方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 623 条 · 第 12 / 13 页
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作者表示将持有，认为走势类似2021年，预计降息后市场将垂直上涨。
不，我会持有，但发帖只是半开玩笑，因为不可能正确择时。不过与2021年相比确实非常诡异，因为走势模式看起来很相似。例如，我们又有两次跟随季节性的降息，所以我预计未来几个月会出现垂直上涨。显然还有很多其他因素起作用，但即使历史不会重演，也常常押韵。
英文原文
Nope, I'm holding, but just half-joking with the post because it's impossible to time the market correctly. It's just very uncanny to 2021 though because pattern looks similar. Eg. we have another 2x rate cuts following seasonality so I'd expect a vertical line up for the next few months. Obviously there's a lot more that comes into play but history does rhyme a lot even if it doesn't repeat.
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建议用ARKK作为市场顶部指标，应对AI股新高恐慌。
人们正对 $OKLO、$RGTI 等触及历史新高及泡沫感到恐慌。 半开玩笑地说，如果你想择时顶部： Cathie Wood 的 ARKK 实际上是一个很好的指标。（~2026年2月） 当一切都在🔼上涨时，它就像矿井里的金丝雀（canary in the coal mine）。 https://t.co/auTXknICGd
英文原文
People are panicking about markets from $OKLO, $RGTI, etc. hitting all time highs and bubbles. Half joking but if you you want to time the top: Cathie Wood's ARKK is actually a good indicator. (~Feb 2026) It's a great canary in the coal mine when everything goes 🔼 https://t.co/auTXknICGd
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批评泛泛的期权卖方建议，强调具体行权价实例的重要性。
是的，那些售卖订阅服务的“期权卖方”账号也是如此。他们只是发布“当隐含波动率(IV)高时卖出期权”这类内容，这让人直翻白眼，因为其中有很多细微差别。他们根本不发布具体的行权价。希望我能通过实例展示大家在洞察层面应该阅读什么，比如当我给出带有具体行权价的周权看跌期权卖出示例时，那样才能真正提供帮助。
英文原文
Yeah same goes for all those “option seller” accounts selling subscriptions. They just post “sell options when IV is high” and it’s just a huge eye roll since there’s so much nuance. They don’t post strikes or anything. Hope I can show by example what people should be reading through insight wise that might actually help like when I give examples of selling weekly puts with specific strikes.
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批评热门博主为流量散布有害信息，倡导透明披露基本面与催化剂的研究方法。
周六吐槽，因为最热门的 X 账号为了追求互动量和订阅费，正在积极伤害散户。 那些在 X 上卖 10 美元课程的人，只为了互动量，随便挑像 $RGTI 这种零营收却涨了 4000% 的股票。 然后在 $JOBY、$OPEN、IONQ 等股票暴涨 1000%+ 后，再事后诸葛亮地加上它们，声称因为“X 的未来”所以是必持牛股。 这些内容毫无实质意义，只是有害信息。 如果人们盲目跟随并为此支付 10 美元，你的投资组合会被炸毁。 当我做股票列表时，我会透明地写下： 对股票催化剂或基本面变化的简要解释。 人们可以持不同意见，但这正是让讨论变得富有成效的原因。人们可以根据新信息做出自己的判断。 从实际交易者的角度来看，许多最热门的 X 账号完全是胡说八道。 看到新手盲目上当，不仅损失了自己的钱，还要支付订阅费，这让人心痛。
英文原文
Saturday Rant because the most popular X accounts are actively harming retail for engagement and subscriptions. The people who sell $10 courses on X just pick anything like $RGTI that went up 4000% off 0 revenue for engagement. Then add $JOBY, $OPEN, IONQ, etc. retroactively after a 1000%+ rise and that they're a top stock to own because "Future of X". There's nothing material and it's just harmful information. if people follow them blindly and pay $10 for this, your portfolio will get nuked. When I do stock lists, I write down transparently: A light explanation of catalysts or fundamental changes to a stock. People can disagree, but that's what makes discussions productive. People can make their own judgement from new information. So many of the most popular X accounts are just complete BS from an actual trader's perspective. It hurts to see newcomers blindly fall for this and end up losing their own money on top of paying for subscriptions too.
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市值不等于价值，流动性才是关键，开放市场测试会导致价格暴跌。
@yacineMTB 你可以用1美元买入某公司的X股，从而使其估值达到1万亿美元。流动性(liquidity)更为重要。你会从那些通过持有99%供应量来炒作加密货币的人身上学到这一点。市值(market cap)不等于价值(value)，如果他们在开放市场(open market)中测试，价格可能会暴跌。
英文原文
@yacineMTB You can buy X share for $1 of a company and make it a 1 Trillion valuation. Liquidity matters more. You learn this with people inflating crypto by holding 99% of the supply. Market cap ≠ value, and it would probably dump if they tested it in an open market.
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建议用投资组合保证金交易期权，低波标的可用杠杆，高波标的限1.5倍。
@1995bearjew 关于撰写看跌期权(put options)，我建议使用保证金(margin)交易低贝塔(low beta)标的如 $AMZN，但对于波动性更大的标的，杠杆率绝不超过1.5倍。 为此请使用投资组合保证金(portfolio margin)。
英文原文
@1995bearjew For writing put options yeah I recommend using margin for low beta stuff like $AMZN but never going above 1.5x for more volatile stuff. Use portfolio margin for this
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解释期权卖方波段交易中主动接受行权以博取反弹的策略。
@MilesTa53993799 @1995bearjew 这是结合期权卖方策略的波段交易(swing trading)，所以如果标的因故触及行权价(strike)，你反而希望被行权(get assigned)，以便持有标的等待反弹。
英文原文
@MilesTa53993799 @1995bearjew This is swing trading with option selling, so if it ever hit the strike for some reason, you want to get assigned and you can ride it back up.
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作者对比期权卖方与突破交易，建议散户构建高确信度组合。
我通常不做这种期权卖方策略，因为我更喜欢突破交易以获取更高利润（例如在$90买入$NBIS并持有至上涨50%+）。 我的许多对冲基金和量化交易员朋友在他们的个人七到八位数账户中进行CSP波段操作，我只是揭示其操作方法。 对大多数人来说，只需构建一个高确信度股票的投资组合，并让其在随时间推移中增值即可。
英文原文
I normally don't this type of option writing strategy since I like breakout trading for higher profits (eg. buying $NBIS at $90 and letting it ride 50%+) A lot of my hedge fund + quant trader friends do CSP swing in their personal 7-8 fig ports, and I'm just revealing how it's done. For most people, just build a portfolio of high conviction stocks and let it go up in value over time.
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分享卖出看跌期权策略，认为自有资金交易风险可控。
是的，试图设置付费墙或隐藏这些信息毫无意义，因为每个人都应该能够学习这些知识。 这对波段交易者来说是最好的，因为如果你卖出看跌期权(Put)并认为市场处于局部底部，你将拥有额外的10-15%的安全边际，这简直太棒了。 所以，虽然很多人认为这有风险，但我真心不这么认为（如果我用自己的投资组合交易的话）。但如果别人这么做，我会认为这有风险。
英文原文
Yeah, there's no point of trying to paywall or hide this information since everyone should be able to learn this. It's the best for swing traders because if you write Puts and you think it's a local bottom, you have an additional like 10-15% margin of error which is just stupid. So while a lot of people think it's risky, I genuinely don't think so (if I'm trading with my own portfolio). But I would think it's risky if someone else did it.
