个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2373 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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推荐研究 $VLN，认为其因现金储备下行风险低且仍被低估。
关于 $VLN 的帖子很棒！我建议每个人都对这类公司进行独立研究。其资产与市值的比率已不再是接近 1:1，但我个人感觉它仍然被严重低估，且由于现金储备充足，下行风险较低。让我们看看下一次财报后市场如何对其定价。
英文原文
Great post on $VLN! I’d recommend everyone do their own research on companies like this. It’s no longer close to 1:1 on assets/MC but personal my feeling was that it’s still deeply misvalued, with low downside risk due to cash balance. We’ll see how things get priced in after their next earnings.
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作者认为$AVAV因误读合同变更而遭错杀，已逆势加仓。
我的意思是，这相当于国防领域的$CRDO亚马逊连线事件。看看$AVAV： -> 将合同从研发型重新谈判为长期批量合同。 -> 媒体：“噢，不，那个花哨的Scar项目被暂停了” -> 毫无理由地暴跌17%。 当然由你决定，我个人认为这次抛售很愚蠢，所以加仓了。
英文原文
I mean this is the $CRDO Amazon wire incident equivalent. But in the Defense sector. Be $AVAV: -> Renegotiates contract from R&D type to long term volume contract. -> Media: "Oh no the fancy Scar program got halted" -> Sells off 17% for no reason. up to you though, I personally added since I thought this selloff was stupid.
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$AVAV获14亿合同，转固定价格模式被市场误解
@victor_privin $AVAV 在过去4个月中获得了14亿美元以上的合同。这是一次合同重新谈判（可能长期更有利）。其他交易安排(OTA)协议很多时候是为了原型设计和研发。转向固定价格(FFP)合同 = 锁定批量价格。完全被误解了
英文原文
@victor_privin $AVAV secured $1.4B+ in contracts in the past 4 months. This is a contract renegotiation (possibly better long term). OTA agreements a lot of times is for prototyping and R&D. Moving to an FFP contract = locking in price for volume. Completely misunderstood
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探讨国防资金与近期大额军购合同对标的的潜在影响。
@diyinvestguy 也许是拟议的1.5万亿美元国防部(DoD)资金，加上委内瑞拉突袭行动带来的顺风以及其他全球冲突。或者，也许是上个月8.74亿美元的综合不定量采购合同(IDIQ)交易，10月份5亿美元无人机(UAS)导弹交易，12月份4200万美元远程火箭炮(LRR)项目交易，以及总计超过14亿美元的更多交易？
英文原文
@diyinvestguy Perhaps the $1.5T proposed DoD funding + tailwinds from Venezuela raid + other global conflicts. Or maybe the $874m idiq deal last month, a $500m uas missile deal in October, another $42m LRR program deal in December, and more totaling $1.4B+?
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澄清SCAR项目未取消，因误读导致股价大跌，博主趁机加仓$AVAV。
我在$AVAV下跌16%时加仓了。 市场对SCAR项目新闻做出了错误反应。 - 市场认为SCAR项目被取消，因此抛售超15%。 - 事实并非如此。在8-K监管文件中，他们表示将“继续为SCAR项目提供能力和产品”。 - 这是合同重新谈判，并非取消。 此外，这只是一份1.75亿美元的远期营收合同。$AVAV的皇冠明珠是通过Replicator计划部署的Switchblade无人机。 所以我个人今天抄底买入。
英文原文
I’ve added to my $AVAV positions on the 16% dip. Markets made a mistake with regarding the Scar program news. - Markets thought SCAR program was canceled hence 15%+ selloff. - It’s not. In the 8-K regulatory filings they said they would “continue providing capabilities and products for the SCAR program.” - This was contract re-negotiation. Not cancelled. Also this was a small $175m fw revenue contract. $AVAV crown jewel is Switchblade via Replicator So I personally ended up buying the dip today.
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建议逢低买入AVAV，认为市场对其合同重谈的恐慌被夸大。
@__visionxry__ 恕我直言，$AVAV 在下跌 15% 后是极佳的逢低买入机会。其主要收入来自价值超 10 亿美元的“弹簧刀”复制器（Switchblade Replicator）项目。如果市场因一份正在重新谈判的 1.75 亿美元合同而恐慌，那纯粹是在戏弄投资者。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ IMO $AVAV is a great dip buy on the 15% drop. Main revenue is $1B+ switchblade replicator. Markets are trolling if they’re panicking over a $175m contract that’s getting renegotiated.
