方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 623 条 · 第 10 / 13 页
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以英特尔为例，强调基本面未变时应耐心持有，时间是最大资产。
$INTC 暴跌 17%，收盘回到 $45。 短期期权下跌 95%+，LEAPS（长期期权）下跌 40%+。 英特尔是“股票不会直线上涨”（除非是 $SNDK）的完美例证。而且它在过去 1 个月内仍上涨了 26%。 如果基本面逻辑未变（做多白宫政策/国家安全），最好等待其兑现。 对于 $AXTI 几个月内磷化铟(InP) 瓶颈潜力或 $VPG 一年后 Optimus 量产潜力的其他股票也是如此。 时间是最宝贵的资产。
英文原文
$INTC crashes 17% and finishes the day back at $45. Short dated options are down 95%+ with leaps down 40%+. Intel is the perfect example of “Stocks don’t move in a straight line up” (unless it’s $SNDK). And it’s still up 26% in 1M. If the fundamental thesis hasn’t changed (Long White House policy/National Security), it’s probably best to wait for it to play out. Same goes for any other stock from $AXTI InP bottleneck potential in a few months or $VPG potential Optimus ramp in a year. Time is the most valuable asset.
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博主主张公开免费分享研究，旨在减少散户与机构间的信息不对称。
没问题！我只是喜欢公开分享我的投资论点，而不是通过 Substack 等付费订阅来收费（当然，我并不反对那些这样做的人）。 股市是正和博弈，如果信息方向正确，每个人都能受益。 市场（以及很可能包括机构）最终会发现这类瓶颈或供应链公司。我个人喜欢公开免费地分享我找到的任何超额收益(alpha)或研究成果，以减少散户与机构之间的信息不对称。
英文原文
No problem! I just like to share my thesis publicly rather than charging for it behind substacks (no issue for people that do though). Stocks are positive sum where everyone benefits if information is directionally correct. Markets (and likely institutions) would discover these types of bottlenecks or supply chain companies eventually. I just personally like distributing any alpha or research I find publicly and free to reduce the information asymmetry between retail and institutions.
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利用非理性恐慌逢低买入，博弈政策缓和后的市场反弹。
这类抛售既出于风险管理，也源于非理性恐惧，例如 $OSS 下跌 -6.1%，$SKYT 下跌 -6.3%，因此“TACO”交易策略提供了绝佳机会。尤其是像 $LITE 这样基本面健康的公司，在周五下跌 6% 后，隔夜又再跌 3.78%。我将进行逢低买入 -> 特朗普缓和局势（市场开始复苏）-> 达成贸易协议，市场创历史新高。当然，这可能只需一天，也可能需要 4-5 天，谁也不知道。
英文原文
These types of selloffs are both risk-management and stems from irrational fear, eg. $OSS down -6.1% $SKYT down -6.3%, so the TACO trade presents great opportunities. Esp. when healthy companies like $LITE drop another 3.78% overnight after a 6% drop on friday. I'm going dip hunting -> Trump de-escalates (markets start to recovery) -> Trade deal made, markets ATH. Of course this might be one day or 4-5 days, who knows.
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通过信息发现寻找供应链瓶颈，多数标的因基本面差而落空。
@Ren_aramb 同意，这基本上就是一场淘金热。但我们是通过信息发现来寻找未来的瓶颈环节。找到正确的那个就等于发现了黄金（也许 $LPKFF 是那个知道的人）。我假设大多数人最终会空手而归，因为他们的很多基本面都很糟糕。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb Agreed, this is basically the gold rush. But instead we’re hunting for future bottlenecks with information discovery. Finding the right one would be discovering gold (maybe $LPKFF is the one who knows). I’d assume most end up empty since a lot of their fundamentals are bad.
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指出LLM在金融领域易自信出错，专家需警惕。
@pennycheck 是的，大型语言模型(LLMs)在处理财务信息和关系影响方面表现糟糕。我大量使用它们，但当你精通某个领域时，你会开始意识到它们（尤其是 ChatGPT）自信地给出错误答案的频率有多高。 https://t.co/X9w6WxYXP3
英文原文
@pennycheck Yeah LLMs are horrible with financial information and relational impacts. I heavily use them but you start to realize how often they’re confidently wrong (especially ChatGPT) when you’re knowledgeable in a field. https://t.co/X9w6WxYXP3
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作者表示暂无现成瓶颈ETF，愿提供可复制的清单。
@jaded4595325692 我不认为有这样的 ETF，因为其中一半都是非常非常小众的小盘股。不过我很乐意撰写一份瓶颈 ETF 清单，供人们参考复制。
英文原文
@jaded4595325692 i don't think there are any ETFs like this since half of these are very very niche small cap. I'd be happy to write up a bottleneck ETF though that ppl can copy.
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小市值标的具超额收益潜力，大市值预期已充分定价。
@D4RW1NEXE 谢谢！是的，这些属于更低调的标的，因为它们的市值极小。但等到像 $MP 那样达到 100 亿美元以上时，预期可能已经反映在价格中了。我相信我忽略的许多公司中仍有很多超额收益(alpha)机会。
英文原文
@D4RW1NEXE Appreciate it! Yeah these are the more under-the-radar ones since the marketcaps are extremely small. But by the time it hits $10B+ like $MP it's probably already priced in. I'm sure there's a lot of alpha with many of these companies that I overlooked.
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机构算法交易二阶效应，博主致力于让供应链影响对散户更易理解。
谢谢，很多人看到了新闻，但大多数人并没有真正看到市场的一阶、二阶效应，或者无法得出可操作的见解。通常，这完全是全新的信息发现，比如关于 $AXTI 和磷化铟(InP)瓶颈，或者 $OSS 及其在美国对委内瑞拉突袭中的使用。但机构算法是基于这种映射进行交易的，我只是让供应链/关系影响对散户来说更易消化。
英文原文
Thanks, a lot of people see the news but majority don’t really see second-third order effects on markets or can come to actionable insights. Often times it’s completely novel information discovery like with $AXTI and InP bottlenecks or $OSS and their usage in the US raid in Venezulea But institutional algorithms trade off this mapping and I’m just making supply chains/relational impacts digestible for retail.
