方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 663 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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提醒股票不会直线上涨
@amz_2077 我觉得很多人会惊讶，股票并不会只沿着直线往上走。
英文原文
@amz_2077 I think many people will be surprised to learn that stocks don’t move in a straight line up.
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强调 CPO 仍处最早期，大家都能提前布局
早？它才刚开始，大家都能提前抢跑下一轮大超级周期。 $LITE 自己都说了，CPO 存在极其严重的供需失衡，而 scale up CPO 还是它们最大的单一增长驱动，只是现在还在幼年期…… 这对 CPO 名字来说极度看多。
英文原文
Early? It's at the very beginning, and everyone gets to frontrun the next major supercycle. $LITE literally went out and said there's an incredible supply demand imbalance for CPO. And that scale up CPO is their largest single growth driver that's still at its infancy... This is incredibly bullish for CPO names.
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强调自己从未见过比 CPO 更牛的板块
再强调一次我的难以置信： 我从来没见过比 CPO 更看多的板块。 GS 把光学 TAM 从 2026 年的 150 亿美元 -> 2028 年的 1540 亿美元，增长 9 倍。 其中 CPO 就占了 910 亿美元。 从今天大约 1.64 亿美元的采样阶段（Modor 的 2026 估算）一路到 910 亿美元（GS 2028），这条曲线就是 55,000%+ 的增长。 这正是为什么算法 / 分析师会犯错，因为他们只会看这些 CPO 名字的 TTM 营收。 但接下来两年里一切都会发生在 $SIVE、Shunsin、MSSCorps、$SOI 这些名字身上。 这是在 $NVDA 推动下，从 0 到 100 的巨大架构转移。 我真的不认为散户或市场已经明白接下来会发生什么。
英文原文
Just reiterating my disbelief: I have never seen a sector more bullish than CPO. GS reported Optical TAM 9X from $15b in 2026 -> US$154b in 2028 CPO making up $91B of that. Starting from ~$164M (Modor for 2026 / sampling) to $91 Billion (GS 2028) 55,000%+ CPO growth curve starting from today This is exactly why algorithms / analysts mess up because they might look at TTM revenue at these CPO names. But everything happens in the next two years with $SIVE to Shunsin to MSSCorps to $SOI. This is Zero to 100 from a massive architectural shift pushed by $NVDA. I genuinely still don't think retail or markets understand what's coming yet.
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博主回顾过往精准预测成绩，坚信$SIVE光子学投资逻辑正确
确实...我确实预测过： $AXTI 从 $12 -> $105 $SOI 从 $43 -> $145 $TSEM 从 $110 -> $218 $AAOI 从 $30 -> $180 $IQE 从 $13 -> $46 $LITE 从 $363 -> $1000 $AEHR 从 $30 -> $85 (如果算上siph业务板块) 这些都是作为独立论点帖发布的...还有去年类似的 $COHR 和 Innolight... 我认为 $SIVE 目前是争议最大的，但我真的认为我是对的。 感觉我在光子学(photonics)领域看到了一些别人看不到的东西？
英文原文
True… I did call: $AXTI $12 -> $105 $SOI $43-> $145 $TSEM $110 -> $218 $AAOI $30 -> $180 $IQE $13 -> $46 $LITE $363 -> $1000 $AEHR $30 -> $85 (if you count siph segment) As individual thesis posts… and others like $COHR and Innolight last year… I think $SIVE is the most debated right now, but I do think I’m right. Feels like I’m seeing something others don’t with photonics?
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再次强调 CPO TAM 扩张过于夸张
GS 已经把 CPO 超级周期画成了不正常的 9 倍 TAM 预期。 从 2026 年的 150 亿美元到 2028 年的 1540 亿美元，其中 CPO 占 910 亿美元。 这就是为什么我对这类名字这么看多。
英文原文
GS has mapped out the CPO supercycle with unholy projections of 9x TAM projections. From $15B to $154B in a short timeframe. CPO contributing $91B. This is why I’m so bullish on $SIVE as one of bleeding edge CPO laser suppliers. Reminds me of the horse Golden Tempo. But for lasers. Still a small $1.5B MC, while all the others are tens of billions.
