个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2378 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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分析CRWV、NBIS及RKLB的股价潜力与时间框架
$CRWV 在3个月内从$41涨至$183，但部分原因是流通盘(less float)较小。 如果$NBIS 第四季度财报(Q4 earnings)大超预期，加上最乐观情境下的三次降息，我们可能看到它从$99涨至$225，否则我认为需要1年时间。 $RKLB 是我在5年维度上最看好的，但他们还需要额外两年时间用于中子火箭(Neutron)项目。
英文原文
$CRWV went from $41 to $183 in the span of 3 months but part of that was less float. We could see $NBIS similarly from $99 to $225 by March if they have a Q4 earnings blowout along with triple rate cut in the best scenario, but otherwise I'd say 1 year timeframe. $RKLB I like the most on a 5 year timeframe, but they do need an extra two years for Neutron.
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NBIS是英伟达应对超大规模厂商自研芯片威胁的关键，短期增长潜力最大。
我同意，超大规模云计算厂商（Hyperscaler）自研芯片是对 $NVDA 4万亿美元帝国及GPU供应商的最大威胁。但 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 是英伟达保护其护城河（Moat）并防止GPU利润率压缩的解决方案。 因此，他们有意支持像 NBIS 这样的公司，以分散来自超大规模云计算厂商的需求，并通过将依赖关系分散/限制计算资源给这些较小的 GPU 即服务（GPU as a Service）公司，来防止来自 Azure、AWS 的利润率压缩。 我们已经看到 $MSFT 在 OpenAI 的计算资源耗尽，因此他们不得不转向 GOOGL、CRWV、NBIS 等公司并建立多年期合同，即使他们也在构建定制 ASIC。 $NBIS 也不依赖于单一合同，因为其他超大规模云计算厂商正在接入，但那项170亿美元的大合同确实给了它更多的保障。我们也尚未看到其被完全定价，因为在此之前估值约为160亿美元+，而在稀释后现在为240亿美元。 我提到1年的时间框架是因为其上行空间最大，三次降息也有助于此。即使只有两次降息，论点依然成立，因为 NVDA 支持 NBIS + 超大规模云计算厂商的资本支出（Capex）流向这些 GPU 供应商。 3-4年后，我可能会更担心，这就是为什么我一直维持长期持有 $RKLB、$IBIT 等作为5年期的头寸，但 NBIS 在未来一年具有最大的增长潜力。
英文原文
I agree, hyperscaler chips is the biggest threat to $NVDA's 4T+ empire + GPU providers. But, $NBIS and $CRWV are NVIDIA's solution to protecting it's moat and GPU margin compression. So they're supporting companies like NBIS on purpose to diversify demand from hyperscalers and prevent margin compression from Azure, AWS by spreading out dependencies/limit compute to these smaller GPU as a service companies. We already saw $MSFT run out of compute for OpenAI so they had to go to GOOGL, CRWV, NBIS and others and build out multi-year contracts, even while building out custom ASICs. $NBIS also doesn't hinge on one contract since other hyperscalers are on its way but that 17B big contract does give it a lot more assurance. We also haven't seen it fully priced in yet since valuation was ~16B+ before then and now it's $24B after dilution. I mentioned 1 year timeframe in terms of heaviest upside with triple rate cut helping too. Double rate cut, thesis still stands with NVDA supporting NBIS + capex spend from hyperscalers flowing down to these GPU providers. 3-4 years out, I might be a bit more worried, which is why I always maintained I'm long $RKLB, $IBIT and others on a 5 year timeframe but NBIS has the biggest growth potential over the next year.
