个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2379 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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计划对IREN进行深入研究，初步印象良好。
@SCurveCapital 我很快会对 $IREN 进行更深入的基本面研究(DD)，我之前听过这个名字，乍一看看起来相当稳健。
英文原文
@SCurveCapital I'll do a deeper DD soon on $IREN, I've heard the name before it looks pretty solid at first glance.
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博主列出各领域高增长潜力股，预测5年千倍回报。
基于当前估值，我5年1000%回报的“登月”组合(Moonshot baskets)。 太空 - $RKLB (2200亿) AI - $CRWV (4700亿) 半导体(Semi) - $CREDO (2000亿), $TSSI (38亿) 加密货币(Crypto) - $BKKT (18亿) 金融科技(Fintech) - $DJT (490亿) 社交(Social) - $BMBL (62亿) 健康(Health) - $HIMS (950亿) 软件(Software) - $UPWK (190亿) 你们的选择是什么？
英文原文
My moonshot baskets for 1000% returns in 5y given current valuations. Space - $RKLB (220B) AI - $CRWV (470B) Semi - $CREDO (200B), $TSSI (3.8B) Crypto - $BKKT (1.8B) Fintech - $DJT (49B) Social - $BMBL (6.2B) Health - $HIMS (95B) Software - $UPWK (19B) What are your picks?
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反向指标提示比特币底部，建议买入IBIT。
如果人们让你在市场底部恐慌抛售而不是在顶部抛售，这大概是一个买入比特币 | $IBIT 的好指标（假设在11万美元时）。
英文原文
This is probably a good indicator to buy Bitcoin | $IBIT at $110k if people are telling you to panic sell at bottoms instead of tops.
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HIMS 业绩高增且盈利，空头头寸过重，建议买入持有待空头平仓。
$HIMS 在 42 美元是轻松买入并持有标的。空头头寸占流通股本比例升至 34.59%，这是一家市值 97 亿美元、空头市值超 30 亿美元的美元计价公司。 对冲基金做空像 $HIMS 这样盈利且高增长的公司，却去持有 $IONQ 和 $OKLO——这两家公司零收入却市值超 100 亿美元，这简直是愚蠢做空的定义。 HIMS 通过收购 Zava 在欧洲获得了 130 万+客户，这一利好尚未被市场预测完全定价。目前数据如下： - 2024 年营收约 14.8 亿美元（增长 69%） - 滚动十二个月营收（2025 年中）约 20.1 亿美元（增长约 88.7%） - 2025 年 Q2 营收 5.448 亿美元（同比增长 73%）。 增长最终将重创空头头寸。 简而言之：在空头平仓前，HIMS 是轻松买入并持有的标的。
英文原文
$HIMS is an easy buy + hold at $42. Short interest ⏫ to 34.59% of float and ~$3 Billion + USD / 9.7B market cap company. Hedge funds shorting a profitable, growth company like $HIMS while $IONQ and $OKLO — both with 0 revenue, 10B+ market caps is the definition of a stupid short. HIMS acquired 1.3M+ customers across Europe through the Zava acqusition, which forecasts haven't priced in yet. Currently they're doing: - 2024 Revenue~$1.48 billion (up 69%) - TTM Revenue (mid-2025)~$2.01 billion (up ~88.7%) - Q2 2025 Revenue $544.8 million (+73% YoY). Growth will ultimately screw the short position. TLDR: HIMS is an easy buy + hold until the shorts unwind.
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推荐SG等7只股票的波段机会，警示避开CRCL等3只股票的下跌。
目前有一些不错的超跌反弹/波段交易机会： 1. $SG - $9.39 2. $SNAP - $7.21 3. $UNH - $306.8 4. $ETOR - $46.8 5. $NVO - $57.00 6. $HIMS - $44.73 7. $CRWV - $94.7 远离这些下跌（不要抄底）： 1. $CRCL - $136.2 2. $PLTR - $159.6 3. $DUOL - $334.5
英文原文
Some decent recovery/swing trades right now 1. $SG - $9.39 2. $SNAP - $7.21 3. $UNH - $306.8 4. $ETOR - $46.8 5. $NVO - $57.00 6. $HIMS - $44.73 7. $CRWV - $94.7 Stay away from these dips 1. $CRCL - $136.2 2. $PLTR - $159.6 3. $DUOL - $334.5
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UPWK估值极低且期权信号积极，是极具吸引力的价值投资标的。
$UPWK 是最安全的价值投资标的，甚至优于 $UNH、$NVO、$GOOGL 等。做市商清洗了 Upwork 8月15日到期的看涨期权未平仓合约，目前股价正在反弹，理应高于 $17.5+。一家年营收 7.7 亿美元、毛利率约 80% 的 18 亿美元软件公司，几乎是白送的钱。
英文原文
$UPWK is the safest value play, even over $UNH, $NVO, $GOOGL, and others. Market makers flushed Upwork call open interest for August 15th, and now it's rallying where it should be above $17.5+. A 1.8B software company with ~80% gross margins doing 770m in annual revenue is almost free money.
