业绩复盘
收益回顾、持仓表现、对错总结 · 共 459 条 · 第 8 / 10 页
-
博主今日大幅加仓加密货币相关ETF及个股，试图抄底。
我今天最终将大量仓位轮动到了正在下落的加密货币“飞刀”上。 只是感觉从 $COIN 到 $SOL 的所有东西最近都跌得有点太多了。 - 比特币 $82.9k 通过 IBIT ($46.9) - Solana ($114.8) 通过 $SOLZ - Litecoin ($64.2) 通过 $LTCC - $COIN ($197) 希望我抄底抄对了时机。
英文原文
I ended up rotating a lot of my positions into the falling knife on crypto today. Just felt like everything has recent from $COIN to $SOL has crashed a bit much - Bitcoin $82.9k via IBIT ($46.9) - Solana ($114.8) via $SOLZ - Litecoin ($64.2) via $LTCC - $COIN ($197) Hope I timed the bottom correctly
-
持有SNDK和南亚科，涨幅超1000%。
@HelixCapital_ 可能是 SanDisk，但我没有明确倾向。我目前同时持有 $SNDK 和南亚科(Nanya)（在财报后买入 SanDisk，并将铠侠(Kioxia)作为 SanDisk 的代理标的)。它们自去年以来都上涨了 1000%+，所以很难抱怨。
英文原文
@HelixCapital_ Probably Sandisk but no firm opinion, I own both $SNDK and Nanya right now (ended up buying Sandisk after ER, but have Kioxia as Sandisk proxy) They’re both up 1000%+ since last year so hard to complain.
-
作者回顾去年$META期权展期亏损，称当前收益已弥补。
@MD_Gamification 是的，只要最终盈利就行！去年我在$META上亏了不少，因为我不得不将看涨期权(Options Calls)展期到更晚的日期。我的平均成本最终约为$640。但这笔交易弥补了损失。
英文原文
@MD_Gamification Yep, as long as you profit in the end! I ended up losing a lot on $META last year when I had to rotate calls to a later date. My cost avg ended up being around $640 But this made up for it.
-
INTC财报重创持仓，但已对冲，下周拟利用波动率下降寻找机会。
@platochi 哭吧，$INTC 的财报评论摧毁了我半导体投资组合的其余部分。说笑归说笑，下周可能会寻找机会，因为做市商(MMs)正在打压隐含波动率(IV)，人们开始恐慌性抛售他们的虚值看涨期权(OTM calls)。幸运的是，我在财报前对冲了大量头寸。
英文原文
@platochi Cry as $INTC ER comments nukes the rest of my semi portfolio. Jokes aside probably looking for opportunities next week as MMs crush IV + people start panic selling their OTM calls. Luckily I hedged a ton for earnings
-
反思未在META跌至603美元时加大买入力度。
@pepemoonboy 我本应在 $META 跌至 603 美元时更多地通过成本平均法(Cost Averaging)买入。 https://t.co/6LEijFygpy
英文原文
@pepemoonboy I should have cost averaged $META more on the drop to $603. https://t.co/6LEijFygpy
-
博主澄清持仓策略：长线逻辑持股一年，短线如CRDO灵活交易。
@realstockfox 我目前实际上持有33个不同的头寸。如果你看过我的月度更新，我会追踪大量股票。但对于基于投资逻辑（Thesis）的帖子，我通常持有长达一年，因为它们是长线头寸。像 $CRDO 这类则是短期交易。
英文原文
@realstockfox I actually have 33 different positions right now. If you see my monthly updates, I track A TON of stocks. But with the thesis-type posts, I usually hold for a year since they're long positions. Stuff like $CRDO were short term. https://t.co/QxAketGwML
-
博主回应批评改在盘中发文，并展示其过往论点均获正收益。
感谢大家的指正。很多人私信我，认为在盘后或隔夜发布投资论点(Thesis)会因流动性不足而加剧市场波动。因此，我改为在交易时段发布我的思考过程。我无法控制市场如何为信息发现定价，也无法控制我分享观点后的影响。自发布以来，$AIRO、$AXTI、$OSS 等大多数股票上涨了 70% 且仍在上涨。像 $VLH 或 $LPTH 这样的股票也上涨了约 20-30%。我认为到目前为止，还没有任何一个论点在长期来看是亏损的。
英文原文
Thanks for calling me out on that. A lot of people messaged me privately that posting a thesis during after-hours/overnight would make things a lot worse due to lack of liquidity. So I end up posting my thought process during market hours instead. I have no control over how markets price in information discovery or me sharing my perspective on things. Most stocks from $AIRO, $AXTI, $OSS are up 70% since I posted and still keep going up. Stuff like $VLH or $LPTH are up roughly 20-30%. I don't think there's been a single thesis that's been red over time so far.
-
分享短线交易获利及新建仓的持仓操作
@charlieliner 太棒了！像 $LPTH 这样的标的从 -5% 反弹至 +7%，这 6 小时的买入操作利润丰厚。 我自己也建仓了 $FIG，并定投(DCA)了 $META（尽管我原本告诉自己不会买软件类股票）。 好奇看看结果如何 https://t.co/FHRRQrj0Ub
英文原文
@charlieliner Nice! Going from -5% to +7% on some of these names like $LPTH was extremely profitable 6 hour buy. I ended up initiating $FIG positions myself and DCA $META (even though I told myself I wouldn’t buy software stuff). Curious to see how that turns out https://t.co/FHRRQrj0Ub
-
博主坚持投资论点，对多只AI供应链股进行长期持有与加仓。
@truncateit 我确实相信我的投资论点，所以我会对像 $AIRO 和 $LPTH 这样的标的进行成本平均加仓。但如果你好奇的话，是的，我仍然持有 $OSS、$AIRO、$LPTH、$SSYS、$AXTI、$VLN 以及其他我做过尽职调查(DD)的股票，因为它们旨在作为1年期的持仓，而不是12小时的短线交易。https://t.co/uNvk2q5uYe
英文原文
@truncateit I actually believe in my thesis so I cost average up on stuff like $AIRO and $LPTH. But if you're curious yes I still have $OSS, $AIRO, $LPTH, $SSYS, $AXTI, $VLN, and others I do DD on since they're meant to be 1 year holds, not 12 hour ones. https://t.co/uNvk2q5uYe
-
列举近期持仓标的，表示将持有头寸一年以等待价值重估。
是的？最近发布的帖子包括：用于无人机的 $AIRO、用于边缘计算的 $OSS、用于机器人的 $SSYS、用于人工智能(AI)瓶颈的 $AXTI、用于国防瓶颈的 $LPTH 以及存在定价偏差的 $VLN。自重新评级(re-rating)不会在一两天或一两周内发生，可能需要数月才能显现，因此我将持有我的头寸一年。
英文原文
Yes? $AIRO for drones, $OSS for edge, $SSYS for robotics, $AXTI for AI bottlenecks, $LPTH for defense bottlenecks and $VLN for mispricing were the most recent posts. I’m holding my share positions for a year since re-rating doesn’t happen in a day or week. Might take months to play out.
