个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2378 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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TSLA基本面差，但或因马斯克拉升股价预期而买入。
@unusual_whales 说实话，$TSLA 的基本面很烂，但可能值得买入，只是因为 @elonmusk 看起来想拉升股价 lol。
英文原文
@unusual_whales Honestly, $TSLA has crap fundamentals, but might be a buy just because @elonmusk looks like he wants to pump the stock price up lol.
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批评盲目跟随Shkreli做空非生物股，指出市场常无逻辑。
@unusual_whales 抱歉，但对于任何非生物技术股，尤其是 $OPEN，关注 @MartinShkreli 是最愚蠢的主意。市场并非事事都有逻辑可循。看看他们所有的量子空头头寸，比如 $QBTS，现在都变成什么样了。
英文原文
@unusual_whales Sorry but following @MartinShkreli is the dumbest idea for any non-biotech stock, especially with $OPEN. Not everything needs to make sense with markets. Just look at how all their quantum shorts like $QBTS is going.
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认为HIMS能解决某问题
@unusual_whales $HIMS 可以解决这个问题。
英文原文
@unusual_whales $HIMS can fix this.
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博主因不确定而建立迷你仓位。
@junyongisusing1 我现在买了一个迷你仓位，只是因为我拿不准。https://t.co/ZXzZHFRABT
英文原文
@junyongisusing1 I bought a mini position now just cause I’m unsure https://t.co/ZXzZHFRABT
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批评在ETH高点买入其控股公司，指出1600美元才是最佳买点。
@robswainept 不，这是一家以太坊(ETH)控股公司，你正在历史最高价(ATH)时买入并陷入非理性繁荣(FOMO)。 最佳买入时机是我在1600美元时。而不是在4800美元时，然后再去买这些控股公司。
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@robswainept No, it’s an $ETH holding company and you’re buying into the fomo at ATH. Best time to buy was $1600 when I did. Not at $4800 and then buying the holding companies.
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看好NBIS回调买入，认为HIMS短期潜力最大。
我高确信度的股票不多，但 $NBIS 在 90 美元时是其中之一。任何回调都是强力买入机会。 一家拥有如此多远期营收的公司市值仅为 210 亿美元，这简直不可思议。$IREN 也很棒，但目前更具投机性且需要稀释。 不过 $HIMS 在未来 3 个月内的潜力最大，空头比率(SI)高达 42%。https://t.co/Mg9ZN12rRV
英文原文
I don’t have many high conviction stocks but $NBIS is one at $90. Strong Buy on any dip 21B MC for a company with so much forward rev is insane. $IREN is great as well but more speculative atm + needs dilution $HIMS has the most potential though over the next 3m from 42% SI. https://t.co/Mg9ZN12rRV
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查理·柯克逝世引发悲伤，但看好$RUM因保守派热度及估值回调带来的投机机会。
为查理·柯克(Charlie Kirk)的离世而交易感到极其悲伤，但我怀疑在下次回调时，$RUM 是否是一个不错的投机性买入机会。 由于新发现的保守派参与度增加以及白宫流媒体业务，$RUM 的财报可能高于预期，且该股年初至今下跌 42%，更具吸引力。https://t.co/pf8Se71gcR
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It’s extremely sad to trade Charlie Kirk’s passing but I wonder if $RUM would be a good speculative buy in the next dip. RUM earnings likely higher than expected from all newfound conservative engagement + White House streams and stock is more attractive down 42% YTD. https://t.co/pf8Se71gcR
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批评博主用技术分析误导新手，指出BMNR本质是ETH持有公司。
@MrMikeInvesting 你难道喜欢用这些图表欺骗新手，并借此售卖课程吗？你难道不清楚 $BMNR 是一家持有 $ETH 的公司吗？ 虽然 ETH 上涨确实有可能带动它涨到 100 美元，但在 BMNR 上叠加技术分析(TA)会让任何懂行的人觉得你蠢透了。
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@MrMikeInvesting Do you enjoy scamming newcomers with these charts and selling courses from it? You do realize $BMNR is an $ETH holding company.. There’s always a chance it goes to $100 from ETH rallying but adding a TA on BMNR makes you look so stupid to anyone who knows what they’re doing
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看好LULU当前价位，预计11-12月反弹但受税务影响力度减弱。
@soulbiri1 我喜欢在这些价位附近的 $LULU。下个月可能会进一步下跌，但由于该板块通常在11月至12月表现最佳，因此应该会恢复。不过，由于今年迄今已下跌58%，出于税务亏损平均化(tax loss averaging)的考虑，其复苏力度应会比往年更温和。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I like $LULU around these levels. Could drop more next month but should recover Nov -> December because sector usually performs best around then. Recovery should be more muted though from previous years from tax loss averaging cause it’s down 58% ytd.