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作者因SSYS看错，转向寻找与Optimus产量强相关的VPG机会。
我在 $SSYS 关于原型机/量产爬坡的论点上搞砸了，所以我想要一个与机器人产量直接挂钩、且每台机器人能贡献高比例营收的机器人概念股。 这属于推测，但考虑到 $VPG 的体量，特斯拉 Optimus 每台机器人中约 3-8% 的 BOM（物料清单）价值对他们来说是不可思议的。
英文原文
I messed up on my $SSYS thesis regarding prototyping/ramp-up, so I wanted a robotics play directly tethered to the amount of robots produced with high % revenue for each robot. This is speculation but an est. 3-8% ~BOM value for each Tesla Optimus is incredible for $VPG given how small they are.
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VPG被低估机器人拐点，营收增长潜力大，机构或仅时机过早。
许多人基于同比(Y/Y)营收对 $VPG 进行建模，但低估了机器人领域的拐点。从当前水平实现25亿至40亿美元的营收增长，提供了相当高的上行空间和极佳的机器人领域增长敞口。但这只股票已被机构广泛熟知，我认为Citron Research等机构可能只是时机把握有误，因为他们提前了数月甚至数年。
英文原文
A lot of people model $VPG based on Y/Y revenue, but underestimate inflection point for robotics. $2.5-$4B revenue ramp from current levels presents pretty high upside and great exposure to robotics ramp. But it's already a pretty well known stock by institutions, I think Citron and others likely just got timing off since they were months or years ahead of time.
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作者解释为何逆势做多VPG以提前布局机器人领域。
@alecolace 如果你对 $VPG 持看跌观点，那确实合理！无人机领域确实比机器人领域有更多的催化剂，但我个人想通过 $VPG 提前布局机器人领域的增长。再次强调，这只是我个人的观点，我不指望很多人会同意。
英文原文
@alecolace That's fair if you're bearish on $VPG! Drone sector has a lot more catalysts than robotics for sure, but thought I'd personally frontrun the robotics ramp with $VPG. Again these are just my own personal opinions, I don't expect a lot of people to agree.
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建仓$VPG，看好其作为$TSLA Optimus核心供应商的高BOM占比及不对称收益。
我已建立 $VPG（市值5.73亿美元）的头寸。 这是我未来在机器人领域的主要敞口，与 $TSLA Optimus 紧密挂钩。 市场完全忽视了这一机器人板块的投资机会： 对于每一台部署的特斯拉 Optimus，$VPG 很可能占据极高的物料清单(BOM)份额。 VPG 可能是特斯拉 Optimus 量产爬坡的主要供应商，这已是公开的秘密。 这一发现最早由 Citron Research 提出（我不居功）。 2025年4月，Citron Research 发布报告，称 VPG 为“隐藏的特斯拉 Optimus 概念股”。 他们指出，VPG 在2023年11月宣布与一家人形机器人开发商达成“重大设计胜利”，就在特斯拉于2023年12月发布 Optimus Gen 2 之前。 Citron：“证据确凿：VPG 不仅向特斯拉 Optimus 供货，还预计从此次扩产中获得巨额收入，但由于保密协议，这部分收入目前对市场不可见。” 我在2025/2026年后期与多家卖方/买方分析师交叉验证了关于 VPG 的信息： 许多来自 Signia Capital 的人士提到 $VPG：“最显著的应用将是特斯拉的 Optimus 机器人，该机器人于2022年原型化，目标在2026年投产”。 然而，由于2023-2025年原型机阶段 Optimus 及其他机器人的量产爬坡并不存在，这一点被完全遗忘了。 然而，鉴于彭博社报道 OpenAI 上周推动机器人领域发展： 我预计机器人行业今年将触及拐点。 该公司基本面已经非常扎实： - 营收7970万美元（同比增长5.3%，但预计因机器人行业而指数级增长） - 毛利率40.5% - 净现金约6500万美元（现金8600万，债务2000万） $VPG 在块状金属箔(Bulk Metal Foil)材料科学/专利方面拥有护城河，引入了 Z-Foil 技术，并实现了垂直整合。虽然我不能说完全理解所有细节，但这正是 $TSLA 与 Vishay 合作进行 Optimus 迭代原型开发和规模化的原因。 关于 BOM： 有一些 BOM 估算如下： 腿部/运动系统：约21,300美元（占成本38%）：集中在高扭矩执行器。 核心稳定性：约15,600美元（28%）：结构性躯干和肩部机构。 灵巧手：约9,500美元（17%）：执行器和 VPG 式传感器。 计算/AI：约2,100美元（4%）：双 FSD 芯片和8摄像头阵列。 但总体而言，我们可以估算每台机器人的价值中约有3-8%归 $VPG 所有，因为 Shoshani 明确表示 VPG 预计每台机器人在ERs中能获得500至1,200美元的收入。 Elon 喜欢吹嘘大数字，但如果按字面意思理解“德州超级工厂年产1000万台的目标” 1000万台机器人/年 × 750美元/台 = VPG 年营收75亿美元。 考虑到 $VPG 是一家目前处于机器人供应链深处的5.74亿美元小市值公司，鉴于其不对称的上行空间，我建立了多头头寸： - 与 $TSLA Optimus 供应链的高度相关性概率高 - 每台部署机器人的 BOM 占比高 - 资产负债表非常干净，这很罕见。 请自行研究，这只是我建立多头的个人思考过程。
英文原文