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作者基于英伟达支持、微软大单及宏观降息，将NBIS仓位扩至百万美元，目标价225美元。
关于我将 $NBIS 仓位扩大至 100 万美元以上且目标价定为 225 美元的原因思考： 核心逻辑 ______ 当微软 (MSFT)、谷歌 (GOOGL) 和 Mag7 巨头成为你的客户时（就像 ALAB 或 CRED，我在它们股价低于 100 美元时重仓，或者在 $NVDA、AVGO 或 TSM 起飞之前），公司的未来增长可能会以百分之几百的速度爆发。 历史上几乎没有哪家公司像这样被 Mag7 巨头所依赖。 此外，当英伟达 (NVDA) 也有充分动机推高你的股价时…… NBIS 成为更强的买入标的，是我未来 1 年时间内信心最高的选择。 护城河 + 对英伟达至关重要的 GPU 租赁商 _______ 英伟达看到其他超大规模云厂商如 AMZN、GOOGL 正在构建自己的芯片并减少依赖。 对策？构建 GPU 租赁商（如 CRWV），通过持股和融资，使 Azure/Cloud/AWS 无法取代英伟达。 GPU 的获取越来越多地通过这些租赁商进行，正如我们在 OpenAI 身上看到的，他们不再拥有来自微软的算力，不得不转向谷歌。 谷歌的算力也不够，因此转向 WULF 等公司。微软转向 CRWV、NBIS 等公司，大型科技公司的算力需求向下游这些 GPU 提供商流动。 英伟达有充分理由推高 CoreWeave 和 NBIS 等 GPU 租赁商的估值，以对冲超大规模云厂商自研芯片的风险。 如果没有算力，数十亿美元将流向 NBIS，而英伟达在背后支撑他们。 宏观顺风 _______ Polymarket 已定价 3 次降息。 如果你看过我的另一篇帖子，十年才有一次的三次降息（对流入市场的流动性极其有利）+ 年底季节性因素，这对股票是积极的。 此外，NBIS 市值相对较小，且依赖融资/债务增长。当利息负担下降时，融资成本降低，扩张看起来更可行。 NBIS 的估值 heavily 基于未来收益，随着降息预期，来自微软和其他客户的数十亿美元收入预期将被上调。在昨天的美联储会议后，我们即将看到剧烈的重估。 公司对比 ________ 如果让我选择 NBIS -> CRWV -> WULF -> 其他，权衡潜力与投机性。 CRWV - 英伟达明确支持，市值已达 630 亿美元+。可能涨得更高，但考虑到 NBIS 拥有微软合同、类似的积压订单等，而市值仅为前者的一半多，这就是我选择 NBIS 的原因。 $IREN, BITF, RIOT, $GRRR 等 - 比特币矿工转型算力。我喜欢它们，但它们还没有像微软那样提供去风险化保障。 WULV - 我喜欢它们因为谷歌支持，但 NBIS 的可转债条款和相对于潜力的市值更好。 基本面 ______ 市值：247.8 亿美元（对比 CRWV 的 610 亿美元，后者今年仍下跌 30%），现在拥有类似的收入积压订单，轻松达到相同市值（每股 243 美元+）的潜力很大。 到 2026 年，计入微软交易后，NBIS 总收入可能达到 50-60 亿美元，毛利率强劲（≈70%）。 在 2027-2028 年，如果基础业务（非微软部分）也激进增长，总收入可能达到 80-100 亿美元+。所有这些都伴随着 ~60-75% 的毛利率。 这很疯狂，但主要是因为英伟达支持这些 GPU 公司。基于估值，NBIS 比 CRWV 更具吸引力，且比没有微软背书给予 170 亿美元的 IREN 等其他公司投机性更低。 杂项思考 ___ 他们已经筹集了 41 亿美元+，并为 170 亿美元的微软合同确保了资本支出。这是最大的去风险化事件，也是为什么我在 90 美元+ 投资 NBIS，而不是在 50 美元时投资更投机的标的。 可能还有其他来自超大规模云厂商的合同即将到来。我认为轻松路径是到 140 美元，然后可能因可转债转股下跌，再涨到 200 美元。 可能还有我没提到的细节，如几年后的利润率压缩、运营收入折旧风险等。 但这正是我投资决策的核心（宏观、基本面、行业增长、护城河+激励措施），与波段交易相比，这也是为什么 NBIS 是未来一年高信心标的的原因。
英文原文
Thoughts on why I’m scaling my $NBIS position to $1M+ with a $225 PT: Thesis ______ When MSFT, GOOGL, and Mag7 are your customers like ALAB or CRED (when I took large positions in both sub $100) or before $NVDA or AVGO or TSM took off, a company's forward growth would likely explode in the 100%'s of percent. There are barely any companies in history where Mag7 are dependent on them. On top of that, when NVDA has every incentive to pump your stock as well.... NBIS becomes a stronger buy and has my highest conviction for 1Y timeframe. Moat + GPU lenders Critical Importance to NVDA _______ NVDA sees other hyperscalers like AMZN, GOOGL building out their own chips and reducing reliance. Answer? Build out GPU lenders eg. CRWV, by taking a stake and financing them, so Azure/Cloud/AWS can't replace NVDA. Access to GPUs becomes increasingly through these lenders and as we see with OpenAI, they no longer have the compute from MSFT and have to go to GOOGL. GOOGL also doesn't have enough compute so they go to WULF and others. MSFT goes to CRWV, NBIS and others, and