全部推文
共 6413 条 · 第 135 / 214 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
博主感谢网友纠正，确认高通为正确标的。
@canbilgeyilmaz 是的，高通(Qualcomm) ($QCOM) 才是正确的股票代码，感谢纠正。我刚才只是凭直觉随口一说，觉得之前的那个看起来更合乎逻辑。
英文原文
@canbilgeyilmaz Yeah Qualcomm ( $QCOM ), was the right ticker thanks for the correction. Was just going off the top of my head, and the former seemed logical.
-
年初至今收益超100%，但软件及比特币股拖累组合。
@vivekmehtagyat 年初至今(YTD)收益已超过100%（感谢日本和韩国市场）。不过，像 $RDDT 这样的软件股以及比特币相关公司最近让我的投资组合遭受重创。
英文原文
@vivekmehtagyat Over 100%+ YTD so far (thank you Japan and Korea) Software like $RDDT and Bitcoin related companies have been nuking my portfolio recently though.
-
AXTI为光子学最上游标的，ETF映射Semivision所述中游瓶颈。
@cronked $AXTI 是我的个人最爱，但它在光子学领域已经处于最上游了。上面的 ETF 只是将瓶颈名称映射到 Semivision 描述的主要瓶颈上，而这些瓶颈更多涉及中游公司。
英文原文
@cronked $AXTI is my personal favorite but it’s as upstream as you can go for photonics. The ETF above is just bottleneck name mapping to what Semivision described as their top bottlenecks, which were more midstream companies.
-
LPTH是国防锗瓶颈，短期受板块拖累，长期受益于供应链转移。
$LPTH 主要是国防领域的锗瓶颈。它似乎更多是从中国供应链向美国黑钻（Black Diamond）过渡的长期受益者。 它在算法上与国防板块挂钩（近期因缺乏催化剂，从 $ONDS 到 $AVAV 均下跌）。如果美国入侵伊朗，该交易可能会再次火热。 不太可能看到像 $GOOGL 和 $AMZN 资本支出带来的半导体供应链瓶颈那样巨大的短期飙升。或者像 $AXTI 因光子学应用可能看到的瓶颈+涨价。 但从 Andruil、$NOC、$ONDS 等来看，长期应有增量收入。
英文原文
$LPTH is germanium bottleneck mainly for defense. It seems more of a long term beneficiary from transition from China supply chains to US black diamond. And it’s algorithmically tied to defense sector (which is down recently, from $ONDS to $AVAV due to a lack of catalysts). If US invades Iran the trade is probably going to be hot again. Not likely going to see that massive short term spike that semi supply chain bottlenecks do from the $GOOGL and $AMZN capex spend. Or bottleneck + price hikes that $AXTI might see from photonics usage. But long term from Andruil, $NOC, $ONDS and others should be incremental revenue
-
回应质疑，指出相关标的年初至今涨幅更高，承认短期样本局限。
@HimotheeBuckets 其中许多从 $GLW 到 $CAMT 的年初至今(YTD)涨幅甚至更高。 但我确实同意，1 周的样本不足以作为整体趋势的最决定性证据。 这恰好是我发帖后跟踪的表现。 https://t.co/SL7UoWij9E
英文原文
@HimotheeBuckets The YTD on many of these from $GLW to $CAMT is even higher. But I do agree that 1 week sample isn’t the most definitive of overall trends. This just happened to be tracking performance after I posted. https://t.co/SL7UoWij9E
-
供应链瓶颈等权重组合周涨12.83%，全红表现惊人。
基于供应链映射的“瓶颈ETF”。 没有一只股票是红色的（下跌）。 等权重组合1周收益：+12.83%。 名单： $LITE: +31.68% $AMKR: +28.7% Disco: +24.35% $GLW: +23.57% $COHR: +23.5% $ONTO: +18.4% $CAMT: +17.7% $TSM: +15.8% $ON: +15.8% Samsung: +15.4% $KLAC: +12.7% $APH: +11.6% $MRVL: +11.4% $MU: +10.6% $MOD: +10.6% Sk Hynix: +10.31% $VICR: +9.6% $AVGO: +9.46% $SBGSY: +9.27% $ETN: +9.1% $BESIY: +8.53% $IFNNY: +7.37% $MPWR: +6.85% $SNDK: +6.4% $QLCM: +6.12% $AMD: +6.01% Mediatek: +6% Kioxia: +3.68% $INTC: +1.62% 我觉得机构是不是直接把上周框架里的这份名单全买了？ 这种表现水平简直太疯狂了。
