个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2378 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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分享UNH交易经历，计划因IV较低而买入TGT看涨期权。
@iamsattam 我对 $UNH 也做过同样的操作，买入价值 22.5 万美元以上，随后两天股价从 320 美元涨至 355 美元。 我希望它能回升至 100 美元，所以我可能会在下个月大量买入 3 月看涨期权。当时 $UNH 的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility)太高了，但 $TGT 的隐含波动率足够低。
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@iamsattam I did the same thing with $UNH buying $225k+ on it, then it went from $320 to $355 the next two days. I'd hope for recovery to $100, so I'd probably buy a lot more March calls next month. UNH IV was too high at the time, but TGT is low enough. https://t.co/v66nS92o4m
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市场因降息预期下调下跌，但标的被低估，建议继续定投。
@mattia030339 @soulbiri1 定投(DCA)。市场刚刚定价了三次降息的可能性进一步下降（65% -> 55%），并导致所有资产下跌。但从基本面来看，它被低估了，所以这无关紧要。
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@mattia030339 @soulbiri1 dca. Market just priced in 3 rate cut chance dropping more (65% -> 55%) and brought everything down. But fundamentally, it's undervalued so doesn't matter.
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建议定投$AMZN，暂持现有仓位观望。
@__visionxry__ $AMZN 现在是定投(DCA)的好标的。 非常想买看涨期权(calls)，但除非出现单日跌幅达-4%的情况，否则我就继续持有现有仓位一周。
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@__visionxry__ $AMZN is a great DCA buy right now. Super tempted to buy calls but just sitting in current positions for a week unless there's some -4% day.
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作者借ETH反弹减仓，强调独立思考优于追随市场叙事。
@StockSavvyShay 像我这样的人利用这次 $ETH 价格回到 4000 美元以上（以太坊）的机会，抛售了在 1600 美元时买入的筹码。 我可能错了，以太坊和 $BMNR 可能是糟糕的长线标的。人们通过独立思考赚到的钱，远比追随媒体或某些对冲基金经理试图炒作的叙事要多。
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@StockSavvyShay People like myself were using this time around $4k+ to dump the $ETH they bought at $1600. I could be wrong Ethereum and $BMNR is a terrible long, people make the most money thinking for themselves than following a narrative the media or some hedge fund guys try spinning up.
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建议卖出CC虚值期权，逢低买入CIFR，GOOGL待进一步调研。
@DeepValueBagger 那些价值15万美元的牛排晚餐一定很美味。 说笑归说笑，卖出CC（Circus Circus）深度虚值（+35%以上，3天到期）的期权是个好主意，尤其是如果你持有看涨期权的话。 乍一看，逢低分批买入（DCA）下跌16%的$CIFR是明智之举。不过我仍需对$GOOGL的交易做更多尽职调查（DD），以建立足够的信心。
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@DeepValueBagger Those $150k steak dinners must be tasty. Jokes aside, selling CC's way OTM (+35%+ 3d) is a good idea, especially if you calls. From first glance, it's smart to DCA $CIFR -16% dips. Though I still need to do more DD into the $GOOGL deal though to have enough conviction.
