个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2504 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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分析$RBRK基本面与估值，认为其是网络安全板块好买点，但非最佳机会。
所以人们几乎每隔一条帖子就问起 $RBRK，我知道它在 X 上很火。 为了让大家别再问（我也在 $82 买入了一些 Rubrik），我最终去研究了一下它。 我的研究 TLDR（太长不看版）： - 网络安全公司（该行业估值倍数极高，参考 $CRWD 或 $NET） - 80% 的毛利率（很棒） - ARR（年度经常性收入）超 10 亿美元，同比增长 40-50%（很棒） （对比 NET，ARR 约 22 亿+，同比增长 22%，市值几乎是其 5 倍） - 运营支出 (OpEx)：60-75% 的收入用于营销。这是一个巨大的积极信号。 运营营销支出虽好，但短期看起来很难看，例如 $HOOD 给客户 3% 转账奖励时，这会伤害短期财报，因为具有误导性且没多少人做拆解；但长期来看，当削减支出时，客户粘性高，这对盈利能力帮助很大。 自由现金流 (FCF) 为正，但运营支出分解主要是营销，这是好事，不同于 Snapchat 的谷歌云运营支出。 - 客户基础多元化，像 Cloudflare（如高盛、百事、埃森哲等）。 缺点： - 资产负债表不是最好，约 11 亿美元债务用于资助收购。至少是为了收购。 - 不喜欢其远期收入数字放缓了 20-25%，相比之下 $NBIS 明年增长 700% 或更多。显然不公平比较，但这就是为什么我更看好 Neoclouds（新云基础设施）。 _ 看起来是一个不错的中期持有标的，计划很简单 -> 扩大客户群 -> 缩减营销 + 高粘性客户群 -> 赶上网络安全行业估值倍数并拥有更高的 FCF。 通常这类高毛利率（如 $HOOD 在 $18 时，增长 ~50% y/y）且实现盈利的成长型公司，重估 (re-rate) 幅度最大。 $RBRK 只需在未来减少营销支出，突然就会因为其粘性客户群拥有大量 FCF。 TLDR：网络安全板块的好买点，但其他地方有更好的机会。
英文原文
So people keep asking me about $RBRK almost every other post and I know it's really popular on X. I ended up looking into it so people stop asking (and added some Rubrik to my portfolio at $82). TLDR my own research: - Cybersecurity company (industry trades at extremely high multiples, look at $CRWD or $NET) - 80% gross margins (great) - $1B+ ARR, grew 40-50% Y/Y (great) (comparison to NET, ~2.2B+ ARR, growing 22% Y/Y, almost 5x the MC) - OpEx spend: 60-75% of revenue goes to marketing. This is a huge positive. OpEx marketing spend is great but it looks really bad short term eg. $HOOD when they give customers 3% to transfer, it hurts short term in earnings reports bc it's deceptive and not many people do the breakdown but long term when they cut back on spend, customers are sticky and this helps a lot with profitability. FCF was positive, but breakdown of opex expenses was mainly marketing, which is a good thing, unlike Snapchat google cloud opex. - Diversified client base like Cloudflare (eg. goldman, pepsi, accenture, etc). Downsides: - Balance sheet not the best, $1.1B debt or so to fund acquisitions. At least it's about acquisitions. - Don't like how their forward revenue numbers slowed down 20-25% compared to something like $NBIS growing like 700% or something more for next year. Obviously unfair comparison, but that's why I liked Neoclouds more. _ Looks like a good mid term hold with a pretty simple plan -> scale customer base -> scale back marketing + sticky base -> catch up to industry multiples in cybersecurity and hv higher FCF. Usually these types of growth companies with high gross margins (eg. $HOOD back at $18, growing ~50 y/y) that turn profitable, re-rate the hardest. $RBRK just gotta spend less on marketing down the road and suddenly they have a lot of fcf with their sticky customer base. TLDR: Great buy for cybersecurity sector, better opportunities elsewhere.
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解析$NBIS全栈优势及分部估值，给出$400目标价，对比$CIFR/$IREN。
我仍持有6位数的随机$CIFR期权，但信心不高。 简短总结我对$NBIS比其他公司更有信心的原因： -Nebius是全栈式(full-stack) -> 利润率更高（GPU利用率的软件编排，我们曾讨论过其重要性，以及从$ORCL建设失败中建立的护城河，还有$CRWV收购大量软件公司的原因）。 -分部估值(sum of parts)（例如FTX投资Anthropic、$HOOD，它们在几年内都上涨了1000%）即使利润率受压，也能比主营业务更持久，且$NBIS在Clickhouse等优秀公司中持有大量股份。 -更分散的客户群（也从$ORCL那里学到了其重要性）用于建设->使用，相比其他Neoclouds。 高置信度$400目标价，牛市情景下1年内$1000亿市值。 我也做多$IREN等，仅因其电力容量，或$CIFR作为“轻量版Nebius”在融资+Mag7客户方面，但这与我坚信一家公司vs认为其基本面将跑赢略有不同。
英文原文
I still have 6fig in random $CIFR strikes but not high conviction. Short TLDR on why I have high conviction in $NBIS compared to others is because -Nebius is full stack -> higher margin (software orchestration for GPU utilization, we why that's important and a moat from $ORCL build-out failure, and why $CRWV bought out a lot of software companies). -sum of parts (eg. FTX investing in Anthropic, $HOOD, where they all went up 1000% over a few years) can outlast a main business even if margins got compressed and $NBIS has a large stake in great companies like Clickhouse -more diversified client base (learned from $ORCL why that's important too) for buildout -> usage compared to other Neoclouds. High conviction $400 PT, $100B MC in 1Y for a bull case. I'm long stuff like $IREN too just because of their power capacity or $CIFR being Nebius-light in terms how they did fundraising + Mag7 client but it's slightly different me believing in a company vs. thinking they will outform from fundamentals.