英文原文
The "Bottleneck ETF" from supply chain mapping. Not a single name red. Equal weighted results 1W: +12.83%. List: $LITE: +31.68% $AMKR: +28.7% Disco: +24.35% $GLW: +23.57% $COHR: +23.5% $ONTO: +18.4% $CAMT: +17.7% $TSM: +15.8% $ON: +15.8% Samsung: +15.4% $KLAC: +12.7% $APH: +11.6% $MRVL: +11.4% $MU: +10.6% $MOD: +10.6% Sk Hynix: +10.31% $VICR: +9.6% $AVGO: +9.46% $SBGSY: +9.27% $ETN: +9.1% $BESIY: +8.53% $IFNNY: +7.37% $MPWR: +6.85% $SNDK: +6.4% $QLCM: +6.12% $AMD: +6.01% Mediatek: +6% Kioxia: +3.68% $INTC: +1.62% I feel like institutions just bought this entire list from last week's framework? This level of performance is pretty crazy.
-
市场抛售软件股，比特币亦被视为被AI颠覆的软件公司。
@Gubloinvestor 祝 $U 好运，市场正在抛售任何软件类资产。显然，比特币也被视为一家被 AI 颠覆的软件公司。
英文原文
@Gubloinvestor Good luck with $U, market sells off anything software. Apparently Bitcoin is a software company disrupted by AI too.
-
看好$U回调机会，认为AI辅助而非取代$FIG设计。
自关注4D物理AI+世界模型(World Models)供应链以来，我一直在跟踪$U。 我认为他们并非纯粹的游戏公司。我认为-30%的跌幅是市场在提示我建立一些头寸。 同意。对于$FIG等公司，AI只是帮助将Figma设计转化为HTML/CSS/JS等代码，而非取代它。
英文原文
I’ve been following $U since looking at 4D physical AI + World Models supply chains. Don’t think they’re purely gaming related. I think the -30% drop is the world telling me to enter some positions. And agreed. With others like $FIG, AI just helps translate the Figma designs into stuff like HTML/CSS/JS rather than replacing it.
-
质疑 $U 因微小业绩不及预期暴跌，批评市场对 AI 软件股的非理性恐慌。
很抱歉，但 $U 营收指引仅低于预期 0.8%……股价却暴跌 34%？ 看到市场因为一家公司做软件业务，就在 AI 领域非理性恐慌，这很有趣。 https://t.co/WWsgjvyjYb
英文原文
I’m sorry but did $U just miss revenue guidance by -.8%… then drop 34%? It’s interesting to see markets irrationally panicking from AI if a company does software. https://t.co/WWsgjvyjYb
-
Reddit 业绩超预期却暴跌，作者认为其网络效应难被 AI 颠覆，是错杀机会。
-41.96% 的暴跌发生在 $RDDT 上，尽管它全面超预期且同比增长 70%，净利率达 35%，这太疯狂了。 你无法通过“氛围编程(vibecode)”来复制 Reddit 的网络效应。你也无法用与 ChatGPT 对话来取代超级碗(Super Bowl)帖子中的人性元素。 这可能是我近期在“实际上未被 AI 颠覆”类别中看到的最佳机会。 但确实，算法(algos)在疯狂做空。
英文原文
-41.96% crash on $RDDT for beating all estimates and growing 70% Y/Y off 35% net income margins is wild. You can’t vibecode the network effect Reddit has. And you can’t defeat the human element for Super Bowl threads by talking with ChatGPT. Probably best opportunity I’ve seen in awhile from the “not actually disrupted by AI” bucket. But yeah algos go brrr
-
Reddit被错杀，高毛利轻资产模式使其极具投资价值。
