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建议分批建仓NBIS，避免单日全仓买入。
@jakub_cyferski 任何时候都是好时机，只要进行成本平均(Cost Average)操作，不要在一天内全仓买入 $NBIS 即可。
英文原文
@jakub_cyferski It's always a good time, just cost average and don't all in $NBIS in a single day.
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征集社区最高确信度且具200%潜力的AI基建股，以构建观察列表。
众包征集 X 社区最高确信度的股票——如下文中的 $NBIS 或 $RR。 仅限未来 6 个月内具备 200%+ 潜力的标的。 📈 你的单一 #1 最高确信度选股及逻辑是什么？ 这将有助于建立超大规模建设赢家（Hyperscaling winners）的社区观察列表。 https://t.co/qYO574waHR
英文原文
Crowdsourcing the X community’s highest-conviction stocks — names like $NBIS or $RR below. Only 200%+ potential plays over the next 6 months. 📈 What's your single #1 highest conviction pick and thesis? Would be helpful to build a community watchlist for hyperscaling winners. https://t.co/qYO574waHR
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博主表示RKLB和NBIS可占其投资组合大部分仓位。
@rknfshgdt $RKLB $NBIS 是我非常乐意让其占据我投资组合大部分仓位的标的。
英文原文
@rknfshgdt $RKLB $NBIS is something I'd be extremely comfortable with comprising majority of my port.
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博主表示需研究新话题，此前精力耗尽在VIRT及杂务上。
@Only4CBN @Neat_Lama 我仍然需要去研究一下。前几天我把所有时间都花在了 $VIRT 和各种杂项评论上了，哈哈。
英文原文
@Only4CBN @Neat_Lama I still gotta look into it. Spent all my time on $VIRT and misc comments the other day lol
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调侃市场参与者对克ramer观点的反向操作日益复杂。
@DeepValueBagger 不知道……对于反向操作克ramer（Cramer）的CC（Costco）卖家，总是得考虑到反向的反向克ramer效应。市场参与者正变得越来越聪明。
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@DeepValueBagger Idk... always have to take into account the inverse inverse Cramer for CC sellers who inverse Cramer. Market markers are getting smarter
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对比博通与台积电，认为台积电作为底层基础更值得投资。
@turnandburn07 $AVGO 在定制超大规模客户专用集成电路(ASIC)领域复刻了英伟达(NVDA)凭借GPU的崛起轨迹。在高位买入总是很难，但有时股价会持续上涨。无论如何，$TSM 是英伟达、博通(AVGO)等公司的基础，所以我更喜欢这只股票，我可能会选择买入TSM而不是AVGO。
英文原文
@turnandburn07 $AVGO mirrors nvda's ascent with GPUs but for custom hyperscaler ASICs. It's always hard to buy things at the top, but sometimes they keep going up. Either way, $TSM serves as the foundation for NVDA, AVGO, etc, so I like the stock the best and I'd prob buy TSM over AVGO
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称赞 X 平台股票社区氛围温馨和谐。
@DeepValueBagger @Neat_Lama 确实，X 上的股票社区氛围非常温馨和谐。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger @Neat_Lama true, v wholesome stock community on X
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对比高盛与穆迪对衰退的矛盾观点，强调独立分析的重要性。
@unusual_whales 高盛：“衰退风险低，利好股市” 穆迪：“衰退，清仓所有” 这就是为什么你不应该听信分析师，而要自己做分析。
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@unusual_whales Goldman Sachs: "Low recession risk bullish for stocks" Moodys "Recession, sell everything" This is why you don't listen to analysts and do your own analysis.
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博主回复网友表示赞同。
@Neat_Lama 太完美了！
英文原文
@Neat_Lama it's perfect!
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博主感谢粉丝创意支持，分享互动乐趣。
我简直无语了！冰箱上的打印图是我两个月前开始用 X 以来见过的最棒的东西。在 $NBIS 和 $HIMS 等股票突破前，帮助他人并分享我的观点让我乐在其中。感谢大家的支持，也感谢 @Neat_Lama 带来的欢乐氛围！
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I'm at a loss for words! The fridge print is the best thing I've seen on X since I started 2m ago. I have a fun time helping others and sharing my thoughts on stuff from $NBIS to $HIMS before any breakouts. Thanks for the support everyone and @Neat_Lama for the fun vibes!