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博主首次公开高确信度持仓列表，详解6只核心多头及1只百倍潜力股的建仓逻辑。
这是我首次发布我的高确信度持仓列表。 这是我的6只最高确信度多头持仓，以及1只新的1000%潜力“登月”标的🚀 按首次买入时间及我建立确信度的时机/原因排序。 5年持仓： $RKLB ($16 | $28) $TSM ($120 | $245) $HOOD ($11.27 | $18) $BTC ($3k | $57k) 2年持仓： $NBIS ($28 | $99) $ALAB ($55 | $95) 1000%登月标的（确信度不如其他，但我认为它最有希望实现10倍增长） $WLAC ($13 | $13) 以下是观点变化的原因： 1. $RKLB -> 自特朗普宣布成立太空军以来，我就知道太空行业正在快速增长。当时我想投资SpaceX，但没有替代选择。 所以当$RKLB在Reddit上开始流行时，我买了它。他们在小型运载火箭方面有很高的成功率，但除此之外没什么特别的。 几个月后股价达到$28左右时，他们开始开发中型有效载荷，SpaceX以3500亿美元估值完成了一轮大额融资，我开始看到RocketLab在5年或10年（当时正在开发Neutron）内市值增长的潜力，并由此建立了确信度。 2. $TSM -> 我一直知道台积电(TSMC)对半导体至关重要，但因台湾地缘政治风险而未建立大仓位。但在~$245时，美国开始了关乎国家安全的最大规模AI基础设施建设，$NVDA等公司创下历史新高。 这一切的核心是$TSM。我认为如果它是美国公司，估值将超过3万亿美元。 3. $BTC -> 我一直喜欢比特币，大学时朋友向我介绍。我曾用它支付数字商品，因为当时的PayPal不支持匿名支付，我也不喜欢向商家透露身份。 我一直喜欢比特币作为价值存储/支付手段，但当美国政府+美联储最终支持比特币作为黄金的替代品时，它变成了高确信度持仓。 我有一篇关于美国政府为何对比特币+稳定币有战略利益的长篇论文，改天再发。 4. $HOOD -> 金融基础设施已破碎。业内人尽皆知。 我喜欢Robinhood，因为我认识的散户用户都在用。作为一家金融科技公司的运营者，他们开发产品的速度（甚至与初创公司相比）令人惊叹。 从信用卡产品到银行服务，再到投资，他们确实让一切变得更好，然后直接向其庞大的用户群发布产品。 当然，与半导体/超大市值公司相比，金融科技公司的增长有上限，但如果其银行服务成功并持续创新，未来可能成为一家6000亿美元+的公司。 _ 1. $NBIS - 起初我承认自己在不看基本面情况下进行了波段交易。一切在Mag7开始与所有Neoclouds签约，特别是微软与Nebius签署170亿-190亿美元合同时发生了改变，这完全赋予了它新的重估逻辑。我开始研究基本面和他们拥有的资产，对其增长率感到震惊。 我相信它在1-2年内轻松达到$400（1000亿+市值）。 2. $ALAB - 许多Mag7公司都在Stargate + AI数据中心建设中使用它们。当然，其营收数字相对于当前市值很小，但其利润率像$NVDA一样，且同比增长100%+，这很惊人。谁知道它们能增长多高。 _ 1. $WLAC - 现在是最有趣的一个，如果我对任何小盘股/仙股有强确信度，那就是这个。Boost已经与Fluidstack合作（后者已为$GOOGL合同构建了$CIFR和$WULF，并将它们的估值提升至40-70亿）。 而在目前6亿美元IPO下，这很容易增长到[某公司]的市值。（之前已发过关于投机基本面的小论文）。因此我认为这是最可能实现1000%增长的标的。 _ 我也提到过$FLY作为潜在1000%标的，或$AMD因OpenAI 1000亿+远期收入而成为绝佳买入，但这与单纯相信公司/资产的高确信度略有不同。
英文原文
This is the first time I'm posting my high conviction list. These are my 6 highest conviction longs and 1 new 1000% moonshot🚀 Sorted by first bought and ~when/why I developed conviction. 5 Years: $RKLB ($16 | $28) $TSM ($120 | $245) $HOOD ($11.27 | $18) $BTC ($3k | $57k) 2 Years: $NBIS ($28 | $99) $ALAB ($55 | $95) 1000% Moonshot (don't have high conviction like the others, but I included this I currently believe this has the best chance to 10x) $WLAC ($13 | $13) Here's what changed: 1. $RKLB -> I knew Space was rapidly growing since Trump announced Space force. I wanted to invest in SpaceX at the time but there was no alternative. So I bought $RKLB when it started getting popular on Reddit. They had a high success rate with small-lift, but aside from that there wasn't anything special. Around the $28 mark a few months later, they started developing a medium-lift payload, SpaceX raised a large round at $350B, and I started seeing the potential for RocketLab to grow in that marketcap whether it's 5 years or 10 years (when they were developing Neutron) and I developed my conviction around it. 2. $TSM -> Always knew that TSMC was fundamental to semiconductors, but didn't build large positions because of Taiwan geopolitical risk. But around ~$245, America began the biggest build-out of AI infrastructure critical to national security with $NVDA and others hitting all time highs. In the center of it all, there's $TSM. I believe if it's an America company, it would be valued at $3T+. 3. $BTC -> I always liked Bitcoin, my friends introduced it to me back in college. I used it to pay for digital goods and stuff because Paypal at the time didn't have anonymous payments, and I didn't like sharing my identity to merchants. I've always liked Bitcoin as a store of value/payment, but when the US government + Fed finally supported Bitcoin as a alternative to Gold, it changed to high conviction. I have a whole really long thesis about why US Gov has a strategic interest in Bitcoin + Stablecoins but I'll post it another day. 4. $HOOD -> Financial infrastructure is broken. Everyone in the industry knows it. I liked Robinhood because all the retail users I know use it. And as someone who runs a fintech company, the speed at which they developed products (even compared to Startups), is astonishing. From credit card products, to banking, to investing, they've actually made everything better and then just ships products to their already-large userbase. Of course, there's an upper-cap in how large fintechs grow compared to semi/mega-cap, etc, but it could be a $600B+ company in the future if their banking products succeed and they continue with innovation. _ 1. $NBIS - I'm guilty of swing trading it without looking at fundamentals near the beginning. Everything changed, when Mag7 started signing deals with all the Neoclouds, and Microsoft signing a 17B-19B deal with Nebius completely gave it a new-rerating. I started looking into fundamentals, the assets they own, and I was blown away at their growth rate. I believe it could be easily be $400 (100B+ marketcap) in 1-2 years. 2. $ALAB - They're used by so many Mag7 companies for the Stargate + AI data center buildout. Of course, their revenue numbers are small compared to their current MC but their Margins are like NVDA and they're growing at 100%+ Y/Y, which is amazing. Who knows how high they'll grow. _ 1. $WLAC - Now for the fun one, if I had to have strong conviction any small cap/penny stock, it would be this. Boost already works with Fluidstack (which built $GOOGL contracts with $CIFR and $WULF already, and boosted their valuations to 4-7B). And at a $600m IPO now, this could easily grow to 's marketcap. (already made a small thesis post earlier about speculative fundamentals). Hence why I believe this is the most likely 1000% out of anything. _ I mention other things like $FLY as a potential 1000% too or $AMD as a great buy due to OpenAI 100B+ forward revenue but it's slightly different compared to having high conviction in terms of just believing in the company/asset.