I've initiated positions in $VPG ($573m). This is my actual/main robotics sector exposure going forward, tethered to $TSLA Optimus. Markets have completely overlooked this robotics sector play: For every Tesla Optimus deployed, $VPG likely takes an exceptionally high BOM for each. It's a pretty open secret by now that VPG is likely a main supplier for Tesla Optimus Ramp. This was first discovered by Citron Research (not taking credit for this). In April 2025, Citron Research published a report calling VPG the "Hidden Tesla Optimus Play." They pointed out that VPG announced a "major design win" with a humanoid developer in November 2023, right before Tesla revealed the Optimus Gen 2 in December 2023. Citron: "The evidence is conclusive: VPG is not only supplying Tesla Optimus but expects substantial revenues from this ramp-up, revenue currently invisible to the market due to confidentiality" I've cross-checked with recent Sellside/Buyside analysts much later in 2025/2026 regarding VPG: Many from Signia Capital mention for $VPG: "The most notable application would be Tesla’s Optimus robot, which was prototyped in 2022 and is targeting production in 2026". However, this was completely forgotten given robotics ramp from Optimus and others were nonexistent through 2023-2025 for the prototyping phase. However, given OpenAI's push to robotics last week per Bloomberg: I expect robotics to hit the inflection point this year. This company is extremely solid fundamentally already: - $79.7 Million Revenue (up 5.3% Y/Y but this should ramp up exponentially due to robotics sector) - 40.5% Gross Margins - ~$65 Million Net Cash ($86m Cash, $20m Debt) $VPG has a material science/patent moat for Bulk Metal Foil, introduced Z-Foil technology, and is vertically integrated. Can't say I understand it all, but it's the reason why $TSLA has been prototyping and scaling their Optimus iterations with Vishay. As for BOM: There are BOM estimates like: Legs/Locomotion: ~$21,300 (38% of cost): concentrated in high-torque actuators. Core Stability: ~$15,600 (28%): structural torso and shoulder mechanisms. Dexterous Hands: ~$9,500 (17%): Actuators and VPG-style sensors. Compute/AI: ~$2,100 (4%): Dual FSD chips and 8-camera array. But generally, we can estimate 3-8% of each robots value is est. $VPG since Shoshani explicitly stated that VPG expects to capture between $500 and $1,200 in revenue per robot in ERs. Elon likes to claim big numbers, but if you take it at face value "10-million-unit annual target at Giga Texas" 10M robots/year × $750/robot = $7.5 Billion in annual revenue for VPG. Considering $VPG is a small $574M company deep in the robotics supply chain right now, I entered long positions given the asymmetrical upside - of high probability correlation to $TSLA Optimus supply chains - high BOM of each robot deployed. - very clean balance sheet, which is rare. Please do your own research, this is my own personal thought process of why I entered this long.
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警告$DPRO风险极高，强调仓位管理，属投机性押注。
@Aldo_Aurelius 鉴于 $DPRO 营收极低，其风险极高。因此，如果你决定自行建仓，仓位管理(position sizing)至关重要。这绝对不适合所有人，因为它本质上是对无人机产能带来的收入确认(revenue recognition)的一次投机性押注。
英文原文
@Aldo_Aurelius $DPRO is incredibly risky given low revenue. So position sizing is important if you decide yourself you want to take positions. It’s definitely not for everyone as a speculative bet on drone revenue recognition from capacity
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认为FIG只需降低杂项费用即可改善毛利率表现。
@ShortsHoward @charlieliner 毛利率方面。他们只需要降低杂项费用，$FIG 的财报就会很好看。
英文原文
@ShortsHoward @charlieliner Gross margins though. They just need to lower misc expenses and $FIG prints
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博主表示持有AXTI以应对其20%的随机波动，避免频繁交易。
@jliljliljlil $AXTI 随机上下波动 20%，我只是持有它，而不是试图进行波段交易。
英文原文
@jliljliljlil $AXTI moves up and down randomly 20%, I just hold it instead of trying to trade it.
