· 方法论
涉及标的： $HIMS$MRVL$MSTR$SMCI$SNAP
新年快乐！ 最奇怪的“季节性异常”是均值回归反弹的“一月效应”。 寻找那些被严重抛售的股票，例如在3个月图表上跌幅分别为-53.9%的 $MSTR、-41.9%的 $HIMS 或 -38.63%的 $SMCI，或者像年初至今(YTD)下跌-25%的 $SNAP 和下跌-23%的 $MRVL 这样的公司。 主要候选标的拥有强劲的未来盈利预期，但股价却大幅下跌，例如Snapchat（涉及Perplexity、记忆变现等概念）、SMCI（未来同比增长50%以上，但因Q1至Q2积压订单延迟而下跌），或Marvell（未来Maia系列将带来三位数的收入增长）。 年末税务收割(Tax Harvesting)正在市场全面生效，这造成了人为的下行压力。 因此，当你在寻找新年折扣时，务必检查基本面是否真的没有大问题。（例如，MSTR因面临MSCI除名风险而风险更高） 但历史上，如果这些股票因年末税务亏损而加速抛售，它们往往会在年初第一个月率先上涨。这一趋势为交易者提供了最具回报的机会之一。
Happy New Year! The strangest “seasonal anomaly" is the January Effect for mean reversion rallies. Look for beaten down names like $MSTR -53.9%, $HIMS -41.9%, or $SMCI -38.63% on 3M charts or companies like $SNAP -25% YTD, $MRVL -23% YTD The primary candidates have strong forward earnings, but are down like Snapchat (perplexity, memory monetization), SMCI (50%+ forward y/y growth but dropped on q1->q2 backlog delay), or Marvell with triple digit revenue growth from Maia down the road. The EoY tax harvesting is in full effect for the markets and this causes artificial downward pressure. So, while you’re shopping for new year discounts, make sure to check there isn’t something fundamentally too broken. (Eg. MSTR is more risky because of MSCI delisting) But, historically, these tend to rise first month of the year if they had accelerated sell offs due to end of year tax losses. This trend presents one of the most rewarding opportunities for traders.