方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 663 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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提醒大家别忽略 SEC 文件和封闭式基金结构
问题在于，很多散户根本不读 SEC 文件。 更别说理解封闭式基金里的 NAV 差异和流通盘动态…… 所以他们可能以为自己是在按当前价格买 Figure，实际上买到的可能是 5 倍以上的另一种价格，而你还在承受 20 亿美元的稀释。
英文原文
@dweltrowskik The issue is not many retail investors read SEC filings. Let alone know the NAV difference + float dynamics with closed end funds… So they might just think they’re buying Figure at current prices. Rather than 5x+ current ones. While you’re getting diluted $2B
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强调前瞻跟踪比看 13F 更有用
我不太明白为什么大家要把 13F 文件看得那么深，而很多对冲基金在像 $JBL、$LITE 这些名字上都已经慢半拍了。 最好的收益来自在机构意识到下一个 $SNDK 之前就先买进去。 不是等他们在 3 个月后披露完再跟。
英文原文
I'm not sure why people look at 13F filings so deeply when all the hedge funds are super behind on names like $JBL, $LITE and others. The most returns come from frontrunning institutions before they figure out the next $SNDK. Not following them 3 months after they file.
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回答“是否只能做多”的问题：关键是选对股票
@Matrix_B0SS 当然可以只做多？只要选对股票就行，哈哈。 https://t.co/Tom6pz8ROO
英文原文
@Matrix_B0SS Yes it’s possible long only? Just need to choose the right stocks lol https://t.co/Tom6pz8ROO
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认为 MicroLED 对短期光电敞口没有吸引力
在我看来，未来一年里任何 MicroLED 都是在为 CPO / photonics 曝险浪费资本。 像 ams-OSRAM、AUO、Ennostar、Tyntek、PlayNitride 这些名字。 如果它们真能起量，量产大概率也要到 2028 年下半年或者 2029 年上半年。 你还不如把它们当作别的业务线来看。
英文原文
IMO anything MicroLED is a waste of capital for CPO/photonics exposure over the next year. Names like ams-OSRAM/AUO/Ennostar/Tyntek/PlayNitride, etc. Any volume shipments would probably be H2 2028 or H1 2029 if it even takes off from development stage. You're better looking at them for their other business segments.
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强调散户在不少标的上比机构更早
@Jglad011 这些名字里，散户很多时候确实比机构更早。尤其是多亏了 X。
英文原文
@Jglad011 Retail was earlier than institutions on many of these. Especially thanks to X.
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说明自己很难把复杂技术细节讲得完整
@PhotonCap 谢谢。有时候在这么技术密集的领域里，要把所有细微差别都讲清楚确实很难，尤其是我自己到底看到了什么。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Thanks. Sometimes it’s hard to get all the nuances across in a really technically dense field, in terms of what I’m personally seeing.
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列出市场回调时的加仓和定投思路
嗯，如果是我来做的话： -> 今天回调时重仓加 Foci / Nextronics / Shunsin。 -> 定投 MSScorps、Sivers、Furukawa Electric、Browave，因为这些波动都很大。 -> 也可以小量加一些像 PCL、All Ring（6187）这样的敞口。 Soitec 可能要等更大一点的回调。
英文原文
Hmm. If I were to do it -> Foci/Nextronics/Shunsin heavy add today on the drop. -> DCA MSScorps, Sivers, Furukawa Electric, Browave since those are very volatile -> Throw in a few ones like PCL, All Ring (6187) for exposure, but light. Maybe wait for a larger drop on Soitec.
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说 SIVE 业绩的关键在量产和客户进展
$SIVE 的业绩结果其实不重要，我看不出财务上有什么风险，最多就是媒体平常爱制造恐慌。 像我以前对 $AAOI / $AEHR 一样，现在主要该看的指标是 2027 年以后的激光量产。 如果有 Win Semi 产能锁定，那就会很利好。 或者如果 Ayar、Jabil 和其他客户出现量产，那也是利好。 任何关于新增 hyperscaler 供应商的备注，都会是利好。
英文原文
$SIVE earning results don't matter, I don't see risks in financials other than your usual media trying to cause panic. Main indicators to look at like I've done before with $AAOI / $AEHR. Are around laser volume production going forward in 2027. Maybe anything around Win Semi capacity lock would be bullish. Or Ayar, Jabil, and other customer volume production. Any added note around new hyperscaler suppliers would be bullish.