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地缘缓和与加密清算引发大跌，视为逢低买入机会
局势缓和了。 路透社：“台湾称芯片行业未受显著影响” 特朗普：“别担心中国，一切都会好起来……习主席只是经历了一个糟糕的时刻。” 史上最大规模的加密货币清算事件 受冲击较小的股票下跌7% 逢低买入的机会 https://t.co/2sUEV7Dg8s
英文原文
And there’s the de-escalation Reuters: “Taiwan sees no significant impact on chip sector” Trump: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine… President Xi just had a bad moment.” Biggest crypto liquidation to date Stocks with little impact down 7% Dip buying opportunity https://t.co/2sUEV7Dg8s
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博主补充了RDDT、AMD、VIRT及锂稀土股的买入价位与逻辑。
@Hoona1203 因为 X 帖子字数限制，我没能列出所有股票代码。否则，$RDDT 在 192 美元是买入点，$AMD 在 210 美元是买入点，$VIRT 在 33 美元是买入点（与其说是作为单一多头头寸，不如说是作为良好的对冲工具，且我认为其被低估 + 将在财报中体现），锂-稀土股票也是买入标的，等等。
英文原文
@Hoona1203 I ran out of tickers because X post limits, otherwise $RDDT was a buy at $192, $AMD was a buy at $210, $VIRT is a buy at $33 (not so much as single long but as a good hedge and I believe this undervalued + will show up in earnings), lithium-rare earth stocks are a buy and so on.
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建议小仓位配置该锂电小盘股，基本面未变。
这是一家市值仅7500万美元的锂电池公司，请不要像那样全仓押注小盘股，除非你有极高的确信度，否则建议最多配置5-10%的仓位。好在承销商在1.25美元时买入，所以它可能只是受宏观问题波及。据我所知，基本面没有实质性变化。
英文原文
It’s small $75m market cap lithium battery company, pls don’t full port small caps like that maybe like 5-10% of your portfolio max unless you have high conviction. On the bright side underwriters bought at $1.25, so it was probably just caught in the macro issues. Nothing materially changed afik
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建议买入AMD，降级MU为持有，关注宏观风险。
对于像 $AMD 这样的半导体股，当其与 OpenAI 的 1000 亿美元合同开始放量时，是未来 1 年的买入时机。 有评论提到 $MU，由于相比 $TSM 等公司，$MU 在中国拥有大量的 DRAM/NAND 存储业务，因此受中国争端的影响更为实质性地类似于 $QLCM。所以我会将其降级为持有。 当然，鉴于特朗普是个变数，我不确定宏观风险会如何演变，如果紧张局势缓和，估值将会重新调整。
英文原文
For semis like $AMD it’s a buy for 1Y out when the 100B contract with OpenAI starts ramping up. Some other comment mentioned $MU, they’re more materially affected like $QLCM is to China disputes bc of large dram/nand for memory over there compared to something like $TSM. So would dg it to hold. Of course I’m not sure how macro risk will play out with Trump being a wild card and all, if tensions ease up things would be re-rated
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基于周五大跌，列出AI/加密/太空股买卖清单，看好Neocloud及算力基建。
基于周五收盘（SPY跌3.6%）的思考与解释 强烈买入 $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM （针对明年） $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP 买入 $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL 持有 $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR 卖出 $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY 强烈卖出 $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ 解释： IBIT - 跌至10.4万美元，比特币需求来自机构，关税担忧被夸大，并引发了历史上最大的清算事件之一。在我看来，清算后是购买加密货币的最佳时机。Polymarket仍定价年底有55%几率达到13万美元，但无论如何，比特币长期来看总是好的买入标的。 LTC - 单日下跌24%。使用10倍杠杆的人可能在抢先交易ETF并在交易所被清算。这可能是我见过的在98美元以下买入的最佳时机，因为政府停摆结束后ETF可能会获批。 WLAC - 由于与Fluidstack（帮助WULF和CIFR获得GOOGL背书的公司）的合作，以6亿美元估值成为有史以来最好的Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000%机会之一，而这两家公司估值为40-70亿美元。作为背景，他们将在Q4 IPO，所以你可能需要等待约2个月。 NBIS - 我持有信心最强的买入标的，明年任何Neocloud中都有400美元的激进目标价。 MP - 稀土的国家安全风险（+其他从勘探到锂电池的稀有材料股票表现可能会很好）。 TSM - 所有AI基础设施的骨干 _ 强烈买入的税务收割股票池 （可能需要等到明年） ETOR - 在38美元处严重超卖，可能是正在进行的税务收割事件叠加亏损。 DKNG - 本质上是一只成长股。鉴于市值，营收数据惊人，但他们处于年度低点-15%。可能受不受宏观影响的税务收割影响。 SNAP - 如果你读过我的论点，他们130亿美元的市值对应13亿美元的季度营收……我相信在降低运营支出+通过货币化GCP存储增加营收后，他们明年会重新评级。这只是市场何时定价的问题，但这需要1年以上。后投资者没有耐心。再次，可能受至今表现导致的年底税务收割影响。 _ 买入 UPWK - 昨日下跌4.5%，基本面极佳，~8亿同比营收，70%~或80%~的毛利率在增长，2亿回购，22亿市值。可能受罗素指数抛售影响。 CRDO - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 ALAB - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 AMZN - 虽然受到100%中国关税的实质性影响，但他们不会失去任何东西，因为成本会转嫁给商户或客户。 META - 可能因中国关税导致广告收入减少（例如，像Temu这样的中国供应商可能不会购买广告位），但仅基于-6%的1个月低点+作为落后于亚马逊的Mag7成员，我更看好它。 UNH - 医疗保健不太受100%中国关税或稀土影响。 SG - 下跌可能由于表现不佳+税务收割，但它几乎是1倍市销率（P/S）哈哈。 TGT - 我会将其列为强烈买入，因为股息催化剂+刚刚触及5年低点，但尚未对中国关税对该股票的影响做足够的研究。 BULL - 以与HOOD相似的速率增长，其基本面对于市值来说并不完全出色，但你会基于零售客户群和未来货币化潜力进行投资。 FLY - 我之前做过DD，但中型有效载荷很可能在2027年与诺斯罗普合作成功，这需要大量的耐心以换取潜在的1000%回报。 CIFR - Neocloud交易，始终看涨。像Meta X CRWV一样，更多细节可能很快公布。 WULF - Neocloud交易看涨。 IREN - Neocloud交易看涨。他们的融资轮次价格如果我记得没错的话是其股价的70%+，这是一个看涨信号（例如NBIS和CIFR在融资轮次后都达到了这一点）。 GLXY - Neocloud交易的一部分。 MRVL - 市场尚未充分定价其像NVDA一样56%的同比增长。 SMCI - 数据中心/星门建设 DELL - 数据中心/星门建设 _ 卖出 CRCL - 我会不断重复这一点，除非Circle能展示其能在利息收入之外货币化USDC，否则COIN优于Circle。因为COIN实际上获得50%的收入分成，再加上其平台上100%的收入。 ETH - 我会不断重复这一点，但我个人不会在3000美元以上买入。所以即使它下跌16%（你可以尝试波段交易，反弹至4000美元+），也始终有继续级联下跌至3000美元以下的风险，我已经数不清历史上发生过多少次了。 BMNR - 基本面与ETH挂钩。 PL - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 BKSY - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 强烈卖出 RGTI - 市值与估值极度脱节 OKLO - 市值与估值极度脱节 IONQ - 市值与估值脱节 QBTS - 市值与估值脱节 QUBT - 市值与估值脱节 显然存在中美贸易战的宏观压力，但这都不是新信息（中国稀土出口管制已为人所知一段时间+美国已经对中国商品征收关税） 我们正走向定价为70%的两次更多降息，以及大幅修正以清洗高估的泡沫并清算杠杆（例如加密货币），这将帮助市场走向更高的高点。我将始终推荐股票，因为对于好公司，如果你等待足够长的时间，它们可能会跑赢（但如果出现随机的宏观风险，短期可能会跑输）。 中期来看，我对Neoclouds在未来一年AI快速建设期间最为看好 -> 机器人/太空可能是之后的下一个前沿。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Neocloud论点：超大规模资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入150万美元+到Neoclouds，以及为什么这可能是200-300%+的回报。 🔹 类别 Mag7合同：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向HPC的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7的AI算力紧张，这是由$NVDA设计导致的。 原本流向AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，现在当他们无法处理来自Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini等的新AI负载时，将流入Neoclouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于使$NVDA成为4万亿美元公司的GPU军备竞赛，关于谁将为未来5-10年的AWS/Azure等提供基础设施。 NBIS（来自MSFT的170亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自GOOGL的30亿）、CRWV（由NVDA背书）都在以百分之几百的速度扩张（NBIS从1.5亿季度营收到可能的15亿+），毛利率为60-80%。 这种营收增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模公司将资本支出注入小公司。 NVDA / TSM (2022->): 超大规模公司的GPU CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): 超大规模公司获胜 -> 抛物线增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN等 (2025 - ) AWS/Azure等 -> 来自AI算力的抛物线增长 这就是如何获得百分之几百的回报，而不是在Paypal上进行价值投资。动量驾驭下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更投机，现在像NBIS这样的公司有40亿+来执行） 人们总是担心执行，但微软或谷歌不会在没有自己尽职调查的情况下签署如此大的5-10年合同。 - 高利率（主要看你CRWV），这就是为什么NBIS、CIFR和其他公司有潜在的惊人回报。 你有40亿+的资金用于$NBIS在138美元+每股（当它是107美元时）。以及$CIFR在16美元+每股的资金当它是11美元时。高于当前价格的融资是一个看涨信号。 - GPU折旧（有效的担忧，但它几乎像石油，即使是旧型号也保持价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果NBIS明年扩展到60亿营收75%毛利率），260亿市值非常小。 - NVDA可能推出自己的GPU即服务并直接竞争。目前这些Neoclouds是NVDA防止对Azure/AWS等集中风险的答案。 - 自定义超大规模芯片如TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求NVDA算力并签署了5-10年合同。 无论如何，像Nebius这样的Neoclouds相对于远期营收/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然非常早期。确保像特朗普选举时的Crypto/TSLA或OpenAI发布时的NVDA一样驾驭Neocloud浪潮。 当然这是高度投机的，我不会建议全仓YOLO，但为Google/MSFT等AI工作负载提供动力的这些5-200亿Neoclouds的风险回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8个月-1年。） 这是2025-2026年最好的非对称AI基础设施交易。