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博主分享其包含NBIS等39只标的的具体投资组合权重配置。
我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合如下： 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
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I've been getting a lot of stock weighting questions. A portfolio I'd build would be: 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
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UPWK 17 美元减仓，看好 22-25 美元区间及长期持有价值。
@h20kita 我最终在 $UPWK 约 17 美元时减仓，随后保留了少量头寸。考虑到 H1B 签证增加自由职业者招聘、超 1 亿美元回购，以及作为指数成分股受益于三次降息（可能明年还有五次），22-25 美元的价格是合理的。不过，持有 1 年以获取长期资本利得也是不错的选择。
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@h20kita I ended up trimming $UPWK around $17, then held a tiny bit. $22-25 is good given H1B increasing freelance hiring, $100m+ buyback and Russell going up from triple rate cuts (part of index) and possibly 5 going into next year. Good to hold 1y for long term capital gain though
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揭露$BKKT长期折价稀释股东权益，警示散户远离虚假宣传。
X 上像 @mikealfred 这样粉丝最多的股票账号，竟然隐藏关于不利事实的回复并拉黑账号，这真是有趣。这正是我创建此账号的原因——揭露虚假宣传并真诚地帮助大家。 以下是他们试图隐藏的内容：$BKKT 有着长期稀释股东权益的记录： 2024年2月：通过注册直接发行(Registered Direct Offering)发行约140万股及权证。 2025年7月：在股价约24美元时，通过7500万美元的公开发行(IPO/Secondary Offering)再次发行约675万股及预融资权证(Pre-funded Warrants)，但以约10美元（60%以上折扣）卖给机构，导致散户巨额亏损。 这并非新事，几乎每年都是同样的模式：通过营销炒作散户 -> 发行折价股票以筹集现金 -> 循环往复。 提醒一下，X 上充斥着虚假宣传。请谨慎选择信息来源。
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It's funny how the most followed stock accounts on X like @mikealfred hide replies about inconvenient facts and block accounts. That’s exactly why I created this account — to call out BS and genuinely help you all. This is what they tried hiding: $BKKT has a long track record of diluting shareholders: Feb 2024: Issued ~1.4M shares + warrants in a registered direct offering. Jul 2025: Issued another ~6.75M shares + pre-funded warrants in a $75M public offering, when the stock was trading around $24, but sold them to institutions at ~$10 (60%+ discount), triggering massive losses for retail. And this isn’t new, the pattern has been the same almost every year: hype retail with marketing -> issue discounted stock to raise cash -> repeat. Just a reminder X is full of snake oil. Be careful where you get your information from.
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批评博主炒作有稀释历史的低市值股BKKT
@mikealfred 令人遗憾的是，你正在炒作一只市值较低且有过向股东稀释股权历史的股票。这是一个炒作循环——股价上涨——以当前价格稀释70%——股东被坑。其他股票的分析逻辑不错，但BKKT是在向粉丝糟糕地吹票。
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@mikealfred It's sad how you're pumping a low mc stock that has a history of dumping dilution on shareholders. It's a cycle of hype -> stock rises -> dilution 70% under current prices -> shareholders get screwed. Decent thesis with other stocks but BKKT is a terrible shill to followers
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承认 $IREN 判断正确，但表示目前坚定看好 $NBIS。
@SCurveCapital 是的，你对 $IREN 的判断是对的，恭喜。当我们在 $12 美元持有 $UPWK 时，我买入了 1 股 $IREN，它的涨幅非常巨大。 不过我现在是坚定的 $NBIS 列车乘客（看好 $NBIS）。
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@SCurveCapital Yeah you were right about $IREN, congrats. I bought 1 share when we were holding $UPWK back at $12 and it was up an enormous amount. I'm on the $NBIS train though.
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警告股份稀释风险，建议波段交易而非长期持有。
@mikealfred 等着吧，他们又会再次稀释你们的股份。长期持有体验极差，适合做波段交易。
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@mikealfred Just wait until they dilute you all again. Absolutely terrible long term hold, good to swing trade.
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类比Coinbase与Robinhood，看好NBIS超越CRWV，IREN暂无巨头订单
@NeuralCadence $COIN 就像 $CRWV 的等价物，为该板块的公司设定了市值标杆。 $NBIS 就像 $HOOD，拥有更健康的资产负债表、更多元化的客户群等。 我认为 $NBIS 将在一两年内超越 $CRWV，就像 $HOOD 超越 $COIN 那样。 $IREN 目前还没有与“七大科技巨头(Mag7)”的合作协议。
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@NeuralCadence $COIN is like the equivalent of $CRWV, setting the mc for companies in the sector. $NBIS is like $HOOD, better balance sheet, more diversified customers, etc. I think NBIS will overtake CRWV in a year or two like how HOOD took over COIN. $IREN doesn't have mag7 deals yet
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建议$220买入AMZN正股，并预测科技巨头市值目标。
如果你做正股，$AMZN 在 $220 是个很好的买入点。 我会等到 $211-216 再入场短期看涨期权。今天的美联储会议没有影响三次降息的概率。 关于科技巨头，我的预测是： $TSM -> $1.8T $META -> $2.3T $AMZN -> $3T https://t.co/5KwV6XZWxK