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分析SOL与LTC走势差异，建议利用杠杆清算机会逢低买入。
如果你在没有大盘大幅下跌的情况下看到这种情况： 1. 杠杆率为10-50倍的交易者被清算。 2. LTC ETF 将被拒绝。 大概率是 #1。 $SOL 已经被抢跑（7天内上涨20%+）。$LTC 尚未被抢跑，且发射日期为10月2日。 在杠杆清算期间逢低买入是有利可图的 https://t.co/95GmmYW9LR
英文原文
If you see this without a wide market drop: 1. Traders with 10-50x leverage got liquidated. 2. LTC ETF will get denied. It's prob #1. $SOL already got frontran (up 20%+ in 7D). $LTC has not and launch is Oct 2nd. It's profitable to buy dips during leverage liquidations https://t.co/95GmmYW9LR
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对比 Oracle 与微软在 AI 领域的交易确定性，质疑 OpenAI 支付能力。
@taleino93 @unusual_whales 我真的不知道 $ORCL 该往哪个方向走。Oracle 的交易对象是 OpenAI，而 OpenAI 甚至没有 3000 亿（美元）的体量。$MSFT 与 $NBIS 的交易已确认金额为 170 亿美元，鉴于微软的背景，NBIS 被低估了。时间会证明 OpenAI 能否支付得起。
英文原文
@taleino93 @unusual_whales I genuinely don’t know which direction to go with $ORCL. Oracle’s deal was with OpenAi, which doesn’t even have 300B. $MSFT deal with $NBIS is is confirmed with $17B, since it’s Microsoft so NBIS is undervalued. Time will tell if OpenAI can pay up.
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看好LTC因ETF预期及供应稀缺性，预计数月内涨幅达300%。
注意，#LTC 在未来几个月内有望上涨 300%。 1. LTC ETF 将于 10 月 2 日推出，抢跑行情才刚刚开始（自从我发帖以来已上涨 5.35%）。 2. 市值仅 80 亿美元，却已获得机构采用。 3. 少量的 LTC 储备将实质上消耗掉大部分流通供应，且已有 5-15% 的供应永久丢失。 我很少发布关于加密货币的内容，主要的一次是在 #ETH 从 1600 美元涨到 4800 美元之前。
英文原文
Heads up, #LTC is a potential 300% in the next few months. 1. LTC ETF October 2nd and the front running has just begun (up 5.35% since I posted. 2. Puny 8B MC with institutional adoption. 3. Small amounts of LTC reserves will literally eat up majority of the supply and 5-15% of the supply is already permanently lost. I don’t post much about crypto, and the main time I did was with #ETH before it went from $1600 to $4800.
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强调$HIMS高做空比例带来的逼空潜力，认为风险收益比值得。
我不知道该强调多少次了，关于 $HIMS 一家市值110亿美元、盈利且快速增长的公司，做空比例(short interest)高达42%……有潜力像 $OPEN 或 $GME 那样，在逼空(short squeeze)行情中创造历史。 风险收益比(risk reward)值得博取。
英文原文
I don’t know how to reiterate this enough for $HIMS 42% short interest on a 11B, profitable, and fast growing company… has the potential to make history on a short squeeze like $OPEN or $GME. The risk reward is worth it. https://t.co/xoCKXMzdqu
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建议禁用股票出借，因该股42%已被做空。
@himshouse 确保在你的券商处也禁用股票出借(stock lending)。该股票42%已被做空(sold short)。
英文原文
@himshouse Make sure to disable stock lending on your brokerage too. The stock is 42% sold short.