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预测市场流动性低需审慎，不确定性风险及连锁反应仍存。
@CosmicSenate 这是一个很好的观点，我本应注明关于低流动性的问题。对于预测市场(Prediction Markets)的潜在结果，始终应持高度怀疑态度。无论如何，这带来了不确定性风险悬顶，且二阶/三阶连锁反应依然成立。
英文原文
@CosmicSenate This is a great point I should have noted regarding low liquidity. Prediction markets should always be taken with a large grain of salt regarding potential outcomes. Regardless, this presents an uncertainty risk overhang, and second/third order ripple effects still stand.
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博主解释通过供应链研究提供新信息，并承认因仓促分析而发布更正。
感谢大家。我致力于通过供应链映射和推理，尽可能多地产出新颖的信息。这样散户就能凭借掌握他人尚未知晓的信息，在机构之前更早地布局不同的股票或板块。但这次我仓促进行了分析，导致论点出错，因此不得不发布更正。
英文原文
Appreciate it. I try to produce as much novel information as possible by doing supply chain mapping and inference. This way retail can be earlier to institutions on different stocks/segments by knowing something others don't yet. But I rushed the analysis on this one and messed up the thesis, so had to write a correction.
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强调在事件发生前发布论点，避免追高。
一般来说，如果你还在等波士顿动力Atlas机器人实现规模化量产，那你可能已经有点晚了。我喜欢在事件发生前就发布我的投资论点，就像之前对$AXTI或这次的$SSYS那样，这与那些只在行情波动后反应或在高位入场的人不同。
英文原文
In general, if you're waiting for Boston Dynamics Atlas to be at scale already, you're probably a little late. I like to post my thesis at the start before any moment happens like with $AXTI or in this case $SSYS, which is different than others who just react to movements or enter near the top.
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博主分享公开分析过程的理念，认为股市长期是正和博弈。
谢谢！我尝试在分析股票时发布自己的 TLDR（太长不看）思考过程和分析，以便大家能学习并自行操作。我不相信信息壁垒，因为除非做期权，否则股票并非零和博弈。长期来看，这是一个正和博弈，如果投资逻辑方向正确，每个人都能受益。
英文原文
Thanks! I try to post my own TLDR thought process and analysis when I look at a stock so people can learn and do the same themselves. I don’t believe in gatekeeping info since stocks aren’t a zero sum game unless you do options. It’s a positive sum game long term where everyone benefits if the thesis is directionally right.
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分享利用期权杠杆捕捉大盘股波动以获取非对称收益的策略。
好问题！中小盘领域并不总是存在极高Alpha/高确信度/非对称性的机会。 但如果我看到机会，即使是像 $META 这样的大盘股，我也会抓住。上次我这样做是在 $GOOGL 145美元时。 你也可以通过保证金/期权将低风险转化为高风险。 因此，如果正确判断雪佛龙 $CVX 2%的波动，由于期权未充分定价波动，回报可能达到30%。 在这种情况下，如果 Meta 下跌20-30%并通过期权反弹，那将是百分之几百的收益。
英文原文
Great question! There's not always an extremely high alpha/high-conviction/asymmetric opportunity out there in the small-medium cap world. But if I see an opportunity, even with big caps like $META, I'll take it. Last time I did was with $GOOGL at $145. You can also turn lower risk into higher risk with margin/options. So getting a 2% Chevron $CVX movement correctly might be 30% return since options don't price in much movement. In this case with Meta, if it sells off over 20-30%, and it rebounds with options, that would be a few hundred percent gain.
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技术分析是噪音，基本面和趋势买入压力更重要。
@LawnChairCap @DanCote303 技术分析(TA)只是自我实现的预言，因为算法和人们都在关注它们。与基本面和顺风带来的买入压力相比，它们只是噪音，完全无关紧要。
英文原文
@LawnChairCap @DanCote303 TAs are just self fulfilling prophecies because algorithms and people look at them. They’re just noise and don’t matter at all compared to fundamentals and buying pressure from tailwinds.
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强调基本面优于图表分析，以OSS为例。
@DanCote303 总体而言，关注基本面比看图表更重要，$OSS 就是完美的例子。
英文原文
@DanCote303 Just in general, it’s more important to look at fundamentals than the chart, $OSS is the perfect example why. Stocks make ATHs every day.
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博主弃用雅虎财经，改用 Massive 构建实时数据管道。
@platochi @YahooFinance 我早先查看了雅虎财经(Yahoo Finance)，但最终使用 Massive（前身为 Polygon）作为实时数据管道。
英文原文
@platochi @YahooFinance I was looking at Yahoo Finance earlier but ended up just using Massive (formerly Polygon) for live data pipelines
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Alpha源于发现市场盲区，等待机构验证即已错过最佳时机。
没错，和 $VLN 一样。最大的利润来自于发现别人未发现的机会。 我觉得大家都在抱怨“为什么在它涨400%之前你不告诉我”，就像 $MU 那样在顶部蜂拥而入。 然后当我在早期发布像 $AIRO、$AXTI、$OSS 或 $VLN 这类内容，而它们下周就上涨50%+时，他们又抱怨。 散户认为 $AXTI 是某种随机的“拉高出货(pump and dump)”股票，但在其上涨100%+后，现在有了机构验证。 再说一次，超额收益(alpha)来自于发现大多数市场忽略的东西。等到机构告诉你买入时，你就已经错过了。
英文原文
Yep, same as $VLN. The most money to be made is when you discover things others don't. I feel like everyone complains about "Why didn't you tell me about this stock before it went up 400%" as people pile on at the top like $MU. Then complain when I post about stuff like $AIRO, $AXTI, $OSS, or $VLN at the start and they go up 50%+ the next week. Retail thinks $AXTI is some random pump and dump stock, but now you have institutional validation after a 100%+ move. Again, alpha is when you discover things majority of markets miss. You miss out by the time you wait for institutions to tell you to buy.