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$AMZN is an great buy here at $220 if you're doing shares. I'd wait for $211-216 before entering shorter term calls. Fed meeting today didn't affect odds of 3x rate cut. In terms of tech giants my guess is: $TSM -> $1.8T $META -> $2.3T $AMZN -> $3T https://t.co/5KwV6XZWxK
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Polymarket维持三次降息预期，建议借机买入回调的AMZN。
@mattia030339 @AnaCintra24 这并没有改变 Polymarket（预测市场平台）的定价，仍然在计入 65% 的三次降息概率。我会利用这个机会买入像 $AMZN 这样下跌了 2.7% 的股票。
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@mattia030339 @AnaCintra24 It didn't change Polymarket, still pricing in 65% chance of triple rate cut. I'd use this to opportunity to buy stuff like $AMZN that dropped 2.7%
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看好NBIS一年期表现，RKLB适合五年长持，除非短期暴涨。
@__visionxry__ $NBIS 是我在1年周期内最高确信度的股票。 我更愿意在5年周期内持有 $RKLB。 除非它像 $CRWV 那样随机在短期内暴涨600%，否则持有一年以获取长期资本利得是明智的。
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@__visionxry__ $NBIS is highest conviction stock I have for a 1 year timeframe. I'd be more willing to hold $RKLB on a 5Y timeframe. Holding a year for long term capital gains is smart unless it randomly pulls a $CRWV and goes up 600% in a short amount of time
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看好$NBIS基本面，认为其被低估，目标价200美元。
$NBIS 是十年一遇的标的，能创造代际财富。前瞻营收与基本面极佳，260亿美元市值被严重错杀。低于130美元是极佳的买入机会。5个月内目标价200美元。https://t.co/VvQclYVdFO
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$NBIS is a once-a-decade stock that can make generational wealth. Incredible forward revenue and fundamentals, mispriced at 26B market cap. Screaming buy under $130. $200 PT, 5 months. https://t.co/VvQclYVdFO
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推测NBIS股价将涨至可转换票据转换价附近。
@babyfolio 我猜测直到可转换票据(Convertible Note)的转换价格触及约 $138.75 左右。$NBIS 今天就值那个估值（虽然通常股价需要一段时间才能涨上去）。
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@babyfolio I'm guessing until convertible note hits like $138.75-ish. $NBIS is worth that valuation today (thought it normally takes some time to run up).
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分析 $HPP 受降息影响有限且债务结构不利，虽低于 NAV 但持谨慎态度。
嗯，我进一步研究了一下。虽然“异特龙(Allosaurus)”模式很有前景，但对于 $HPP 来说，三次降息对租赁业务的影响远不如对 $Z 或 $$OPEN 等房屋销售业务那么大。降息通常能鼓励招聘，但我们又遇到了 H1-B 签证风波，这也没带来什么好处。 该公司债务众多，其中 85.4% 为固定利率债务，因此不像使用浮动利率的公司那样能从降息中获益。 不过，其股价低于净资产值(NAV)。通常股价低于 NAV 是有原因的，其他对冲基金可能已经将这些因素计入价格。我不够了解，无法判断哪一方是错误的。 我并不太看好，但也许“恐龙”看到了我没看到的东西。
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Hmm, looked into it more. While the Allosaurus pattern is promising, for $HPP, triple rate cut doesn't really affect leasing too much compared to home sales like $Z or $OPEN. It usually encourages hiring but we got the H1-B drama, which isn't helpful either. They have a lot of debt, 85.4% of the debt is fixed so it doesn't really benefit from rate cuts like companies that use floating interest do on top. It is below NAV though, usually there's another reason why it's below NAV that other hedge funds priced in. I don't know enough to say whether one party is wrong or not. I'm not too bullish, but maybe the dinosaur sees something I don't.
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苹果新品发布后先跌后涨，借回购扭转市场叙事。
在这个世界上，除了死亡、税收……和 $APPL 在新品发布后股价暴跌，人们恐慌性抛售，随后苹果通过股票回购(buybacks)来说服市场大家都喜欢该产品之外，没有任何事情是确定的。 （两周内从 $227 涨至 $256） https://t.co/Jy4SRAJFda
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In this world, nothing can be said for certain, except death, taxes... and $APPL stock crashing after product launch, people panic selling, then Apple using buybacks to convince market that everyone likes the product. ($227 -> $256 in 2 weeks) https://t.co/Jy4SRAJFda
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HIMS受降息预期及基本面驱动，空头平仓推升市值至2000亿。
顺风因素将是三次降息。我原以为睾酮产品发布+PPI会是主要催化剂，但SI从36升至42。尽管我发帖时股价为$48，随后涨至$57。$HIMS只需通过Zava收购持续增加营收，基本面将导致空头在每次回调时平仓。意外的150%SS可能是收购等事件，否则看起来像是随着空头逐步平仓，市值缓慢升至$200B+。
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Tailwind would be triple rate cut. I thought testosterone product launch + PPI would be the main trigger but SI increased from 36 -> 42. Stock still went up when I posted at $48 to $57 though. $HIMS just need to keep increasing revenue with Zava acquisition and fundamentals will cause shorts to cover on every dip. A surprise 150% SS would be an acquisition or something but otherwise looks like one of the gradual ones with short positions covering over time to $20B+ mc.