我觉得 $RDDT 被错误地归入那些会被 AI 颠覆的“软件”类股票中。然后当 Reddit 状况良好时，它却跟着一起被抛售。我不认为你还能再看到一家中型市值公司实现 70% 的同比增长、91.5% 的毛利率以及约 27-30 倍的前瞻市盈率（Forward P/E）。而且他们的前瞻预估增长率约为 54%。他们 35% 的收入是净利润，这太离谱了。上个季度授权收入仅占总收入的 5%（几乎可以忽略不计），而且很可能只会增加。由于业务模式如此轻量化，收入增长直接转化为底线利润。在 141 美元价位，Reddit 就是一台印钞机。
英文原文
I feel like $RDDT gets added to the “software” names that gets disrupted by AI bucket by mistake. Then gets sold off together when Reddit is fine. Don’t think you’ll ever see a mid cap company growing 70% y/y, 91.5% gross margin, ~27-30 forward p/e again. And they’re forward estimates are ~54% 35% of their revenue is net income, which is absurd. Licensing revenue was 5% of total revenue (almost nonfactor) last quarter and is likely to only go up. Revenue increases just hit the bottom line since it’s so lightweight. Reddit is a money printer at $141.
-
ALMU表现优异，暗示可能找到了市场制胜秘诀。
@crux_capital_ $ALMU 表现也不错。也许我们找到了市场的“作弊码”。https://t.co/1xCMTl5tkf
英文原文
@crux_capital_ $ALMU has done well as well. Maybe we’ve found the cheat code to markets. https://t.co/1xCMTl5tkf
-
A开头半导体股因订单与瓶颈大涨，暗示供应链瓶颈改善。
哇…… $AEHR 今日因超大规模云服务商订单上涨30%+。 $ACMR 本周因中国存储（长鑫存储+长江存储）上涨29%。 $AXTI 本周因光子学(CPO)产能爬坡及谷歌资本支出上涨42%。 $AMKR 本周因先进封装瓶颈上涨19%。 也许以字母A开头的瓶颈是个好兆头？
英文原文
Wow… $AEHR up 30%+ today on hyperscaler orders. $ACMR up 29% this week on China memory (cmxt + ymtc) $AXTI up 42% this week on photonics ramp and Google capex spend $AMKR up 19% this week w/ advanced packaging bottlenecks. Maybe the bottlenecks starting with letter A are a good sign?
-
VPG单月获百万美元订单，体量达此前总和三分之一，前景看涨。
@savelikameisha 谢谢，我在电话会议期间睡着了 lol。如果那是后续订单，$VPG 在 1 个月内获得 $1M 的订单实际上是非常看涨的。直到 10 月，他们的总订单流为 $3.6M，而基本上他们在 1 个月内就获得了其中 1/3 的体量。
英文原文
@savelikameisha Thanks, I fell asleep during the call lol. $1M order in 1 month is actually really bullish for $VPG if that’s a follow-on order. Their entire order flow was $3.6M up until Oct and they got 1/3rd that volume in 1 month basically
-
VPG获Optimus大额订单，看好其未来量产预期。
对于 $VPG 来说，这实际上非常有前景：2026年1月为100万美元，这是其后续订单（可能每个机器人500美元，即2000台）。根据你们的数据，直到10月他们的总订单流为360万美元，而单月就达到了其总量的1/3.6。鉴于我们现在知道 Optimus 将在今年晚些时候加速量产，我对未来的预测比过去的预测更感兴趣。
英文原文
For $VPG that’s actually really promising it’s $1m for January 2026 and that’s its follow up (maybe $500/humanoid, so 2K units) Their entire order flow was $3.6M up until October and they got 1/3.6th their volume in one month from your numbers I’d be more curious about future projections rather than previous ones since now we know Optimus is ramping up later in the year.
-
VPG财报数据次要，人形机器人订单及冻结风险才是关键。
@mholz315 是的，每股收益(ER)数据只是噪音，最重要的是$VPG CEO在电话会议中提到的关于那3780万美元人形机器人订单及潜在冻结的情况。
英文原文
@mholz315 Yeah the ER figures are just noise, most important thing is what the $VPG CEO mentions during the call regarding humanoid orders of that $37.8M and potential freezes.