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建议持有UPWK至17-23美元，认为当前卖出不明智。
@Alan_24z 在股价交易于 $17-23 之前，这是一个容易且低风险的持有标的。由于有大量的未平仓合约将在8天后到期，预计会出现做空/伽马对冲行为。 $UPWK 利润率高、利润率在增长、现金状况强劲，且刚刚上调了指引，因此在 $13-$14 卖出是愚蠢的。
英文原文
@Alan_24z It's an easy low-risk hold until it trades $17-23. There's too much open interest expiring in 8 days so expect shorting/gamma hedging. $UPWK is high profitable, growing margins, strong cash position and just raised guidance so selling at $13-$14 is stupid.
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UPWK 财报后扩利成功，估值偏低有望重估。
$UPWK 在今天财报发布后，加上空头头寸/分析师上调评级，将会进行一些重新定价。 他们所需要做的只是在其 78% 的毛利率基础上扩大营业利润率，而他们做到了。 一家市值 15 亿美元的公司，实现 7.7 亿美元财年营收，营业利润率增长，且拥有强劲的现金头寸。
英文原文
$UPWK is will do some repricing after earnings today + short interest/analyst upgrades. All they needed to do was expand operating margins on their 78% gross margins and they did. 1.5B company doing 770m FY revenue, growing operating margins, and a strong cash position.
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博主看好 $KSPI 估值与增长，已建仓并计划加仓至 $250k。
$KSPI 在本周下跌 7.2% 后，于 $82 价位是极佳的买入机会。因此我买入了超过 $100k 的仓位，计划逐步加仓至 $250k 的成本均价。 除了 $HOOD $SOFI $BULL 之外，$KSPI 作为一家金融科技(fintech)公司，同比增长 47%，利润率 31%，市盈率(P/E) 仅为 7.9。 可能会发一篇类似 WSB 风格的文章来讨论这个。 https://t.co/JdyYm2rBuV
英文原文
$KSPI is an extremely good buy at $82 after this week's 7.2% drop. So bought $100k+ worth, plan to scale this to $250k cost average. $HOOD $SOFI $BULL aside, $KSPI is growing 47% Y/Y as a fintech with 31% profit margins and a 7.9 P/E. Might make a WSB style post about this. https://t.co/JdyYm2rBuV
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ALAB因覆盖五大科技巨头且高增长高毛利，有望复制英伟达路径实现千倍涨幅。
$ALAB 之所以起飞，是因为 Astera 是唯一一家系统性暴露于五大科技巨头（Mag7）中5家的小盘股。 1. ALAB 的客户群字面意义上就是 Mag7：$GOOGL、$MSFT、$NVDA、$META 和 $AMZN。 2. 他们的增长率令人惊叹，同比增长 ~150%+，毛利率为 76%（高于 NVDA，是半导体市场中最高的之一）。 3. 正如 $GOOGL 财报所示，AI 支出的资本支出仍在增加。 NVDA 从 1500 亿市值起步 -> 4 万亿+，因为超大规模数据中心需要 GPU。我们正处于 ALAB 在 AI 供应链中产生这种效应的起点，而其市值仅为 200 亿。 如果他们执行得当且 AI 基础设施建设持续，我们可能会看到下一个 1000% 的涨幅。
英文原文
The reason why $ALAB is taking off is because Astera is the only small cap company in existence with systemic exposure to 5 of the Mag7. 1. ALAB's customer base is literally Mag 7: $GOOGL, $MSFT, $NVDA, $META, and $AMZN. 2. They're growing at astounding rates ~150%+ y/y, with 76% margins (with higher margins than NVDA, one of the highest in the semi market). 3. Capex is still increasing for AI spend, as seen with $GOOGL earnings. NVDA started at a 150B market cap -> 4 TRILLION+ because hyperscalers needed GPUs. We're the start of this effect with ALAB for the AI supply chain, and it's starting at a small 20B market cap. We could see this being the next 1000% if they execute properly and AI infrastructure buildout continues.
