· 方法论
涉及标的： $AMZN$CIFR$GOOGL$IBIT$IREN$TSM
我在这里打破了自己关于只买正股而非看涨期权(call)的经验法则——32%的隐含波动率(IV)股票，但通常如果发生黑天鹅事件导致无关紧要的下跌，例如 $IREN 因摩根大通(JPM)糟糕的目标价下跌14%。或者 $CIFR 下跌17%后仅因 $GOOGL 的支撑而下跌5%，这时我会转向看涨期权。通常如果我认为触底了，或者认为像 $TSM $AMZN 这样的股票会在几个月内上涨，且我在定投(DCA)，且IV没有偏离32%太多且不至于糟糕，我会考虑使用期权。当然也有例外，比如 $IBIT 高IV时跳入周度备兑看涨期权(covered calls)，但那是另一种策略。不过，抄底时机极难把握。
I broke my own rule of thumb here about shares only vs. call -> 32% IV stock but usually if something black swans off something immaterial eg. $IREN 14% drop off JPM bs price target. Or $CIFR 17% drop into 5% drop off $GOOGL backstopping it, then I switch to calls. Usually if I think it's a bottom or if I think a stock would go up like $TSM $AMZN over a few months and I'm DCA and IV isn't way off 32% and horrendous I'd consider it. There's exceptions obviously like $IBIT with higher IV leaps into weekly covered calls but that's another strategy. Bottom timing is extremely hard though