-
3700万超预期利好产能爬坡，待VPG会议澄清。
@mholz315 那个3700万美元的数字是多方面的，不仅仅是像Optimus这样的人形机器人。但由于这是一个强劲的超预期表现，这对产能爬坡(ramp)是一个积极的信号。 正如你提到的，现在最重要的是在$VPG电话会议上得到澄清。
英文原文
@mholz315 That $37M figure is multifaceted, it's not purely humanoids like Optimus. But it's a positive tell for ramp since it was a strong beat. As you mentioned, most important thing is clarification on the $VPG call now.
-
$VPG财报营收超预期但EPS不及预期，人形机器人业务强劲增长被市场误读。
$VPG 发布了财报。简而言之： 营收：8060万美元 vs. 共识预期：约7810万美元（超预期） 调整后每股收益(EPS)：0.07美元 vs. 共识预期：约0.20-0.21美元（不及预期） 毛利率：降至36.8%（去年同期为38.2%）——主要受外汇等一次性因素影响。 值得关注点： 人形机器人板块——其2025全年目标是从“战略增长计划”（机器人、先进传感器）中预订3000万美元订单。 实际：3780万美元——这一预测被大幅超越，超出近800万美元。 其他产品有很多噪音，市场主要应关注人形机器人的增长，看起来正在加速。 当然，这3780万美元的数据是多方面的。 没什么太惊人的，但简而言之： 传统业务（钢铁、称重等）：平均在增长 新业务（人形机器人）：正在快速增长 市场对此反应错误，因为$VPG未来最看涨的板块是人形机器人，且看起来正在加速。 除此之外，虽然不算爆发式增长，但对于强劲的机器人板块超预期是积极的，我将等待电话会议以获取与人形机器人相关的问题解答。
英文原文
$VPG reported earnings. TLDR: Revenue: $80.6 Million vs. Consensus: ~$78.1 Million (BEAT) Adjusted EPS: $0.07 vs. Consensus: ~$0.20 - $0.21 (MISS) Gross Margin: Fell to 36.8% (down from 38.2% a year ago) - mainly one off like FX. What to look out for: Humanoid section - Their goal for the full year 2025 was to book $30 million in orders from "Strategic Growth Initiatives" (Robots, Advanced Sensors). Actual: $37.8 million - They crushed this projection by nearly $8 million. There’s a lot of noise from other products, main thing markets should be looking out for is humanoid growth, which looks to be ramping up. Of course that $37.8M number is multifaceted. Nothing too amazing but tldr: Legacy Business (Steel, weighing, etc.): Is growing on average New Business (humanoids): Is growing rapidly Markets are taking this the wrong way since the most bullish segment going forward for $VPG is humanoids, and it looks to be ramping up. That aside, not exactly a blowout but positive for strong robotics segment beat, will wait for conference call for humanoids related questions.
-
博主回忆通过利用两种代币间的转换机制获利。
@0xleegenz 我记得那个讽刺性的事件！我是少数几个从中获利的人之一，因为当时有两种不同的代币（大理石之类的），我记得找到了一种在两者之间转换的方法。这很有趣，因为没人能卖出主要代币。
英文原文
@0xleegenz I remember that ironic one! I was one of the few people that made money off that because there was two different tokens (marbles or something) and I remember finding out a way to convert between the two. Was interesting cause nobody could sell the main token.