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建议采用成本平均法，认为标的被低估。
@lunapuma28 @robswainept 成本平均法。我认为它被低估了。
英文原文
@lunapuma28 @robswainept cost averaging. I think it's undervalued
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计划发布以太坊深度分析，指出L2价值回流不足及竞品分流问题。
@robswainept 没问题，我本周末会写一篇关于以太坊(Ethereum)的深度分析。这是一个非常长的论点，主要涉及第二层网络(L2)未能向以太坊主网输送与其交易量相匹配的价值，以及存在过多竞争对手（例如 Solana）或兼容 EVM 的第一层网络(L1)分流了网络活跃度。
英文原文
@robswainept Sure I'll do an Ethereum writeup this weekend. It's a really long thesis, but mainly has to do how L2 don't enough deliver value to ETH mainnet compatible to their tx and how there's too many competitors (eg. Solana) or EVM compatible L1s that siphon off network activity.
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称赞关于NBIS的动漫类比
@soulbiri1 关于 $NBIS 的动漫类比很到位
英文原文
@soulbiri1 solid anime analogy for $NBIS
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建议直接做多BTC/ETH，MSTR估值偏低有修正空间且或遭国有化。
我在$114k做多比特币，但在$4.2k卖出以太坊。我不认为我在任何地方说过要在$3k以上买入ETH。 $MSTR在比特币行情中历史上通常在净资产值(NAV)的1.6-2倍之间交易。最近市场做空MSTR/做多BTC，因此NAV低于1.5倍，在比特币行情（通常在10月上涨）中可能有修正空间。 长期来看，鉴于其持有的BTC数量，MSTR被国有化纳入美国财政部的可能性最大。我不认为ETH或BMNR对美国政府的战略重要性。 否则，我建议你直接做多底层资产如BTC，或者如果你真的相信它，就做多ETH，而不是购买这些资产。
英文原文
I'm long Bitcoin at $114k, but sell Ethereum at $4.2k. I don't think I said to buy ETH anywhere above $3k+. $MSTR has historically been trading between 1.6-2x NAV during Bitcoin runs. Recently it's been short MSTR/long BTC, so NAV is under 1.5x and there's potential for recorrection on a Bitcoin run (which usually goes up in Oct). Long term, MSTR probably has the highest likelihood of being nationalized into the US treasury given how much BTC they have. I don't see ETH OR BMNR being a strategic importance for the US gov. Otherwise I'd just recommend longing the underlying asset like BTC, or ETH if you really believed in it compared to buying the asset.
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博主自述为中短期交易者，并看好IBIT长期涨幅。
@bj21QB 是的，我是一名中短期交易者！我尝试择时抄底，并且通常对所有交易缴纳短期资本利得税。否则，你以什么价格买入像 $IBIT 这样的标的其实并不重要，因为我仍然认为它会涨到 50 万美元以上。
英文原文
@bj21QB Yeah, I'm a short-medium term trader! I try to time bottoms and typically take short term capital gains tax on everything. Otherwise, it really wouldn't matter what price you might buy some like $IBIT at since I still think it goes $500k+.
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建议像交易COIN那样波段操作RDDT，并关注其纳入标普500后的趋势变化。
@strandedpsgr 呃，我现在对待它更像对待 $COIN，认为在下次回调时可能再次在 $100 多美元买入 $RDDT。或者像 Coinbase 那样进行 $150 到 $350 的数月期波段交易，但这种趋势在纳入标普500指数(SPY)后可能会改变。
英文原文
@strandedpsgr Uh I treat it more like $COIN at this point where you can probably buy $RDDT in the $100's again next drawndown. Or with Coinbase $150 <-> $350 few month trade, but this trend might change after SPY inclusion.