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SOL被抢跑，XRP基本面荒谬，LTC因ETF预期看涨至200美元。
@mamadamacdonald $SOL 已经被抢跑（frontran），$XRP 的基本面荒谬程度与 $PLTR 相当。 $LTC 在 ETF 获批和莱特币国库（Litecoin treasuries）方面仍有巨大上涨空间。鉴于市值（MC）很小，一旦积累足够，我们很可能会看到巨大的飙升。$200+。
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@mamadamacdonald $SOL already got frontran and $XRP fundamentals are just as absurd as $PLTR. $LTC has a ton of room to run with etf approval and Litecoin treasuries. Given the MC is so small, we’ll likely see some massive spike when enough gets accumulated. $200+
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建议同时持有UPWK和HIMS，前者避税，后者博反弹。
@mattia030339 我会说两个都做，除非你的仓位已满。$UPWK 自从我发帖以来涨了很多，所以可能最好持有它以获得长期资本利得税优惠。否则，$HIMS 由于42%的做空比例，如果在回调时能买入，可能在近中期有更大的潜力。
英文原文
@mattia030339 I’d say do both unless you’re full port. $UPWK went up a ton since i posted so might be a good idea to just get long term capital gains tax on it. Otherwise $HIMS probably has more potential near/mid term cause of 42% short interest, if you can catch it on a dip.
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建议买入垄断且低估的台积电，因其他AI股均依赖其代工。
如果你在纠结 $ORCL 对比 $AMZN | $GOOGL，$AMD | $AVGO 对比 $NVDA，$NBIS 对比 $IREN 对比 $WYFI 对比 $CRWV 这很简单。直接买入 $TSM，上述所有公司都依赖于它。 估值偏低且拥有垄断地位，基于未来增长 + 边缘推理(Edge Inference)的资本支出，市值有望从 1.3 万亿美元 -> 1.8 万亿美元。
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If you're debating $ORCL vs. $AMZN | $GOOGL, $AMD | $AVGO vs. $NVDA, $NBIS vs. $IREN vs. $WYFI vs. $CRWV It's easy. Just buy $TSM, everything above is dependent on it. Undervalued and a monopoly, will likely run from $1.3T -> $1.8T MC based on forward growth + capex from ERs.
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HOOD无目标价但具高赔率，看好其银行业务带来的颠覆性催化。
@Lovefist17 没有目标价。我只是猜测其风险回报比值得，它可能会像 PLTR 那样，市值飙升至被高估的 4000 亿美元。标普指数（S&P）对大盘股的被动资金流入简直愚蠢。此外，$HOOD 正在推出银行业务，这极具颠覆性且是良好的催化剂。
英文原文
@Lovefist17 No price target. I'm just guessing it's worth the risk/reward that it pulls a PLTR and goes to a overvalued 400B market cap. Passive inflows from S&P is just stupid with large caps. Also $HOOD is launching banking which is extremely disruptive + good catalyst
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类比HOOD估值，指出HIMS盈利且市值小，空头因股价坚挺而恐慌。
@himshouse 这让我想起当 $HOOD 股价交易在 18 美元时，所有人都给出 12 美元目标价(PT)的情景。 42%的做空比例(Short Interest)在股价于他们额外做空 6% 后仍守住 50 美元时感到恐慌。 $HIMS 实现盈利，正在收购公司，市值仅 100 亿美元，且有新产品发布。
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@himshouse This reminds me when everyone gave $HOOD a $12 PT when the stock was trading at $18. The 42% short interest are scared when price is holding $50 after they shorted another 6%. $HIMS is profitable, acquiring companies, small 10B market cap, and with new product launches.
