业绩复盘
收益回顾、持仓表现、对错总结 · 共 481 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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称伊朗停火消息带动市场整体转绿。
如果你在想为什么从 $AAOI 到 $RKLB 一切突然都变绿了： 特朗普刚刚同意伊朗停火两周。
英文原文
If you're wondering why everything just ticked green from $AAOI to $RKLB: Trump just agreed to a 2 week Iran Ceasefire. https://t.co/znW8nnzW6S
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认为 AAOI 的 ATM 发行窗口可能已经结束，自己早期建仓获得了 4 倍回报。
@Kapstahoon 感觉 $AAOI 的 ATM 发行窗口已经结束了，因为它现在都涨到 126 美元了。 我第一次做多大概是在 30 美元附近，所以这又是一个 4 倍的收益。可惜我的仓位集中度不高，大部分加仓是在 60-80 美元附近。
英文原文
@Kapstahoon Feels like the $AAOI ATM has closed since it’s trading at $126 now. I first longed around $30 so that’s another 4x added to the list. My concentration was low unfortunately, and heavier adds around $60-80. https://t.co/uV2eokOKSW
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回顾 LITE 四个月内大涨，并表示更偏好激光股做光子学敞口。
看到自己的 thesis 实时兑现，真的会有一种很自豪的感觉。 $LITE 从 371 美元涨到 836 美元，只用了过去 4 个月。 在宏观这么差的情况下，这对一家 580 亿美元市值的公司来说也不算差吧？ 这还是在指数和很多个股都下跌、而像 $POET 这样的光子股以及像 $RDDT 这样的个股年初至今都在跌的时候。 如果要做光子学敞口，我最喜欢的是激光公司，比如 $SIVE、$AAOI 和 Lumentum。 如果宏观环境更好，我预计很多公司的表现会比现在更强。
英文原文
I get a sense of pride when I see a thesis playing out well real time. $LITE $371 -> $836 in the last 4 months. Not bad for a $58B company despite macro? This is while indexes and individual stocks. And photonic stocks like $POET and individual stocks like $RDDT dropped YTD. I tend to like laser companies the most from $SIVE, $AAOI, and Lumentum for photonics exposure. And in a better macro environment, I expect many of them to be up more than they are now.
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为自己在 LITE 和 AAOI 上的判断兑现而高兴。
@SinnerReformed1 很高兴 $LITE 和 $AAOI 都让你赚到了！ 是啊，市场大部分都在跌，但如果你挑对了个股赢家，确实有可能跑赢。
英文原文
@SinnerReformed1 Glad to hear $LITE and $AAOI are treating you well! Yeah most of the market is crashing, but if you pick individual winners it’s possible to outperform. https://t.co/LWsZjwnwhH
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承认 SOI 近期涨幅一般，并指出并非所有票都能像 LITE、AEHR、AAOI 那样强。
@Michael_Tran_90 是啊，$SOI 自从我买入以来也就涨了 11% 左右，挺遗憾的。 并不是所有票在这种宏观环境下都能像 $LITE、$AEHR 或 $AAOI 那样强势跑赢。
英文原文
@Michael_Tran_90 Yeah, $SOI is only up 11% from when I bought unfortunately. Not everything hard-outperforms this macro climate like $LITE, $AEHR, or $AAOI.