-
博主分享今日逢低买入LPTH、AIRO和VLN的操作。
@MRonvelwala 我个人在今天 $LPTH 和 $AIRO 下跌 4% 时买入，并在 $VLN 下跌 8% 时买入。 看起来 SPY 下跌了 0.8%，因此由恐惧带来的良好机会很多。
英文原文
@MRonvelwala I personally bought $LPTH and $AIRO on 4% drop today and $VLN on the -8% drop. Looks like SPY is down -.8% so lot of good opportunities out there from fear.
-
博主分享近期选股大幅上涨，并征集5倍股研究标的。
一月份太疯狂了。 毫不夸张，我的许多选股在过去几天涨幅超过60%。 图表中甚至没有包含 $AXTI +60% 或 $VLN +60%。 更不用说像 $CRDO 25%+ 或 Intel 25%+ 这样较小的涨幅。 如果需要更多5倍股的研究标的，如果你有想法或投资论点，请告诉我。 https://t.co/VWO2l8yn87
英文原文
January is wild. Not even joking, many of my picks are up 60%+ over the past few days. Didn’t even include $AXTI +60% or $VLN +60% in the charts. While leaving out smaller rallies like $CRDO 25%+ or Intel 25%+. Need more 5x stocks for research if you have ideas or a thesis. https://t.co/VWO2l8yn87
-
澄清媒体误报 $VLN 涨幅，指出其实际涨幅与模型预测价不同。
@basedinwv 发现这对 $VLN 来说挺有趣的。不过新闻搞错了，因为它只涨了 58%，也许是将此与我建模预测 $7.00 的价格混淆了 https://t.co/FegV7lXxdi
英文原文
@basedinwv Found this amusing for $VLN. News got it wrong though since it’s only up 58%, maybe it conflates that with me modeling it for $7.00 https://t.co/FegV7lXxdi
-
回顾组合收益来源，反思仓位大小及交易策略。
谢谢！$OSS 和 $AXTI 是我投资组合中较小的部分。事后看来，我本应建立更大的头寸规模。我大部分的收益来自于利用投资组合保证金(portfolio margin)买入那些从去年高点下跌 50-70% 并在 1 月效应(Jan effect)中反弹的股票，如 $GLXY，以及像 $SOFI 或 $ASTS 这样仅下跌 10%+ 的交易性机会。除了可能 $CRDO 之外，我通常不发布我的做空(short trades)交易，而它从两天前已经上涨了超过 7%。
英文原文
Thanks! $OSS and $AXTI are smaller parts of my portfolio. I should have taken larger position sizes though in hindsight. Most of my gains came from portfolio margin into stocks that dropped 50-70% from last year into Jan effect like $GLXY, then just 10%+ trading drops like $SOFI or $ASTS. I don’t really post my short trades though aside from maybe $CRDO, which is up over 7% from two days ago
-
博主回应他人并分享自己年内投资表现良好。
@moninvestor 年内的表现真不错！我自己也做得相当不错 https://t.co/pWPsMiM2Rl
英文原文
@moninvestor Nice YTD! I’m doing pretty well myself https://t.co/pWPsMiM2Rl
-
澄清无前瞻指引，仅为旧合同及收入递延反应
@4drant 没有前瞻性指引。这纯粹是对一年前签订的合同以及一个季度收入递延的反应。
英文原文
@4drant There’s no forward guidance. This is solely a reaction to the contracts made a year ago with one quarter revenue deferral.
-
博主分享持仓 $AVAV 和 $UMAC，并解释发帖偏好。
@LibertadEterno 我一直在持有 $AVAV 和 $UMAC。不过并非每只股票都值得专门发帖，上面提到的那些是我的最爱。
英文原文
@LibertadEterno I’ve been riding $AVAV and $UMAC. Not every one deserves a post though, the ones above were my favorites.
-
作者对比了CRDO的抄底难度与SNDK/MU的持有策略，并提及AIRO反弹案例。
谢谢，不过 Credo 对我来说更多是个人交易标的。但当走势像“飞刀”时（$CRDO 上月以来下跌超 35%），真的很难抄底。相比之下，全仓转入 $SNDK 和 $MU 然后不动它要容易得多。像 $AIRO 这种看似“飞刀”的标的后来反弹了 48%，所以如果操作得当，抄底其实很赚钱。不过我们得看看我的解读是否正确，我很享受用市场来测试自己的理论。
英文原文
Thanks, Credo is personally more of a trade for me though. But it's really hard to time the bottoms when things look like a falling knife ( $CRDO down 35%+ since last month). Much easier to just full port it into $SNDK and $MU and just not touch it. Stuff like $AIRO looked like a falling knife too then recovered 48%, so bottom catching is quite profitable if done right. We'll see if my interpretation is correct though, I have a fun time testing my own theories against the markets.
