个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2379 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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UPWK 16美元仍低估，减仓留底仓，目标价20-25美元。
我在 $UPWK 16.5-17 美元附近减仓，但保留部分仓位，以防回购+收购将其推升至 20-25 美元。 在 11-14 美元时它被完全低估。在 16 美元时它仍然被低估。 我会将合理价值目标价(PT)定为 20 美元，如果收购/现有产品增加远期营收，或者如果运营利润率提高，则定为 25 美元。无论如何，持有股票并在不确定时卖出看涨期权(CC)总是一个好主意。
英文原文
I trimmed $UPWK around $16.5-$17 and kept some in case buybacks + acquisitions take it to $20-25. At $11-14 it was completely undervalued. At $16 it's still undervalued. I'd put it $20 fair value PT and $25 if acquisitions/existing product increase forward rev. Or if operating margins increase. Either way, holding it and selling CC's if you're unsure is always a good idea.
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认为NBIS稀释已定价，建议趁恐慌下跌加仓。
（这意味着利用这段时间加仓）。稀释效应已被市场定价，若股价下跌7%以上则属过度反应。我正试图抄底，从散户恐慌抛售中吸纳更多 $NBIS。
英文原文
(what this means is use this time to add to your positions). Dilution was already priced in and if the stock drops 7%+ it's an overreaction. I'm just trying to time the bottom to add another large chunk of $NBIS from retail panic sellers.
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股价涨幅已反映稀释预期，否则应更高。
@StockSavvyShay 希望你们意识到，当股价上涨45%时，稀释效应(dilution)已经被定价(priced in)了。否则，考虑到合同规模，股价本应上涨100%以上。
英文原文
@StockSavvyShay Hope you guys realize dilution was already priced in when the stock went up 45%. Otherwise it would have went up 100%+ given the contract size.
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NBIS稀释已定价，资金用于微软合同是利好，类比ASTS融资后股价大涨。
如果你担心 $NBIS，请记住**稀释效应已被市场定价**。$MSFT 的合同价值超过 170 亿美元，未来 7 年多将增加 300%+ 的营收。$NBIS 当天仅上涨 45%，而非 250%+。如果他们将资金用于 $MSFT 合同而非像 $GME 或 $AMC 那样持有，这是积极的。$ASTS 也启动了用于产品部署的融资，股价从 22 美元 -> 18 美元 -> 50 美元。
英文原文
If you're scared about $NBIS remember **DILUTION WAS ALREADY PRICED IN** The $MSFT contract was 17B+, increasing forward rev by 300%+ for over 7 years. $NBIS gained 45% on the day not 250%+. It's positive if they're using it for the MSFT contract instead of just holding it like $GME or $AMC. $ASTS also launched a capital raise for product deployment and their stock went from $22 -> $18 -> $50.
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HIMS做空率极高且盈利增长，即将引发空头挤压。
超过36%的做空利率(short interest)意味着对冲基金正接近其借券做空的极限。与许多被大量做空的标的不同，$HIMS 并非无营收的投机标的，而是一家快速增长且盈利的企业。公司持续通过惊喜的产品发布（如今天）进行扩张，并即将在欧盟服务120万+客户以拓展未来营收。此时，这纯粹是一场看哪家对冲基金先平仓的竞赛——而空头挤压(short squeeze)也将由此开始。
英文原文
36%+ short interest means hedge funds are nearing the limits of how much they can borrow to short. Unlike many heavily shorted names, $HIMS isn’t a no-revenue play, it’s a fast-growing, profitable business. The company continues to expand with surprise product launches (like today) and will soon serve 1.2M+ customers in the EU to expand forward revenue. At this point, it’s simply a race to see which hedge funds cover their shorts first - and that’s when the short squeeze begins.