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回顾 TSEM 从横盘到三周翻倍，怀疑机构开始跟单。
我还是觉得 $TSEM 从年初到现在整年都横着走这件事挺好笑的。 我一做多，它现在三周里就快翻倍了。 这可是个 220 亿美元+ 的股票（体量接近 $NBIS）。 也许机构开始跟单了？
英文原文
I still find it funny $TSEM was flat the entire year to date. I go long and now it’s close to doubling in 3 weeks. This is a $22B+ stock BTW (close to $NBIS size). Maybe institutions started copy trading? https://t.co/kUqw9b6Ksk
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批评 0DTE 亏光故事，强调要学会长期复利而不是一日赌局。
$RDDT 现在最火的故事就是这个： -> 有人拿着 30 万美元起步 -> 在 2025 年 4 月底部靠个股运气赚到了钱 -> 账户做到了 300 万美元，还说自己实现了财务自由 -> 然后拿去玩 $SPY 的 0DTE 期权 -> 最后把 300 万变成了 5 万。 通常我会讲一个吸取教训的故事，但这次真的只是蠢。 真心别再碰 0dte 期权了。 就算他把钱全仓押到 Jim Cramer 最喜欢的股票 $MRVL，上几年也许都能变成 600 万。 世代财富最好的教训是看看 Nancy Pelosi。 如果你真要做期权，就看看他们怎么在 $AVGO 到 $NVDA 上长期复利。 不是玩一天的窗口。
英文原文
The most viral story on $RDDT right now: -> Guy started with $300,000 -> Gets lucky with individual names at April 2025 bottom -> Runs it up to $3,000,000 and claims they had financial freedom -> Proceeds to do 0DTE options on $SPY -> Turned $3M -> $50k. Usually I give a lesson learned type story but this is just stupid? Legit stop touching 0dte options. Even if they full ported it into Jim Cramer’s favorite stock $MRVL, probably would have been $6M in 2-3 years. The best lesson of generational wealth is looking at Nancy Pelosi. If you do options, look at how their on $AVGO to $NVDA keep compounding over time. Not one day windows.
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回忆自己在 Raiblocks 上曾获得几千倍回报。
@tomhou101 说到加密，我最大的回报其实是 2018 年 Raiblocks 那波，涨了几千倍。
英文原文
@tomhou101 Speaking of crypto, my biggest return was actually in Raiblocks when it went up like few thousand % in 2018
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回顾自己两年回报超过 5000%，并列出押中的多个产业链主题。
我刚刚意识到……上周我的回报已经到了 5,118.02%。 不到 2 年，5000%+ 还不错吧？ 即使考虑到通胀，现在 5 美元长三明治都在涨价，也挺难跟上。 我前面抢跑的主要方向包括： -> $MSTR 用来博减半 -> $RKLB 和 $HOOD 用来博太空 / 金融科技行情 -> $GOOGL 和 $TSM 用来博大盘科技行情 -> 三星、SK 海力士、亚洲股票，用来博存储 -> $LITE、$AXTI 和 $COHR，用来博 EML / 光子学 -> $SOI、$SIVE、$AEHR、$TSEM、Win，用来博 CW / SiPh / CPO 中间也有一些副业，比如委内瑞拉自然资源公司和无人机（结果没那么好）。 不过总体来说，我对市场接下来会发生什么的判断还算不错。 而且我确实认为光子学扩产会是下一波，尤其是聚焦 CW 激光公司、衬底、测试和晶圆代工。
英文原文
I just realized… hit 5,118.02% returns last week. 5000%+ not too bad in <2 years? Hard to keep up with $5 footlong sandwich inflation even after front running: -> $MSTR for halving -> $RKLB and $HOOD for space/fintech rally -> $GOOGL and $TSM for large cap rally -> Samsung, SK Hynix, Asian equities for memory -> $LITE, $AXTI, and $COHR for EML/photonics -> $SOI, $SIVE, $AEHR, $TSEM, Win for CW/SiPH/CPO. Some side quests here and there with Venezuelan natural resource companies and drones (that didn’t turn out as well). But generally market read has been decent so far on what’s coming next. And I do think scale up photonics is next, especially focusing on CW laser companies, substrates, testing and foundries.