big tech compute flows downstream to these GPU providers. NVIDIA has every reason to inflate GPU lenders like CoreWeave and NBIS to hedge against hyperscaler custom chips. And without compute, billions of dollars will flow to NBIS with NVDA propping them up. Macro Tailwind _______ 3x rate cut priced into Polymarket. If you saw my other post, triple rate cuts only happen once a decade (extremely positive for liquidity flowing into markets) + combined with end of year seasonality, which are positive for equities. On top of that, NBIS is a relatively smaller market cap, and relies on financing/debt to grow. When their interest burden drops, financing gets cheaper, and expansion looks more viable. NBIS is heavily valued on future earnings, and with rate cut projections, far our earnings of billions in rev from MSFT and other clients get marked UP. We're about to see a sharp re-rating after Fed meeting yesterday. Company Comparisons ________ If I had to choose NBIS -> CRWV -> WULF ->others weighing on potential to speculation tradeoffs. CRWV - NVDA clearly backing them, already large $63B+ MC. Could go way higher but growth potential with MSFT contract with NBIS, similar backlog, etc. at more than half the marketcap is why I chose them. $IREN, BITF, RIOT, $GRRR etc. - BTC miners pivoting to compute. I like them but they don't have the same de-risking as MSFT yet. WULF - I do like them since Google is backing them but NBIS conversion terms and MC relative to potential are better. Fundamentals ______ MC: 24.78B (When you compare to CRWV at 61B, which was still down 30% this year), now with similar revenue backlog, it has an easy potential to go to the same marketcap ($243+ a share). By 2026, with Microsoft deal accounted for, NBIS could be doing $5-6B total revenue with strong gross margins (≈70%). In 2027-2028, total revenue could reach $8-10B+, especially if base business (non-Microsoft) also grows aggressively. All with ~60-75% gross margins. This is insane but mainly due to NVDA supporting these GPU companies. Based on valuation, NBIS is more attractive than CRWV and less speculative than IREN or others without MSFT backing giving them 17B. Misc Thoughts ___ They already raised 4.1B+ and secured capex for the $17B MSFT contract. This was the biggest de-risking event and why I'd invest in NBIS at $90+ compared to something more speculative back at $50. There's likely other contracts from hyperscalers coming their way. I'd say easy path to $140, then maybe drop from convertible note, then up to $200. There's probably more specifics that I didn't get to like margin compression in a few years operating income depreciation risk etc. But this was the core of my investment thesis (macro, fundamentals, industry growth, moat + incentives) when I make investment decisions vs. swing trading and why NBIS is high conviction over the next year.