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博主宣布做空 Palantir 股票。
做空 $PLTR，谢谢 Jim。
英文原文
Shorting $PLTR, thanks Jim. https://t.co/2xKvNnPqvE
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特朗普增持比特币，建议跟随DJT操作做多IBIT。
🚿想法：如果美国在2天后的公告改变政策，通过增持来推高比特币 $IBIT 的价格，我并不感到惊讶。 特朗普今天刚购买了3亿美元的比特币看涨期权，并为其 $DJT 公司购买了20亿美元的比特币。 DJT 就是新的南希·佩洛西，跟着她的操作走就行。
英文原文
🚿thoughts: Not surprised if the US announcement in 2 days changes US policy to inflate Bitcoin $IBIT prices by acquiring more. Trump just bought 300m in Bitcoin calls today along with 2B in Bitcoin for his $DJT company. DJT is the new Nancy Pelosi, just follow the lead.
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$RKT 空头比例超 60%，高抛压或引发轧空行情。
对于关注 $RKT 的人来说，其空头头寸比例(short interest)超过 60%，这简直令人难以置信。通常散户无法对市值 300 亿美元以上的公司进行轧空(short squeeze)，但在如此高的空头头寸比例下，这绝对是有可能的。
英文原文
For people looking at $RKT, short interest is over 60%+ which is absolutely insane. Usually retail can't squeeze a $30B+ company but with the high short interest, it's definitely possible.
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博主出于原则买入$DNUT，抗议空头恶意做空其喜爱的甜甜圈品牌。
通常我不会参与像 $RKT、$KSS 这样的迷因股(Meme Stocks)炒作，但我真的无法忍受空头通过抛售32%的流通盘，将我喜爱的甜甜圈店做空至破产。这次纯粹是出于原则。我买入价值3万美元的 $DNUT，只为向空头表达强烈的不满。https://t.co/jTNnxFNJlq
英文原文
Normally I don't join on meme rallies like $RKT, $KSS, but I really don't appreciate short sellers shorting my favorite donut places to bankruptcy by selling 32% of the float. This one is out of principle. Bought $30k worth of $DNUT just to say f**k you to short sellers. https://t.co/jTNnxFNJlq
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买入$CRDO，视其为$ALAB对标股，看好其超高速增长潜力。
刚买入价值10万美元的$CRDO，因为它是一家与$ALAB类似的公司，且正以惊人的速度增长。两者处于相似的市场细分领域，且$CRDO上周下跌了8%。通常这类股票会同步上涨（例如$CRWV和$NBIS）。无论如何我都会持有，因为它是一家稳健的超高速增长公司。
英文原文
Just bought $100K worth of $CRDO as it's a similar company to $ALAB and also growing at insane rates. Similar market segments and it dropped 8% last week. Usually things rise together (eg. $CRWV + $NBIS). I'd hold anyway as it's a solid hyper growth company. https://t.co/v4kI2fb1Ef
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看好$ALAB长期潜力，建议持有而非波段交易。
嗯，$ALAB 刚刚暴涨了 16%。 我实际上不会进行波段交易或在此时获利了结，因为我认为这是另一只像英伟达(NVIDIA)那样能涨 500%+ 的股票。 你并不经常看到市值仅 160 亿美元的小盘公司，在服务于七大科技巨头(Mag7)的同时，还能实现 150%+ 的同比增长和 76% 的利润率。
英文原文
Well, $ALAB just shot up 16%. I actually wouldn't swing trade or take profit on this this since I think it's another NVIDIA 500%+ type stock. You don't really see small cap companies growing 150+ Y/Y with 76% profit margins serving Mag7 companies every day.
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Upwork 若借 AI 提升利润率，估值有望从 17 亿升至 69 亿。
如果 Upwork 能通过成本削减 + AI 自动化，将经常性收入的运营利润率从 20% 提升至 40–60%……那么运营利润为 7.7 亿美元 x 60% = 4.62 亿美元。按适度的 15 倍 EBIT 倍数计算，估值为 69 亿美元。对比今日 17 亿美元的市场规模，潜在上涨空间为 3–4 倍。
英文原文
If Upwork can scale operating margins from 20% → 40–60% on recurring revenue from cost-cutting + AI automations.. That’s $770M x 60% = $462M operating income. At a modest 15x EBIT multiple, that's a $6.9B valuation. VS today's $1.7B market cap, that’s a potential 3–4x upside.