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列出一篮子“粉丝最爱”的高波动候选 ETF 组合。
Serenity 粉丝最爱的股票：抛物线增长 ETF。 有史以来最令人期待的 ETF： $TRT - $5.88 $HGRAF - $4.49 $SIVE - 9.9 SEK $QURE - $17.21 $AEHR - $45.08 $ENVX - $5.07 $ASPI - $4.2 $EONR - $11.79 $LPK.DE - 6.59 欧元 $MITK - $13.9 $EQR.AX - 0.315 澳元 $WATT - $15.8 $VLN - $1.16 $BZAI - $1.79 $TMC - $4.59 $ALCJ - $74.57 $POET - $6.11 $AAOI - $108.86 $ADUR - $10.37 $P4O.DE - 6.85 欧元 $PLAB - $40.87 $FLY - $33.16 $LASR - $60.7 $AL2SI - 28.70 欧元 $ENAFF - $1.71 $VPG - $44.7 $EOS.AX - $9.00 我没听说过这里面三分之一的名字，但如果我的关注者们对某只票有很高的 conviction，觉得它能 10 倍…… 那我也是。
英文原文
Serenity's Followers Favorite Stock Parabolic Growth ETF: The most anticipated ETF of all time: $TRT - $5.88 $HGRAF - $4.49 $SIVE - 9.9 SEK $QURE - $17.21 $AEHR - $45.08 $ENVX - $5.07 $ASPI - $4.2 $EONR - $11.79 $LPK.DE - 6.59 EUR $MITK - $13.9 $EQR.AX - .315 AUD $WATT - $15.8 $VLN - $1.16 $BZAI - $1.79 $TMC - $4.59 $ALCJ - $74.57 $POET - $6.11 $AAOI - $108.86 $ADUR - $10.37 $P4O.DE - 6.85 EUR $PLAB - $40.87 $FLY - $33.16 $LASR - $60.7 $AL2SI - 28.70 EUR $ENAFF - $1.71 $VPG - $44.7 $EOS.AX - $9.00 I haven't heard of 1/3rd of these names, but if my followers have high conviction that their name will 10x... So do I.
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说 NBIS 今天上涨而 IREN 仍偏弱，可能是稀释压制。
@thekriskay 感谢你告诉我 newsletter 的情况。对，今天 $NBIS 涨了 5%+，而 $IREN 还是绿的（可能是因为稀释压住了上行空间）。
英文原文
@thekriskay Good to know about the newsletter. Yeah $NBIS is up 5%+ today while $IREN is still red (possibly because of dilution capping upside).
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复盘 AAOI 在无重大新闻下上涨 25%+，并强调仓位和信念管理。
而且……$AAOI 从 81 美元涨到 101.26 美元，单日 +25.43%，还没有什么实质性新闻。 也许 Edgewater 那句“光学需求正在指数级增长”的评论也帮了点忙。 不过有几个教训： - 不要靠借来的 conviction 活着。 - Jane Street 会带来不必要的波动。 - 如果你晚上睡不着，大概率是仓位配置错了。 散户在底部因为没有基本面原因就清仓，挺可惜的。等涨回去时，他们已经没有仓位了。 股价未来也可能在 80 和 120 之间来回震荡，谁知道呢。 但中长期我还是有 conviction，觉得 $AAOI 能把执行落地，应该值得比现在的市值高得多。
英文原文
And... $AAOI +25.43% from $81 -> $101.26 off no material news. Maybe the Edgewater comment about "optical demand growing exponentially" helped a bit too. But few lessons to learn: - don't live on borrowed conviction. - Jane Street adds unnecessary volatility. - If you can't sleep at night, you're sizing portfolio concentration wrong. It's unfortunate when retail liquidates their positions at the bottom for no fundamental reason. Then on the way back up, they no longer have positions. Could always keep ping ponging between $80 and $120, who knows. But mid-long term, I have conviction $AAOI can execute, should be worth much higher than the current MC.
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批评 IREN 大幅稀释，认为 NBIS 通过差异化和客户关系更强。
我到现在还是想不通，为什么还有人会在 $IREN 上“逢低买入”。 他们搞了 60 亿美元的 ATM，把股份稀释后又卖进公开市场……还以为这会推高股价。 与此同时，$NBIS 通过差异化拿到了更多超大规模客户订单，还得到了 $NVDA 的支持。 IREN 两年前还有的那点 GW 原始资产护城河，现在几乎已经没了。 在 60 亿美元结构性稀释持续压制的情况下，很难看出这只票还能有多少上涨空间。 等现有股东先被稀释完，再考虑做多会更好。
英文原文
It still baffles me how people are still “Buying the Dip” on $IREN. Amid their $6,000,0000,000 ATM, diluted and sold into the open market. Thinking that it will increase their share price. While $NBIS was able to differentiate themselves and secure more hyperscaler deals + $NVDA backing. $IREN GW raw asset moat they had two years ago is now almost gone. It’s hard to see the stock appreciating much in value when $6,000,000,000 of structural dilution works against you in every rally. Better to wait after current shareholders get diluted first before going long.