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看好GAP季节性机会，关注宏观关税对价值持仓的影响。
@AndyA143597 对于 $GAP，我确实看好它，我个人也喜欢 Banana Republic。此时正值季节性利好期，该股也会从中受益。 $UPWK、$TGT、$UNH、$LULU 是我价值投资组合中的持仓，但我需要进一步观察，看看宏观环境或关税是否会产生实质性影响。
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@AndyA143597 For $GAP, I do like it and I like Banana Republic personally. It's a stock that benefits from seasonality around this time too. $UPWK, $TGT, $UNH, $LULU were value investing port holders but I'll need to look more to see if there's any material impact from macro/tarrifs.
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祝贺早期买入NBIS，本人微软合作后建仓，看好其千亿美元市值潜力。
@mvcinvesting 恭喜你在早期就买入了 $NBIS，发现正确的投机性标的从来都不容易。我介入得稍晚一些，在 $MSFT 的交易公布后建立了仓位。我认为该公司有潜力成为一家市值 1000 亿美元的公司。
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@mvcinvesting Congrats on getting into $NBIS early, it’s never easy to spot the right speculative plays. I joined a bit later and built a position after the $MSFT deal. I see the potential for it to be a $100B company.
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对比HIMS逼空潜力与NBIS基本面涨幅，供投资者选择。
@GrassKaniKani $HIMS 的空头持仓率(short interest)为42%，随时可能引发150%的逼空(short squeeze)行情。 $NBIS 仅凭基本面就很可能再涨100%。 在逼空情景下，HIMS 的上涨潜力最大；而 NBIS 则可能仅凭惊人的增长就实现反弹。 请自行选择风险。
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@GrassKaniKani $HIMS has 42% short interest and can short squeeze 150% any moment. $NBIS is likely to rise another 100% just based on fundamentals. HIMS has highest upside potential under a short squeeze scenario, NBIS likely rallies just based on staggering growth. Pick your poison.
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推荐全仓NBIS，因其风险低、估值优且增长潜力大。
@soulbiri1 说实话，$NBIS 是少数几只我会放心建议朋友全仓买入的股票之一。相比 $IREN 投机性更低，估值优于 $CRWV，未来增长潜力高于 $ALAB。
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@soulbiri1 Honestly $NBIS this is one of the only stocks I'd be fine telling a friend to full port. Less speculative than $IREN, better valuation than $CRWV, future growth higher than $ALAB.
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博主重申 $NBIS 为高确信度标的，认为其基本面强劲且极具买入价值。
我很少重复发帖推荐某只股票……但 $NBIS 很特别。即便今天已上涨 5.75%，在市值低于 300 亿美元的情况下，每次回调都是极具吸引力的买入机会。这是一家十年一遇的公司，其基本面和未来营收远超当前市值。轻松的高确信度持仓目标价 $175+。
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I rarely repeat-post a stock… but $NBIS is special. Even up 5.75% today, at <$30B market cap, it’s a screaming buy on every dip. This is a once-in-a-decade company with fundamentals and forward revenue far outpacing marketcap. Easy high conviction hold to $175+ https://t.co/MzjEuxSAkD
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Polymarket显示ETF获批概率升至95%，视为买入机会。
@junyongisusing1 我刚看到一个不错的买入机会。Polymarket 实际上已将 ETF 获批概率提升至 95%。这是需要关注的主要事件。https://t.co/QB0FIMrUIq
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@junyongisusing1 I just see a good buying opportunity. Polymarket actually increased etf approval to 95%. This was the main event to be looking out for. https://t.co/QB0FIMrUIq
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ALAB大涨验证逻辑，NBIS获巨头支持，作者建仓100万押注其市值翻倍。
$ALAB 从我两个月前推荐时的 $96 涨至 $244，涨幅 154%（尽管现在略显高估）。 $NBIS 正在重演类似的逻辑，且获得了 $MSFT 和 $NVDA 的支持。 $NBIS 从 $240 亿市值增长至 $600 亿+ 的路径清晰，这也是我建立 $100 万头寸的原因。
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$ALAB went from $96 to $244, a 154% increase since I called it out 2 months ago (though a tad overvalued now) Similar thesis with $NBIS is happening now with backing from $MSFT + $NVDA. NBIS has a clear path to $60b+ marketcap from $24b and why I’m taking a $1M position.