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根据风险偏好配置高增长股与稳健资产，无需全仓。
如果你想追逐更多收益，我会建议卖出你的“七巨头(Mag7)”去买入像 $NBIS 这样的高增长股票。如果你需要照顾家庭且无法承担任何风险，持有 SPY/QQQ/“七巨头(Mag7)”并让财富随时间缓慢复利增长也无可厚非。答案取决于你的风险承受能力。我对 $NBIS 有十足的信心，但你始终需要考虑那不到1%的黑天鹅(Black Swan)情景。像 $HOOD 这样的股票可能会出现80%的回撤，而“七巨头(Mag7)”的回撤幅度会小一些。此外，没人说你必须全仓！你可以始终只将投资组合的25%分配给某只股票。
英文原文
If you wanted to chase more gains, I'd sell your Mag7 for hypergrowth stocks like $NBIS. If you have a family to take care of and can't take any risk, there's nothing bad about holding SPY/QQQ/Mag7 and just compounding more slowly over time. Answer depends on your risk tolerance. I have full conviction in $NBIS but there's always the <1% black swan scenario you need to consider. There could always be a 80% drawdown in something like $HOOD but something like Mag7 would have a less drawdown. Also nobody said you had to full port! You can always allocate like 25% of your port to a stock
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卖出ASTS获利，看好RKLB全栈发射能力及对标SpaceX的估值潜力。
我是说，我在$ASTS财报后股价跌至约37美元时持有，并在反弹时以26%+的利润卖出？不过我对这只股票了解不够深入，无法给出有依据的观点。就太空股而言，我更偏好$RKLB，因为他们提供类似Starlink的全栈服务，从低轨到中等运力载荷发射，并能在5-10年内规模扩张至SpaceX 3500亿美元的估值。
英文原文
I mean I had $ASTS after the earnings drop to like $37 and sold it for 26%+ or so on recovery? I don't know enough about the stock though to give an informed opinion though. In terms of space stocks, I'd prefer $RKLB just cause they do full stack like starlink type flatelite to medium lift payload launches and can scale to SpaceX's 350B valuation in 5-10 years.
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承认近期波段交易，看好其散户基础，建议长期跟随龙头策略。
@thename1424559 说实话，我最近确实有过从13美元到15美元等区间进行波段交易(swing trading)的“罪过”。我也记得曾在 $BULL 上做过套利(arbitrage)。 但从基本面来看，它们拥有像 $HOOD 那样的散户基础，只是规模较小，因此我认为它可以作为长期投资，采取“跟随龙头”(follow the leader)的策略。 https://t.co/KcUN6mau1j
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@thename1424559 Honestly I've been guilty of swing trading it from 13 -> 15, etc recently. And I remember doing arbitrage on $BULL too But fundamentally, they have the retail base like $HOOD, but on a smaller scale so I can see it being a good long term investment playing follow the leader. https://t.co/KcUN6mau1j
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计划研究GPUS，并倾向投资粉丝高确信度的小盘股。
@JuveCapital 我需要研究一下 $GPUS。我时不时看到有人提到它，但还没仔细看过。如果粉丝有很高的确信度，我确实喜欢把钱投在随机的小盘股上。
英文原文
@JuveCapital I will need to look into $GPUS. I've seen it be mentioned time to time but I haven't looked closer into it. I do like throwing money at random small caps if followers have high conviction.
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警告勿做空PLTR/TSLA等邪教股，建议高位卖出TSLA寻找更好机会。
@LiquidB_B 像 $PLTR、$TSLA 这样的“邪教股”是不做空(Cult Stocks)的。因为普通散户会不看基本面(Fundamentals)就把工资往里投。我在 $150 时持有过 TSLA，但在我看来，在这些价位我绝不会碰，并且会卖出。其他地方有更好的机会。
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@LiquidB_B There's cult stocks like $PLTR, $TSLA that you don't short. BC regular ppl will put their paychecks into them without looking at fundamentals. I had TSLA at $150 but wouldn't ever touch at these levels and would sell it imo. Better opportunities elsewhere.
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分享交易决策逻辑，助读者学习波段交易与抄底技巧。
@ElectroSalamanc 谢谢！我看到很多这类买入/卖出(Buy/Sell)风格的帖子，但几乎没人真正解释原因。所以我认为分享基于今日价格波动+催化剂(catalysts)的每笔交易背后的推理逻辑会有所帮助。这类小事有助于人们随着时间推移学习波段交易(swing trading)和抄底时机(bottom timing)。
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@ElectroSalamanc Thanks! I see a lot of these Buy/Sell style posts but nobody really posts why. So I thought it would help to post reasoning behind each one based on today's price movements + catalysts. Little things like this help people learn swing trading + bottom timing over time.
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质疑LTC在ETF获批前夕价格低迷的原因。
@robswainept 让我百思不得其解的是，在10月2日即将批准ETF之际，$LTC 的价格为何仅为106美元。
英文原文
@robswainept How $LTC is $106 when there's an ETF approval Oct 2nd is an enigma to me.
