个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2359 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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反驳用 SpaceX 高增长去硬套离谱估值
这和我跟 $VCX 争论时遇到的论点一样：有人说因为 SpaceX 增长很快，所以应该值 30 万亿美元，而 $META 才 1.4 万亿美元。 你完全可以通过 Hiive 或其他方式买入，而不是一边付 5 倍溢价，一边还要承受 20 亿美元的稀释，在这么小的 NAV 上继续被摊薄。
英文原文
This is the same at argument I got with $VCX with people telling me SpaceX should trade at $30T because of how fast they’re growing while $META trades at $1.4T. You can just buy it Hiive or other methods without paying 5X premiums… on top of getting diluted $2B off such a small NAV
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质疑 Figure 的估值能否对标更大的独角兽
Unitree 这家领先的人形机器人公司估值 60 亿美元就要 IPO，你却说 Figure 大概值 2000 亿美元，笑死。
英文原文
@NicholasBardy Unitree, the leading humanoid maker, is IPOing at $6B valuation and you’re saying Figure is probably worth $200B lol
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批评高估值浮筹和持续稀释
@AlanSmith838 我真不明白，为什么有人会在这个估值上买这种“更傻的人接盘”式的庞氏浮筹。 同时还有 20 亿美元的缓慢稀释。 这类基金的想法也许是好的，老板们可能起初也有善意。 但现在它已经完全跑偏了。
英文原文
@AlanSmith838 I genuinely don't understand why people would just buy a greater fools theory pyramid scheme float at this valuation. While there's $2B slow drip dilution. The idea of funds like these are good. Maybe the owners had good intention. But right now it's driven way off course.
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指出 BOT 的 NAV 与股价严重脱节
$BOT 是最明显的红旗。 NAV 是每股 7.34 美元，而现在股价是 37.92 美元。 你基本上是在按 2000 亿美元以上的估值买 Figure，而它自己只值 390 亿美元。 买这个公司，本质上是在买别人的浮筹博弈，而不是买成长或基本面。 更糟的是，还有 20 亿美元的稀释在继续发生，等于是大家被一路稀释到看不见。 很多基金经理会私信像我这样的意见领袖，但现实里： 散户看起来就是退出流动性。
英文原文
$BOT is the biggest red flag. NAV is $7.34/share. The stock is now trading at $37.92. You are basically buying Figure at $200B+ while it’s valued at $39B. Buying the company is just trading pyramid float dynamics off other retail. Not the appreciation or underlying fundamentals. To make matters worse: There’s $2B dilution as valuation arbitrage as you all get diluted to oblivion. I got a lot of fund managers dming influencers like myself about it but in reality: Retail just looks like exit liquidity.
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只为现场调研 Harmonic Drive 和 Towa 来日本
我来日本只为了对 Harmonic Drive（6324）和 Towa（6315）做第一手尽调。 不太确定其他人晚上都在干什么…… https://t.co/fnSxJlZHVe
英文原文
I only came to Japan to do first person DD on Harmonic Drive (6324) and Towa (6315). Not sure what everyone else is doing in the evenings there… https://t.co/fnSxJlZHVe
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用 CRCL 算一笔很简单的收益
@Partfortynineg1 $54 x 2 =$108 with $CRCL https://t.co/2LaN9mX322
英文原文
@Partfortynineg1 $54 x 2 =$108 with $CRCL https://t.co/2LaN9mX322
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把早期仓位切换到 CPO 名字里
@ajmotleyfool 没有，我把今年早些时候的一些持仓，最近都换进了像 Foci、Shunsin、$SIVE 这类 CPO 名字。
英文原文
@ajmotleyfool Nope, I've pivoted a lot of the earlier players in the year into CPO names like Foci, Shunsin, $SIVE recently.
