· 方法论
我刚才提到，由于流通盘（float）低，SPAC IPO 的普通股经常会出现 600%-1000% 的惊人回报，而认股权证（warrants）则无法享受这种收益。我们还看到过其他低流通盘 IPO 的类似走势，比如 Newsmax 因低流通盘上涨 500%。认股权证无法像普通股那样放大收益，因为它们在行权时会考虑稀释效应，且其他锁定期（lockups）结束后也会产生稀释。因此我有时会进行认股权证套利，且它们经常定价偏低。例如 Bull 的认股权证曾以每股 $16 交易，而股价为 $80；当时 Bull 股价 $29、认股权证 $13.5 时是可以对冲的。我需要进一步研究流通盘规模，但我的观点是：我宁愿错过认股权证的杠杆，也不愿错过低流通盘 IPO 的 500% 暴涨。我的意思是，500% 的收益可能优于长期持有的 200%，但如果流通盘充足，我也会考虑认股权证（这点我需要进一步研究）。
I was just saying some hilarious 600%-1000% returns happen a lot on SPAC ipo’s with shares because of low float and you miss out on it with warrants vs. shares. We also saw some other low float moves with IPOs like Newsmax up 500% on low float. And warrants don’t scale with shares because they consider in dilution after warrants and other lockups can be exercised. Hence why I do warrant arbitrage sometimes and why they’re underpriced a lot of time. Like warrants on bull were trading at $16 per bull share while share price was $80 on bull. Hedging was available at the time when bull was $13.5 a warrant and shares were $29 I’ll need to do more research on float size but my point was in general I’d rather miss out on warrant leverage than a 500% pop on low float IPOs. And a 500% gain is probably better than 200% after a long time was my point, but if there’s a decent amount of float I’d do warrants too (I’ll need to look into this more)