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强调要在周期底部拿到完整超级周期
市场会提前 8 到 12 个月定价。 我喜欢在最底部找机会，然后完整吃到超级周期暴露，比如 $AXTI、$SIVE、$IQE、$SOI、$LITE、$AAOI 这些。 否则如果某样东西已经被定价了，你是拿不到 10 倍回报的。要是某公司要到 2028 才完全放量，而它在 2026 上半年还是从 0 开始，市场会从 H2 开始一路把它定价到 2028 之后，随着产量爬坡继续往上走。
英文原文
Markets are forward looking by 8-12 months. I like to find plays at the very bottom and capture full supercycle exposure like $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, $SOI, $LITE, $AAOI, etc. Otherwise you won't get 10x returns if something is already priced in. If something fully scales 2028, and starts from 0 in H1 2026. Markets will start pricing in the company all the way past 2028, H2 onward as production ramps.
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用 napkin math 算 Nextronics 的 CPO 价值
所以这是我在做多 Nextronics（8147）时做的便签纸计算。 他们是 $NVDA 的 CPO 供应商，供应 CPO connectors 和 cage thermal modules。 我按 2028 年的前瞻市盈率大概算了 2 倍，这也是我认为它有望在 2028 年重估到约 20 亿美元以上市值、具有很强风险回报的原因。 只看它的 CPO 暴露： -> CPO connector 大概 15 到 25 美元 -> ELS thermal cages 估计约 50 美元 每个 switch 18 个单元：18x50 = 900 美元 CPO Connectors：每个 switch 72 个 optical engines，72 x 15 = 1080 美元 （如果 $NVDA 扩到 Spectrum-X switch，这个数会到 1920 美元） Total Nextronics Content：大约 1980 美元（保守算成 2000 美元） 这意味着 BOM 只占 rack 的 0.08%，大概只占 switch 的 1.5%。 机构眼里这太小了，所以大概率被忽略。 但对 Nextronics 这家约 2 亿美元的公司来说，这很重要吗？ 当然，绝对很重要。 我算的时候把 Nextronics 在 Nvidia connector/cage 市场的份额打了 50% 折扣，因为存在多供应商。 并且我用的是 GS 的预测，再假设 $AVGO、$MRVL、ASIC CPO 生态的规模只有 $NVDA 的 30%。 净利润率：22.4%（GM 38% 时）到 24.0%（GM 40% 时）。 但如果按其他预测，只看 rack shipment： 2026：CPO revenue 约 1010 万，净利润（22.4%）约 226 万 + 基础业务 1250 万 = 1470 万（540k 单元是 connectors，40k 单元是 cage，且已除以 50%） 2027：CPO revenue 约 1.72 亿，净利润（22.4%）约 3853 万 = 5103 万（约 800 万单元 connectors，103 万单元 cage） 2028 scale up 扩张：CPO revenue 约 4.5 亿，净利润约 1.0093 亿，基础业务约 1130 万（约 4000 万单元 connectors，298 万单元 cages，例如 Nvidia ELS 量是 1990 万） 所以前瞻市盈率大概是 2026 年 15.4 倍，2027 年 4.45 倍，2028 年 2 倍。 当然，放量后综合毛利可能会下降，也可能会有别的玩家把份额稀释到 25% 左右，预测也可能比 GS 更高或更低。 但不管怎样，哪怕我偏差 50%，这仍然极具不对称性。 2028 年通常是 CPO 玩家大重估的一年，2026 年其实还很早。 希望我算得对，但 20x 的前瞻市盈率会对应 22.6 亿美元市值。 即便我们把： -> 市占率降到 15%。 -> 净利润率压到 14%。 -> connector ASP 降到 10 美元。 按 20x 倍数，股价仍然能有大约 4.5 倍回报，市值超过 10 亿美元。 我们走着看吧。（NFA，只是投机性财务建模）
英文原文
So here's the napkin math I did on Nextronics (8147) when I went long. They're the $NVDA CPO supplier for CPO connectors and cage thermal modules. And I modeled around 2 FWD p/e for 2028, which is why I think risk-reward is very compelling for a potential 10x rerating to ~$2B+ MC in 2028. Just for their CPO exposure: -> CPO connector runs roughly $15 to $25 -> ELS thermal cages, maybe ~$50 from est. 18 units per switch: 18x50 = ~$900 CPO Connectors: 72 Optical Engines per switch 72 x $15 = $1,080 (If $NVDA scales their Spectrum-X switch, it goes to $1,920 for CPO connectors). Total Nextronics Content: ~$1,980 (rounded to $2k for