-
复盘委内瑞拉政变后“国家重建”主题组合今日表现及个股反应。
比赛开始了。 “国家重建港口”组合今日表现： $GDRZF +95.83% $AVAV +14.7% $CVX +5.19% $ASHM +5.2% $HII +3.82% $TRGP -3.14% 令我惊讶的是，Gold Reserve $GDRZF 仅上涨 95%，考虑到其市值仍为 3.33 亿美元，而拥有约 81 亿美元的索赔权。 另一个惊喜是，Chevron $CVX 仅上涨 5%，鉴于消息显示他们作为最后的幸存者，基本上已经掌控了委内瑞拉。 $AVAV 表现优于预期，$HII 表现符合预期。$TRGP 的下跌令人意外。 我们将观察后续走势，因为这可能需要一些时间才能被市场充分定价（且并非所有人都了解这些标的）。
英文原文
And... We're off to the races. "Nation Building Port" Performance Today: $GDRZF +95.83% $AVAV +14.7% $CVX +5.19% $ASHM +5.2% $HII +3.82% $TRGP -3.14% I'm surprised Gold Reserve $GDRZF is only up 95%, given they're still a $333m MC with ~$8.1B in claims. Another surprise is that Chevron $CVX is only up 5% on the news that they basically own Venezuela's at this point as the last man standing. $AVAV performed better than expected, $HII performed on-par. $TRGP was a surprise on the drop. We'll see how this does later, as this probably takes some time to price in (and not everyone knows about these names).
-
PLTR和TSLA持仓减少，2026年转向ZETA等标的。
@bennybigbull $PLTR 和 $TSLA 在上一季度的出现频率降低，进入 2026 年后被 $ZETA 等公司取代。
英文原文
@bennybigbull $PLTR and $TSLA stopped showing up as much last quarter and got replaced by companies like $ZETA entering 2026.
-
FinX社区5天收益超Citadel全年，2025年大幅跑赢机构。
“FinX 对决华尔街”报告 这是 FinX 15，由最受欢迎的标的组成的加权组合： 1. $ONDS +33.26% 2. $SKYT +27.46% 3. $TE +22.62% 4. $MU +13.98% 5. $ASTS +13.24% 6. $BMNR +12.24% 7. $IREN +11.19% 8. $CIFR +8.64% 9. $AXTI +7.56% 10. $KRKNF + 7.69% 11. $NBIS +5.93% 12. $POET +5.81% 13. $RKLB +2.67% 14. $HOOD -.31% 15. $ZETA -2.36% 以下是 FinX 上周的表现： FinX 15 回报率（1周）：11.3% 2025 全年表现： - WallStreetBets = +76.00% - Bridgewater 的 Pure Alpha II = +34% - ARKK 创新 ETF = +35.5% - Perishing Square = +25.3% - SPY 指数 = +17.72% - Poinpoint 多策略 = +11.6% - 伯克希尔·哈撒韦 = +11.4% - Millennium Management = +10.5% - Citadel = +10.5% 结论： 仅在 5 个交易日内，FinX 社区就击败了 Citadel 的全年收益。 进入 2026 年，我们正式碾压了机构。
英文原文
"FinX vs Wall Street" report This is FinX 15, a weighted port of the most popular names: 1. $ONDS +33.26% 2. $SKYT +27.46% 3. $TE +22.62% 4. $MU +13.98% 5. $ASTS +13.24% 6. $BMNR +12.24% 7. $IREN +11.19% 8. $CIFR +8.64% 9. $AXTI +7.56% 10. $KRKNF + 7.69% 11. $NBIS +5.93% 12. $POET +5.81% 13. $RKLB +2.67% 14. $HOOD -.31% 15. $ZETA -2.36% Here's how FinX did last week: FinX 15 Return (1-Week): 11.3% For the entire 2025 calendar year: - WallStreetBets = +76.00% - Bridgewater’s Pure Alpha II = +34% - ARKK Innovation ETF = +35.5% - Perishing Square = +25.3% - SPY Index = +17.72% - Poinpoint Multi-Strategy = +11.6% - - Berkshire Hathaway = +11.4% - Millennium Management = +10.5% - Citadel = +10.5% The Bottom Line: In just 5 trading days, the FinX community beat Citadel’s entire year. We are officially smoking the institutions entering 2026
-
博主回复称多数持仓及存储股今日表现强劲，普涨。
@soulbiri1 大多数东西开局都不错，哈哈。$CRWV、$CIFR 和 $AAOI 均上涨超过 10%。$NBIS 上涨 7%，$SMCI 上涨 6%，$MRVL、$MSTR、$TSM 上涨 5%。你所有的存储(Storage)股票每天都上涨 8%。除了少数几只，到处一片绿色(上涨)。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Most things are off to a good start lol. $CRWV, $CIFR, to $AAOI both up over 10%. $NBIS up 7%, $SMCI up 6%, $MRVL, $MSTR, $TSM up 5%. All your memory stocks are up 8% every day. Green everywhere aside from a few
-
Hut8 与 Anthropic/Fluidstack 签署大规模租赁后上涨
$HUT 刚刚通过 Fluidstack 与 Anthropic 签署了一项新的三重租赁协议，容量至少 245MW，最高可达 2295MW。 该交易 15 年价值 70 亿美元，并由 $GOOGL 为交易提供兜底。 Hut8 在消息后上涨 25.28%，现在市值为 39.8 亿美元。
英文原文
$HUT has just signed a new Triple lease deal with Anthropic through Fluidstack for at least 245 MW and up to 2,295MW capacity. The deal is valued at $7 Billion over 15 years with $GOOGL backstopping the deal. Hut8 is up 25.28% on the news and now trades at a $3.98B market cap https://t.co/50O28EsJVp
-
高成长持仓遭遇大幅回撤，但散户风险可控，期权到期将清洗未平仓合约。
经历这种规模的全市场下跌真的非常痛苦。鉴于我目前的投资组合具有高贝塔值(高Beta)/成长股敞口，这大概是我亏损最严重的一天之一。只要散户没有被强制平仓(被Margin Call)或持有短期期权，他们应该没事。本月19日有大量期权到期，所以这只会清洗掉未平仓合约(Open Interest)。
英文原文
It's really painful to experience a market-wide drop at this scale. Probably one of my biggest red days given how high-beta/growth exposure my portfolio is right now. As long as retail don't get margined out or have short-dated options, they should be fine. Tons of option expiration on the 19th this month, so this just hoses out the open interest.