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懊恼自己看对了 MXL 却没买
我太气了……为什么我明明认定 $MXL 是一个很好的具体机会。 结果自己却没去做多？ 我一提它就直接涨了 300%。 https://t.co/IVFqYC8GfG
英文原文
I’m so mad… why do I identify $MXL as a great opportunity in specific. Then not go long? Just straight up 300% after I call it out. https://t.co/IVFqYC8GfG
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认为只要 thesis 不破，公司就能继续成长
我不确定大家有没有意识到，只要一个 thesis 没有彻底被证伪，像 $NBIS 这种公司就可以继续成长。 看看过去 15 年的 $AMZN 或 $GOOGL 就知道。 如果你老是“减仓”，往往会先触发税负。很多回撤其实还没大到抵消你已经交掉的税。 等所谓“50% 暴跌”真的发生时，价格可能早就已经复利了几百甚至几千个百分点。 如果你需要花钱，只要仓位到了七位数、八位数甚至九位数，你完全可以借着这些资产去融资，同时继续让它们升值。 NFA，只是我个人观点。你们自己随意，但这非常、非常取决于你选的公司。 像 $IREN 这种垃圾就没法这么做。不过我确实认为 $NBIS 已经站在成为下一个 hyperscaler 的位置上了。
英文原文
Not sure if people realized this but unless a thesis completely breaks, companies like $NBIS can keep growing. Just look at $AMZN or $GOOGL over the past 15 years. If people "trim" it often triggers taxes. And a lot of corrections are typically less than those taxes paid. By the time a "50% crash happens", it's probably already compounded hundreds of even thousands of percent. If people need to pay expenses, once you hit 7-8-9 figures, you can always borrow against those assets and keep letting them appreciate. NFA, just personal opinion. You all do you, but it's highly, highly, dependent on the companies you pick. Can't do this with something trash like $IREN. But I do believe $NBIS is positioned to be the next hyperscaler.
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看多FOCI，认为市场低估CPO瓶颈前景，类似去年AXTI。
@RayT168 对FOCI非常有信心，市场目前正在低估未来的共封装光学(CPO)瓶颈，就像去年的$AXTI一样。
英文原文
@RayT168 Pretty high conviction in FOCI, markets underpricing future CPO bottlenecks right now just like $AXTI last year
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看好Harmonic Drive，但更倾向用资本支持西方供应链而非中国。
我确实看好 Harmonic Drive (6324) 作为西方谐波减速器领域的领导者，估值约 42 亿美元。在机器人/人形机器人的物料清单价值中占非常大比重。我实际上更看好 Leader Drive（因为大规模生产更便宜，覆盖更多零件）。也许三花(Sanhua)会是 $TSLA Optimus 的供应商。但用我的资本，我更偏好支持西方供应链而非中国供应链。这不仅仅是赚市场的钱，还关乎你想达成什么目标（帮助推进美国供应链和机器人行业领导者）。
英文原文
I do like Harmonic Drive (6324) as the Western Leader (eg. harmonic reduction gear) at ~$4.2B MC. Very large part of robotics/humanoid BOM value. I actually like Leader Drive more (since it's cheaper for mass production, covers more parts). And maybe Sanhua for $TSLA Optimus. But prefer to advance Western supply chains with my capital over ones in China. It's not just profiting off markets, but what you want to get accomplished as well (helping advance US supply chains and Robotics leaders).
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认为 FOCI 被严重低估
FOCI（3363）是现在全市场里被低估最严重的 CPO 玩家之一，市值大概只有 30 亿美元。 它的 BOM 相对市值非常大，而且预计会拿到 $NVDA / $TSM 的主导性份额。 你要到 2027 / 2028 年才会真正看到这件事兑现，虽然我们现在已经进入 2026 年下半年了（这也是我说在提前押注 CPO 超级周期）。
英文原文
FOCI (3363) is one of the most undervalued CPO players in the entire market right now at ~$3B. Their BOM is massive relative to MC and they're expected to capture a dominant market share for $NVDA / $TSM. You only start to see this show up 2027 / 2028, even though we're entering H2 2026 now (which is what I mean by frontrunning CPO supercycle).