英文原文
Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations Strong Buy $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM (For Next Year) $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP Buy $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL Hold $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR Sell $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY Strong Sell $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ Explanations: IBIT - Dumped to $104k, Bitcoin demand has been institutional, tariff fears overblown, and caused one of the biggest liquidation events in history. IMO post-liquidation is the best time to buy crypto. Polymarket still pricing in 55% chance to $130K EOY, but either way Bitcoin is always a good buy long term. LTC - Down 24% in one day. People on 10X margin were likely frontrunning ETF and got liquidated one exchanges. Probably the best time I've seen to buy sub $98 because ETF will likely get approved when government shutdown stops. WLAC - One of the best Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000% opportunities ever at $600m valuation because of their partnership with Fluidstack (the ones that helps WULF + CIFR get backstopped by GOOGL), and both of those are $4-7B. For context they're IPOing Q4, so you might need to wait ~2 months. NBIS - Strongest conviction buy I've had, $400 aggressive PT for next year out of any Neocloud. MP - National security risk for rare earths (+other rare materials stocks from exploration to Lithium batteries will likely perform well). TSM - Backbone of all AI Infrastructure _ Strong Buy Tax Harvesting Bucket of Stocks (Might need to wait for next year) ETOR - Way too oversold at $38, likely tax harvesting event going on compounding losses. DKNG - Fundamentally a growth stock. Revenue numbers are insane given market cap but they're -15% yearly low. Likely compounded by tax harvesting unaffected by Macro. SNAP - If you read my thesis, they're doing 1.3B quarterly revenue off a 13B marketcap... I'm convinced they will re-rate next year after lowering opex + increasing revenue from monetizing GCP storage. It's just a matter of when the market will price this in, but this is 1Y+ out. Post investors aren't patient. Again likely affected by EOY tax harvesting due to performance so far. _ Buys UPWK - Down 4.5% from yesterday, amazing fundamentals, ~800m y/y rev off 70%~ or 80~ gross margins thats growing, 200m buybacks, 2.2B market cap. Likely affected by Russell selloff. CRDO - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. ALAB - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. AMZN - It's materially affected by 100% Chinese tariffs but they won't lose anything, since it gets passed onto the merchant or customers. META - Probably less ad revenue by Chinese tariffs (eg. Chinese vendors like Temu, might not buy adspace), buy just based on -6% 1m low + Mag7 laggard with Amazon, I like it more. UNH - Healthcare not really impacted 100% Chinese Tariff or rare earths. SG - It's down likely due to bad performance + tax harvesting but it's almost 1 P/S lol. TGT - I'd put it Strong Buy due to dividend catalyst + 5Y low just now, but haven't dont enough research on the effect on Chinese tariffs on the stock yet. BULL - Growing at similar rates asHOOD, their fundamentals aren't exactly great for the market cap but you would invest based on retail customer base and the future potential for monetization. FLY - I did a DD on this earlier but Medium Lift Payload likely to succeed with Northrop in 2027, it takes a TON of patience for a potential 1000% moonshot. CIFR - Neocloud trade, always bullish. Like Meta X CRWV, more details likely to come soon. WULF - Neocloud trade bullish. IREN - Neocloud trade bullish. Their funding round was at some number 70%+ of their stock price if I remember correctly, which is a bullish tell (eg. NBIS and CIFR both hit that after their fundraising round). GLXY - Part of Neocloud trade. MRVL - It's not really priced in that it's growing 56% Y/Y like NVDA. SMCI - Data center/stargate buildout DELL -Data center/stargate buildout _ Sell CRCL - I will keep repeating this but COIN is better than Circle unless Circle can show they can monetize USDC outside from interest income. Because COIN literally gets 50% revenue sharing and on top of that 100% of the revenue on its platform. ETH - I will keep repeating this but I will not personally buy above $3000. So even if it dips 16% (you can take the chance of a swing trade, back up to $4k+), there's always the chance it keeps cascading down below $3k and I've lost track of how many times this has happened in history. BMNR - Tied with ETH fundamentally. PL - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. BKSY - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. Strong Sell RGTI - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation OKLO - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation IONQ - market cap disconnected from valuation QBTS - market cap disconnected from valuation -market cap disconnected from valuation There's obviously a macro overhead with China x USA trade wars going on, but none of this was new information (Chinese rare earth export controls have been known for awhile + US has already been tarrifing Chinese goods) We're heading into 2x more rate cuts priced in at 70% and large corrections to cleanse the overvalued froth and liquidate margins (eg. Crypto), will help the market go to higher highs. I will always recommend shares because with good companies, if you wait long enough they will likely outperform (but short term underperform if there's random macro risk). Mid term I'm the most bullish on Neoclouds for the next year during the rapid AI buildout -> Robotics/Space likely next frontier after that.