-
博主披露核心及轮动持仓，并解释转向方向性评论的原因。
核心持仓是高确信度的多头：$BTC、$RKLB、$HOOD、$NBIS、$ALAB、$TSM。可能将 $LITE 和 $CRCL 移入上述核心多头组合，但它们是我正在建仓的新头寸。然后是短期至中期混合持仓，如 $SNAP、$CIFR、$RDDT、$SMCI、$HIMS、$TE、$LTC、$KRUS、AMKR、$LITE、$FLY、$WLAC、$META、$AMZN、$TTD 以及现在的 $AAOI 等。我在短期至中期持仓之间进行大量轮动。我以前发布更多关于日内交易的内容，但最终在这里获得了太多粉丝，所以想转向方向性评论。发布头寸更新很难，因为我喜欢解释我这样做的原因！我记得在 $IREN 约 50-60 美元时卖出，结果在接下来的三周里收到了一堆恶评 lol
英文原文
Core portfolio is high conviction longs: $BTC, $RKLB, $HOOD, $NBIS, $ALAB, $TSM Probably moving $LITE and $CRCL to the core long port above, but they’re newer positions that I’m building up. Then short-mid term mix like $SNAP, $CIFR, $RDDT, $SMCI, $HIMS, $TE, $LTC, $KRUS, AMKR, $LITE, $FLY, $WLAC, $META, $AMZN, $TTD, and now $AAOI etc. I rotate between short-medium term holds A LOT. I used to post more day trading stuff but I ended up getting too many followers here, so wanted to switch to directional commentary. It’s hard to post position updates because I like to explain why I do things! I remember selling $IREN around $50-$60 or something and just got a bunch of hate comments for the next three weeks lol
-
更新持仓表现，计划逢高加仓AMKR/SMCI，等待LITE回调。
持仓更新： 持有高确信度的多头头寸如 $NBIS 并卖出期权，周末相对轻松。 上周小幅加仓更新： $LITE - $316.5 (+5.53%) -> ~$335.91 Lite 受益于 $NVDA Blackwell 和 $GOOGL v7 TPU 的产能爬坡。 $AMKR - $37.6 (+18.4%) ~$44.5 受益于美国关于与 $TSM 建厂的政策。 $SMCI - ~$32.92 (+5.97%) ~$210.3亿 （明年营收同比增长60%，季度积压订单延迟导致的40%跌幅是不合理的）。 $TTD - $38.6 (+3.78%) ~$40.6 除了 $CRWV 再融资20亿美元并拖累其他 Neoclouds，以及华纳兄弟1080亿美元 Paramount 收购案风波外，没看到太多新闻。 可能会在 $AMKR 和 $SMCI 上逢高加仓，等待 $LITE 更深幅度的回调。
英文原文
Stock position updates: Sitting on high-conviction longs like $NBIS and writing options, relatively lax weekend. Minor position adds updates from last week: $LITE - $316.5 (+5.53%) -> ~$335.91 Lite benefits from $NVDA Blackwell + $GOOGL v7 TPU rampup $AMKR - $37.6 (+18.4%) ~$44.5 Benefits from US-policy regarding Fab with $TSM. $SMCI - ~$32.92 (+5.97%) ~$21.03B (60% Y/Y revenue growth going into next year, the 40% drop for quarter backlog delay was unwarranted). $TTD - $38.6 (+3.78%) ~$40.6 Haven't seen too much news aside from $CRWV raising another $2B and tanking other Neoclouds. Or the $108B Paramount bid drama for Warner. Probably going to cost average up on $AMKR, $SMCI, waiting on a deeper drops for $LITE.
-
博主分享 $PL 首笔买入盈利超 300% 的持仓表现。
@Kaptainterp @RamseyJared94 我是 $PL 的超级大户。我的第一笔买入价是 3.00 美元，那笔超大的仓位目前盈利超过 300%。https://t.co/K21XR0i6wt
英文原文
@KaptainterpMy @RamseyJared94 I'm a $PL mega whale. My first buy was at $3.00 and that super large position is up 300%+ https://t.co/K21XR0i6wt
-
博主复盘整体盈利，详述NBIS、META等持仓盈亏及FLY长期逻辑。
总体来看我盈利颇丰。我刚才指的是上个月，当时像 $NBIS 这样的许多收益都被抹平了。 目前我在 $NBIS 上的持仓成本平均在 90 多美元，这让我感到意外。 $META 在最近几次看涨期权（option calls）交易中的成本均价为 640 美元，但由于我做了看涨期权，该头寸目前亏损六位数。 但我曾在 3000 美元时买入 $BTC，在 14 美元左右买入 $RKLB，在 20 美元时买入 $HOOD。 关于 $FLY，正如我之前的论点所述，这是基于 2026/2027 年中型有效载荷（medium-lift payloads）催化剂的投资。无论短期股价如何波动，都不会改变中型载荷是否研发成功的事实。 如果一年后他们最终未能研发出中型载荷且股价崩盘，你可以嘲笑我。
英文原文
Overall I'm up a lot. I was just referring to this past month where many of my gains like $NBIS were wiped out. I'm below cost average right now on $NBIS in the $90s, which was surprising. $META was $640 cost average on recent calls but I'm down 6 figures on that position since I did option calls. But I bought stuff like $BTC at $3k, $RKLB around $14 and $HOOD at $20. On $FLY as I said before in my thesis, it was a 2026/2027 catalyst play on medium-lift payloads. Whatever the stock price short term doesn't really change whether medium-lift developed. You can laugh at it if in a year if they end up failing to develop medium lift and stock price craters.
-
高确信度组合本月回撤，预期12月降息后反弹创新高。
@itsdsha 只能说，对于我高确信度组合中的 $ALAB、$HOOD、$IBIT、$META、$NBIS、$RKLB 和 $TSM 来说，这一个月确实不好过。预计随着12月降息落地，一个月后情况会好转。大多数短期保证金/期权交易者已被清算，而此类事件往往推动市场创出新高 https://t.co/YCzLLaArKa
英文原文
@itsdsha Let's just say it hasn't been a fun month for my high conviction port of $ALAB, $HOOD, $IBIT, $META, $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM for sure. Should be fine in a month come Dec rate cut. Most short term margin/option traders got liquidated, and events like these lead to higher highs https://t.co/YCzLLaArKa
-
NBIS 遭算法抛售大跌，作者认为基本面未变，跌幅不合理。
是的，全市场的反转让我措手不及。$NBIS 毫无理由地从 103 美元跌至 84 美元。Citadel 的 Rubner 表示，尽管 $NVDA 财报大幅超预期，但这纯粹是为了“去风险”目的的算法抛售。恰好明天有大量未平仓合约到期。撇开期权流向不谈，我认为因 25 个基点（bps）就出现 40% 的抛售是不合理的。“担心 AI 泡沫”或 25 个基点并不会如此根本性地改变基本面。
英文原文
Yeah market wide reversal caught me by surprise. $NBIS ended up dropping from $103 to $84 for little reason. Rubner from Citadel was saying it was a purely algorithmic selloff despite $NVDA massive earnings beat for "derisking" purposes. Just so happens tons and tons of open interest expiring tomorrow. Option flow aside, don't think a 40% selloff is warranted for 25bps. "Fearing an AI bubble" or 25 BPS doesn't change fundamentals that instrumentally.