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喜欢 OSS 但不赞成小公司满仓
@FundWtd 我也喜欢 $OSS，但把所有资金都押在一家更小的公司上，是非常糟糕的风险管理策略。
英文原文
@FundWtd I like $OSS too but it’s a terrible risk management strategy to go all in on a smaller company
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自建数据管道发现$VLN异常，强调人工复核优于算法。
谢谢，我自建了类似 Citadel 的数据管道，在研究机器人板块股票时发现了 $VLN。这可能是我迄今发现的最大异常，因此我不得不手动将财务报告与分析师/扫描器报告进行交叉核对，以验证其真实性。即使算法 + 大语言模型(LLM) 也搞错了这一分析，只有人工审查才能发现这种差异。
英文原文
Thanks, I built my own Citadel-like data pipeline and I was researching robotics sector stocks and came across $VLN. This was probably one of the biggest anomalies I've ever found so I had to manually cross-check financial reports with analyst/scanner reports to see if it were true. Even algorithms + LLMs got this analysis wrong, so only manual review could spot this discrepancy.
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指出Fintel数据延迟，建议用实时数据观察$VLN空头回补引发的波动。
为了帮大家理清，Fintel 等数据源存在延迟。如果你想查看实时资金流向，尤其是周五的情况，可以付费使用 Ortex 或查看实时经纪商数据，以了解 $VLN 的算法做空在周五出了什么问题。你可以看到 IBKR 的可用券源从 220 万股降至 19 万股（这仅是众多经纪商中的一家），即使股价从 $1.7 上涨，由于筛选器尚未修正 -8200 万美元的消耗，数据依然滞后。随着 $VLN 回升至公允价值，空头回补通常会导致更大的价格波动或上涨。
英文原文
So just to help you out, Fintel and others are delayed data. If you want to see live flows, especially on Friday, you can pay for Ortex or look at live brokerage data to see what went wrong with $VLN algorithmic shorts on Friday. You can see 2.2M availability in IBKR drop to 190k (this is just 1 brokerage of many) on the way up even from $1.7 because screeners didn’t correct the -$82m burn yet. As $VLN climbs back to fair value, covering all shares sold short usually leads to more price volatility or increases.
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研究有时很简单，如理清细节或发现财报差异。
@Lehi88 谢谢！有时候就像搞对 $CRDO 线缆颜色那么简单，或者像这次在 $VLN 上发现分析师报告与资产负债表之间的差异。
英文原文
@Lehi88 Thanks! Sometimes it’s as easy as getting the color of the cables right with $CRDO or in this case finding discrepancies between analyst reports and balance sheets with $VLN.
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作者澄清其推文旨在通过新颖分析测试论点，而非投资建议。
我的意思是，我关于 $AXTI 和 $AIRO 的大部分帖子都是基于公开信息的新型信息综合。所以，如果市场发现 AXT 是人工智能供应链的单点故障，导致其股价上涨 100%，这是合乎情理的。或者在这种情况下，市场不知道 $OSS 在委内瑞拉的参与。除此之外，我只是发布我的思考过程或新颖分析，以测试我的论点与市场反应。这不是建议，也不推荐他人跟随。
英文原文
I mean most of my posts from $AXTI and $AIRO are novel information synthesis based on public info. So makes sense if stuff like AXT goes up 100% once markets find out it’s the single point of failure for the AI supply chain. Or in this case markets didn’t know about $OSS involvement in Venezuela. That aside I’m just posting my own thought process or just novel analysis to test my thesis against the markets. Not advice or recommending others to follow along.
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建议通过主动交易提升收益，被动持有仅获5%回报。
@LogicalThesis 可能需要积极进行波段交易(Active Swing Trading)和催化剂交易(Catalyst Trading)以获取更高回报。如果你只是被动持有去年的股票，那么5%的回报率已经很不错了。 https://t.co/tFmL0m9pey
英文原文
@LogicalThesis Probably need to be actively swing trading + catalyst trading for higher returns. If you’re just passively holding stocks from last year, then that 5% return is good. https://t.co/tFmL0m9pey
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分享期权交易策略：为减少时间价值衰减，选择远期合约布局财报季。
@jliljliljlil 我的意思是，我个人今天投入了几十万美元购买这些短期到期的看涨期权(Short-dated Calls)。 我假设1月初至2月财报季(Earnings)会到来，所以我布局了像9月这样更远期到期的合约，以减少时间价值衰减(Theta Decay) https://t.co/LqLx4lETNL
英文原文
@jliljliljlil I mean I personally threw a few hundred thousand on shorter dated calls like these today. I’d assume early Jan-Feb when earnings come out so I did stuff later on in the year like Sept so there’s less theta decay https://t.co/LqLx4lETNL
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利用年末税务收割导致的超跌，寻找基本面完好标的博取一月效应反弹。
新年快乐！ 最奇怪的“季节性异常”是均值回归反弹的“一月效应”。 寻找那些被严重抛售的股票，例如在3个月图表上跌幅分别为-53.9%的 $MSTR、-41.9%的 $HIMS 或 -38.63%的 $SMCI，或者像年初至今(YTD)下跌-25%的 $SNAP 和下跌-23%的 $MRVL 这样的公司。 主要候选标的拥有强劲的未来盈利预期，但股价却大幅下跌，例如Snapchat（涉及Perplexity、记忆变现等概念）、SMCI（未来同比增长50%以上，但因Q1至Q2积压订单延迟而下跌），或Marvell（未来Maia系列将带来三位数的收入增长）。 年末税务收割(Tax Harvesting)正在市场全面生效，这造成了人为的下行压力。 因此，当你在寻找新年折扣时，务必检查基本面是否真的没有大问题。（例如，MSTR因面临MSCI除名风险而风险更高） 但历史上，如果这些股票因年末税务亏损而加速抛售，它们往往会在年初第一个月率先上涨。这一趋势为交易者提供了最具回报的机会之一。
英文原文
Happy New Year! The strangest “seasonal anomaly" is the January Effect for mean reversion rallies. Look for beaten down names like $MSTR -53.9%, $HIMS -41.9%, or $SMCI -38.63% on 3M charts or companies like $SNAP -25% YTD, $MRVL -23% YTD The primary candidates have strong forward earnings, but are down like Snapchat (perplexity, memory monetization), SMCI (50%+ forward y/y growth but dropped on q1->q2 backlog delay), or Marvell with triple digit revenue growth from Maia down the road. The EoY tax harvesting is in full effect for the markets and this causes artificial downward pressure. So, while you’re shopping for new year discounts, make sure to check there isn’t something fundamentally too broken. (Eg. MSTR is more risky because of MSCI delisting) But, historically, these tend to rise first month of the year if they had accelerated sell offs due to end of year tax losses. This trend presents one of the most rewarding opportunities for traders.