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Figma财务强劲且AI难替代，认为股价超卖。
@ShortsHoward @charlieliner 是的，$10亿 2025财年营收，91%的毛利率（高得离谱），40%的同比增长，$16亿现金且无债务。 看起来超卖了，像Opus这样的AI并不会取代Figma。
英文原文
@ShortsHoward @charlieliner Yeah $1B FY 2025 revenue, 91% gross margins (unholy) 40% y/y growth, $1.6B cash no debt. Seems oversold, AI like Opus doesn’t replace figma.
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对比RKLB与DPRO的政府资金优势，提示早期风险并看好无人机基建。
好问题！这有点像 $RKLB 虽然来自新西兰，但受益于美国国防部(DoD)的资金支持。 $DPRO 同时受益于加拿大和美国的资金支持，因为它符合《国防授权法》(NDAA)的规定。 再次强调，由于处于早期阶段，存在大量风险，不要指望未来财报发布前会有太多利好被计入股价。我只是认为他们的无人机基础设施(Drone Infra)建设具有潜力。
英文原文
Good question! It’s kinda like $RKLB is from New Zealand but benefits from US DoD funding. $DPRO gets benefits from both Canada and US funding as its ndaa compliant Again there are tons of risks since its early stage and don’t expect much to be priced in until their future earnings. I just thought their drone infra buildout had potential
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DPRO作为稀缺上市CAD无人机公司，从某观点中受益。
@digestive_bisc 错过了那个巨大的观点，谢谢。$DPRO 作为少数几家上市的计算机辅助设计(CAD)无人机公司之一，从中受益良多。
英文原文
@digestive_bisc Missed out on that huge point thanks. $DPRO benefits a lot from that as one of the only public CAD drone companies.
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澄清估值指标，分享对PDYN及DPRO作为分包商被算法低估的看法。
承接上文，我想说的是企业价值/收入(EV/Revenue)比率，而非上面的市销率(P/S)。不过我之前也研究过 $PDYN，这是一家有趣的公司。另外，关于 $DPRO 的帖子并没有太多新内容，因为它在 Finx 上已经很流行了。关键在于其基础设施布局+大规模产能爬坡+作为分包商(subcontractor)缺乏亮眼合同这一复杂情况，这往往能触发季度财报(Q reports)中算法可能未定价的因素。很多人忽略了这一点，所以我想分享自己的看法。
英文原文
Pigybacking off of this, meant to say ev/revenue not p/s above. But yeah I looked at $PDYN before too, interesting company. Also there's nothing too new with the $DPRO post since it's already popular on finx. It's just really nuanced with the infrastructure setup + large capacity ramp + no flashy contracts since it's a subcontractor -> hits Q reports that algos might not price in. A lot of people missed that aspect, so just wanted to post my own thoughts about it.