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认为ETOR被错估，偏好冷门股，指出市场过度拥挤于BMNR和NBIS。
@MakhmudovAkbar 哈哈，我认为市场完全错误定价了 $ETOR，现在可能正在进行大量的税务收割(tax harvesting)。 我尝试寻找像 ETOR 和 VIRT 这样人们不太关注的标的，它们通常表现不错。感觉 X 上的所有人都在关注 $BMNR 或 $NBIS。
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@MakhmudovAkbar Yeah lol, I think the market is completely pricing $ETOR wrong and it's probably a lot of tax harvesting going on right now. I try and find stuff people don't really touch much like ETOR and VIRT and they usually play out well. Feels like everyone on X is on $BMNR or $NBIS
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分享CIFR期权盈利并看涨至16美元
@Neat_Lama 我也是！自周五以来，我的一张 $CIFR 期权合约已上涨 $12k。仍然认为它会反弹至 $16。https://t.co/4IbuWFsvaA
英文原文
@Neat_Lama Same here! One of my $CIFR strikes is up $12k since Friday. Still think it rallies to $16. https://t.co/4IbuWFsvaA
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解释持有IREN的逻辑，认为长线持有无需纠结短期择时。
@chickvestor 我的意思是，我周五在 $40 买入的 $IREN 至今仍在持有。我个人不喜欢在单日涨幅 9.72% 后追高，所以这是基于今日的价格。我常尝试抄底，但如果持有一年，现在买入并等待 $70 也无妨。
英文原文
@chickvestor I mean I bought $IREN on Friday at $40 and still have it. Personally not a fan of buying after a 9.72% day so this is based on today's prices I try to time the bottom a lot but if you're holding for a year, doesn't matter if you buy now and wait for $70 https://t.co/ls4L5BDxgq
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看好GAP基本面及假日效应，需进一步研究关税影响。
@camrinneiss 乍一看，我看好 $GAP，因为其基本面良好，且能像 $LULU 一样受益于年底假日季节效应。另外，我喜欢 Banana Republic 的羊绒产品，所以有点偏好。但显然需要更多时间深入研究关税对未来收入的影响。
英文原文
@camrinneiss First glance, I $GAP since fundamentals are good and it benefits from end of year holiday seasonality like $LULU. Also I like banana republic cashmere stuff so a bit biased. But obviously need more time to delve into tariff impact a bit more on forward revenue
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博主发布周一收盘观点，列出多只美股的买卖评级及具体逻辑。
周一收盘思考： 极强买入 $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT 买入 $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA 持有 $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO 卖出 $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR 强烈卖出 $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ 欢迎持不同意见，但这只是我的个人看法。 极强买入理由 - 买入约7万美元的Virtu看涨期权，隐含波动率28%，远期市盈率仅6.6倍，被低估。 - 在通往200美元的路上，每次回调都定投NBIS。 - ETOR在39美元时严重被低估。我不明白它怎么跌到那的。如果我没记错，市值33亿，现金储备超7亿，复利增长类似IBKR而非HOOD/BULL，但股价却直线跌破IPO价。 - LTC ETF批准在即（3-4天内），概率95%。除非被拒，现在是绝佳买点。 买入理由 - 今天买入5万美元以上Amazon看涨期权，回调至219美元以上后复苏前景看好。受益于10月至1月的年底季节性效应。10月8日Prime Day。可能再次回调，因此适合定投而非极强买入。 - SMCI仍预测55%的远期营收增长，季度营收超50亿，有点被低估。 - TGT下个月分红。有些Target事件，但我觉得不如Amazon Prime Day重要。 - CRM图表上看刚触底，基本面没太大变化。 - TSM在273美元更好，虽然总是好买点，但不像250美元以下那样极具吸引力。 - CRDO/ALAB，两者大幅回调。更像是修正而非崩盘，因此再次成为不错的买点。 - SG，不知道。我只是喜欢他们的沙拉，考虑到不久前交易价40美元，8美元的风险回报比不错。 - CIFR，GOOGL背书，现在看执行。我会逢低买入，但今天大涨了。 - LULU受益于10月至1月的年底季节性假日购物。 - SLNH，据说X上有关于波浪的讨论。市值很小约1亿美元，风险回报比似乎可以。 - ORCL，以140亿美元折扣估值持有TikTok美国大量股份，且来自OpenAI/MSFT的远期营收众多。就像AVGO一样，财报后可能回调，然后一两个月后迎来猛烈反弹。 - MSTR，比特币10月表现良好。被做空，所以溢价率可能在1.4x-1.5x，相比炒作时的2x。 - RIOT/MARA转向HPC，所以我比之前更喜欢它们。 持有股票没什么变化 - Hood，我个人做日内交易，所以如果我认为在单日上涨12.27%的130美元以上卖出是好的，别介意。 - TSLA，脱离基本面的信仰股。 - RDDT，我在100美元时持有大量，现在240美元或450亿市值不会买，所以可能会卖出/三角套利。 - CRCL，直接买Coinbase。 - PLTR，脱离基本面的信仰股，大部分利润只是利息收入。 - BMNR，如果你想买就买ETH，但ETH在4000美元以上也是强烈卖出。 强烈卖出 任何营收极少但市值100-200亿以上的股票我觉得很可笑。如果你从8美元持有OKLO到116美元，向你致敬。
英文原文
