方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 651 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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寻求人形机器人早期纯正标的，2年内10倍潜力
好了各位。我需要一些关于人形机器人敞口的早期$RKLB equivalents（类早期Rocket Lab标的）的想法。未来2年内10倍+的潜在回报，且比$TSLA更纯正的人形机器人相关敞口。你们最好的想法是什么？
英文原文
All right chat. I need some more ideas on the early $RKLB equivalent for humanoid exposure. 10x+ potential returns only in the next 2 years and more pure play exposure than $TSLA. What’s your best ideas?
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解释设计/IP 型公司人手少是正常的
好问题！$SIVE 这种做 IP / design 的公司，员工数量没那么重要。 很多媒体在和 $COHR 这种需要成千上万人做组装的公司对比时，忽略了其中的差异。 $SIVE 把设计交给 Win Semi / $GFS 去生产，这也是我更喜欢这种模式的原因之一，因为在它们真正形成可观收入、再去做纵向整合之前，这样能大幅降低 capex 和稀释风险。 从美国视角看，我个人把这看成优点：保持轻资产和可扩展性。
英文原文
Hey great question! So $SIVE headcount doesn't matter as much when you're doing IP/design. Lot of media misunderstand nuances, when they compare it with $COHR that have tens of thousands of people... which are required for assembly. $SIVE ships their designs off to Win Semi / $GFS which handles all the production. Which is why I liked this model a lot more since it reduces a lot of capex and dilution risk until they make material revenue to vertically integrate. I personally see it as a plus, keeping things lean and scalable from an American perspective.
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强调要看财报而不是只看短线图形
我真的就是在分析财报，而不是看图。 去看财报后几分钟的股价反应来判断正负，其实很蠢。 像 $AAOI、$AEHR，或者我最近看过的任何单个财报，财报刚出来之后发生了什么都不重要，除非你是在做周度期权交易。 如果它跌了，但实际上结构上是正面的，那反而会成为买点，就像 $AAOI 那样。
英文原文
I'm literally analyzing earnings, not the chart. Looking at reactions shortly after to see if it's positive/negative is stupid. As seen with $AAOI, $AEHR or any single earnings I've looked at recently, it doesn't matter what happens right after unless you're weekly option trading. And if it drops, while it's actually structurally positive, then that's a buying opportunity as seen with $AAOI.
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学会真正分析财报，而不是只看图
学会真正分析财报，是个很好的教训。 而不是财报后立刻只看图。 $AAOI 自从财报跌到 139 美元后已经涨了 25.18%，今天又涨了 16.09%。 https://t.co/mP1Yqq5b1A
英文原文
It’s a good lesson to learn how to actually analyze earnings reports. Rather than looking at the chart right afterward. $AAOI up 25.18% since ER drop to $139… and +16.09% today. https://t.co/mP1Yqq5b1A
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认为市场整体是正和博弈，没必要藏信息
谢谢！如果你不碰期权，市场总体上就是正和的，没必要把信息 gatekeep 起来。 感觉散户长期以来都被机构收割得挺惨，而 X 是比看那些低得离谱、-60% 的 PT 更适合散户消化新观点的平台。
英文原文
Thanks! Markets are generally positive sum if you're not touching options, no reason to gatekeep any information. Feels like retail investors have been kinda shafted quite a long time by institutions and X is the perfect platform for retail to digest new opinions than reading lowball -60% PTs while institutions secretly buy.
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承诺稍后补做 Nextronics 的更深入尽调
@Xecvvv 当然，我稍后会再做一篇关于 Nextronics 的更深度尽调。 我现在只是先抛出一个跟着 GS 供应商名单走的初始想法。 大家还是应该自己研究，我只是想先点出一个可以自己去看的有趣名字。
英文原文
@Xecvvv Of course, I’ll do a follow up on with more DD on Nextronics in a bit. Just throwing out the initial idea tagging along GS suppliers. People should do their own research, just wanted to spotlight an interesting name people can look at on their own.