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强调 CPO 还非常早，自己在帮散户抢跑机构
@tw_crypto_ 这对 CPO 来说真的非常早。 我只是喜欢在机构之前，最开始的时候帮散户找到下一个超级周期。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ This is extremely early for CPO. I just help retail find the next supercycles at the very beginning before institutions do.
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列出自己最偏好的高 beta 和复利型名字
@Meatusmax 如果是我个人会这么做： “高上行火箭”： 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCorp 3. PCL 4. $AAOI 复利型： 1. Shunsin 2. Sumitomo 3. Furukawa 4. $COHR 5. $LITE
英文原文
@Meatusmax Maybe here's what I'd do personally: "High Upside Rockets": 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCorp 3. PCL 4. $AAOI Compounders: 1. Shunsin 2. Sumitomo 3. Furukawa 4. $COHR 5. $LITE
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补充自己认为 laser chokepoint 最有上行
@tw_crypto_ 对，我觉得 laser chokepoint 的上行最好。 但这不意味着其他机会就不低估或不够吸引人。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ Yep laser chokepoint has the highest upside imo. But that doesn't mean other opportunities aren't undervalued/compelling.
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强调高置信 thesis 最后都会翻倍
你在开玩笑吗？如果我对 thesis 有把握，我会直接写高置信。 我对 $SIVE、$AEHR、$AAOI 都是这么做的，最后它们都翻了三倍。 我不会分享仓位大小，因为这并不重要。
英文原文
Are you kidding? I always write high conviction if I’m confident in my thesis. And I do it with $SIVE, $AEHR, $AAOI, which all end up tripling. I don’t share position sizing since I don’t want blind copy traders. People should manage their own portfolio and build their own conviction. Without just copying me.
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认为收费看股的服务大多只是因为想法不够好
我越来越确信，那些收 200 或 2000 美元，才给你看股票 pick 的人，多半只是因为自己的想法不够好。 不然他们完全可以直接把这些想法公开做多。
英文原文
I’m convinced that the people who charge $200 or $2000 just to see their stock picks. Do so just because their ideas aren’t good enough. Otherwise they would just go long on them with their own capital and retire. This is why they get mad when they see others sharing better ideas for free.
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揭示机构借媒体打压股价后建仓的套路，批评机构非散户友军。
$SIVE是一场从瑞典本地投资者到美国投资者的巨额财富转移。本地人等待了很多很多年，期待所有激光研发能在共封装光学(CPO)和硅光子学(silicon photonics)上得到回报。但现在随着超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)的量产出货在2026年下半年至2027年上半年，他们却得不到任何上涨收益，因为在信任当地媒体后把股票转让给了美国/西方投资者。我的预测是，如果Sivers在纳斯达克达到40-80亿美元，我们会看到同样的媒体待遇。然后股票又从美国散户转移到美国机构。你已经在这场底部看到了同样的剧本，比如$IQE和$SOI...当时机构发布"研报"说Soitec被高估了。一个月后股价涨了3倍，因为摩根士丹利恰好买入$SOI流通股的6.5%...或者Point72买入$IQE。机构不是你的朋友。不过我是在为散户的最佳利益着想。
英文原文
$SIVE was a massive transfer from Swedish locals to US investors. Locals waited many, many years for all the laser R&D to pay off for CPO and silicon photonics. And now with hyperscaler volume ramp H2 2026 H1 2027, they don’t get any upside because they transferred their shares over to the US/West after trusting local media. My prediction is if and when Sivers hits $4-8B on NASDAQ, we’ll get the same media treatment in the US. Then the shares get transferred from US retail to US institutions. You’ve already seen the same playbook with $IQE and $SOI at the bottom… with institutions posting “analyst reports” saying Soitec was overvalued. The next month they go up 3x as Morgan Stanley happens to pick up 6.5% of the $SOI float… or Point72 with $IQE. Institutions are not your friends. I’m looking out for retail’s best interest though.
