connect the dots when looking at CPO silicon photonic foundry players? Automotive should also coming out of a slump medium term, sped up by self-driving (TSM Chairmain comments yesterday said ai automotive was TSM's growth vector alongside robotics). So their core business also should pick up speed too medium term. Obviously markets/europeans want a "Nvidia signs $2B+ contract, XFab volume ramping 2027!" But by then it will be a $9B+ company and you miss out on all the upside. And especially since everyone analyst/institution is blind to volume expectations for these.... Normally don't invest in companies in evaluation stages, but this just seems very de-risked by EU sovereignty + Gov backing, and you have Nvidia + Nokia there for volumes if they can make the IP work. I think markets are probably missing something here... there's almost 0 value being assigned to being CPO exposure in Europe as their long term upside.
-
称美国机构正在买入SIVE流通盘。
回复 @tw_crypto_：与此同时，在瑞典那边……美国机构正在买走流通盘。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ Meanwhile over in Sweden… while US institutions are buying up the float https://t.co/ezOFC0rnqG
-
警告瑞典对冲基金不要做空SIVE的光子学地位。
回复 @Camilogicly：这正是我一直告诉瑞典对冲基金不要做空 $SIVE 的原因。 因为对美国机构和超大云厂商来说，买下整个 Sivers 流通盘只是零钱。 尤其考虑到它们在光子学中的作用。
英文原文
@Camilogicly Exactly why I keep telling Swedish hedge funds not to go short on $SIVE. Since buying the entire Sivers float is spare change to US institutions and hyperscalers. Especially given their role in photonics.