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降息预期推动成长股反弹，机构提前布局，年底指数或涨5-8%。
分析一下这意味着什么：短期内，这对成长股(growth stocks)非常有利，因为成长股对利率(rates)高度敏感。 像 $HOOD、$RKLB、$NBIS、$IREN、$ALAB、$CREDO 这样的许多股票将创历史新高，而 $HIMS、$CRWV、$SMCI、$MRVL、$TSSI 等股票也将恢复至历史高点(ATH)。 机构今年提前押注了“九月疲软”(September weakness)（大约在比特币达到 12.4 万美元时），因此随着降息预期叠加，股票在 9 月初再次上涨。 由于今年早些时候因关税(tariffs)和高通胀(high inflation)导致市场大幅崩盘，标普 500 指数 ETF (SPY) 的表现并未超越往年，因此我们可以看到指数在年底前再上涨 5%-8%。 17 日的降息几乎板上钉钉，所以机构正在提前布局(front-running)。散户可能认为降息当日股票会上涨，但实际消息公布后可能会导致抛售(selloff)。
英文原文
Just an analysis on what this means: short term, it's great for growth stocks = since growth stocks have high sensitivity to rates. You have a lot of stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $NBIS, $IREN, $ALAB, $CREDO that will hit all time highs or with $HIMS, $CRWV, $SMCI, $MRVL, $TSSI, and others, recovering to ATH. Insitutions frontran "September weakness" this year (Around the time BTC reached $124k), so stocks climbed again early SEPT due to rate cut on top of it. SPY hasn't really outperformed previous years either with the massive market crash earlier this year from tarrifs + high inflation so we can see index go up another 5%-8% by EOY. Rate cut is almost certain on the 17th, so institutions are front-running it. Retail probably thinks stocks go up on rate cut date, but the actual news might lead to a selloff.
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短期看涨抢跑降息，17日利好出尽卖出。
@WatcherGuru 恕我直言，短期看涨，抢跑降息预期，然后在17日利好出尽时卖出。
英文原文
@WatcherGuru IMO bullish short term, frontrunning rate cut, then sell the news on 17th.
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$SG单日涨5.3%，预期从$8回升至$10，期权流向异常。
表现不错，$SG 在一个交易日内上涨 5.3%+。 虽然从 $40 跌至 $8，但应该能回升至 $10。 不过未来两周的期权资金流向(Option flows)仍然有些怪异。https://t.co/YC5rtbEDy9
英文原文
Not bad, 5.3%+ in one trading day $SG. Still down from $40 to $8 but should be able to recover to $10. Option flows are still a bit wonky next two weeks though. https://t.co/YC5rtbEDy9
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TSSI 跟涨，看好 MRVL、SMCI 等超跌股反弹。
在我发帖两小时后，$TSSI 又上涨了 5.2%。 对于那些像 $MRVL、$SMCI 这样大幅下跌的股票，玩“跟风游戏”几乎等于白捡钱。 鉴于 $TSSI 从 30 多美元跌下来，仍有巨大的上涨空间。https://t.co/Ud9FgrAbz8
英文原文
And $TSSI up 5.2% 2 hours later after I posted. It’s almost free money playing follow the leader on stocks that are down a ton like $MRVL, $SMCI. Lot of room to run given that it dropped from the $30s. https://t.co/Ud9FgrAbz8
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建议现价持有GME或卖put，未来取决于CEO对现金的运用。
@LibertadEterno 在当前价格附近卖出看跌期权(puts)或持有 $GME 股票，我会感到比较安心。建议忽略分析师对此的看法，似乎具有不错的价值。此外，未来的走势很大程度上取决于 CEO 打算如何处理其庞大的现金储备。
英文原文
@LibertadEterno I'd be comfortable selling puts or holding GME stock around current prices. Probably ignore the analysts on this one, seems like good value. Otherwise, future really depends on what the CEO wants to do with the massive cash pile.