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记忆类公司往往提前重估
我说过，像 $SNDK 或 $MU 这种存储公司，重估发生在真正公布财报之前，而不是财报当天。 你可以用第三方 NAND/DRAM TrendForce 这类涨价报告来估算，再据此推 gross margin。 我之前就拿美光做过例子，算出来的毛利率和实际报告几乎完全一致。
英文原文
I said with memory companies like $SNDK or $MU, the repricing happens before the actual earnings. Not actual earnings. You can estimate it with third party NAND/DRAM Trendforce type price hike reports. Then estimate gross margins off of those. I did it for Micron earlier as an example and got reported gross margins spot on.
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看利润数字，不要盯图线
@ConfusedNDazzed 我会忽略图上的线，只看 $RDDT 的纯数字。他们的盈利能力离谱，而且增长率还在疯狂上升。 估值最终会回到基本面上。
英文原文
@ConfusedNDazzed I would ignore the lines on the chart and just look at pure numbers for $RDDT. Their profitability is absurd and they’re still growing at insane rates. Valuations will catch up to fundamentals eventually.
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要求给出处而非猜测
@kxshxl CEO 在财报电话会上并没有这么说。 除非你能提供来源，否则我不认为他确认过任何关于机器出货量的数字。 也许你之前拿 ASP 和 TAM 的估算去推了那个数字？或者只是引用了 100 台机器报价的示例采购单。
英文原文
@kxshxl CEO didn’t say that in earnings call. I don’t think he confirmed any number around machine volume unless you can provide a source. Maybe you took ASP and former TAM estimates previously for that figure? Or just referenced the example PO for 100 machines quote.
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解读 LPKF 财报要看量产信号
关于 LPKF Laser < $LPK / $LPKFF> 财报的一些看法： 这很微妙，下面是市场可能漏掉的点： 如果你把财务数据孤立出来看，又不理解认证周期，那看起来就很糟。 财报电话会上关于量产爬坡的信号才是真正重要的。 1. “先进封装领域的潜在量产订单没有计入当前的基准指引” 任何在下半年落地的量产设备订单，都会立刻对他们的预期形成上行惊喜。（正面） 2. “LIDE 目前已在众多半导体客户的测试和研发环境中使用；预期后续订单……” 这确认了我们预期的情况，很多半导体公司都在对 $LPK 做认证。（正面） 3. “今年预计会有首批生产订单” 这意味着 2026 年下半年会确认量产爬坡拐点，这可能是市场漏掉的最大信号，而且这些内容没有计入任何预测。（非常正面） 从之前的采访里，我们还能拼出： 问：2027 年是否仍是玻璃基板进入大规模生产的起点？这个时间表还成立吗？ “是的。市场参与者正在为生产设备下单，第一季度已经录得初始订单。虽然挑战仍在，但我依然预计 2027 年会标志着大规模生产的开始。” 2027 年是玻璃核心基板的大规模生产，但 2026 年下半年才是 $LPK 量产订单的起点，而且**这些并不在任何预测里**。 财报已经确认了这些时间线。 基本上： -> 你不会在财务预测里看到和玻璃核心基板量产爬坡有关的任何内容，而这恰恰是美国投资者最关心的。 -> 单看财报，客观上很差，但如果你是按过去 12 个月而不是未来增长来建模，那才会这么看。 -> 已确认下半年开始爬坡。玻璃核心基板 2027 年进入量产。 如果有什么的话，这对玻璃核心基板量产爬坡的核心逻辑其实非常正面。 关键还是要看订单有多少。
英文原文
Thoughts on LPKF Laser < $LPK / $LPKFF> earnings: Very nuanced, here's what markets might have missed: If you look at the financials in isolation and don't understand qualification cycles, it's bad. The earnings call for volume ramp indicators are what's actually important. 1. "Potential volume orders in Advanced Packaging are not included in this baseline guidance" Any volume production equipment order that lands H2 will act as an immediate upside surprise to their projections. (positive) 2. "LIDE is currently in use by numerous semiconductor customers in test and R&D environments; the expected follow-up orders..." Confirmation of what we expected, with many semiconductor companies qualifying $LPK. (positive) 3. "First production orders expected this year" Inflection point of volume ramp confirmation H2 2026, this is probably the biggest signal markets missed + no projections included around that. (very positive) From previous interviews we can stitch together: Q: 2027 as the start of mass production for glass substrates. Does this timeline still hold? "Yes. Market players are preparing orders for production equipment, and initial orders have already been recorded in the first quarter. While challenges remain, I still expect 2027 to mark the beginning of mass production." 