-
HOOD财报后牛市或终结，短期震荡，需靠国际化或发币破局。
在财报发布后，我开始感觉 $HOOD 的牛市周期已经结束。 我不认为它会崩盘，但可能会在一段时间内保持区间震荡。 看到营收同比增速放缓至 27%，而在 800 亿美元市值下，远期 35 倍市盈率 (P/E) 的估值可能会膨胀至 45-50 倍以上。 这种增长部分是通过收购（例如收购 Bitstamp）买来的，而不是像过去那样通过新功能变现实现的。 长期来看它仍有潜力，但短期面临太多逆风。 唯一的慰藉是加密市场正在复苏。 或者 - 尽快进行国际股票扩张（$IBKR 正在大量吸纳资金流，因为投资者希望配置日本或韩国等其他国家的市场） - 在其新区块链上推出代币，以便像 BNB 和币安那样增加资产负债表规模。 以及其他一些想法等。 我不认为依赖预测市场 (prediction markets) 是正确的选择。为了短期利益这样做，形象 (optics) 肯定很差。
英文原文
Starting to feel like the bull cycle is over for $HOOD after their earnings. I don’t think it’s going to crash, but likely stay rangebound for awhile. Seeing revenue deceleration to 27% y/y and forward 35 p/e estimates possibly balloon to 45-50+ at a $80B MC. That growth was partially bought as well (eg. Bitstamp acquisition) rather than new feature monetization like they’ve done in the past. Long term it still has potential but short term too many headwinds. The saving grace is crypto market recovering. Or - International stock expansion ASAP ( $IBKR is eating up a ton of inflows as investors want exposure to other countries like Japan or Korea) - Token launch on their new blockchain, so they can bump up balance sheets like BNB and Binance. With some other ideas, etc. Don’t think relying on prediction markets is the right choice to go down. It’s definitely a bad optics for short term gain.
-
Reddit用户去社区是为了看股票观点和赛事讨论，而非问AI能答的问题。
@Darkhawk720 @number1invest_ 你真的认为人们去 $RDDT 是为了问那些能被 AI 回答的问题吗？不。你去是为了看 WSB 上备受推崇的股票观点，或是看人们对超级碗或英雄联盟比赛的反应/讨论。
英文原文
@Darkhawk720 @number1invest_ Do you genuinely think people go to $RDDT to get ask questions that can get answered by AI? No. You go for regarded takes on stocks on WSB or to see other reactions/discussions from people about the superbowl or league of legends games.
-
《清晰法案》将重创加密货币，利好美元
@FinanceLancelot 这位家伙还将通过《清晰法案》(Clarity Act) 让每一种加密货币崩溃。 对美元有利，对其它一切不利
英文原文
@FinanceLancelot The guy is going to collapse every single crypto currency as well with the Clarity Act. Good for the dollar, bad for everything else
-
持有RDDT多头，因看涨期权IV过高而不看好期权交易。
@number1invest_ 我只是持有 $RDDT 的多头头寸。Reddit 看涨期权（Calls）的隐含波动率（Implied Volatility, IV）真的很高，所以我不太看好。
英文原文
@number1invest_ I’m just long $RDDT shares. IV is really high for Reddit calls so not a fan.
-
认为LITE长期价值未完全定价，短期涨幅已大。
@mhayavkay 你意识到很多产能爬坡(ramp)发生在2028年吗？ 对于像 $LITE 这样占 Google TPU BOM 约 8-12% 的公司，我认为其长期价值尚未完全反映在股价中（短期已反映，过去一个月已上涨 70%）。https://t.co/ZFfhiLTrXI
英文原文
@mhayavkay You do realize a lot of the ramp happens 2028 right? For stuff like $LITE which is ~8-12 of Google TPU BOM, I don't quite think it's priced in long term yet (short term yes, it rallied 70% 1M). https://t.co/ZFfhiLTrXI
-
建议散户简化策略，聚焦核心标的如台积电，而非追踪复杂上游瓶颈。
对于绝大多数散户而言： 如果你想搭乘当前资本支出(capex)趋势的快车，我认为以下这些是必须持有的标的： 1. 存储(Memory) - $MU, 三星, 海力士, $SNDK 2. 光子学(Photonics) - $LITE, $COHR 3. CoWoS/晶圆代工(Foundry)/先进封装(Advanced Packaging) - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC 随着向产业链上游深入，存在许多细微的瓶颈环节，例如我常提到的： 光子学的基板/原料层面的 $AXTI，共封装光学(CPO)中ELS领域的利基玩家如 $AAOI，良率相关的 $TER 或 $AEHR，硅光(SiPh)领域的 $TSEM。甚至是数据中心中从日月光(unimicron)到其他厂商的基板铜用量。 我的观点是，对于绝大多数(99%)的人来说，你可以选择“简单模式”生活，无需追踪 X 上的每日更新或 $AMKR 的资本支出流向。 只需关闭大脑中关于供应链映射/更新的部分，坚持持有像 $TSM 这样处于核心地位的标的，有时是更好的选择。 它很可能也会跑赢大部分上游玩家。