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计划趁回调将仓位扩至百万美元，避免追高。
@babyfolio 谢谢，我打算在下一次回调时把仓位扩大到 $1M。只是不想在单日涨幅 5% 的时候买入这么多。
英文原文
@babyfolio Thanks scaling this to $1M on the next dip. Just didn't want to buy that much on a 5% increase day
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买入50万美元$NBIS，视为一年期最高信心持仓，目标价225美元。
买入价值50万美元的$NBIS。这是我目前持仓中，针对1年投资周期信心最高（Highest Conviction）的股票。目标价（PT）$225 https://t.co/buW9CV4WWH
英文原文
Bought $500K worth of $NBIS. My highest conviction stock out of anything for a 1 year time period. $225 PT https://t.co/buW9CV4WWH
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指出42%空头头寸可能引发剧烈空头挤压。
@mattia030339 @DavidJang0620 别逗了，空头头寸(short interest)高达42%。可能会引发一场极其滑稽的200%+空头挤压(short squeeze)。
英文原文
@mattia030339 @DavidJang0620 No lol there's 42% short interest. Could be a hilarious 200%+ short squeeze
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建议全仓NBIS博高回报，或全仓TSM求稳健。
@DavidJang0620 $NBIS 是我在当前市场利率下，为了获得最高投资回报率(ROI)而会全仓持有的唯一公司。 如果你风险偏好较低，$TSM 可能是最安全的全仓选择。
英文原文
@DavidJang0620 $NBIS is the only company I'd full port for highest ROI at current market rates $TSM is probably the safest full port if you're lower risk
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持有IBIT和LTC多头，看好LTC受降息及ETF催化重上250美元。
是的，我持有多头 $IBIT 和 $LTC。$BKKT 是我唯一考虑重新进入的加密小盘股。但由于稀释风险，我从不长期持有。莱特币(Litecoin) 受益于降息顺风、LTC 储备以及下个月 LTC ETF 的催化剂。它只需要一个像 $BMNR 那样的叙事，就能再次突破 $250+。
英文原文
Yeah I'm long $IBIT and $LTC. $BKKT only crypto small cap I'd consider re-entering. Never long though because of dilution. Litecoin gets rate cut tailwind, LTC reserves, and LTC ETF next month as catalysts. Just needs a narrative like $BMNR to go $250+ again.
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美联储降息预期叠加季节性，看好小盘成长股及SPY未来一年涨幅。
@sigmazerocap 风险管理本身没有坏处，但我们刚刚从上次美联储会议得到了三次降息的预期。这是小盘股/成长股结合（11-12月）季节性行情的一次千载难逢的机会。SPY 平均一年后涨幅 +10% 至 +15%。
英文原文
@sigmazerocap Nothing bad about risk management, but we just got a triple rate cut projection from the last fed meeting. This is once-in-awhile opportunity for small caps/growth stocks combined with (Nov-Dec) seasonality. SPY average +10% to +15%, 1 year later.
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PLMR虽稳健，但降息致利息收入受损，难享高负债小盘股红利。
@MMerrino569447 我通常不投资小盘股，但我们得到了三次降息预期。所以这纯粹是一笔宏观交易.. $PLMR 看起来像 $UPWK 一样稳健。但三次降息会损害它们的利息收入，因此它无法像其他高负债小盘股那样受益。
英文原文
@MMerrino569447 I don't normally invest in small caps but we got the triple rate cut projection. So this is purely a macro trade.. $PLMR looks solid like $UPWK. But triple rate cut hurts them because of lower investment income, so it doesn't get the benefit like other heavy-debt small caps.
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HAIN债务沉重，降息作用有限，扭转局面存疑。
@Rrrdv4 呃，债务很多。降息能帮上一点忙，但作用有限。$HAIN 市值仅 1.34 亿美元是有原因的，但谁知道他们能否扭转局面。
英文原文
@Rrrdv4 Uh, there's a lot of debt. Rate cuts help a bit, but by only so much. $HAIN is a 134m market cap for a reason, but who knows if they can turn it around.
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建议未来几个月从NBIS切换至RKLB
@YodaStockInvest 未来几个月 $NBIS -> $RKLB
英文原文
@YodaStockInvest $NBIS for next few months -> $RKLB
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该公司因远期收入结构变化，现被市场视为AI GPU即服务公司。
@__visionxry__ 在某种程度上是的，但由于其大部分远期收入来自该业务，他们现在被作为人工智能GPU即服务(AI GPU as a Service)公司进行交易。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ In some way, but they're traded as an AI GPU as a Service company now since that's where majority of the forward revenue comes from.
