· 个股论点
涉及标的： $SPRB
在 @MartinShkreli 发帖后，我查看了 $SPRB，它涉及 TA-ERT（酶替代疗法），属于突破性疗法。 粗略估算，如果 SPRB 的 TA-ERT 获批并长期占据 10-15% 的市场份额（对应 1.8 亿-2.7 亿美元 ARR），基于 14 亿美元的美国市场... 通过 2-3 倍营收计算，当前合理的公允价值可能在 2.8 亿-6.3 亿美元市值之间。 当然，从临床试验失败、商业化到稀释风险都很大，但 8500 万美元的市值看起来很有潜力？ （披露：我买了 5 万美元，纯粹作为高风险博弈） 显然我不是生物技术专家，这超出了我的专业领域，所以我想看看是否有其他领域专家能提供反馈或指出红旗警示。
I was looking at $SPRB after @MartinShkreli posted about it and it’s TA-ERT, breakthrough enzyme therapy replacement. Just from a quick search if SPRB’s TA-ERT is approved and they capture 10-15% market share longer term ($180–$270M ARR) of $1.4B US market... Realistic fair value today could be ~$280m-630m MC from 2-3x rev calculations. Obviously there’s a lot of risk from clinical failures, commercialization, to dilution but a $85M market cap looks promising? (disclosure I bought $50k worth just as a high risk gamble) Obviously I’m not an expert in biotech and this is outside my domain, which is why I wanted to see if anyone else with any domain knowledge had feedback or red flags.