2027 is mass production of glass core substrates, but H2 2026 is start of mass production orders for $LPK, **which is not included in any forecasts**. We got confirmation of timelines from earnings. Basically: -> You won't see any projections/financials around glass core substrate related VOLUME RAMP which is the only thing American investors care about with this company. -> Earnings in isolation were objectively terrible, but you only care about this as a European if you model based on previous 12 months only (instead of future growth). -> Confirmation of volume ramp starting H2. Glass Core substrate mass production 2027. If anything, this was extremely positive for the core thesis about volume ramp for glass core substrates. We'll see how much the orders are though.
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财报前的收入缺口不该过度解读
@IkaKnight_ 我只是觉得 X 上很多人因为之前的营收缺口就慌了，这太好笑了，因为这明明还处在认证阶段。 这是前瞻性的东西，所以要等财报电话会。如果电话会是负面的，那这种恐慌才算合理。
英文原文
@IkaKnight_ I'm just laughing people on X are panicking over previous revenue miss when it's literally qualification stage. It's a forward looking, so need to wait for earnings call. If the call is negative, then any panic is justified.
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LPK 财报要看电话会而不是当期数据
$LPK / $LPKFF 的财报出来了。 我在 X 上看到很多非常愚蠢的评论。如果你想知道怎么分析认证周期公司，其实和 $AEHR 一样。 除非有特别糟糕的消息，否则没人会在意当期盈利。你在量产爬坡前营收少了 800 万欧元，也不代表什么。 LPKF 之所以值得做多，唯一原因就是 2027 年 LIDE 玻璃核心基板进入量产。 真正要看的，是两小时后的电话会，而不是当期财务数据，以及关于高量产和客户的 संकेत。 人们之前在 $AEHR 上也犯过同样的错误，因为看了旧财报就卖掉，而不是听电话会。
英文原文
$LPK / $LPKFF earnings are out. Seeing a lot of very dumb commentary on X. If you're wondering how to analyze qualification-cycle players, it's the same as $AEHR. Nobody cares about current earnings unless there's something extremely bad. If your revenue declines -8M euros before any volume ramp, it doesn't mean anything. The only reason why LPKF is a long anyway is 2027 LIDE glass core substrate mass production. Main thing to look at is earnings call in 2 hours not current financials and indication of high volume production + customers. People made this same mistake with $AEHR selling off on previous financials instead of listening to the call.
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CPO 还没有量产爬坡
@siflower CPO 现在还没有量产爬坡。
英文原文
@siflower There's no volume ramp for CPO yet.
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TER 不是好代理，FORM 和 VIAV 更纯
@gregory_FTA $TER 不是个好的代理，因为它们体量太大了。它们还暴露在非 AI 领域，比如智能手机芯片、EV/汽车。 而且它们还要面对 Advantest 的竞争。 更好的信号是更纯粹的标的，比如 $FORM 和 $VIAV。
英文原文
@gregory_FTA $TER is not a good proxy because they're extremely large. They had exposure to non-AI segments like smartphone chips, EV/automotive. Then they're facing competition from Advantest. Best signals are more pure play from $FORM and $VIAV.