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博主坚持自费投资并公开分享供应链见解，反对知识付费壁垒。
@magpiesaid @IanRountree @cantos 当我对关键物质供应链(material supply chains)有投资论点(thesis)时，我会投入自己的资金，并在 Reddit 和 X 上与粉丝分享我的见解。我不相信应该通过 Substack 的付费墙(paywalls)来搞信息壁垒(gatekeeping)。
英文原文
@magpiesaid @IanRountree @cantos I invest my own capital when I have a thesis about material supply chains and share my insights to my followers on Reddit and X. I don’t believe in gatekeeping them behind substack paywalls.
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赞赏对关键瓶颈的准确建模，认为值得深入研究。
@meeijer 我还没见过有人能像这样准确建模关键瓶颈。所以这绝对是一个很有趣的研究方向。
英文原文
@meeijer Nobody I’ve seen models critical bottlenecks like this correctly. So it’s definitely a fun one to look into
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建议优化内容实质以通过算法吸引高质量受众。
残酷的现实是，你的帖子风格吸引了错误的受众。受众其实就在那里。 我自己经营一家与加密/银行相关的金融机构，我只看到了你最近那条关于“退出”的帖子（而不是之前的任何帖子），因为 X 算法推荐了它。 从加密领域的个人经验来看，我很感激有来自 Wintermute、Vaneck 的分析师，乃至主要上市公司/对冲基金的首席执行官阅读我的帖子。我经常能与 Perplexity 的团队/创始人以及风险投资公司(VC)的所有者等有趣的人聊天。 从决策者到消费者都在 X 上。 受众就在那里，新算法决定了你的内容是否有足够的实质内容供这些人阅读。这更多是关于改进你的帖子。
英文原文
Harsh reality is that your style of posts attract the wrong audiences. The audience is there. I run a crypto/banking related financial institution myself, and I only saw your most recent quitting post (rather than any of your posts before) because the X algorithm recommended it. From personal experience on the crypto side Im grateful I have analysts from Wintermute, Vaneck, all the way to CEOs of major public company/hedge funds reading my posts. And I get to chat with cool people like the team/founders at Perplexity to owners of VC firms often. All the decision makers down to consumers are on X. The audience is there, the new algorithm decides if your content has enough substance for these people to read it. It’s more about improving your posts
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估算 AI 基建法案通过概率，并更看重行政命令
是的，就像我和 Sydney Sweeney 的机会是 50/50 一样，法案通过、然后 $NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR 起飞的概率也是 50/50。 要么发生，要么不发生。 玩笑归玩笑，我随便猜的话，考虑到 Bernie 等民主党人早期反对，概率大概是 30-35%。 我会更押注可能的行政命令强行推进，因为 $ORCL 创始人和前沿 LLM 公司与本届政府关系很近。 另外，AI 基础设施现在已经是国家安全风险。
英文原文
Yes like how my chances with Sydney Sweeney are 50/50, the chances that the bill passes and $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR goes to the moon are 50/50 as well. Either it happens or it doesn’t. Jokes aside just a wild guess is 30-35% given early disagreement from Democrats like Bernie. I’d count more on likely executive orders ramming things through given how close the $ORCL founder and frontier LLMs are with the administration. Also given how AI infrastructure is now a national security risk.
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认为近期抛售来自套息交易解除，中期降息利好风险资产
我的观点和之前一样。最近这轮抛售，是日本央行加息和美联储降息后重新建立仓位，再引发套息交易解除。 短期来看，套息交易解除的影响比三次降息大得多。 现在我们已经看到了这轮抛售的结果。 但 12 月 10 日的美联储降息，对 $RKLB 到 $NBIS 这类风险资产的中期，比如未来 3 个月，是极其利多的，尤其是在它们基本面还在增长的情况下。
英文原文
I’ve held the same view as before. Recent selloff is carry trade unwind from reload after boj hike and fed rate cut. Carry trade unwind is much more impactful than 3x rate cut near term. And now we’ve seen the result of that selloff. But Dec 10ths fed rate cut is incredibly bullish for risk assets from $RKlB to $NBIS medium term like 3 months out, especially when they have growing fundamentals.