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IREN盘后剧烈波动，低流动性适合逢低买入。
@antwithastick $IREN 的情况也一样，IREN 先跌了 21%，随后又反弹至正值 +2%，这是我见过最疯狂的事情。盘后低流动性会极大地放大波动，这非常适合逢低买入。
英文原文
@antwithastick Same with $IREN, IREN went down 21% then going back positive +2% was the craziest thing I've seen. After hours low-liquidity exaggerates a ton of movements, and it's great for dip buying.
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无视贸易战影响，逢低买入UNH和DKNG，看好降息与季节性利好。
@ThetaHarvest 即使美国升级对华贸易战，我认为 $UNH 或 $DKNG 根本不在乎，所以我趁回调买入。至于底部在哪，我不清楚。我只是认为再降息两次加上季节性因素是极强的顺风，就像上次关税下调一样，市场会自行理顺。
英文原文
@ThetaHarvest Even if US escalates a trade war with China, I don’t think $UNH or $DKNG cares at all, so took advantage of the dip. Bottom wise, no clue. I just think two more rate cuts and seasonality is an extremely strong tailwind and like the last tariff drop, it will sort itself out
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稀土管制短期利空AMD，但类比四月预期最终和解。
我可能认为 $AMD 的看涨期权应该盈利，因为它是无晶圆厂(fabless)模式，但显然短期内稀土出口管制对半导体行业是一个逆风。这导致了一次轻微的回调以计入该因素，但我认为整体抛售让我想起四月，当时他们达成协议，一切又恢复正常。
英文原文
I might think $AMD calls should print because they’re fabless but obviously near term it’s a headwind to the semi industry with rare earth export controls. This caused a slight correction pricing it in but I think overall selloff reminds me of April where they come to a deal and everything is fine again
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AMD因推文大跌8.2%，作者视其为买入机会。
@LibertadEterno 是的，$AMD 因一条推文下跌 8.2%，对我来说至少是在尖叫着买入机会。我可能会错。
英文原文
@LibertadEterno Yeah, $AMD dropping 8.2% off a tweet is screaming buy opportunity for me at least. I could be wrong
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宏观恐慌提供买入机会，重点阐述$FLY与诺斯罗普合作开发中型火箭的高赔率逻辑。
此外，由于特朗普的一条推文导致宏观恐慌突然重现，$SPY 下跌 1.65% 是一个绝佳的逢低买入机会。 举几个例子： $AMZN - 下跌 3.7% $AMD - 下跌 8.27% $HIMS - 下跌 8% $SNAP - 下跌 5.1% $META - 下跌 3.07% $WLAC 和 $NBIS 始终适合定投(DCA)。 （引用内容）： 自从我在 Reddit 发帖后，很多人询问我的 $FLY 投资逻辑，如下： Firefly 是一家像 $RKLB 这样的火箭公司，正在开发可重复使用的中型运载火箭。 目前唯一存在的只有 SpaceX。 他们目标在 2026-2027 年实现，如果成功，公司市值将重估至 300-700 亿美元，即从当前（44 亿市值）上涨 1000-2000%。 更多细节： 300-700 亿市值的估算基于 $RKLB 的倍数，且仅假设中型运载火箭业务成功。（我忽略了其他业务板块和当前超过 10 亿美元的收入积压订单）。 在中型运载火箭业务上：预计年收入约 9-13 亿美元，在可行的发射节奏（8-12 次）下毛利率为 30-40%。猎鹰系列(Falcon-class)的定价支持这一预期。 所以现在唯一的问题是，FLY 能成功吗？ 在 Firefly 公司最近一次发射失败后，股价下跌 50%，市场已经计入了未来失败的特征。空头指出 Alpha 火箭的失败代表了执行风险。然而，他们完全错误地定价了这种风险…… 他们应该问的问题是，诺斯罗普(Northrop)和 Firefly 能否共同成功？ 这是美国最大的航空航天国防承包商之一诺斯罗普与一家市值仅 40 亿美元的小型发射公司之间的联合开发(CO-DEVELOPMENT)。 诺斯罗普此前确实有自己的中型运载火箭，但不得不终止。诺斯罗普之前的发射器 Antares 230 在俄罗斯 2022 年入侵乌克兰之前是有效的，随后供应链被切断。 然而，诺斯罗普面临生存问题：它无法再制造自己的第一级火箭。因此，为了节省时间，他们寻找一家拥有现成推进系统和结构的美国合作伙伴：Firefly。 -> 动机：Firefly 的 Miranda 发动机提供了即插即用的替代方案，可立即构建中型运载火箭。 现在你拥有一枚将在 2026-2027 年由 Firefly 货币化的中型运载火箭（因为诺斯罗普持有该公司股份），只需使其可重复使用，这是最难的部分。 但诺斯罗普不仅仅是“帮忙”。它在各个方面结构性地降低了风险。诺斯罗普的系统加上 Firefly 的新太空发动机，占据了稀缺且高需求的护城河（美国可重复使用中型运载），已通过 TacRS 和超过 10 亿美元的积压订单以及美国“金穹顶”防御系统催化剂得到验证。 因此，如果 Firefly 在中型运载火箭上成功并建立巨大护城河成为下一个 SpaceX，购买 Firefly 的风险回报是不错的。 （我的投资组合中也有 $RKLB，我只是认为由于中型运载火箭已与诺斯罗普存在，成功实现可重复使用中型运载的机会高于正常水平）。 显然，Rocketlab 实现可重复使用中型运载的成功概率更高，但这已反映在其 320 亿美元以上的市值中，而 Fly 的市值仅为 44 亿。 我认为 $FLY 在当前估值下是一个有趣的 10 倍潜力股，前提是它能在未来一两年内成功。而且我只是真的很喜欢火箭。 我还让 Grok 计算了概率，因为 XAI 由火箭人(Rocketman)本人拥有。 输出： 到 2027 年底，Rocket Lab 有 90%+ 的机会实现可重复使用中型运载飞行（可能在 2026 年中），得益于其先发优势、经过验证的执行力和内部控制。 Firefly/诺斯罗普达到 75-80% 的概率，得益于诺斯罗普的遗产，但受限于 Firefly 较新的运营记录。额外的一年缩小了差距——如果 Antares 330 按时飞行且 Miranda 发动机规模化，Firefly 可能在 2027 年底匹配或超过 Neutron 的节奏。 如果两者都成功（这是一个巨大的假设），RKLB 的市值可能重估至 600 亿美元，$FLY 可能重估至 400 亿美元，仅仅是因为太空 TAM 因国家安全风险和企业部门建设而迅速增加，可能只需再等一年。
英文原文
Also since macro fears randomly appeared today with a Trump tweet, it’s an amazing dip buy opportunity on $SPY 1.65% drop. Just some examples: $AMZN - down 3.7% $AMD - down 8.27% $HIMS - down 8% $SNAP - down 5.1% $META - down 3.07% $WLAC, $NBIS always good to DCA.