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建仓$DPRO，视其为无人机战争基础设施，类比早期$RKLB，具高增长潜力。
我建仓了少量 $DPRO（市值2.4亿美元）。 这是一家端到端的战争无人机承包商，Draganfly 看起来像是无人机领域的 $RKLB（Relativity Space）。 $ONDS 从 0.51 美元涨到 15 美元（13倍），我一直在寻找类似的标的。 以下是市场（和我自己）之前忽略的点： Draganfly 是一家垂直整合的国防主承包商，而不仅仅是无人机制造商。 $DPRO 控制着从工厂基础设施到最终无人机的整个生态系统。它是《国防授权法案》（NDAA）禁止大疆（DJI，曾占据估计 70-80% 市场份额）后的最大受益者。 我之前没理解的最大护城河：嵌入式生产（embedded production）。 我关注的是当前较小的营收数字，却忽略了他们正在美国多个基地建设分布式制造能力。 Draganfly 与美国陆军（2025年9月）的合同不仅仅是交付无人机；而是要在美国基地安装微型工厂（Micro-Factories）。 它将 Draganfly 融入美国战争部（Dept. of War）的体系中，创造出竞争对手无法取代的“粘性”。 我建仓的原因是：他们的无人机产能从 2025 年的 500 万美元跃升至 4 亿美元。 结合其与 Global Ordnance 的合作伙伴关系（作为分包商，Ordnance 获得了 7.5 亿美元 IDIQ 合同），以及 US-CAD 项目（双方均受益，如 2.2 亿美元对北约的 CAD 资金）。 $DPRO 有可能实现三位数甚至 1000%+ 的同比增长率。 而且……营收会在财报中以惊喜的方式体现在资产负债表上。 每个无人机玩家如 $AVAV、$AIRO、$ONDS 都有自己的专长，$DPRO 专注于非动能和基础设施方面： -> 瑞典等欧洲国家（2026年）使用 $DPRO 无人机进行救生行动。 -> DEF-C -> 乌克兰冲突中的侦察无人机 -> Global Ordnance（大型国防承包商） -> 美国战争部（美国陆军） 而这些非动能无人机可以转化为动能应用。 手握 5100 万美元现金（健康的资产负债表），仅 20% 的产能爬坡就对应约 2.2 倍远期市销率（p/s）。 这是一个非常投机的风险投资式押注，因为他们正在快速扩张基础设施（就像早期的 $RKLB），Northland 给出了 20 美元的目标价。 这是一种直觉，认为营收将赶上他们在美军中部署的基础设施（特别是 Replicator 项目，且直到财报发布前都是隐藏的）。 $DPRO 在 FinX 上已经很受欢迎（说服其他用户花了一些功夫），所以我个人也加入了这场狂欢，想看看它会走向何方。 TLDR：在 $DPRO 建立少量投机性头寸，因为它有望成为无人机战争的基础设施（就像 2 美元时的 $RKLB 之于太空），具有巨大的上行潜力。 由于处于极早期阶段，随着产能建设的收入确认，也存在大量风险。
英文原文
I’ve initiated small positions in $DPRO ($240m). This is an end-to-end war drone contractor and Draganfly looks like the $RKLB to Ondas. $ONDS went from ($.51 -> $15, 13x) and was looking for an equivalent. Here’s what markets (and myself missed). Draganfly is a vertically integrated defense prime, not just a drone maker. $DPRO controls the entire ecosystem, from the factory infrastructure to the end-drone. And it’s the largest beneficiary of NDAA that banned DJI, which controlled est. 70-80% of market share. The biggest moat I didn’t understand earlier: embedded production. I looked small current revenue numbers but missed the that they’re buildout distributed manufacturing throughout many US bases. Draganfly’s contract with the U.S. Army (Sept 2025) isn't just to ship drones; it is to install Micro-Factories at US bases. It integrates Draganfly into the fabric of US Dpt. of War, creating a layer of "stickiness" that is impossible for competitors to displace. Here's why I entered positions: they went from $5M drone capacity ramp in 2025 to $400m. Combining this with its partnership with Global Ordnance (where it’s a sub-contractor and Ordnance received $750 Million IDIQ), US-CAD programs (benefits from both) like $220m CAD funding to NATO. It’s possible for $DPRO from triple digits or possibly 1000%+ revenue growth rates Y/Y. And... revenue hits balance sheet by surprise in the earnings. Each drone player from $AVAV, $AIRO, $ONDS, have their own specialty, $DPRO focuses on the nonkinetic and infrastructure aspect: -> European countries like Sweden use $DPRO drones (2026) for life-saving operations. -> DEF-C -> reconnaissance drones for Ukraine conflict -> Global Ordnance (massive defense contractor) -> U.S. Department of War (US Army) and those nonkinetic drones can be transformed with kinetic applications. With $51M cash on hand (healthy balance sheet), just 20% of capacity ramp would be ~2.2 fwd p/s. This is a very speculative venture style bet as they've been rapidly expanding infrastructure (like $RKLB at the start), with Northland giving $20 PT's. And this is a hunch that the revenue will catch up to the infrastructure they've deployed across the US army (esp. with Replicator programs and is hidden until earnings). $DPRO has already been popular on FinX (and it took some convincing from other users) so I've personally joined the party as I'm curious to see where it heads. TLDR: took small speculative positions in $DPRO as it's setup to be the Infrastructure of Drone Warfare (like $RKLB back at $2 for space) with high potential upside. As it's extremely early, there's lot of risks as well with revenue recognition from capacity buildout.