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NBIS获微软大单及融资，基本面改善，市值低估。
并非因为股价反弹。而是因为自那以后，$NBIS 获得了 $MSFT 多年总计 170 亿美元的订单，上周以良好条款筹集了 41 亿美元以上的资本支出(capex)，加上三天前预期的降息利好。我们还看到微软计算资源紧张，OpenAI 转向 $GOOGL。其他超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)也签署了更多计算资源协议，且更有可能签约。这些近期发生的事件，使得在 $NBIS 50 美元时仅为投机，除非是 $RKLB，否则我对投机性公司不会有高确信度。现在纯粹是从这里开始规模化扩张，未来营收复合增长数百倍。250 亿美元市值与未来增长不匹配。
英文原文
It's not because of a price rally. It's because since then, $NBIS has 17B from $MSFT for multiple years, $4.1B+ now raised for capex last week on good terms, with additional rate cut tailwind projected from 3 days ago. We've also seen MSFT be compute strained and OpenAI go to $GOOGL. With other hyperscalers sign deals for more compute and more likely to sign on. This all happened recently, before $50 NBIS was speculation and I wouldn't have high conviction in a speculative company unless it was $RKLB. Now it's pure scaling from here with forward rev compounding hundreds of percent. 25B marketcap does not match forward growth.
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推测$ETOR因年底税务亏损收割被抛售，但基本面强劲且估值低。
@KevinLMak 可能是 $ETOR。我猜是因为它今年股价下跌，人们在年底(EOY)前进行税务亏损收割(tax harvest)。但它拥有约800多百万美元的净现金，市值36亿美元，同比增长22%（类似 $IBKR），且盈利，却深陷低谷。
英文原文
@KevinLMak Prob $ETOR. I'm guessing it's because it's down for the year and people tax harvest before EOY. But ~800+ net cash, 3.6B marketcap, growing 22% y/y like $IBKR, profitable, down in the dumps.
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分析RKLB、HOOD、TSM及比特币的长期成长逻辑与估值。
嗯，我持有的不多，除了 $RKLB、$IBIT，可能还有 $TSM，$HOOD 但在当前价位下可能性较小。 我在 $18 时就多仓持有 $HOOD，但鉴于其已上涨 1000%+，受金融科技(Fintech)领域限制，很难看到它在 5 年内成长为 1 万亿美元市值。但它一直是我高确信度的多头持仓，因为拥有庞大的用户群并增加了更多产品（如银行服务）。 $RKLB 目前被严重高估，但 SpaceX 是最好的对标，SpaceX 现估值 3500 亿，太空行业因国家安全问题+商业化将保持增长。RKLB 无论 5 年还是 10 年，很可能都会成长到那个体量。 比特币(Bitcoin)很可能继续增长至黄金市值水平。 $TSM 是纯粹的垄断者，像英特尔(Intel)建设晶圆代工厂这样的噪音不太可能在未来 10 年内打破这一格局。
英文原文
Hmm, I don't have many but aside from $RKLB, $IBIT, prob $TSM, $HOOD but less so at these levels. I was long HOOD back at $18 but given its 1000%+ rise already, hard to see it growing into $1T in 5 years due to limits in fintech. But it was always a high conviction long due to consumer base + adding more products eg. Banking. $RKLB is insanely overvalued right now but Spacex is the best comparison, 350b valuation now and space industry will keep growing cause national security issue + commercialization. RKLB will likely grow into that whether it's 5 years from now or 10 Bitcoin will likely keep growing into gold marketcap. $TSM is a pure monopoly, no noise like Intel building foundries will likely disrupt that for another 10 years.