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分享激进期权卖出策略，强调底部择时与波动率管理，警示高风险。
我写了一个期权卖出波段交易策略，上周用100万美元本金在5天内实现了2万美元利润，年化收益率(Y/Y)超过183%。 我总是提前给出确切头寸，而不是事后诸葛亮。 $NBIS +$5.52K $HIMS +$1.427k $CIFR +$5.239K $RKLB +$3.8K $TGT +$1.3k $AMZN +$1.22K $IBIT +$947.86 $META +$869 对于100万美元的组合，这相当于每周约2%的被动复利，年化回报183%。 所有行权价均归零作废，权利金被全额收取。 即使股票下跌，如$HIMS（今日跌5.32%，本周跌6.5%），你仍有100%的利润。 这是波段交易者能够极好地抄底时采用的策略。 如果本周我再写看跌期权(Put)，我会动态调整行权价，并跳过一些之前写过的股票，比如因价格上涨而跳过的$RKLB。 再次强调，这适用于极其高级的交易者，这不是典型的“写看跌期权赚钱”策略，因为你需要主动进行底部择时（就像我今天在Reddit上发帖尝试寻找$200的局部底部）。不是在随机时间写期权。 如果你不知道如何很好地抄底，写看跌期权会放大亏损。 无论如何，这是许多高级交易者如何通过写期权复利净资产的一个例子。 （引用内容）： 激进地基于100万美元写期权将是： 5天内+$20.24K，每周2.024%，年化回报183.48%。 使用100万美元现金，盈透证券(IBKR)组合保证金示例： 85股 $NBIS $96 PUT (+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金占用) 55股 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10 PUT (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85 PUT (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5 PUT (+$1.22K) ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) 100万美元现金，331万美元保证金。如果我把现金留到下周，我会这样做。 这是对每只股票进行底部择时，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。 此外，如果你在财报周这样做，回报率可能会高于183%哈哈，这可能是任何事件中利润最高的。但再次强调，超级危险，这是我个人会做的，也许只是当作乐趣阅读并在模拟账户中尝试，不要实盘。 另外，我也是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，鉴于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值较低，你可以使用更多杠杆）。 你必须先择时底部，然后写看跌期权。例如，AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC大约在$107k附近见底，RKLB短期内不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。 所以希望这对活跃的波段交易者和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试这个。 _ 所以只是随机想法 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上写看跌期权。不要受OKLO或QBTS高权利金的诱惑，因为突然下跌后它们可能几年都无法恢复。你需要已经知道什么是伟大的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机 penny stocks 或投机性东西上写期权。只写你愿意买入并持有的东西，因为写看跌期权基本上意味着你最终会在那些价位买入它。 2. 在真正的好股票上高隐含波动率(IV)时重复操作，例如，如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB IV是90%或NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会下降到60%或类似水平。 3. 不要对极高贝塔值的股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5倍保证金对于像NBIS或RKLB这样的股票更安全。高贝塔值使用2-3倍保证金是危险的。 这就是为什么~1.5倍保证金对于NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合适的，以防除一只外其他全部下跌。 然后对于低贝塔值股票如META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使下跌那么多也不会对组合造成太大影响。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为什么变化。如果你只是重复这样做，但在财报周卖出东西，而像TTD这样的股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。再次强调，这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果你真的想玩得安全，选择一个更低的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选择了那个行权价。 6. 还需要知道任何重大宏观事件+风险水平。所以凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息从65%降至56%等。 另一方面，一些催化剂，比如AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，所以它可能会表现更好并价格上涨，所以可能更好在之后写期权。所以如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日才开始卖看跌期权，而不是本周。 _ 一般来说粗略的经验法则 IV - <30%，不太值得，不像Blackrock、SPY那样波动不大，除非有PPI或其他事件 IV - 30-45%，通常是像MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN这样的科技股。在你用于高贝塔值的1.5倍之上额外使用保证金来做这些是很好的。 45%-65%，通常是30-60%年化增长类型的公司，如MRVL、Coin等。有时它们被严重错误定价，比如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值得，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%，通常是你更有趣的散户股票，如RKLB、NBIS，这是非常好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能会在下跌时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+增加几个百分点，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+，哈哈危险区（如果你卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报这样的东西。可能有原因。如果你知道为什么，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在当时以200% IV卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上说我会在那个价位买入。 如果NBIS等东西在1-2天内IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方实际上是好事。如果是一周后，嗯，可能有什么东西会极度波动。 _ 如果我要分解个别股票 例如AMZN，作为波段交易者，我会在$210水平附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔值（波动方式）相对较低，所以你可以基于它不会触及来调整你的保证金。 例如高贝塔值，85股 NBIS $96 PUT (+$5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方来说太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不真的期望它跌破$100。IBKR不这样做，所以我推荐像Robinhood这样的东西来看盈亏平衡点，所以这只股票需要下跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。 这也是为了激进复利的期权卖出， 而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)头寸（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并且我认为我可以以更好的位置获得它，你可以在当前行权价写看跌期权，而不是低得多的价格）。 此外，除非有像特朗普关税这样绝对砸盘市场的黑天鹅事件，否则这几乎每周都有效。所以那周的看跌期权卖方被摧毁了，你可能只需要接受微小的损失并重新开始。 当我有闲置现金时我会这样做，因为我更多是突破交易者类型。 这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在1000万美元以上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示它是如何做的以及背后的思维过程。 随意问随机问题，我会帮助解释。
英文原文
I wrote a Option Sell Swing Trade strategy that would realized $20k profit in 5 days with $1M last week for 183%+ Y/Y. I always give exact positions ahead of time, not retroactively. $NBIS +$5.52K $HIMS +$1.427k $CIFR +$5.239K $RKLB +3.8K $TGT +$1.3k $AMZN +$1.22K $IBIT +$947.86 $META +$869 With a $1M portfolio on it would be ~2% week passive compound for 183% Y/Y return. Every strike expired worthless and the premium would be collected. Even when stocks declined such as $HIMS (down 5.32% today), and 6.5% this week, you would still have 100% profit. This is a strategy people do when you're able to bottom time extremely well as a swing trader. If I were to write puts again for this week, I would dynamically change the strikes, and skip out on some stocks that I wrote earlier like $RKLB due to an increase in price. Again this works for extremely advanced traders, this is not your typical "write put, make money" type strategy since you're actively bottom timing (like how I posted with Reddit today, trying to time $200 local bottom). Not just writing options at random times. If you don't know how to bottom time well, writing puts will magnify loss. Regardless, this is an example of how a lot of advanced traders write options to compound net worth.
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利用高隐含波动率卖出CSP看跌期权获利。
@cmachdop 是的，在 neoclouds 上卖出内容服务提供商(CSP) 极其明智，因为隐含波动率(IV) 很高（主要是由于大型超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler) 的随机合同），这有利于看跌期权(Put) 卖方。
英文原文
@cmachdop yeah selling CSP on neoclouds is extremely smart since IV is high (mainly because of random hyperscaler contracts) and this benefits put sellers.
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建议投资者尽早开始定投，不要等到明年二月散户追高时才入场。
@mylifemyrulez22 不，为时未晚。事实上你其实还早。大多数散户可能要到明年二月创历史新高时才会知道这件事 lol。即使今天看到涨了 8%，现在就开始定投(成本平均法)吧。
英文原文
@mylifemyrulez22 no, not too late. In fact you're actually early. Most retail will probably find out about it at all time highs next year February lol. Just cost average now even if you see it up 8% today.
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讨论风险管理策略：交易者高抛低吸，长期投资者应坚定持有。
关于风险管理，很多人说当股票涨幅足够时，你应该减仓以收回本金，让剩余部分继续持有。然而，我认为如果你对该股票有信念，大多数人应该直接100%持有并让其复利增长。但话说回来，大多数人选择的股票都是错的。我个人如果感觉股价见顶，就会卖出100%或90%，然后在回调时重新买入。但我是交易者，如果你是长期投资者，就继续持有。
英文原文
For risk management, a lot of people say when a stock gains enough, you would trim enough to take out your principal and let the rest ride. However, I think most people should just hold 100% and let it compound if you have conviction in it. But then again, most people choose the wrong stocks. Personally I just sell 100% or like 90% if I feel like it topped, then rebuy on the dip. But I'm a trader, if you're long investing, just hold it.