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GRRR估值隐含90%涨幅，但需警惕涉华风险导致的东南亚合作伙伴异常。
卖方给出38美元以上的目标价(PT)，较当前20美元隐含90%以上的上行空间。 如果我们按字面价值看待14亿美元以上的交易，$GRRR 凭借当前交易即可证明从20美元涨至65美元以上的合理性（尚未计入更多交易）。 但来自东南亚(SEA)的红旗警示是，如果14亿美元的潜在敞口涉及中国，这就是为何会出现随机的东南亚合作伙伴。https://t.co/ze6784wRTl
英文原文
Sellside gives $38+ PT from the current $20, implying 90%+ upside. If we take the 1.4B+ deal at face value, $GRRR with the current deal justify $65+ from $20 (not including more deals). But red flag from SEA if 1.4B underlying exposure is China, hence why random SEA partner. https://t.co/ze6784wRTl
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建议卖出周度备兑看涨期权，因近期无股息催化剂。
@soulbiri1 另外，除非股价进一步反弹，否则我会卖出行权价为 $95-$100 的周度备兑看涨期权(covered calls)，因为下个月之前没有股息催化剂。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Also I'd sell weekly covered calls on them at $95-$100 strike unless it rallies more since there's no dividend catalyst for another month
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博主在 $TGT 5年低点买入看涨期权，预期机构将因高股息而囤积。
正在对 $TGT 看涨期权进行成本平均操作，头寸规模约 10 万美元。我也持有 100 美元行权价的期权，但风险更高。该股股息率很高，且股价处于 5 年低点，因此我确信机构会大量囤积。 https://t.co/wYCW2wMfRJ
英文原文
Cost averaging $TGT calls to ~$100k in positions. Have $100 strikes as well, but it's more risky. It's a high paying dividend with the stock at 5y lows, so I'm sure institutions would stock up. https://t.co/wYCW2wMfRJ
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买入NFE并看好AI对能源股的催化作用
@SaiPhan94570565 谢谢，刚刚刚买了 2 万美元的 $NFE。主要问题是债务，但预计的三次降息将有助于降低其浮动利息。AI 消耗也是能源公司（如 $VST 或 $CEG）的一个很好的催化剂，值得一赌。https://t.co/skI1qMblls
英文原文
@SaiPhan94570565 Thanks bought $20k just now of $NFE. Main issue was debt but projected 3 rate cuts will help reduce their floating interest. AI consumption is a great catalyst for energy companies too for like $VST or $CEG, worth a gamble. https://t.co/skI1qMblls
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看好稀土及AI矿企，对比REMX、MP、UURAF等标的。
鉴于中国的地缘政治风险，我确实看好稀土。特朗普也部署了50亿美元以加速采矿。我在考虑$REMX或$MP的看涨期权，但$UURAF看起来也很有前景，我会进一步研究。我看到的最大缺点是它以加元(CAD)计价。我不太喜欢$NAKA或折价交易(under NAV)的控股公司。Grayscale曾长期折价交易。是的，我之前就知道$BITF。我只是更喜欢$NBIS，但那里有很多其他正在转向AI的矿企。谢谢推荐。
英文原文
I do like Rare Earth given geopolitical risk with China. Trump is also deploying $5B to accelerating mining. I was thinking $REMX or $MP calls, but $UURAF looks promising too, I'll look into it more. Main downside I see is that it's CAD. Not much of a fan of $NAKA or holding companies under NAV. Grayscale was under NAV for the longest time. Yeah I knew about $BITF before. I just liked $NBIS more but there's tons of other miners pivoting to AI out there. THanks for the recs
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调侃持仓数量，建议长期持有RKLB对标SpaceX。
@vicecarloans $UPWK, $HOOD, $IREN，要是算上这些，我就有16、17、18只持仓了，哈哈。至于 $RKLB，就拿着它5-8年吧，总有一天市值会像 SpaceX 一样达到3500亿美元。
英文原文
@vicecarloans $UPWK, $HOOD, $IREN, and would be 16 17 18 lol. For $RKLB just hold it for 5-8 years, should be $350B market cap like SpaceX one day.