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投资过早易被套，应等技术量產前夕再入场
有前景...但说到实际盈利：玻璃/硅光子学是2026-2029年下半年的即期事件。东曹(Tosoh)提到的塑料光学器件和电缆，时间线看起来要到2029年以后才准确。最好是等到即将进入量產爬坡阶段再进场，就像$SIVE或$AEHR那样。感觉总体而言，过早做多量子点、microLED和塑料光学器件...下次回调时可能会停滞一年。关键在于你要找到时间表大幅提前的迹象（CPO就提前了），那才是alpha。但塑料光缆这事最好留到一年半以后，比如2028年上半年再说。
英文原文
Promising… but for actually making returns: Things like Glass/Silicon Photonics is an immediate H2 2026-2029 event. 2029+ timeline seems accurate for plastic optics and cables cited by Tosoh. Better to wait until it’s about to hit volume ramp as seen with $SIVE or $AEHR. Feel like in general, going long on quantum dot, microled, and plastic way too early on… might just end up stalling out for a year in the next correction? The nuance is you find any indicators timelines have been pushed up a lot (CPO got pushed up), then that’s alpha. But it’s something to save for a year and a half later like H1 2028 for plastic optical cables.
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回看自己对 InP 瓶颈时间点的判断
@Deebeeng10 太好了！我自己都不敢相信，我竟然把 InP substrate 何时会卡瓶颈的中期 2026 时间点都猜中了，哈哈。
英文原文
@Deebeeng10 Glad to hear! I can’t believe I even guess the mid 2026 timelines on when InP substrates would be bottlenecked lol
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说明很多持仓是 IBKR 代表的综合账户
@kxshxl 很多都是 omnibus 账户，代表像 $IBKR 这种散户 / 机构混合资金池持有。 从一些名字你也能看出来，里面更偏散户。 但像 Goldman Sachs 这种就是机构。
英文原文
@kxshxl A lot of them are omnibus and held on behalf of pools of retail/institution like $IBKR. You can kinda guess from some of them that it skews toward retail. But names like Goldman Sachs are institutional.
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认为多年份瓶颈比炒作型故事更强
我现在已经没人能说服我 $SNDK 不是一只 meme stock。 但正如我之前说的，像 $HPS.A 或 $LITE 这种有多年可见度的瓶颈型名字，通常表现会更好。 https://t.co/WkjoG1jIYu
英文原文
Nobody can convince me $SNDK isn’t a meme stock at this point. But as I’ve said, bottlenecks with multi-year visibility like $HPS.A or $LITE tend to perform better. https://t.co/WkjoG1jIYu
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观察到机构总在 thesis 后几周才跟进
我注意到，通常在我发 thesis 后 4 到 6 周…… 就会有一批机构开始买像 $AXTI、$SOI 或 $IQE 这样的名字。 我不确定这是纯粹巧合，还是他们在看我的帖子，然后需要一些时间做尽调？ https://t.co/jwCXyl9mb6
英文原文
I've noticed that it's always like 4-6 weeks after my thesis post... That a bunch of institution start buying up names like $AXTI, $SOI, or $IQE. I'm not sure if it's just luck with timing. Or if they're reading my posts and need time for DD? https://t.co/jwCXyl9mb6
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认为算法只看营收和新闻情绪
@DanilSer33 这是算法化的，因为它们看不懂很多 hyperscaler 映射。 它们大概只会看 TTM 营收和新闻里的情绪分析。
英文原文
@DanilSer33 It's algorithmic since they're blind to a lot of the hyperscaler mapping. And probably only see TTM revenue and sentiment analysis off news.
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估计 CPO scale up 在 2027 下半年
大概 H2 2027 才是 CPO scale up，那是最大的市场机会。 市场通常会提前 8 到 12 个月开始定价。 CPO scale out 会在今年下半年开始。1.6T pluggable bridge 大概在 2027 上半年到下半年之间发生（$SIVE 和 $JBL 有一个相关链条）。 所以在 2027 年后半段的大超级周期之前，会先有逐步的量产爬坡。
英文原文
Probably H2 2027 for scale up CPO, which is the biggest market opportunity. Markets usually start pricing things in 8-12 months in advance. CPO scale out is H2 this year. 1.6T pluggable bridge happens around H1-H2 2027 (Sivers has one with $JBL) So there's incremental volume ramp leading to the major supercycle later part of 2027.