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建议核心持仓NBIS，高风险资金可博弈FLY的火箭技术突破。
@rocket5010 不是全仓配置。我只对类似 $NBIS 这样的标的感到安心。 如果你有多余资金，$FLY 如果能在未来一两年内造出可重复使用的中型运载火箭，那简直就是一个字面意义上的10倍潜力股(moonshot)。 风险水平很高，但如果成功了，持有它是一件很有趣的事。
英文原文
@rocket5010 Not a full port. I'd only be comfortable with something like $NBIS. If you have extra, $FLY is just a literal 10x moonshot if they can make a re-usable medium lift rocket in the next year or two. Risk levels are high, but it's a fun thing to own in case it works.
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分析$FLY与诺斯罗普合作开发中型火箭的潜力，认为其风险回报优于$RKLB。
自从我在 Reddit 发帖后，很多人询问我的 $FLY 投资论点，现在分享如下： Firefly 是一家像 $RKLB 这样的火箭公司，正在开发可重复使用的中型运载火箭。 目前唯一存在的竞争对手是 SpaceX。 他们目标在 2026-2027 年实现，如果成功，公司市值将重估至 300-700 亿美元，较当前（44 亿美元市值）增长 1000-2000%。 更多细节： 300-700 亿美元的市值估算基于 $RKLB 的估值倍数，且仅假设中型运载火箭业务成功。（我忽略了其他业务板块和当前超过 10 亿美元的订单积压）。 在中型运载火箭业务上：预计年收入约 9-13 亿美元，在可行的发射节奏（8-12 次）下，毛利率为 30-40%。猎鹰系列火箭的定价支持这一预期。 所以现在唯一的问题是，FLY 能成功吗？ 在 Firefly 最近一次发射失败后，股价下跌 50%，市场已经计入了未来失败的风险。看空者指出 Alpha 火箭的失败代表了执行风险。然而，他们完全错误地定价了这种风险... 他们应该问的问题是：诺斯罗普 (Northrop) 和 Firefly 能否共同成功？ 这是美国最大的航空航天国防承包商之一诺斯罗普，与一家市值仅 40 亿美元的发射公司之间的联合开发 (Co-development)。 诺斯罗普此前曾拥有自己的中型运载火箭，但不得不终止。诺斯罗普之前的发射器 Antares 230 在俄罗斯 2022 年入侵乌克兰之前运行正常，随后供应链被切断。 然而，诺斯罗普面临生存问题：它无法再制造自己的第一级火箭。因此，为了节省时间，他们寻找一家拥有现成推进系统和结构的美国合作伙伴：Firefly。 -> 动机：Firefly 的 Miranda 发动机提供了即插即用的替代方案，可立即构建中型运载火箭。 现在你拥有一枚在 2026-2027 年可由 Firefly 货币化的中型运载火箭（因为诺斯罗普持有该公司股份），只需使其可重复使用，这是最难的部分。 但诺斯罗普不仅仅是“帮忙”。它在各个方面结构性地降低了风险。诺斯罗普的系统加上 Firefly 的新太空发动机，占据了稀缺且高需求的护城河（美国可重复使用中型运载火箭），这已通过 TacRS 和超过 10 亿美元的订单积压以及美国“金穹”防御系统催化剂得到验证。 因此，购买 Firefly 的风险回报比是合理的，前提是公司在中型运载火箭上成功并建立巨大的护城河，成为下一个 SpaceX。 （我的投资组合中也有 $RKLB，但我认为由于中型运载火箭已与诺斯罗普合作存在，成功实现可重复使用中型运载火箭的机会高于正常水平。） 显然，Rocket Lab 实现可重复使用中型运载火箭的成功概率更高，但这已经反映在其 320 亿美元以上的市值中，相比之下 Fly 的市值仅为 44 亿美元。 我认为 $FLY 在当前估值下是一个有趣的 10 倍潜力股，前提是它能在未来一两年内成功。另外，我只是真的很喜欢火箭。 我还让 Grok 计算了概率，因为 XAI 由火箭人 (Rocketman) 本人拥有。 输出： 到 2027 年底，Rocket Lab 有 90% 以上的机会实现可重复使用中型运载火箭飞行（可能在 2026 年中），得益于其先发优势、经过验证的执行力和内部控制。 Firefly/诺斯罗普达到 75-80% 的概率，得益于诺斯罗普的遗产，但受限于 Firefly 较新的运营记录。额外的一年缩小了差距——如果 Antares 330 按时飞行且 Miranda 发动机规模化，Firefly 可能在 2027 年底匹配或超过 Neutron 的节奏。 如果两者都成功（这是一个巨大的假设），RKLB 的市值可能重估至 600 亿美元，$FLY 可能重估至 400 亿美元，只是因为太空 TAM（总可寻址市场）因国家安全风险和企业部门建设而迅速增加，可能只需再等一年。
英文原文
People have been asking for my $FLY thesis since my Reddit post, so here it is: Firefly is a rocket company like $RKLB, and is developing a reusable medium-lift rocket. The only one that exists is SpaceX. They target 2026-2027, and if they succeed, the company would re-rate to a 30-70B market cap, 1000-2000% from here (4.4B MC) More details: The 30-70B marketcap estimate is priced off $RKLB multiples, and only on medium-lift working. (I'm ignoring other business segments and current $1B+ revenue backlog). In a year with medium-lift: ~$0.9–1.3B revenue, with 30–40% gross margins at workable cadence (8–12 flights). Falcon-class pricing support this. So now the only question is, can FLY make it work? After Fly's individual company latest launch failure, the stock dropped 50% and the market is already pricing in the feature of failure. The bears are pointing to Alpha's failures for execution risk. HOWEVER, they're pricing the risk in completely wrong... The question they should be asking is, whether both Northrop + Firefly can make this work? This is a CO-DEVELOPMENT between Northrop, one of America's largest military contractors for Aerospace with some tiny $4B marketcap launch company. Northrop literally had its own medium-lift rocket before but they had to sunset it. Northrop’s prior launcher, Antares 230 worked before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, then the supply chain was cut off. However, Northrop faced an existential problem: it couldn’t build its own first stage anymore. So they went looking for a U.S. partner with ready-made propulsion and structures for the sake of time: Firefly. -> Motivation: Firefly’s Miranda engines offered a plug-and-play replacement to immediately build a medium lift launcher. And now you have a medium lift launcher in 2026-2027 that Firefly monetizes (because Northrop took a stake in the company), just need to make it re-usable, which is the hard part. But Northrop doesn’t just “help.” It structurally lowers risk across every aspect across the board. And Northrop’s system + Firefly’s new-space engines hits a scarce, high-demand moat (U.S. medium-lift with reuse), already validated by TacRS and a $1B+ backlog + US golden dome defense system