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说 Shunsin 的 CPO/SiPh 逻辑开始兑现
花了一个月…… 但我关于 Shunsin（6451）CPO / SiPh 的想法开始兑现了。 我一直说，像 $IQE 到 $SOI 这些 thesis，通常会在我发帖后大概 1 个月左右突然开始上涨……这真的很诡异。 也许是机构在跟单？ https://t.co/qWGvNsJk2C
英文原文
Took a month… But my Shunsin (6451) CPO/SiPh idea is starting to play out. I’m telling you with all these ideas like $IQE to $SOI, they randomly start going up like 1 month after my thesis posts… it’s extremely uncanny. Maybe institution copy trading? https://t.co/qWGvNsJk2C
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对 CBRS 估值太高但仍看好短期波动
我不太喜欢 $CBRS，尤其是市值到了大约 900 亿到 1000 亿美元的时候。 但我喜欢这家公司。 IPO 之后因为流通盘和浮筹动态，短期内往往会出现很大的估值错位，就像 $CRCL 或 $BULL 一样。 所以我不会惊讶它会在短时间里交易到离谱估值，直到后面才修正。
英文原文
Not a fan of $CBRS, especially at ~$90B-100B MC valuations. But I do like the company. There’s a lot of short term valuation disconnects with float dynamics after IPO as seen with $CRCL or $BULL though. So would not be surprised if it ends up trading at absurd valuations for a short time until things correct.
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不接受 CRBS 在 700 亿美元估值下的价格
@TheMarathon8320 我喜欢 $CRBS，但在 700 亿美元估值下不喜欢，所以不行
英文原文
@TheMarathon8320 I like $CRBS but not at a $70B valuation, so nope
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惊讶某标的现在估值比 FOCI 还高
@zephyr_z9 我其实很惊讶它现在的估值比 foci 还高。 https://t.co/oXeBZHFhn8
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 I’m surprised it has a higher valuation now than foci tho https://t.co/oXeBZHFhn8
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看好 FOCI 在未来两年大幅跑赢
说实话，我预计 FOCI（3363）在接下来两年会远远打爆预期。 这个价位对我来说是中期非常高置信度的持仓。 因为他们预计会成为 $NVDA 和 $TSM 的领先供应商，而且经常被提到是支撑 2028 年 $91B+ CPO TAM 的关键瓶颈（GS）。 太离谱了：一个推动规模化所必需的关键 CPO 瓶颈，市值只有 30 亿美元；而 LightWave Logic 这种还在开发阶段的公司，市值也差不多有 27 亿美元。
英文原文
Honestly I’m expecting FOCI (3363) to blow away projections over next two years. It’s a pretty high conviction position for me medium term at this level. Since they’re expected to be the leading supplier to $NVDA and $TSM and get frequently cited as a bottleneck for that $91B+ 2028 CPO TAM (GS). Insane how it’s $3B MC as a critical CPO bottleneck required for scale, while LightWave Logic literally has around the same valuation at $2.7B in development stage.
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看好 Harmonic Drive 的人形机器人敞口
我觉得 Harmonic Drive（6324）是 GS research report 里列出来的人形机器人敞口里比较好的一个，估值大约 40 亿美元。 我个人也买了一些，作为敞口。 中国竞争对手也许会被用于大规模生产。 但我个人更偏好投资西方供应链，并把它们扶起来。
英文原文
Imo harmonic drive (6324) one of the better humanoid exposure names at $4B valuation listed in GS research report. Personally I picked some up for exposure. Chinese competitors might be used for mass production. But personal preference in investing in Western supply chains + build them up.
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认为 Amazon 在机器人领域被严重低估
@Dog_Ziller 我其实觉得 $AMZN 的机器人业务被严重低估了。 因为它立刻就能通过自动化降低 opex 和 headcount，带来实际收益。 至于通用人形机器人，$TSLA、Unitree、Figure、Boston Dynamics、Agibot、Agility 这些名字应该都会表现不错。
英文原文
@Dog_Ziller I actually think $AMZN for robotics is extremely underrated. Since since there’s immediate practical upside to lower opex + headcount for automation. But for general purpose $TSLA, Unitree, Figure, Boston Dynamics, Agibot, Agility, and others should do well.