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反对只做稳定币应用层包装，认为长期赢家是垂直整合基础设施
我非常不同意这个 thesis。 所有那些做 YC 式快速上市、“世界级 UX 的酷应用”的人，比如 crypto cards，其实只是在 Visa 网络上再增加一层摩擦。 那些做“酷炫区块链 neobank”的人，把 crypto on-ramp 搭在 Zerohash 上，Zerohash 又搭在 MoonPay 上，再搭在 X 包装层上，本质上就是包装套包装。 利润率不会下降。行业什么都没变。 人们仍然通过 Bridge 向 Stripe 支付 1.5% 的稳定币费用。人们仍然通过 IBKR 经 Zerohash 支付 0.8% 的 Bitcoin 入金费用。 商户仍然通过 POS 终端支付 2.2%-2.9%，即使 USDC/SOL 的成本可能只有 1 美分。 如果稳定币基础设施公司想自己像 Apple 一样，从汇款、第三方支付或 neobank 开始做应用，它们可以很轻松地把上面那些漂亮 UI 应用全部抹掉。 而且它们应该这么做。 真正的长期赢家，会是拥有汇款牌照（Coinbase）、银行牌照（Circle）和其他关键许可、并能真正颠覆传统金融的垂直整合基础设施。 不是那些只是给当前混乱系统再加一层漂亮应用 UI、但什么问题都没解决的东西。
英文原文
Extremely disagree with the thesis. Everyone building YC fast-go-to-market "sick app with world-class UX" like crypto cards are just building extra friction on top of Visa network. People building "sick blockchain neobanks" with crypto on-ramps on top of Zerohash on top of Moonpay on top of X wrapper on top are just wrappers on top of wrappers. Margins don't go down. Nothing changes in the industry. People are still paying 1.5% for Stablecoins Stripe via Bridge. People are still paying .8% for a Bitcoin on-ramp through IBKR via Zerohash. Merchants are still paying 2.2%-2.9% through the POS terminal, even though USDC SOL is probably 1 cent. If (stablecoin infrastructure) or wanted to start building applications themselves like Apple from remittance/3pp or Neobanks, via they could easily wipe out the fancy UI apps everything on top. And they should. True long term winners will be vertically integrated infrastructure with money transmitter licenses (Coinbase), banking charters (Circle), and others to actually disrupt traditional finance. Not fancy application UIs that just add to the current mess, and fix nothing.
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用 MU 记忆体行情类比 NBIS 当前投降阶段
是的，很多人原本就认同 $MU（Micron）和内存在 AI 芯片建设中扮演核心角色的观点。 但由于报告里对利润率收缩的担忧，以及中国相关担忧，大家没有等到自己的观点兑现，最后反而带着亏损离场。 现在内存短缺已经出现，早期看对的人被证明一直是对的。但在这轮大涨之后，他们已经不再持有那只股票。 我认为我们现在在 $NBIS 这类股票上也看到了同样情况。大家都看得到它一年后可能成为 AI 版 Amazon Web Services（AWS），同时还叠加 Robotaxi 潜力，但眼下正处在投降/出清阶段。
英文原文
はい、多くの人が $MU （マイクロン）とメモリがAIチップの構築において中心的な役割を果たすという見解を持っていました。しかし、レポートによるマージン縮小の懸念や、中国関連の懸念があり、人々は自分の見解が実現するのを待つ代わりに、結局は損失を抱えることになってしまいました。 今やメモリは不足しており、初期の人々がずっと正しかったことが証明されました。しかし、彼らはこの大幅な株価上昇の後には、もはやその株を所有していません。 現在、私たちは $NBIS のような銘柄でも同じ状況を目にしていると思います。皆、1年後にはロボタクシーと並んでAI版のアマゾン ウェブ サービス (AWS)** になる潜在的な可能性を見ていますが、今は降伏（キャピチュレーション）/売り抜けの局面なのです。
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用 AMD/PLTR/RKLB 历史说明 thesis 未变时应给时间
同意，而且我已经反复见过这种情况。 2016 年的 $AMD，当时人们觉得它能挑战 Intel，后来在 5 美元附近投降。 2023 年的 $PLTR，当时人们相信 AI thesis，后来在做空者活动之后，在十几美元投降。 今年的 $RKLB，当时人们觉得它在 18 美元可能成为下一个 SpaceX，后来在低目标价之后投降。 当你看到很多散户最爱的名字，比如 $BTC、$NBIS、$IREN、$RKLB、$CIFR、$ASTS、$ALAB、$CRCL、$HOOD、$SOFI 等，从历史高位回落时，看看历史案例是有帮助的。 很多时候，当 FinX 因为大家讨论 $NBIS 可能成为下一个 AI 版 AWS，或 $ASTS 可能成为卫星蜂窝领域的下一个 Starlink，而形成所谓“泡沫”时，如果唯一变化的是股价，而不是 thesis，那就给它时间兑现。
英文原文
Agreed and I've seen it time and time again. $AMD in 2016 when people thought it could take on Intel, then capitulation at $5. $PLTR in 2023 when people believed in the AI thesis, then capitulation in the $10's after short seller activity. $RKLB this yeare when people thought it could become the next SpaceX at $18. Then capitulation after low PTs. When you see a lot of retail favorites like $BTC, $NBIS, $IREN, $RKLB, $CIFR, $ASTS, $ALAB, $CRCL, $HOOD, $SOFI, and others dropping from ATHs, it's good to see examples from history. And many of times, when finx forms a "bubble" from discussion that $NBIS is likely to become the next AWS for AI, or $ASTS has the potential to be the next starlink for satellite cellular. If the only thing that's changed is the stock price and not the thesis, give it time to play out.
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用 RKLB 说明散户缺乏耐心，机构买入后才上涨
@RKLBMan WSB 上所有人都在 $RKLB 从 13 到 30 美元时参与过，后来它在 20-30 美元之间停住，机构又给出 13 美元目标价时，大家就放弃了。 现在机构买上去之后，它已经 50 美元以上了。人们真的没什么耐心，哈哈。
英文原文
@RKLBMan Everyone on WSB was in on $RKLB at $13-> $30 then gave up when it stalled between $20-$30 and institutions were giving it like $13 PTs. Now it’s $50+ after institutions bought it up, people just don’t have the patience lol.