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说自己更愿意持有周期型设备股到 H2 2027
对我来说，大概会持有到 2027 年下半年开始。 我不喜欢长期持有像 $ASML、$AIXA、甚至 $TOWA 这种设备卖方。 垄断通常是例外，因为它们能保住估值，还能继续上行。 但大多数时候，它们主要吃的是周期的开始和中段，之后就会在下一轮周期前回落。现在通常是进入 GCS 爆发前的好时点。
英文原文
For me, probably until start of H2 2027. I don't like long term holding equipment sellers like $ASML, $AIXA, even $TOWA etc.. Monopolies are usually exceptions since they retain valuations + keep going higher. But they mainly benefit from the start-middle of cycles, then fall off until the next cycle begins. But now's usually a good time before the GCS ramp.
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强调超级周期要看 8 到 12 个月前瞻
市场其实不会把过去 12 个月的收入完整计入超级周期。通常会看前 8 到 12 个月。 不过，CPO 可能是我见过和这些公司市值相关性最大的超级周期。 所以我愿意花几个月时间，在最底部提前抢跑机构，去押这个最大的架构变化。中间会有 revenue bridge，但 scale up CPO 的量产爬坡就是会非常陡。
英文原文
Markets don't really price in previous 12M revenue for supercycles. Usually look 8-12 months ahead. However, CPO is probably the biggest Supercycle I've ever seen related to the MC of many of these companies. This is why I'm willing to spend few months waiting to frontrun institutions on the biggest architectural change at the very bottom. There's revenue bridges in between but scale up CPO is just parabolic volume ramp.
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把研发阶段时间线拆成产品到量产的路径
@CM_X_CM 老哥，这就是我说的研发阶段。 2026 年 Q4 “产品准备好” 然后进入 sampling，6 到 12 个月（也许到 2027 年 Q3） 然后进入 qualification，6 到 18 个月（也许到 2028 年 Q2） 然后再扩供应链 -> 量产（2029）
英文原文
@CM_X_CM Bro this is literally what I mean by R&D phase. Q4 2026 "product ready" Then they go into sampling, 6-12M (maybe Q3 2027) Then they go into qualification 6-18M (maybe Q2 2028) Then they build out supply chains -> volume ramp (2029)
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用图形化方式理解 CPO 的增长曲线
只是给视觉型学习者看一下 CPO： 这就是 GS + $LITE 财报确认下的 CPO 市场增长曲线。 有些名字和 CPO 的高 beta 相关性非常强。 也许……在超级周期最开始或中段时，去复制那些“橙皮”命名的公司，比如 $AAOI 到 $SNDK，再去做空别的名字，可能不是好主意。 尤其如果你是散户，人在欧洲，而且只看过去 12 个月的收入，而不是前瞻成长。
英文原文
Just for the visual learners about CPO: This is what the CPO market growth looks like from GS + $LITE transcript confirmations. There's certain names that are very high-beta correlated to CPO. Maybe... not the best idea to copy firms named after Orange Peels on $AAOI to $SNDK to short names. At the very beginning or middle of supercycles? Especially if you're retail, live in Europe, and only look at last 12 months revenue instead of forward growth.
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@marv_jones6 第 1 是 CPO，第 2 还是 CPO，第 3 也是 CPO，第 4 是 HBM4，第 5 是玻璃基板。
英文原文
@marv_jones6 #1 CPO #2 CPO #3 CPO #4 HBM4 #5 glass substrates
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提醒股票不会直线上涨
@amz_2077 我觉得很多人会惊讶，股票并不会只沿着直线往上走。
英文原文
@amz_2077 I think many people will be surprised to learn that stocks don’t move in a straight line up.