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认为 AEHR 132% 的回报证明自己够早，量产信号会进一步验证。
$AEHR 的回报不错，说明极早布局是有回报的，132% 的收益就是证明。 现在有很多超大规模客户 / 光收发器客户在为下一轮超级周期给 Aehr 做资格认证，而且 3 天前来的新 SiPh 客户也是非常积极的消息。 我觉得很快就会看到这些信号如何转化成量产订单。
英文原文
Nice return on $AEHR, pays dividends to be extremely early with that 132% return. Lot of hyperscalers / optical transceiver customers for the next supercycle are qualifying Aehr right now, and the new siph customer 3 days ago is extremely positive news. And I think we'll get insight how that translates to volume orders soon enough.
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说自己正在回敬那些说 thesis 错了的人。
@Mr_Drone 正在回头打脸那些说我 $AXTI 或 $SIVE thesis 错了的人。
英文原文
@Mr_Drone Victory lapping all the haters who said my $AXTI or $SIVE thesis was wrong
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回顾自己一年回报超过 1000%，并列出下一轮光子学与 AI 相关主题。
过去一年里，回报 +1,124.09%，算是稳稳的。 匿名网友，距离靠 AI 逃离永久下层阶级，是不是只剩几年了？ OpenAI 融资 1220 亿美元，足够再把这波行情烧上两年。 而光子学 < $SIVE 到 $AAOI >、$AEHR 的测试、$NBIS 的数据中心，以及从 $AMKR 到 $POET 的先进封装这些新超级周期，才刚刚开始。
英文原文
Modest +1,124.09% return over the past year. Anon, only a few years left to escape the permanent underclass due to AI? OpenAI raising $122B is enough to fuel the rally for another 2 years. And new supercycles from photonics < $SIVE to $AAOI >, testing with $AEHR, $NBIS DCs, and advanced packing from $AMKR to $POET. Is just getting started.
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复盘 RPI 财报后上涨，并指出 2027 年估值仍有空间。
thesis 验证正在发生。 $RPI 财报后上涨 44.76%。 Raspberry Pi 在 2027 年大概还有很长的路要走，市盈率可能在 11-13 倍左右。 2026 年大概在 19-22 倍。 在需求大幅跳升、前瞻增长从预期 14% 提高到 58% 的情况下…… Raspberry Pi 已经成了 OpenClaw 首选的、快速加速的 AI 编排硬件。
英文原文
Thesis validation in effect. $RPI up 44.76% after earnings. Raspberry Pi likely has a long way to go with some ~11-13x p/e projections for 2027. And ~19-22x for 2026. With a massive surge in demand to 58% fwd growth from 14% expected… Raspberry Pi has become the rapidly accelerating AI orchestration hardware of choice for OpenClaw.
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认为自己关于 RPI 的 thesis 被财报验证，媒体和分析师都看错了。
甚至连普通分析师和记者都把 $RPI 叫成了“meme stock”。 我觉得这就是典型的事后偏差：我身边以外的大多数人都否定了这个 thesis。 不管怎样，财报终于验证了它。58% 的同比增长非常出色，我只是一直憋着这口气等财报出来。
英文原文
Even regular analysts called $RPI a "Meme Stock" on top of reporters. Think this is hindsight bias, vast majority of people outside my following dismissed the thesis. Regardless, finally vindicated from earnings. 58% Y/Y growth is phenomenal, just pent up frustration waiting for this report to come out.
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说自己正确看到了 RPI 的基本面变化，而外界曾嘲笑它是 meme。
@QGrowthCap 我就是很烦，X 和社交媒体上所有人都把它叫成“meme stock”。 可我说 $RPI 的基本面在变化，而且我判断对了。 现在他们都闭嘴了，然后才去更新自己对这只 AI fabless 股票的模型，而它当时的前瞻市盈率只有 19 倍。
英文原文
@QGrowthCap Just frustrating everyone on X and social media called it a "meme stock" When I called fundamental changes on $RPI and got it right. Now they're all silent, and then just updated their models on an AI fabless stock trading at fwd 19 P/E.