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认为 FinX 散户泡沫短期拥挤但长期方向常常正确
FinX 是泡沫。/r/wallstreetbets 上的交易员也是。 人们都持有同样的股票：$NBIS、$TE、$ASTS、$HOOD、$RKLB、$IREN、$KRKNF、$ONDS、$SOFI、$AMD、$TSLA 等。 但是：这是好事。 这些年我一遍又一遍看到这种情况。 短期看，当人们买 1-3 个月期权时，他们会在这些“泡沫化”和拥挤交易里亏钱。 但从一年后的长期看，散户对这些公司的方向判断往往是对的。 这才是最重要的部分。 例如，一两年前 $NVDA 刚起飞时，$TSM（140-150 美元）是 Reddit 上最热门的 ticker。 散户方向上看对了，因为 $TSM 是整个 AI 建设的中心。 短期里，所有人都亏钱了，因为他们买了两个月后的 call，而股票横盘，甚至跌到 127 美元。 一年后，它涨了 100%+，那些 call 本来会涨 10 倍。 $MU 也一样。Reddit 知道内存是 AI 热潮的重要组成部分，于是都挤进同一笔交易。 但 $MU 在 100 美元横盘了一整年，大家都亏钱了。 快进到现在，从 Micron 到 SK 海力士，内存成了最热门的东西，股价从 65 美元冲到 245 美元，涨了 200%+。 散户方向上是对的，但中途投降了。 我确信，像 $NBIS 这样的股票，现在正处于散户买了太多短期期权，然后像当年 $TSM 或 $MU 下跌时那样，连股票也一起投降的阶段。 但快进一年，这可能就是 $TSM、$MU 或 $HOOD（18 美元时）那种 3-4 倍回报，当初散户方向其实一直是对的。 我相信 FinX 散户股票“泡沫”在较短时间框架里未必正确，因为 OI、宏观波动和做市商会主导价格；但长期方向上往往是对的。
英文原文
FinX is a bubble. Same with traders on /r/wallstreetbets. People own the same stocks $NBIS, $TE, $ASTS, $HOOD, $RKLB, $IREN, $KRKNF, $ONDS, $SOFI, $AMD, $TSLA and others. However: It’s a positive thing. I’ve seen this on repeat again and again throughout the years. Short term when people buy 1-3 months options, they lose money on these “bubbly” and crowded trades. Long term 1 year later, retail gets these companies directionally right. And this is the most important part. For example, $TSM ($140-$150) was the most popular ticker a year or two ago on Reddit when $NVDA was initially taking off back. Retail got this directionally right, because $TSM was the center of all AI buildout. Short term, everyone lost money because they bought calls for 2M out and the stock stalled and even dropped to $127. One year later it’s up over 100%+ and all those calls would have 10x’ed. Same with $MU. Reddit knew memory was a huge part of the AI boom and piled in on the same trade. Yet $MU stalled at $100 for an entire year and everyone lost money. Fast forward, memory from Micron to Sk Hynix is the hottest thing now and shot up 200%+ from $65 to $245 . Retail got this right directionally right but capitulated. I’m convinced on stocks like $NBIS that we’re in the period of time where retail bought too many short dated calls and are capitulating with shares like the drops on $TSM or $MU. However fast forward a year, this might be that 3x-4x return like $TSM or $MU or $HOOD (at $18) where retail was directionally right all along. I’m confident Finx Retail stock “bubbles” might not be right in shorter timeframes - where OI, macro volatility, and MMs dominate - but are right directionally long term.
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澄清折旧应从资产可供使用时开始，而非实际使用时。
另外——“折旧仅在底层资产（GPU）投入使用时才开始计提”——这一说法存在细微差别且倾向于错误。我不确定 $IREN 是否有特殊规定，但一般而言，折旧从资产“可供使用”时开始，而非“实际使用”（暗示100%利用率阈值、客户工作负载或资产真正被使用）。例如，查看 $ORCL 的报告，其已考虑了利用率滞后因素。
英文原文
Also - "Depreciation only kicks in once the underlying assets (GPUs) are in use." - this is nuanced and leans false. I'm not sure if this is is different for $IREN in specific, but just in general depreciation starts when the asset is available for use, not in use implying your 100% utilization (thresholds), not for cusotmer worklods, or assets actually being in use. (eg. if we look at $ORCL's report it accounted for utilization lag).
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博主更正$MSFT数据错误，澄清计算逻辑并建议忽略特定图表。
是的，$MSFT 的交易数据确实有误。这是最后时刻加进去的，但我本应该仔细校对一下。 不幸的是无法编辑 X 帖子，所以我就留在这里说明： - 计算时使用了混合估算值，例如芬兰设施（Mantsala）。你说得对，$MSFT 的交易应该仅按美国本土交易计算。市场费率可能在 200 万美元以上。 - 我根据 X 上的多个 GPU 场景做了拆解，但这只是其中之一。$NBIS 先提升 H200 产能，随后部署 GB300，但这并未展示全貌，所以请忽略该图表。 标准化表格仍然有效，可作为粗略的相对比较。
英文原文
Yep, the $MSFT deal in specific was off. Threw that in last minute but should have proof-read it. Unfortunately can't edit X posts but I'll just leave this here: - Used a blended estimate eg. Finland facility (Mantsala) for caluations. You're correct in saying $MSFT deal should be US-only deal calculations. Market rates would likely be around $2.0M+ - Did a breakdown of multiple GPU scenarios off X but this was just one of them. $NBIS was ramping up with h200 first then deploying gb300's down the road, but doesn't show the full picture so ignore the chart. Normalization table still stands as a rough relative comparison.
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博主称能凭记忆精准回忆大量公司的财务数据。
@Perugius__ 不，全是背下来的！对于我研究过的低百位数家公司，我有一种奇怪的能力，能具体回忆起财务方面的各种数据，比如大量的营收数字、增长率、以往的估值、特定日期的随机涨跌、交易规模等。
英文原文
@Perugius__ Nope it’s all memorized! A lot of the revenue numbers, growth rates, valuations previously, random dips/spikes on certain days, deal sizes, etc. across low hundred figure of companies I’ve had a strange ability to just recall it all specifically for financial stuff.