calculations) in conservative case. Implied BOM % of rack: 0.08%. Maybe ~1.5% of switch. This looks microscopic to institutions so it probably is ignored. Is it material to Nextronics, a ~$200m company? Yes, absolute massive. For calculations: Applying 50% haircut to Nextronics' share of the Nvidia connector market/cage market because of multi-source. And I’m using GS projections, and assuming $AVGO, $MRVL, ASIC CPO ecosystem is 30% size of $NVDA. Net Income Margin: 22.4% (at 38% GM)- 24.0% (at 40% GM). But going off other projections from just, a rack shipments: 2026: CPO revenue ~10.1M, net income (22.4%) ~2.26M + $12.5M base = $14.7M (540k units for connectors, cage, 40K units, already divided by 50%) 2027: CPO revenue: ~$172M, net income (22.4%): ~$38.53M = $51.03M (~8M units for connectors, ~1.03M units for cage) 2028 scale up expansion: CPO revenue: $450m, net income: $100.93M, ~$11.3M base (~40M units for connectors, 2.98M unit for cages, eg. Nvidia ELS volume is 19.9M) So implied fwd p/e 15.4x for 2026, 4.45x for 2027, 2x for 2028. Of course at scale, blended margins might go down, there might be other players bringing market share down to like 25%, etc. and projections might be more or less than GS. But regardless seems highly asymmetrical even if I'm off by a whole 50%. 2028 is usually the massive re-rating for CPO players, 2026 is still really early. Hope my math is right, but 20x fwd p/e multiple would be $2.26B MC. Even if we drop: -> market share to just 15%. -> compress their net income margin down to 14%. -> connector ASP to $10. At a 20x multiple, the stock would still achieve a ~4.5x return to a $1B+ market cap. We'll see if this is right or not. (NFA, just speculative financial modeling)
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说明自己会做估值建模但不细讲
@AtlasShrug1 @VidianOnXX 我其实会做估值分析，也会给每个持仓自己建模前瞻 P/E。 只是我不会分享太多技术细节，因为我会把这些帖子保持在一个更容易让普通读者消化的高层级。
英文原文
@AtlasShrug1 @VidianOnXX I actually do valuation analysis and model my own fwd P/E ratios for every name I long. I just don’t share a lot of technical details since I keep these posts high level to make it more digestible for regular readers.
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解释自己先选主题再选最优标的
我会先选一个我极度看好的主题，然后再挑最值得做多的玩家。 未来两年最大上行主题是 CPO，我对这个判断非常有信心。 我觉得 memory 处在超级周期尾段，回报可能少一些，但仍然不错。 长期 5 年以上则是 space 和 humanoids。 中间也有一些小机会，比如未来 6 个月的 glass substrate 转换，像 $LPK。
英文原文
I pick a theme I’m extraordinarily bullish on, then I pick the most compelling players to long. The largest upside theme is CPO over the next two years, I have extraordinarily high confidence in that statement. I think memory is tail end of supercycle where returns are probably less but still compelling. Long term 5+ years it’s space and humanoids. There’s little trades in between like glass substrate shifts with $LPK over next 6 months.