Monday Market Close Thoughts: Extremely Strong Buy $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT Buy $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA Hold $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO Sell $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR Strong Sell $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ Feel free to disagree but these are just my thoughts Strong Buy Explanations - Bought ~$70K of Virtu calls, 28% IV and just 6.6 forward p/e is undervalued. - Always DCA NBIS on the road to $200 on every dip. -ETOR is just way too undervalued at $39 imo. I don't even know how it hit that. If I remember correctly $700M+ cash pile on a 3.3B market cap, compounding similar rate to IBKR instead of HOOD/BULL but just straight line down below IPO price. - LTC ETF approval in 3-4 days with 95% odds. Great buy now unless it gets rejected ofc. Buy Explanations - Bought $50k+ Amazon calls today, looks more promising for recovery on the dip to $219+. Benefits from end of year seasonality from Oct - > Jan. Prime Day Oct 8th. Could dip again which is why it's good to DCA and not an extremely strong buy. - SMCI still projecting 55% forward revenue growth and it's kinda undervalued doing 5B+ quarterly revenue lol - TGT dividend in another month. There's some Target event but don't really think it matters as much as Amazon prime day. - CRM just bottoming chart wise, fundamentals not really changed - TSM better at $273, it's always a good buy but not a screaming buy like sub $250 - CRDO/ALAB, both dipped a lot. More of a correction rather than crash, which is why it's a decent buy agian. - SG, idk. I just like their salad and think risk reward at $8 is good considering they were trading $40 not too long ago. - CIFR, GOOGL backstopped now just execution. I'd buy on dips but today was a big rally - LULU benefits from Oct -> Jan end of year seasonality with holiday shopping. - SLNH, apparently waves have been going around X. Pretty small $100m marketcap or so, risk reward seems okay. - ORCL, they're a large shareholder of TikTok US at a discounted 14B valuation and have tons of forward rev from OpenAI/MSFT. It's one of those things where it probably dips after earnings like AVGO then pulls off a face ripping rally a month or two later. - MSTR, Bitcoin does well in Oct. Been shorted so Nav prem is probably around 1.4x-1.5x compared to 2x like during hype waves -RIOT/MARA pivoted to HPC so I like them more than before For hold stocks nothing really changed - Hood, I personally day trade so don't be offended if I think it's a good sell $130+ on a 12.27% increase day. - TSLA, cult stock detached from fundamentals - RDDT, I had a lot back at $100 wouldn't buy at $240 or 45B marketcap now so would probably sell/tri. - CRCL, just buy Coinbase instead - PLTR, cult stock detached from fundamentals, large part of their profit is just interest income - BMNR, just buy ETH if you want but ETH is a strong sell at $4k+ Strong Sell Anything carrying barely any rev with 10-20B+ marketcap I think is amusing . Props to you if you held OKLO from $8 to $116 though.
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UPWK估值极佳，VIRT潜力较小需看期权。
@mattscottcap 是的，$UPWK 在 20 美元时依然具有极佳的估值，但 13 美元时感觉被极度低估。我现在对 $VIRT 也有类似的感觉，但除非你接触期权，否则其上涨潜力要小得多。
英文原文
@mattscottcap Yeah $UPWK is still great value at $20 but $13 just felt extremely undervalued. Feel something similar about $VIRT now, but upside potential is a lot less unless you touch options. https://t.co/ZzF4IlJXdf
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认为NBIS估值偏低，建议当前加仓。
@blankeymonkey $NBIS 相对于远期营收/利润被严重低估。目前是很好的加仓标的。
英文原文
@blankeymonkey $NBIS is incredibly undervalued relative to forward revenue/earnings. Great add currently