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看基本面和市值，不要只看图
@forget8106 我不同意，我个人最近才刚进了 MSSCorp。 还是看基本面和市值更好，而不是只盯着图看它涨了多少。
英文原文
@forget8106 I’d disagree, I personally just entered MSSCorp recently. It’s better to look at fundamentals and MC rather than just looking at the chart to see how much it ran up.
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亚洲/欧盟股票不该按美股期权对待
是啊，很高兴听到别人也有同样感受。你提到的 Win Semi/HPS.A 是少数几个更罕见、保证金要求更低的例子。 但即便这些标的已经到了十亿美元市值，它们大多数时候还是会被收 100% 左右的维持保证金。 亚洲 / 欧盟的纯多头股票，不应该和美国短期期权一样对待，我希望 $IBKR 能稍微放宽一点限制。
英文原文
Yeah glad to hear others are feeling the same. Win Semi/HPS.A were a few of the rarer ones that had lower margin requirements as you mentioned. But even if they're in the billion MC range, they still get slapped with close to 100% maintenance margin most of the time. Long only equity in Asia/EU shouldn't be treated the same as US short dated options and I hope $IBKR eases restrictions a bit.
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IBKR 的保证金规则太离谱
@Ren_aramb 对，$IBKR 在保证金要求上真的很会整活……而且波动一大它们就加码。 就像 100% 保证金和短期美股期权差不多，但你拿的明明只是亚洲 / 欧盟纯股票？ 连用期权做多的维持保证金都比这低，哈哈。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb Yeah $IBKR is trolling with the margin requirements... and they hike it on volatility too. Like 100% is the same as short dated US options, but instead you just holding pure equities in Asia/EU? Even going long with options has less maintenance margin lol.
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IBKR 海外股票保证金过高
呃……$IBKR + Portfolio Margin + 外国股票怎么回事？ 亚洲或欧洲的每一个名字都被直接打到 100% 维持保证金，毫无道理。 只是因为隔夜风险？ 你明明在做纯多头，却比短期美股期权还糟。
英文原文
Uh... what's with $IBKR + Portfolio Margin + Foreign Stocks? Every single name in Asia or Europe gets slapped to 100% maintenance margin for no reason. Just because something isn't in the US like in Korea, Europe, or Japan doesn't make it a toxic asset? Do you guys just use prime brokers or something to get around this?
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机构会慢慢吸筹再提示散户
这是真的。 我在 $SOI 还在 40 美元时点出来后，银行分析师里有几个人就开始阴阳怪气，之后它又涨了 125%。 $SIVE 也是一样，它已经涨了几百个百分点，而且还在继续涨。 但这些机构最后又会在 $IQE 到 $AXTI 这些名字上买回去。 通常机构会在几个月里悄悄吸筹，不抬价格，同时从散户手里拿走流通盘。 然后等涨很多了、自己已经持有公司 5% 之后，再回头告诉散户。 但如果市场更快地把这些因素定价进去，机构就只能在更高的位置买。 这本质上就是在超周期标的上抢跑机构。
英文原文
This is true. A few of bank analysts got passive aggressive when I called out $SOI back at $40 and it rose 125% since then. Same with $SIVE and it’s risen a few hundred percent (and keeps going up) But these same institutions are the one buying afterward on $IQE to $AXTI. Usually institutions have silent accumulation periods blocks over months to not raise the price + accumulate the float off retail. Then tell retail investors after it’s risen a lot and they own 5% of the company. But if markets price that in a lot faster, institutions are forced to buy a lot higher. Which is basically frontrunning institutions on supercycle names.