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分享基于图表的波段交易策略，强调结合基本面与宏观分析的重要性。
我如何用图表进行波段交易，第二部分：短期（几周）+ 短中期（几个月）。 长期部分我会在另一篇帖子中讨论。 例1：$RKLB。仅凭直觉，在$40支撑位买入似乎是个好选择，$54卖出。通常下半部分（虚线）如$44也是不错的买入点，因为风险回报比良好，但你不会买到绝对底部。 你可以对像Rocketlab这样的股票这样做，因为长期来看，如果你持有足够久，即使它跌破$40，鉴于其基本面是强力买入（尽管目前略微高估），它很可能会恢复。 例2：$AMZN - 现在用正股买入是很好的选择。如果它跌破$210，你可以使用LEAPS（长期期权）。例如低于$200时，使用期限较短的看涨期权。 _ 了解基本面、宏观环境以及催化剂是否实质性影响也非常重要。如果未来收入大幅下降或行业利润率压缩，这些线条毫无意义。 很多时候它们因更非理性的因素下跌，例如GOOGL与苹果搜索之争，或者整体市场SPY下跌，但在这些情况下，如果没有实质性差异且公司持续增长，它们通常会再次上涨。再次强调，因人而异，在抄底时机上你需要分析图表以外的更多因素。这只是我所做工作的一部分。
英文原文
How I do swing trading with charts, Part 2: Short term (few week) + Short-Medium Term (few month). I'll do long term ones in another post. Ex 1: $RKLB. Just going off feels on this, seems like a great buy at $40 support, and $54 sell. Usually lower half (dotted line) like $44 is a good buy too cause risk-reward is good but u wont get the actual bottom. You can do it with stuff like Rocketlab since long term if you hold enough, even if it dips past $40 it will likely recover since it's a strong buy fundamentally albeit a tiny overvalued now. Example 2: $AMZN - Great buy with shares now. If it ever dips past $210, you can do leaps. Lower than $200 for example, shorter dated calls. _ Knowing fundamentals, macro, and whether catalysts are material or not is really also important. These lines mean nothing if forward revenue falls a lot or industry margins compresses. Lot of time they drop on more irrational things eg. GOOGL with Apple search, or maybe overall market SPY dipping but in those cases they usually rise up again if there's no difference + company keeps growing. Again different for everyone, you need to analyze more than the charts when timing bottoms. This is just part of what I do.
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确认通用趋势形态推理属于正式的技术分析范畴。
@SquaredSircle 你说得对，我查了一下。我只是以为这种通用的趋势形态推理不属于正式的技术分析(Technical Analysis)，但看来确实属于。
英文原文
@SquaredSircle You're right, i looked it up. I just thought this general trend pattern reasoning wasn't a formal TA but guess it is.
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分享期权定投策略、打破IV规则及税务考量。
谢谢，是的，风险承受能力确实很重要。另外我也不完美，偶尔也会看错，但我觉得总体上我的准确率还不错。 忘了再补充一点关于仓位管理的事。你可以用看涨期权进行定投(DCA)，但这风险大得多。我个人会这么做，如果某只股票被严重低估，我会打破隐含波动率(IV)<32%的规则。 等股价再次上涨后，你可以换回正股，而不是仅仅持有看涨期权，然后重复此操作以改善你的平均成本。 但所有这些操作都会触发短期资本利得税，所以并不适合所有人。
英文原文
Thanks, yeah risk tolerance is really important. Also I'm not perfect so I do get some wrong from time to time, but I do think generally I'm decently accurate. Forgot to add one more thing about position sizing too. You can DCA with calls but it's a lot more risky. I personally do this and break the <32% IV rule if something is really undervalued. And after it rises again, you can switch back to shares instead of just holding the calls + repeat to improve your cost average. But all of this triggers short term capital gains tax so not for everyone.
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建议普通投资者长期持有高确信度股票并卖出备兑看涨期权。
@NoahIAvest 这是给日内交易者/波段交易者+期权卖方用于底部/顶部择时的。如果你是普通投资者，只需像持有 $IREN $CIFR 那样持有你高确信度的股票1年，并学习如何卖出备兑看涨期权(Covered Call)。例如 @DeepValueBagger。
英文原文
@NoahIAvest This is for day trader/swing traders + option sellers for bottom/top timing. If you're just a regular investor, just hold your high conviction stocks for 1y like $IREN $CIFR if those are your two, and learn to write cc on them. eg. @DeepValueBagger https://t.co/rQm3UPyeP2
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建议对长期持仓进行正向定投，若估值未反映营收潜力则继续持有加仓。
@taleino93 补充一点，对于长期持有(long term holds)的标的，你应该进行正向定投(cost average up)。如果基本面利好显著，比如 $CRWV 之于 Meta 或 $NBIS 之于 MSFT，只要你认为上涨行情尚未完全反映未来的营收潜力，就继续持有并在回调时加仓。
英文原文
@taleino93 Adding on to this, for long term holds, you should cost average up. If it's materially positive like Meta for $CRWV or MSFT of $NBIS, just hold it and buy more if you think forward rev potential is not priced in from a rally.
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强调仓位管理重要性，举例说明分批建仓与波段操作策略。
谢谢！忘了在上面补充一点：投资组合配置极其重要，以防你时机把握不准或发生意外，从而能进行成本平均。例如，如果你有10万美元的投资组合，其中3万美元现金。$NBIS 从117美元跌至112美元时，你可以投入1.5万美元。如果从112美元跌至105美元，再投入1.5万美元。如果从105美元跌至95美元，你可以将那3万美元转为看涨期权。如果你仅持有股票且风险承受能力较低（例如25%的仓位分配），就不应该想“我应该全仓买入，因为它涨了3%”。你投资组合中25%的部分获得3%的利润已经很不错了。显然这只是例子，针对像NBIS这样高确信度的标的，我对$PATH 不太了解。对于像$CRWV 这样的标的，我昨天在跌至120美元时买入，然后在139-140美元左右卖出，并可能等待另一个入场点，同时持有其他新云厂商如NBIS。
英文原文
Thanks! Forgot to add above that portfolio positioning is extremely important just in case you get timing wrong + something unexpected happens so you can cost average. So if you have $100 portfolio for example, $30k cash. $NBIS drops $117-> $112, you can do like $15k at that level. If it drops $112 -> $105, do another $15k. If it drop $105 -> $95, you can switch that $30k to calls. If you're doing only shares with less risk tolerance eg. 25% allocation, you shouldn't think "i should have full ported it went up 3%". 3% profit off 25% of your portfolio is already good. Obviously just examples, from something higher conviction like NBIS, I don't really know about $PATH. For something like $CRWV I actually bought yesterday on some drop to $120 then sold $139-140ish, and will likely wait for another entry point while I hold other neoclouds like NBIS.
