个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2359 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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IBKR 开始支持韩国股票
哇，不会吧。 $IBKR 现在已经有韩国股票了。 这会很有意思，我之前有很多想法都没法做多。
英文原文
Woah no way. $IBKR has Korean stocks now. This is going to be fun, I had a lot of ideas in mind I couldn’t long.
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MTSI 参股 IQE 怎么会看空
@JeremyMaine4 $MTSI 想买下 $IQE 的债务并成为战略投资者？这怎么可能是利空。
英文原文
@JeremyMaine4 $MTSI plans to buy $IQE out of debt and be a strategic investor? How could this be bearish.
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MTSI 接手 IQE 是大利好
@LNMDad $MTSI 接手 $IQE 的债务并成为战略投资者，这非常正面。
英文原文
@LNMDad This is incredibly positive having $MTSI take $IQE out of debt and be a strategic investor.
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SIVE 逻辑仍然完整
不，$SIVE 的 thesis 仍然完全成立，我还是认为它被低估了。 其中很大一部分原本是建立在 $JBL 1.6T 作为连接 CPO 放量的桥梁上。 但 $AMD 的 CPO 最终去了 $GFS，这件事把公司的风险大幅降下来了。再加上 $AAPL 的硅光市场，市场还没意识到。 我现在其实预期 $MRVL 也会像 $JBL 那样直接从 Sivers 采购。不过他们会先多来源，然后在买激光器之后把封装 IP 那一层垂直整合掉。 这长期看甚至可能比通过一个封装合作伙伴多一跳更能提升估值——像 Jabil、Marvell 这种直接接 T1 客户的方式。
英文原文
Nope, $SIVE thesis is fully in-tact and I still think it's undervalued. Lot of it was based on $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap into CPO ramp. But having $AMD CPO go with $GFS de-risked the company quite a massive amount. Then there's $AAPL SiPH markets don't know about yet. I'm honestly expecting $MRVL to buy directly from Sivers now like what $JBL did. But just multi-source + vertically integrate the packaging IP side of thing after buying lasers. That actually might increase the valuations more long term (direct to T1 like Jabil, Marvell) than one-hop through a packaging partner.
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SIVE 业务很分散
哦，$SIVE 肯定没问题，因为它们已经高度多元化了。 它们大概基本上服务所有人： -> $AAPL 硅光 -> $JBL（可能最大） -> $AMD CPO 项目配合 $GFS， -> Ayar -> Alchip/GUC 和其他 ASIC 设计商 -> O-Net ELS 还有其他客户。虽然这会在实质上让 2028-2029 年后期的预测稍微往后推一些（比如 Q4 5 亿美元、2029 年 10 亿美元）。 但如果它们的光源最终以某种方式进了 Marvell，我也不会惊讶。
英文原文
Oh $SIVE is definitely fine, since they're vastly diversified. They likely basically serve everyone: -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics -> $JBL (probably largest) -> $AMD CPO program with $GFS, -> Ayar -> Alchip/GUC and other ASIC designers -> O-Net ELS amongst others. Though this does materially slow later 2028-2029 projections a bit (eg. $500m Q4 Celestial, $1B 2029). But wouldn't be surprised if their light source ends up in Marvell one way or another.
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SIVE 估值与客户映射
我现在给 $SIVE 的估值是 20 亿美元以上，并且认为它们明年能到 100 亿美元以上……2028 年还会更多。 它们在量产爬坡前可能已经有的用户： - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T 光模块 - $AAPL 硅光 - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS 还不算其他未确认的名字。 对一家 11 亿美元估值的激光公司来说，这简直离谱。甚至还没算上 TAM 扩张，比如新的超大规模云厂商客户，或者 $GOOGL / 三星跟着苹果走。 而且……“执行不确定性”其实已经被转嫁给 Win Semi，也就是 $AVGO 的代工方，所以这件事很让人安心。
英文原文
I value $SIVE $2B+ today, and think they can hit $10B+ next year... and more in 2028. Their likely existing users before volume ramp: - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T Optical Transcivers - $AAPL Silicon Photonics - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS Not including other unconfirmed ones. This is unholy coming from a laser company at a $1.1B valuation. And not even considering TAM expansion like new hyperscaler customers or $GOOGL / Samsung following Apple. Also... "execution uncertainty" is literally just passed along to Win Semi, the foundry for $AVGO, so this is chilling.
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SIVE 像迷你版 LITE
@piyush1337 对，$SIVE 就像迷你版 $LITE。 $AAPL Watch 如果/当真的推出，对 Sivers 收入的拉动可能会很大，因为他们每年大约能做 5000 万台。
英文原文
@piyush1337 Yeah $SIVE is like a mini $LITE. $AAPL Watch if/when it gets released is likely going to massive for Sivers revenue given they do ~50M units/year.