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大回调只是图上的小波纹
一个大幅回调在整体走势图里看起来只是一个小小的波纹，这一点其实挺说明问题的。 这说明 “Serenity Stocks” 随时间的表现会怎样？ 除此之外，我开始觉得大家对预期定得太高了。 现在如果 $SOI 或 $HPS.A 不是每天涨 10%，大家就会失望。可在以前，年化 15% 回报都已经算很好了。 这种回调从拉远看其实很正常，哪怕它们有些还是美国媒体自己造成的。 通常如果某样东西是多年光学超级周期的核心组件……或者像变压器/开关设备那样积压了好几年。 晚上睡觉会轻松很多。
英文原文
The fact that a large correction looks like a little blip in the overall charts. Is pretty telling for how “Serenity Stocks” performs over time? That aside, I’m starting to think everyone’s expectations are too high. Now if $SOI or $HPS.A are not up 10% a day people are sad. Before 15% return a year was considered very good. Corrections like these are normal if you zoom out, even if they’re self-inflicted by US media. Usually if something is a core component in a multi year optical supercycle… Or are backlogged by multiple years for transformers/switchgear. It’s a lot easier to sleep at night.
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高波动需要自己有 conviction
很高兴你对 Serenity Stocks™ 也是这种看法。 我通常会偏爱高波动的名字，所以自己有 conviction 非常重要。我只是把思路讲出来，帮助其他人走到类似的结论！ 如果它们在回调里表现还不错，那就说明在正面的宏观环境下，它们只会表现得更好。
英文原文
Glad to hear that about the Serenity Stocks™. I usually like the ones with high volatility, so it’s important to have conviction yourself. I just provide the thought process to help others arrive at a similar conclusion! If they’re doing relatively well in corrections, that just means in positive macro environments, they’ll outperform even more.
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最蠢的抛售理由
这大概是我见过最蠢的抛售理由了……有人居然能给出来？ 我 99% 确定，像 $AAOI 或 $TSEM 这种名字根本不会在乎 OpenAI 目标被内部泄露一次这类事情。 但算法一看到这种主流媒体叙事就会嗨起来。 这就是为什么现在没人再完全相信它们能准确报道的完美例子。 不过话说回来，回调总是健康的，能让后面走出更高的新高。
英文原文
This has gotta be the dumbest selloff reason… someone could have provided? I am 99% sure names like $AAOI or $TSEM couldn’t care less about one internal leak of OpenAI’s high flying goals. But algorithms go reeee when they see mainstream media narratives like this. Perfect example on why nobody trusts them anymore for fully accurate reporting. That being said, corrections are always healthy to make higher highs.
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更看重基本面胜过宏观
@Muraum_ 对，我对宏观环境很敏感，尤其是降息概率这些东西。 但我还是更倾向于关注基本面，因为除非供应链里真的出现了有本质破坏性的事情，否则基本面通常跑赢宏观。 例如…… https://t.co/FhrwhfgMk8
英文原文
@Muraum_ Oh yeah I'm acutely aware of macro environment, especially rate cut odds and such. But i try and focus more on fundamentals more since they outperform macro unless there's something genuinely disruptive in supply chains. eg. https://t.co/FhrwhfgMk8
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别追高，去找下一轮卡点
这要看情况，这些都是最近才发生的新闻。 如果你不想在当前媒体周期里追高，最干净的做法就是去预测下一轮，比如 CPO 或先进封装。 像 $AMKR、$ASE 已经涨了不少，但台湾还有一些更微妙的名字，比如 PCL 或 Shunsin，其实还没怎么涨。 还是得看具体名字！
英文原文
It depends, this is all recent news. The most cleanest way if you don't want to FOMO in current media cycles is predicting the next one, in CPO or in advanced packaging. Things like $AMKR, $ASE have rallied quite a bit but there's some nuanced names in TW like PCL or Shunsin that haven't really rallied much. Depends on the name!
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看前瞻，而不是看过去
@Qlarividencia 这甚至不只是有没有胆量的问题。更简单地说，是你到底在想未来，还是在想过去。 不过还是得尊重 DNB，因为他们是在看市场的前瞻性变化。
英文原文
@Qlarividencia It's not even having the guts. It's as simple as thinking about the future, not the past. But all the respect to DNB for looking at forward shifts in the market.