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总结 photonics 当天暴涨说明仍在早期
光子这一天也太疯狂了。 $SIVE 涨 31.3% $TSEM 涨 23.1% $AAOI 涨 20.01%。 这看起来很多……但这只说明你还站在下一轮超级周期的早期，而且后面还有很大空间。 X 上很多人会问：$SNDK 之后是什么？ 就是这些。 https://t.co/jTeHpYtf0n
英文原文
What an insane day for photonics. $SIVE up 31.3% $TSEM up 23.1% $AAOI 20.01%. It feels like a lot… but this just means you’re early to the next supercycle and there’s a lot of room to go. Lot of people on X ask what’s next after $SNDK? Here they are. https://t.co/jTeHpYtf0n
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强调 POET 从 6 美元到 14 美元的三位数收益
@MajorOcelot45 我只是看结果，这些都是粉丝高置信度的建议。 这里提到 $POET 时才 6 美元，现在已经 14 美元了，所以一个月三位数回报，没什么好争的……
英文原文
@MajorOcelot45 I’m only looking at results, these are follower high conviction suggestions. $POET was mentioned at $6 here, it’s $14 now, so can’t argue with triple digit returns in a month…
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澄清$TSEM与MOCVD/SIPh扩产逻辑无关
它们根本就不是，也没有半点关联。我真不明白为什么老是有这些事后诸葛亮式的评论，随随便便抛出一堆股票代码，还附带一堆错误的观点。它们不会随着下游SiPh(硅光子)体量而扩展，$TSEM跟MOCVD资本开支毫无关系？它们甚至都不买MOCVD设备？
英文原文
They're literally aren't and have 0 affiliation. I'm not sure why I keep getting these backseat comments throwing out random tickers with wrong ideas. They don't scale with downstream SiPh volume, $TSEM has nothing to do with MOCVD capex? They don't even buy MOCVD equipment?
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NBIS 财报强劲并大幅超预期
$NBIS 的财报非常亮眼，现在盘前已经交易到 200 美元以上。 他们重申 2026 年 70-90 亿美元 ARR、40% 调整后 EBITDA margin 预期，远超市场预期。 4 GW 已签约产能，$NVDA 通过扎实的融资结构提供了 63 亿美元资本支持。 很高兴我高置信度的 Neocloud 持仓表现这么好，也很高兴管理层执行得这么出色。 用 Jensen 的话说：“Nebius 会照顾好你们的。”
英文原文
$NBIS earnings were stellar and it’s now trading $200+ premarket. Reiterated $7-9B ARR in 2026. 40% adj. EBITDA margin projections, which is vastly outperforming expectations. 4 GW contracted capacity. $6.3B capital secured by $NVDA off solid financial offering structures. Glad my high conviction Neocloud pick is performing wonders and happy management is executing so well. In the words of Jensen: “Nebius will take care of you”
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MSCI 小盘股纳入对 SIVE 是重大利好
哇，$SIVE 被纳入 MSCI Global Small Cap Index。 这极度利好，因为随着市值变大，会触发更多被动资金流入。 再平衡会在 5 月 29 日进行。
英文原文
Wow, $SIVE to be listed in the MSCI Global Small Cap Index. This is overwhelmly positively as it triggers more passive inflows as the MC grows. Rebalancing takes places May 29th.
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Sivers半导体因美国机构入主和$LITE系高管加持，NASDAQ上市有望加速。
为了让事情变得更加有趣。 $SIVE由UC Berkeley的CEO们和$LITE的前高管们运营。 而且股权结构表现在已被美国机构/投资者控制。 我预计NASDAQ上市进程会加速，因为美国机构非常青睐这样的高管团队+股权结构。 美国/硅谷现在正在快速推进一家瑞典名义的光子学公司。
英文原文
To make things even spicier. $SIVE is run by UC Berkeley CEOs and $LITE executives. And the ownership cab table is now controlled by American institutions/investors. I’d expect things to speed up on NASDAQ listing as American institutions are heavy fond of executive teams + cap tables like this. US/Silicon Valley is now speedrunning a Swedish in name photonics company.