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强调自己对 RPI 的收入预测被验证，市场随后上修增长预期。
兄弟，这也太离谱了……大家都在质疑我 $RPI，还叫它 “Meme Stock”？？ 我明明预测了 48-55% 的前瞻营收增长，而且是拿基本面支撑的。 可分析师都在说 14-17%，新闻媒体都在喊 “Meme Stock”？？ 结果财报后他们把 $RPI 的同比增长预期上调到了 58%。 完全命中，和 $AXTI 一样被验证了。 尤其是我还预测了行业会有 3-4 倍增长。 现在 $RPI 大约是 19 倍到 23.8 倍前瞻市盈率，而收入加速来自 OpenClaw。
英文原文
Bruh wtf... Everyone was doubting me on $RPI, calling it a "Meme Stock"??? I literally projected 48-55% forward revenue growth and backed it up with fundamentals. While all the analysts were saying 14-17% and news outlets were saying "Meme Stock"?? And they updated $RPI to 58% projected Y/Y growth after earnings. Spot on and vindicated like $AXTI. Especially when I projected 3-4X industry growth estimates. Now $RPI is at ~19x-23.8x fwd p/e, with revenue acceleration due to OpenClaw.
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复盘自己最早关于 RPI / OpenClaw 的预测，以及分析师上修后股价反应。
我最早关于 $RPI 和 OpenClaw 垂直整合的帖子： “但如果需求流入继续，我们可能会看到营收从 14% 增长提高到 48-55% 的温和水平，只要囤货持续。” $RPI 新的分析师预测： 券商把 2026 年 $RPI 的预测从 3.6 亿美元上调到 5.11 亿美元，意味着同比增长 58%。 …… 媒体把我 thesis 里的“meme stock” $RPI，在预测上修后又涨了 27%。
英文原文
My original post on $RPI and OpenClaw vertaim: "But if the demand influx continues, we might see revenue numbers might hit increase from 14% growth to a modest 48-55% if hoarding continues." $RPI New Analyst Projections: The broker raised its 2026 $RPI forecast to $511 million from $360 million, implying 58% year-on-year growth. .... The media labeled "Meme Stock" $RPI from my thesis is up 27% on the projections beat.
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说 VCX 的走势已经验证了自己的判断。
嗯，这走势现在看起来真是验证了我的判断。 $VCX 在 4 天里从 425 -> 110 美元。 我想大多数人其实都预料到了……但我不太懂为什么散户会以为 SpaceX 在高点时值 34 万亿美元。
英文原文
Well this is aging well with $VCX. From $425 -> $110 in 4 days. Think majority of people expected it… but not sure why retail investors thought SpaceX should be valued at $34 trillion at the top. https://t.co/JHURpLJmmq
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看多 IREN 但担心 60 亿 ATM 的结构性稀释，如果融资完成会重新考虑做多。
基本就是这样。我去年一直看多 $IREN。 但因为那 60 亿美元的 ATM，我现在极度看空，原因是结构性压制。可如果他们真能在稀释老股东之后把这笔钱都融到位。 我会考虑再转回做多。 这纯粹就是稀释带来的市场机制……
英文原文
Yes, basically it. I’ve been bullish on $IREN last year. But with the $6B ATM I’m extreme bearish due to structural overhang. But if they manage to raise all that after diluting existing shareholders. I’d consider flipping long again. This is just market mechanics of dilution…
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建议 IREN 这种票割肉离场，去找没有稀释封顶的更好机会。
@0xInitialAce 对像 $IREN 这种票，认亏离场可能更好。 这样你就能去追那些不会被稀释限制上行空间的更好机会。 这只是我个人的两分钱看法，大家完全可以继续当流动性，去接那 60 亿美元的稀释。
英文原文
@0xInitialAce Cutting at a loss might be better with things like $IREN. So you can chase better opportunities that don’t have capped upside from dilution. Just my two cents, people are free to be liquidity and buy into the $6B dilution.
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劝读原帖，别把 60 亿 ATM 当噪音。
@maxpoop69 还是先把原帖读一下可能会有帮助。 也许这就是为什么还有人觉得 $IREN 那 60 亿美元的 ATM 只是噪音，还以为股价能涨 10 倍——因为他们根本不看文件？ https://t.co/JI6DfdsxdX
英文原文
@maxpoop69 Might be helpful to read the post. Maybe this is why people still think $6B $IREN ATMs are noise and their stock prices are going to go up 10x since they don’t read filings? https://t.co/JI6DfdsxdX
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再次强调 60 亿美元稀释和二级市场卖股不是噪音。
@BonyBallf2 @Kaizen_Investor 对 $IREN 来说，60 亿美元的稀释和往公开市场卖股，绝对不是“噪音”。
英文原文
@BonyBallf2 @Kaizen_Investor $6,000,000,000 dilution and sales into the open market for $IREN is not "noise".