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分析$UPWK低估值高现金流优势，强调利润率扩张逻辑。
所以，关于 Upwork 的长期投资逻辑： $UPWK 目前市盈率(P/E)为 7.5 倍，年营收约 7.7 亿美元，毛利率 78%，现金储备 6.22 亿美元——然而其市值仅为 17.4 亿美元。 当可以通过扩大运营利润率来扩张时，谁还在乎营收增长？
英文原文
So for the long term play on Upwork: $UPWK is trading at a 7.5 P/E with ~$770M in annual revenue, 78% gross margins, and $622M in cash — yet its market cap is only $1.74B. Who cares about revenue growth when they can just scale operating margins?
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ALAB类比英伟达，CREDO高增长，两者均为优质投资。
ALAB 让我想起英伟达的成长路径（极高的 GPU 利润率）+ 服务 Mag7。在半导体领域，从增长角度看，唯一相似的公司可能是 $CREDO，拥有 XAI/AWS/MSFT 客户，同比增长 180%。两者都是极佳的投资标的。
英文原文
ALAB reminds me of how Nvidia grew (extremely large GPU profit margins) + serving Mag7. Only similar company out growth wise in semis is probably $CREDO with XAI/AWS/MSFT customers with 180% y/y growth. Both are amazing investments.
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博主建仓 $ALAB 并计划加仓，看好其高利润、高增长及顶级客户群。
我刚刚在 $ALAB 上建立了约 17.5 万美元的长期头寸，并计划将其逐步加仓至约 50 万美元，将其视为一个潜在的市值超 500 亿美元的“登月”机会。 拥有类似英伟达 (NVDA) 的利润率（76%），同比增长超过 144%，客户包括英伟达 (NVDA)、亚马逊 (AWS)、微软 (MSFT)、谷歌 (GOOGL)、英伟达 (NVDA)、AMD，而市值仅为 160 亿美元。 不可思议的客户群 + 增长/利润率。 https://t.co/bRCBgtoGSB
英文原文
I just bought long term ~$175k+ positions in $ALAB and plan to scale this to ~$500k as a potential $50B+ moonshot. NVDA-like profit margins (76%), 144%+ Y/Y growth, customers like NVDA, AWS, MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA, AMD at 16B market cap. Unreal customers + growth/margins. https://t.co/bRCBgtoGSB
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建议持有至财报发布，股价支撑位约23美元。
@MR61615938 如果你不贪婪，可能像 $26 左右；如果你贪婪，可能是 $28+。它通常在财报发布时飙升，所以通常只需持有到那时。它有足够的资产，股价不太可能大幅跌破 $23。
英文原文
@MR61615938 Maybe like $26 if you're not greedy, $28+ if you are. It usually spikes around earnings so just hold until then usually. It has enough assets that shares are unlikely to drop too far beneath $23.
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博主分享今日在BULL、SG、GME和HIMS大跌时的买入操作。
🔥今天股市大幅抛售。在$BULL下跌15%至12.28时买入了一定数量。在$SG下跌6%至$13.8时买入（有时跌至13美元低位/12.8美元高位，因此暂缓建立主要仓位）。在$GME下跌3%至$23.00时买入。在$HIMS下跌5.6%至$45.26时买入。
英文原文
🔥Fire sale today for stocks. Bought a decent amount of $BULL on the 15% drop 12.28. Bought $SG $13.8 on the 6% drop (sometimes drops to low $13/high $12.8, so hold off on major positions). Bought $GME $23.00 on the 3% drop. Bought $HIMS $45.26 on the 5.6% drop.
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博主表示若为低流通盘IPO则考虑买入。
@notthefxckinone 我需要进一步研究一下。如果是像 $BULL 那样的低流通盘 IPO，我可能会买入。
英文原文
@notthefxckinone I'll need to look into it more. If it's one of those low float IPOs like BULL I'll probably buy in
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列出GME、SG、UNH、GOOGL的波段交易机会及SRPT研究。
目前的中/长期波段交易机会是： 1. $GME 在下跌 30% 之后 2. $SG 在下跌 49% 之后 3. $UNH 在下跌 45% 之后。 4. $GOOGL 再次跌至 $164 之后。为我的 WSB DD（深度研究）在 ~$150 买入看涨期权，在 $175 卖出，在 $164 重新买入，现在持有至 $185。 正在对 $SRPT 进行更多研究。
英文原文
Med/Long term swing trades right now are 1. $GME after the 30% drop 2. $SG after the 49% drop 3. $UNH after the 45% drop. 4. $GOOGL after the drop to $164 again. Bought calls ~$150 for my WSB DD, sold $175, rebought $164, now holding to $185. Doing more research on $SRPT.