-
作者称市场大跌为“大重置”，多只AI概念股股价回落至重大利好前水平。
我将这次市场下跌称为“大重置(The great reset)”。 许多股票的价格已重置至其基本面发生变化之前的水平。 $HIMS 回到 Zava 事件前的 $36。 $NBIS 回到微软(MSFT)交易前的 $94。 $CIFR 和 $WULF 回到 AWS/谷歌交易前的价格。 $SNAP 回到与 Perplexity 交易前的价格。 股市的“黑色星期五”提前到来了。
英文原文
The great reset is how I termed the market drop. Lot of names were reset to prices before their fundamentals changes $HIMS back to pre-Zava prices at $36. $NBIS back to pre-MSFT deal prices at $94. $CIFR $WULF back to pre-aws/googl deals $SNAP pre-perplexity deal. Early Black Friday for stocks
-
博主回顾过往交易盈亏，并列出近期市场下跌中的买入标的。
感谢在 $RDDT 上关注我！想到自己曾从温迪（Wendy's）快餐店垃圾桶旁起步，深感荣幸与谦卑。 许多卖出操作如 $CRCL、$BMNR、$RGTI 最终都兑现了收益。随着市场下跌，大量买入机会如 $NBIS、$SNAP、$META、$RDDT、$ALAB、$IBIT、$WULF、$CIFR、$RKLB、$WLAC 或 $TSM 目前出现。 我需要跟进许多标的，本周我会再发一篇类似帖子。
英文原文
Thanks for following me on $RDDT! Very humbled by my regarded roots behind the Wendys dumpsters. Lot of the sells like $CRCL, $BMNR, $RGTI finally played out. Tons of buys like $NBIS, $SNAP, $META, $RDDT, $ALAB, $IBIT, $WULF, $CIFR, $RKLB, $WLAC, or $TSM right now from the market drop. I need to catchup on a lot of names and I'll make another post like that this week.
-
作者调整META期权策略摊低成本，预期其将如NBIS般恢复。
@Neat_Lama 是的，感觉好多了。$META 的超卖走势出乎意料，但我预计它会在1月恢复。 我将期权从1月轮换至3月/4月到期，并摊低成本至约$640。目前仍大幅亏损，但我预计它会像 $NBIS 一样恢复。
英文原文
@Neat_Lama Yeah feeling better. $META extended selloff was unexpected but I expect it to recover by Jan. I rotated Jan into March/April expiration and averaged down to $640-ish. Still down a lot but I expect it to recover like $NBIS.
-
卖出低贝塔股，重仓超卖的新云板块及多只AI相关个股。
@soulbiri1 现在对 $NBIS 的敞口超过 200 万美元，在低于 96 美元时大幅加仓。在 53.8 美元重新买入 $IREN，17.3 美元买入 $CIFR，并首次建仓 $CORZ - 16.3 美元，$SMCI - 38 美元的中期头寸。整个板块被极度超卖，简直可笑。今天卖出了我的低贝塔（Low-Beta）股票，以便重仓回归新云（Neoclouds）领域。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 $2M+ in $NBIS exposure now, added super heavily at <$96. Rebought $IREN at $53.8, $CIFR at $17.3 and initiating $CORZ - $16.3, $SMCI - $38 mid term positions. The whole sector is hilariously oversold. Sold off my low-beta stocks today to position heavily back into Neoclouds.
-
博主表示乐意继续持有NBIS的套牢仓位。
@dubiousnoob @Mitchelldzll @455BAG 我很乐意继续持有 $NBIS 的套牢仓位。 https://t.co/AX2GN6tA5F
英文原文
@dubiousnoob @Mitchelldzll @455BAG Im happy bagholding $NBIS https://t.co/AX2GN6tA5F
-
博主因感冒减少看盘，对META定投看涨期权，心态佛系。
嗯，如果政府停摆持续，可能会再次下跌，谁知道呢。我这周感冒挺严重，所以没花太多时间看市场或刷 X。刚读完财报和新闻后，对 $META 进行了定投看涨期权(DCA calls)，除此之外这几天我心态挺佛系的。
英文原文
Eh, might dip again going if Gov shutdown prolongs, who knows. I've been out with a pretty bad cold this week so haven't been spending much time looking at markets + reading X. Just DCA'd calls on $META after reading through earnings + news, but otherwise pretty nonchalant few days for me.
-
博主反思错失 $OSS 买入机会，因低估其成为 Anduril 供应商的概率。
@Aiime_ai 是的，我本应在做 $OSS 尽职调查(DD) 且股价为 4.7 美元时买入。鉴于 OSS 有 70-80% 的概率成为 Anduril 的供应商，而其市值仅为 1.1 亿美元，这看起来好得有些不真实……就这样错失了一次免费的 20%+ 收益。
英文原文
@Aiime_ai Yeah, I probably should have bought $OSS when I did the DD at $4.7. 70-85% probability of OSS being an Anduril supplier with a $110m marketcap seemed a bit too good to be true... There goes a free 20%+ https://t.co/nz6DYuXxsa
-
博主因错过自己的深度研究感到遗憾，并坦言希望OSS股价下跌。
@arthur_alston 错过自己的深度研究(DD)感觉很糟。我很大一部分内心希望 $OSS 下跌。 https://t.co/GwgMKRGsiB
英文原文
@arthur_alston Feels bad missing out on my own DD. A large part of me is hoping $OSS goes down. https://t.co/GwgMKRGsiB
-
博主展示其DUOL、PLTR、HIMS持仓，戏称其市值将达万亿并询问是否卖课。
@RJCcapital 你怎么看我的投资组合 @DeepValueBagger @RJCcapital 它们都将成为10万亿美元市值的公司。 1. $DUOL - 50万亿美元的语言AI基础设施。 2. $PLTR - 从这里起涨100倍 - 50万亿美元的利息利润。 3. $HIMS - 500万亿美元的伟哥（🐔 pills）。世界需要它。 值得卖课吗？
英文原文
@RJCcapital What do you think of my port @DeepValueBagger @RJCcapital they all will be 10T companies 1. $DUOL - 50T AI infrastructure for language 2. $PLTR - 100x from here - 50T off interest profit. 3. $HIMS- 500T off 🐔 pills. The world needs it. Is it worth selling a course too?
