· 个股论点
我之前写过，简而言之是 $FLY 正在与诺斯罗普·格鲁曼(Northrop)合作开发可重复使用的中型运载火箭，而由 $NOC 共同开发将降低任何执行风险。在俄乌战争导致其供应链崩溃之前，NOC 就已经拥有成熟的 expendable medium-lifts（一次性中型运载火箭）。NOC + Fly = 即插即用的中型运载火箭基本就绪，他们只需将其改为可重复使用即可。我的论点(Thesis)是，Fly 可以通过依托诺斯罗普的可重复使用中型运载火箭发射器，跳过自行构建成功小型运载火箭的过程，从而与猎鹰9号(Falcon 9)竞争。如果他们在 2026-2027 年成功实现，市值从 30-40 亿增长 5-10 倍是有可能的。此外，我认为市场并未计入诺斯罗普执行此计划的可能性，因为人们只关注 FLY 的失败，但 NOC 是最大的政府航空航天承包商之一。
I wrote about it earlier but a TLDR was $FLY was working with Northrop on reuable medium lift and having $NOC co-developing it would reduce any execution risk. NOC had working expendable medium-lifts already before Russia-Ukraine war and their supply chain fell apart. NOC + Fly = Working medium lift plug and play med kinda ready to go, they just needed to make it re-usable. Thesis was Fly can leapfrog building successful small-lift themselves by piggy backing off of Northrop on reusable medium-lift launchers to complete with falcon9 and upside on a 3-4B marketcap could be 5-10x if they got it to work in 2026-2027. I also didn't think markets were pricing in Northrop executing on this cause they just keep pointing to FLY's failures but, NOC is one of the largest government aerospace contractors.