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博主寻求高确信度小盘股推荐，拟投入10万美元以上进行深度研究。
正在挖掘具有10倍以上上涨潜力且势头正劲的小盘股。如果大家对以下股票有基于理由的高确信度，我将投入10万美元以上： $APLD（市值50亿）、$CIFR（48亿，继$IREN上涨后） _ $ONDS（19.9亿）、$NVTS（13亿）、$MVST（10亿）或其他推荐 真心求问，非投资建议——只是在寻找深度研究(DD)线索
英文原文
Exploring small caps with 10x+ upside and gaining traction. Will throw $100k+ at some if people have high conviction with a reason: $APLD (5B), $CIFR (4.8B) after $IREN run _ $ONDS (1.99B), $NVTS (1.3B), $MVST (1B), or other recs Genuinely asking, not advice — just DD-hunting
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批评忽视流通盘解锁的技术分析，指出CRCL估值过高适合做空。
我们同意市场是非理性的——但你的阅读理解能力跟你的技术分析(TA)一样糟糕。你漏掉的要点是：当技术分析(TA)忽略流通盘(float)和基本面时，它毫无用处。如果像 $BULL 那样，1%的流通盘驱动市值而99%后续解锁，图表分析就不重要了。我提到的唯一估值点是：如果 $CRCL 交易价格超过 $COIN 的一半，它就是一个很好的做空标的，因为利息收入是五五分成。我对 USDC 看涨，但 Circle 今天 $200 的估值应该高于 Coinbase 的一半。总之，在忽略100多亿美元解锁和收入分成的情况下画技术分析图表，并用“市场非理性”来辩解，正是亏掉粉丝金钱的方式。
英文原文
We agree about irrational markets - but your reading comprehension is about as good as your TA. The point you missed: TA is useless when it ignores float + fundamentals. If 1% of float drives MC and 99% unlocks later like $BULL, charts don’t matter. The only valuation point I made was that $CRCL is a great short if it ever trades above 1/2 of $COIN, since interest income is split 50-50. I’m bullish on USDC but Circle at $200 today would be worth more than half of Coinbase. Anyway, drawing a TA while ignoring 10B+ in unlocks & revenue sharing and justifying it by saying "markets aren’t rational” is exactly how to lose your followers money.
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CRCL受流通盘限制估值虚高，解禁后回归基本面，建议做空CRCL做多COIN。
吐槽：这张 $CRCL 图表很好地说明了为什么技术分析(TA)意义不大——基本面更重要。 当人们在 IPO 时发布 $BULL 的技术分析时，我正在做权证套利并翻白眼。BULL 从 10 美元涨到 70 多美元，但人们只在 1% 的流通盘中交易。当股份解禁时，BULL 跌回了 10 美元的 IPO 价。 对于 CRCL，我们看到从 31 美元 IPO 价涨到 200 多美元，因为人们在有限流通盘中交易，且市值几乎与 $COIN 相当（后者拥有加密货币交易所，并与 Circle 有 50% 的利息收入分成）。当 140 多万股 Circle 股份提前解禁时，价格暴跌回 130 美元。如果你看到 $CRCL 回到 200 美元，这是一个轻松的空 Circle 多 Coinbase 策略。 完整的 180 天禁售期在 12 月 2 日结束，两个月后你还有超过 100 亿美元的潜在抛压。我对 USDC 和 Circle/Coin 持看涨态度，但鉴于现有的商业模式，考虑到像 Tether 这样的稳定币业务通过利息收入赚钱，$CRCL 在今天 200 美元时价值超过 $COIN 的一半是没有道理的。 在即将到来的股份解禁面前，技术分析毫无意义。 教训：流通盘和基本面 > 图表上的线条。
英文原文
Rant: this $CRCL chart is a great lesson on why TA means very little - fundamentals matter more. When people were posting $BULL TA's at IPO, I was doing arbitrage between warrants and rolling my eyes. BULL went from $10 to $70+ but people were trading on 1% of float. When shares were unlocked, BULL went back to $10 IPO price. For CRCL, we saw the rally from $31 IPO price to $200+ because people are trading on a limited float and MC was almost the same as $COIN. (which has 50% interest revenue sharing with Circle on top of their crypto exchange) When 1.4m+ Circle shares had early unlock, the price crashed back down to $130. If you ever see $CRCL at $200, it's an easy short Circle long Coinbaes play. The full 180 day lock up is December 2nd and you have another $10B+ USD of potential selling pressure in two months. I am bullish on USDC and Circle/Coin but with the existing business model it doesn't make sense that $CRCL should ever be worth more than 1/2 of $COIN today at $200 given how Stablecoin businesses like Tether make money off interest income. TA doesn't mean anything with upcoming share lockups. Lesson: Float & fundamentals > lines on a chart.