-
博主复盘近期看错方向的高确信度标的，分析原因并重申长期逻辑。
通常我在短期时间框架上会出错，但在任何高确信度的方向上我始终是正确的。 最近主要犯错的三个案例是：$LTC ETF 催化剂判断失误，即使获批后也从 $113 跌至 $82.5。这可能是最奇怪的事情之一，尽管政府停摆期间获批概率高达 95% 却遭遇延迟，随后又在停摆期间随机获批（连我都不知道），然后随大盘高贝塔抛售而暴跌。 另一个是 $SG，我认为它会从 $7.5-$8.3 反弹，但现在是 $6.3，消费品领域存在巨大的熊市。因此它受到了 $CMG、$CAVA、$KRUS 等抛售的影响。 最后一个是 $VIRT，尤其是现在市盈率仅为 7 或类似的荒谬水平。他们发布了财报，每股收益 $1.05 对比预期 $0.97-$1.04（超预期），营收 $4.67 亿对比预期 $4.184 亿-$4.497 亿（超预期），但依然被抛售。（这更多是一种非对称对冲），但即使基本面如此，我也不明白为什么它的市盈率约为 7.5。人们总说 X 是一只伟大的价值投资股票，交易市盈率约为 15，而这是个位数市盈率（但更受零售交易活动的周期性影响，不过 $HOOD 正在报告创纪录数据，所以应该是一个很好的代理指标）。 对我来说这仍然是一个极端的谜团……我认为它被低估了，尤其是考虑到回购，可能会成为另一个 $UPWK。 其他像核能 SPAC 之类我为了好玩买的，属于半赌博的迷因股，所以下跌更容易理解。通常如果我背后有论点支撑，那么准确率会更高。 像 $SNAP、$FLY 和其他一些我坚持是 2026 年布局的股票，短期并不重要。像 $WLAC 这类是 IPO 催化剂交易，所以在其低流通盘 SPAC 阶段的高贝塔波动在事件发生前意义不大。
英文原文
Usually only on short term time-frames I'm wrong but I've always been directionally right for anything higher conviction. Recently main three were I got wrong were the $LTC ETF catalyst wrong, even after approval it dropped from $113 -> $82.5. Probably one of the weirdest things since it got delayed even despite 95% approval odds from gov shutdown then randomly approved during shutdown (and even I didn't know about it). Then just tanked on broader market high beta sell offs. The other was $SG, thought it would rebound from $7.5-$8.3 or so but it's $6.3, there's a huge bear market on anything consumer. So it got affected by $CMG, $CAVA, $KRUS, etc. selloffs. The last was $VIRT, especially now with a p/e of 7 or something ridiculous. They reported earnings and $1.05 vs. $0.97 - $1.04 (beat) and $467.0 million revenue vs. $418.4 million - $449.7 million (beat), but still sold off. (This was more of an asymmetrical hedge) but even with fundamentals, I have no clue why it's ~7.5 P/E. People always are like X is a great value investor stock trading at ~15 P/E, this is single digit P/E (but more cyclical on retail trading activity, but $HOOD is reporting record numbers so should be a good proxy). Still an extreme enigma to me... I think it's undervalued, especially with buybacks and might be another $UPWK. Other stuff like nuclear SPACs I bought for fun were half-gambling memes so more understandable if they went down. Usually if I put a thesis behind it then it's more accurate. Stuff like $SNAP, $FLY, and others I've maintained was a 2026 play, so short term doesn't really matter. Things like $WLAC were IPO catalyst plays so high-beta movement during its low float SPAC days doesn't really mean much until the event happens.
-
澄清Neocloud持仓集中于NBIS和WLAC，并指出其他板块亦有动量机会。
@mikelfilko 当然，我目前的 Neocloud 持仓主要集中在 $NBIS 和 $WLAC 上。 其他人可能有不同的持仓，我上面列出的只是例子，并非我个人的全部操作。每个板块以及许多其他具有动量的板块中还有更多机会。
英文原文
@mikelfilko Of course, my Neocloud positions are concentrated in $NBIS and $WLAC right now. People can have others, I just listed examples above, not what I personally did. There's a lot more out there for each sector and many other sectors that have momentum.
-
博主分享3天48%收益，调侃用利润买午餐。
@soulbiri1 哇，3天48%的回报总是令人愉悦。$43K足够买几份$SG沙拉当午餐了。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 ooo 48% return in 3 days is always nice. $43K is enough to buy a few $SG salads for lunch.
-
博主清仓$GRRR，因SEA交易存疑，并引用其年度持仓复盘帖。
@adenois @RJCcapital 在SEA交易看起来可疑后，我清仓了$GRRR。我在几个地方发过关于它的帖子，比如 https://t.co/tzom3aAdSk
英文原文
@adenois @RJCcapital I sold out of $GRRR after the SEA deal seemed sketchy. I made a post about it in a few places like https://t.co/tzom3aAdSk
-
展示Neocloud板块个股一个月涨幅，重申看好并集中持仓NBIS。
Neocloud（新云）的投资逻辑经受住了时间的考验。 一个月后： $CRWV 120.34 → 135.64 (+12.7%) $NBIS 107.70 → 126.49 (+17.5%) $WULF 10.63 → 13.69 (+28.8%) $IREN 41.68 → 64.69 (+55.2%) $CIFR 11.47 → 20.70 (+80.4%) $BITF 2.54 → 4.51 (+77.6%) $WYFI 22.83 → 36.52 (+59.9%) $GRRR 19.90 → 16.95 (−14.8%) $SLNH 2.75 → 2.81 (+2.2%) $RIOT 17.69 → 23.01 (+30.1%) $MARA 16.13 → 19.61 (+21.6%) $CLSK 12.96 → 20.21 (+56.0%) $HUT 33.16 → 49.95 (+50.6%) 这仅仅是史上最大规模AI数据中心建设浪潮的开始，金融圈(X)上的所有人现在入场都还为时过早。 我对整个Neocloud板块非常看好，但个人因$NBIS具有最高的非对称回报潜力而集中持仓。
英文原文
The Neocloud thesis aged well. 1 month later: $CRWV 120.34 → 135.64 (+12.7%) $NBIS 107.70 → 126.49 (+17.5%) $WULF 10.63 → 13.69 (+28.8%) $IREN 41.68 → 64.69 (+55.2%) $CIFR 11.47 → 20.70 (+80.4%) $BITF 2.54 → 4.51 (+77.6%) $WYFI 22.83 → 36.52 (+59.9%) $GRRR 19.90 → 16.95 (−14.8%) $SLNH 2.75 → 2.81 (+2.2%) $RIOT 17.69 → 23.01 (+30.1%) $MARA 16.13 → 19.61 (+21.6%) $CLSK 12.96 → 20.21 (+56.0%) $HUT 33.16 → 49.95 (+50.6%) This is only the beginning of the largest AI data center buildout in history and everyone on finx is still early. I'm very bullish on the Neocloud sector across the board, but personally have concentration in $NBIS due to the highest asymmetrical return.