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BKSY基本面差，但受太空板块带动补涨，交易成功。
关于 Blacksky ($BKSY) 的投资逻辑，老实说，这是一家相当糟糕的公司。然而，Planet Labs $PL 以及像 $RKLB $RDW 这样的卫星/太空公司此前曾出现过大幅飙升，而 Blacksky（行业相关）当时却毫无动静。最终它的价格补涨跟上了，所以这笔交易做对了。
英文原文
As for thesis on Blacksky ($BKSY) honestly, pretty terrible company. However, Planet Labs $PL + Satellite / Space companies like $RKLB $RDW had a huge spike awhile ago and Blacksky (industry adjacent) hadn't moved at all yet. It ended up catching up in price, so it worked.
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点评 TSSI、BKKT 及 Moonshot 的市值与前景。
TSSI 在市值约 2 亿美元时确实令人惊叹。 BKKT 2025 年第一季度的净营业亏损为 -1900 万美元，但比特币升值加上成本削减应该能帮他们一把，毕竟他们只有 2 亿美元的小市值。 Moonshot 要么市值达到 25 亿美元（从当前水平涨 10 倍），要么破产。
英文原文
TSSI is quite amazing back when they were $200m or so. BKKT has -19M net operating income loss for Q1 2025 but Bitcoin appreciation + cost cutting should help them out a bit with their small $200m market cap. Moonshot is a 2.5B market cap (10x from here) or bankruptcy.
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分享持有的微盘股及BKKT做空与加密行情逻辑
不能在WSB讨论微盘股，但如果你好奇： 我持有的只有三只：$BKKT（$12）、$TSSI（$8）、$BKSY（$11）。 对于BKKT，超过21%的公司股份被做空，且加密货币公司表现良好。我不建议追高，但持有少量仓位也不算最糟。https://t.co/yIzRzMAMD9
英文原文
Can't talk about microcaps on WSB, but if you're curious: Only three I've owned are $BKKT ($12), $TSSI ($8), $BKSY ($11). For BKKT, 21%+ of the company is sold short and crypto companies are doing well. I don't recommend chasing but not the worst to have small positions. https://t.co/yIzRzMAMD9
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回顾BULL因权证稀释导致股价崩盘的套利案例
当我之前做套利时，很明显一旦认股权证可以被赎回，$BULL 就会从 70 美元崩盘。然而，尽管相对于实际股价，10 美元行权价（每张 4.00 美元）的认股权证被严重错配，人们仍然盲目地在 30 美元以上买入该股票。简而言之：稀释会导致股价崩盘！
英文原文
When I was doing arbitrage earlier, it was clear $BULL was going to crash from $70 once warrants could be redeemed. Yet people blindly still bought the stock at $30+ after $10 strikes ($4.00 each) were so mispriced relative to the actual stock. TLDR: dilution crashes stocks!
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提醒关注新 IPO 稀释效应及 BULL、CRCL 禁售期影响。
人们不断私信我询问新 IPO。建议：如果你做空或做多，请密切关注稀释效应。$BULL 估值尚可，但人们需要关注活跃的禁售期。$CRCL 也有 180 天的禁售期，人们正在交易有限的流通盘，这就是它拥有 400 亿市值的原因。
英文原文
People keep DMing me about new IPOs. Advice: PAY ATTENTION to dilution if you're short/long. $BULL is okay valued but there's active lockups people need to follow. $CRCL has a 180 day lockup as well, people are trading with limited floats, which is why it has a 40B MC. https://t.co/3pjeQeTJ85
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作者买入少量，警示股价可能大幅回调，不建议全仓抄底。
披露：如果你们想跟随操作，我买入了一小部分。但它完全有可能像 UNH 从 $375 -> $320 -> $250 那样回落到 $13 附近再恢复，这就是为什么我从不建议在这种回调时全仓（full porting）买入。
英文原文
Disclosure: I bought a small amount if you ever want to follow along. But it's always possible for it to drop back to $13 similar to UNH $375 -> $320 -> $250 before recovering, which is why I never recommend full porting on dips like these.