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博主列出下月基于潜力最看好的五只股票及买入逻辑。
如果我要根据潜力在下个月买入5样东西： 1. $HIMS - 42%的做空比例(SI)，新产品/降息催化剂+120万欧盟客户。逼空不可避免，只是时间问题。 2. $LTC - 抢在机构之前，为10月2日的ETF发行做准备。 3. $NBIS - 仅基于微软(MSFT)的交易，股价轻松达到100美元以上。抱歉了$IREN持有者。 4. $CRDO - 仅仅是为了追赶$ALAB的市值(MC)。 5. $HOOD - 鉴于标普(S&P)按市值加权且HOOD市值超1000亿美元，纳入标普的流入资金将大幅增加其市值。
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If I had to buy 5 things for the next month by potential: 1. $HIMS - 42% SI, new product/rate cut catalyst + 1.2M EU customers. Short squeeze inevitable, just a matter of time. 2. $LTC - Frontrun institutions for the ETF launch October 2nd. 3. $NBIS - Should easily be $100+ just based off of MSFT deal. Sorry $IREN holders. 4. $CRDO - Just to catchup $ALAB MC. 5. $HOOD - S&P inclusion flows will add a ton to the market cap given S&P is weighted by MC and hood is $100B+.
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空头成本高昂且公司增长，终将触发逼空。
嗯，空头持仓比例/借券可用性才是关键转折点。鉴于公司正在增长，且他们需为42亿美元($4.2B)的持仓支付借券费用，终归会有某个时点他们必须进行平仓。原本预期PPI数据加上惊喜的产品发布就是转折点，但看来他们又找到了几个百分点的股票来做空。
英文原文
Well the short interest %/borrow availability is the tipping point. At some point they’ll need to cover since company is growing and they’re paying borrow fees on $4.2B. Was expecting PPI + surprise product launch to be it but they found another few percent of shares to sell short I guess.
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HIMS空头加仓压制股价，高融券率下若买盘持续将引发轧空。
分析有误。对于 $HIMS，主要是因为空头又卖空了超过 2.5% 的流通盘，以防止股价突破 50 美元并触发抛物线式轧空（parabolic squeeze）。目前约 42% 的股票被卖空，如果买盘持续，他们将陷入困境。
英文原文
Analysis is off. For $HIMS it’s mainly because short sellers shorted another 2.5%+ of the float to prevent the stock from breaking out from $50 and triggering a parabolic squeeze. ~42% of the stock is now sold short and they’re trapped if buying pressure continued. https://t.co/QvgQu4MQod
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惊讶于巨额融券压制股价，认为上行空间大且下行风险低。
@NighthawkTradez 我很惊讶他们甚至设法借入流通股的42%进行做空，以将其价格压制在$50以下。考虑到价格依然坚挺，要回购的数量真是令人难以置信。现在上行波动性更大，下行风险更小。
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@NighthawkTradez I’m surprised they even managed to borrow 42% of the float to sell short to keep it under $50 That’s an insane number to buy back given the price is still holding strong. Even more volatile upside and less downside risk now.
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作者认为$APPL发布会后先跌后涨，看好iPhone Air但提示高风险。
有时我也喜欢赌一把。 $APPL 似乎总是在苹果发布会（Apple Event）上，当人们说它很糟糕时下跌。 然后在几天后，当他们进行股票回购（Buybacks）并改变公众叙事（Public Narrative）时反弹，就像苹果智能（Apple Intelligence）那样。 我挺喜欢 iPhone Air。这个交易（Play）风险极高。 https://t.co/d8Y1B0aDFP
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Sometimes I like to gamble too. $APPL somehow always falls every Apple event when people say it’s bad. Then a few days later rallies when they do buybacks and change public narrative like with Apple Intelligence. I quite like the iPhone Air. This play is extremely high risk. https://t.co/d8Y1B0aDFP
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作者认为$HIMS增长强劲，确信将引发空头回补。
@jliljliljlil 关于轧空(Short Squeeze)没有具体的时间点，它发生在空头头寸减少时。要么是出现50%以上的剧烈飙升，要么像2020年的 $TSLA 那样持续一年的缓慢轧空。鉴于 $HIMS 的增长势头以及在欧洲拥有120万客户，我非常有信心他们会进行空头回补(Cover)。
英文原文
@jliljliljlil There’s no pt on short squeezes, it’s whenever short interest decreases. Either there’s a whopping spike that goes up 50%+ or some sustained squeeze over a year like TSLA back in 2020. Given $HIMS growth + 1.2M customers in Europe, I have high conviction that they’ll cover.