catalyst. So, risk reward of buying Firefly on the company succeeding on Medium-Lift Launcher and developing a huge moat to be the next SpaceX, is decent. (I also have $RKLB in my portfolio too, I just see the opportunity of succeeding in reusable Medium Lift to be higher than normal because it medium-lift already existed with Northrop). Obviously Rocketlab has a higher probability of success achieving reusable medium lift, but that's already priced into its 32B+ marketcap, compared to a 4.4B Fly marketcap. I just find $FLY to be an interesting 10x moonshot at this valuation in the chance it works in the next year or two. Also I just really like rockets. I also had Grok calculate the odds since XAI is owned by Rocketman himself. _ Output: By end-2027, Rocket Lab has a 90%+ chance of achieving reusable medium-lift flights (likely by mid-2026), driven by their head start, proven execution, and in-house control. Firefly/Northrop reaches 75–80% probability, bolstered by Northrop’s legacy but tempered by Firefly’s newer operational track record. The extra year narrows the gap—Firefly could match or exceed Neutron’s cadence by late 2027 if Antares 330 flies on time and Miranda engines scale. In the event they both get it to work (big if), RKLB could re-rate to $60B marketcap, and $FLY could re-rate to 40B marketcap, just because of TAM of Space rapidly increasing from national security risks and corporate sector buildout, just might need to wait another year.
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Snap 通过优化云成本实现盈利，驱动估值重估而非 AR 眼镜。
我不同意，Snap 是一家社交媒体公司。其收入来自广告，而非 AR 眼镜。 由于 Google Cloud 支出，它们虽然营收高但无法盈利。 它们只需将 Google Cloud 成本转化为收入（它们确实做到了），方法是删除回忆功能并对此收费。 现在它们季度营收超过 14 亿美元，并将最终实现净利润，自由现金流(FCF)增加 8 亿美元以上。 这将导致估值重估，而不是试图制造 Snap 眼镜。
英文原文
Disagree, Snap is a social media company. Its revenue comes from ads, not AR glasses. They have high revenue but are unprofitable because of Google Cloud spend. They just needed to convert that Google Cloud cost into revenue (which they did) by deleting memories + charging for them. Now they do $1.4B+ quarterly revenue and will finally have a net profit from it with +$800M FCF. That will cause the re-rating, not trying to create Snap glasses.
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认为SNAP长期被低估，需等待变现与降本落地，明日将发FLY研报。
$SNAP 在 140 亿市值下基本面被低估，前提是（且仅当）他们实现了 Memories 功能的变现并优化了 Google Cloud 的运营支出（OPex）（预计 1 年后实现）。这只是一场等待市场将其定价的博弈，可能需要一段时间。因此 2027 年是个合理的时间点。我明天早上会发布关于 $FLY 的深度研究（DD）。
英文原文
$SNAP is fundamentally undervalued at 14B marketcap IF AND ONLY IF they monetized memories and optimized Google Cloud OPex (which they will 1y from now). It's just a waiting game until the market prices it in, which could be awhile. So 2027 makes sense. I'll post my $FLY DD tomorrow morning.
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NBIS 机构持仓低，预计回调时机构将大幅买入，半年内或达300美元。
@soulbiri1 @EndicottInvests $NBIS 的机构持股比例也极低，约为 38%，因此他们可能会在任何回调或散户恐慌时尝试买入约 20% 的流通盘（正常水平为 60-75%）。 未来 6 个月内甚至可能触及 300 美元。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 @EndicottInvests The institutional ownership of $NBIS is extremely low as well like 38% so they’ll likely try and buy 20% of the float (~normal is 60-75%) on any dip or retail panic. Might even hit $300 in the next 6 months.
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看好$NBIS营收增长及投资组合潜力，类比$HOOD与$MSFT。
$NBIS 是唯一一家在营收增长上做得完全正确的 Neocloud（新云厂商）。此外，其分部估值之和（Sum of Parts）未来可能高于核心业务，这将推动股价从当前水平上涨 1000% 以上。 像 FTX 那样在扩张过程中进行此类布局的企业，即便在低迷期也价值数千亿美元。（例如，FTX 曾持有 $HOOD、Anthropic、Dave、Solana 和比特币，这些资产均上涨了 1000% 以上）。 我常将其基本面营收与 $HOOD 做比较（$HOOD 季度营收从 1.5 亿美元增至 10 亿美元，估值达 1300 亿美元），因为 $NBIS 在一两年内就会超越这一水平，且起步市值相似。但像 $MSFT 一样，他们在维持核心业务的同时，也做出了 Clickhouse、Toloka、Avride 等优秀投资。
英文原文
$NBIS is the only Neocloud that’s doing everything right growing revenue and on top of that, their sum of parts might be worth more than the core business down the line, which would drive it to 1000%+ from here. Businesses that have done it while scaling like FTX before they went under would be worth hundreds of billions now even in a downturn. (Eg. ftx owned $HOOD, Anthropic, Dave, Solana, Bitcoin that all went up over 1000%+). I often compare the fundamentals revenue wise with HOOD though that went $150m quarterly to $1B quarterly with a $130B valuation) because $NBIS would surpass that in just a year or two and started at similar market caps. But like $MSFT they made some great investments like Clickhouse, Toloka, Avride while sustaining their core business.