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预测NBIS短期爆发后，长期走势或类似SMCI面临利润率与库存压力。
对于像 $NBIS 这样的股票，我会假设在一两年内，由于营收增长+前瞻潜力，会有一个巨大的催化剂推动其股价达到200美元以上。 然后它可能会像2-3年后的 $SMCI 一样，当局势稳定下来时，呈现高营收、低利润率，但随着大型科技公司部署由 $TSM 和 $AVGO 提供的自研芯片，面临库存风险和利润增长放缓。
英文原文
Stuff like $NBIS I'd just assume there's going to be a giant catalyst to $200+ in a year or two from revenue growth + forward potential. Then it might end up like $SMCI in 2-3 years when things settle down with high revenue, lower margins, but inventory risk and profit growth once all the big tech deploys their own chips with $TSM + $AVGO.
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按确信度排序：5年首选RKLB，短期回报潜力亦最高。
@junyongisusing1 如果我有5年的时间框架，按最高确信度排序会是 $RKLB，然后是 $BTC，最后是 $TSM。 这份列表只是我对未来几个月回报潜力从高到低的最佳猜测。
英文原文
@junyongisusing1 If I had a 5 year timeframe it would be $RKLB then $BTC then $TSM in terms of highest conviction. This list is just my best guess on return potential from highest to lowest in the next few months.
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分享9月精选15只高潜力股票及理想入场点。
我9月份精选的15只由催化剂驱动的股票，按截至2025财年的潜力排序，附解释及理想入场点： 1. $NBIS - 微软(MSFT)合同超170亿美元，稀释基本完成 < $100（现价）。相比 $IREN、$WULF 或 $BTBT 我更看好这只。 2. $HIMS - 42%的做空比例。来自欧盟的新增客户超120万。若有意外消息可能涨至$100 < $45 3. $LTC - ETF即将推出 + LTC储备 < $120（现价） 4. $RKLB - 中子号火箭将于2026年初发射 < $42 5. $TSM (看涨期权) - 市值持续增长至1.8万亿+，资本支出惊人。< $265（现价） 6. $ETOR - 随着 $HOOD、$IBKR 等金融科技股起飞，该股被低估。在当前价位下，我首选它而非 $DLO 或 $DAVE < $48（现价） 7. $LULU - 受假日消费提振，短期反弹至年底，超卖状态 < $165（现价） 7. $MRVL - 健康的45-55%同比增长，财报后遭不公平惩罚 < $70（现价） 8. $SG - 值得投资以博取反弹。去年股价$45。 < $9（现价） 9. $TSSI - 服务器机架（如 $SMCI、$DELL）正在追赶AI热潮的其余部分。 < $13.5 10. $ASTS - 像 $OPEN 一样的“邪教”级股票 < $38.5 11. $CRDO - 追赶 $ALAB 至380亿美元市值 < $125 12. $RUM - Charlie Kirk及保守派人士有望推动平台参与度至年底。 < $7.25 13. $AMZN (看涨期权) - AWS... 跟随 $ORCL 及其他数据中心财报表现 < $215 14. $SMCI - 2026年远期营收330亿美元。市值240亿美元哈哈。只要一份好财报就能起飞。$45（现价） 15. $IBIT (1年期LEAPS) - 鉴于美元超发，纯比特币敞口。不要 $MSTR 或 $BMNR，只要纯资产ETF < $112.5k 我还有什么遗漏的吗？
英文原文
My top 15 catalyst driven stocks from September sorted by potential to FY 2025, explanation, and ideal entry points: 1. $NBIS - 17B+ MSFT contract, dilution mostly finished < $100 (now). I like this over $IREN, $WULF, or $BTBT 2. $HIMS - 42% Short interest. 1.2M+ customers coming in from EU. Could up to $100 on surprise news < $45 3. $LTC - ETF launch soon + LTC reserves < $120 (now) 4. $RKLB - Neutron Launch early 2026 < $42 5. $TSM (calls)- Keep growing to 1.8T+ MC, capex spend insane.< $265 (now) 6. $ETOR - Undervalued with fintechl ike $HOOD $IBKR taking off. I'd prefer this over $DLO or $DAVE at current prices < $48 (now) 7. $LULU - Short term bounce to year end from holiday consumer spending, oversold < $165 (now) 7. $MRVL - Healthy 45-55% Y/Y, unfairly punished after earnings < $70 (now) 8. $SG - Worth the investment for bounceback. $45 last year. < $9 (now) 9. $TSSI - Server racks like $SMCI, $DELL catching up to rest of AI boom. < $13.5 10. $ASTS - Cult like stock like $OPEN < $38.5 11. $CRDO - Catchup to $ALAB at $38B MC < $125 12. $RUM - Charlie Kirk + conservatives likely to drive engagement to platform EOY. < $7.25 13. $AMZN (calls)- AWS... Follow $ORCL and other datacenter earnings < $215 14. $SMCI - 33B forward revenue 2026. 24B market cap lol. One good earnings and it pops off. $45 (now) 15. $IBIT (1Y leaps) - Pure BTC given USD printing. No $MSTR or $BMNR, just pure asset ETF < $112.5k Anything else I'm missing?