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博主分享6只个股的短期交易策略，强调经验直觉胜过耐心口号。
最近 X 上流传着很多鼓舞人心的交易者心态，比如： “会有回报的。要有耐心。”全是废话。 交易者会考虑板块动量、催化剂、估值、回调、宏观、隐含波动率(IV)、期权流向等。 以下是我对各种股票短期交易的心态： 1. $NBIS - $111.91，尽管当天上涨了 1.53%，但由于 Meta 给予其 140 亿美元合同，CRWV 上涨了 12%。 这通常对所有新云厂商都是利好。它曾飙升至 $117（我可能仍会持有），但随后回落至 $111，可能是由于未平仓合约过多，但我们可能会继续看到上涨行情。因此我会利用这段时间进行定投(DCA)并买入看涨期权/股票，即使它已经上涨了 1.53%。 这不是“真正的下跌”，更像是上涨过程中的回调。 2. $HIMS - $56.4 下跌 4.67%，通常人们只是盲目抄底，但这实际上是由重大因素引起的，即特朗普推出了面向消费者的政府药品网站。随着股价升至 $60，空头比率降至 33%。 这次下跌可能会被用于空头回补。我在 $46 支撑位买入，但在反弹后不久卖出，因为我感觉它还会进一步下跌。但我个人更喜欢底部入场点，所以可能更接近 $50。 我记得 AMZN 推出竞争对手时，HIMS 暴跌 20% 然后再次上涨，我预计特朗普的计划中期也会如此，但近期它是一个逆风因素。 3. $RDDT - $228，下跌 5.45%，没有新闻。可能只是估值担忧。我们看到类似的增长股如 ALAB、CRED 有随机的 20% 回调。许多软件/社交股票如 SNAP 因非重大新闻下跌 8.1%。修正很健康，股票不会一直上涨，我个人更倾向于等待再次回到 $100+，而不是 $200+，但鉴于 RDDT 在随机日子有更大的 5-8% 回调，根据历史经验，6-7% 的下跌是日内的好买点，你可能会看到它恢复，但我们可能会看到许多增长股在 11/12 月的大涨前经历更大的修正，所以可能不是真正的底部。 我现在不看图表 RSI，只是基于过去一两年每天观察股票 + IV 的经验感觉来做。 4. AMZN - 没有重大宏观新闻，可能是 10 月 1 日的政府停摆可能会引起指数恐慌，但这没什么大不了的。它下跌了 1.35%，所以我会买入，因为这是摊低成本的好时机。 5. Klarna - $36，下跌 5.3%。有时你只是凭直觉行事。低于 IPO 价格，没有重大新闻。大多数 IPO 都下跌了，比如 Gemini 等。如果你想建立长期头寸，我会在这个水平买入。 6. TSM - $277，我有罪地进行了 $273-$279 之间的波段交易，所以我每次跌至 $273 就买入，在 $277-$279 卖出以获取 2% 的纯股票利润。到目前为止，我用股票做了大约 2 次。如果跌破 $273，我就定投，如果进一步下跌就切换到看涨期权。 没有绝对的对错方式，每个人都有自己的方法。（另外抱歉 CRM，糟糕的财报搞错了那个，如果进一步下跌我可能会摊平成本）。 但一般来说，这只是我浏览每只股票清单时的想法。再次强调，每个人想法不同，我只是想写下我的思考过程，如果对他有帮助的话。
英文原文
Lot of inspirational trader mindsets going around X lately like: "It will pay off. Be Patient". All BS. Traders consider sector momentum, catalysts, valuation, pullbacks, macro, IV, option flows, etc. Here's my mindset for short term trading for various stocks: 1. $NBIS - $111.91, even though it's up 1.53% on the day, CRWV is up 12% off Meta gives them a $14B contract. So usually it's bullish for all neoclouds. It spiked to $117 ( i probably would have still held) but pulled back to $111 likely from too much open interest, but we'll likely keep seeing a rally upward. So I'd use this time to DCA and buy calls/shares even if it's up 1.53% Not "truly a dip" but it's more of a dip during a rally. 2. $HIMS - $56.4 Down 4.67%, usually people just blindly buy the dip but this was actually caused from something material, which was Trump launching a direct to consumer GOV drug website. Short interest decreased back to 33% on the rise to $60. This dip will likely be used for short covering. I did buy $46 support but sold shortly on a bounce after I just felt like it would go down more. But I just personally prefer bottom entry points so that's probably closer to $50. I still remember AMZN launching a competitor, HIMS crashed 20% then rose again, I'd expect the same with Trump's program mid term but near term it's a headwind. 3. $RDDT - $228, down 5.45%, no news. Just probably valuation concerns. We saw similar growth stocks like ALAB, CRED, have random 20% pullbacks. Lot of software/social stocks like SNAP down 8.1% off non-material news. Correction is healthy, stocks don't just keep going up, I'd prefer to wait in the $100+ again, rather than $200+ (just personally), but it's actually a better buy than the rest, given RDDT has larger 5-8% pullbacks on random days, just from historical experiences so 6-7% drop is a good buy intra-day and you'd likely see it recover but we might see a lot of growth stocks have a larger correction into massive rally Nov/Dec so might not be an actual bottom. I don't really look at chart RSI nowadays, just do this based on feelings from experience looking at the stock + IV every day for the past year or two. 4. AMZN - No major macro news, prob government shutdown Oct 1st that might cause some panic for index but it's pretty immaterial. It dropped, 1.35% so I'd buy since it' a good time to cost average. 5. Klarna - $36, 5.3% drop. Sometimes you just go off gut feeling. Below IPO price, no major news. Most IPOs were down like Gemini, etc. If you wanted to build a long term position I'd buy at this level. 6. TSM - $277, I've been guilty of swing trading between $273-$279, so I just buy every drop to $273 and sell at $277-$279 for 2% profit purely with shares. So far I've done this ~2 times with shares. If it drops past $273, I'd just DCA and then if it drops further switch to calls. There's no True or False way to do this, everyone kind of has their own approach. (also sorry about CRM, bad earnings got that one wrong, I'll probably cost avg if ti declines further). But generally this is just what I'm thinking about when I go down the list of every single stock. Once again, everyone thinks differently, I just wanted to write down how I think if it's helpful to others.
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征集社区最高确信度且具200%潜力的AI基建股，以构建观察列表。
众包征集 X 社区最高确信度的股票——如下文中的 $NBIS 或 $RR。 仅限未来 6 个月内具备 200%+ 潜力的标的。 📈 你的单一 #1 最高确信度选股及逻辑是什么？ 这将有助于建立超大规模建设赢家（Hyperscaling winners）的社区观察列表。 https://t.co/qYO574waHR
英文原文
Crowdsourcing the X community’s highest-conviction stocks — names like $NBIS or $RR below. Only 200%+ potential plays over the next 6 months. 📈 What's your single #1 highest conviction pick and thesis? Would be helpful to build a community watchlist for hyperscaling winners. https://t.co/qYO574waHR
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对比高盛与穆迪对衰退的矛盾观点，强调独立分析的重要性。
@unusual_whales 高盛：“衰退风险低，利好股市” 穆迪：“衰退，清仓所有” 这就是为什么你不应该听信分析师，而要自己做分析。
英文原文
@unusual_whales Goldman Sachs: "Low recession risk bullish for stocks" Moodys "Recession, sell everything" This is why you don't listen to analysts and do your own analysis.
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根据风险偏好配置高增长股与稳健资产，无需全仓。
如果你想追逐更多收益，我会建议卖出你的“七巨头(Mag7)”去买入像 $NBIS 这样的高增长股票。如果你需要照顾家庭且无法承担任何风险，持有 SPY/QQQ/“七巨头(Mag7)”并让财富随时间缓慢复利增长也无可厚非。答案取决于你的风险承受能力。我对 $NBIS 有十足的信心，但你始终需要考虑那不到1%的黑天鹅(Black Swan)情景。像 $HOOD 这样的股票可能会出现80%的回撤，而“七巨头(Mag7)”的回撤幅度会小一些。此外，没人说你必须全仓！你可以始终只将投资组合的25%分配给某只股票。
英文原文
If you wanted to chase more gains, I'd sell your Mag7 for hypergrowth stocks like $NBIS. If you have a family to take care of and can't take any risk, there's nothing bad about holding SPY/QQQ/Mag7 and just compounding more slowly over time. Answer depends on your risk tolerance. I have full conviction in $NBIS but there's always the <1% black swan scenario you need to consider. There could always be a 80% drawdown in something like $HOOD but something like Mag7 would have a less drawdown. Also nobody said you had to full port! You can always allocate like 25% of your port to a stock
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分享交易决策逻辑，助读者学习波段交易与抄底技巧。
@ElectroSalamanc 谢谢！我看到很多这类买入/卖出(Buy/Sell)风格的帖子，但几乎没人真正解释原因。所以我认为分享基于今日价格波动+催化剂(catalysts)的每笔交易背后的推理逻辑会有所帮助。这类小事有助于人们随着时间推移学习波段交易(swing trading)和抄底时机(bottom timing)。
英文原文
@ElectroSalamanc Thanks! I see a lot of these Buy/Sell style posts but nobody really posts why. So I thought it would help to post reasoning behind each one based on today's price movements + catalysts. Little things like this help people learn swing trading + bottom timing over time.