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强调 CPO 仍处最早期，大家都能提前布局
早？它才刚开始，大家都能提前抢跑下一轮大超级周期。 $LITE 自己都说了，CPO 存在极其严重的供需失衡，而 scale up CPO 还是它们最大的单一增长驱动，只是现在还在幼年期…… 这对 CPO 名字来说极度看多。
英文原文
Early? It's at the very beginning, and everyone gets to frontrun the next major supercycle. $LITE literally went out and said there's an incredible supply demand imbalance for CPO. And that scale up CPO is their largest single growth driver that's still at its infancy... This is incredibly bullish for CPO names.
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强调自己从未见过比 CPO 更牛的板块
再强调一次我的难以置信： 我从来没见过比 CPO 更看多的板块。 GS 把光学 TAM 从 2026 年的 150 亿美元 -> 2028 年的 1540 亿美元，增长 9 倍。 其中 CPO 就占了 910 亿美元。 从今天大约 1.64 亿美元的采样阶段（Modor 的 2026 估算）一路到 910 亿美元（GS 2028），这条曲线就是 55,000%+ 的增长。 这正是为什么算法 / 分析师会犯错，因为他们只会看这些 CPO 名字的 TTM 营收。 但接下来两年里一切都会发生在 $SIVE、Shunsin、MSSCorps、$SOI 这些名字身上。 这是在 $NVDA 推动下，从 0 到 100 的巨大架构转移。 我真的不认为散户或市场已经明白接下来会发生什么。
英文原文
Just reiterating my disbelief: I have never seen a sector more bullish than CPO. GS reported Optical TAM 9X from $15b in 2026 -> US$154b in 2028 CPO making up $91B of that. Starting from ~$164M (Modor for 2026 / sampling) to $91 Billion (GS 2028) 55,000%+ CPO growth curve starting from today This is exactly why algorithms / analysts mess up because they might look at TTM revenue at these CPO names. But everything happens in the next two years with $SIVE to Shunsin to MSSCorps to $SOI. This is Zero to 100 from a massive architectural shift pushed by $NVDA. I genuinely still don't think retail or markets understand what's coming yet.
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博主回顾过往精准预测成绩，坚信$SIVE光子学投资逻辑正确
确实...我确实预测过： $AXTI 从 $12 -> $105 $SOI 从 $43 -> $145 $TSEM 从 $110 -> $218 $AAOI 从 $30 -> $180 $IQE 从 $13 -> $46 $LITE 从 $363 -> $1000 $AEHR 从 $30 -> $85 (如果算上siph业务板块) 这些都是作为独立论点帖发布的...还有去年类似的 $COHR 和 Innolight... 我认为 $SIVE 目前是争议最大的，但我真的认为我是对的。 感觉我在光子学(photonics)领域看到了一些别人看不到的东西？
英文原文
True… I did call: $AXTI $12 -> $105 $SOI $43-> $145 $TSEM $110 -> $218 $AAOI $30 -> $180 $IQE $13 -> $46 $LITE $363 -> $1000 $AEHR $30 -> $85 (if you count siph segment) As individual thesis posts… and others like $COHR and Innolight last year… I think $SIVE is the most debated right now, but I do think I’m right. Feels like I’m seeing something others don’t with photonics?
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再次强调 CPO TAM 扩张过于夸张
GS 已经把 CPO 超级周期画成了不正常的 9 倍 TAM 预期。 从 2026 年的 150 亿美元到 2028 年的 1540 亿美元，其中 CPO 占 910 亿美元。 这就是为什么我对这类名字这么看多。
英文原文
GS has mapped out the CPO supercycle with unholy projections of 9x TAM projections. From $15B to $154B in a short timeframe. CPO contributing $91B. This is why I’m so bullish on $SIVE as one of bleeding edge CPO laser suppliers. Reminds me of the horse Golden Tempo. But for lasers. Still a small $1.5B MC, while all the others are tens of billions.
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强调 CPO 还非常早，自己在帮散户抢跑机构
@tw_crypto_ 这对 CPO 来说真的非常早。 我只是喜欢在机构之前，最开始的时候帮散户找到下一个超级周期。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ This is extremely early for CPO. I just help retail find the next supercycles at the very beginning before institutions do.