-
博主发帖后，NBIS等股票出现罕见反向波动。
@RJCcapital 短期股价意义不大，但看到通常低贝塔值（且与矿企正相关）的 $NBIS 在我发帖后首次反向波动，这很有趣。 $NBIS: +7.71% $CIFR: -1.21% $BITF: -2.21% $IREN: +2.35% $WULF: +0.08%
英文原文
@RJCcapital Short term stock price don't mean much but it is pretty interesting seeing $NBIS that's usually lower beta (and miners that go up in correlation) start to move in reverse for the first time after my post $NBIS: +7.71% $CIFR: -1.21% $BITF: - 2.21% $IREN: +2.35% $WULF: +.08%
-
博主称已投入30万美金看涨期权，以行动证明NBIS被极度低估。
@AnaCintra24 @MktMavPro @Lazoumance1 我大约在2个交易日前加了$300k的看涨期权(call options) lol。如果我说某物被极度低估，我会真金白银地证明我的观点。
英文原文
@AnaCintra24 @MktMavPro @Lazoumance1 I added $300k in call options like 2 trading days ago lol. If I say something is extremely undervalued, I put money where my mouth is. https://t.co/pKEHP8UhHh
-
博主解释年底税务操作，并反思Rocket Lab减仓失误。
@soulbiri1 是的，我会写一篇分析文章！目前出于税务目的有点特殊，如果不是年底，我不会真的卖出那些我认为还会涨的股票。 另外，不要听信我关于卖出高确信度盈利头寸的建议，我在 $RKLB 30美元时减仓了约60万美元。可能只是持有 https://t.co/tWEMWr3q4r
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yeah I'll do a writeup! It's a bit special right now for tax purposes, I wouldn't really sell stocks I still think would go back up if it weren't EOY. Also don't trust me on selling wining positions with high conviction, I trimmed like $600k of $RKLB at $30. Probably just hold https://t.co/tWEMWr3q4r
-
博主反思买入高估核能股OKLO的错误决策。
@iamsattam 你说得对，感谢提醒我关于 $NKLR 的事。吸取教训：我一直说像 $OKLO 这样的核能股估值高得离谱，真不知道我当时为什么决定把它当作一个可能没有收入的“梗”股来买入。https://t.co/vOKJG56mA5
英文原文
@iamsattam You're right thanks for the reminder on $NKLR. Lesson learned: I've been saying nuclear like $OKLO is hilariously overvalued, no clue why I decided to buy it just as a potential no-revenue meme. https://t.co/vOKJG56mA5
-
博主复盘今年亏损持仓，总结税务收割、迷因股及期权交易教训。
周末反思 ☁️ 我想列出今年所有亏损的持仓+经验教训。 ___ 1. $ETOR - ($62 → $38.6, 定投 $48, -19.58%) 2. $VIRT - (~$38 → $33, -45%) 3. $SNAP - ($8.2 → $7.69, -6.2%) (新) 4. $SG - ($8.2 → $7.32, -10.73%) 5. $GRRR - ($20.5 → $16.99, -17.12%) 6. $FLY - ($30.2 → $26.5, -12.25%) (新) 7. $LTC - ($113 → $91.1, -19.3%) 8. $OPAD - ($4.61 → $2.94, -36.2%) 9. $CRM - (~$250 → ~$243, ~30%) 10. $AMZN - ($218 → $213) (新) 11. $RDDT - ($202 → $195) (新) 12. $WULF - ($14.5 → $14) (新) 我发了很多股票，很高兴只有约7只短期看错（抱歉如果漏了一两只），还有约5只没踩准绝对底部。 我仍然认为它们会在2026年大涨，输家不多！ 个人反思 1. $ETOR: 基本面很好的股票。即使下跌~20%，我相信它会在2026年恢复。1/3现金，以盈透证券(IBKR)的速度增长。它受税务收割(tax-harvesting)效应影响（10月/11月），因为对冲基金卖出并在12月回购。 经验教训：无，我会再做一次。持有至2026年。为税务收割小幅减仓。 2. $VIRT: 如果我买看涨期权，可能不应该公开发布，因为这会影响对冲资金流。临近两次降息（对股市利好）时减仓进行税务收割。对冲有效但损失不少。 经验教训：对冲操作保密。仍然认为方向正确，只是想税务收割。 3. $SNAP: 在$8.2左右发布，当时他们将记忆功能转化为收入。这是2026年的布局，不担心短期税务收割。 经验教训：无。持有至2026年。 4. $SG: 说实话，我只是喜欢沙拉🥗。今年早些时候是$35+。我认为它最终会恢复，只是等待游戏，因为现在约1倍市销率(p/s)？ 经验教训：无。中期持有。 5. $GRRR: 调查其$14亿合同后迁移至$WLAC，看起来可疑。被$3.8亿市值对比$14亿收入潜力所诱。 经验教训：相信对可疑公司的直觉。如果属实可能5倍，但我不信任。可能不该进入。（已减仓） 6. $FLY: 下跌~12%，仍然是2026年中期升力布局。最近发布，时机可能更好。 经验教训：无，也许税务收割时机更好。 7. $LTC: 下跌~20%。加密货币被清算+政府停摆延迟ETF批准所重创。 经验教训：不要杠杆炒币。政府停摆延迟ETF批准哈哈。 8. $OPAD: 之前卖出，但当前价格-36%。我冲进去的迷因股(meme stock)。 经验教训：不要碰迷因股。 9. $CRM: 因短期期权+错过财报日损失~30%。波段交易搞砸了。 经验教训：始终检查财报日，只是一次性错误，以前没犯过。 10. $AMZN: 它是亚马逊。有时下跌1%。 经验教训：无。刚发布不久。 11. $RDDT: 以为$200是底部，进一步下跌。平均成本降至$190。 经验教训：无。刚发布不久。 12. $WULF: 因为所有新云(neoclouds)都在涨而买入。$14.5买入，跌至$14。 经验教训：不要盲目追高(ape)。时机可能更好。 _ 税务收割总结 除了新持仓($AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF)和提到的中期布局如$FLY（持有至2026年）外，大部分输家为年底税务收割而减仓。 TLDR: - 年底不要重仓税务收割股（如$LULU, $ETOR, $SNAP）。如果择时，等12月。 - 停止交易迷因股如$OPAD。 - 当SEA相关公司看起来可疑时相信直觉($GRRR)。 - 期权资金流影响流动性较差的股票（如$VIRT）。3月看涨期权可能仍会大涨，其他人买入可能影响行情，只是想税务收割。 其他交易如$AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF非常新，也许时机更好，但没踩准绝对底部。 _ 总体而言，目前还好！我数不清有多少100%+的收益...输家数量仍然很少，无论是数量还是仓位规模。
英文原文