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建议通过虚值期权和组合保证金降低行权风险，追求每周1%的可持续收益。
关键在于，如果 $AMZN 触及 207.5 的溢价位，或 $NBIS 触及 96 的溢价位，你应该求着被行权（assigned），这些也是你可以买入看涨期权（calls）的价位。我的建议是选择更虚值（OTM）的合约并使用组合保证金（portfolio margin），而不是像 $AMZN 215 那样选择更接近行权价的合约，从而降低每周被行权的风险。除了 HIMX、CIFR 和可能的 META，我提到的这几个行权价被触及的可能性较小；如果真触及了，你应持有股票进行波段交易（swing trade）。但正如你指出的，每周约 1% 的收益对大多数人来说更可持续。
英文原文
The thing is if $AMZN ever hits $207.5 - premium or $NBIS ever hits $96 - premium you should beg to get assigned and those are levels you might buy calls on. Going more OTM and using portfolio margin is my suggestion instead of going closer to strike like $215 on $AMZN and having higher risk of assignment every week. My strikes are less likely aside from hims/CIFR/ possibly meta up there are the three I'd say, and if they do hit, you want to hold the stock for a swing trade. But yeah as you pointed out 1% a week or so is a lot more sustainable for most people
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建议波段交易者接受期权行权通知以顺势买入。
@rioferdy838 @zenovaire 接受行权通知，因为如果你是做波段交易(swing trading)，你本来就会想在这些行权价买入那些股票。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 @zenovaire Take assignment since you'd probably want to buy those stocks at those strikes anyway if you're swing trading.
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批评付费课程，指出高IV低贝塔期权卖出是复利关键。
@zenovaire 谢谢！是的，我只是看到随机的人说“卖出 $AMZN 看跌期权”并购买每年约 399 美元的课程，有点受够了。但通过高隐含波动率(IV)股票 + 低贝塔值(Beta)的保证金期权卖出策略，确实是许多人实现数百万美元复利增长的方式。这确实需要相当多的知识。
英文原文
@zenovaire Thanks! Yeah I just see random people saying "Sell $AMZN puts" and buy a course for like $399 a year and kinda got fed up. But playing higher IV stocks + low beta on margin option selling really is how a lot of people compound millions. It does take a quite of knowledge to do
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分享针对CIFR/IREN的周度看跌期权卖出策略及思维过程。
没问题！忘了在帖子里提到，如果你做这类交易，全是针对 $CIFR 或 $IREN 等标的的周度看跌期权(Put Option)卖出。我很少看到关于实际操作思维过程的帖子，而且我很多拥有1000万美元以上现金的前量化或分析师朋友也是这样做的。背后的思维过程有点难写清楚，但我尽力了哈哈。
英文原文
No problem! Forgot to mention in the post that it's all weeklies put option selling on stuff like $CIFR or $IREN if you're doing those. I don't really see many posts about the thought process how it's actually done and a lot of my former quant or analyst friends with $10m+ in cash do it this way too. Kinda hard to write out the thought process behind it but tried my best lol.
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分享激进卖出高IV看跌期权的策略、保证金管理及风险警示。
激进地卖出期权（Writing Options）$100万组合如下： 5天收益+$20.24K，周回报2.024%，年化回报183.48%。 以$100万现金、IBKR组合保证金为例： 85股 $NBIS $96看跌期权(+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金) 55股 $HIMS $49.5看跌期权 (+$1.427K) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10看跌期权 (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42看跌期权 (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85看跌期权 (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5看跌期权 (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59看跌期权 (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5看跌期权 (+$869) ($335K) $100万现金，331万保证金。如果下周持有现金，我会这么做。 这是对每只股票进行底部择时(Bottom Timing)，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。 如果在财报周做，回报可能高于183%，这通常是最有利可图的事件。但再次强调，超级危险，这只是我个人会做的，仅供娱乐阅读或在模拟账户尝试，不要实盘。 此外，我是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，由于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值低，你可以加更多杠杆）。 你必须择时底部然后卖出看跌期权。例如：AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC在$107k左右见底，RKLB短期不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。 希望这对活跃的波段交易者(Swing Traders)和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试。 _ 一些随机想法： 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上卖出看跌期权。不要因OKLO或QBTS的高权利金而诱惑，因为它们可能在突然下跌后多年无法恢复。你需要先知道什么是优质的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机仙股或投机标的上卖出期权。只卖你愿意买入并持有的标的，因为卖出看跌期权意味着你最终会在该价位买入。 2. 在高隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)的真正好股票上重复操作，例如如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB/NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会降至60%左右。 3. 不要对极高贝塔股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5x保证金对NBIS或RKLB这类股票更安全。高贝塔股2-3x杠杆很危险。 这就是为什么~1.5x保证金对NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合理的（约1664倍杠杆效应），以防除一只外其他都跌。 然后对META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN等低贝塔股票，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使大跌也不会严重损害投资组合。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为何变化。如果你只是重复操作但在财报周卖出，而像TTD这样股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果想更安全，选择低一档的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选了那个行权价。 6. 还需要了解重大宏观事件+风险水平。凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息概率从65%降至56%等。 另一方面，像AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，价格可能上涨，所以可能更好在之后卖出期权。如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日再开始卖出看跌期权。 _ 一般粗略经验法则： IV <30%：不太值得，像Blackrock、SPY除非有PPI等事件否则波动不大。 IV 30-45%：通常是MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN等科技股。除了用于高贝塔股的1.5x外，用额外保证金做这些很好。 45%-65%：通常是MRVL、Coin等30-60%年增长率的公司。有时它们定价错误，如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%：通常是RKLB、NBIS等更有趣的散户股，这是很好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能在回调时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+加点缓冲，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+：哈哈危险区（如果卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报。可能有原因。如果你知道原因，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在200% IV时卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上我会在那个价位买入。 如果NBIS等股票在1-2天到期时IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方其实是好事。如果是一周到期，嗯，可能有什么极度波动的事。 _ 如果我要分解个别案例： 以AMZN为例，作为波段交易者，我会在$210附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔（波动方式）相对较低，所以可以根据它不会触及来调整保证金。 对于高贝塔股，例如85股 NBIS $96看跌期权，(+5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不认为它会跌破$100。IBKR不提供此功能，所以我推荐Robinhood查看盈亏平衡点，这只股票需要跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。 这也是为了激进复利期权卖出， 而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)建仓（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并认为能以更好价格获得，你可以卖出当前行权价的看跌期权，而不是低得多的行权价）。 此外，这几乎每周都有效，**除非**发生像特朗普关税那样彻底击垮市场的黑天鹅事件。那周的看跌期权卖方会被摧毁，你可能需要接受微小损失并重新开始。 当我有闲置现金时我会这么做，因为我更偏向突破交易者(Breakout Trader)类型。 这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在$1000万+上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示怎么做以及背后的思维过程。 欢迎随意提问，我会帮忙解释。
英文原文