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列出自己最偏好的高 beta 和复利型名字
@Meatusmax 如果是我个人会这么做： “高上行火箭”： 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCorp 3. PCL 4. $AAOI 复利型： 1. Shunsin 2. Sumitomo 3. Furukawa 4. $COHR 5. $LITE
英文原文
@Meatusmax Maybe here's what I'd do personally: "High Upside Rockets": 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCorp 3. PCL 4. $AAOI Compounders: 1. Shunsin 2. Sumitomo 3. Furukawa 4. $COHR 5. $LITE
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补充自己认为 laser chokepoint 最有上行
@tw_crypto_ 对，我觉得 laser chokepoint 的上行最好。 但这不意味着其他机会就不低估或不够吸引人。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ Yep laser chokepoint has the highest upside imo. But that doesn't mean other opportunities aren't undervalued/compelling.
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强调高置信 thesis 最后都会翻倍
你在开玩笑吗？如果我对 thesis 有把握，我会直接写高置信。 我对 $SIVE、$AEHR、$AAOI 都是这么做的，最后它们都翻了三倍。 我不会分享仓位大小，因为这并不重要。
英文原文
Are you kidding? I always write high conviction if I’m confident in my thesis. And I do it with $SIVE, $AEHR, $AAOI, which all end up tripling. I don’t share position sizing since I don’t want blind copy traders. People should manage their own portfolio and build their own conviction. Without just copying me.
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认为收费看股的服务大多只是因为想法不够好
我越来越确信，那些收 200 或 2000 美元，才给你看股票 pick 的人，多半只是因为自己的想法不够好。 不然他们完全可以直接把这些想法公开做多。
英文原文
I’m convinced that the people who charge $200 or $2000 just to see their stock picks. Do so just because their ideas aren’t good enough. Otherwise they would just go long on them with their own capital and retire. This is why they get mad when they see others sharing better ideas for free.
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揭示机构借媒体打压股价后建仓的套路，批评机构非散户友军。
$SIVE是一场从瑞典本地投资者到美国投资者的巨额财富转移。本地人等待了很多很多年，期待所有激光研发能在共封装光学(CPO)和硅光子学(silicon photonics)上得到回报。但现在随着超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)的量产出货在2026年下半年至2027年上半年，他们却得不到任何上涨收益，因为在信任当地媒体后把股票转让给了美国/西方投资者。我的预测是，如果Sivers在纳斯达克达到40-80亿美元，我们会看到同样的媒体待遇。然后股票又从美国散户转移到美国机构。你已经在这场底部看到了同样的剧本，比如$IQE和$SOI...当时机构发布"研报"说Soitec被高估了。一个月后股价涨了3倍，因为摩根士丹利恰好买入$SOI流通股的6.5%...或者Point72买入$IQE。机构不是你的朋友。不过我是在为散户的最佳利益着想。
英文原文
$SIVE was a massive transfer from Swedish locals to US investors. Locals waited many, many years for all the laser R&D to pay off for CPO and silicon photonics. And now with hyperscaler volume ramp H2 2026 H1 2027, they don’t get any upside because they transferred their shares over to the US/West after trusting local media. My prediction is if and when Sivers hits $4-8B on NASDAQ, we’ll get the same media treatment in the US. Then the shares get transferred from US retail to US institutions. You’ve already seen the same playbook with $IQE and $SOI at the bottom… with institutions posting “analyst reports” saying Soitec was overvalued. The next month they go up 3x as Morgan Stanley happens to pick up 6.5% of the $SOI float… or Point72 with $IQE. Institutions are not your friends. I’m looking out for retail’s best interest though.
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记忆类公司往往提前重估
我说过，像 $SNDK 或 $MU 这种存储公司，重估发生在真正公布财报之前，而不是财报当天。 你可以用第三方 NAND/DRAM TrendForce 这类涨价报告来估算，再据此推 gross margin。 我之前就拿美光做过例子，算出来的毛利率和实际报告几乎完全一致。
英文原文
I said with memory companies like $SNDK or $MU, the repricing happens before the actual earnings. Not actual earnings. You can estimate it with third party NAND/DRAM Trendforce type price hike reports. Then estimate gross margins off of those. I did it for Micron earlier as an example and got reported gross margins spot on.