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建议$SG波段交易关注$10，长期持有博财报利好反弹。
@okcnav 我在 WSB 上说，如果你是做波段交易(swing trading)，$10 是个好价位。 现实来看，如果财报(earnings)表现良好，股价完全可能重回 $14+。 人们忘了 $SG 不久前还是 $40 呢 lol，所以为了长期投资(investing)而持有它，承担这个风险是值得的。
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@okcnav On WSB I said $10 if you’re swing trading. Realistically it could go back to $14+ if earnings are good. People forget $SG was $40 not too long ago lol so worth the risk just holding it for investing.
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建议持有 $TSSI 以捕捉半导体牛市红利，预期单日涨幅超 10%。
如果你正考虑在 $TSSI 上获利了结，请记住该股在稀释前曾达 $30，且目前半导体牛市势头强劲，涉及 $SMCI、$TSM、$AVGO、$IREN、$NBIS、$WYFI、$NVDA 和 $ORCL。若涨势持续，单日涨幅可能超过 10%。
英文原文
If you’re thinking about taking profits on $TSSI, just remember the stock was $30 before dilution and there’s a huge semi bull run with $SMCI, $TSM, $AVGO, $IREN, $NBIS, $WYFI, $NVDA and $ORCL. Could see it go up 10%+ a day if the run continues. https://t.co/ks67hMAi01
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NBIS稀释利空已消化，股价获买盘支撑。
我说过，$NBIS 的稀释性回调已被完全买盘消化，因为市场早已将其定价。免费分享 6% 的回报 https://t.co/yo7W0HktdR
英文原文
Told you, $NBIS dilution dip completely bought out since it was already priced in. Free 6% https://t.co/yo7W0HktdR
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博主分享$TSM期权建仓细节，看高市值至1.8万亿并建议逢低买入。
如果你好奇的话，这就是我昨天买入的具体期权合约。我在进行成本平均法建仓，但可能会将规模扩大到价值30万美元的LEAPS（长期股权预期证券）。$TSM 的市值可能会反弹至1.8万亿美元，所以如果你打算跟随操作，试着寻找一个好的回调买入点。
英文原文
These were the exact strikes I bought yesterday if you were curious. I was cost averaging, but probably scaling it to $300k worth of leaps $TSM will probably rally to $1.8T market cap, so try and find a good dip if you’re tagging along. https://t.co/xyvc7WdSU7
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UPWK 16美元仍低估，减仓留底仓，目标价20-25美元。
我在 $UPWK 16.5-17 美元附近减仓，但保留部分仓位，以防回购+收购将其推升至 20-25 美元。 在 11-14 美元时它被完全低估。在 16 美元时它仍然被低估。 我会将合理价值目标价(PT)定为 20 美元，如果收购/现有产品增加远期营收，或者如果运营利润率提高，则定为 25 美元。无论如何，持有股票并在不确定时卖出看涨期权(CC)总是一个好主意。
英文原文
I trimmed $UPWK around $16.5-$17 and kept some in case buybacks + acquisitions take it to $20-25. At $11-14 it was completely undervalued. At $16 it's still undervalued. I'd put it $20 fair value PT and $25 if acquisitions/existing product increase forward rev. Or if operating margins increase. Either way, holding it and selling CC's if you're unsure is always a good idea.