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借鉴FTX投资组合经验，探讨核心业务搭配高增长子公司的科技巨头成长路径。
这是一个合理的评论，因为很多人对FTX这个词有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，且存在大量负面联想。（我并非试图制造这种联想）。 然而，尽管他们存在会计欺诈，他们在现代任何初创企业中做对了一件事，即投资组合公司的增长/投资。当散户进行长期投资时，我们可以从中吸取一些教训。 在过去4年中，我们看到了这些回报（1000%+）的成果，这正是我发布的内容。 核心观点是，如果你拥有一家像Google Search（例如 $NBIS）这样合法的运营业务，并将其与像YouTube一样的超扩展子公司（例如Avride, Clickhouse）相结合，那就是成为下一个科技巨头的完美组合。
英文原文
That's a fair comment since a lot of people have PTSD with the word FTX and there's a lot of negative associations. (which im not trying to make). However, despite their accounting fraud, they did one thing right out any other startup in the modern era, which was portfolio company growth/investments. And there's some lessons we can take from that when retail does long term investors. We got to see the fruits of those returns (1000%+), in the past 4 years, which was what I posted about. The core point was that if you had a legitmate operational business like Google Search (eg. $NBIS) , and paired it along with Youtube-like hyper scaling subsidiaries (eg. Avride, Clickhouse), thats the perfect mix to becoming the next tech giant.
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指出LLM初始错误时，集成方法无法纠正自信的错误答案。
@platochi 我关注到了！我上面漏掉的另一点是，没有任何大语言模型(LLM)能在一开始就给出正确答案（即使你个人有时能解释其中的细微差别）。 因此，如果它们都自信地给出了错误答案，采用顾问/集成(ensemble)式的方法也无济于事。
英文原文
@platochi I’m tuned in! Another point i missed above was that no LLM gets it right in the first place (even if you personally explain the nuances sometimes). So having a counsel/ensemble type approach wouldn’t do anything if they all get it confidently wrong
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构建金融数据接入LLM成本高昂，散户难以获得机构级Alpha生成能力。
嗯，这种方法需要花费数百万美元来构建定制化的金融数据管道（Financial Data Pipelines）接入到大语言模型（LLM）中（我不想花这笔钱）。 这大概是对 @demishassabis、@sama、@elonmusk、@DarioAmodei、@ylecun、@arthurmensch、@aidangomez 或者拥有资源的初创公司来说的一个挑战。 这绝对是一个价值十亿美元的问题：如何让散户也能通过提示词（Prompt）获得与 Jane Street 算法同等的阿尔法（Alpha）生成能力。 我可以开源一个轻量级版本，就像上面的 LLM 委员会那样，仅基于我个人的领域特定判断，但肯定无法做到深入。有趣的事实是，$NVDA 过去曾试图招募我领导他们的人工智能团队之一，所以也许如果我现在没忙于其他事情的话……
英文原文
Uh this approach would cost millions into building custom financial data pipelines into the LLM (which I don't want to spend). Prob a challenge for @demishassabis, @sama, @elonmusk, @DarioAmodei, @ylecun, @arthurmensch, @aidangomez or a startup with the resources. Definitely a billion dollar question for alpha generation to make the same Jane Street algorithm capability available to retail to prompt. I could open source a lightweight version like the LLM council above just based on my own domain-specific judgment, but won't be anywhere close to being in-depth. Fun fact, $NVDA tried recruiting me to lead one of their AI teams in the past so mybe if i wasn't working on other things right now
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高贝塔股常先于指数下跌，是市场风向标。
历史上确实如此，今年也不例外。在2月至4月期间，我们曾看到高贝塔值(高波动性)股票如 $HOOD 大幅回调，成长股及前沿指数也出现大幅下跌。 这并非总是如此，但指数通常最后才发生变动，而成长股/高贝塔值股票通常是煤矿中的金丝雀(市场风向标)。
英文原文
So it actually happened like that historically, and this year too. Before we saw high beta like $HOOD sell off back from Feb to April, and growth stocks frontran index on the massive drop. This isn’t always the case but indexes are usually last to move and growth/high beta stocks are usually a good canary in the coal mine.
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分析2024年表外去杠杆规模，认为当前正重新加杠杆而非触及结构性资金。
大多数事情发生在表外，所以我们无从知晓。 回到2024年，去杠杆(unwind)规模约为2000亿至3000亿美元以上。包括140亿美元期货（CFTC及BIS数据）、1600亿美元对冲基金外汇远期合约（来源：BIS公报第90期），以及约1000亿美元（假设投机性的非银行金融机构(NBFI)贷款部分）。 2万亿美元以上来自GPIF（1.6万亿美元）等结构性资金，1万亿美元以上来自银行贷款等。 2024年已经清理了大量去杠杆，但未触及结构性部分。 但我的看法是，我们很可能自2024年以来正在重新加杠杆(reload)，并看到那约2000亿美元的去杠杆规模再次被清理，而非触及结构性资金。
英文原文
Most things happen off the books so we won't know. So back in 2024 unwind was about $200B – $300B+. $14 Billion in futures (CFTC & BIS data), $160 Billion from Hedge Fund FX Forwards, Source: (BIS Bulletin #90), + ~$100B (Portion of NBFI loans assumed speculative). $2T+ is structural money from GPIF ($1.6T), $1T+ from Bank lending, etc. 2024 cleared a lot of the unwind already but didn't touch the structural part. But my take is that we've likely seeing a reload since 2024 and seeing that ~$200B-ish figure be cleared out again rather than touching structural money.