Aggressively writing options off $1m would be: +$20.24K in 5 days, 2.024% a week, 183.48% y/y return. With a $1M cash, IBKR portfolio margin example: 85 $NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) 55 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250 $CIFR $10 Put (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35 TGT $85, (+$1.3k) $296k) 35 AMZN $207.5, (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) $1M cash, 3.31M margin. This is just something I would do if I kept cash for the next week. This is bottom timing on every stock, and predicting strikes that would not hit for this week based on fundamentals, macro timing, events, and volatility. Also the return would probably be higher than 183% if you did it earnings week lol, which is probably the most profitable out of any event. BUT AGAIN SUPER DANGEROUS, this is something I'd personally do, maybe just read for fun and try on paper accounts but not live. Also, I'm also going off the top of my head with margin maintenance (eg. you can leverage more with META, TGT, AMZN, etc. given they're low beta). You have to time bottoms then write the puts. eg. AMZN not likely hitting sub $210, BTC sort of bottoming $107k around now, RKLB not going below $43 near term, NBIS $100 support, TGT bototming, META not likely to drop 5%+ a week, etc. So hopefully this is a bit informative to active SWING TRADERS and advanced traders, if you're a newcomer with just indexes, do not try this. _ So just random thoughts 1. Do not write puts on stocks you're not comfortable buying at those levels. Don't get tempted by high premiums on OKLO or QBTS cause those could just never recover for years on a sudden drop. You need to know what a great long is already. ^^^^IMPORTANT*** ^^^^, please do not write options on random penny stocks or speculative stuff. Only stuff you're fine buying and holding since writing puts kinda means you would buy it at those levels anyway. 2. REPEAT with high IV on REALLY good stocks, eg. if HOOD IV reaches 90% or RKLB IV is 90% or NBIS IV is 90%, cause eventually IV decreases to 60% or something once things stall out. 3. Do not over-margin extremely high beta stocks, usually 1.3-1.5x margin is safer for stuff like NBIS or RKLB. 2-3x on high beta is dangerous. That's why ~1.5x margin is fine 1,664 on NBIS, CIFR, HIMS, RKLB, etc in case all of them drop aside from one. Then low beta stocks like META, IBIT, TGT, AMZN you;'re fine margining since it wouldn't really dent the portfolio much if it drops that much. 4. LEARN implied volatility and know WHY it changes. If you just do this on repeat but sell stuff on earnings week and something like TTD crashes 40%, you're in trouble. Again this only applies non-earnings week. 5. If you really want to play safe, do one strike lower. Like $CIFR $7.5 will probably not hit, but $10 strike has a small chance. But I'd want to buy it at $10 anyway + the 5.2K prem, so I chose that strike. 6. Also need to know any major macro events + risk levels. So off the top of my mind, there's probably going to be negative news about US GOV shutdown, increased chances of US recession, polymarket pricing down triple rate cut 65% -> 56%, etc. On the other hand, some catalysts like stuff like AMZN has prime day on 8th-9th so it's likely to do better around and increase in price so probably better to write options later. So I might just wait until Oct 3rd, to start selling puts instead of this week if it's too risky. _ Generally rough rule of thumb IV - <30%, not exactly worth it, doesn't really move too much like blackrock, SPY unless there's like PPI or some other event IV - 30-45%, usually tech stocks like MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, etc. It's good to do these with extra margin on top of your 1.5x that you use for higher beta. 45%-65%, usually more 30-60% y/y growth type companies like MRVL, Coin, etc. Sometimes they're really mispriced like COIN/HOOD IV is not worth sometimes given how much they move. 65%-100%, usually your more fun retail stocks like RKLB, NBIS, it's really good sweet spot since they'll likely bounce on dips and if you know how to time bottoms + add a few percent off, it's likely 100%+ premium gain. 100%+, lol danger zone (if you're selling few days out). stuff like OPEN, OKLO, earnings. Probably a reason for it. It's good if you know WHY like NBIS increasing 40% off MSFT deal, i'd sell $85 puts back then at like 200% IV because fundamentally I'd buy at those levels. IV goes to 100%+ on stuff like NBIS if there's one or two days out and that's actually a good thing for option sellers. If it's a week out then uhh something might be extremely volatile. _ If I had to breakdown individual ones AMZN for example, as a swing trader I'd would buy calls around $210 levels, unlikely to drop past $207.5 (so breakeven is $207.15 which is -5.96%), so you want to make sure you choose a level it never hits. You also know IV + beta (how things fluctuates) is relatively low so you can change your margin based on it never hitting. For high beta for example, 85 NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) IV is 92% which is so nice for option selling. You get more premium, and you don't really erxpect it to dip below $100 either. IBKR doesn't do this so I'd recommend stuff like Robinhood to see breakeven, so on this stock would need to drop 11.3% for breakeven. _ Again I'd only recommend this if you're an active swing trader with higher risk tolerance, otherwise stick with stocks that you just hold over a year. This is also for aggressive compounding option selling, not using it strategically to DCA into positions, (eg. if I wanted to buy AMZN at $120, and I think I could get it at a better position, you can write PUTS at current strike instead of way lower). Also, this kinda always works every week **UNLESS** there's a black swan event like Trump tarrifs that absolutely tank the market. So PUT sellers that week kind of got wrecked, and you might need to just take a tiny loss and restart. I do this when I have spare cash on the side since I'm more of a breakout trader type. This is just my personal trading style and flow of thoughts, again VERY DANGEROUS, even if you have some experience. This is super advanced, a lot of former quant traders + buyside colleagues of mine have cash and do this option selling style off $10m+, I'm just kinda showing how it's done and what the thought process is behind it. Feel free to ask random questions and I'll help explain.
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建议通过X平台深度研究捕捉NBIS等新云动量交易机会。
@Liquidity4Life 拥有这样的心态很棒。230% 的回报率简直令人惊叹，请继续保持你现在的做法。 但在 X 上获取更多深度研究(DD)确实有帮助，这样你就能捕捉到像 $NBIS 或新云(neoclouds)这样的突破和动量交易机会，而这些通常是你不会发现的。
英文原文
@Liquidity4Life That's a great mindset to have. 230% is an absolutely amazing return, just keep doing what you're doing. But it does help to take in more DD on X so you can catch breakouts and momentum trades like $NBIS or neoclouds that you normally wouldn't have discovered.
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建议使用富达，避免使用将订单流卖给做市商的券商。
@claudiohrios 富达(Fidelity)很棒。我只是说不要使用像 $HOOD 或 $BULL 这样将支付订单流(Payment Order Flow)路由给做市商的券商。
英文原文
@claudiohrios Fidelity is great. I was just saying don't use brokerages like $HOOD or $BULL with payment order flow that route to market makers.
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建议大量期权交易者转用盈透证券，小散户可留原券商。
@TribeRuffner 我进一步研究了一下，盈透证券(IBKR) 的期权执行可能最好。 如果你交易大量期权，绝对值得更换券商。 如果你只是小散户卖备兑看涨期权(CCs) 或单纯持有股票，留在 Robinhood 或嘉信理财(Schwab) 也没问题。
英文原文
@TribeRuffner Looked into it a bit more and IBKR probably has the best option execution. If you're touching large quantities of options it's 100% worth moving brokerages. If you're a little fish selling CCs or just holding stock, it's fine to stay in Robinhood or Schwab.
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对比PayPal与GOOGL、TSM的隐含波动率，质疑其期权溢价性价比。
@DeepValueBagger @PaperBozz @FrostyFinances 隐含波动率(Implied Volatility)为38%，对于像PayPal这样的标的来说处于较高水平，所以我不确定溢价是否真的便宜。例如，当我交易$GOOGL看涨期权时，隐含波动率为28%，或者$TSM为32%。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger @PaperBozz @FrostyFinances IV is 38% which is on the higher end for something like PayPal though so not sure about premium being cheap. When I did $GOOGL calls they were 28% for example or $TSM was 32%.