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买入TSSI，看好小盘半导体随AI板块反弹。
鉴于半导体反弹已扩展至如 $SMCI 等服务器机架领域，我买入了 $40K 的 $TSSI。该股从 $31 跌至 $13.6，考虑到 $TSM、$CREDO、$NBIS、$AVGO、$MRVL、$ALAB 等其他半导体/AI 股票均已反弹，小盘股反弹的机会很大。https://t.co/jWkww0Avro
英文原文
Bought $40K of $TSSI now that the Semi rally extended back to server racks like $SMCI. Down from $31 -> $13.6, good chance for a rebound for small caps given the rest of semis/AI from $TSM, $CREDO, $NBIS, $AVGO, $MRVL, $ALAB and others have rallied. https://t.co/jWkww0Avro
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博主买入10万美元NBIS，认为其涨幅未充分反映高增长。
是的，我买了价值10万美元的$NBIS，因为在年化经常性收入(ARR)增长300%+之后，35%的涨幅完全没有被定价。https://t.co/TX2gBVlrMy
英文原文
And yes I bought $100k worth of $NBIS since a 35% increase after 300%+ ARR is completely not priced in. https://t.co/TX2gBVlrMy
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认为$NBIS虽处高位但仍有巨大买入机会，预期后续上涨。
在我看来，$NBIS 是一个巨大的买入机会，即使它正处于历史高位。 他们刚刚通过一笔170亿美元的交易使收入翻了三倍，而本周股价仅上涨了25.67%。 这很可能是空头为了吓退看涨期权持有者/短期持有者而进行的打压，随后股价可能会迎来另一波上涨。 https://t.co/IBXJa46X1Q
英文原文
Huge buying opportunity for $NBIS imo, even despite all time highs. They just tripled their revenue with a 17 Billion Dollar deal and it’s only up 25.67% this week. Probably short to scare of calls/short term holders then another rally down the road. https://t.co/IBXJa46X1Q
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不看好SG但预期其反弹，更看好TSM等标的。
@moonman6577 我对 $SG 不太看好。如果让我挑选我看好（bullish）的股票，我会选 $TSM、$HOOD、$RKLB、$CREDO、$NBIS 等。但我认为 $SG 会反弹，因为它因短期期权（option）资金流而超卖（oversold），而且我单纯就是喜欢他们的沙拉。
英文原文
@moonman6577 I'm not too bullish on $SG. If I had to pick stocks I'm bullish on it would be $TSM, $HOOD, $RKLB, $CREDO, $NBIS and others. But I see $SG rebounding since it's oversold from short-term option flows and I simply just like their salad.
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SG下跌源于期权对冲而非基本面，视为可买入的回调机会。
@lionsfan5116 说实话，除非是 $SMCI，否则首席财务官(CFO)退休没什么大不了的。 $SG 下跌 8.2% 看起来是由期权交易流驱动的（9/19 超过 1 万张 $8 看跌期权导致做市商(MM)做空），而非基本面变化。 对冲可能过度放大了抛售，因此鉴于下跌源于短期对冲，我会称之为可买入的回调。 https://t.co/crWek6LeYR
英文原文
@lionsfan5116 TBH, CFO retiring is nothing unless it's $SMCI. $SG dropping 8.2% looks option flow-driven (10k+ $8 puts 9/19 caused MM shorts), not fundamental changes. Hedging likely overshot the selloff, so I'd call it a buyable dip since drop was due to short term hedging. https://t.co/crWek6LeYR
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交易规模达年收入300%，当前涨幅未完全反映该利好。
@__visionxry__ 是的，当然。这笔交易金额相当于其年收入的300%以上，这太疯狂了。 目前45%以上的涨幅甚至还没有完全反映（priced in）这笔交易的影响。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ Yep of course. It just 300%+ their yearly revenue, which is insane. The 45%+ bump hasn't even fully priced in the deal yet.
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澄清未买IREN，建议投机性关注MARA、RIOT或WYFI。
@__visionxry__ 我从未买入 $IREN。我只是在观察比特币挖矿股票在未来几个月的潜力。 如果非要在这两只股票上进行投机性赌博，我可能会买入 $MARA / $RIOT 或 $WYFI。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ I never entered $IREN. I was just looking at potential of bitcoin mining stocks over the next few months. I'd probably buy $MARA / $RIOT or $WYFI if i had to take a speculative gamble on two though.
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MEIP若低于NAV可买入，否则建议直接持有LTC。
@MilesTa53993799 我需要做更多研究，对 MEIP 不太熟悉。如果它拥有大量的 LTC 储备且交易价格低于净资产价值(NAV)，那就是一个不错的买入标的。否则，就坚持持有原生资产 LTC 即可。
英文原文
@MilesTa53993799 I'll need to do more research on MEIP not familiar with it. If it has significant LTC reserves and under NAV, it's a good buy. Otherwise, just stick with the native asset LTC.