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LPTH因美欧冲突受益，提供美国本土黑钻替代方案，当前下跌属无差别抛售。
$LPTH 实际上是美欧冲突导致供应链中断的主要受益者之一，因为美国从德国和比利时进口大量锗(Germanium)。Lightpath 提供了瓶颈环节的替代方案，其黑钻(Black Diamond)产品 100% 在美国制造（前体也主要来自美国）。这很可能只是一次广泛的无差别抛售。
英文原文
$LPTH is actually one of the big benefiaries of conflicts between US and EU for supply chain disruption as US imports significant amount of germanium from Germany and Belgium. And Lightpath offers the bottleneck alternative with black diamond manufactured 100% in US (precursors mainly US too) This is probably just a wide indiscriminate selloff.
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博主坦言难以抗拒将仓位全仓转入Meta的诱惑。
@CB3409 我确实睡觉，但当我想把仓位全部转入 $META 的诱惑袭来时，这很难做到。
英文原文
@CB3409 I do sleep, but it’s hard to when I get the temptation to just full port it into $META
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博主分享国防及半导体个股观点，计划加仓DPRO和SKYT。
@WaltzDisneyz @itachidata28 我之前发过关于 1) 供应链 2) 国防 3) 美国本土制造半导体 的帖子。但个人而言，$OSS 用于国防，$LPTH 因为那家伙特定跌了 5% 简直太蠢了。正打算加仓 $DPRO 和 $SKYT，因为它们都跌了 4-6%+。
英文原文
@WaltzDisneyz @itachidata28 I made a post about it earlier regarding 1) supply chains 2) defense 3) made in America semis But personally $OSS for defense, $LPTH since that one dropping 5% in specific just stupid. Was looking to scale up $DPRO and $SKYT since they’re both down 4-6%+
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分析AVAV、AIRO、DPRO在美军复制者计划中的角色及风险收益特征。
$AVAV 绝对是的。它是黄金标准，并且已经是“复制者”(Replicator) 计划的一部分。（因此与 $KTOS 一起已经取得了成功） $AIRO 用于反无人机“复制者”(Replicator)，具有最高的上行潜力和最低的下行风险。 我稍后会写一篇关于 $DPRO 的文章，但它让我想起了早期阶段的 $RKLB，上行空间非常具有投机性。
英文原文
$AVAV definitely. It’s the gold standard and is already part of replicator. (So already successful alongside $KTOS) $AIRO is for counter UAV replicator, highest potential for lowest downside risk. I’ll do a write up on $DPRO later but it reminds me of early stage $RKLB, very speculative upside.
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ONDS估值虽高，但作为独立标的仍具合理性。
@platochi @bennybigbull 与其他无人机公司如 $AIRO 相比，$ONDS 的估值（市销率）显得昂贵（28倍 vs 2.5倍）。我想表达的是，单看它本身，这是一个合理的选股标的。
英文原文
@platochi @bennybigbull $ONDS is richly priced compared to other drone companies like $AIRO (28 vs 2.5 p/s) Standalone it’s a justified pick, is what I’m trying to say.
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作者认为$ONDS估值过高，建议关注其他估值更低的无人机股。
个人而言，我觉得与其他无人机公司相比，$ONDS 的定价偏高。 我持有 $AVAV、$DPRO、$KTOS 和 $AIRO 以获取无人机领域的敞口。 （这只是我凭记忆随口一说，别太当真）Ondas 目前的前瞻性企业价值/收入倍数（Forward EV/revenue multiples）约为 28 倍以上。即使是 AVAV，作为“复制者”（Replicator）项目的一部分，其倍数也仅为 8-9 倍。 Airo 则是针对“复制者 2.0”的反无人机（Counter UAV）系统。 当我买入 $AIRO 时，其前瞻性市销率（Forward P/S）约为 2.5 倍（现在可能更高，也许是 3-4 倍）。 甚至 $DPRO 根据一些收入计算，可能也只有 2.8 倍左右。 所以在我看来，其他无人机公司有更高的上行空间。
英文原文
Personally speaking, I feel like $ONDS is richly priced compared to other drone companies. I have $AVAV, $DPRO, $KTOS, and $AIRO for drone exposure. (Just going off the top of my head, dont take this too literally) Fwd EV/revenue multiples was ~28s+ now for Ondas. Even AVAV was 8-9 and they were in the replicator program. Airo was for counter UAV for replicator 2. When I bought $AIRO was trading at ~2.5 fwd p/s (probably higher now, maybe 3-4's). Even $DPRO might even be potential 2.8 from some rev calculations. So IMO higher upside with other drone companies.