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博主偏好持有股票而非频繁做CSP，认为股票上涨回报高于期权权利金。
不，我主要做看涨期权(Call Credits)，除非是财报季，因为我更倾向于持有股票。那些每周频繁做看跌期权(CSP)的人，很多时候现金占比高达80%。当然，你仍然可以用杠杆或20%的现金来做，但我偏爱不这么做，因为我抄底时机把握得相当好，且股票上涨带来的回报超过了CSP的权利金收益。是的，这些总是做周权。
英文原文
No I do mainly CC's unless it's earnings since I prefer to hold equities. People who do CSPs's every week a lot of times have like 80% cash. Obviously you can still do it with margin or 20% cash but I prefer not to do it since I time the bottom pretty well and returns on stock going up outweigh CSP premiums. Yeah always weeklies for these.
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建议模拟交易备兑看涨期权以学习，虽难掌握但优于收租。
嗯，为了学习目的，模拟交易（Paper Trade）你现有持仓的备兑看涨期权（Covered Calls）并观察是否每周都能获利，是个好主意。 仍然不建议初学者这样做，但如果能熟练掌握，利润非常可观。 我宁愿卖出备兑看涨期权（CSP），也不愿买房后出租，但我会说99%以上的人无法有效执行这一策略。 很高兴能帮上一点忙！
英文原文
Hmm, for learning purposes it's a good idea to paper trade covered calls on your existing stocks and see if you profit every week. Still don't recommend it for beginners, but highly profitable to learn if you get good at it. I'd prefer selling CSP over buying then renting out real estate but I'd say 99%+ of people can't do it effectively. Glad I was able to help a bit!
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作者打破只买正股规则，在特定黑天鹅或底部信号下转向期权策略。
我在这里打破了自己关于只买正股而非看涨期权(call)的经验法则——32%的隐含波动率(IV)股票，但通常如果发生黑天鹅事件导致无关紧要的下跌，例如 $IREN 因摩根大通(JPM)糟糕的目标价下跌14%。或者 $CIFR 下跌17%后仅因 $GOOGL 的支撑而下跌5%，这时我会转向看涨期权。通常如果我认为触底了，或者认为像 $TSM $AMZN 这样的股票会在几个月内上涨，且我在定投(DCA)，且IV没有偏离32%太多且不至于糟糕，我会考虑使用期权。当然也有例外，比如 $IBIT 高IV时跳入周度备兑看涨期权(covered calls)，但那是另一种策略。不过，抄底时机极难把握。
英文原文
I broke my own rule of thumb here about shares only vs. call -> 32% IV stock but usually if something black swans off something immaterial eg. $IREN 14% drop off JPM bs price target. Or $CIFR 17% drop into 5% drop off $GOOGL backstopping it, then I switch to calls. Usually if I think it's a bottom or if I think a stock would go up like $TSM $AMZN over a few months and I'm DCA and IV isn't way off 32% and horrendous I'd consider it. There's exceptions obviously like $IBIT with higher IV leaps into weekly covered calls but that's another strategy. Bottom timing is extremely hard though
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分享期权卖方策略经验：选对券商、小户用保证金、精通IV与财报风险。
补充一下关于学习期权卖方策略的讨论： 1. 券商选择极其重要，大资金账户切勿使用 $HOOD。他们声称免费，但可能是期权交易中最差的券商，因为他们将订单路由给做市商(MMs)，并通过糟糕的成交执行来赚取你的钱。除非你在Mag7或SPY上卖出低点差的现金担保看涨期权(Cash-Secured Calls, CCs)或现金担保看跌期权(Cash-Secured Puts, CSPs)，否则请使用 $IBKR 进行订单执行，即使你以最低价格卖出，他们也能提供最好的成交。看似损失几美元，但每份合约0.2-0.4美元的执行差异能带来数千美元的差别。 2. 如果是小账户，我建议用保证金(Margin)代替2倍杠杆ETF，因为后者存在波动率衰减(Volatility Decay)。（你可以谷歌搜索为什么不要长期持有2倍杠杆ETF）。使用保证金有清算风险，但仍优于杠杆ETF。帖子中应该已经提到过这一点。 3. 学习股票的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)。例如，$HOOD 通常每天波动不超过4-6%。$NBIS 通常每天波动不超过7%。$TSM 很少出现单日4%以上的波动。如果你在 $NBIS 上卖出4天到期的CCs，例如6*4，卖出约$130的24%+虚值(Out-of-The-Money, OTM)期权（当前股价$107）通常是明智且盈利的。如果你卖出约$110的CCs，你是在要求股票被行权(Call Away)，这通常是你试图卖出股票时的策略。了解催化剂(Catalysts)也很重要。如果有财报(Earnings)发布，原始IV不再适用，因为股价可能大幅波动。财报期间的CCs策略完全不同。 4. CSP策略很好。如果你想用小账户大量操作，使用IBKR的投资组合保证金(Portfolio Margin)，这样你可以在很多股票上卖出大量深度虚值的看跌期权(Puts)。最大风险是你不知道自己在做什么，或者出现像今年早些时候全球突然加征20%关税导致市场崩盘这样的黑天鹅事件。我是从大量经验的角度说的，但新手可能会亏很多钱。IV规则同样适用。如果 $AMZN 通常每周波动+-5%，你可以卖出7% OTM的看跌期权，很可能每周获利。财报策略又是另一回事。解释起来很花时间，但也极其盈利。很多人持有$1M+资金，通过“更安全”的CSP或定投(DCA)每周被动赚取$10k。每季度财报周能赚大钱，除非股票像 $TTD 那样暴跌40%。但总体而言，如果你想复利增长财富+现有资产，学习这些很重要。 期权卖方策略是极佳的“房地产”（指卖出CCs或极深度虚值看跌期权），前提是你懂行且操作于 $IIBIT、$HOOD 等正规资产。否则风险巨大。总体上是给交易者很好的建议。只是我基于个人经验的一些想法和细微差别。
英文原文
So just to add to the discussion on learning option selling: 1. BROKERAGE IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT, NEVER USE $HOOD IF YOU HAVE A LARGE PORT. They claim it's free but it's probably one of the worst for option trading since they route your order to MMs and that's how they make money off of you by screwing your fills. Unless you're selling CC's CSP on Mag7/SPY with low spread, then use $IBKR for order execution since they give you the best fill even if you sell for the lowest price. It looks like you're losing a few dollars but .2 -.4 per contract on execution makes thousands of dollars of a difference. 2. If you're a smaller account, I'd recommend margin instead of 2x leveraged ETFs because of volatility decay. (you can use google to learn why you don't hold 2x leveraged ETFs for more than a short time). You have liquidation risks if you use margin but it's still better than leveraged ETFs. Think they pointed it out already in the post 3. Learn IV of stocks. Eg. Hood probably doesn't go up and down more than 4-6% a day normally. NBIS probably doesn't move more than 7% a day. TSM doesn't really move 4%+ a day. If you're selling CCs 4 days out like on NBIS, 6*4 for example, selling 24%+ OTM for like $130 if it's $107 is usually smart and profitable. If you sell CCs for like $110, you're asking for your stock to be called away and it's usually a strategy when you try and sell it. It's also important to learn catalysts. If there's an earnings coming up the original IV doesn't apply anymore since it could swing a lot higher or lower. Earnings CCs is completely different. 4. CSP is good. If you want to do a lot of this with a small account use IBKR portfolio margin, that way you can write a sell a ton of puts way OTM on a lot of stocks. Biggest risk is either you don't know what you're doing, or there's some black swan event like random 20% tarrifs on the world crashing the market earlier on in the year. Again I'm saying this from the perspective of tons of experience, but a newcomer might lose a lot of money. Same rule for IV applies. If AMZN is usually +-5% a week, you can sell PUTS 7% OTM and likely profit every week. Earnings again is a whole new strategy. it will probably take me a whole lot of time to explain this but it's extremely profitable too. A lot of people just sit on $1M+ and make like $10k a week passively doing "safer" CSPs or DCAing into positions. And earnings week every quarter is an insane amount of money. Unless a stock gets nuked like how TTD tanked 40%. But generally important to learn if you want to compound your wealth + existing assets. Option selling is great real estate (for selling CCs, or extremely OTM put selling) ONLY if you know what you're doing + do it on legitimate assets like IIBIT, HOOD. Otherwise there's tons of risks involved. Generally great advice overall for traders to learn. Just my thoughts and nuances to the lesson from personal experience.