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短期反弹预期20%，但长期竞争加剧难维持。
@truthdotphd 从10月到1月的短期反弹，没问题。+20%的回报。长期来看，来自Vuori、Alo等品牌的竞争过于激烈，恕我直言，股价难以维持多年。
英文原文
@truthdotphd Short term bounce from October to Jan, sure. +20% return. Long term, too much competition from Vuori, Alo, etc. wouldn't hold for many years imo.
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作者因看好TSM需求且担忧Lyft竞争，倾向重仓TSM而非Lyft。
我不喜欢追高，除非能明确看到未来几年会有疯狂的需求增长，比如 $TSM。 $Lyft 主要面向美国市场，我认为 Waymo 会随着时间的推移扰乱其市场份额。 即使股价在 $20 美元，它依然不错，但我更喜欢其他公司。如果我再有 100 万美元，我会直接投入 TSM 而不是 Lyft，因为我会加倍下注于我更有信心的股票。
英文原文
I don't like chasing unless it's clear it will go up with insane demand over the next few years like $TSM. $Lyft is mainly US market and I see Waymo disrupting market share over time. Even at $20 it's still a good but I like other companies better. If i had another $1M I'd just put that into TSM instead of Lyft since I double down on higher conviction stocks.
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做空叙事失效，广告监管新闻对$HIMS无实质影响。
@himshouse 做空者的叙事逻辑站不住脚，因为超过42%的$SI（Silicon Motion Technology）和45亿美元以上的美元面临无限亏损的风险，随着HIMS增长并完成其在欧盟收购120万+更多客户的交易。关于措辞严厉的信件涉及广告的新闻对$HIMS没有实质性影响。
英文原文
@himshouse Short seller narratives since 42%+ SI and $4.5B+ USD is at risk of infinite loss as HIMS grows and completes it's EU acquisition of 1.2m+ more customers. The news about strongly worded letters about advertisements has no material affect on $HIMS.
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批评RKLB大规模减持，类比GME/AMC泡沫。
@beavinvests 抱歉，自 $GME 或 $AMC 持有者为公司向市场抛售股票而欢呼以来，我还没见过如此多的妄想。$RKLB 在公开市场上抛售 7.5 亿美元，对抗任何买盘压力，这并不是一件值得兴奋的事。
英文原文
@beavinvests Sorry but I haven't seen this much delusion since $GME or $AMC holders cheered that the company is dumping stock on them. Having $RKLB sell $750m on open market against any buying pressure is not something to be excited about.
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作者类比UPWK，认为ETOR低市值高增长被市场错杀。
回顾我的历史，我通常在底部买入，比如 $GOOGL，或在短期底部买入，比如当所有人都认为公司会失败时的 $UPWK。 $ETOR 类似于 $UPWK，拥有大量现金头寸且盈利。但它正以 $IBKR 20%+ 的年增长率增长，而市值却极低。 有时很难逆着市场情绪交易，但我认为市场对此定价错误。
英文原文
If you look at my history, I usually buy stuff at the very bottom like $GOOGL or short term bottom like with $UPWK when everyone thinks the company will fail. $ETOR is similar to $UPWK with large cash positions + profitable. But it's growing at $IBKR rates 20%+ y/y but extremely low market cap. Hard to trade against sentiment sometimes, but I do think market is pricing this wrong.