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SIVE 仍被严重低估
我还是觉得 $SIVE 被严重低估了。 市场好像只是慢慢开始意识到，它可能是 $AMD 的激光供应商？ 顺便说一句，在 $GFS 的演示材料里，唯一两家公开的激光公司就是 $SIVE 和 $LITE……而 AMD 的 CPO 项目最终走的是 GFS。 而且在 Ayar 的网站上，$SIVE 是唯一还留在上面、和 GFS 并列的公司，因为他们悄悄把 $LITE 和 $MTSI 从合作伙伴板块删掉了。 AlChip 和 GUC 也正好都是超大规模云厂商供应商里的大角色。 感觉 Sivers 的激光明年会出现在很多地方。
英文原文
Still think $SIVE is vastly undiscovered. Feels like markets are only slowly starting to realize the likely laser supplier for $AMD? The only two public laser companies were $SIVE and $LITE on the $GFS presentation by the way…. after AMD’s CPO program went the way with GFS. And $SIVE is the only one left alongside GFS on Ayar’s website after they silently removed $LITE and $MTSI from their partner section. AlChip and GUC also happen to be pretty big for hyperscaler suppliers too.. Feels like Sivers lasers are going to end up everywhere next year.
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DNB 为 SIVE 估值发声
赞同，也很高兴看到欧洲领先银行之一 DNB 跟我一起出来为 $SIVE 的估值辩护。 我还是认为，随着激光业务按比例扩张，$SIVE 一年内可以到 100 亿美元市值。其增长会按以下规模推进： - $AAPL Watch - $JBL 1.6T 量产 - $MRVL CPO 量产 - Ayar 量产 - $POET 量产 这取决于它们如何从认证阶段走向量产爬坡。 既然 Sivers 正在给这个领域里下一代 1.6T / CPO 玩家供应激光器（进入类似 $AMD、$NVDA、$AMZN、$MSFT 这样的供应链），那就是已经存在的玩家了，市值大约 9.9 亿美元而已。还没算 TAM 扩张或者更多合作出现。 尤其现在有了纳斯达克上市，美国机构会提前按 12 个月的前瞻来定价，而欧洲本地估值主要看过去 12 个月。 银行通常会给出很保守的目标（比如 3 年 10 倍），但我确实看到这家公司很快可能变成下一个 $LITE。 欧洲应该拥抱自己公司为超大规模云厂商供货所带来的正和增长。 因为它们的前沿公司会通过税收、经济增长和就业增长回馈本地。
英文原文
Agreed, and glad DNB, one of Europe's leading banks, went out to defend $SIVE valuations alongside me. I still think $SIVE can reach $10B MC in 1 year time as their laser growth scales proportionally to: - $AAPL Watches - $JBL 1.6T Volume - $MRVL CPO Volume - Ayar Volume - $POET Volume Depending on how their qualification plays out into volume ramp. As Sivers supply lasers to all the next generation of 1.6T/CPO players in the space (into ~ $AMD, $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT type supply chains). These are EXISTING players at a ~990M MC. Not even including TAM expansion or more partnerships coming up. Especially now with NASDAQ listing, US institutions are forward looking and price in ~12M ahead of time, compared local European valuations that mainly look at previous 12 months. Banks usually provide very conservative targets (eg. 3 years for a 10x), but I do see potential for this company to be the next $LITE very soon. Europe should embrace positive-sum growth of their own companies that supply to hyperscalers. As their frontier companies provide back to locals through taxes, economic growth, and job growth.
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IREN 社区编造 Anthropic 交易
@dinxnd_ 投资和因为 $IREN 社区想编造一笔和 Anthropic 的交易而去投资，是有区别的。 然后再拉着别人去买入正在进行的稀释。
英文原文
@dinxnd_ There’s a difference in investing and investing because the $IREN community wanted to make up completely false information about a deal with Anthropic. Then get others to buy into active dilution.
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别为假消息辩护
@PrettyNoice 去淡化那些为了让散户买入正在进行的 ATM 而编造超大规模云厂商交易假消息的人？ 目的就是在吸引了数百万浏览量后，让散户冲进去接盘。
英文原文
@PrettyNoice Downplaying folks who make up materially false information about hyperscaler deals? To get retail investors to buy into active ATMs after hitting millions of views?
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IREN 社区编造信息
我说 $IREN 社区成员 IQ 很低，可不是开玩笑。 他们确实在编造信息，好让别人继续买入正在进行的稀释。 这个社区会散布这种胡话去骗新的散户，然后一个月后再来一轮，继续他们那 60 亿美元的 ATM。 提示：Anthropic 和 $IREN 之间根本没有交易。 这简直是在侮辱那些真正做 OSINT / 供应链映射的人。
英文原文
I wasn't joking when I said $IREN community members have low IQ. Since they literally have to fabricate information get people to get others to buy into active dilution. The community shares this sort of BS to convince new retail investors, then does another one a month later for their active $6B ATM. Hint: there's no deal with Anthropic or $IREN. It's an insult to anyone who actually does OSINT/Supply Chain mapping.