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博主认为NBIS是下一个微软，估值被严重低估。
$NBIS 是正在崛起的下一个微软。 - 凭借 55-75% 的毛利率，季度营收正从 1 亿美元向 1-2 年内的 20-30 亿美元+ 扩张 - 大量持有下一代公司（如为 Anthropic 提供动力的 Clickhouse）的股权 - Mag7 AI 计算的基础设施。 完全被低估。https://t.co/dOUiOyKkyd
英文原文
$NBIS is the next Microsoft in the making. - Scaling from $100M quarterly revenue to $2B-3B+ in 1-2 years off 55-75% gross margin - Large ownership of next generational companies like Clickhouse (powers Anthropic) - Infrastructure of Mag7 AI Compute. Completely undervalued. https://t.co/dOUiOyKkyd
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看好刚融资的锂电股DFLI及涉军航天股FLY。
我每天要研究大量公司。我查看了$DFLI，这是一家市值8300万美元的锂电池公司，刚刚以当前股价融资2875万美元（这是一个看涨信号）。 输入fly，找到了$FLY。查看后发现，他们与诺斯罗普·格鲁曼(Northrop Grumman)有合同，拥有军事合同，并且正在建造中型可重复使用火箭。 市值不错，我喜欢它。
英文原文
I go through tons of companies every day. I was looking at $DFLI, $83M marketcap Lithium Battery company that just raised $28.75M at the current share price (which is bullish). Typed in fly, found $FLY. Looked at it, and they have contracts with Northrop Grumman, military contracts, and were building medium-lift reusable rockets. Market cap was good, and I like it
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博主看好FLY，类比RKLB早期，计划长期持有。
@soulbiri1 我通常不太喜欢这种投机性公司哈哈，但我看好 $FLY。 它让我完全想起了 $RKLB 起步时的样子。我会长期持有这只股票。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I normally don’t like speculative companies this much lol but I like $FLY. Reminds me exactly of how $RKLB started. I’m holding this one for years
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看好$FLY火箭发射及政府背书，类比早期$RKLB。
好吧，今晚最后一贴，我保证： $FLY 日食(ECLIPSE)可重复使用中重型火箭发射，目标2026年。 市值45亿美元。拥有极宽的护城河(Moat)，由政府背书+对国家安全至关重要。 我不需要多说了。 爱你们， 早期 $RKLB 投资者兼 Rocketlab 超级多头。 https://t.co/yAQpQGz1B5
英文原文
Okay last post of the night I promise: $FLY ECLIPSE REUSABLE MEDIUM-LIFT ROCKET LAUNCHES AIMING 2026. $4.5B MARKET CAP. MEGA MOAT, backstopped by government + critical for national security. I DON'T NEED TO SAY MORE. Love, Early $RKLB investor and Rocketlab Megabull. https://t.co/yAQpQGz1B5
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持有EOSE但认为小市值电池能源股风险收益比更佳。
@baggers4beggers 我的个人投资组合里确实持有 $EOSE！ 但我感觉它已经上涨了 450%+，目前一些较小市值的电池/能源标的具有较好的风险收益比。 你可以调整股票配置，这只是一个我会构建的投资组合示例。
英文原文
@baggers4beggers I have $EOSE in my personal portfolio actually! I just feel like it's already ran up 450%+ and there's a good risk/reward on some smaller marketcap battery/energy plays right now. You can swap stocks around, this is just an example portfolio of something I'd make.
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认为$FLY低于IPO价是绝佳买点，拟加仓并类比$RKLB。
@ccjdjff $FLY 目前低于 IPO 价格是一个极其绝佳的入场点。我实际上可能会现在加仓，它真的让我想起了 $RKLB。https://t.co/EZL5CEHnj6
英文原文
@ccjdjff $FLY is an EXTREMELY GREAT entry point below IPO price right now. I'll probably put more into it now actually, it really reminds me of $RKLB. https://t.co/EZL5CEHnj6
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博主表示持有并看涨IREN，但批评其短期期权风险管理策略。
@midlevelcruiser 嘿，搞什么鬼，我持有 $IREN，我对 IREN 看涨。 我不喜欢的是为了风险管理使用两周到期的期权，哈哈。
英文原文
@midlevelcruiser yo wtf, I have $IREN, I'm bullish on IREN. The thing I didn't like was the 2 week expiry on options for risk management lmao
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博主解释因特定原因在ETF中增持美光科技。
@Deenobrown123 是的，这就是为什么我在 ETF 中加入了 $MU。
英文原文
@Deenobrown123 Yep, that's why I added $MU to the ETF.
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若OpenAI用AMD替代英伟达，AMD或重估至万亿美元市值。
@soulbiri1 这是一只仅按份额计算的ETF！ 此外，OpenAI 基本上是所有基础AI模型的领导者。 如果萨姆·阿尔特曼认为他可以使用价值数千亿美元的 $AMD GPU 来替代 $NVDA，那么 AMD 可能会重新估值成为一家万亿美元市值的公司。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 This is a share-only ETF! Also, OpenAI is basically the leader of all foundational AI models. And if Sam Altman thinks he can use hundreds of billions of dollars worth of $AMD GPUs instead of $NVDA, then AMD might re-rate into a trillion dollar company.
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WLAC为SPAC上市，份额将转换为Boost股票。
@Khagani_gahrh0 @dubiousnoob $WLAC 这基本上是在购买上市前份额，然后在上市日转换为 Boost 的股票。这是一个 SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）IPO。
英文原文
@Khagani_gahrh0 @dubiousnoob $WLAC which is basically buying pre-ipo, then on ipo day it converts to shares of Boost. This is an SPAC IPO.
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看好Boost IPO表现，预计市值翻倍，但市场缺乏耐心。
@dubiousnoob 我相当确信 Boost 的首次公开募股(IPO)会大获成功，市值可能达到 10 亿+美元，这相当于当前估值的 ~2 倍，尽管他们尚未公布具体数据，这只是基于其客户、利润率及收入增长进行的估算。 不过大多数人没有耐心等待 1-3 个月。
英文原文
@dubiousnoob I’m pretty sure Boost IPO will be a hit, and maybe 1B+ MC, which is around ~2x from here, even through they haven’t released figures, just estimating based on their clients + margin + revenue growth. Most people don’t have the patience to wait 1-3 months though