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寻求人形机器人早期纯正标的，2年内10倍潜力
好了各位。我需要一些关于人形机器人敞口的早期$RKLB equivalents（类早期Rocket Lab标的）的想法。未来2年内10倍+的潜在回报，且比$TSLA更纯正的人形机器人相关敞口。你们最好的想法是什么？
英文原文
All right chat. I need some more ideas on the early $RKLB equivalent for humanoid exposure. 10x+ potential returns only in the next 2 years and more pure play exposure than $TSLA. What’s your best ideas?
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解释设计/IP 型公司人手少是正常的
好问题！$SIVE 这种做 IP / design 的公司，员工数量没那么重要。 很多媒体在和 $COHR 这种需要成千上万人做组装的公司对比时，忽略了其中的差异。 $SIVE 把设计交给 Win Semi / $GFS 去生产，这也是我更喜欢这种模式的原因之一，因为在它们真正形成可观收入、再去做纵向整合之前，这样能大幅降低 capex 和稀释风险。 从美国视角看，我个人把这看成优点：保持轻资产和可扩展性。
英文原文
Hey great question! So $SIVE headcount doesn't matter as much when you're doing IP/design. Lot of media misunderstand nuances, when they compare it with $COHR that have tens of thousands of people... which are required for assembly. $SIVE ships their designs off to Win Semi / $GFS which handles all the production. Which is why I liked this model a lot more since it reduces a lot of capex and dilution risk until they make material revenue to vertically integrate. I personally see it as a plus, keeping things lean and scalable from an American perspective.
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强调要看财报而不是只看短线图形
我真的就是在分析财报，而不是看图。 去看财报后几分钟的股价反应来判断正负，其实很蠢。 像 $AAOI、$AEHR，或者我最近看过的任何单个财报，财报刚出来之后发生了什么都不重要，除非你是在做周度期权交易。 如果它跌了，但实际上结构上是正面的，那反而会成为买点，就像 $AAOI 那样。
英文原文
I'm literally analyzing earnings, not the chart. Looking at reactions shortly after to see if it's positive/negative is stupid. As seen with $AAOI, $AEHR or any single earnings I've looked at recently, it doesn't matter what happens right after unless you're weekly option trading. And if it drops, while it's actually structurally positive, then that's a buying opportunity as seen with $AAOI.
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学会真正分析财报，而不是只看图
学会真正分析财报，是个很好的教训。 而不是财报后立刻只看图。 $AAOI 自从财报跌到 139 美元后已经涨了 25.18%，今天又涨了 16.09%。 https://t.co/mP1Yqq5b1A
英文原文
It’s a good lesson to learn how to actually analyze earnings reports. Rather than looking at the chart right afterward. $AAOI up 25.18% since ER drop to $139… and +16.09% today. https://t.co/mP1Yqq5b1A
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认为市场整体是正和博弈，没必要藏信息
谢谢！如果你不碰期权，市场总体上就是正和的，没必要把信息 gatekeep 起来。 感觉散户长期以来都被机构收割得挺惨，而 X 是比看那些低得离谱、-60% 的 PT 更适合散户消化新观点的平台。
英文原文
Thanks! Markets are generally positive sum if you're not touching options, no reason to gatekeep any information. Feels like retail investors have been kinda shafted quite a long time by institutions and X is the perfect platform for retail to digest new opinions than reading lowball -60% PTs while institutions secretly buy.
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承诺稍后补做 Nextronics 的更深入尽调
@Xecvvv 当然，我稍后会再做一篇关于 Nextronics 的更深度尽调。 我现在只是先抛出一个跟着 GS 供应商名单走的初始想法。 大家还是应该自己研究，我只是想先点出一个可以自己去看的有趣名字。
英文原文
@Xecvvv Of course, I’ll do a follow up on with more DD on Nextronics in a bit. Just throwing out the initial idea tagging along GS suppliers. People should do their own research, just wanted to spotlight an interesting name people can look at on their own.