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建议买入错杀标的而非传统对冲，并认可CRML的稀土受益逻辑。
我想指出一些超额收益机会：买入因错误原因下跌8%的标的（例如用于国防的美国无人机），而非像 $GLD / $SLV 这样的已知对冲工具。不过，如果讨论受益者，你提到的 $CRML 很棒，因为 Tanbreez 及其稀土矿藏。
英文原文
I just wanted to point out some alpha regarding buying into things down 8% for the wrong reason (eg. US drones for defense) rather than known hedges like $GLD / $SLV. But yes, if we talked about beneficiaries, your mentions like $CRML, bc of Tanbreez and all its rare earth deposits are great!
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格陵兰关税引发恐慌，建议逢低买入美国防、关键材料及本土半导体股。
美股期货因格陵兰关税新闻下跌。 许多欧洲股市热门股现下跌： $ONDS (-8.55%) 或 $RKLB (-7.65%)。 以下是如何从该局势中潜在获利的方法： 第一层：供应链 这是与北约盟友的争端。这威胁到供应链。 许多美国国防系统依赖欧洲组件（德国光学器件、英国/荷兰芯片）。格陵兰是稀土元素(REEs)的巨大潜在来源。 格陵兰受阻意味着美国必须依赖国内来源。 与欧洲的贸易战给国防承包商和其他部门带来混乱。 如果下跌，美国关键材料供应商如 $MP 或瓶颈对冲如 $LPTH 将是良好的逢低买入机会。 第二层：美国直接冲突/战争 战争板块如 ($AVAV 或 $KTOS) 实际上极具韧性，因为从根本上说，争端涉及美国国家安全。 欧洲（莱茵金属、萨博）国防股正在反弹，而美国（如 $ONDS）遭抛售。美国代码被恐惧的欧洲散户投资者错误定价。 国防股可能在“避险”恐慌初期下跌，但它们实际上最终成为与北约盟友紧张关系的主要受益者。（特朗普的事你无法预知）。 如果隔夜或盘前出现大幅下跌，如果发生无差别抛售，这可能是一个良好的买入机会。 第三层：美国半导体供应链/晶圆厂 与欧洲（特别是荷兰/ASML 和德国/蔡司）的贸易战严重损害半导体供应链。 在所有这些痛苦中，垂直整合的“美国制造”硬件公司将受益最大。 如果下跌，像 $COHR、$AMKR 或美国晶圆厂如 $INTC、$GFS 这样的公司可能是良好的逢低买入机会。 这更微妙，因为市场认为它们仍然有风险，因为许多“国内”玩家仍依赖欧洲进口（ASML 光刻、蔡司光学）来运营。 然而，这是关于供应链主权的美国国家安全，这是对美国政府不会让这些公司失败（例如英特尔的国家安全豁免）的美国政策的非对称性赌注。 可能避免： 科技/SaaS 的接飞刀，因为它们被视为“风险资产”，通常被抛售最多，除非情况极端。 _ 鉴于流动性低，欧洲市场可能正在恐慌性抛售至真空。 套利机器人可能会迫使美国隔夜价格下跌以匹配欧洲/期货的“隐含价格”。 然而，如果实际受益于该局势的板块出现跳空低开，这可能是极好的机会。 方向上，市场可能会看跌。 但预计许多这些 -7% 或 -9% 的数字将恢复到合理水平如 -1.5%，有些甚至翻正。
英文原文
US Futures are down due to Greenland Tariff news. Many popular names on EU stock exchanges are now down: $ONDS (-8.55%) or $RKLB (-7.65%). Here's how to potentially profit off the situation: Tier 1: Supply Chains This is a dispute with NATO Allies. This threatens supply chains. Many US defense systems rely on European components (optics from Germany, chips from UK/Netherlands). Greenland is a massive potential source of Rare Earth Elements (REEs). The blockage of Greenland means the US must rely on domestic sources. A trade war with Europe creates chaos for defense contractors and other sectors. US Critical Material providers like $MP or bottleneck hedges like $LPTH would be a good dip buying opportunity if they drop. Tier 2: US Direct Conflict/War War sectors like ( $AVAV or $KTOS ) are actually extremely resilient since fundamentally, the dispute goes back to US National Security. EU (Rheinmetall, SAAB) defense stocks are rallying, while US ( eg. $ONDS ) got sold off. US tickers are being mispriced by fearful European retail investors. Defense stocks might drop initially during "risk-off" panic but they actually end up being the primary beneficiaries of the tension with NATO allies. (you never know with Trump). Any large drops (if they happen) overnight or pre-market, this might be a good buying opportunity if there's an indiscriminate selloff. Tier 3: US Semi Supply Chains/Foundry A trade war with Europe (specifically the Netherlands/ASML and Germany/Zeiss) hurts the semiconductor supply chain immensely. Through all this pain, the vertically integrated "Made in America" hardware companies would benefit the most. Companies like $COHR, $AMKR, or US foundries like $INTC, $GFS might