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平仓 $ALAB 多头并做空，用 $CREDO 对冲，认为前者超买后者将补涨。
我改变了对 $ALAB 的看法，在 $217 获利了结，因此平掉多头并建立空头头寸，同时使用 $CREDO 作为对冲。$ALAB 在上涨 14% 后感觉有些超买。不过 $CREDO 应该很快会补涨。
英文原文
Changed my mind on $ALAB, took profit at $217 so exited long and opened up short with $CREDO as a hedge. ALAB feels a bit overbought after going up 14%. $CREDO should play catchup soon though. https://t.co/oDIuqi0mFn
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趁恐慌在 $8.22 买入 $SG，认为极度恐惧是最佳买点。
当人们感到恐慌时，我在股价跌至 $8.22 时买入 $100k 的 $SG。没有任何消息，股价下跌 8.2%+。与此同时，市场以及像 $HOOD、$RKLB、$ALAB、$CREDO、$HIMS、$APP 这样的高贝塔股票正在上涨。最佳的买入时机是在散户恐慌抛售他们 $40 买入的筹码时的极度恐惧时刻 https://t.co/vBZhOJF1y0
英文原文
While people are scared, bought $100k $SG on the drop to $8.22. No news, down 8.2%+. Meanwhile markets and high beta stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $ALAB, $CREDO, $HIMS, $APP are rising. Best time to buy is on the extreme fear when retail are selling the shares they bought at $40 https://t.co/vBZhOJF1y0
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持有LTC观察现货ETF后走势，预期市值小或有300%涨幅。
@mattia030339 毫无头绪。只是持有以观察现货ETF推出后的走势。 如果有加密国债在现货ETF后采用LTC，可能会涨300%。市值极小，所以我相信会有动力进行此类操作。
英文原文
@mattia030339 No clue. Just holding to see where it goes after ETF launch. Could 300% if there's crypto treasuries that adopt LTC after a spot ETF. Market cap is extremely tiny so I'm sure there's some incentive to do this type of play.
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UPWK 估值极低，靠提利润率和回购可涨至 25 美元。
@triforcerytp 人们转向自由职业(freelancing)，这很积极，除非发生严重衰退。即使营收下降，$UPWK 只需提高利润率即可。其股票被严重低估，管理层只需削减冗余(bloat)即可达到 25 美元。1 亿美元的回购也有帮助。
英文原文
@triforcerytp People turn to freelancing, so positive, unless it’s a major recession. Even if revenue drops, $UPWK just needs to increase profit margins. Their stock is incredibly undervalued and all management needs to do is cut out bloat to reach $25. $100m in buybacks helps too.
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跟随HOOD入标普500买入BULL，看好其增长与散户基础。
现在跟着领头羊走。 跟随 $HOOD 被纳入标普500指数的消息，买入10万美元的 $BULL。 奇怪的是，在获得18美元超配评级目标价后，股价反而下跌了2.4%，可能是受Instagram上过多的每周电话会议影响。 其45%的同比增长率与Hood相似，拥有来自WSB（华尔街梗）的庞大且受认可的散户基础。 短期风险在于9月份随机的宏观经济数据。 https://t.co/mSkBpoxCMI
英文原文
Now playing follow the lead. Bought $100k of $BULL following $HOOD S&P. Weird it dropped 2.4% on a $18 outperform price target, too many weekly calls IG. Growing rev of 45% y/y similar to Hood, massive regarded retail base from WSB. Short term risk is random Sept macro. https://t.co/mSkBpoxCMI
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HOOD入标普500，新品与银行业务将引资金流入，或成PLTR v2。
$HOOD 被纳入标普500指数(S&P 500)。 周二将发布新产品，银行业务即将上线。 鉴于其市值，大量资金正涌入Robinhood。这可能成为PLTR v2。 这只是基于WSB直觉进行的尽职调查(DD)！你们中的一些人可能看到了我那条猜测其将被纳入的已删除帖子 lol https://t.co/h8txi6mQD2
英文原文
$HOOD added to S&P 500. New product launch on Tuesday and banking coming soon. Huge money flows coming into Robinhood given market cap soon. Might be PLTR v2. This is just WSB instincts that go into DD! Some of you probably saw my deleted post guessing inclusion lol https://t.co/h8txi6mQD2