Weekend Reflections ☁️ I just wanted to post every position I'm down on this year + lessons learned. ___ 1. $ETOR - ($62 → $38.6, DCA $48, -19.58%) 2. $VIRT - (~$38 → $33, -45%) 3. $SNAP - ($8.2 → $7.69, -6.2%) (new) 4. $SG - ($8.2 → $7.32, -10.73%) 5. $GRRR - ($20.5 → $16.99, -17.12%) 6. $FLY - ($30.2 → $26.5, -12.25%) (new) 7. $LTC - ($113 → $91.1, -19.3%) 8. $OPAD - ($4.61 → $2.94, -36.2%) 9. $CRM - (~$250 → ~$243, ~30%) 10. $AMZN - ($218 → $213) (new) 11. $RDDT - ($202 → $195) (new) 12. $WULF - ($14.5 → $14) (new) I post a ton of stocks, and I'm happy that there are only about 7 I've gotten wrong short-term (sorry if i miss one or two by accident) and about 5 that I didn't time the absolute bottom correctly. I still think they'll print in 2026, not too many losers though! Individual Reflections 1. $ETOR: Great stock fundamentally. Even down ~20%, I believe this will recover in 2026. 1/3 cash, growing at IBKR rates. It suffers from tax-harvesting effects (October/November) as hedge funds sell and rebuy in December. Lesson learned: None, Id do the same again. Holding for 2026. Trimmed slightly for tax harvest. 2. $VIRT: If I buy calls, probably shouldn't post publicly since it affects hedging flow. Trimmed for tax harvesting since we're nearing two more rate cuts (bullish for markets). Hedging worked but lost quite a bit. Lesson learned: Keep hedges to myself. Still think I'm directionally right, just wanted to tax harvest. 3. $SNAP: Posted around $8.2 when they converted memories to revenue. This is a 2026 play, not worried about short-term tax harvesting. Lesson learned: None. Holding for 2026. 4. $SG: Honestly, I just like the salad 🥗. It was $35+ earlier this year. I think it'll recover eventually, just a waiting game cause it's like 1 p/s now? Lesson learned: None. Medium-term hold. 5. $GRRR: Migrated into $WLAC after investigating their $1.4B contract more, seemed sus. Got baited by the $380M market cap vs. $1.4B revenue potential. Lesson learned: Trust my gut on suspicious companies. Could 5x if legit, but I don't trust it. Probably shouldn’t have entered. (Trimmed) 6. $FLY: Down ~12%, still a 2026 medium-lift play. Posted recently, could’ve timed better. Lesson learned: None, maybe better tax-harvest timing. 7. $LTC: Down ~20%. Crypto got nuked by liquidations + government shutdown delays ETF approvals. Lesson learned: Don’t margin crypto. Government shutdowns delay ETF approvals lol. 8. $OPAD: Sold earlier, but current prices are -36%. Meme stock I aped into. Lesson learned: Don’t touch meme stocks. 9. $CRM: ~30% loss due to short-dated options + missing earnings date. Swing trade gone wrong. Lesson learned: Always check earnings dates, was just a on-off mistake, dont think I've ever made this mistake before. 10. $AMZN: It’s Amazon. Moves down 1% sometimes. Lesson learned: None. Just posted recently. 11. $RDDT: Thought $200 was bottom, dipped further. Averaged down to $190. Lesson learned: None. Just posted recently. 12. $WULF: Bought because all neoclouds were going up. Bought at $14.5, dipped to $14. Lesson learned: Don't ape into stocks. Could've timed better. _ Tax Harvesting Summary Trimmed most losers for EOY tax harvesting, except newer positions ($AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF) and medium-term plays like $FLY (holding through 2026) that I mentioned. TLDR: - Don't go hard into tax-harvested stocks end of year (e.g. $LULU, $ETOR, $SNAP). Wait for December if timing. - Stop trading meme-stocks like $OPAD. - Trust my gut when SEA-related companies seem suspicious ($GRRR). - Option flows affect less-liquid stocks (e.g. $VIRT). March calls could still print so other people buying might affect things, just wanted to tax harvest tho. Other trades like $AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF are very recent, maybe could've timed them better, but get the exact bottom. _ Overall, so far so good! I've lost count of how many 100%+ returns I've had... and the number of losers is still small, both for count and position size.
-
博主反思应多买NBIS价外期权，但表示释然。
@babyfolio 2026年12月到期的期权，$110-$115的价位！ 我现在回想起来，本应该多做一些价外(OTM)的$NBIS $125行权价期权。不过没关系。
英文原文
@babyfolio December strikes like $110-$115 for 2026! I should have done more OTM $NBIS strikes like $125 now that I think of it. It’s okay though