英文原文
For the vast majority of retail: If you want to ride the capex trends happening right now, these are probably must have imo: 1. Memory - $MU, Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK 2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR 3. CoWoS/Foundry/Advanced Packaging - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC There's a lot of nuanced bottlenecks as you go upstream I talk about like : $AXTI in the substrate/feedstock level for photonics, random niche players like $AAOI for ELS in CPO. $TER or $AEHR for yields, or $TSEM for SiPh. Or even copper usage in DCs to substrates from unimicron to others. My opinion is that for the vast 99% of people, you can live life on easy mode without tracking day-to-day updates on X or where the capex spend from $AMKR goes. Just turning your brain off from all the supply chain mapping / updates, then just sticking with things like $TSM which is the center of it all is sometimes the better thing to do. It probably outperforms a large percentage of the upstream players as well.
-
反驳媒体观点，指出三星扩产HBM4不影响SanDisk的NAND业务。
如果非要简化来说。三星和 $SNDK 都是“农夫”。三星想种牛油果（HBM4）。他们把一半的农田用来生产更高价的牛油果。$SNDK 表示他们将继续种植玉米（NAND）。三星卖出更多牛油果并不会影响玉米市场。事实上，这甚至可能让玉米更贵。所以媒体说因为三星要做牛油果导致 SanDisk 下跌，这毫无道理。
英文原文
If I had to try and make it simpler. Samsung and $SNDK are both farmers. Samsung wants to farm avocados (HBM4). They dedicate half their farmland to make produce higher priced avocados. $SNDK says they're going to keep growing corn (NAND). Samsung selling more avocados does not affect the corn market. In fact it might even make it more expensive. So all the media saying Sandisk is dropping because Samsung wants to make avocados makes no sense.
-
博主以幽默方式回应关于RDDT和WSB的关注。
@platochi @karlfugs $RDDT 和 WSB 被视为（被关注/被认可），但这正是我那种“被视为”的方式。
英文原文
@platochi @karlfugs $RDDT and WSB is regarded but it’s my type of regarded
-
博主调侃对方需先理解摆动交易概念。
@karlfugs 等你搞懂什么是摆动交易(swing trading)时告诉我。 https://t.co/sCyPnr6VTf
英文原文
@karlfugs Tell me when you learn what swing trading is. https://t.co/sCyPnr6VTf
-
博主澄清自己是波段交易员，当前操作为新开仓。
@karlfugs 你难道不知道我是一名波段交易员(swing trader)吗？这是一个新头寸(new position)。https://t.co/Kaub4TrEWK
英文原文
@karlfugs You do realize I'm a swing trader right? This is a new position. https://t.co/Kaub4TrEWK
-
Reddit财报亮眼且具网络效应，优于面临逆风的HOOD/HIMS。
持有 $RDDT 第1天：+5.83%。 Reddit 正在快速增长，同比增长50%+（本季度同比增长70%），且净利润是其收入的1/3。 毛利率高达91%，这高得离谱。 令我惊讶的是，更多 $HOOD 或 $HIMS 的持有者在财报后看到收入减速或受到冲击，却没有进行调仓。 其他公司面临的是实际的结构性收入逆风，而 Reddit 只是来自 AI 颠覆的噪音。
英文原文
Day 1 of holding $RDDT: +5.83%. Reddit is growing rapidly 50%+ Y/Y (grew 70% Y/Y this quarter) and net income is 1/3rd their revenue. Gross margins are 91%, which is absurdly high. Surprised more $HOOD or $HIMS holders after earnings are not pivoting after seeing revenue deceleration or disruption. You have actual structural headwinds for revenue for other companies while Reddit is just noise from AI disruption.