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拿 PL 对比，认为 IREN 的 60 亿 ATM 会让绝大多数人离场。
如果一家 110 亿美元市值的 $PL 公司申报了 60 亿美元的稀释，我基本确定大家都会离场。 $IREN 之所以申报 60 亿美元 ATM，是因为那种“钻石手”“逢跌买入”的信徒社区，愿意吞下稀释，只要公司最后成功就行，而不在乎自己的股权被摊薄。
英文原文
If $PL, the $11B company filed for a $6,000,000,000 dilution, I'm pretty sure everyone would leave their positions. The reason why $IREN filed for a $6B ATM is because the cult "diamond hands", "buy the dip" community are happy to tank the dilution as long as the company succeeds over their equity appreciating.
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认为 IREN 现在的股东是在给扩张买单，融资完成后再做多更合理。
我真的很难不同意我对这件事的判断。 我说过 $IREN 长期是增厚的。但短期持有人是在通过被稀释，给这波扩张买单。 所以，对股权增值来说，最好的做法是等他们把融资做完之后再做多，而不是在他们还在积极稀释的时候买。 $IREN 如果不是真的需要用这个 60 亿美元 ATM，就不会去申报它。尤其是为了把 4.5GW 容量货币化。
英文原文
I really find it hard to disagree with my assessment. I said $IREN was accretive long term. But short term holders are the one funding the buildout by getting diluted. So the best thing to do for equity appreciation is go long after they get the funding, not while they're actively diluting. $IREN would not file a $6B ATM just for "optionality" if they didn't need to use it. Especially to monetize their 4.5GW capacity.
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说去年看好 IREN，但现在担心是谁在给它的 GW 扩张买单。
我去年看到了 $IREN 的巨大潜力。 我后来转空的原因是……到底是谁在为它的 GW 产能货币化提供资金？答案是现有持有人在被稀释。 $IREN 申报 60 亿美元 ATM，是因为他们大概率没有别的方式来融资。 等他们已经靠稀释把扩张资金筹好之后，我会考虑再次转多。
英文原文
I saw large potential with $IREN last year. The reason I flipped bearish is because... who is funding the monetization of their GW capacity? It's existing holders getting diluted. $IREN filed a $6B ATM since they likely didn't have any other way to finance it. I would consider flipping long again after they already financed their buildout from dilution.
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支持 Aschenbrenner 的很多长仓，但对 CRWV 和 IREN 单独看空，原因在于融资和稀释。
当然，我很尊重 Aschenbrenner，他大多数多头，比如 $BE 和 $LITE，都非常优秀。我最近也很少再看到像 Situational Awareness 这样水平的基金。 但话说回来：我非常不同意单独看多 $CRWV 和 $IREN。 如果我站在反方来看： $IREN 有很多原始产能。去年我看多，是因为大家都以为他们可以通过轻资产 colo 把它货币化。 但他们选择了高度稀释的 ATM 和 GPU 路线来变现。我仍然认为他们也可以做 colo，而且不需要碰 ATM；只是我觉得这种可能性很低。 $CRWV、$NVDA 和美国政府也许会继续给它托底，降低下行风险和传染性。 他们的软件编排做得很漂亮……
英文原文
Sure, I have a lot of respect for the Aschenbrenner, vast majority of his longs like $BE and $LITE are stellar. I haven't really seen a fund like Situational Awareness in awhile. That being said: strongly disagree with $CRWV and $IREN individually. If I'm playing devils advocate: $IREN has a lot of raw capacity. Last year I was long since everyone thought they could monetize that through asset-lite colo. But they chose heavily dilutive ATMs and GPUs to monetize that. They still can do colo and not tap into the ATM. I just thought that's very unlikely. $CRWV, $NVDA and US Gov might just keep it backstopped and lower downside risk/contagion. They've nailed software orchestration for high margins and have real backlog/revenue. Then they can always figure out a way to refinance. Macro in general just doesn't favor capex heavy companies right now.