be a good dip buy if they drop. This is more nuanced since markets think they're still risky because a lot of the "domestic" players still rely on European imports (ASML lithography, Zeiss optics) to operate. However, this is US national security for supply chain sovereignty and this is an asymmetrical bet on US policy that they won't let these companies fail (eg. National Security Exemptions for Intel). Probably avoid: Falling knives on Tech/SaaS since they're considered "risk assets" and usually get sold off the most, unless it goes extreme. _ European markets are likely panic-selling into a void, given low liquidity. The arbitrage bots might force US overnight prices down to match the "implied prices" of European/Futures. However, this might be the excellent opportunity if there's a gap-down on names on sectors that actually benefit from the situation. Directionality, markets are likely going to see red. But expect many of these -7% or -9% numbers to recover to reasonable levels like -1.5%, with some flipping positive.
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POET虽受散户追捧，但被视为未来互连瓶颈的替代方案。
@train9898 $POET 不幸的是，它是 WSB/X 上散户最喜爱的十大股票之一，所以并不算是低调。但它们是未来 1-2 年内解决互连瓶颈(interconnect bottleneck)的替代方案之一。
英文原文
@train9898 $POET unfortunately is retail’s top 10 favorite stocks on WSB/X so not exactly under the radar. But they’re one of the workarounds to inp in 1-2 years time
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看好格陵兰局势利好国防及稀土，认为对AI交易仅为噪音。
我是一个看好格陵兰贸易紧张局势的看多者。 美国国防股如 $UAVS 和 $DPRO 可能会受益。稀土/关键材料也是如此。 但无法对 $NVO 的制药看多者、欧洲奢侈品如 $LVMH，或者可能的大科技股说同样的话。 正如你提到的，我同意这对 AI 交易来说只是噪音。
英文原文
I'm a bull that's excited about Greenland trade tensions. US defense like $UAVS and $DPRO are likely to benefit. Same with rare earth/critical materials. Can't say the same about the pharma bulls in $NVO, European luxury like $LVMH, or possibly big tech. As you mentioned, I agree it's just noise to the AI trade.
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澄清LEU指HALEU，指出Centrus是美国唯一获此许可的公司。
@hrtflutter 哎呀，$LEU 指的是 HALEU（高丰度低浓缩铀）。Centrus Energy 目前是美国唯一一家拥有将铀浓缩至 HALEU 水平许可证的公司。
英文原文
@hrtflutter Whoops, $LEU for HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium). Centrus Energy is currently the only company in the U.S. with a license to enrich uranium to HALEU levels.
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警告勿盲目买入PLSR，因氦3分离技术未成熟且成本不明。
特朗普的关税政策对我来说是个谜。 另外提醒一下那些认为应该无脑冲入 $PLSR 的人： - 没人知道储层中氦-3（Helium-3）的储量 - 从氦-4（Helium-4）中分离氦-3 的成本可能高得离谱（没人知道成本结构），甚至可能根本不值得尝试 他们实际上说过“目前不存在大规模分离氦-3 和氦-4 的商业技术”。 这就好比从海水中分离盐分来制造纯净水并出售。 因此，尽管坐拥潜在的金矿，其市值仍仅为 1.4 亿美元（如果他们真的尝试，预计会有大量稀释）。
英文原文
Trump's tariff policies are an engima to me. Also just a heads up for people who think they should ape into $PLSR - Nobody knows the volume of helium-3 in the reservoir - separating helium-3 from helium-4 might be insanely expensive (nobody knows cost structure) and it might be worthless to attempt They've actually said "no commercial technology currently exists to separate He-3 from He-4 at scale" For example separating salt from the ocean to make purified water and selling that. Hence why it's still $140m MC despite sitting on a potential gold mine (and if they do attempt it expect a TON of dilution).