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IREN 假交易与拉盘
@Lazarus_Capital $IREN 社区真的编造了一笔和 Anthropic 的假交易，想在晨间公告前把股价拉起来。 然后他们的董事会成员也一直在编造信息，等那只带着 ATM 的股票暴跌后又把内容删掉。
英文原文
@Lazarus_Capital $IREN community members literally fabricated a false deal with Anthropic to pump stock prices ahead of a Morning announcement. Then their board member fabricates information all the time then deletes it after the stock that has an ATM going on crashes.
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没在高 conviction 上看错过
@ISITrading2717 不，我坚持我说的话。 到现在为止，我在 $HOOD、$RKLB、$TSM、$AAOI、$AEHR、$SIVE 这些高 conviction 标的上都没看错过。 现在也包括 $IREN 社区成员 IQ。
英文原文
@ISITrading2717 Nope, I stand by my words. I haven’t been wrong on any high conviction stock yet from $HOOD, $RKLB, $TSM, $AAOI, $AEHR, $SIVE. And now $IREN community member IQ.
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回顾低价时逆势建仓RKLB、HOOD、SIVE的经历，忽视媒体噪音，专注公司基本面。
我在10美元左右做多$RKLB，因为他们的可重复使用火箭(reusable rocket)成功率。尽管银行/分析师声称它会崩盘。 我在10美元左右做多$HOOD，因为他们庞大的用户群和向其他业务领域的TAM扩张。 我做多$SIVE，因为他们的激光技术看起来被设计进了$AAPL、$MRVL、$JBL和其他行业领导者，尽管公司规模很小。 媒体在这些公司规模小时都反对它们。但只需要忽略那些噪音。
英文原文
I was long $RKLB in the 10's, because of their reusable rocket success rate. Despite banks/analysts claiming it would crash. I was long $HOOD in the 10's because of their massive consumer base and TAM expansion into other segments. I'm long $SIVE because their lasers look designed into $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, and other sector leaders despite being so small. Media was against all of them while they were small. But just need to look past that noise.
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LWLG 式研发合作加稀释
这相当负面。是大新闻，但本质上是那种没有营收的研发合作，和 $LWLG、$TSEM 那类差不多。 他们还有一个巨额稀释投票，3 周左右会把 4500 万股增到 9500 万股，我对这种大幅稀释周期非常反感。 不过我预计大家最后还是会因为 FOMO / 新闻去买。
英文原文
Pretty negative. It's big news, but a no-revenue R&D partnership like $LWLG and $TSEM. They have a massive dilution vote from 45m -> 95m shares in 2-3 weeks as well, and I have an extreme distaste for massive dilution cycles. But I expect people to just buy into the fomo/news anyway.
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SIVE 让我想起早年的 AMD
@H0M3b 我看 $AMD 的时候，它十年前还在 3.5 美元附近，但大家都说他们打不过 $INTC。 还总说英特尔随时都能把他们干掉。 我对 $SIVE 和 $LITE 也有点类似的感觉？不过走着看吧。
英文原文
@H0M3b $AMD was $3.5 almost a decade ago when I was looking at it but everyone kept telling me they couldn't compete with $INTC. And that Intel could just beat them anytime. Kinda feeling the same with $SIVE and $LITE? But we'll see.
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SOI 估值还没到 40B
@TLEROY5 我不认为 $SOI 会变成 400 亿美元公司，也许一年后会到 80 亿到 120 亿美元。
英文原文
@TLEROY5 I don't see $SOI becoming a $40B company, maybe $~8B-12B in a year.
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IQE 已经大涨很多
@miss_middletonn 自从我发帖之后，$IQE 已经涨了大约 260%。路上肯定会有波动，但还没到特别严重的程度。
英文原文
@miss_middletonn $IQE is up like ~260% since I posted. There's going to be volatility along the way, but nothing too material.
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SOI 目前还只涨了 160%
@TLEROY5 $SOI 到现在也就涨了大约 160%。
英文原文
@TLEROY5 $SOI is only up like 160% so far.