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博主认为短期持有该股风险回报比佳，看好新产品及公司基本面。
@MilesTa53993799 另外，我认为在纳入日期之前持有它，其风险回报比是值得的。 下跌4%，他们下周二有新产品线，而且这是一家各方面都很棒的公司 lol。 我只是一个短期波段交易者。
英文原文
@MilesTa53993799 Also it’s worth the risk/reward just holding it past inclusion date imo. Down 4%, they have new product lines next Tuesday, and great company all around lol. I’m just a short term swing trader
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博主表示正在日内交易HOOD，并将根据走势调整策略。
@MilesTa53993799 我正在日内交易 $HOOD，我会根据走势进行调整 https://t.co/kZQxXl0zjr
英文原文
@MilesTa53993799 I’m day trading $HOOD, I’ll adjust based on how it goes https://t.co/kZQxXl0zjr
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UPWK低于20美元极具吸引力，建议等待或观察其收购进展。
@DanielTan64198 $UPWK 低于 $20 时强烈暗示买入。$25 似乎估值合理，市盈率约 14 倍。 谁知道未来某天会不会涨到 $75 呢。Upwork 盈利能力极强，且坐拥大量现金储备，所以如果你是投资者，不妨静观其变，看看他们的收购进展如何。否则我会建议等到 $20 以上再考虑。
英文原文
@DanielTan64198 $UPWK under $20 is screaming buy. $25 seems fair valued ~14 p/e. Could end up at $75 one day who knows. Upwork is extremely profitable and is just sitting on a cash pile, so if you're an investor just wait and see how their acquisitions go. Otherwise I'd wait to $20+
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UPWK启动回购，低估值高利润，无视季节性风险。
$UPWK 刚刚宣布启动 1 亿美元的股票回购计划，回购规模约占其流通股的 5%。 让我们再次重申以下几点： 1. 市值约 20 亿美元，年营收 7.73 亿美元，毛利率 77.8%。 2. 拥有巨额现金储备，盈利能力强，市盈率约 9 倍。扩张中的利润率 + 新业务收购并未反映在远期营收预期中。 如果你担心 $RKLB、$CRWV、$IREN、$HIMS、$WULF 等 9 月份的高贝塔股票，当你的市值如此低且正在“印钞”时，季节性因素就不重要了。 Upwork 可能是当前市场中被低估且利润极其丰厚的股票。
英文原文
$UPWK just announced it's buying ~5% of it's float back with a $100M repurchase program. Let's reiterate this one more time: 1. ~2B market cap, with 773M yearly revenue and 77.8% gross margins. 2. Big Cash Pile, profitable, ~9 p/e. Expanding margins + new business acquisitions not priced into forward revenue. If you're worried about $RKLB, $CRWV, $IREN, $HIMS, $WULF and other high beta stocks from September, seasonality doesn't matter if your market cap is this low and you're printing money. Upwork is probably the most undervalued and immensely profitable stocks to hold in this market.
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关注IREN，类比NBIS，看好矿企转型AI的投资机会。
在 $IREN 涨至 $30+ 后，我仍在关注它。这让我想起 $CRWV 大幅上涨后的 $NBIS。 有什么能阻止 $MARA、$RIOT、$CIFR、$CLSK、$HUT 等从比特币(BTC)转向人工智能(AI)吗？ 这可能是一个绝佳的投资机会。https://t.co/1HJSHsiPml
英文原文
Still looking @ $IREN after it's rise to $30+. Reminds me of $NBIS following $CRWV's massive rise. There's nothing stopping $MARA, $RIOT, $CIFR, $CLSK, $HUT and others from pivoting from BTC into AI right? Might be a great investment opportunity. https://t.co/1HJSHsiPml
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认为MRVL财报后大跌属过度反应，建议定投。
$MRVL 财报后下跌18%完全是过度反应。未来一个月是定投(Marvell)头寸的绝佳时机。
英文原文
$MRVL 18% drop after earnings was a complete overreaction. Perfect time to DCA into Marvell positions over the next month.