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SIVE 还在欧洲交易，希望尽快美股化
@softmaxedx 对，像 $SIVE 这种名字现在还在欧洲交易，遗憾的是还受瑞典本地市场流动性影响。 希望它尽快变成美国公司。
英文原文
@softmaxedx Yep names like $SIVE are still trading in Europe sadly and are affected by regional Swedish market liquidity. Hope it ends up an American company soon enough.
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认为 FLNC 可能因浮筹解锁而错失反弹
@0xResurge 对，时机确实很不幸。 如果公司什么都不做，本来完全可能看到 $FLNC 翻倍。但浮筹解锁会形成很强的心理压制，即使没有人真的卖出。
英文原文
@0xResurge Yeah it’s unfortunate timing. Could have easily seen $FLNC doubling if the company left things alone. But the float unlock creates a ton of psychological overhang, even if nothing is sold.
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解释 FLNC 20M 股增发/解锁带来的短期压力
$FLNC 的 2000 万股发行，如果你想知道为什么它在跌。 这 2000 万股并不算稀释，而是锁定解锁 + 转移，所以只是换手。 真正的问题是条款会让 117,666,665 股里剩余大约 9700 万股的 shelf-registered resale capacity 继续打开，据我所知。 这对短期交易是明显的负面，而且影响很大，因为它扩大了流通盘，也带来了短期卖压。 这就是 overhang…… 我在看到这个意外消息后，确实降低了仓位，因为它改变了我对这个交易的判断。 不过我还是留了一点，想看看后面 hyperscaler deals 会把它带到哪。 我不是在告诉大家该怎么做，只是在呈现公司管理层制造出来的新 overhang。
英文原文
$FLNC 20M share offering if you’re wondering why it’s trading down. The 20M share is not dilution, but share unlock + transfer. So change of hands. The biggest problem was the clause that made active shelf-registered resale capacity of the 117,666,665 shares, so there’s an unlock of the other remaining ~97m shares to my knowledge. Net negative and very material to short term trade ideas. Since it expands the float and it introduces short term selling pressure. That’s the overhang… I personally cut concentration on the surprising news since it’s changes my trade idea with the float structure. But holding some anyway to see where it heads after hyperscaler deals. Definitely not telling people what to do, presenting new material overhang created by company management.
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Auros 基本面未变，等下半年量产爬坡
@SharkSociety_ Auros 没什么变化，我在现在价格下依然觉得它有吸引力。现在只是等 SK Hynix / Samsung 在 H2 某个时候通过认证后开始放量。 在那之前大概率还会有波动。
英文原文
@SharkSociety_ Nothings changed with Auros and I find it compelling at current prices. It's just waiting on SK Hynix/Samsung volume ramp sometime H2 from qualification right now. There's probably going to be volatility up until then.
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为上纳斯达克而稀释一点点反而利好 SIVE
为了登陆 NASDAQ 稀释 2.5%，对 $SIVE 来说其实非常看多；我看到它在美国市场交易后会走向 30 亿美元以上市值。 我认为它现在价格被低估了，只是还被瑞典本地市场限制着。 我个人不太明白为什么 $LWLG 和 $POET 能值 23 亿到 26 亿美元，而 Sivers 只大约 15 亿美元，却在给大量 hyperscaler 供应商供货。
英文原文
The 2.5% dilution to get listed on NASDAQ is actually extremely bullish with $SIVE, and I see it heading to $3B+ once its trading on US markets. I think it's undervalued at current prices, but just limited by local Swedish markets right now. I'm personally not sure how $LWLG and $POET are worth $2.3B - $2.6B while Sivers is ~$1.5B supplying to a vast amount of hyperscaler suppliers.