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宏观分化加剧，但股票基本面优于宏观逆风。
这是一个价值百万美元的问题，也说明了在全球市场高度互联的背景下，宏观环境有多么复杂。通常，三次降息是极其看涨的，往往会导致次年 $SPY 和 $QQQ 指数获得两位数涨幅。然而……此时日本央行(BOJ)正在加息。但如果美联储降息而日本央行加息，就会出现分化：美元融资成本更低，日元融资成本更高 -> 巨大的利差变化，这可能会加速日元套息交易(Yen Carry Trades)的平仓。我不知道确切答案。但我推测，我们可能已经看到了这些恐慌情绪的最坏阶段，许多高贝塔(High-Beta)股票在日本央行加息前提前下跌了40%。而且抛售导致许多像 $NBIS 或 $META 这样的股票脱离了基本面。所以有一点是肯定的：股票基本面 > 宏观逆风。
英文原文
So that is a million dollar question and speaks how to incredibly complex macro is given how interconnected markets are globally. Normally triple rate cut is extraordinarily bullish and normally leads to double digit $SPY $QQQ index gains the following year. However... this comes at a time where BOJ is raising rates. But If the Fed cuts and BOJ raises, you get a divergence: cheaper USD funding, more expensive JPY funding -> big differential changes, which could accelerate unwinding of yen carry trades. I don't know the answer. But my speculation is we've likely seen the worst of these fears play around where many high-beta stocks dropped 40% preemptively in advance of BOJ rate hike. And the sell-off has led many stocks like $NBIS or $META to be detached from fundamentals. So one thing is for sure though: fundamentals of stocks > macro headwinds.
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宏观因素致抛售，预计周一反转并抢跑12月降息。
所以我提到的四个宏观要点是此次抛售的更大原因。上周五有大量期权头寸到期，我猜测在 $NVDA 财报后，这纯粹是由算法驱动的（而且至今仍说不通）。然而，导致更长期抛售的主要原因包括：由币安(Binance)引发的连锁加密货币保证金清算、降息概率变化、AI信贷压力以及日元套利交易(Yen carry trade)。我猜测市场将在本周一反转，并在市场迫使美联储(Fed)降息后重新定价并抢跑12月降息（且在期权到期后）。不过，我不确定日元套利交易的抛售会在多大程度上抵消这一影响。
英文原文
So the four macro points I talked about was the larger reason for the selloff. There was a huge amount of option interest expiring last Friday, and my guess post $NVDA earnings was that it was purely algorithmic driven (and still doesn't make much sense). The larger overhang about the cascading crypto margin liqudations caused from Binance, Rate cut odds changing, AI credit stress, and yen carry trade are the main reasons behind the longer sell-off though. My guess is market reversal this Monday and repricing in + frontrunning December ratecut after markets bulled Fed into cutting (and after option expirations. However, I don't know how much possible Yen carry trade selloff offsets this.
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强调投资应追求收益与权重的双重最大化。
@RJCcapital 正确的座右铭是： 最大化收益，最大化收益。 （市场，权重） https://t.co/e5oKDsYcz7
英文原文
@RJCcapital The correct motto is: Maximize Gains, Maximize Gains. (markets, weight) https://t.co/e5oKDsYcz7
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承认短期回撤，强调选股能力与避免高位追涨的重要性。
@soulbiri1 是的，我也亏损不少。即使是最好的投资者，短期内也会出现这样的回撤（Drawdown），但如果他们懂得如何挑选个股，且不在此类价位做多 $RGTI $OKLO 这类股票，长期来看应该能跑赢市场。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yep I’m down a lot too, even the best investors have drawdowns like these short term but should outperform longer term if they know how to pick individual stocks + not long $RGTI $OKLO type stocks at these levels.
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期权到期引发波动，短期看算法，中长期看基本面。
明天有很多期权到期（如果你看 $NBIS 到 $META 等）。未平仓合约链(open interest chains)将被清洗。我想说从周一开始到1-2月，或者12月初会有复苏，但由于这是由算法驱动的，基本面没有太多实质性内容，不确定伟大的算法之神(algo gods)短期内会怎么做。中长期基本面更重要。
英文原文
lot of option expiration tomorrow (if you look at $NBIS to $META, etc). and open interest chains will get flushed. I want to say starting Monday into Jan-Feb, or maybe recovery in early December but since it's algorithmic driven with nothing too material to fundamentals, not sure what the great algo gods will do short term. Medium-long term fundamentals matter more.
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鲍威尔讲话料重申NBIS优于IREN，建议关注个股基本面而非宏观大盘。
杰罗姆（鲍威尔）大概会上台，宣称 $NBIS > $IREN，然后在他走向由悉尼·斯威尼（Sydney Sweeney）坐在副驾的新兰博基尼时潇洒离场（mic drop）。 市场会鼓掌欢呼，因为他说的不过是众所周知的事实。 但除此之外，我们可能会获得更多关于12月降息以及政府停摆后经济前景的见解。大盘随后的走势可谓五五开，因此除非你交易短期指数或更依赖宏观的资产，否则关注个股基本面更为重要。
英文原文
Jerome will probably go on stage, say $NBIS > $IREN, and micdrop after walking offstage to his new lambo that Sydney Sweeney is riding shotgun in. Markets will clap and cheer knowing he said something everyone knows as a fact. But that aside, we’ll probably get more insights into Dec rate cut and a view of the economy after gov blackout. It’s a coin flip direction the general markets go after, so more important to look at individual stock fundamentals unless you trade short term indexes or more macro dependent assets
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解析高波动股因机械对冲导致的剧烈震荡及反转机制。
Nebius [$NBIS] 在一个月内经历了从 $140 -> $94 -> $130 -> $83 的剧烈波动。对于波动性股票，如果一周内能下跌 25%，那么一周内反弹 33% 也是可能的。机械对冲（Mechanical hedging）会导致股价剧烈下跌，但当风向转变时，反向情况同样会发生。
英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] went from $140 -> $94 -> $130 -> $83 in the span of 1 month. With volatile stocks, if something can drop 25% in a week, it can also back up 33% in a week. Mechanical hedging brings a stock down violently, but when the switch flips, the same happens in reverse. https://t.co/YmzL7OqeWw