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建议在反弹时进行再平衡和获利了结。
@mattia030339 @soulbiri1 在反弹行情中进行再平衡(Rebalancing)和获利了结(profit taking)是明智之举。
英文原文
@mattia030339 @soulbiri1 Rebalancing and profit taking on rallys is smart
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建议直接加杠杆买入资产，除非控股公司有放贷等增值用途。
@4clout 如果你想的话，直接加杠杆买入实际资产即可。在我看来，除非控股公司(holding companies)能利用这些资产做点什么，比如通过放贷获利，否则持有它们毫无意义。
英文原文
@4clout Just buy the actual asset on leverage if you want, imo no point of doing holding companies unless they're doing something with it like making profits from lending.
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批评付费喊单骗局，强调真交易者靠市场获利而非粉丝。
我在 X 上看到这个真的快疯了。真正的交易者永远是从市场本身获利，而不是从他们的粉丝身上获利。你能得到的最好建议就是 X 上免费的独立研究(DD)，或者是那些随机发帖人分享关于 $NBIS / $IREN 的内容。而不是那些 🤡 搞“第69波”XYZ $BMNR 图表分析喊单 $20 的人。
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I'm actually losing my mind seeing this on X. Real traders will always make money off the markets. Not off their followers. The best advice you will ever get is free DD on X, or posts coming from randoms dropping $NBIS / $IREN. Not 🤡 Wave 69 XYZ $BMNR charting for $20. https://t.co/fk59TOa3yN
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建议新手投资ETF，避免个股风险，注重长期复利。
@Eddbagley2 是的，如果你是股票投资的新手，我推荐像 $QQQ 这样的 ETF。我有个刚接触股票的朋友买了 $FIG 的 IPO，结果几周就亏了60%。这比大家想的要难，所以还是让财富随时间复利增长吧。
英文原文
@Eddbagley2 Yeah I recommend ETFs like $QQQ if you completely new to stock investing. My friend who was new to stocks bought $FIG's IPO and lost 60% of their portfolio in a few weeks. It's harder than what people think, so just compound your net worth over time.
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作者强调需花1-2小时深入研究CIFR，暂不盲目逢低买入。
@__visionxry__ @pepemoonboy 哈哈，抱歉在我最近的帖子中“曝光”了你们，我只是在开玩笑。 我需要做更多关于 $CIFR 的研究，我对这家公司的了解还不够，现在还不能大喊“逢低买入”。 通常这需要我花上一两个小时去研究。
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@__visionxry__ @pepemoonboy lol sorry for outing you in my most recent post, i'm just joking I need to do more research into CIFR, I don't know enough about the company to be screaming buy the dip right now. Usually takes me an hour or two to look into it
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博主展示1000万高风险迷因组合，探讨极致收益与归零风险。
很多粉丝来自WSB（华尔街梗），没有风险过滤机制。如果我要用1000万美元为Reddit构建一个“迷因组合”以尝试最大化利润： 期权 $NBIS 3月20日 $130看涨期权 500万美元 AMZN 3月20日 $225看涨期权 200万美元 RUT 12月19日 $2400看涨期权 50万美元 2倍杠杆 $IREN 100万美元 $CIFR 100万美元 HIMS 50万美元 显然不推荐这样做，但如果我今天真的想尝试赚取1000%的收益，我会按当前价格这样操作。 如果你有1000万，好奇你会做什么风险博弈来换取豪宅还是温迪的垃圾桶。
英文原文
Lot of followers were from WSB with no risk-filter. If I had to build a meme-port for Reddit with $10m to try and maximize profit: Options $5M $NBIS Mar 20, $130 Call $2M AMZN Mar 20 $225 Call $500k RUT Dec 19 $2400 Call 2x Leverage $1M $IREN $1M $CIFR $500k HIMS Obviously not recommending this, but if I legitimately wanted to try and make 1000% I'd do this as of today's prices. If you had 10M, curious what risk-play you would do for a mansion vs. Wendys Dumpster.
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50万美金组合应集中高确信度持仓，风险等级不同需审慎。
@TheLongAJ 同样的逻辑适用于50万美元的投资组合，只需按比例增加高确信度股票的权重，并剔除如 $NVO 或 $BITF 等持仓以集中加仓你偏好的标的，如果你愿意承担更多成长/风险的话。 我只是说风险等级不同，如果我的朋友亏钱我会感觉非常糟糕。
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@TheLongAJ Same thesis applies with a $500k portfolio, just scale up weightings for conviction, and remove some like $NVO or $BITF to scale up the ones you like if you want to take on more growth/risk. I'm just saying risk level is different, I'd feel really bad if my friend lost money.
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建议通过调仓或持有现金对冲，指出当前小盘股行情源于降息宏观环境。
@MilesTa53993799 一个好的对冲策略是调整资产权重或将30%仓位变现为现金。目前小盘股/成长股占比高的唯一原因是由于三次降息带来的宏观环境。否则，权重会更倾向于 $UNH 和防御性公司。
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@MilesTa53993799 A good hedge is changing the weighting of the assets or sell 30% to cash. Only reason why there's so much small cap/growth right now is macro environment because of triple rate cut. Otherwise weighting would be more toward $UNH and defensive companies.
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分享构建 ETF 示例，指出小盘股可互换。
@MMerrino569447 这只是我为他人构建的推荐 ETF 的一个示例。如果你想的话，可以将像 $GRRR 这样的小盘股换成 $ABAT，其实并不重要。
英文原文
@MMerrino569447 This is just an example of a recommended ETF I'd build for someone else. You can switch a small cap like $GRRR for $ABAT if you wanted, doesn't really matter.
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强调投资小盘股时的风险管理，避免过度集中持仓。
@Dylanwith86 没问题，当我发布诸如将5万美元投入随机小盘股的内容时，我不希望大家误以为我会半仓操作，从而也将自己投资组合的过大比例分配给它们。风险管理真的非常重要。当然，当你有强烈信念时，可以调整权重。
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@Dylanwith86 No problem, when I post stuff like throwing $50k into random small caps, I don't want people to think I'm half porting then allocate way too much of their portfolio into them too. Risk management is really important. Of course when you have conviction, change the weighting.
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正确解读期权流比关注对冲基金的恐慌抛售更重要。
@LibertadEterno 是的，对冲基金( Hedge Funds )总是恐慌性抛售。没错，如果你能正确解读，期权流( Option Flow )要重要得多。
英文原文
@LibertadEterno Yeah hedge funds panic sell all the time. Yep, option flow is a lot more important if you can interpret it correctly.
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建议关注远期营收指标
@stone_maison_ 看看远期营收(Forward Revenue)
英文原文
@stone_maison_ Look at forward revenue
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投资核心在于发现市场错误定价，具体决策需自行研判。
没问题！不过，最大的获利机会在于你认为市场错误定价了某样东西，而你对此持有坚定的相反信念。比如对我来说，当 $UPWK 的市盈率(P/E)仅为7或更低时，市场就低估了它。由于财务报表可能非常复杂，我了解得不够多，无法给你确切答案，这需要你自己决定。
英文原文
No problem! The most money to be made though is if you think the market prices something wrong and you have conviction otherwise. Like for me market was underpricing $UPWK when it was a p/e of 7 or something low. I don't know enough to give you an answer since financials are probably really complicated, that's for you to decide.