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SIVE 还能再涨很多
听到了吗，匿名网友？ $SIVE 已经涨了 600%+。 但一年后它从这里再翻 10 倍也不是不可能……前提是 $AAPL、$JBL 和 $MRVL 在 2027 年都需要大规模量产他们的激光器。 这太夸张了。 可能是我继 $AXTI 之后最传奇的一篇 thesis 帖。
英文原文
Did you listen anon? The fact that $SIVE is up 600%+. But still can 10x from here in a year... once ~ $AAPL, $JBL, and $MRVL require mass production of their lasers in 2027. Is incredible. Probably my most legendary thesis post since $AXTI. https://t.co/8rOZNdV9bX
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指出AMSC和PLPC虽为行政令受益股，但涨幅有限，不可能单日暴涨48%。
@Yolo365247isme 我确实也把$AMSC和$PLPC列为行政令受益股，但 conviction 没有那么高。 我的意思是 AMSC 今天涨了 8.58%，PLPC 涨了 6.37%，它们不可能一天就涨 48%。
英文原文
@Yolo365247isme I do have $AMSC and $PLPC as the executive order beneficiaries as well but not as high conviction. I mean AMSC is up 8.58% and PLPC is up 6.37% today, they don’t just go up 48% in a day.
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HPS.A 已经很强
如果你听了 Optimus Prime…… 那你现在持有 $HPS.A 三周就已经涨了 47%。 你听了吗，匿名网友？ https://t.co/dUWQBpPu0y
英文原文
If you listened to Optimus Prime… You’d be up 47% in just 3 weeks with $HPS.A. Did you listen to Optimus anon? https://t.co/dUWQBpPu0y
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AXTI 又回来了
@offermemoneyXYZ 对，我之前在 $AXTI 上也有点回撤，不过很高兴它又回到 1057% 的收益了…… https://t.co/VU9achD3MW
英文原文
@offermemoneyXYZ Yeah, I was down a bit on $AXTI but glad it’s back at 1057% gains… https://t.co/VU9achD3MW
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IQE 仍在持有
@UlquiorraRises 不？我还拿着 $IQE，只是从很高的位置回落后，依然还剩 246% 的收益。 https://t.co/eAXSp0sb75
英文原文
@UlquiorraRises No? I’m still holding $IQE just down a lot to a small 246% gain https://t.co/eAXSp0sb75
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AAPL 供应链假设
@fredrikmob49943 你好，瑞典本地朋友。如果不是 $AAPL： 请你给我举一个别的美国财富 100 强公司（排除三星后）的例子，它每年能出货 5000 万台以上…… 那么它就能匹配 $SIVE 的研发激光规格和应用，对吧？
英文原文
@fredrikmob49943 Hi Swedish local. If it's not $AAPL: Please name me another US Fortune 100 company (not Samsung by elimination) shipping 50M+ units yearly... That fits $SIVE R&D laser specs + applications then?
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AAPL 但不确认供应链
@sharion73 @veggiepoultry @StormDirac $AAPL 不会确认 BOM 以及供应链里的上游供应商。但我几乎 100% 确定，可能 99%。 你也许可以再举一个每年出货 5000 万台以上、并且符合他们研发激光规格和应用场景的消费硬件公司？
英文原文
@sharion73 @veggiepoultry @StormDirac $AAPL won't confirm BOM and upstream vendors in their supply chain. But almost 100% sure, maybe 99%. Maybe you can name another consumer hardware company shipping 50M+ units yearly that fits their R&D laser specs + applications?
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上市时点和量产催化
我不知道那是谁。我没有泄露任何东西，Sivers 管理层一直都想在美国上市，从 $BYNO 这件事就能看出来，而且他们也说会继续尝试。 紧接着不久就出了新闻，这纯属巧合，挺好笑的，我当时完全没料到，也不知道那回事。 不过我确实预计，量产爬坡 / 市值提升会成为催化剂，只是时间点我是在猜。
英文原文
No clue who that is. I didn't leak anything, Sivers management has always been trying to get listed in the US as seen with $BYNO and said they'd keep trying. Hilarious coincidence with news timing not too long after, was unexpected and didn't know about that. Expected volume uptick / MC increase to be a catalyst though around guessing timing.
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IREN 仍然看空
@BitcoinAIGuy 我现在仍然看空 $IREN，因为有 60 亿美元 ATM 的悬压，哪怕市场传言他们在做 colo 也是如此。我去年确实做多过，你知道的。
英文原文
@BitcoinAIGuy I’m still bearish on $IREN due to $6B ATM overhang, even if there’s rumors they’re doing colo. I was long last year you know.
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LULU 不该找 Nike 老将
只是个想法……也许别请一个 $NKE 的“老将”来领导 $LULU 的品牌重启？ 这就像 PayPal 去请前 HP 的 CEO 一样。 我真的无语了。 https://t.co/GAE7
英文原文
Just a thought… Maybe don’t hire a $NKE “veteran” to lead the $LULU brand revival? It’s the equivalent of PayPal hiring the former HP CEO. I’m just speechless. https://t.co/GAE7pnx8qJ