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投资过早易被套，应等技术量產前夕再入场
有前景...但说到实际盈利：玻璃/硅光子学是2026-2029年下半年的即期事件。东曹(Tosoh)提到的塑料光学器件和电缆，时间线看起来要到2029年以后才准确。最好是等到即将进入量產爬坡阶段再进场，就像$SIVE或$AEHR那样。感觉总体而言，过早做多量子点、microLED和塑料光学器件...下次回调时可能会停滞一年。关键在于你要找到时间表大幅提前的迹象（CPO就提前了），那才是alpha。但塑料光缆这事最好留到一年半以后，比如2028年上半年再说。
英文原文
Promising… but for actually making returns: Things like Glass/Silicon Photonics is an immediate H2 2026-2029 event. 2029+ timeline seems accurate for plastic optics and cables cited by Tosoh. Better to wait until it’s about to hit volume ramp as seen with $SIVE or $AEHR. Feel like in general, going long on quantum dot, microled, and plastic way too early on… might just end up stalling out for a year in the next correction? The nuance is you find any indicators timelines have been pushed up a lot (CPO got pushed up), then that’s alpha. But it’s something to save for a year and a half later like H1 2028 for plastic optical cables.
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回看自己对 InP 瓶颈时间点的判断
@Deebeeng10 太好了！我自己都不敢相信，我竟然把 InP substrate 何时会卡瓶颈的中期 2026 时间点都猜中了，哈哈。
英文原文
@Deebeeng10 Glad to hear! I can’t believe I even guess the mid 2026 timelines on when InP substrates would be bottlenecked lol
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说明很多持仓是 IBKR 代表的综合账户
@kxshxl 很多都是 omnibus 账户，代表像 $IBKR 这种散户 / 机构混合资金池持有。 从一些名字你也能看出来，里面更偏散户。 但像 Goldman Sachs 这种就是机构。
英文原文
@kxshxl A lot of them are omnibus and held on behalf of pools of retail/institution like $IBKR. You can kinda guess from some of them that it skews toward retail. But names like Goldman Sachs are institutional.
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认为多年份瓶颈比炒作型故事更强
我现在已经没人能说服我 $SNDK 不是一只 meme stock。 但正如我之前说的，像 $HPS.A 或 $LITE 这种有多年可见度的瓶颈型名字，通常表现会更好。 https://t.co/WkjoG1jIYu
英文原文
Nobody can convince me $SNDK isn’t a meme stock at this point. But as I’ve said, bottlenecks with multi-year visibility like $HPS.A or $LITE tend to perform better. https://t.co/WkjoG1jIYu
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观察到机构总在 thesis 后几周才跟进
我注意到，通常在我发 thesis 后 4 到 6 周…… 就会有一批机构开始买像 $AXTI、$SOI 或 $IQE 这样的名字。 我不确定这是纯粹巧合，还是他们在看我的帖子，然后需要一些时间做尽调？ https://t.co/jwCXyl9mb6
英文原文
I've noticed that it's always like 4-6 weeks after my thesis post... That a bunch of institution start buying up names like $AXTI, $SOI, or $IQE. I'm not sure if it's just luck with timing. Or if they're reading my posts and need time for DD? https://t.co/jwCXyl9mb6
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认为算法只看营收和新闻情绪
@DanilSer33 这是算法化的，因为它们看不懂很多 hyperscaler 映射。 它们大概只会看 TTM 营收和新闻里的情绪分析。
英文原文
@DanilSer33 It's algorithmic since they're blind to a lot of the hyperscaler mapping. And probably only see TTM revenue and sentiment analysis off news.
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估计 CPO scale up 在 2027 下半年
大概 H2 2027 才是 CPO scale up，那是最大的市场机会。 市场通常会提前 8 到 12 个月开始定价。 CPO scale out 会在今年下半年开始。1.6T pluggable bridge 大概在 2027 上半年到下半年之间发生（$SIVE 和 $JBL 有一个相关链条）。 所以在 2027 年后半段的大超级周期之前，会先有逐步的量产爬坡。
英文原文
Probably H2 2027 for scale up CPO, which is the biggest market opportunity. Markets usually start pricing things in 8-12 months in advance. CPO scale out is H2 this year. 1.6T pluggable bridge happens around H1-H2 2027 (Sivers has one with $JBL) So there's incremental volume ramp leading to the major supercycle later part of 2027.
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说自己更愿意持有周期型设备股到 H2 2027
对我来说，大概会持有到 2027 年下半年开始。 我不喜欢长期持有像 $ASML、$AIXA、甚至 $TOWA 这种设备卖方。 垄断通常是例外，因为它们能保住估值，还能继续上行。 但大多数时候，它们主要吃的是周期的开始和中段，之后就会在下一轮周期前回落。现在通常是进入 GCS 爆发前的好时点。
英文原文
For me, probably until start of H2 2027. I don't like long term holding equipment sellers like $ASML, $AIXA, even $TOWA etc.. Monopolies are usually exceptions since they retain valuations + keep going higher. But they mainly benefit from the start-middle of cycles, then fall off until the next cycle begins. But now's usually a good time before the GCS ramp.
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强调超级周期要看 8 到 12 个月前瞻
市场其实不会把过去 12 个月的收入完整计入超级周期。通常会看前 8 到 12 个月。 不过，CPO 可能是我见过和这些公司市值相关性最大的超级周期。 所以我愿意花几个月时间，在最底部提前抢跑机构，去押这个最大的架构变化。中间会有 revenue bridge，但 scale up CPO 的量产爬坡就是会非常陡。
英文原文
Markets don't really price in previous 12M revenue for supercycles. Usually look 8-12 months ahead. However, CPO is probably the biggest Supercycle I've ever seen related to the MC of many of these companies. This is why I'm willing to spend few months waiting to frontrun institutions on the biggest architectural change at the very bottom. There's revenue bridges in between but scale up CPO is just parabolic volume ramp.
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把研发阶段时间线拆成产品到量产的路径
@CM_X_CM 老哥，这就是我说的研发阶段。 2026 年 Q4 “产品准备好” 然后进入 sampling，6 到 12 个月（也许到 2027 年 Q3） 然后进入 qualification，6 到 18 个月（也许到 2028 年 Q2） 然后再扩供应链 -> 量产（2029）
英文原文
@CM_X_CM Bro this is literally what I mean by R&D phase. Q4 2026 "product ready" Then they go into sampling, 6-12M (maybe Q3 2027) Then they go into qualification 6-18M (maybe Q2 2028) Then they build out supply chains -> volume ramp (2029)
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用图形化方式理解 CPO 的增长曲线
只是给视觉型学习者看一下 CPO： 这就是 GS + $LITE 财报确认下的 CPO 市场增长曲线。 有些名字和 CPO 的高 beta 相关性非常强。 也许……在超级周期最开始或中段时，去复制那些“橙皮”命名的公司，比如 $AAOI 到 $SNDK，再去做空别的名字，可能不是好主意。 尤其如果你是散户，人在欧洲，而且只看过去 12 个月的收入，而不是前瞻成长。
英文原文
Just for the visual learners about CPO: This is what the CPO market growth looks like from GS + $LITE transcript confirmations. There's certain names that are very high-beta correlated to CPO. Maybe... not the best idea to copy firms named after Orange Peels on $AAOI to $SNDK to short names. At the very beginning or middle of supercycles? Especially if you're retail, live in Europe, and only look at last 12 months revenue instead of forward growth.
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@marv_jones6 第 1 是 CPO，第 2 还是 CPO，第 3 也是 CPO，第 4 是 HBM4，第 5 是玻璃基板。
英文原文
@marv_jones6 #1 CPO #2 CPO #3 CPO #4 HBM4 #5 glass substrates